NBC Action Communities

Gary

what time do you think the snow will start tomorrow?

Here's my 2c worth:

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=102193690776416852701.000444ef922dec7f24b45&ll=38.487995,-92.669678&spn=7.298653,17.314453&z=7&om=0

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Will it be north of this or south of this forecast?  I am not sure yet.

Gary

Brent will be happy!  :)

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Brent will only be happy if it happens!  Brent may get excited about the NWS forecast, but let's wait and see how the models trend.  I have concerns.

Gary

That map looks nice for the south side!  I like the forecast.

Where is gary's snowfall forecast map?  Or did he still just blanket the whole area as 1-4" as of the last forecast?  The snowfall is now only about 18 hours away or so.

The national weather service has saying the most snow for this storm will be in that same area for some time as what you said foodl3.   They've been pretty darn consistent in keeping the heavier band of snow south of the areas that Gary says have been hit over and over this season...and then less snow to the north.  They've been saying that for a couple of days and now their watches and warnings now show that too.  With all of the flip flops in the models it is impressive that they have stuck to their guns for a couple of days now.


I read about the LRC yesterday.  Which actual storm from December is this one supposed to be like?  The ice storm from the 11th?  Or a different one?  

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I will try to address this in our blog later this morning, but this storm is most similar to the October 21-22nd and December 14th -15th storm.  It is not really like the earlier December storm system.  Look for the comparable maps in our blog later this morning.

Gary

What and where will be the most snow, I want it to cover every tip of grass in my sight. Do you think we will get that much snow? In my yard that is probably 5-6 inches.

Byan

I can't wait for the December 22nd storm again in the LRC.  I still hope this one shift farther to the north and brings us more snow.  I would like to at least break 30 inches for the season here, which should be managable.  However why not go for 40 or even 50.

Just under 2 inches yesterday, brings my winter total to 28.5 give or take a few tenths of an inch.

Keep it south...I like snow as much as the next guy, but Maryville (and my shovel) need a break!  Let's call this "Brent's Storm"   :)

Wow...the south side might actually get snow...thats different!  Anyway, Gary doesn't sound very excited about this storm, which makes me very scared.  I said I want a southern storm, but not too far south!  I want about 5" - 6" here in Lee's Summit.  What do you think the chance of that is...ANYBODY'S opinion.  I want what all of you think.  

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Jacob,

I do have the usual concerns.  If you want snow, then hope it goes a bit farther north.

Gary

Darn, I was looking forward to another snowstorm north of the river, now it doesnt look like we will get much of anything...

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Don't worry yet.

Gary

Here in Liberty, our driveway is a sheet of ice with a little dry snow on top.  It looks as though someone turned on the garden hose and let it leak all day long.  With the wind blowing as hard as it did, little wave patterns froze in place.   I've never seen anything like it before, very weird.  I still would like at least 8 inches...that would make everything looks so beautiful.  Also, I can't remember who blogged it yesterday about what people do, in different parts of the U.S. as the temperature falls, but it was PRICELESS!!!  Thanks for the truth and a laugh!  ( By the way, I have been known to sleep with a stocking cap on during the coldest of cold nights and I'm a Kansas girl! )

Good morning Gary----Could the storm move northward slightly?  As you said, this has been the pattern.  What would cause the storm to deviate slightly from the previous pattern runs? I have been keeping tracks and storm amount since October and am trying to piece similar storms together.  You may be right in one sense that the February storms don't have the real intensity as did the October and December ones.  The blizzard storm of December 22nd in Topeka where we received 9 inches probably won't happen again in that form.  It could be interesting the next 12 hours. Even though it was "intense" yesterday for a couple of hours, I thought the wind was really something.   Thanks, Michael/Berryton/Topeka

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Michael,

I will go into more extensive details in our next blog entry.

Gary

I was just wondering when The next update will come out. I know that you are very busy Gary. I am not trying to rush you. I was just wondering when I should look back here. For me and probably a lot of other people this snow will greatly change how today and thurs and fri go. Thanks and have a great day.

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I will have this updated around 10 AM at the latest.

Gary

I wish I was there to be there for the snow. I live in W. Shawnee but am doing some work in Minneapolis this week. Currently at the suburbs of Minneapolis, at 7:25AM, it's -14F and the wind chill is -38F.

When should snow start to fall?  

Good morning Gary and the weather team.

Looking forward to your forcast on the next approaching winter storm.   I see that the NWS is predicting 4 - 7 inches at this time south of the River.   I know that the track of the storm will determine who really gets the snow and who just gets a little.

All my kids (the four legged ones as well) are wanting a big storm...

I saw last night that the KDOT wasn't expecting that much snow.  They need to watch your teams forcast..   And speaking of snow, you can add an half inch to the Grandview total for the year.

Have a great day...
Bill and Melissa Hale

Like I said. 5-8 inches south of KC and 4-7 in the metor area. I win

I hope the storm brings more snow to Marceline....BRING ON THE SNOW!!!!

I fear we will miss it this time.  Not going to be far enough north for much if any in Tonganoxie.  Bummer!  I am still waiting for the big one!  Will it ever happen?

Good morning Gary, NBC
Gary, I was reading the post about poor Brent down south and he will only be happy "if it happens" down south, you said you had concerns, is your concern that it will follow the same path as others- to the north or even going further south.  I know you are waiting on the latest data, I would like to know your concern as of  now.  We know youre always right, so dont worry.  I am excited about the forecast.  

BIG snows are never forecasted and come to pass in the metro. Snows of "event" proportion materialize as the event unfolds and that is when the weather service breaks in and revises and ups the depth throughout the event. Those of us south should not hold our breath once again. Even being this close in time to the actual storm happening we are under the "disappointment spell" this winter and likely the shift will occur and we will be left with what the snowbird left on the pump handle.
Let's wait to see the flakes fly before we get all caught up in this thing and sart specualating on plowing, shoveling sledding and stuff. It will be a long day for Gary and the team if we get the excitement level in the stratosphere only to possible CRASH when it is less than our fantasy's expected.
Good Luck Gary on this...................... Brent, maybe you and I need a trip to Colorado for some REAL snow? or a cup of coffee to vent our frustration with this winters snow here in the south metro.

Well the NWS out of Springfield is showing that ULL digging way south of KC, almost to the Texas-Oklahoma border.  So they're showing the heaviest snow way down in SE Missouri.  I'm sure I'm not the only one who doesn't believe this, because I just can't see the ULL going that far south.  We'll find out very soon.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=sgf&storyid=12576&source=0

ok people, not that far south.  no no no, it wont happen!  I said NO!

The concerns that Gary has bothers me to a degree. I am hoping that this storm does not go to far south to limit accumulations to much north of I70. Maybe it was good last night when I said dusting for everyone!

Bryan

I have a question...If this storm goes way south, does that mean this storm was not in sync with the LRC, or does that not matter where the storm goes?

NO MORE DUSTINGS!  Im sorry, yeterdays was nice, but its time for more then" 1-4 no more" here in Olathe.  
We are due.  What I have noticed though when NWS issues the watches, so far the heaviest bands shift north quite a bit. If that were to happen this time we would be in the heart of it.  It has yet to shift that far south this year, It just cant.

I was wondering if this storm is similar to the  Dec. 22 storm? I don't know alot about maps and what not, but as I tried to compare I thought this storm looked similar to the Dec. 22 storm. Am I way off in comparing the two?

At 7:14, the NWS posted their snowfall prediction map on the web...it shows 4-7 inches in and around the KC metro area.  I believe Gary's thinking the snow will take the same path as previous "storms" shifting more to the North and leaving the South out of the loop again...

It can't happen that way for the umpteenth time can it?

Fred

Fred, I'm getting the opposite feeling here in Topeka.  Looks like the storm may pass to the south of here like most of them have for the past 15 years with SE Kansas and Southern Missouri getting the heavy snow.  The 12Z NAM sure looks that way. The Topeka to St. Joe storm track this year may have only been temporary.  :(

Mike

Good morning Gary!  Are you glued to your maps and stuff?  I'm glad you and everyone else who blogs can figure them out - I sure can't!  But I'll check in later this morning for the new forecast.  Couldn't you just lie a little so us Southerners could have a few more hours of hope before its crushed?  :)  You Northeners - stop whining!  You already got lots of snow - it's OUR turn now!  Yeah!  The dogs love snow.  We have three - one a beagle with very short legs.  Always wanted to see him fly off the porch into a foot of snow (he's only about 8 or 9" high!)!!!  Cheap entertainment . . .

Mike,

I can understand why you feel that way, the 12Z does look like it takes the snow track further south in Kansas and Missouri.  However, I guess we will just have to trust what Gary says, maybe we could get a Topeka to Kansas City snow track this time?

Fred

Gary has a new blog entry up!