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Temperatures and What They Mean 40 Californians shiver uncontrollably, Minnesotans go swimming. 35 Italian cars don't start. 32 Water freezes. 30 You can see your breath. Politicians begin to worry about the Homeless. 25 Boston water freezes. Cat insists on sleeping on your bed with you. 20 Californians weep pitiably, Minnesotans eat ice cream. You can hear your breath. 15 N.Y. City water freezes. Politicians begin to talk aobut the homeless. 12 You plan a vacation to Mexico. 10 Too cold to snow 5 You need jumper cables to get the car going. Cat insists on sleeping in your bed with you. 3 You plan a vacation in Houston. 0 Too cold to skate. American cars don't start. -5 You can cut your breath and use it to build an igloo. -10 Too cold to think. Politicians actually do something about the homeless. -15 Cat insists on sleeping in your pajamas with you. You need jumper cables to get the driver going. -20 You plan a 2-week hot bath. -25 The mighty Monongahela freezes. Japanese cars don't start. -30 Californians disappear, Minnesotans button top button...
Below -30 The kids call home from college. End of the world...

looking forward to the weathercast. Im thinking and average of 5 inches across the area with 4 up north and as much as 7 down south.

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That would certainly be something very different from what has happened so far this season. 

Gary

could the south really see as much as 7 inches. that would see a sight to see. LS could really use the snow.

7 inches would be awsome, but I highly doubt gary will come on at 10 and goe that  high, but he might surprise us, you never know

I used to prefer the NOGAPS model until I found out the acronym stood for "No Good At Predicting Snow"  :/

one other weather station predicted NO SNOW AT ALL for anybody except the extreme southern areas of the metro. What are they looking at?!

Argh...

Then NAM is the NAM... the NGM and RUC are in agreement... and all three of those place the heaviest snow over Joplin / Springfield with KC maybe picking up 2" at most... I'm anxious to see if the GFS is going to be having it's "own" idea on this or if it agrees with the other 3 models. Given we have an Artic airmass over us, I would tend to agree with the NAM/NGM/RUC solution.

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These models have been the worst ones this season, so don't panic yet!

Gary

Im still in awe of todays storm.  I can not wait to see the time lapse.  1-4 and nothing more is the motto.  I suggested we change it to 1-4 and 4 more.  

I know we are to focus on weather here but I had to laugh about a forecast I caught a few minutes of last night.  The weather person thought they may be taking the 20% chance of snow out for Thursday.  I just thought how bizarre to have 2 complete opposite forecast.  I'm confused on how they could even think of taking the snow out of the forecast.

Final total was 1.5" Olathe North HS

Hopefully, the 0Z GFS will give US favorable amounts of snow.

Current wind chills in the MIDWEST core:
Rochester, MN -41F
Eau Claire, WI -33F
Mason City, IA -34F
Northern Plains:
Devils Lake, ND -54F earlier today.

Hi there!

My flight from Chicago made it's final approach to runway 19 at KCI today at just about 11:20 AM just as the storm was churning things up. What a ride! As usual the pilots were excellent, despite being buffeted by strong crosswinds, blowing snow, less then a mile visibility, and whiting out fast. By the time we pulled up to the gate we had a full scale blizzard no doubt about it.

Quite a welcome home from the relative warmth and lack of snow of Allentown P.A. I left at 6:00 AM.

The drive home?  Phew man. No fun!

Discussion for Thurs from the NWS 8:30PM report.
EYES THEN SHIFT TOWARD THURSDAY FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD FAVOR THE FAR SRN CWA INTO THE OZARKS FOR BEST
SNOWS GIVEN UPPER LOW TRACK ACROSS NRN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM FEATURES A CLASSIC DUAL FRONT STRUCTURE GOING FOR IT...WITH A
DEFINED INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX SURFACE
LOW ALL THE WAY TO THE IOWA BORDER. THIS SURFACE REFLECTION IS OFTEN
A GOOD INDICATOR OF STRONG DEFORMATION BANDING AND FRONTOGENESIS
ALOFT RELATED TO A DEEPENING TROWAL...AND COULD RESULT IN A
SECONDARY AREA OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. DAY SHIFT FORECAST
APPEARS TO HAVE THIS IDEA WELL HANDLED...AND WILL SEE WHAT THE 00Z
SOLUTIONS HAVE TO OFFER.

well I'm looking forward to the gfs run it will be one of the models to go with and the thinking of the LRC of course...I still think this storm is further north than advertised..

Addogg! that was completely hilarious!

haha I thought it was

Has the GFS come out yet?

Kristi

MrSteve said: Hi there!

My flight from Chicago made it's final approach to runway 19 at KCI today at just about 11:20 AM just as the storm was churning things up. What a ride! As usual the pilots were excellent, despite being buffeted by strong crosswinds, blowing snow, less then a mile visibility, and whiting out fast. By the time we pulled up to the gate we had a full scale blizzard no doubt about it.

********************

Sort of a front row seat and birds eye view. Doesn't get any better then that!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p48_048l.gif

GFS has the two snow band thing going on.

gfs should be rollin out now.

Well from the looks of the latest GFS there's still plenty of moisture.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p48_048s.gif

The bumpest airplane ride I ever took was the one I took from KCI to La Guardia in April 2003.  That was bumpy!  Fortunately, I was able to sleep for part of the flight.  I didn't have any motion sickness from it.

Kristi

Wow! What an amazing weather day here in Western KCK. Woke up this morning at 5:30 A.M. with temperatures sitting at 56 degrees, by 6:30 A.M. the Arctic front had moved through are area with strong North to Northwest Winds from 20-25 MPH with gusts as high as 36 MPH at that time. Snow started here in Western KCK around 9:30 A.M. and began to really increase in intensity as we headed toward the noon hour. Very difficult to get an accurate measurement but I would guess around .75 to 1 inch here at 130th and State Avenue. Lowest temp recorded on my Davis Vantage was 10.2 degrees and highest wind gust recorded was 47 MPH at 2:37 P.M. Currently I am sitting at 16.4 with a West wind at about 8 MPH.

As far as the warning/advisory talk that has occurred tonight…I personally think that the National Weather Service covered their bases just fine with the Wind Advisory that they issued late last night for today’s event. The main threat was the wind. Now while snow was blowing and drifting across portions of the area, it never did reach advisory or warning criteria according to their policies.  Like another blogger mentioned if you were up early this morning before the front came through it really looked like it has poured down rain last night as everything was soaked. So “flash freezing” looks to be the cause for most of the accidents across the metro area. I’m sure the visibility had something to do with it as well..

As for storm system on Thursday…I’ll go for a dusting across all of the forecast area…That’s my official prediction and I am sticking to it! But for real, at least a dusting metro wide…That way hopefully everyone will get at least that…and if you get more in your backyard..BONUS!

Have a great night everyone!

Bryan

f00dl3 great minds think alike.  Nice link!

two band show looks like most areas will see at least two inches..with more in other areas..

Question for those of you that are good with that model website...What is the best part to look at the

fine
coarse
medium

Let the snow fly!!!! Sure wish I didn't have to work Thursday and could just stay home and watch it snow...oh well.

Bryan, I use the four panel.

Bryan it depends on how big of a picture you want.  I rarely run the fine, but use the medium version, because I can make out enough details.

CentralOP2 - as I was looking at the various models, I wondered about that.

The current run looks good for the GFS.  I just am concerned a hair about the lift...

The RUC closes this thing off just due south of us further north than the NAM and SREF, more in agreement with the GFS.  More in line with the LRC.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+sa+am+48

Ok..you got your GFS run, Gary...it is all pretty for you.  Will you go for it?

Thanks for the information Scott and nastyweather.

The NAM is a model and I look at it....but it sure has not been with the program recently....I agree the GFS is trending the storm a further north, as most of the storms have done this winter....QPF also looks good for a 3" to 5" snowfall from St. Joe east to Chillicothe and points southward....just SW of KC, on the Kansas side, looks like a pretty heavy band maybe locally 6"+...am I looking at this right...just trying to learn to interpret the models and all the other stuff I really know nothing about yet....per the LRC the December 6 storm is Jan 29 give or take a day or so....hence Jan 31....I am not seeing the heavier snow in the MO ozarks, other than the lift and forcing possibly???

Awww...Gary, it was all set up for you.  And you gave us the 1-4 again.  Booo!

[just having some fun]

3-5 with some local heavier amounts.

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Scott,

How much different is 3-5 inches from 1-4 inches?  Think about what you are worrying about.  It would be like me saying we may get .10 to .40 inches of rain, and you are saying "no way, it will be .30" to .50".  Not much different.

There are still unanswered questions.

Gary

Gary, just wanted to repost my total in case it got lost in all of the comments earlier today. In Lenexa at 79th and Lackman we got a slid 2" of snow. Almost all of my measurements came in at or above 2", except for areas where the snow got blown away, and those were still above 1". Just curious, what do you consider the south side of the metro? Because on air you said the south side got less, when it seems we got more than KCI.

Can't wait for Thursday!!

David

gary, what happened to the narrowing of the bands?

adogg - re what Minnesotans do when it gets cold: your joke was funny, but it's grounded in truth -  the schools will be open in southeastern MN tomorrow, in spite of the NWS issuing a wind chill warning.  

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BELOW ZERO WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WIND
CHILLS OF 35 BELOW TO 40 BELOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS AND HIGH TERRAIN.

A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

Gary,
Our satellite has been down for three days now and it's driving me crazy missing the weather!  Lucky for me we have the blog to stay updated.  I'm looking forward to seeing what happens on Thursday.  A friend of mine wanted me to ask if you ever check to see what ADONIS says.
Have a good one!

Dwx...   I think Gary showed that totals were all over the place.   Olathe had 2" while OP had .5 and the Plaza had 1.5".    2" was pretty common up north

I dont blame you Gary for holding off 1 more day to give totals.   What is the point, its going to snow and its still 36hrs out.    Much can change in a day.

lets all agree on one thing , its going to snow on thursday,its bitter cold right now ,its the midwest a tough place to forecast

NASA SAYS THAT CHANGES IN SUN'S SURFACE WILL BRING NEXT CLIMATE CHANGE!

http://redicecreations.com/article.php?id=2659


G.W. is now out!!! No more Questions!!!

I am going to change my snow amount and say close to two inches of snow in Marceline...WOW!!!!.....What a day....It was 53 this morning before I left for school, and at 12:30 I checked the temp andit was 17 degrees with a wind chill of -7....It was like a blizzard out there and was cool to watch from INDOORS...I wonder how cold it would be if the temperatures this morning were down in the lower 30s or twenties and that cold front went through....BURRR!!!!!.....lol

Gary

From what I am seeing, the NAM is really showing a stron southerly pattern to this storm.  There is plenty of cold air through all layers of the atmosphere.  I do not hink it is out of the question that the south side will see 4-6 inches from this storm system on Thursday.

We did have a good 2 inches here on the south side today.  This winter has been great, right along with you forecasts.  I wish we were in teh St. Joe band of snow so far, but I think the south side will enjoy winter as they are up north.

What was that Andrew? I dont see why they call it global warming, should be called climate change. But in any sense, humans have caused the earth to "warm" by forcing green house gases to trap in heat. This causes extreme weather events and weather patterns to shift. Yes, some of it is caused naturally but i do believe humans have had a large affect on it.

I could go on but rather not at this point.
If anyone disagrees please feel free to comment.

Winter Storm Watches are posted to our south, including southern MO and SE KS.

Kristi

The metro KC area is under a Winter Storm Watch from tomorrow morning until late tomorrow night.

Kristi

Gary:

Good cold winter's morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at 10 degrees here in SW Lawrence-I'm sure the official reading will be a bit lower given the location of the observation station but no matter, it is cold!!!

Wow-what a day for weather yesterday-can’t really say more!!! Fronts this dramatic do not happen every winter so it was pretty cool to experience it for sure!!! No real class work done yesterday-instead, I quickly threw together a PowerPoint with the surface observation maps for wind and temperature and then for good measure threw in some water vapor imagery and radar imagery and spent all day discussing the weather-it was just awesome and the students really enjoyed it-ok, at least I told myself that they did LOL!!!!


A couple random musings that as always I hope they stick and make some sense!!!

1. Ok first off-I blew the idea on where the core of the cold air was going to go-I babbled on Sunday that it was looking like it was going to bank up against the Rockies and be a bit more centered to the west-well, with Dodge City being 40 yesterday was I ever wrong!!!


2. With one in mind I think one can see on the surface charts that the high pressure system centered between central Missouri into Arkansas is not real strong and is quickly moving East-the return flow is already evident in central Kansas where their temps. are already in the upper 20's to low 30's in spots and even Arkansas is about to go into a return flow. My idea with all of this, is that in my very humble opinion (and keeping in mind that I am hobbyist on a good day LOL) is that there is nothing really there to force this developing low that far south as the NAM and Euro have shown. I just can't see why this would go into central Arkansas

3. If I am looking at the GFS correctly a big if LOL, it does indeed close off the upper low while it is in North Central Oklahoma and then keeps it closed as it moves EAst into Northern Arkansas. The GFS's track makes for sure makes more sense to me personally and I would not be surprised if it did not even come in a bit further North. At least we are seeing a closed off upper low developing.

4. However, the 700 level low does not close off that tightly as per the 0z GFS-it is a pretty broad circulation but it is interesting that it looks to be about 50 miles North of where the upper level low is located. Would be nice if that 700 MB feature could close off a little tighter

5. The 850 low is to me taking a pretty good track right along the Kansas/Oklahoma Border into Northern Arkansas and it is wound up pretty tight. Again, I would not be surprised if it does not indeed come in a bit further North

6. My biggest concern is WAA-with central Kansas already close to 30 at the 5:00 A.M. hour I am really wondering how the column reacts-will be interesting to watch the soundings today and just see how much of this cold air gets worked out. We will for sure drop below freezing tonight at the surface, but I just wonder if there could be some temp. issues at different levels at the outset. I could be all wet here and way off but I am just thinking about the our old friend WAA!!!

7. I did not look at a qpf map for this-I think with the way things are tracking, the fact that the gulf should be open, and with that plume of Pacific moisture comming into the SW, this should have plenty of moisture to work with

8.  In the end, this is a great set up for this area to see decent area wide snows is the WAA does not get us. We have a high to the North funneling down the colder air and southern energy tracking pretty decently. The cold air does not look strong enough (i.e. there is not a 1035 MB High sitting over Nebraska) to suppress things way south-a good set up in my very humble opinion!!!!

Ok, I've gone on incessantly again-this is going to be fun to track for sure. One more set of model runs maybe two then time to watch the satellite feeds, radars, and soundings. Awesome!!! What a great winter!!! Thanks as always for reading and keeping the BLOG updated with such great information and data-just massive Kudos to you and the team!!

Have a great day and enjoy tracking this storm-should be fun!!!

Bill towel tucked firmly in pocket in Lawrence

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Bill,

My biggest concerns are will it close off?  And, how far south will it track?  If it closes off and strengthens as it moves by someone is going to see a lot of snow.  We are more on the edge with the latest GFS run.  Let's see if this is a trend on the new models.  A nice snow storm is likely, but who will get hit?

Gary