NBC Action Communities

I will take 2-4 inches of snow....if that means people north of the river can get a break. LOLOLOLOL!! That is if they want one. I hope it all pans out for us to get snow this time around. My girls are just dying to make snow angels and go sledding this year. I am keeping my fingers crossed.
Monica
Pleasanton KS

What is with this dang weather pattern!!?? Too far north...too far south...why in the world can't it just do something right and hit us for once!?  I have a very bad feeling about this.  I think we will get no more than 2" here in LS.  I hope I'm wrong...but it looks to be going way to far south. We'll see what happens, but I don't like what I am seeing.  Oh well.  Weather in Kansas City is horrible. HOPE THINGS CHANGE!

Nice blog Gary, thanks for the new update.  I dont buy it either per prior storm tracks.  Any snow is nice.
I just hope we get more then our 1-4 no more.

Its amazing the similarities in the storm set up from Oct to now.  Especially close is the Dec storm and this one with the only signifigant difference that I can see is the tilt of the trough.  Is that going to significantly affect potential snowfall?

If it wasn't for Gary's comments and the LRC,  I would be convinced the bulk of the storm would miss us (Topeka-KC) to the south based on past years experience. But maybe the LRC is showing this year is different! It will be interesting to see what the 12Z GFS shows...

Mike

Interesting blog, Gary...how or does this relate to the LRC?  

The SREF, NAM, and RUC have this thing closing off just to our south.  The GFS is a bit late on this one.  I like the set up.

Believing in the LRC. I think (hope) that this storm will track to the norh enough. Not sure what the moisture is but god wouldn't it be great if this did follow the LRC and KC just got slammed with 7-9 inches. I know some don't like the snow but my thoughts (having to work in it) are if it is going to snow let it be 6" or more less than that is just annoying. I also think some kids south of the metro need a snow day. Any way just my thoughts not that anyone really cares. Can any one tell me when the gfs comes out? not that I am going to know anything about it. It will just tell me when the weather team will have a better idea on this storm. I also noticed that Gary did not put out a snow total on this blog! WHYS THAT?????

LATER!

If the storm for tonight/tomrorow is like the December 15th storm, which storm was analogous to the massive ice storm from December 11th?

Scott, I was interested in this also, I posted a similar question on the previous blog.

Scott...what do you think?

Scott...what do you think?

When is there going to be a 8 to 15 incher around here? Seems to be all small storms this year.

if this storm is like the storm from December 15th, aren't they only about 47 days apart...I thought you said we had a 54 day cycle this year?

Blogger help, either my can somebody send me the NWS snowfall map prediction for this storm, I cant find it, my browser is messing with me plus limited time. LOL

Here we go again..................... plan on nothing and be thrilled with anything!!!

Areas north we all are aware about closing in on 30 inches. We know that already, it is like rubbing snow in our faces here in the south metro.
Maybe it is our turn?????  

Noticing how the low will drop off of some of the models i have it shows the low closing off around Emporia and tracking northeastward toward lee summit and independence. I say that Kc gets 5-8 Inches of snow and that the storm will be happening starting around 12:30 AM Thursday Morning. The storm looks impressive with Chester ILL. getting around 9-12 inches of snow.

KC will get 5-8 inches of snow and I will bet anything that this will happen

I was skeptic about the LRC at first, but you have another convert now.  I propose that there is another pattern that we can use.  I will call it the WWB.......
Winter Weather Barrier!!

Maybe it is just me, but it seems that the last few winters every time a storm comes along that may hit Kansas City there is this natural phenomenon of a barrier that diverts the storm either north or south of KC.  Almost like there is this trough through KC that the storms can not break through.

However when we get to the severe weather in spring time this trough or barrier disappears and KC gets the full brunt of these thunderstorms.  Anyone else care to buy into my new theory of the WWB?

I'm not even close to being considered an amateur meterologist, this is just my humble observation.

I was going to ask the same things as Jerry.  Did we miss or not notice the Dec. 8-11th storm(s) and why is this storm cycling so much shorter than this years cycle (54 days)?

Brett34, they aren't putting one out yet, because they say
"THE TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...AND A DEVIATION OF THE EXPECTED TRACK
MAY MEAN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS"

I'll be happy with any snow at this point! Looking forward to you pinning this one down, Gary!

No Pressure, =}

YES WinterLover!  I've been saying that for quite some time!  It's like every storm int eh spring/summer comes right through us southeast of the City -- but the winter ones seem to split - with the exception of the big one in December that dumped a foot plus.  I'm definitely no amateur meteorologist -- but I like your theory!  :)

Any snow is good and I will enjoy it........could be a 50 miler again as the track will determine who gets blasted and who gets left wanting.

 DfromWarsaw said, no wonder im having issues- LOL
I am multitasking - LOL.

Hey Jacob...I will take the bait.

The cycle this year is about 54 days.  I have even seen a range of 51-57 days.

A day or two ago, it was said we are back into about 54 days where a few days before that we were around 51 days.

So, look at the dates above - 10/22 and 12/15.  Wanna take a stab at when the next date should be?

2/7/08.  So...perhaps now the cycle is back to 47 days?  Or...um...well.  I don't know.

That is why I asked.  Here is what I think - and just my opinion.  I cannot answer to the cycle deviation that this post would imply.  I don't buy it, but all the same...not my theory so I will defer to Gary.  What I do see is much of what I decribed yesterday.

From the 24th through the 7th of Feb, we will see a different type of storm.  Because of the west coast troughing which is part of the cycle, the paths are different from the rest since the ULLs normally cutoff.  Even this one is doing this.

So, what I think Gary is showing is that with this type of storm, we can see where the ULLs are tracking for this TYPE of storm, maybe not this EXACT storm in the cycle.  For the upcoming early Feb storms, I would expect them to follow this exact same path.

I hope this is what this entry was trying to depict, otherwise...I give up.

Finally, maybe the southern counties like Johnson County will finally get in on the heavier stuff!

Yeah, I was also wondering about Gary's explanation of this storm. Dec 15 was only 46 days ago. IF the LRC is as predictable as claimed, then this simply cannot be a repeat of the December storm. Or, if Gary is giving the cycle 8 days of leeway on either side of the "average" cycle length, then he could make any cycle length fit with any storm.

so then what happened to the storm that was supposed to be like the ginormous ice storm that we had on December 11th?  Do the storms switch order the next time around?  If tomorrow's storm is like the 15th, where was the ice storm?

If the cycle is anywhere from 51-57 days, that is 7 days leeway.  it seems anyone could make any storms 'cycle' if they were given 7 days leeway.

And on top of that, now we're down to 47 days (from the 12/15 storm to today)?

I say let's get a foot of snow....strong winds...and hot chocolate for everyone!  Actually it is the timing I'm the most interested in.  I'm anxious to see the update this morning.

DL

Scott what is your feeling about what this storm does?

"So, what I think Gary is showing is that with this type of storm, we can see where the ULLs are tracking for this TYPE of storm, maybe not this EXACT storm in the cycle. "

That is a plausible explanation based on the semi-permanent long wave features. Almost every meteorologist/weather fan believes in these features setting up and staying basically in place during a season. However, it does not square at all with the theory of a predictable, repeating cycle.

Rdub, this is why I think Gary is showing the type of storm and possible path with other similar type of storms.

I hope.

NWS has not put out a snowfall map but.  One discussion mentions 3-7".

I will say this...based on the surface trending, I do see some minor deviations through each cycle.  It is not always exactly 54 days, but I have not seen it deviate YET more than 2 days.  

This storm is a hair late, but within acceptable variance.  What should have been a Feb 2nd storm may come in on the 3-4th.  Still ok.  But anything more than that lends itself to be wide open for criticism.

And my analysis still shows the cycle to be intact and pretty steady.  That is why I will defer any and all LRC questions to Gary as he can speak to that aspect.  I can only speak to what I have observed through my method of cycle analysis.

"When is there going to be a 8 to 15 incher around here? Seems to be all small storms this year."

That's true every year. KC is not the place to live if you like heavy snow. Check out this little tidbit from Pleasant Hill...

"There have been 1816 measurable snow events (roughly 15/yr) at the official Kansas City reporting site since 1888. Of those,there have been only 143 events (7.9% or approximately once per season) where 4 or more inches of snow fell and only 57 events (3.1% or once every 2 seasons) where 6 or more inches of snow fell on a calendar day."

Gary, I like that you have provided some good, easy to understand graphic evidence to support the LRC.  When you look at the information you have posted, it clearly supports the LRC.  Not only that, use of the LRC seems to be making forecast tracks and amounts right on target.  To you and the team, keep up the good work!!  Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!!!!

Scott, a hair late? Seems to me it's 9 days early.

Scott,

What do you think will happen in the way of snowfall tomorrow?  I will NOT hold you to it as I know things can change, but Gary won't go into details, and I don't know how well some of the people on the blog can read model data.  Do you think the south side (Lee's Summit) could see a nice 6 or so inches?  Me and Brent really want snow!

WOW

Gary - I think a lot of us are interested in the timing of it - as in how's rush hour tomorrow morning gonna be?  The pits?

WinterLover - I responded to you in the last blog - being an amateur myself, I think I'm adopting your WWB theory!  Certainly seems to be the norm!  :)

Hey Gary! We are here in beautiful San Diego and are flying home to KC Thursday. Think we will make it? Wouldn't mind being stuck here another day!!! Although it has been a wild weather week here....(for So California!)

My question is where is the ULL at now in relation to those prior storms and has it already starting tracking more like the December storm or the October one?  I would think based on the LRC there would be some confidence in where this storm is going to track being 24 hours away.  Maybe that's what the 10am update is for.

weatherjaded,

I am generally inline with the NWS on this one.  In analysis yesterday, I was noting both a nice realm of lift in the overnight hours providing some snow potential and also seeing the more obvious deformation zone as a second push.

I think the question that still is hampering more exact snowfall zones or totals is the behavior of the ULL.  I thought last night it became apparent that the models trends were going to close it off.  It appears still to be feasible.  If that is the case, you then get a more widespread snowfall with a potential for heavier amounts.

Last night on the blog I went with 3-5 inches with some localized heavier amounts for the metro area.  North will be a bit less, south can be a bit more.

Gary has maintained 1-4 inches.  Not much different than mine other than mine is more precise with 2 inch range vs 4 inch range.  But, all in all, that his is still probably the better call at this point with the ULL doing its craziness.

I am not afraid to go out on the limb..and too often I do.  I think 3-5 is a fair bet with two possible rounds of snow and the duration of the event.  Also factoring in a deepening ULL and it closing off…I think moisture, lift and location is good for us.

Kansas City is probably one of the least favorable locations for bigger snows. Everything and I mean everything has to go right for a storm to build and become a big one. Moisture is the biggest problem as by the time Pacific storms get here they have been drained, Gulf moisture doesn't really flow north that well at this time of year, Alberta Clippers by their nature aren't that full of moisture. So we are in a hole for snow and any we get is a plus.

so the parkville/farley area won't get much snow tomorrow??

Thanks for sharing... politics and being the most accurate keep our #1 weather team from stepping out on a limb.  Thats ok too.

Gary, I see the NAM is beginning to pick up on the secondary heavier band of snow for just nothwest of the metro.  I like your 1-4 " forecast.  The heavier amounts may be to the northwest and lighter just southeast.  But look out southern and eastern Missouri.  It won't be rain this time.

littleladybugs....most likely not.  I want a lot of snow too, but I just don't see us getting much.  I HOPE I'M WRONG!

I bet if you guys had to push a loaded rack of bread thru just 2 inches of snow you would'nt want any snow. It really makes my job pretty difficult when it snows more than an inch, I used to love it when it snowed but now "please no snow"

"Scott, a hair late? Seems to me it's 9 days early."  

Rdub,

I differ in opinion as to which storm this is in the cycle.  

I believe this to be the 12/6, 10/13, 8/20 storm.  Not the 12/11, 10/17, 8/24 storm.  The later should be the first of Feb storm that I had originally targeted around Feb 3rd.  

As the storms seem to have moved about a day out, then perhaps the 4-5th is a better view of that storm now.  

You know..this storm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_156l.gif

LOL

Scott, that is an interesting aspect of the "repeating" cycle...if two proponents of said cycle can't agree on which storm is which...

Steveluvs3 they need bread delivery men in warmer climates also.  How many people do you thinkg show up and wat to by cars in the snow?  Doesn't keep me from loving it!

Gary- this is just AMAZING how these maps match up!! Do you have a time frame for this storm to move in!  I think that we have all caught on and know that you do control the weather!! Haha

Brian

Well I'm still learning about how the ULL works, but in my amateur opinion the ULL appears to be coming back further north by noon tomorrow and appears similar to October's storm.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_030l.gif

I was wondering if some one could give a good estiamte of when the snow might arrive. I plow snow on the night shift. If it is going to start around midnight tonight then I need to go home and go to bed. If it is going to be later like 4:00am that I will stay at work. I won't hold any one to this. Olathe Lenexa area. I really hope this is a big storm. something over 6". Thanks

WOW!  You folks to the south should like this:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p48_048l.gif

Rdub, until Gary weighs in, I am not sure one can say we are in disagreement.  

I am very firm in what I see.  Ultimately, I am sure Gary would prefer you follow his lead in this as he has been doing it much longer and has a degree.  

It was only based on my own confusion in understanding how the LRC is shown at the upper levels that drove me to my surface based method.

Gary uses upper level maps and longwaves to define his theory.  I use the same concept of a cycle, but ignore upper level maps and only focus on the surface for my method.

Optimally, a blend of both would yield the best results in my opinion.  I will not speak for Gary in this.  I can only define what I see and what I think based on my own observations.  I have gotten in trouble before speaking out of turn, so this time..I will only give my own thoughts.

;-)

Well, if im reading the Latest GFS right, it looks like the storm is starting to trend more north and really crank up the priecp.  I would not be suprised if liberty south  someone will be picking up 8in

kane - how much snow do you need on the ground for you to have to plow?  That will make a difference to your timing question.

And it shows precip here for at least 4 frames!

I was wondering what time storms would be rolling in. ??? I have a college professor who lives a ways away from school... she's talking about canceling her class if we get more bad weather or snow. :)

Scott,
I would start work when it starts snowing putting salt down. (if it is expected to accumilate) If a dusting or less than an inch is expected that I would do nothing. So when it starts up to an inch with ecpected  accumilations to be over 2 inches. if that makes any sense. I am not sure how to explain it.

Fire Dog, when you say the storm is trending more North, that don't mean towards St joe does it, because I live in South KC and would like to see some snow just once this winter (more than an inch).

kane1970, my husband also has to plow at night, besides working in the day. They plow if we get a couple of inches, plus do salt.

My flight gets back in town at 11:15PM, I hope to see some snow shortly thereafter!  I'm looking for 3-6 in S. OP.

Fire Dog,

How positive are you on this heavy snow for everybody?  Where did you find that info at?

Well it brings the more heavy pricep to about Liberty southward untill the OK border.

Does anybody else agree with Fire Dog? ************* Jacob, Gary is out for about another hour and then will update the blog...likely giving a much more specific breakdown of forecast snow totals. Hang in there! Start time should be 6am or later depending on where one lives. Earliest times west of the stateline. Jeremy

I'm not liking this at all!  Not one bit!  I actually liked being left out of the snow loop!  

Kane, based on the GFS MOS, the SREF plume, the SREF, the RUC and the current GFS, I am going to go with about 3-6 AM for when the snow should really start.  I am basing this off of Olathe area.

Just my analsyis.

Plowing snow is ok. I just think it is better if there is a lot of snow to plow. The other thing is the timming of when i go to work and when i sleep. That is somthing that is hard to get a handle on. but this blog has really helped out on that. I have had an idea of this storm since last week. I wouldn't have known that if I wasn't on here.



I wonder why Gary hasn't put out a totals map yet.

Im getting all that from the GFS.  And there is always a chance things could change, ITS STILL 24 HRS AWAY.  It could go more north or more south, but using the LRC i see it trending more north.

Scott, what do you think about the QPF being .64 thru Fri?

Scott...are you saying that the snow in Olathe should start between 3 and 6 am?  

Jeremy - what brings you here so early?  LOL

Jeremy...what is your best snowfall amount guess???  PLEASE just give us a range for LS area, better than 1-4".  Thanks.

That is just my analysis.  For the most accurate forecast in the metro, please rely on the weather team.

LOL

 RDub I think this has the potential to be our biggest.  

BTW if the next model run on the NAM doens't look any better, and the GFS stays right on track or even better,  WE NEED TO DISCONTINUE USING THE NAM UNTIL SPRING!

kellyann, took me a minute to find where you were looking.  HPC, right?

Plausible.  It fits the trend potential.  

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif

Scott, yes, thats where I was looking. I was checking out various charts on the site..It looks like the southern parts of KC will get a good shot at big snow...that is if one buys into this being the correct setup and not changing, Im not sure I do at this point. I think it will be close anyway!

Thanks Scott! Geuss I will just sit back and wait for Gary's Forecast. I probably will go home a little early and get some sleep. I will have to get up around 2:00am I geuss.:(

From what I have looked at, I would tend to think 4-5 inches would be about correct for south KC, that is on the low side.

Well that link gives STJ .25-.50 with cold air that is 4-7 inches up here it seems to be riding north in 12 hrs it will be in the blue .75+  Fun to watch the models change ...oh thee of little faith ....should have known Atchision, Topeka & St Joseph all along.  Heck our grass is nearly covered from 1.7 in yestreday.  

"Effective 6/20/06, the NAM model (North American Mesoscale) (formerly using the Eta physics)now uses WRF (Weather Research Forecast) physics. Improved accuracy in predicting thunderstorms and other convective weather. Still poor performance for tropical storms and other features, best handled by the GFS."

stjoeattorney, don't count on it changing this time, I just don't see it happening.

Just wait till it starts snowing, then I'll tell you how much we get!

I have been saying 3 to 6 for the metro, but I think I might have to up my forecast.  Then again, I am no meteorologist.  

heavysnow, I believe by your own name you may have a bias to higher amounts.

LOL

I looked at NWS on about 10 different cities ranging from Wichita, Tulsa, Fayetteville, KC, St. Louis and all points in between and based off what I'm reading on advisories etc.  They seem to have the most potential I would say on a line of Iola, KS to Butler, Mo through Sedalia.

Seems most all of them are saying 3-5 inches during the day tomorrow but those areas are also in the 1-3 inch range for tonight.

I have a question for Gary or the weather team, I know its still hard to predict right now, but my boss' fiance is planning to come back to KC from St. Louis tomorrow beginning 5:00.  Any idea on how the drive might be, or if he may be better off staying put?  I would really appreciate anyone's thoughts on this.

---------------

It could have some major problems as the storm will be right between here and St. Louis.

Gary

this will be a larger slower two banded storm, with "mini surface low so to speak" 150 miles wide that i've been talking about for over a month STJ  4-7 Raymore 4-7 as well; Maryville 2-4 Harrissioville 4-7.

I agree, "heavysnow" your name would seem to point to larger snow amounts...

Scott,

What is your gut feeling about this storm?  IMO, I still think the models are trending a tad far south, and 50 miles is going to make a heck of difference.  I think that the snow may take direct bullseye on the KC Metro area, south/east may see larger snow fall amounts than previous storms, north less....what is your take?

Fred

Gary, would you agree with above posts putting the start time for the storm between 3AM and 6AM?

---------------

The warm advection will be kicking in around that time.  I haven't had a chance to pin down the timing yet.  Let me look it over and we will have an update very soon.

Gary

Fred, look above for my thoughts.

Metro will be 1-4 and our dear friends in St. Joe will get a foot! And we will hear about it for the next month.

Thanks Scott, I didn't look at many of the previous comments...

N2mountains, LOL...I agree, it does get old hearing the same ole thing from the few in St Joe...This time, they will be sulking because they won't get blasted for once! They spoke one too many times, lol

Good mid morning Weather Team!!

How are you holding up today??

Well, instead of grading papers and organizing my classes, I am looking at computer models and surface charts-but hey, I am incorporating it into my classes today!!!

A couple of random observations that in all seriousness I have no idea if they are on the right track and I am mosty likely grasping at straws-wouldn't be the first time!!! But, here it goes!!!

1. Looking at the 16Z surface charts, the surface low looks to be located just east of Goodland-the 12Z GFS had this feature about 200 miles to the south of where it is located.

2. Looking at the 15Z RUC, it does indeed have this surface feature a bit further North than the 12Z GFS

3. The 15Z RUC if I am reading it correctly looks to be forming the upper level low further north than the 12Z GFS by about 100 miles. At 0z the 15Z RUC looks a bit North than the 12Z GFS at 0Z hours.

I am most likely way off with these thoughts,  but I just can't get it out of my head:  I can't  really not see much of a reason for this to track very far south-what is there that the models are seeing to suppress this somewhat?? I just think this is going to in the end wind up tracking a bit further North than what the models are progging at the present time and I think the RUC may be picking up on it and that the surface low is North of where the GFS has it could also be an indicator.

Just some random observations this morning-I hope they make a little sense and for sure they are not to be taken as anything other than observations put forth by a History teacher LOL Thanks for reading and have a great day!!!

Bill in Lawrence

--------------------

Bill,

We will know a lot more on the track of the storm soon.  The GFS never really closes off an upper low and it just slides by on Thursday.  I have been out for a couple of hours, so we will have more of an analysis soon, but you are looking at the correct features.  The system will go through an evolution tonight, however, so let's see how the 18z models do.

Gary

Hmmm, just watched Brett...They are stuck on the 1-4 range. The forcast has been the same since yesterday, lol...what gives?

I can't imagine that they won't up those numbers at 5pm

didn't we see in the blog yesterday something about the what if's the low moved into southwestern Kansas, that it would push it north?  Isn't it pretty much there?

Time for a new blog!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
j/k

-----------------

I just updated this blog, and we will have a brand new one later today.  I have been busy all morning, sorry!

Gary

1-4 status quo...safe pick. :(

Could it be they are waiting for Gary to get in to redo the forecast that was just used at 11 AM?? Guess we will find out shortly what the new thoughts are. I am anxious to see the 1PM Hazardous Weather Outlook to see if the NWS has changed their thoughts any based on the RUC and GFS trending a bit further North. Plus current surface chart does look like this system is sitting near Dodge City...but I'm not excellent at picking out all of the features yet.

Kellyann:  I think is because the NWS has overated everystorm this year, and KC seems to be stuck on the 1-4" range on EVERY single storm.  Given the LRC, everystorm can act differently and I really hope this one does!  Its still in the cycle but it could be stronger or weaker.  

Yes, 1-4 is a safe prediction. Kind of like my Super Bowl prediction: a team from the Northeast will win.

------------

Rdub,

You are being tough today!  I still don't have a problem with our 1-4 inch prediction.  But, this evening we will make a more specific call if we see any stronger evidence! 

Gary

I'm still confused about tying this to the 12/15 storm that was only 46 or 47 days ago since I thought the LRC was a 54 day cycle.  


I'm curious what Gary says about when the ice storm happened during this cycle...yesterday's little shortwave certainly wasn't like the ice storm from december.

It seems everyone falls in love with the LRC because Gary says it happens, but he twists everything all around just to make it fit.  The maps look pretty - they match up all nice - but they're not on a consistent schedule/cycle...some are 54 days apart, others are 47, etc...  If there is that much flexibility, then anyone could make any pattern fit.  

It doesnt have to exactly match, just because it is a few days off, nobody else can predict weather months in advance, if they did they would look really bad.
NBC has it down, accurate as accurate can get.  

------------------------

Brett,

Thanks!  We have used the LRC this season the best we know how at this point.  And, there hasn't really been a missed forecast on a storm yet.  As you said, it isn't perfect, but this season, we have a really good grasp on what is happening in our local area.

Gary

"NBC has it down, accurate as accurate can get"

I agree, Brett...if Gary says something's going to happen, it's going to happen.  That's the bottom line.  

-------------------

Thanks, but you are only as good as your last forecast.  So, we will hopefully get this one correct as it poses a few challenges.

Gary

Good luck all you guys in K.C. and points south!  I will gladly give up any snow that may think of falling up here by Maryville...you guys have been waiting for a long time and I hope this is your turn!!  Remember, you can have all mine!

"4 or more inches south of Harrisonville."

YES!!!

just make that comma head form over us and give me two more inches and I will be happy!!! lol

finally a storm that hits the southern areas!

I heard springfield could get 8 inches!!!

maybe it will come north a bit and hit Harrisonville!

I will be happy no matter what happens with this storm...I hear its supposed to snow most of the day!
you can't beat that!

yay!

Brent

"If the storm for tonight/tomrorow is like the December 15th storm, which storm was analogous to the massive ice storm from December 11th?"

if that is so...then why aren't we getting close to 20 inches of snow?....because we had almost 2 inches of rain with that storm.....


"KC will get 5-8 inches of snow and I will bet anything that this will happen"

I wish I could bet with ya chiefs.....I think KC will end up with 3...and Harriosnville 5

Some of you act like the people in St Joe are rubbing the snow in your faces.  You really think we have any control of how much we get?  We just report the totals like Gary asks.  The newer models are showing that the storm is starting to trend north.  Looks like we will get snow afterall...I am sure Gary will up the snowfalls once he reevaluates the new info from the models.  Im just as impatient as the next person; I want to know when and where the snow is coming.  However, I think with this storm we won't know until later this evening what is really going to happen.  I do have faith in the LRC and therefore I know that St. Joe will get snow!!!  :)  

Brent...I wish I could send you my share of snow!  I'd be more than happy to let you have it!  I know you've been waiting for a long time for it to be your turn

I know there is a nice winter storm heading this way but also dont want to forget the first Spotter Talk is tonight. Looking forward to it and some snow!

Actually, I think 1-4 is an good prediction for the overall viewing area. Sometimes, without good evidence either way, it's tough to make a more specific prediction... but since other bloggers were complaining about it, I thought I'd throw in a Super Bowl joke.

I'm more curious about the sudden change in the period of the LRC from 54 to 46 days. But that's a discussion for later, when no storm is coming.

--------------------

Rdub,

Yes, we can go into this another day.  But, it isn't a sudden change in our thinking of the cycle length. I am just pointing out that this individual type of storm happened in each cycle, and around the same time.  After we complete the next two weeks and move into the fourth cycle of the pattern, assuming it began in October like we believe it did, we will know more about the exact cycle length.  It certainly appeared to be 54 days and it still may be, give or take a few days.  We spent a long time on the cycle last night, and it is fascinating.  Let's talk about it when the weather calms down.  Right now, it is just amazing how similar and unique these storm systems are to this year.

Gary

I just dont see how we could only get 2-3 inches out of this, It sure seems like it will be a double of this, guess Im just seeing something.

Are they going to up the totals?...or at least narrow it down a bit?...I would say 3 to 6 for the south side of the metro...

I too am wondering why the cycle changed from 54 ro 46 days.  And if it can change like that on a whim, what use is it really good for?

And I'll ask again since it was ignored above, when did that ice storm repeat itself?  

Man I was really hoping to get more snow than 1-4 . :( Geuss I will have to wait until a later date.

"Thanks, but you are only as good as your last forecast.  So, we will hopefully get this one correct as it poses a few challenges."

Gary


-------------

I know things ''change'' but we're about 12-16 hours out on this storm.  We still can't nail it down and have to allow wiggle?

NWS is saying something like 4-7, at least for areas in the Winter Storm Watch. However, I think they have gone overboard on a couple of predictions already this year, haven't they? Issuing heavy snow warnings for places that only ended up with 3 inches or so. Am I remembering that right?

Come on new BLOG :) :)

well it seems to me that 41 is the lowest total out there....with as low as one inch

except for that station that thinks it will miss all but the extreme southern sections.....

-------------------

Brent,

You know as soon as we have evidence that you will get more than that range, we will go for it.  We still have time. 

Gary

My prediction for the KC metro is 2-5 inches. The NWS in Topeka says 3-7 inches is possible in Douglas County!

Another interesting potential storm is showing up on the 12Z GFS around day 7. The stormy part of the pattern will likely live up to expectations if these model trends continue.

--------------

Yes, Another storm is rather impressive and is just 5 days away.

Gary

RDub,
QPF looks to be at least in the .20-.50 range for most of the area. That is why I am guessing around 2-5 inches with higher totals to the south. I think another storm could be possible next week as well.

SNOW!! SNOW!! SNOW!!








SOMEWHERE SOMETIME SOMEHOW.............................................

this is scary....ALL the snow is gone from my yard...

I am beginning to think I have a geothermal hot spot or something under my yard.......

Wow another storm! This has been quite an interesting winter so far.

In looking at the 12z GFS raw numbers, the downtown airport shows .40 of liquid by midnight Thursday. It also shows 850MB temps running from -7C to -10C which is much colder than earlier snows.

If both of those verify, would the snow/liquid ratio be much higher than the typical 10:1 or 12:1? Maybe on the order of 15:1 or 20:1, i.e 6-8 inches in the heart of KC?

I will not go down the LRC discussion trail...I will not go down the discussion trail.  I have to keep repeating that to myself right now.

Focus.  I must stay focused on this upcoming storm.

LOL

Bill, great observations.  You have evolved nicely in picking out these features from surface obs.  I am going to bet this ULL closes off before 7PM tomorrow.

Per the SREF, the ULL forms 0900UTC
Per the NAM, the ULL forms about 1500UTC
Per the RUC, the ULL forms about 1600UTC

So..about 3AM - 10AM - Also, the comma head has been hinted at for a day..I think I posted a link yesterday that showed it.

Dunno.  I will give Gary the benefit of the doubt as he has been busy all morning.  I am sure this will be noted for the updated forecast with the snow ranges at about 5PM?

Seems late again.  Just my opinion.

----------------------

Scott,

LMOL

Come on! Late again?  You should go back and see how we have forecasted the snowstorms this season.  We still are believing that 1-4 inches is the best forecast.  At the same time, if I see evidence of an upper low closing off and it is in a good position to increase our lift and thus cause heavier and longer duration snow, then we will up our totals. The pressure is on as higher forecasts are out there.  The last two times higher forecasts were out there they had to take them down a knotch.  So, let's just see how it evolves.  It is much easier to "upgrade" the snow forecasts rather than go down, mentally.  So, it isn't a bit late, yet!  The sun is still shining!

Gary

Rdub,

"I believe this to be the 12/6, 10/13, 8/20 storm.  Not the 12/11, 10/17, 8/24 storm.  The later should be the first of Feb storm that I had originally targeted around Feb 3rd.  

As the storms seem to have moved about a day out, then perhaps the 4-5th is a better view of that storm now.   "


"Yes, Another storm is rather impressive and is just 5 days away.

Gary"

The cycle is intact.

-------------------

LMOL

Gary

Rick, I tend to go for 8:1 or 10:1 for the average in this area.  With nice 850mb numbers and good dend growth, I can see 12-15:1.

I am stuck on 3-5, but with the ULL forming sooner and a better comma head - note I said a better one, not a new one - then could go to 4-8.  I am not going there quite yet, however.  3-5 is safe, 4-8 when I start seeing some radar returns SW of here.

Hey Jeremy -

"We are thinking 1 or 2 inches up near St. Joseph, and 4 or more inches south of Harrisonville. "  

That is still 1-4 in my book. ********** I guess you missed the 'or more' part.

Gary, when you peers jump on a storm with totals early yesterday [regardless of the amounts], the NWS issues their watches in the overnight -and you still are on 1-4 [which could apply to 90% of the snowstorms that hit the region] - I think it is late.

But, that is my standard...and others likely are very cool with what you have.  It just doesn't personally work for me..but again...just me.

so many predictions, so many variables, so little time!

signed,
wishing for a dry slot to magically appear and not a comma head! lol....

I'm with you Gary..no need to sound the snow alarm bell without good data to support it We don't want to get the "accudart"forecast started again :)

--------------

Thanks, and if we see anything that supports higher, or lower totals we will go for it at that time.

Gary

Jeremy...you are right, I did disregard the "or more" part.  Would you or Gary like to add that to the range?  Say 1-6 inches possible?  How about 1-8 inches?

LMAO

[kinda teasing now -]

-----------------

Scott,

We are still in the 1-4 inch range. 

Gary

Well if he thinks that the storm is going to produce 1 to 4 inches then he isn't late.  As of last night and right now, he put down 1 to 4 inches.  He will make more decisions obviously by 5 and beyond.  

I think that 1 to 4 is low for the City and south, but once again I am not a Meteorologist its just a hunch based off what I have learned from reading in here and other places.  

I think 3 to 6 is pretty good still and maybe a tad higher in spots.

I guess the question is which is more important, timeliness or accuracy?  Is it better to correctly forecast the snow totals as the first flakes are drifting down from the sky or miss the total by 25% but make the forecase 36 hours in advance?

************* To be fair to Gary...he talked about this one day having a storm almost a month ago. Then 7 days ago when the models were still up and down with the storm we put snow in the forecast 7 days out when others didn't. Gary has put totals down...and those will be adjusted one way or another. Before any other show went on today at noon he narrowed the ranges down and clearly said the heaviest could be to the south. Watch at 5, 6, & 10pm and I guarantee you that you will see the most accurate forecast in KC. Jeremy

heavysnow...very valid.

It is just hard for me to accept that range based on my thoughts above.  For the next ten snow storms, I will go with 1-4 inches right now.  

Without any modification, I will be right 80% of the time.

I will borrow this from Rdub above from the NWS

"There have been 1816 measurable snow events (roughly 15/yr) at the official Kansas City reporting site since 1888. Of those,there have been only 143 events (7.9% or approximately once per season) where 4 or more inches of snow fell and only 57 events (3.1% or once every 2 seasons) where 6 or more inches of snow fell on a calendar day."

Clearly, my standards are too high.

---------------------

Scott,

We aren't saying 1-4 inches to be safe.  When we make our forecasts we will tell you exactly what we think will happen.  I am going to try to be more precise soon, but we still believe that 1-4 inches is the best forecast for this situation.

Gary

If we had 7" inches, I would be shocked and very happy!  I would be comfortable hearing a forecast of 1-8", but some wouldnt and then their would be people saying oh... so and so said this ... then we get an inch. People instantly assume the high end total and exagerate it from there.  Accuracy is a big thing here at NBC I think they would rather nail it the best they can rather then cause chaos and rumors, updates are the key, this station is KC weather update central.  

I know none of you want to hear this...but I watched the noon stations...and one that said it would miss us to the south last night is saying 3 to 6 for the metro and more south!

another is saying as much as 10 inches south of where I live!

when are you going to up your totals Gary!?..

or are you?...lol

Brent, you should have learned by now that Gary doesn't go by what other stations say...quit watching them, Gary has proved his method is the most accurate.

Well I see the NWS has most of KC and all points south in a nice 4-7" band of snow.  I'm still holding back any excitement until I hear what Gary has to say.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=eax&storyid=12264&source=0

legalpractice,

Here is a thought that always runs in my head for snow prediction.

Generally, in the spring time..people are fine with "is it going to rain or not".  Unless a severe flooding situation, generally no one cares about how MUCH it will rain.

In the winter time, people care about how much snow.  So, with ratios 10:1 on average, and knowing we are talking about normally 4 inches or less, then we ask the mets to predict liquid totals that are very finite.  Generally, .1-.6 of an inch.

That is very difficult.  But, that said...I will take a 25% variance on snow totals.  Here is why.  How many mets say it will snow exactly 4 inches as an example

None.

This is why there is a range.  But having a 4 inch range from a very small amount to a normal amount seems rather broad.

I would rather have timeliness since precision [not accuracy] is implied to be variable.

I am now fully converted to NBC, for about a month now and don't do other blogs at all anymore because its all negative amongst other things.  
1) ACCURACY
2) PASSION
3) MULTIPLE UPDATES
3) AWESOME INTERACTION
4) THE AMOUNT OF KNOWLEDGE YOU LEARN HERE
5) NO NEGATIVITY,  BLOGGERS HELP EACH OTHER OUT HERE WHEN THEY ARE
PERFECTING THEIR FORECAST.  
6) IF NOT NUMBER ONE, GARY SHARING THE BEST THING IN WEATHER HISTORY, THE LRC!  

1 to 4 inches is a little generic...plus we have a big viewing area... ************ Brent, Gary updated the blog at 11:30am...did you read it? Jeremy

Why are legitimate questions about the LRC dismissed?

How did we go from 54 day cycle to 47 day cycle.

what happened to the big ice storm from december cycling back? ************** Gary will address your questions about the LRC and likely do an entire blog about it. Please bring up the discussion again when we don't have a storm coming within 24 hours. Gary loves challenges from bloggers and will be more than happy to answer. Jeremy

"Chris said:
Brent, you should have learned by now that Gary doesn't go by what other stations say...quit watching them, Gary has proved his method is the most accurate."

treu but I just can't kick my habit of watching that station that predicts the most snow!!!!
I just can't!

it seems like it used to be that Gary used to predict the highest toals of the stations...and I was happy to watch him...but not now as much..lol

I'm stupid yes...lol

Brent

Well the warm air advection won out on yesterday!!! And most areas saw some snow, Clinton actually had close to 0.4ths of an inch!!! I was very happy with this. Now I am not looking at dead grass plain, now it has some snow on top.  I am getting excited about this next storm!!! Gary, I know that you were thinking that the storm is going to push farther north, but are you thinking that now with the data that came out earlier?  If it did then it looks like the southern portion of the viewing area would be in a deeper precipitation field, and could get more snow than previously forecast .  What is your opinion on the track of the ULL? It sure is getting exciting now that is for sure, and with such a wild day yesterday, and now a possible major snowstorm on Thursday, and a storm for next week, now it is getting exciting again, maybe this time we can get a decent snowfall out of this next storm.

So what is the weather teams opinion on the track and intensity of the ULL?

'Well I see the NWS has most of KC and all points south in a nice 4-7" band of snow."

YAY!

yes Jeremy I read it....I hope the comma head forms over my house!...lol ************ We do too!! Jeremy

My prediction for here is 5 inches.

"We do too!! Jeremy"

LOL its possible...I like how this storm is shaping up!

If I had one thing to say about this next storm..... slow down and start at 4pm so I can watch the whole thing! Instead of being at work.. LOL. ************* I'd love for it to slow down too! My wife and kids are flying to Milwaukee Thursday morning and leaving KCI at 8am. They were going to fly back to watch the Packers in the Super Bowl with family. Opps...guess that isn't happening:) Jeremy

Is it safe to say , we all hate it when someone predicts a big storm and a few flakes fall down??? Or when we hear we're going to get "hammered" run to the store for supplies and zip, we get an inch???  I watch Gary and the news team because they DO try to get it right, not just feed into our wantings of having a big snow event..I've watched long enough to understand updates are coming when needed and warrented..I think Gary would love to blog...snow totals for the entire k.c. metro to exceed 12"..!!!!!!

Scott,

I agree!  When 90% of our snow falls are between 1-4 inches in the KC Metro area, it really isn't going out on a limb to say that our predicted snowfall will be in this range.  

With that being stated, I think Gary and others don't want jump the gun on predicting a larger amount of snow...and that comes from previous experiences.  I remember a snow storm last year where Gary came on at 10 and was excited about the possibility of 19-20 inches of snow for the metro, and the next morning, that amount of snow had not materialized. He then spent the day explaining about dryslots and other factors that limited the amount of snow.  

I think he doesn't want to look inaccurate in the face of so many viewers by picking a larger amount of snow, and not having it happen...

But, if he predicts smaller amounts and we get more, some people will be upset with him...

I guess it is a tough life to a weathercaster...there is absolutely no way to make everyone happy.

Finally,  I am really impressed by the storm showing up next week, seems to have more moisture and better probability of producing a nice round of snow.

****************** Being a Meteorologist is great...there is always about half the viewers that love what we have to say:) So far this winter our storm forecasts have been extremely accurate...the track record speaks for itself. Hopefully everyone that wants a lot of snow see's it on Thursday. Jeremy

Brent:  I understand your watching the highest total stations.... you cant help it, but what is better, know what is going to happen and count on it, or a fake fantasy creating no sleep and massive dissapointments?
I know you will HOPE you do see your snow tomorrow.  But after years of disapointments , dont do that to yourself!  
You WILL see snow tomorrow.  How about that!

I couldn't agree more Fred..I remember well the 20" snow that never happened.. I couldn't even get a refund on the snow shoes or the dog sled team :)

I hope it starts snowing early enough in KC to have classes cancelled if it is going to be bad to drive in tomorrow.  I have class early and am done in the mid-afternoon.  I am so scared driving in the snow, and not very good at it either.  A 2:00 am start would better than a 6:00 am start.  For my sake, anyhow.

Jeremy,

I agree, you have been very accurate compared to the record of the "others."

I am also sure that if the models indicate more snow for the metro, you will go with more snow for the metro...

Finally, I know you were the first to predict this storm, and you will be the last to make snowfall predictions, because you want to get it right.
************** Thanks for the kind words. Although I think we put 1-4" out there days ago...we are working on fine tuning that amount this afternoon for the newscasts and blog. Jeremy

Just a comment of snowfall variations and Mother Nature's capriciousness on where it's going to fall, a number of years ago, western Shawnee was hit with a band of 6-8" heavy, wet, white stuff one day.....and the rest of the metro area didn't even get a dusting.  Family and people at work would not believe me, and since Gary lived out here then, I just told everyone to watch the news that night...I'm sure he'd have photos.  He did.  Most freakish snowfall I've ever seen.

Inlimbo--LOL.

I know, I was very excited about his forecast, and really upset when it didn't happen....

Fred

The same snowfall range by Gary this close to the event leads me to believe it's still a WAG (wild ass guess) for anyone to speculate on higher snow totals.  I respect that he's not throwing out specific numbers he doesn't feel comfortable with.  However, I hope he has a little more precision for snow totals for this evenings news.  The difference on the roads between 1" and 4" is huge. ************** Gary started to narrow things down with his 11:30am update. I'm pretty sure you can look for a detailed snow map at 5pm. Jeremy

I think instead of a forecast blog, i'll start a postcast blog...i'll always be right and everyone will love me :)

Weather Team:  being a basketball referee for over 20 years, i completely understand your tough position!  No matter what you call, 50% will be happy, 50% mad....keep up the good work!

I'm an idiot and didn't read Gary's update prior to my comments.  Anyway, I was just thinking that at least for this storm we're not worrying about weather it will be cold enough to snow.

Jeremy, can I ask you about a statement you made above?

"To be fair to Gary...he talked about this one day having a storm almost a month ago."

Are you referencing the 45 day forecast?

"The series of wet and strong storm systems that affected us in October and again in December will return.  I think they will be even stronger this time.  And, the Arctic air will be around for each of the storm systems.  We will have at least 4, and perhaps as many as 7 storm systems between January 25th and February 20th."

Tell me where January 31st is referenced in "he talked about this one day having a storm"

I am not picking on anyone.  I believe the LRC to be a useful and valid tool in general.  I am very sensitive to claims being made based on the LRC based 45 day forecast.  Is the trend valid - YES.  Were there specific dates named for storms - NO.

As most people know, my main points of critique have moved from the validity of the cycle to that of the promotion and communication of it.

I am just going to sit back and see what happens tomorrow.  I am not making any predictions.  I missed on some storms in December.

Kristi

I am wondering what is it looking like for the Olathe Area? It seems that many of the snowfall predictions are measured going from nw to se, excluding prediction for other areas of the metro.

nastyweather, you are not an idiot.  And I still agree with your general premise.  Even with the updated entry that is referenced at 11:30, we still have 1-4 inches.

When questioned, this was the response at 12:30.

"Scott,

We are still in the 1-4 inch range.  

Gary

January 30, 2008 12:33 PM "

Yes, the update gives more bounds to bands, but the totals did not change.  And that is ok based on the fact that it is so variable right now.  I don't like it, but I do understand the right to stay with it.

We have ranges from two trusted weather sources with a combined range of 1-7 inches.  [here and the NWS].

Guess we will see what happens.

Brent,

Nevermind Harrisonville for snow.  Here is where you can go to get snow!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080130/ap_on_re_mi_ea/mideast_snowstorm

Two Mideast snow storms in one year....hahaha

The NWS listened to the complaints from the public regarding their undermeasuring of snowfall at KCI and have corrected the problem.  Yesterday they recorded .03" of precipitation and one inch of snowfall.  That's a 33:1 ratio.  Pretty interesting stuff.

Scott,

NWS updated their Hazardous Weather Outlook to 4-8 inches along the I-70 Corridor and points south...

You are right, guess we will just have to see what happens, but you really can't miss with a range from 1-8 inches.

Fred

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR...AND AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 INCHES SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. TRAVEL FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND
BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

Well even the NWS in Tulsa is showing high snow totals far south of here.  It will tick me off IF SW Missouri and NW Arkansas get 7-8" of snow and we get a regular serving of 2-3".

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/images/hwo.png

"
You are right, guess we will just have to see what happens, but you really can't miss with a range from 1-8 inches."

Fred -

Of course, now it is going to be a dusting or 9+ inches. ************ Not sure why you just said that. Gary gave areas that would see more than others and was specific. Sorry if the totals aren't as high as some would like at this moment. As I mentioned earlier Gary will give detailed snow amounts on the 5pm show. Where is everyone when we give 1" snow bands the last few storms and were pretty much dead on? Tough crowd today:) Jeremy

Weatherteam.

I live in S. KC, work in W. Shawnee.  Tomorrow do I drive in to work (start at 7am) or work from home.  Also tomorrow is my son's 1st birthday, staying home would be awesome for him!!  I know the LRC, but does it mean anything that this same type of storm occured last year as he was being born?  I did beat the storm to the hospital though.
Thanks. *********** Stay home and enjoy the 1st birthday if possible! I have a one year old and a two year old. The LRC this year is not related to last year. Jeremy

mpdexter, as a basketball coach I believe you are wrong 75% of the time!


:-)

curious if we'll get upgraded to a warning???

Folks, the RUC cuts off this ULL at midnight tonight.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_20km_oper/.//+sa+am+12

And based on the surface on up..it looks well stacked.

To follow up on nastyweather's comments. Various NWS offices in Oklahoma, Kansas (Wichita, Topeka), Missouri (KC, Springfield, St. Louis), Arkansas and Illinois are predicting widescale snow events exceeding 4".  Each is predicting that the heaviest amounts will fall in their forecasting area.  This may be the most widespread heavysnow event in the modern history of the central United States.  It may even rival the previous record events of December 15 and December 22 way back in 2007, when many of them predicted the same thing.   ************** Let's see the final totals before we put this one down in the history books. Anything is possible though. Jeremy

This ULL is building in front of our very eyes.  It is closing off much sooner than first thought.  It will indeed be a signficant snow maker.

Jeremy -

I think you took that interaction wrong.  Fred was talking about the NWS statement, not your blogposts.  I was just joking that even with the 1 - 8, the NWS would be wrong.  Just fun and jokes.  I have no real rooting interest... once it gets above a couple inches I gotta shovel the driveway no matter what. ************* OK...I've been in and out and missed a little of the interaction:) Jeremy

I am ready to go up to 4-6.  5-8 is not out of the question.

Scott, I see what you're saying but from looking at the RUC from NCEP I don't see it closing off.  I believe we're looking at the same information, just in different graphical formats.  

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr3/images/ruc_500_012l.gif

Thanks Luther!

That's was my intent Jeremy, I wasn't trying to be rude...

I also have no rooting interest, like Luther, I get to shovel no matter what, my wife wouldn't have it any other way!

One thing about it, snow in the forecast sure gets us all talking  

Jeremy/Gary,

Holy cow, while this storm will be fun...look at the next one per the GFS MOS.  Look at the 24 hr total on Feb 4th for the GFSX.  LOL

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KMCI

GFSX MOS (MEX)
KMCI   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/30/2008  1200 UTC                      
FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
     THU 31| FRI 01| SAT 02| SUN 03| MON 04| TUE 05| WED 06|THU CLIMO
N/X  21  27| 14  34| 24  39| 23  34| 29  40| 21  31| 15  32| 19 20 40
TMP  24  22| 16  30| 27  33| 25  32| 32  35| 23  26| 17  29| 22      
DPT  15  16| 13  18| 19  22| 21  30| 28  27| 19  16| 13  16| 17      
WND  16  15| 12  13| 14   7|  8  18| 19   9|  9  14| 12  12| 12      
P12  42  80| 30   3|  9  13| 10  35| 50  31| 39  42| 24   8| 14 18 16
P24      80|     30|     13|     42|     56|     63|     30|       26
Q12   1   2|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   1|  2   2|       |        
Q24       2|      0|      0|      1|      2|      3|       |        
T12   3   1|  0   0|  2   1|  3   2|  8   3|  4   2|  3   0|  3      
T24        |  1    |  2    |  3    | 10    |  7    |  4    |  3      
SNW       4|      0|      9|      9|      9|       |       |  

Brent - where do you live?

I was just wondering, what time is it going to start snowing in the KC Metro Area?

I was just wondering, what time is it going to start snowing in the KC Metro Area?

Jeremy - Probably missed it earlier. . . but did you or someone say about when it was going to start?  And is rush hour going to be just horrible (driving in from the south and east) or will that be just a ligther band?  Sorry if you said it earlier - I've been gone a bit and there are almost 200 posts here! ************* Estimating on a whole around 6am. West and southwest areas a bit quicker. Jeremy

Kelli, i believe it was between 4am and 6 am if i'm not mistaken

This is a wicked little storm.  Looking at the RUC lower levels, the iso contours are very uniform, but not smooth.  

Gary is great at drawing these out.  Very good at synoptic drawings..maybe if he has time.

Jeremy - I love the snow and I hope we get lots of it tomorrow.  But honestly, I am ready for a little spring time weather.  I am ready for some good fishing.  Did you ice fish in the great white north?

Don  

So what do ya think guys, snow day tomorrow?  I can hear the kids yelling already!  Kind of sad I had a good lesson plan for tomorrow but I can always use sleeping past 6:30.  So  you guys looking ahead to the next storm, does it look vicious? Like vicious snow or ice?  Let me know I need to get some wood coming if so!  :)

Scott, do you think the storm on Mon will be bigger than tomorrow? Or the biggest one south KC gets this year? just curious what you think.

I'm curious IF the NWS will start issuing Winter Storm Warnings for tomorrow and what areas.

Too soon to tell.  It has potential...but then again, we have known that for quite awhile.

It should follow a similar track as this one and will have more time for moisture return.

nastyweather...warnings along and south of I70 and will be out by 330PM

The moisture bank is open.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us_loop-12.html

updated snow amounts on NWS!!  Looks like south is going to get it!!  Jim in Clinton

I hope the storms tracks a little further north so we can get some more snow here in Marceline. If it doesnt I hope a heavy band of snow sets up over us and we get at least 4"

Scott,

Looks like any shift will cause KC Metro to have a little higher amount of snow.

I like what I am seeing with the moisture we are going to have to work with as well.  

We are right on the edge of a good amount of snow...

Also, great job Scott, you said 3-5.

I wonder if Gary agree's with what we're seeing now??? Looking forward to the next update

We are heading to St. Louis tomorrow around noon for a funeral for my Grandpa. We are leaving around noon heading 70 East.

What should we expect?

We went through the blizzard on 29 North through St. Joe. So we are experienced if you will. :-) ************* Sorry to hear that... Please drive safe. There will be accumulating snow. Maybe a couple of inches on the ground or a little more by the time you leave. If you can leave early. Jeremy

two things to keep in mind before you all get too high on the models.  first of all, the most similar storm to this one was supposed to go further south than it actually did.  now, i dont think its going to curl up and nail saint joe or anything, but i would expect a slow northward progression...which given the current forecast track, it really bodes will for KC.

secondly, the same storm before didnt produce the snow where it was forecasted either.  in fact, the previous advisories were in nearly the exact same location then as they are now...and they got very little if any snow down south around I-44.  this storm certainly looks different, but as the say goes: once bitten, twice shy...

that being said, we only need .5" at kci to end the month above average for snowfall.  i think its safe to say that we will get atleast that much. **************** PVT...please keep us updated on your snow total tomorrow. I will be at work Thursday and every comment will be answered! The entire team works tomorrow...no one has a day off on Thursdays or Fridays. Jeremy

KCHusker - Lots of snow and idiots driving too fast and sliding off the highway.

I think Jeremy just said a couple of inches...i guess we can rule out the "1" inch amount :) ************* I'm not making the forecast...but I-70 goes east of KC. Just want them to be prepared. Gary will update WxPlus in about 30 mins and then hopefully the blog shortly after. Enjoy the sun and temps near 30 for one hour and then come back in and you'll see the new GFS and some new thoughts. Jeremy

Good comments Pvt.  I agree...if the storm slowly tracks further north, people in KC Metro could be in for a major winter event.  

This storm reminds me of one about five years ago, the south was to get a ton of snow, and throughout the day, the storm drifted slowly north and Blue Springs, Lee's Summit, etc. got about 8 inches of snow...

I know we don't like the NAM here, but does the latest run concern anyone? It looks to me like it gives us close to nothing. I hope I am looking at the wrong thing, because that doesn't look good at all for snow! I realize the others aren't out yet, but do you think it could be the start of a trend?

David

Not trying to be a dork, but I just heard this on one of my preschooler's shows:

"Whether the weather is cold,
whether the weather is hot,
we'll weather the weather,
whatever the weather,
whether we like it or not!"

In other words, we need to wear our big kid panties and deal.  I love living here where we get a little taste of EVERY kind of weather!  And thanks to Gary, Jeremy, Brett, and the blogger "meteorologists," we get a darned good forecast!!

I rather enjoy watching and waiting to see who had the best guess forecast of all of you bloggers - keep up the good work!!

Shelly

Dwxtracker I believe the graphic below is what you're referring to and I don't believe it at all.  The NAM has been totally unreliable for winter weather forecasts.  Now if the GFS says this, then I will think we're screwed.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p36_036m.gif

The NAM has been very inconsistent this winter.  That's why very little attention is paid to it.

Kristi

Nastyweather, that's exactly what I was talking about. Really doesn't look good! I hope the GFS comes in with a better solution.

David

I guess my mom and I will be shoveling tomorrow...  When you have four little dogs, you gotta shovel for even an inch of snow.  If we get any more than 4 inches, I am gonna be outside a lot tomorrow. :)

Kristi

Good afternoon once again weather team!!!

How is everybody holding up?? I think maybe today is crazier than yesterday!!!

A couple more random observations-I'm not sure if these really matter in the scheme of things, but just soemthing I've noticed:

1. I keep harping on this, but on the 20Z surface charts, that surface low looks to be located around Wakeeney, Kansas-the 12Z GFS had it about 200 miles SW of that position. This may not have much meaning in how this plays out, but I think it will be interesting to see what the 18Z and more importantly to me the 0z shows this feature-I just can't help but to think that this could have implications on how the model is extrapolating the data

2. The 18Z RUC compared with the 12Z GFS to me looks stronger in the development of the upper level low-i.e.at 6Z Thursday the latest RUC is trying to close off the upper low where as the 12Z GFS was not-also, it appears that the RUC is a bit North

3. On the Water Vapor Imagery, it appears that currently the Low is forming over the 4 corners region and not into New Mexico.

Ok-these are just some random observations-I will be honest, I want to see a good snow (like there would be any question LOL) but that is not why I keep bringing these things up-it is goiong to be what it is going to be-but I just can not see on the models or on the satelite what is making that low take a southerly track like the models are showing-to me, it should shoot out of the 4 corners and track right along the Kansas/Oklahoma Border into southern Missouri and not even touch Arkansas.

Ok, I have for sure just steped out beyond the line of where I should stay and have prob. just shown how much I really don't know LOL but I just really think that this is going to take slightly more north track than what the models are indicating. Again, these are just the observations from a histroy teacher and should not be considered to carry in weight what so ever LOL

Have a great day team-I'm sure I will be blogging again tonight!!! Is that a good thing or bad thing I hear you ask LOL

Bill in Lawrence

--------------

Bill,

Don't look at the new NAM, you better have a model ban!

Gary

Scott, I appreciate your insight, analysis, and ideas on today’s blog.  The way everyone is posting links to weather related information demonstrates how much this blog has help to educated people about weather.  

Pvt_Murphy: It was not my intention to cause you any distress with a previous blog entry if I did; I apologize.

(Hope this posts)
This from the other stations' blog (head meteorologist)...on TUESDAY...

"The new model data has wobbled farther south. Considering the amount of dry air entrained into the north side of this system..I think this is quite plausible.  If course the storm is still offshore, and the next 2 model runs, will hopefully shed more light on exactly where this storm will mature...but to me...this looks like a situation where we will be on the northwestern edge of the snow shield.  I have not seen the new GFS yet...but HPC has been skeptical of the GFS track for the past 24 hours, if not more...so we'll see where it trends overnight."

I'd say he went out on that proverbial limb making that statement 36 plus hrs out ?

Gary/Jeremy--I am not an expert at all looking at all the maps others look at but I see from what Bill in Lawrence, Scott and Nastyweather and others have said and then I went to the sites and looked myself---the surface low does appear to be farther north.  Usually a track along southern Kansas and then dipping upward towards KC and into Missouri means a fair snow.   Topeka to KC might get the 3-5 but like everyone has said this is a tough call.  The moisture is there and just an easy observation the wind here in Topeka is straight out of the east.  That has been a sign of foul weather!  Next week does look bad. Would that be the December 22 storm if this storm tonight is related to the December 14th which is what it is! Looking forward to your updates.  Michael/Berryton/Topeka

kristi, did you really just say you shovel for the dogs?
lol

Must be some of them little ankle biters!

I can relate Kristi, i have a 4lb Yorkie and also have to shovel for even a little bit of snow!!!!

Topeka NWS is saying 3-6 in topeka and 4-7 in counties south.  Have issued WSW just south of Topeka.  EAX should be next.

New to the blog....Greetings.

I noticed the nws just upped the watch to a warning for douglas and franklin counties.

Im thinking 3-7 with isolated areas getting 7+. I can see the Missouri River from my house so I count myself in on the Winter Storm Watch. Gary, when do you think the heaveast of snow will fall and how much do you think that Parkville will have? I havent seen any maps.

 
shellmeister   I soo miss that show.. Little Bear.  I was trying to remember that a few days ago, and could not find the tape anywhere.  Thanks for reminding me of that.

Can't wait to see what actually happens tomorrow.  Going to be watching very closely.

Stacy

Doug,
Yes, we have to shovel for our dogs.  We have four chihuahuas...  Yes, they can be ankle biters. LOL  

My dog, Tinkerbell, is usually in my lap while I am at the computer.

Kristi

its all good northlander, i have thick skin...and a thick skull(or so i am told)

Yes, updated snowfall amounts for Parkville. 3-5 inches! Im jealous of you guys down south, but its your turn for the snow. Down south, you guys havent got much snow, looks like you will tommorrow. 3-5 inches will definatley satisfy me here in Parkville.

We have a border collie, some sort of hound mix and a small beagle - The border collie hops lke a rabbit in the snow, even the big ones over a foot and the hound just ploughs through it.  Don't know about the beagle since we haven't had a big one since he wandered up to live with us!  But he's only about 8-9" tall!  Should be fun!

Does anybody see a dry slot? Seems like that's the thing that happened last time.  Ethalo was talking about the "dry air" - is that the same thing?

Finally the south areas will get their due;)

No more mentioning of the "D" word, Rog. :)

Kristi

Sounds like this is that "widespread 6" snow" -- but the "6 inch" part is a bit south of Kansas City.

What's up - do the snow gods not like Kansas City or something? Our window for a 6"+ snow in the metro is closing... especially if next week's system is warm and rainy.

WSW for south part of metro.

Kristi

Winter Storm Warning in Kansas for:
Douglas County
Franklin County
Osage County
Lyon County
5-7 inches of snow possible with blowing and drifting snow by the afternoon with 10-20mph winds.

KRISTI,
I TOO HAVE A CHIHUAHUA AND WHILE I LOVE THE SNOW IT REALLY CAN BE AGGREVATING TRYING TO GET LITTLE DOGGIES TO GO OUT THERE.  I LIVE NORTH OF THE METRO ABOUT AN HOUR SO MAYBE IT WONT BE SO BIG :)

Well someone tell me this?  With NWS just issuing a Winter Storm Warning, and there new statement for Topeka/Lawrence moving the totals up for them isn't that going to up the totals for KC Metro as well.  I forsee WSW coming for the rest of us pretty quick.

Littlenorth,
None of our dogs are real fond of cold and snow...  They have to wear coats when they go out.  The dogs go out and come back in quickly.  Makes it easy on us humans. :)  (We go out with them each and every time.)

Kristi

1800 GFS....  NOT GOOD!!  Hope it's wrong.  Shows the city in a band of snow 2" tops.  Surely this won't happen again!!

Matt.

Platte County should be added to the WSW... ************ Not so fast...I think the Snow Advisory covers it fine. Gary/Jeff are putting together some new info for the shows. Make sure to watch. Keep in mind let's not say who is right and who is wrong until the totals are added up tomorrow PM. Jeremy

Gotcha Kristi!  I'm sorry!  I take it all back!  :)

Johnson County is under a winter storm warning!

In other words, KC gets the shaft on snow.....AGAIN!

well it looks like all of South of KC are in the warning, hmmmm

ok. i WON

I PUT DOWN 5-8 INCHES FOR KC. MY MODELS PUT DOWN 5-8 INCHES OF SNOW FOR US. THEREFORE YOUR WINNER AND STILL CHAMPION OF SNOW FALL TOTALS CHFS327. I WANT MY SODA

WSW now for west central missouri, also!

DUE TO THE Nws accaulaly looking at my models they also picked 5-8 inches. we will be under a winter storm warning as of 6PM tonight

"Keep in mind let's not say who is right and who is wrong until the totals are added up tomorrow PM"

No, no, Jeremy. First the verdict, then the trial! just like in Alice in Wonderland.

Just noticed one of the "other" news stations is starting their morning show an hour early because of the "upcoming snow event"

Where'd ya go Heavy Snow?  Aren't you happy?  I'm thinking maybe everyone is wrong . . . and it's gonna stall right over all of us and just snow and snow and snow!!   A friend emailed me pictures of winters in Romania, to keep things in perspective - awesome.  They were digging cars out of snow that was 30 feet deep - kind of have to wonder exactly where they're gonna drive!  Shots from windows taken inside their homes - and their houses are under snow!  Guess we'll never see that around here!  Ha ha.

Its the south sides' turn now :)

If you look at the GFS Topeka's WSW is more justified... but you may also notice that that .25" QPF shield abruptly comes to a halt prior to making it NE into the metro.

I sure hope Gary, Jeremy, and Brett are not sitting back laughing at us in south KC and thinking we are nuts for going along with these high snow totals!

will Platte County and Clay County be under a WSW later tonight?

I just read the Winter Storm Warning for Johnson County,KS. They said that we will get 5-8" and treacherous conditions. Does the weather team think this is a reasonable forecast?

You guys might want to at least give some consideration to the fact that the GFS model that just came out said we will get very little snow before you get too excited about what the NWS is saying.  I hope the 5-8" prediction is correct, but the 2 main models both now are showing us getting less than 2" in the city......Looking forward to seeing what Gary has to say..


Matt.

Foodl3, What's a QPF shield and waht does it mean for it to halt before coming NE?

Kellyann - you don't REALLY think they're actually laughing at us do you?  That'd be too cruel!

I thought everyone said the GFS was the one that was usually incorrect?

If gary is going to make a post comparing the December 15th storm to this storm tomorrow, it only seems fair to ask him about how he now puts us in a 46 or 47 day cycle instead of 54 days.  I'm not looking for a dissertation on the topic, but at least a hint of what the deal is.  

So as of 4pm with snow starting in 12 hours, are you guys still on the 1-4" thing? ************* Jerry, I clearly addressed this earlier today when you asked the same question 2-3 times. Please bring this up on Friday, Gary will be more than happy to answer then. Jeremy

Oh, sorry - got that backwards.  And Bill in Lawrence said quite a few posts ago he sort of thought we were all wrong - and thought he was out of place saying it!  He might be the one who was right!  I'm wearing black tomorrow.  And Friday.  I'm in mourning.

No, it's the NAM that hasn't handled things well this winter..  The GFS has done pretty well.


Matt.

RogOzSam,
The NAM has been incorrect often this winter.

Rog...LOL..Im sure they could at least be raising eyebrows!

mattmaisch- I do not believe the GFS at all, just look at the moisture, QPF, etc... charts. I said early today, when I was talkin with Scott, I thought we would see 4-5 inches in south KC and that was on the low end and I still think that.

By QPF shield I am refering to the following map how it paints portions of east central Kansas (including Topeka/Lawrence) in a .25" to .5" QPF band, while it only gives Kansas City .1 to .25" ... based on these numbers that would leave the KC Metro area with, at the highest end, 3" of snow. Given the GFS model is so left-field from every other forecast model, I would not count on Kansas City getting more than 2 1/2" of snow.

I think the NWS is realllly over-estimating this storm system. And probably part because they under-estimated Tuesday's system perhapse they are under more pressure.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p60_066l.gif

f00dl3,
Kansas City never seems like it is in a favorable position for heavy snow events. All factors have to be perfectly alligned.

Well, I'm still not sure about this storm.  The models say south, but the snow track this year has been north.  In most recent years the snow track has been south. But again, this year it has been north.  I guess I will lay in the corner in the fetal position until the 00Z models come out...

Mike

f00dl3...

You and I are along the same line..

Matt

F00dl3, the QPF has really took a dive from late this morning when I was talking to Scott about it. Maybe my 4-5 inches wont be off.

It seems to be trending south more than the NWS wants to believe.   I think the original models will hold true this round and the I-44 corridor will get the brunt, along with southern KS.   It just seems to want to track enough away from us to bring the really high totals.    I hope I am wrong and the models are messing with my head again... but when it gets this close, I cant just throw them out!!

Foodl and Matt - you talk about the Metro - seems like it pretty much always has been just a few inches - what about parts south and east?  Warrensburg?  Sedalia? Those areas?  Won't they be getting the most and then the closer to actual KC Metro, the less?

New blog is out.