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So the storm is less than 12 hours away ...are you still sticking with 1-4" like the storm from December 15th?  And how is the LRC working if that storm was only 47 days ago, not 54 days?

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Jerry,

The LRC isn't perfectly 54 days.  It is working quite well! 

Gary

This is quite dissapointing. However, the 18Z GFS still paints about .20-.50 inches of QPF for areas of eastern Kansas. It seems like the system falls apart quite a bit when it gets over to MO. That is not that surprising to me.

wonderful :(

This stinks, I doubt we will get much of anything here up north... :{

As I watch people today, they don't have the 'deer in headlights' look that often proceeds a winter event. People are behaving as though it was any other Wednesday. Maybe the Snow God is right....its going to miss us.

Yup, my last post on the other blog says it all.   The models have to be trusted more this close to impact.   The NWS will have to really alter their map.   I will still hold out hope, but am a realist.

Doing the happy dance of no snow joy!!  I had already planned to take the day off, just in case...I just dont want it to do that "still yucky when you drive but not enough to stay home" thing that it tends to do.  Either snow, or no snow : )  With only 3 vacation days left until April, I'm happy to save it if I can.

So when did the december ice storm repeat?

radman22,
I still think areas of eastern Kansas where the WSW is in effect will get more snowfall than areas further north and east. I am still guessing 2-5 inches for areas of eastern Kansas.

Gary:

LOL on the model ban!!! To be honest, I have not looked at the NAM in about a month after I read where the NCEP is going to retool it and reissue a new product around mid February-I most likely do this at my own peril (well as much peril as a hobbyist can get him/herself into LOL) but  after I read that I kind of quit looking at it and also considering it has just been horrid for this area this winter I just haven't given it much credence.


1. I still wonder about the issues regarding the model extrapolations since the 18Z GFS still has miss initialized that surface low that is in Central Kansas. Probably does not mean a thing but I still wonder.

Leaving the models alone-a few other random thoughts:

2. A note about the dry air: our dew points are actually higher than any where with in a 200 mile radius-on the 21Z surface observations our dew points are in the 20's where as in Oklahoma they are in the single digits and teens-we are for sure moistening up in this area

3. The latest water vapor imagery to me is really showing that Upper Level Low forming over the 4 corners right now and the higher cloud tops are developing over central Colorado as well as a moisture/cloud feed developing from the Texas Pan Handle heading directly North East-at least I think that is what I am seeing!!!

4. We have an incredibly stiff East wind here right now and the clouds are rapidly increasing. It for sure looks more like snow outside right now than it has on a few of our other events. In fact, if there were no models, one would assume that a storm is a brewing right now

5. The birds have sat down-there is not a bird or a mammal (accept us silly humans) anywhere-they are hunkered down-Old Urban legend I know, but there is no doubt that birds know when the weather is about to turn-ever notice how when the birds begin to chirp the storm ends real soon afterwards??


Just some random observations-in the end, this will be what it is going to be and I will be happy just seeing snow!!! The fun part for now (until one gets to play in it!!!!) is looking at it and throwing out ideas!!!

Again, I hope I have not gone too far over the line with all the harping about the surface low and satellite etc. as for sure, I am just a hobbyist and these ideas are just that-ideas!!! LOL Thanks for taking the time to read all this today-I know you are incredibly busy!!!! Good luck and I hope you get some rest!!!

Have a great evening-one more look at the 0z runs, but getting close to now casting time!!! The models have thier ideas-the table is set-what will Mother Nature bring us for dinner-time to see!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

I don't know, it sounds like this is driving you a bit nuts with all of the references to animals.  Jeff and I are going across the street to the park right now to see how the squirrels are acting.

Gary

I wouldn't discount this storm until the 0Z models come out!!!
However, I do believe the NWS went overboard with the WSW/amounts.

Like this should come as a surprise to any of us that are regular bloggers.  It's always been "stick with your first forecast" and that first forecast was for a 1-4" event.  

I've been watching the models all day long and I have NO IDEA where the NWS is getting their data to post such an absurd amount of snow for this area.  5-8" for the south metro??  Come on!!  Where is the moisture going to come from... it's just not there in ANY of the models you look at it.  

I've gotten to the point where I plan my "storm day" around what Gary initially tells us.  The NWS always inflates the amounts... and though Gary will tend to increase a little from time to time, he NEVER follows the trend that the "other guys" do by following the NWS.  

My dad used to tell me, "always go with your first instinct"... and I think that is definitely the case when it comes to KC weather!!  Keep up the good work Gary!!

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Thanks, and it is quite stressful when those other forecasts come out like they just did.  And, if there is legitimately any significant chance of a big storm we will be the first ones to let you know.

Gary

Gosh, where did Scott go, he sure has gotten quiet!

Gary has not been excited about this storm at all.  We will get 1 to 4 inches in the metro per Gary.

Kristi

Come on snow!!!!!!!!

Come on snow!!!!!!!!

Modelitis alert.  Many sick bloggers.  LOL

Trends everyone, not just one run.  For those of you that are sick with the horrible meteorlogical disease, try looking at more than just one model.  And not just the ones on the NCEP page.

Most importantly, as Gary has reminded me several times in the past.  Look out the window.  And in this context I am saying..look at the current surface obs.

Too many people are taking one run by one model as the gospel.  

If all fails and none of this sounds good...try the LRC.  

;-)

Bill - great obs.  

WeatherFreak - "The NWS always inflates the amounts"  Sounds good - can you prove that fact over the last few years of events?

I still am not sure the NWS is off with this.  The ULL is forming a bit sooner than first expected.  Bill gets the observation of the day...

"I still wonder about the issues regarding the model extrapolations since the 18Z GFS still has miss initialized that surface low that is in Central Kansas"

the scary thing is while yes the NAM is usually way off I think it's actually the one that has had it south of us all along.

I'm guessing that at this point we down on the southeast side won't be seeing much accumulations?? Bummer...

hmmmmmm well i agree with weatherfreak, i think that 1-4 inches is really a good prediction, however i want there to be more, i would like there to be more snow but 4 inches alone would be more than weve ever gotten here in south leawood in one storm!!! sooo i pretty freaking excited for this storm!!

i do find it very intersting that ur in-house model isnt really picking anything up on the snow, but i truly hope for the BEST!!! i love the snow!!!

but the only thing i love more than snow is severe weather!!! Gary, wat do u think is gonna happen this spring???? intense early storms??? im anxious to find out!

I posted last week that my dad was to have surgery the 21st and I was worried about it snowing that day. His surgery was postponed till Mon. the 4th....   please no snow!  I am a snow wimp but this is the one time I wish to be able to be there and help my parents out!!!  waaah, no snow Monday and Tuesday!  

If the trends continue like this, I am not going even to look at the blog again till the snow ends. I may not even watch the weather at all. I am going to go with the nws on this one mostly because I like the heavier snow totals

I surely hope the models are wrong...

Braysmama,
I still think you could at least get a couple of inches.

Gary -- No snow?  Ouch.  Thanks, I know that is painful for you to type. ;)

Kansas city just sucks peroid, no jobs anymore, dieing city, and no good snow storms

Doug... figures that the NAM would finally get it right on a storm that we HOPED it would be wrong on... like all the others.  :-)

There was several people on this blog this morning who watch "other" weather forcasts and reported how one station was crazy because they said KC might not get anything in  some locations and others might get a few inches....Maybe for once that station was right...just like Gary said 1-4 all along. Amazing how Gary is so so right all the time! What a guy!

Wow, no snow at all on the in-house models? Same time NWS says 5-8"? ???

I think we all need to take a deep breath here, given 18z models do not tend to do as well as the morning and evening runs (given the injection of upper air observations) I wouldn't even consider their solutions right now.  Lets wait till you see the evening models to make and suggestions.  Any interjection right now is just childs play

The potential is there for big snows, but there is also the potential for big busts on either end of the snow accumulation scale.  Just goes to show you how difficult winter weather really is to forecast and how anyone can throw out a prediction and claim to be right.

My goat still wants the snow, he keeps pacing around waiting for it.

Won't it be interesting to see the NWS office in Pleasant Hill get a dusting when they were the one's that issued the Winter Storm Warning for their own county (Cass)???  LOL

You can never rule out any model anymore.

Kristi

Well here's the plan - wear boots and take a scraper!  That way I'll be covered either way!  I'm still optimistic that parts south and east are gonna get more -- just cause we WANT it more!  Come on to JoCoMO!

The NWS sucks getting my hopes up like that... Now I think we will be lucky if we get a dusting...

how can anyone get 1 inch out of this storm!!!!!!?

they are saying 5 to 8 inches here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I wish I could understand and follow this LRC . I see where things cycle through, but it sure don't seem as is moisture wise it is the same, thats what has me confused because I would think if things were like in Dec, there would be more of a storm and not South of here.

OMG! Brent is going to surely have a heart attack tonight or in the morning, lol...Please put a storm cloud over his house!!!!!

not liking the weathercast, ONLY 1 INCH FOR PARKVILLE! please tell me that is not going to happen...

Gary is sticking to 1 to 4 inches for the viewing area.  Brent, you could get 3 inches, according to Gary's forecast.  For the viewers down in Clinton, you could get 4 inches.

Kristi

Kristi, maybe your words will calm the boy down, lol...I would like some snow, but at the same time, I really am ready for spring!!!

what is with the winter storm warning?.....

are you still thinking Harrisonville will get 3 inches Gary?...
I watched the 5 pm weather...and it didn't look that impressive...

another station mentioned close to a foot of snow for southwest MO....I am traveling down there tomorrow and was wondering what the maximum you would expect down there would be....

do you think it can still move further north?

"   kellyann said:
OMG! Brent is going to surely have a heart attack tonight or in the morning, lol...Please put a storm cloud over his house!!!!! "

lol?......huh?

Brent, lol..if you are wanting snow, then ya better be planning on a trip. Is that why you are headed that way? jk!

Here is my prediction. And I'm not looking at some weather map. I don't need to look and dxt18 ,. ky 69 hxz or anything like that. I’m not some geeky engineer.  When you become dependent on technology to make predictions then you throw your hunches and good judgment out the window.  Now I’m the guy who coined the phrase "Johnson County Dome" for those of you who don't know. Meaning that here in Johnson County, we do get the shaft on the really good weather patterns.  

But as you know, the weather can change here on the drop of a dime. And I never have had any faith in weather maps. Cause honestly you can't predict the weather patterns no matter how good your technology is. And don't get me wrong I love tech toys. I love technology. But when you rely on it. Don't be surprised to be constantly disappointed.

I think we will get hit good on this one. We are due. The temps have been extremely low for the past few days.  Whatever falls will stay there and blow. Expect cars all over the roads and a massive vehicle pileup on I-35 or 435.  Blowing snow will cause visibility to be decreased dramatically. Schools will be closed. The salt trucks won’t get out in time and will wait till the last minute as usual.  It will be cold, windy and snowy so be prepared. This is Kansas, it should come to no surprise to anyone who has lived here most of their lives. If you use your instinct and good judgment along with the maps, then you will be in much better shape and less disappointed.

KC sucks, I want to move back to Boston.

Hello Gary, Just wondering what time in the morning do you think the snow will start here in downtown KC? Or will it start tonight? Thanks and keep up the great work

Gary, Do you think that the storm can still move farther north? What are the chances?

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I still think it will turn a bit farther north.

Gary

brian1234, Im glad Im in Missouri then! Keep your Ks weather, I don't want to see pileups anywhere! Just think, weather events bring pile-ups and death...It could be a family member of yours. That is sad you say you predict a big pile-up! I really hope you are wrong for anyone that is out driving tomorrow!

This is the last blog of mine I am not looking at this again till tomorrow night!  Brent,  lets hope nws is right for us!

Hey patssoxcelts,

Go back to Boston,. get in your caw, and drive back to hawbaw.

Noooooooooo. I would love a snow day right now.  Gary, use yuour super powers and make it snow.

kellyann.....i'm ready for spring myself.  But I think this time the weather might just surprise us and catch everyone off gaurd. Forcasters call for 2-5 inches of snow and we get a dusting. They call for 1-4 inches and we get hammered. it has happend many times in the past. They just don't talk about it. You always talk about when your right and never when your wrong and take responsibilty for it. Only take credit for when your right. That's just not this weather team but all weather teams in the country.

nah its a funeral...

brian1234, haha. I didnt want to sound like a gloomer, so COME ON SNOW!! BRING IT ON!

I am going to southwest MO for a funeral......looks like a lot of snow down there!

sorry to hear that Brent.

I dont know if I am the only one that has noticed this... but I believe every model has 1 fluke run that you can just not buy right before the storm, I think this is one of the runs.

All,

A little late, but I saw a video forecast on the NWS website just now.  They even say in the presentation that the snow amounts could move one way or the other because the storm is so strong.

Here is the link

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=webbriefing

Zeus

Temp is 22 dewpoint 12  65% hum.  So before anything falls we need some saturation. . . with a ENE wind that will not happen the wind will eat the snow away as it falls....OH WELL GET GET JIPPED this time.  Now focus you energy on Monday nite and Tuesday and hope the cold air will linger longer and make it snow not rain turning to snow. . . back to the old pattern of years gone by. . . GOD BLESS

twister11, i really hope that you are right. Gary thinks that it will turn farther north which is a good sign!

do you guys think lees summit will get 1-3? is that far south enough to get more like 4-5 ..trust me though i would rather have a dusting...c'mon spring!

It's really disturbing when a weather map get's the runs.

I think you will get a nice amount as well.

The GFS and NAM models haven't changed much through the day, really. GFS has been having Kansas City on the extreem eastern fringes of the heavier snow covering eastern and southeastern Kansas for the past 3 or 4 runs, and the NAM has been slowly moving KC out of the higher totals over the past 3 or 4 runs. I don't believe this is a model hicchup, this is a model trend.

I wonder why the NWS don't take us out of the WSW? That is midleading to a lot of people who do not know anything about weather.

We are definately due for a big snowstorm. Last post till later, got to watch that KSU vs. Kansas game!

We are definately due for a big snowstorm. Last post till later, got to watch that KSU vs. Kansas game!

Go KU!!!! even though my son goes to K state, lol...I went to KU!

foodl3,

Curious.  Actually the 12z NAM trended 100 miles further north with the low center than its 06z run.  If the 18z NAM went back south, then it is not a trend it is a flip-flop and probably why no one is using it because of its inconsistancy with this storm.

Zeus

oops, still do go. lol

kellyann,

How do you know its not going to snow what they say?  They likely had reasons why they issued it.  I'm sure if they think its not needed they would change it.

Zeus

If Ku and K-State played a game,.. Chuck Norris would win.

Good Evening Everyone!

I know this is going to sound a bit silly since it is just the weather and all, but I really have this horrible disappointing feeling inside me tonight. I really had my hopes set on this one being a good snowstorm for the Kansas City area.

Hopefully like another blogger said we will see the evening run come in and all will be well for snowfall around the KC area. As for the Advisories and Warnings issued today from the National Weather Service…it should be of no surprise as they usually jump the gun pretty quick on watches, warning, and advisories.

Who knows what will happen, but I have a feeling their will be a lot of disappointed people tomorrow about this time.

Good luck to the weather team on this one…I have the unfortunate feeling that you will get a lot of grief over this…even though you have no control over the outcome.

Bryan

Go Cats!

  weatherjaded said:
Steveluvs3 they need bread delivery men in warmer climates also.  How many people do you thinkg show up and wat to by cars in the snow?  Doesn't keep me from loving it

I think sellin cars and bread delivery is 2 totally different jobs, I bet yur in a nice warm sales office.!

I have lost all hope for a good snow in KC this winter. For me, a good snow is 5"+. I am feeling pretty depressed after getting excited and having my hopes crushed in this last entry. Well, I guess I'll take a break from weather before I have a breakdown! Gary, any chance of more snow, let me know. It will really bring my hopes up. I hate the way the weather turns out in KC.

Rock Chalk Jayhawk KU!!

Weather jaded,. Sorry man, but you need to either be Yoda or dyslexic to understand your message. Enable your spellchecker.

And winter tracker, maybe you need a date or a hobby. If the current weather patterns directly determine your mental state, perhaps you might want to visit with your local mental health provider.

As far as the weather folks. Lets just be patient. It's Kansas weather folks. It changes. It is what it is.

Wear is the old fashion 8  to 12 and sometimes more snowfall been this year. Not even in the Midwest has had this happen. Gary whats going on?