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Jeremy and Brett:

Hope your day is going well!!!

Quick update in between classes: sun peaking out here in Lawrence-wound up with about 200 snow flakes!!! I knew in my logical brain that this storm was not going to produce not only from the models but more because of the team's analysis and your instincts,  but man my passion/love of snow really did think/hoped we were going to somehow pull a rabbit from a hat/catch lightening in a bottle on this one. If  things just tracked/formed about 100 miles differently....

Oh well-I've learned alot and it has been great to follow-good luck to everyone in SW Missouri on into St. Louis!!!!

I am never going to live my bird comments down am I?? LOL

Have a great day everybody and again, thanks to the weather team for poroviding such a great place to learn and discuss the weather and awesome job as always!!! I'll say it again, you guys are Tight!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

This storm is/was tricky for everyone...don't let it get you down.

Thanks for checking in!

Jeremy

My blog is updated with the stuff that Rick requested:
http://kcweatherblog.blogspot.com/

you all didnt hurt youself on such a great update did you very imformative *** I sense sarcasm.  We are getting ready for the midday.  We will have more after the show.  Thanks, Brett

Looks to me like the snow is shrinking on radar, not growing. And looking out the window I see tiny flurries and filtered sunshine. Are you expecting some re-development?

***************

Our only real shot at snow is from now thru mid afternoon.  After that PVA is gone.  The clouds are thicker and there is more light snow to the southwest.  Unless that reaches us or there is more development then a dusting in spots may be it.

Brett/Jeremy--Just a quick 10:30 am update from downtown Topeka--on the Topeka NWS radar there are echoes--not so much from your radar--it is not snowing--every once in a while on my walk I noticed a flake but I am wondering if it is verga? I hope that is the right term when precip is not reaching the ground but showing up on the radar.  Maybe it will materialize more and give Topeka a dusting.  Looks like central Missouri on east and north will get some snow.  Looking forward to next week---Michael/Berryton/Topeka

GRRRR....snow to the north, snow to the south. What's up with the "no snow zone" for Brent and me?

I would go kick your radar to make sure it is working.  According to your screen print at 10:20 it should be snowing like crazy in S. OP.  Let me do a little "nowcasting".  It is sunny with nary a cloud overhead.  

The radar looks like there is a band moving over st joe and slightly forming back to the west.  Is it looking like St. Joe might get a little more than a dusting?

in south kansas city near banister mall it snowed hard for like an hour we got a dusting but now the sun is out and everthing that fell melted

i have nothing now this stinks . i think i am done with winter now and bring on some spring storms and warm weather.
well i guess there still may be hope for more snow right? whats tues look like is there still a storm  with snow maybe?

28.9 degrees dew point 18 ENE wind we are toast up like I said last nite . . . in looking at the radar in KS the snow can't get north of I-70.   Well what is on tap for Monday this was <<<<<<POOOFFF>>>>>>

Jeremy/Brett--Another quick update from downtown Topeka (10:45am)--In a matter of 15 minutes it is now spitting again.  I will let you know if any accumulation happens over the next couple of hours--A good stiff east wind though.  Thanks, Michael/Berryton/Topeka

**************

Michael,

Send whatever is falling east...I know some people that would like to have the precip.!

Jeremy

it appears it is aloft in leavenworth.

hey why are u guys keeping temps so low on sunday models show temps geting more like 45-48 in are area ****** We are raising them as we speak. Brett

and on monday it has temps around 49-56

Hey TEAM.....what little snow fell here in Drexel has almost melted away in the bright sunshine....almost we had a dusting so far.
Mike

Just went outside in Kingsville and the sun is trying to peek thru and temps are at 32.2 on the weather station. I'm thinking the 2-4 inches NWS predicted for us isn't going to happen....but I never really bought that anyway. IF we get snow today, I'm thinking a dusting to a quarter inch...

ALL the snow that falls is melting because the sun angle is high enough now that no mater what the temp the sun is strong enough to melt it when it is out

***************

Watch out, you might get a sunburn today!

Jeremy

While Wit with radar is moving NE on the east side it is already roating from the NW to the SE on the west side of the radar Ok City is still pushig ENE and shrinking<<<<<<PPPPOOOOFFFF>>>>> but you called it KC is  DRY SLOTTED now and there will be very little deformation or wraparound the window only is another 5 hrs max.  Fun tracking ... but do not like the results....hope the folks down south can squeeze out 2 inches.

Clouds breaking up and sun coming out in Lawrence!!

Brian

*************

Thanks for the update!

Jeremy

I  think that the snowfall total that Gary predicted its going to be the OVER of what we really get.  UNLESS we get a FEB suprise I am thinking only 15in of snow for KCI.  Mondays storm looks like an all rain event.  This storm looked good all the way untill yesterday afternoon.  I am very discouraged over the last couple of winters here.  Everything seems to go NORTH OR SOUTH of the metro.  Whens the last time that Downtown or KCI for that matter recorded an 8in snow?  The days are getting longer, the suns higher, and the REAL SNOW IS NOWHERE TO BE FOUND!!!  Well im done ranting off.  Hopefully im wrong, but it does not look that way.

I have seen very, very few flurries.  The sun is filtering through the clouds right now in the western KCK (Piper) area near 123rd & Hollingsworth.

Well the NWS udated their snow forecast!  LESS THE 1 IN FOR ENTIRE METRO!!

Hate to say this but the last year or so we have not received that much snow. With the exception of the footer we had back in early December 2005, It's been quite some time since we have had more than a foot of snow all winter long up north of the river. I hate to rule things out this early, but I think since I have observed nearly 14" of snow already, we are probably near the end for the winter.

If we want huge snows, we may have to wait for this dormant sunspot cycle to kick in. Some places say it could be as short as 3 years, others say it may not happen until the 2020s. Gary, any thoughts on the rumors of that sunspot thing impacting our climate or is it just a bunch of scare tactics?

Temps keep rising..sitting at 33.3 degrees in Kingsville..

www.kansascity.com/news/breaking_news/story/469036.html     There is any article here that says we will get two to four inches.also ther is a conments that says weather people are idiots the comment made me mad becuse it is not true.

ohwell. I am sure we will see more snow this winter, but I am ready for some thunderstorms.

Bummer....full sunshine and blue skies here in OP (99th&Antioch) @11:15, 36 degrees

Well so much for a decent winter, because now I'm assuming everything will go south of KC.  Are you guys still feeling confident on your multiple storm forecast from a month ago? ***** Yes, we are still confident on the multiple storm scenario but how they will play out is not exactly certain.  Brett

0.00''

Just wanted to report the snowfall totals here in eastern Douglas County before I headed off. ***** Thanks for the report.  Brett

the national weather service should absoultly be ashamed of there forecast with milllions of dollars on equipment they have winter storm warning  better yet the sky is falling they should all be fired

This Sucks!

NWS is gonna hear it from me!

OK.

first of all I am extremely dissapointed.....

If most areas get an inch of snow in the metro, your forecast of 1 to 4 still stands correct....

If most areas get half an inch...your forecast is busted...
I am not trying to criticise here...but everyone in the KC area blew this forecast...lol

you guys were definitely the closest though
I know this was a hard forecast and that nobody knew that the low would track so far south.....I watched the midday show...and wished I hadn't.

its sunny and 34 degrees ...what went wrong?....

I had bets going that you guys would be right and that we would see more than 2 inches.....unfortunetely...I will be the loser this time....

This will go down as the most dissapointing snowstorm this year...lol

I guess I was foolish to believe that I  might actually get snow....

I know you guys did your best...and that even when the other stations were going wild with the totals..you guys stood firm...

you can't get everone right...

LOL I had more snow from Tuesdays event than from this one!

By the way...what ever happened to the LRC in all of this.....wasn't it supposed to track over oklahoma?...like all the other storms in this part of the cycle did?....I am confused...

well...southern MO deserves the snow...they haven't really had any this year..so a nice big one down there is good....

even though I missed out once again.

Good forecast Jacob...you guessed half an inch for LS right?...lol

we all got a little carried away here on the blog when the model run had us in 6 inches of snow didn't we?

I recall chiefsfan wanting to bet... ****** Its all on the ULL, its too far south and the wave over Texas didn't help.  Brett

Yes the NWS screwed this forecast BAD, really bad, to the point of absurdity.  Last night Gary stuck to his guns, even saying he didn't agree with the NWS warnings and had much lower snow fall amounts.  Hmmm...who was close on their forecast and who looked like a fool?  To be kind, I have complete faith in the NWS for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, well I think I still do.

Sunshine and 34 degrees officially here in Clinton....by the way, the snowfall total for Clinton, 0.0" so far.  

It seems like every time the stations broadcast that we will receive a big snow storm, it peters out or misses us.  I am a snow lover and am wondering if we will ever get a big snow storm????

How does this storm fit or not fit with the LRC?  You use models and the LRC to determine the forecast as well as comparing it to previous storms that appear to be similar, what does that say about this storm and its southerly track?  I haven't read in the blog where this makes sense at all based on the LRC.  Every storm we have had this winter has tracked just to the north of Kansas City, and this one tracks well to the south?  If the re-occuring cycle cannot project what part of the area will be affected repeatedly, then I miss the point.  If this is part of the cycle and this storm is re-occuring over a completely different area, then does that mean that all of these subsequent storms will now pass to our south because the cycle is happening in February and not December?  Its seems to me the active part of the cycle that occurred in December has been relatively in-active for the 1st 11 days of this cycle.(just basing in on the January 20th date previously mentioned)  I want to believe I just need help understanding.  If the cycle as stated last year is approximately 45 days then this year approximately 54 days with some degree of error.  Then niether the time nor the location is very accurate.  Then telling a weather event may happen weeks in advance does little more then help plan an outdoor event.  Please help I am losing faith!  Thanks

Balmy 32, light wind, sunny skies with sunscreen on. Wondering if I should put my shorts on? johnmarr I wish people like you would keep it nice. The weather team is busy not just now but most of the time. Myself I feel very fortunate that they even take the time out to respond or even to put up a post.

Interesting to see areas NORTH of KC (up around Chillicothe) getting the brunt of the snow currently falling... while it's sunny and 40 degrees here in Lenexa.  This is almost getting to the point of being hysterical... that the NWS could miss this forecast THIS badly... with all of that equipment.  Guess that goes to show that technology can be a BAD thing at times!!

There are many on here that are lamenting the fact we got no snow, but I for one am estactic the storm moved away.  I am so sick of winter, I am ready for spring!  

We are building a new house, (trying to jumpstart the economy all by ourselves, LOL!) and it has to stay dry for a few days for them to get the basement poured.

as for my conditions at the moment...SE KC (Bannister & Blue Ridge), it is sunny and 31 degrees!

OUTSTANDING JOB WITH THIS FORECAST!!!!  Nothing else needs to be said!!!!!!

NWS definition...

Winter Storm Warning - Issued when hazardous winter weather is occurring, imminent or highly likely over part or all of the area.  Hazardous winter weather includes but is not limited to heavy snow, blizzards, ice storms, freezing rain or drizzle and sleet.

Kingsville has filtered sunshine and temps are at 36.0 degrees. I have yet to see a flurry...

************

We'll work on getting you some flurries at the very least.

Jeremy

i do belive this does fit the lrc ice storm warning poof missed that one to seems to be a  areacouring cycle

Hi.
I'm happy, Gary kept his cool even when it wasn't what he wanted to tell us.  
If this storm had been fueled on wishes and willpower, we'd be buried right now.  :o)

Last night I guessed 1/2 inch, didn't even get that much.. whew!  Glad I didn't have to shovel, or be late for work, or risk the trecherous roads.

I know many of you are bummed out, maybe next time.  Until then there's always the snow machines!

*************

I think the snow machine is a good idea!  I don't think Gary is too down...he loves all weather!

Jeremy

to make an uneventful weather day more uneventful the nws forecast discussion is out and they are going to start chopping down the advisories too,which by the way they totally missed this because they had warnings out yesterday,and Gary I know you are going to be hard on yourself but you were the most closest on this storm compared to the others.

I feel for the areas down south, they got robbed:(
right now in St. Joe... cloudy with a few flurries.

*************

Nick,

Thanks for the report.  A bummer for many.

Jeremy

still 28 and heavy overcast with that ENE wind at 12-18 mph dewpoint 18 still.  wind chill is 15 degrees.   Now we wait.

I was afraid that the storm was going to go to far south this time, and it did, it still looks like areas around Clinton and the southern viewing area could get about 3-4 inches, prob less, due to the track of the storm.  I was really excited about this storm as well, well hopefully we get some acclumation out of this one. What happened?  Did the storm just not form as well in the upper levels?  What?  If we get any acclumation I will let you know before 6 hopefully.  If not before 10 pm newscast.  What happened with this storm guys?  I hope next weeks storm is a little bit more organized...

Adogg see my previous comment on earlier blog about the NWS, who? I forgot, I have put them out of my mind and off my computer.
Just checking in as I enjoy this beautiful sunny snowstorm. Good gosh, what the heck happened. On top of the snow diminishing into thin air, now the sun bright and shining. This baby was blown big time, and I guess this one is written off.
This "event" is no better than a pile of brown snow.

*****************

Not much accumulation anywhere so far, but at least there is some light snow still moving through parts of the area.

Jeremy

It is now clouding up once again in Grandview, lol.. Our "skiff" of snow skipped on outta here with the sunshine.

There is one lone cloud over Raytown right now.  What happened!!! lol Looks like a nice day to get out and work on raking those leaves I've been putting off. :o)

andrew good post...bummer someday we will get some good ole snow

Here comes the snow, all dressed in white, I don't think it will ever touch the ground.

**************

Maybe it will just hover a few feet above the ground!

Jeremy

kane1970, johnmarr was not bashing Gary and team, he was referrring to the NWS like a few others of us. It is our tax dollars funding that kind of stuff, and with everything else, there forecast was pathetic. Another example of this is all measurements for precip being taken in a cornfield 20 miles from downtown!
They scare the senior population into thinking armegedon is going to hit, empty the store shelves of bread and milk and then we in turn enjoy a sunny day? In my work performance on the job like this earns a pink slip and a new line of work, maybe fortune telling or a rainmaker wagon out west.
This forecast was a bust by everyone period. The LRC even fell off the wagon this round.  

Jeremy and the weather team--One more update from downtown Topeka at 12:15 pm.  The snow never got going---occassionally there are flakes-the winds seem to be out of the north and the clouds lifted somewhat.  There will be another snowtime and snowday along the way!  Funny how the radar seems so impressive but there must be a lot of verga.  Coffeyville, KS shut down due to 8-10 inches of snow.  Not sure of reports from Wichita as of yet.  Take care, Michael/Berryton/Topeka

johnmarr said:
you all didnt hurt youself on such a great update did you very imformative *** I sense sarcasm.  We are getting ready for the midday.  We will have more after the show.  Thanks, Brett

Long time reader, first time blogger.  Just wanted to say congrats to Gary and his team on not jumping on the bandwagon yesterday with the snow totals.  With the other weather outlets posting winter storm warnings and such, Gary and his team trusted their instincts and models and maintained their very modest snow totals which they were very consistent on for about a full week.  This despite lots of pressure from bloggers yesterday for "playing it safe" and "being late" on their predictions.  It is intersting that SCOTT has been very quite today after he really got on Garys case yesterday.  I would say as a long time reader of this blogg that it is fine to post opinions and discuss things but unsaid/implied mud slinging and condensending remarks really should be kept to yourself.  Again, Gary and team, great job on the accurate forcast and keep up the good work!  

That is what I was refering to!!!!

its 36 here......

this hurts...

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Not much to ease your pain today.

Jeremy

Jeremy and the weather team--sorry for my mispelled word--virga not verga--I kept hitting the e instead of the i :(      Michael/Berryton/Topeka

theres a little pink spot south of me.....is that rain?

Braysmama - thanks for the update on the ol' homestead!  Did your birds come out yet?  Our goldfinches are turning yellow again!  :)  Springs on the way!

HOVER SNOW!!! I like the sound of that.

This team always knows what is going on... I use to be a loyal cbs person.. then fox, and now NBC.  Gary and crew get it right all the time.  It's a shame I've lived here 7 years and just recently figured it out.  Way to go Gary and crew... Thanks for KNOWING your job! :)

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Thank you so much!  Your statement should be our next promotional commercial.  This is the message we are trying to get out there, and we know it takes a long time. 

Gary

another very accurate forecast..great job guys....c'mon spring!   if there is going to be mud slinging and name calling like a 2nd grader,well, let me be first.have a great day stupid poopie heads.

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Are you aloud to say that?  Thanks anyway!  There may be one nice band of snow before this storm is over.

Gary

Glad to hear you haven't done away with yourself Brent!  Cheer up . . . it could be worse . . . don't know how but I'm sure it could!

Well I guess the Baby just isn't ready yet!!  Mom is back home sleeping.


<<<<<PPPPOOOOOOOFFF>>> is definitely the word to use today.

Brent said:
you guys were definitely the closest though
I know this was a hard forecast and that nobody knew that the low would track so far south.....
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
LRCfan said:
Gary I know you are going to be hard on yourself but you were the most closest on this storm compared to the others.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Jeremy said:
I'm just glad we didn't waver from 1-4" yesterday for the early shows.  Every other station in town had areas of 5-7" or more during the afternoon.
Jeremy
January 31, 2008 10:29 AM
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hate to tell all of you, but  Another station had this thing pegged RIGHT ON:  (uh, no they didn't....keep reading they had a forecast for a lot of snow earlier in the day)

The first time I heard Gary start saying these things a couple of years back, I thought, "oh no, not you Gary...PLEASE don't"  For me it took away from the absolute enthusiasm that he had. He was like a breath of fresh air when he was with Fox and when he first became Head Met on 41.

I still believe him to be the most enthusiastic of all the mets. But it gets old hearing  "We are the best" all of the time.
Just  bring us the forecast please.

I know I will probably get pounded for this because you are a "zealous lot" as Barbara points out...
but as I have heard many on here say "I'm just calling it as I see it."

----------------------

Ethalo,

We have never said "we are the best", but we will stand behind us being the most accurate!  There is no doubt about this at all.  You can keep track of it yourself if you would like to.  If you say we weren't the most accurate on this storm, you may be right, so this would make our forecast record, according to your system, to be around 15 for KSHB and 1 for the other station.  If the Chiefs were 15-1 and lost to the Miami Dolphins in that one game, does it make the Miami Dolphins the better team?

Gary

ethalo your a booger eater...no i watch all the channels and they nailed it..actually I nailed it check yesterdays blog i said 1"  in lees summit ...and kstate would win..maybe i am the most accurate?

Another meteorologist did talk about it missing us completely....I think thats true...but even that station had us in 3 to 6 inches on tuesday I believe....maybe yesterday....

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Brent,

Thanks, and not just for you, but everyone remember we don't want to mention other meteorologists names.  Just use another station or something similar.  We will go over our forecast accuracy in the next blog entry soon.

Gary

My snowfall Forecast is updated:

http://kcweatherblog.blogspot.com/


You might not like it.

"maybe i am the most accurate?"

LOL....


hey, it looks like there is snow over Cass county...why isn't it snowing here?....probably cause its 36 degrees!

**************

The lack of snow is helping the temps warm.

Jeremy

72nd & I-29: Spit snow for about 10 minutes at about 10:30, it's even been a little sunny at times.

How does this fit in with the LRC? Last time this storm system didn't go that far south.

I am going to make this short but sweet.  

I am seeking a wine choice for the crow I am eating today.  LOL

I expected this particular storm to arrive for quite awhile, and it did produce as expected.  

Just not here.  I predicted 3-5 inches of snow for the metro.

I was wrong.

So, as much as I may take credit for when I am right – in all fairness, I must do the same when I am wrong.

Gary/Team, great job with this storm.  Clearly, it was very tricky – and I am still going over where things fell apart for this area per what my analysis was.

I do not blame the models, as everyone uses them.  Clearly, not everyone is on the same level in interpretation.  I will not call out others that missed as they will deal with their own wine choice.

All that said, it was quite an experience, and I am stoked for many more in the future!

Psychdoc – I am quiet today as I am reviewing what happened.  Also, as the content is somewhat light today in the blog, generally I take a break for those times.

I was very critical of Gary for the 1-4 inch forecast.  And I still am.  It isn’t the fact of snow or no snow, but the range provided.  I don’t like this approach.  But – that is just me, and I clearly stated that in my critique.  I believe I even went further in showing why I didn’t like it.  

“it is fine to post opinions and discuss things but unsaid/implied mud slinging and condensending remarks really should be kept to yourself.”

You are entitled to your opinion as I am.  I generally will supply fact based analysis as to why I disagree.  

If you don’t like my comments, cool.  Skip over them and save us the rant.  Should you want to further discuss my posts or critique, I welcome the feedback/discussion via PM or email.


Regardless, this team did a good job.  I have always been the first to admit that and my continued support of the blog should further show that.  


Later gaters.

*******************

I always had wine in a box in college...but make sure to buy some aspirin when you get it:)

The forecast wasn't perfect, and I think Gary is going to address the changes in the storm later today.

Jeremy

Gary,
I also said "Maybe you are at times,(the most accurate) but it serves no purpose to brag."
I have been a fan of yours for years (ever since Fox) and I was SO thrilled when you got what you deservered...Head Met! I was jumping for joy for you. Finally, someone who had a real passion for weather was in the Prime Time spotlight.
My post was not to condemn you. It was to say" just bring us the weather" please without all the chest thumping.

I think that that the LRC theory is a real boon for you, and I know how many years and hours you have worked on proving it. I personally believe in it also! I hope it will be used in years to come by Mets nation wide.

THIS IS THE BEST PLACE FOR THE MOST ACCURATE FORECASTS. AND I DON'T AGREE WITH AS YOU SAY "JUST CALL IT AS I SEE IT" I SEE THAT AS A PERSONAL BASH. i THINK IT IS AMAZING THAT THIS BLOG IS HERE. AND THAT GARY IS WILLING TO PUT HIMSELF OUT THERE TO HEAR SOM FEEDBACK. BUT WITH THAT SAID IT CAN BE CONSTRUTIVE CRITISIM. iS THERE ANY ONE OUT THERE TELLING YOU THAT YOU ARE DOING YOUR JOB WRONG??? OR WHEN THINGS JUST DON'T GO THE WAY YOU THINK THEY WILL THEY TELL YOU YOU WERE WRONG. I DOUBT IT. MOTHER NATURE IS HARD TO GET A HANDLE ON AND I THINK THAT THIS STATION ATLEAST HAS ONE HAND ON HER MOST OF THE TIME AND TWO HANDS SOME OF THE TIME.



JUST LET THE RECORD SPEAK FOR ITSELF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


by the way i am not great with words. (if you can't tell)

LOL Scott.

Last night at 10:30, the NWS was forcasting 3-5" near Lawrence, and Gary called for 1-2" and speculated "it could even be less." Another bullseye! Well done!

We had a light dusting this morning, which has now melted. That's are final snow total for Olathe!!

Hey weather team ... did anyone get my email concerning the posts on last night's blog around midnight? I sent it to the "weather@" address.

Tony Baker said:

"Last night at 10:30, the NWS was forcasting 3-5" near Lawrence, and Gary called for 1-2" and speculated "it could even be less." Another bullseye! Well done!"

----------------------

Last night at 10:30??????  That is about 8 hours before this ''storm'' was ''supposed'' to start.  I sure hope they can nail something down 8 hours before it happens!

*****************

Amazing but others couldn't!

Jeremy

ethalo,
I don't think there's anything wrong with being proud of your record/accuracy.  Honestly, that's what caught my attention in the first place.  I was like.. they're really pumping themselves up about being accurate... I think I'll watch and see..   Go figure... they're right.  I don't expect 100% accuracy though - It's impossible to know 100% what mother nature is doing.  My point is, Gary and crew doesn't have the entire city running to home depot and walmart buying shovels, salt, and emptying grocery store shelves because we're getting the worst storm in years.
I say chest thump all you want... you've earned the right. :) hehe  Here I'll thump it for u  

**************

Thanks for the positive remarks.

Jeremy

Ok, someone explain something to me about the LRC.  It was said this storm was tied back to the one on December 15th, but that makes no sense to me.  Ok, doesn't everyone remember the HORRIBLE ice storm down in SE Kansas and SW Missouri back on Sat. Dec. 8th?  Hmmmm..... 54 days later is, oh yeah, TODAY and those same areas are getting a significant snow storm.  Then on Dec. 11th St. Joe was hit with a 1"+ Ice Storm.  So is the cycle just really beginning now and we can rest easy that we're going to be getting some good snow storms Thurs. Feb 7th, 14th, etc?  I hope that made sense.

****************

As I mentioned yesterday.  Gary/Jeff are going to discuss the LRC either later today or on Friday.  Gary will answer questions about it then.

Jeremy

When do they update metro weather on time warner once a day early in the morning? They are still saying 3-5 inches and temps in the mid 20's, hell It's been in the low 30's all day and now even a dusting here in shawnee.

*****************

Check out WxPlus.  I'm glad metro weather is saying that!

Jeremy

Sounds right to me nasty!

Well the sun is shining, somewhat, and light snow is falling in St. Joe, this thing doesn't even know what it wants to do even when its doing it!!!LOL

A whole section my post was removed. It totally takes away from the point I was trying to make. And it makes Gary's response a moot point, with no reference.

****************

Posts about other blogs or other mets. get deleted or changed to another station.  This is very well known on this blog.  You copied and pasted another blog on here...sorry.

Jeremy

Snow is finally falling in eastern Independence (24 and 7 highways).  Not too much but it is coming down.

DL

ethalo said:
A whole section my post was removed. It totally takes away from the point I was trying to make. And it makes Gary's response a moot point, with no reference.



i HEARD...........
BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAHBLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAHBLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAHBLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAHBLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAHBLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAHBLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAHBLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAHBLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH

WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FOR GARY TO GET ON HIS KNEES AND ASK FORGIVNESS FROM YOU?

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No, but we don't need to post our competitors blog in here.  That is all.  We can take any criticism and we will respond.  Now, as I am writing this a large area of snow is growing over the southeast half of the metro area.  It may only add up to 1 inch or less, but it is happening.  So, it is only the 4th quarter.  5 minutes to go in the game.  We are down by 5 points and at the 50 yard line with a third down and 7.  Let's see what happens to this last band of snow.  If it continues to grow and last for just three or four hours then our forecast will, in the end, have been the best one.  So, we shouldn't judge so early!  We never said it would be a big storm, but we did say we would have accumulations, and thus far we haven't, but let's see if we can complete that 3rd down.  Oh, we have three timeouts left.

Gary

The next storm... one phrase, "positive tilt"....    I hope the "roller coaster" is not broken.

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Nick,

Hopefully things change between now and early next week!

Jeremy

HEYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  It's snowing like crazy in Blue Springs!  All of a sudden, cloudy and gray and the temp dropped two degrees!  I had to go dig my snow scraper out of the dumpster where I threw it!  Is all the snow coming back?  Please?

its not snowing here....any reason why?....

RogOzSam-well my birds came back to eat and then finally-SNOW!!! It's a light snow and the temps have dropped back to 32.4. Still don't think any accumulations however.  Brent-have you seen any snow??

Jeremy,
The following is what I'm referring to.. was not a copy/paste. These are my words:
"I think that the NBC team needs to step down off of their pedestal for a bit, quit with the on air and blog chest beating of being the most accurate. Maybe you are at times, but it serves no purpose to brag.
All weather teams on all stations do their best, and I think that nit-picking each other only stirs things up."
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Yes, the rest that was deleted was taken from another blog.
Sorry. It won't happen again.
Now I need to get off of my high horse and eat some hay.

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We are stating a fact that we are the most accurate.  Not every single day out of the year, but overall clearly the most accurate. 

Jeremy

Oh no Brent-I'm over in Kingsville and it's snow pretty good now. Temp down to 31.7 degrees.

My apolgizes. I think I have been on here way to long today.
I really do think that you guys do a great job!!!!!
I just don't think you get the appretiaiton some of the time.
Radar looks good.
Gary do you agree with what nastyweather said???

THANKS ABUNCH!!!

Brent hasn't seen any snow...but the temps dropped 1.5 degrees..

lol

we have flurries again in Grandview, maybe it will pick up!

Looks like it might accumulate a little. My house in Kingsville has a VERY VERY light dustying on the grass. Temps continue to drop (31.5).

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Thanks for the update!

Jeremy

microscopic flurries.

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You might get a little snow yet!

Jeremy

Gary even if we get nothing, you're still a lot closer to the actual than anyone else out there.

Brett,Jeremy,Gary, and Jeff

Its days like these you earn your paychecks, and I dont necessarily mean predicting the weather either! I'm referring to the blog, emails and most likely phone calls. I wish you all the best and ask everyone to think what its like in to be in their shoes. And I will even say this for any of the competing stations in KC and other forecasters across the entire nation!

See ya all around

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Thanks...days like today are busy but make the job fun.  We love the blog and hopefully it shows!

Jeremy

hays for horses some times cows pigs don't eat it cause they don't know how.


Stupid poopie heads. LOL

Flurries on the plaza... at the library anyway.

You know what would really be cool? If the snow was just about 10hr late in getting it's act together, and all of a sudden, it just keeps backbuilding and going over the southern parts of KC, lol...wishful thinking...just tryin to help Brent out.

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We may be beyond help with this storm for most:)

Jeremy

Hey Jeremy!  How come you never tell me thank you?  :)  My feelings are so hurt.  First, the lack of snow until now, and now this!  I can't take it!

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Thank you to everyone for posting today and helping us with the weather reports!  Does this suffice:)

Jeremy

I'm with you Kellyann!  

yeah thanks kellyann....the problem is that its 35 degrees here....

extremely light snow.

Hold on Brent!  It was 36 (in Blue Springs) when I went to lunch - now down to 33 and snowing!  I live in Kingsville so I'm hoping Braysmama is right!  But it'll drop . . . be patient!  

Gary & team, great job regardless. All along you stuck with the "lower" end amounts for the metro - and while everyone else was crying wolf about the possibility of having 6" on the south side of town, you guys kept your cool.

In the midwest, it is sometimes near impossible to predict the weather. Even I, as an amateur, know this. Don't be saying "you got it wrong" or "you totally blew it", before you try forecasting yourself.

With the LRC, Gary & his weather team have a tool at their disposal that helps out tremendously in forecasting future weather. From what I understood, the LRC was never intended to say "this is where it's going to snow, and we assure you of this". I always understood the LRC was a tool that stated that a event is possible in the region around X timeframe, so be ready for it! And as a reference and guidance tool, it's invaluable. But this is weather - it won't be 100% perfect. There's always the X factor.

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Thanks for the comments. If we totally blow it we are the first to tell you.  I know Gary/Jeff will share some thoughts about this storm later today. 

Weather in the Midwest is challenging which makes it fun!

Jeremy

well Brent, if it would just start the dumb snowing, temps would drop! Our flurries here are few and far between.

Yea jeremy - that works!  Thanks!  I was just messing with you you know - I'm sure you have better things to do than watch us all being silly! But it's fun!  And thank you for your reporting -- accurate as usual!  Although, I have to say I was relying on the NWS - like their predictions better!  :)

Jeremy,
Does it look like any snow next week? Keeping my fingers crossed for Gary's 45 day forecast about stronger storms(hopefully in the form of snow) to come to fruition !
I am one of many on here who is starving for more snow!
SNOW DANCE is in order!

Stupid poopie head signing off. LOL

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Early next week doesn't look good at the moment...but maybe that will mean a big snow:)

Jeremy

This is kind of like group therapy for Snow Lovers Anonymous, huh?  LOL

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I'd like to start a group for people that love sun and 70s or 80s for highs.

Jeremy

Responding to f00dl3,

You're asking meteorologists to predict how a continuous nuclear explosion millions of miles away with all of its idiosyncracies and dynamics is going to affect our climate?  They couldn't get a forecast right when it was a couple hundred miles to our south!

Give me a break.

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Actually the forecast from 10pm wasn't too bad.  Especially compared to others.  Would we have liked to do better...yes...but we are perfectionists.

New Blog!

LOL snow therapy!

tell me about it...

and now they tell us that next week is't looking good either!!

I think they want to kill us all at once!... <_<

yeah kellyann...the flurries here are off an on...very light too....

light snow in harrisonville...

somewhat incouraging.

Brent-did you see the new blog? There's still a little hope!

Wow--Gary you sure are right.  You could correclty predict the forcast 99 out of 100 times but that ONE time you were SLIGHTLY off would make national news and make all the other stations say you are being arrogant and all this crap.  Good grief!  I firmly believe that you are the most accurate, not only in KC, but also in the midwest.  You still nailed the forecast...

Team-Thank you for all that you do...and for the fact that all my fellow teachers now call me the "weather girl" at our school.  I love being right the majority of the time!  Thanks for the confidence boost!  :)

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Bring your kids in for a tour sometime!  We'd love to meet them!

Jeremy

When will you be giving a spring forcast or maybe another 45 day forecast.  The meteorological spring is only 30 days away and the time change is only little over 5 weeks out.  

Thanks

Since only a trace or no snow has fallen across the metro area, a forecast of 1 1/2 inches of snow is just as big a bust, at least on a percentage basis, as a forecast of 4 to 8 inches of snow.  Eight inches.. 4 inches.. 1 inch.. it is all infinately more than a trace or zero.  

That said, the lower amount forecast was, of course, closer to zero than the higher amounts forecast.  

Well, sometimes 'the models' lead you astray.  After all, the models are not the real world.. they are models of the world.  They can't take everything into account.  Nobody is at fault, really, it is just the nature of the beast.  And that beast is the atmosphere - something that will never be modeled perfectly, LRC or otherwise.

I would say, though, that rules of thumb in synoptic meteorology might assist in dectecting these busts ahead of time.  You know, like barometer readings and trends in conjunction with winds and the time since the last cold front.. things like that.. if such rules of thumb in terms of observing the real atmostphere ahead of a storm still exist out there.  

The basic problem here seems to be the upper trough dug too far south and its energy is too concentrated at the base of the trough, but also a lack of moisture entraining into the system.

The barometer has  also above 30 inches all day and only bottomed out around 29.93 inches at about 5 PM yesterday.. with a slow rise ever since yesterday evening..   This does not seem conducive to much of a storm and the barometer readings are pretty high for any kind of significant storm, one would generall thing.. especially considering the lack of pressure gradient and any kind of resultant wind.

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I think the reactions would be a lot different if we went 8" and saw nothing.  Gary had 1-4" early yesterday and then changed it to dusting-2".

Nowcasting is a key to the forecast and that is one reason Gary changed to the low total last night while others still talked of a big storm.

Jeremy