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2 inches in South KC.  Every snow we've had has been between a dusting and 2 inches.  More of the same.

Gary, I want to say good job staying calm with the craziness re: forecasting today. I know the snow has not fallen yet, but I trust your gut instinct.

3.5 inches for Lee's Summit
Jereme in LS

5.5"

Suburban Sam predicts ..... 3.75" at Children International 2000 E. Red Bridge Road (Corner of Red Bridge & Blue River Rd).

Looks like I'll be up early working the snow plow!

Sam.....

2" in Blue Springs (I sure hope I'm under estimating)

I am predicting that we don't get any snow...

I don't think we will get a darn thing in TOnganoxie.  very disappointing :(

If I don't get more or less than 6 inches and three quarters of snow,. I will go postal!!!

For god sakes people,. it's gonna snow.  and yes more than 2 inches........... somewhere ...... in the country.

My guess is that it might go a little further north than the models predict.  So I am going with 3-4 inches.....closer to the 3.

My prediction....80-70, KU over KSU.

Oh, wait, wrong blog. OK, 2 inches of snow for Lawrence (and hoping for 3x as much!)

I'd say for KC metro, around 3 and for me in Kingsville, around 3.5-if I'm lucky!

once again,.. if KU and K-State played ,. Chuck Norris would win.

Two inches in OP.

I'm going for 1.5" north of the river in Gladstone / near N. Oak & Barry Rd.

3" in Olathe. Gary, what if we did get an 8-12" snowstorm? Not with this storm per say, but anytime. Would you be happy? Would the majority of the bloggers be happy? If so, please let it be, then we can move towards spring and everyone will be happy. Except of course those unlucky souls who only got 7"..........

I predict, based on this information and possible comma head, w/ lrc
3" for Olathe, if comma head forms 6"

I predict, based on this information and possible comma head, w/ lrc
3" for Olathe, if comma head forms 6"

What a messed up situation!  

KU - 78
KSU -68

Oh yea, um 4.5 inches in Gardner

KU vs. KSU in 4 minutes! I will update those of you not watching the game after the game is over. Im thinking 2 inches for Parkville. I hope we get A LOT more though. Im a Mizzou fan so I am neutral.

5-8 inches in Olathe. I will stick with my model run that has only failed me 2wice since 2003

What I think we will get in southeaster Jhonson County is 5-9 inches of snow, that may be more to the SE. The least I think we will get is 3 1/2 inches to 7 inches of snow. There may be places that get a foot of snow, that is what I think.
 
  byan

Pitcher and Catchers in two weeks baseball season starts in 60 days.  With a dew point of 10 degrees and a strong ENE  wind of 22-27 mph its going to be hard to saturate unless this event just . . . goes totally wacko on us. . . it only warmed up to 23 today now 24 [that is when I knew it was going to be a bust. . .  it was 19 at lunch].  Topeka and other places in KS  reached the lower 30s what are their dewpoints?

This thing will need to just not follow any of the models for STJ to get more thaN one inch...by that I mean it will need to come out and ride the KS & OK border then turn NNE OR NE and slow down to allow for the gulf moisture to get involved in the system. . . but I am ore of the opinion that it will dig south . . . it will be the first time it happened all year. <<<<<<<<<<< OR IT JUST MIGHT GO POOF>>>>>>>>>>>

I'm going to say 1.5" in Lee's Summit.  I really hope we land up with much more than that, but you know how things go.  I think the NWS is making a big mistake on issuing a Winter Storm Warning.  A Snow Advisory is what I would issue.  But that's just me.  I hope new data is better.

Gary:

Massively LOL about the squirrels!! What did they tell you-they talk to me ya know!!! LOL

Great idea for a BLOG entry!!! Well, since I have been flapping incessantly all day about these surface observations I will stick to my guns and say 6 inches for Lawrence thinking this is going to track further north. Ya-I’m going to bust huge but some times you just have to go with it!!!! Can anyone hear that limb cracking-that scream you hear is me falling off that limb LOL!!!!

I hope I didn’t go too far today with all those posts-I was for sure kind out of my comfort zone/beyond my limits-that looks real obvious at this point huh!!!! LOL

I’m sure I will post later once I get the kids to bed and oh yea, grade some papers!!

Bill ya-the towel is in my hand but I haven’t thrown it yet in Lawrence

5 inches in LS hopefully im underestamating

I change my mind, why do only 3'' inch geusses come in usally. I want at least a foot. In the area I said will be around 3-10" of snow. There are many things that could change the amount of snow. I do think somewhere lucky will get a foot of snow. Do you think there will be bluevalley school closings?

 Byan.

My guess is 3" in OP  and even that might be a stretch.    

GO KU!!!!

The squirrels are talking to the bloggers now.  Is there a mental health professional here that can help???  LOL

Bill,

I certainly hope you are right, because if you get 6", we will likely get 4-5. But I guess we will just have to wait and see!

Oh, and your posts today have been very interesting, keep them up!!

David

SmithvilleWest predicts: 2.5 inches--about our average here for each of the many snow events so far this winter season.
My 6 year-old daughter (always a weather pessiminst) predicts: Less than 1 inch.

Oh ya, and my prediction for Lenexa is 2-3"

Schools will likely be in tomorrow.  IF we are lucky, we could get a 1/2 day, but that may be a streach, and is more likely to the south.  

Mother Nature really does not like us does she?  I guess we should just hope for at least an inch and be happy.  Just smile if it snows!

Gary...any new GOOD data?

1.5" in Greenwood. That's been the pattern out here so far this season.

I think we are do for a huge snowstorm. The model runs today I think were flukes. Dont despair people, the NWS has a good reason for predicting 4-8 inches.

I  think a dryslot will form and lees summit will get 1" kstate 79 ks 74.Reptiles and bugs can predict tornadoes.In reference to the bird/mammal blogger.

great game between KSU and KU by the way.

1.79 inches in Blue Springs

4" in Lenexa

Two inches here in south Raytown.

Kristi

I am going to say around 2-3 for the Lawson area.

Hmm, I predict 4-6 in Columbia, I hope! We should be getting more in columbia correct? The area of low pressure lifts a little further north between KC and us, hopefully.

And for Leavenworth i predict, 3 inches. KCI, 2.4 since the observers are losers.

my snowfall forcast is for 7-8"

5" around College and Pflumm.

I couldn't stay away, hmmm...... 7 inches in drexel, I hope, I plead, I beg,

If this is going to be a typical storm like we've had most of the winter, then I think it will go further south and if we even get snow that in itself will be a miracle.  

We are caught in the middle, as usual. :o)

OKay....I wil bite and throw out my non-weather-educated guess, LOL!!! I am going for 4 inches here. It is a lot of dreaming I know...but what the hey....I have nothing to loose. :o)
Monica
Pleasanton KS

Hmmm... every time they issue a winter storm warning we get next to nada.  I'll go for 1/2 inch here by the stadiums.  

When will the new data come in?

Its happened when the storm quickly intensified and all the snow was in Nebraska. I believe that was last year. All of the stations busted that forecast.

Lets hope for the same. Bust instead move north towards KC.

dusting, 152 and amity. this has poooooooooooooooooofffffffffffffffffff  written all over it.

I think Olathe and South East will see around 4"+.

I'm new to the blog and am hoping for beginners luck.... 4 inches in Independence!

This isn't even an educated guess...just wishful thinking...but here goes:

Roeland Park, KS...5.5"

My gut says 2.5" around Olathe (151st and Pflumm, anyway).  We've gotten so excited about too many storms that just don't seem to pan out.  I would actually be okay with this total, but for the sake of those that really want snow (I can't believe I'm saying this), I hope we get a couple of inches more.  Yes, I actually just said that I hope we get around 5".  I'd better go check for a fever.   LOL!  But if I had to predict, I would go with 2.5".  That's my final answer.  

Hello Gary, What time do you think the snow will start here in downtown KC, what time are you thinking?

2.5 on the plaza, 3.2 in OP

every other weather station has a huge storm, 4-5 in the metro, 5-7 down south, 1-3 north of KCI. ************ Always a good sign for us:)

I already said 5-8 inches

When will u get new data

Hasn't Gary posted a snowfall forecast map yet?  I see one on all the other stations' sites and on the NWS.

Are you afraid it won't verify?  :) ************** Jerry, Your comments today have not been very fair to Gary or the rest of the weather team. All your comments have a very negative tone to them. Gary clearly has stated 1-4". To me it looks like Gary's consistent forecast has a very good chance of verifying. If you want a forecast that scares people instead of telling them what we think you are looking in the wrong place. Sorry. Jeremy

just got home from snow creek skiing. it was fun but cold all day lol.

Less than an inch in Maryville <fingers crossed>

Im guessing 1 inch here at 130th and State Avenue in KCK.

Bryan

hmmmm this is pretty tough... but i wood have to say from my gut anywhere from 4-5 inches here in south leawood... leaning more towards the 4... but wat wood be amazing is if we got that possible 8 inches that the NWS has said coood happen... BUT WHO KNOWS!

Jeremy, when will you guys get the new data in? Does it look like we will see signifigant snow now? *********** The 00Z NAM would give the metro a dusting maybe. Keep in mind this has been the farthest south model all along. 00Z GFS and nowcasting will determine the updated forecast Gary shows at 10pm. Jeremy

oh the worlds of fun area i would say 1.5in. i wish it was more but what can you do but hope and pray you will get more.

From all the maps ive seen Im gonna go with 4-5 hopefully more. i hope it tracks north  a little by 25 or 30 miles that'll make a huge difference. Wunderground shows the low closing off in southern Missouri and in the northeast corner of Oklahoma it looks like alot for south were in the middle again DARN IT!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm hoping for 6".  My son would love to sled in our back yard here in Olathe.  GO CATS!!!!

I am going with a wishful thinking of 4" in Belton/Raymore. I am impressed that Gary, and the team, has stuck with their guns on 1-4".  All of the previous storms, he has started with that and then "given" into the pressure of all other forcasts and gone up. Then is his original forcast is prove correct. I hope that we get more than the 1-4 as many of us are hoping for a snow day!

2" KC Metro, Dusting to 1" along the 36 corridor, to a nothing north of that.....much north of 36 will be lucky to see a snowflake.....for what it is worth...sorry Tye!

i think the metro are will get 3-4inches and further south 5-7inches

10 inches.

Define 'wishcasting'.

I'm going to stick with it regardless.

Grandview, 3.2 inches.  GO JAYHAWKS!!!!!!!!!!! Hey, ya can't help it when your  the best!!! .................at all sports!!

BIG SNOW, BIG SNOW..NO WHAMMIES!!!!!

My shovel is lonely!  We need some shoevable snow!!  A snow day wouldn't be bad either!

Not enough!!  I am predicting 3.5-4 in the Shoal Creek area, but I'd love to see a good 15-20-inch storm here some day.

.75" - Grain Valley...

no expert here, but after watching all the 5:00 reports, I expect no more than 2" in south leawood, but would be giddy if it turns out to be 7", and not totally shocked if we get a dusting. (and yes... very interesting bb game going on).

For what it is worth looking at the NGM model and from what I can tell...it looks like that model has a little more precip in the area compared to the NAM, but it still looks like it is too far south with taking the vort 'x' into northern TX.

Anyone else care to elaborate??

Bryan

If this pans out to be nothing, im gonna give nws an earfull

I had to take a break from the KU - KSU game.  What a game!  Go Jayhawks! :)

When does the next GFS come out?

Kristi

As much as I would LOVE to see snow, don't get me wrong, if it's going to be bitterly cold it might as well snow :), we can't get upset with Gary!

After all, he is the only one on any station that said only 1-4"!  So, if we get an inch, he was dead-on, as he forecasted this even more than a month back!  Every other place got our hopes up, including the NWS by issuing WSW ahead of the latest model runs!

But, if all goes well, like previously mentioned by the WX team, it is always easier upping the totals (you are counting on less, but receive more... Who's complaining there? :) than lowering them down like numerous others will be forced to do in the next twelve hours if it pans out as the models are saying.

But we're rootin for the snow!  BRING IT ON!  If not, we still know who had the most accurate predictions weeks ahead of time, and never got anyone's hopes up falsely!   GREAT JOB WEATHER TEAM *APPLAUSE* :)

if their forecast hasnt changed, theres no reason for new data!

Kristi- I think the GFS comes out a little before 10PM?

Bryan

Brookside 2"

Maybe somewhere between 9:30 PM and 10 PM, Bryan?  I never pay too much attention to the times. :(

Kristi

As my 8th grade science students, staff from SVMS, and friends can attest I predicted 3"-6" on Monday and then finalized an area of 2"-4" for 60% of viewing area, 4"-6" for 30% of viewing area and 6"+ for 10% of viewing area.

So, for Blue Springs I'm going for 4"!!!!

Ok... I am on the East coast for work, flying back to KC late Thursday night.  Do I need to worry about my flight, or should KCI be in good shape by 11PM?  

2.5" in Lee's Summit.

K-State rocks!

Yes Kristi, I think it is between 9:30 and 10:00 for the new GFS runs, seems like Gary and the team always have just a few mins to look over the latest data to make adjustments before the 10:17 PM weathercast.

NWS says 5 to 8 inches for Cass County - yeah, right.  I'm thinking we'll be lucky to get 3" here in Peculiar.  I would LOVE to get more, a real deal snowfall, but I'm not holding my breath!

hahaha, you guess are soo funny, watch this storm fool all of us.

I think the Models have been pretty consistent with .25 to .50 of precip in our area with a couple of runs of .60 or more.  

I say 3 to 6 inches in the KC Metro is a pretty fair bet

Give the NWS a chance. They must have some solid information to predict 4-8 inches. I think we are definately due. GO CATS!

well I'm predicting 4 inches in leavenworth.

I predict 2 inches in northern Cass county.

I think there is alot of paranoia out there in regards to the weather.  It's all based on ratings.  SInce we are such an instant gratification society, whereever the "drama" is ,. that is where you will find your viewers and that's where you will find your ratings. SO overhyping something like this snowstorm is a prime example of this.  On the other hand,. you can try to down play it for the opposite effect, and have the same inaccuracy. If you play it too conservativly, because you don'e want to be part of the hype, then you have made an equal mistake.  As far as who is right and who is wrong, what news cast to watch and who's to discrad. Use comon sense.  

I personally think that based off weather patterns as a Kansas native all my life that we will have a very nice snowfall.  The pattern is going to change .  IT will start out as not much at all and surprise you all. I think by calling for low accumulations is a mistake. Cause you just don't knw at this point.  You can talk about potential, but when it's all said and done,how is your track record?  Don't make a prediction and then not own up to the bad forcast. Don't call for 1-6 inches. Just keep peole informed as much as possible if it will be a significant snow fall. ANything under 4 inches is really nothing. But 4 inches and 30 mph winds with 45 mph guests,. well that is newsworthy.  

The new data is probably going to scare me...

but I am going to go with 5 inches for Harrisonville!

Brent

It's funny how Scott disappears within 12 hours of the storm always lol...will Jayhawks are about to get beat by the cats.

Brent it looks like we will share the snow with you this time from leavenworth,Good luck!!!!!!!!

Good Evening Weather Team!!!

How are you doing?? I can only imagine how hectic it has been today-how are you all holding up??

Ok, a few more random observations: I just don't know when to quit do I LOL

1. I think, the 0Z RUC is hinting at a stronger storm-it closes the Upper Level Low off at 12Z back in the Texas Pan Handle and the there seems to be quite a bit stronger WAA at the 850 level into far southern Kansas

2. That being said, current radar is kind of telling the tale though: the precip in the Texas Pan Handle currently is heading East with a slightly Northern wobble but for sure not North East.

Just some random observations by a Hobbyist at best and they should not be taken as a true analysis of the situation what so ever!! Whatever happens (I am grimmacing as I am saying this!!!) here, this is going to be fascinating and fun to track for sure!!!!

Much to mosts shagrin, I will porbably check in later!!

Bill no I'm not watching the game as it drives me nuts to watch on TV in Lawrence

New Blog:

GARY NOW PREDICTS 4" for Olathe.... I wish. :) ;)

GO CATS! Beakers are going down.

I think it's a good thing the Hawks may lose before the tourney. It takes the pressure off them of having to go into the big dance undefeated. Then they can go on and win it all!!!

haha Andrew...all i saw was "New Blog" and was trying to refresh Internet Explorer..Got me on that one! ;)

I am more concerned about the extended, I thought next week was the week with our bigger storms.....

patssoxcelts..i called it early ..look at the blog!! wish i put some $$ down..my score might be a bit high...

The NWS should update and take our area out of the WSW.   They are so slow to  react to a changing forecast.   You would think with todays technology somebody could keep it more up to date.

the 00z NAM does not look good to me... of course that's been the worst model this winter.

Im giving the NWS a chance, but if they blow it, you better believe they are gonna here about it!!!!!!!

I dont know if the NWS gets their info faster then everyone else, but they JUST uped their totals in Olathe from 3-5 to 4-6!  According to the NAM we MAY GET FLURRIES!  Eather they allready have the GFS forecast or going with gut feeling.

I really think that Gary and the weather team will up their snowfall forcast, I get this feeling. ************* You may want to get rid of that feeling pretty quick:) Jeremy

I am going to be optimistic and predict 5 inches here in Olathe.

No way they go over 4" for metro,  I think it was a very good early safe forecast of 1-4".

------------------

Well, only if it snows. 

Gary

Another station says it may not snow at all!!!!! They are saying niot even an"

I still think Olathe  could get 4". I am not paying attention to the NAM

Everybody see the NASA Story?

http://redicecreations.com/article.php?id=2659

Unbelievable....the contrasting views!!!  NWS is showing 5-8" for Harrisonville and south.  Another station just stated only 1-2 inches for Clinton and only a dusting for Harrisonville.  Springfield NWS shows 3-5 for Clinton, and 1-2 for Harrisonville.  WOW!  From my observation, it does seem the low is taking shape further south......could that be the reasoning for the different senerios??  I love to see where it ends up Friday evening.  Take care, Jim in Clinton.

this sucks...

Wow, first it goes too far north, now it's going too far south. Hopefully this trend don't continue the rest of the month or else we will be stuck at 6 inches of snow for the entire season.

I am going to say 3" for the plaza and 2.5" for Marceline...hoping for a lot more though

what a flip flop......the nine PM station has me really scared...they lowered their totals a lot!

and said the data is getting less and less impressive!!

NO!

bust storm...

let me clarify that 41 has not changed their snow forecast once!

great job team!
while everyone else was flip flopping every 6 hours, you guys held firm with your 1 to 4 inches.

and I believe in the end you will be right

great job on that Gary!

now get me a snowstorm with more than 6 inches  would ya?...lol

Brent

"PatsSoxCelts said:
this sucks..."


that says it all...

Well, no matter what happens, someone somewhere will be right.  Good luck to you, Gary.

Uh, Brent, hate to say it but one forecast has NO snow-period!! If I am reading the NAM right, even though it's unreliable, it has it all in southern Missouri. Please tell me I am reading the model's wrong....

Oh yeah Brent-Gary said in a previous reply "Only if it snow." :(

gfs hopefully is giving!!

I am starting to think that we rely on way too much on computer models.

gfs rollin out yet?

50 FEET on the south side near banister mall

50 FEET on the south side near banister mall

Guys I hate to say it but the word POOF is starting to come to mind.

5 feet i mean not 50

Is gfs out?

Well at least for the Metro area

that was wild!!  POOF!!!  Jim in Clinton

Is it just my imagination or does the radar motion seem to have the storm moving in our general direction now? How can you know for sure if it is starting to turn? Do you look at low pressure readings?  Why is there not a   map for the movement of Lows like there are maps showing a hurricane's movement. with a hurricane you can get a pretty good feel for the direction of a storm, days out.