NBC Action Communities

It is snowing again here in South Lee's Summit...it did stop earlier, not too long after it started, and the sun did come out.

Hi Gary,

I think you all did an excellent job. I am disappointed that we did not get the snow though as I am a snow lover like you are. I hope we can get at least one really good snow this year!!!

Here's to hoping :)

Temp down to 30.4 and moderate snow. Starting to accumlate... was a very light dusting, now starting to really coat things up. (Kingsville).

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Keep us updated!  Great news!

Jeremy

very very few flurries still on the plaza... just little guys.

did someone say an inch?.....

if we get an inch of snow you guys are awesome.

right now its light snow.... and 34 degrees.

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I'm hoping for a half inch for you!  Keep my standards low:)

Jeremy

Gary, No snow yet in Sedalia. i did want to say something in response to you saying your forecast wasnt perfect. One thing i have learned in my short time in following the weather seriously. There will never be a perfect forecast. No one can ever make a perfect forecast. What you are tyring to do as a meteorologist and i hope to be doing in 4-5 years after i go to MU, is look at all the data and analyze to your best. We will never know what mother nature will do all we can to do is learn from the past and look for similar setups. Mother Nature will always have a twist when we think we have it right.
Thanks for all you do with the blog.

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Thanks for sharing your comments.  You can never beat the weather...only tie it!

Jeremy

Very light snow in lenexa 87th and I-35. The wind is strong out of the north.
As always great work!

Thank you

With all the variety of TV and radio weather forcasts, it's too bad we can't vote on and elect which one will actually happen.  I'll bet Jeremy's paycheck that NBC wouldn't win seeing how the blog is filled with snow lovers.  My vote would go for the channel that predicted up to 8 inches.  Yours was by far the most accurate and I should have known not to get excited when, last night, I didn't feel Gary was much enthused with what was comming.

By the way, I stepped outside about an hour ago (in Knob Noster) and counted 17 snow flakes!

Fayetteville Jim

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Jim,

You may see a little snow accum.  Keep us updated.  You should shoot for Gary's paycheck...not mine:)

Jeremy

light snow here...no accumulations.

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You may just get some snow on the grass.  Surface temps are near freezing there.

Jeremy

Lawrence has clouded up and the wind is stronger. It keeps trying to spit out some snow.

Brian

My first report!

I appreciate your blog and the efforts you take to keep us informed.  Steady moderate snow now at I70 and Noland.  The wind is very slight.  Could have sworn it was blowing significantly from the east.  Is this storm wrapping around?

Thanks for the opportunity to contribute!

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Thanks for taking the time to inform us!  We look forward to hearing from you again soon!

Jeremy

Well I hope I didn't hurt any of your feelings with all my joking around!  I'm totally impressed that you can even get the temperatures right!  It's sure WAY over my head. I just get really excited for snow!  I love reading other people's thoughts and jokes!  I know you can't get it perfect - I don't expect anyone can.  As my mom always throws up at me (she's 82) - "well, when I was growing up in the depression the only way we knew the weather was to walk outside."  That was probably the last era of the perfect forecasts!

Anyway -- you guys do great!  Thanks for losing sleep for us!  Just ignore the mean comments -- everybody probably said it all anyway, and now they just put it out in writing!  (As a legal assistant. . . not to smart to put such things in writing!)  :)

Anyway - BRAYSMAMA and BRENT!  We're gonna get some inches!  I'm hoping!  You should Brent - don't you live south and east?

I heard the forecast, I think you got as close as you could.  My mom lives in Joplin and they are getting what we want!  I am so jealous of her!  We need at least 1 biggie before the season is over!  What are our chances of having one?  Great job by the way!

It has been snowing for awhile here in Blue Springs, kind of looks like floating snow.  Not much sticking to anything.

Gary,
You said you never thought it would be a big storm.....  Here's what you said: "It is becoming more obvious that the heaviest snow will be farther south and east this time.  We are thinking 1 or 2 inches up near St. Joseph, and 4 or more inches south of Harrisonville.  If I were to make a forecast for Kansas City right now I would say 2 to 3 inches of snow.  Now, if a comma head does form these totals will be higher.  This is something we will be working on for the 5, 6, and 10 PM weathercasts and we will have a special snowfall forecast that we will post to the blog around 6:30 PM.  We will update the blog this evening, or if we gain confidence in one direction or another."

I think no matter what, we all missed it... Last night on the news, you did seem confused as to why the NWS has issued a WinterStorm Warning....

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If you look back to yesterday around noon to 4pm we were the only one's that did not say 6"+ for parts of the viewing area.  Was the forecast perfect no, but we feel if people watched us they were given the best forecast available in this area.

Jeremy

Gary I think people need to see weather forecasts in shades of gray, instead of black and white.  I look at a forecast from the standpoint, "Was it close to the actual event?" not that it wasn't perfect, so it's just wrong.  Anyway, you and the team have had the best forecast for today's events, no question.

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We feel the same way to when you look at the past 1-7 days as a whole.  Consistent and arrived at the correct conclusion of dusting-2" in spots last night at 10pm.

Jeremy

Yikes.  I hate to contribute to the critique, but the above blog dialogue lends to the need to have a fair view of what has been communicted.

January 24th - "Look below at the forecast for one week from today.  This is a strong winter storm forming.  The blue dashed line is the rain/snow line.  It is again in our viewing area. We won't go further into our analysis as it is still so far away, but confidence is growing, and this is what we have been expecting, based on my theory."

Today - "We never thought it would be a big storm, and I am not that surprised at what has happened so far today."

It is rarely the science I dispute.  Most often it is the communication.

So, I better now praise the team now as not to seem overly critical..

Good work team.

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Scott,

Come on!  Thank you so much.  O.K.  But, Scott it IS a strong winter storm.  There is nearly one foot of snow near the Oklahoma/Kansas border.  Isn't this pretty big?  So, it isn't for us, but I wouldn't say that statement from last week is that bad.  As it approached we never thought it looked healthy for us.

Do you agree?

Gary

I don't think the forecast was that bad (especially when compared to the NWS--a warning, really??).  When you blogged yesterday that your inhouse models were showing no snow, I knew this event was going to be on the small side.  Little tidbits like that is what makes this blog great.

No snow here in south Raytown...  Gary, I was up watching Brett this morning before I went to sleep....  He was showing a lot less snow for us than you did last night.  You were never excited about the storm.

It looks like the temps got warmer than predicted.  The storm went way farther south.  I believe that the heaviest snow is going to track across NE OK and southern MO.  The models even showed the storm going farther south.  

Predicting the weather is not perfect...   Mother Nature has the ultimate say in what happens.

Kristi

How does this relate to the LRC? This storm was farther north last time?

Scott you are critiqing? WOW

It looked like a big storm seven days ago...  But, as we all saw, the models trended downward, especially yesterday.  Gary was never excited on air about the storm.

Kristi

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It was a big storm, just south of the viewing area.

Jeremy

great job team!  we have had no snow in chillicothe besides about 5 flurries.  i made a bet last night with someone who watched ch5 and i will win again!  I said maybe a dusting but probably nothing.

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Next time just bet them that they have to watch Gary from now on! 

Jeremy

Hey RogOzSam-we have a white lawn now-not brown!! Not sure what's up with Brent-how's he missing out on it again?? Temps down to 29.2 with moderate snow still!! :)

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Keep us updated!

Jeremy

So is Grandview in the southern portion that could get 1-2 inches today?

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No!

Jeremy

Just stepped outside a few minutes ago and there is definately a dusting of snow on the ground around the Marceline area.  oh, and it is still lightly snowing.

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Keep us updated!

Jeremy

I know the LRC blog is coming, so I won't steal its thunder...

But based on today's events, or even those in the last week - in preparation for that blog, try to figure out what today's pattern related to - in not just the last cycle but the previous one as it relates to the LRC.

I hear many people state that  " it did such and such on this date, and it is 54 days later, so I should expect x"  - Even my method focuses on the surface, but it is NOT this simple.

Focus on the surface is not the LRC as I understand it.  

The LRC can show you cycles of similar UPPER LEVEL patterns in chunks as it relates to previous cycles.  It can also show you longwaves that will ultimately help in forecasting upper air storm tracks.  

Gary has stretched out to try to forecast sensible weather based on the upper level trends. The 45 day forecast is evidence as such, and really the first time I have seen Gary try to attempt this,  but by defintion, the theory does not include any surface analysis.

The 45 day forecast was not overly detailed for the surface, but it is hitting the general trends as related to the upper level.

So, before Gary responds with the "Scott, you just don't see it.  The upper air is directly related to the surface", Yes, I know.  But what I don't think is very clear is that many of the people the support the LRC view it at a "sensible" level, and really don't see how the upper air trends are the main focus and the big difference between the two.

I think the upper air trends as it relates to the cycle are very - very good this year.  The LRC is a very difficult thing to show in this medium.  It really needs to be shown via animated clips with the parts to be compared in motion.  Then is becomes obvious.

Anyway..I am sure this will spawn more discussion, but I am saving much more for later when the LRC is an open topic on this blog a bit later today or tomorrow.

Back to snow griping.  LOL

THANK YOU Braysmama!  Yea, Brent, how come you aren't having any?  Whatcha think Jeremy? Is Kingsville gonna be one of those little BIG SNOW pockets!  It's a little pocket town - population 181 or so!  :)

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Probably a half inch...maybe not quite an inch.

Jeremy

Yikes Jeremy!!!! Easy up there...Here is why I asked, because I am south of KC!!!!!

Areas southeast of Kansas City have the best chance of seeing 1 to 2 inches of snow out of this band, whereas areas to the northwest may just have a few flurries.

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I think you took that the wrong way:)  I think areas like Warrensburg, Sedalia, Marshall, Clinton stand the best chance of that type of accumulation.

Jeremy

Gary, I agree...my point was a week ago, it was a huge storm, but today in this entry, you said you all didn't think it would be a big storm.  

Clearly it is a big storm, but not for this area.  Just the communication Gary, it at times is confusing.

Actually, Jeremy's comment back was more clear than what you overwrote it with.

LOL

Anyway, Im so sick of the on again off again flurries that I am ready for warm weather!! If we can't have a winter, I would just as soon not have any cold or flurries :)

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I'm very ready for some sun and 80s!

Jeremy

I was right !  I predicted nothing, we got nothing! NADA, zip, zilch, big fat goose egg.  Very disappointing!  Not your fault weather team, I blame mother nature.  If its gonna be cold it better snow!  Snow is the only thing I like about winter.  Still  hoping for a big one, Staci in brown Tonganoxie

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Staci,

Thanks for the report.  Darn mother nature!

Jeremy

SNOW VEST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  YES!!!!

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I just saw the snow vest and shredded it!  Oh wait, maybe not.

Jeremy

Brent, I wish you the best in getting some snow today. In Grandview, we are getting a lot of wind and it is snowing but not super hard. Now, back to studing my Pharmacology :(

Gary/Jeremy and the weather team--The sun is popping out in downtown Topeka--the flurries were sporadic but interesting to watch. You all do a fine job and keep it up.  The LRC is a useful weather tool.  The uniqueness of every year and the cycyling of days are interesting to watch.  Since we are on this side of the Rockies strange things can happen sometimes even though the pattern is set.  I monitor all types of weather sources across Kansas because every source brings something to learn to the table.  But you all are very accurate in pinpointing details in your forecast by the use of the LRC.  This winter still has some memories to bring before we get to spring.  For those of you who like to attend more than one spotter presentation--Wichita's WS has a presentation titled "Storm Fury on the Plains".  And the Topeka WS has a great information packet that is really cool in color.  I printed it off.  I am sure the NWS in Northwest Missouri (Pleasant Hill) has something great to offer too.  Keep up the good work---Michael/Berryton/Topeka

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Michael,

Thanks for the post.  The severe weather classes are highly recommended for all!

Jeremy

Drexel. Light to moderate snowfall here now. After the dusting this morning melted off this is starting to accumulate on my deck again. Hey GARY and Weather Team I think you should remind those that criticize that not only is snowfall amounts one of the hardest things to forecast but I can remember not so many years ago that just predicting snowfall more then a couple of days in advance was a crap shoot. I think you all do a GREAT job and having lived all over the country you are among the very best network Meteorologists out there. Keep up the good work.
Mike

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Mike,

Keep in mind we are talking about the difference of about .10" of liquid.  In the summer not a big deal, but in the winter it makes a huge difference.

Jeremy

Jeremy,
I was referring to the metro area...  I should have made myself clearer in my second post about the heavier snow going farther south. :)  

Personally, I am ready for spring!

Kristi

Just went outside to measure and it's so fluffy but after several times I came up with just under a quarter inch. (Kingsville) Don't hold me to that total!! :)

first you said four inches for Knob Noster, now you are saying 1, which is it?

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The range was 1-4" yesterday.  Gary said today you still have a chance of 1-2"...probably close to 1".

Jeremy

update.. light snow in chillicothe but nothing sticking that much.  

Good Question Andrew.    If the storm would have missed us to the north, we would have expected that, but diving so far south threw us all off.    Last week when the storm was forecasted, even the weather team expected it to shift north, not south, since it has been doing it since the cycle was identified.      I understand it cant predict the exact location, but to be off that far makes it seem a bit less impressive.     Its nice knowing that a storm will be in the area so far in advance, but other dynamics prove it is far from an exact science.  

This is not to bash the team or even say they blew the forecast.   I think they did the best they could with the info they had, and even with the LRC (which would make them think more), they had one of the lowest totals to start with and never flipped flopped like others.   They stuck to their guns with 1-4 and in the end it just went too far south.  

Great job on keeping us informed and a decent job on the forecast.    Now the clock is ticking and we need at least 1 good snow storm or a few decent ones to keep the validation of the LRC alive in many.    You put yourself out their early on and nailed the cold weather part, but may have overdone the snow totals.   Last year was easier to sell the LRC because the cycle was not nearly as active, as opposed to this year and the expectations.

Joe

here in Parkville we have 0.0 inches of snow. Not one snowflake all day. This storm stinks.

When is the next chance of accumulating snow?

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Should be next week(fingers crossed).

Jeremy

Soooooooo.....lets focus on the next weather event?  See anything out there of interest?

I think you did fine with the forecast, you never said it was going to be anything huge. I was wondering if maybe this one could be compared to when OK and southern areas had ice before we had our ice storm up north? I may be way off on our days. I just remember southern areas getting ice a few days before we had our turn.  The next focus is on sunday/monday, any chance of anything out of this?

It is still snowing lightly in Harrisonville,The flakes are getting a little bigger. Anyone else getting a light dusting?...the ground is starting to turn white here....

the driveway is still just wet though....its 30 degrees.

Braysmama - it was a nice hope!  Still snowing in Blue Springs, but don't think it's gonna be anything big!  At least I got to SEE some anyway!  Guess I'm with you Jeremy on the warm weather - although sunny and 60 is the best!  :)  NO BUGS!  Or mice, or spiders or snakes . . . all the lovely country critters!  

I guess I mean if it isn't gonna snow, then it may as well be time for spring!  

I personally stopped looking at another weather channel blog because of the fact that everyone was so critical, SO WHAT, Mother Nature changed her mind, she is a WOMAN like myself we do that.  Quit being Critical and lets look at what may or may not be next in the forecast.  Move on to the next event.  I want to hear about up coming possibilities not everyone moaning and griping.  Just my two cents.  ;)
Weather Team keep up the great work, We win some and Lose some.

Weather team, how much do u predict will fall in Columbia? 3 inches maybe?

MBJB - it isn't moaning and griping.  This is Snow Lovers Anonymous.  You seem to have entered a group therapy session.  Are you here by accident?

Snow God said in his blog yesterday afternoon that the storm might produce nothing for us. Anyone upset at the forecast just wasn't paying attention. The man hedged his bet, and it was proper to do so.

Lezak is still the best in town, and still our Snow God!

It's snowing real good in Knob Noster now.  If this keeps up we could start accumulating.  Right now I'd say we just passed the dusting mark.

Guys,
I am over this one already. I heard a few minutes ago St.Louis is going to get hit big. That's alright it is there turn. Let us move on now. So what is it looking like down the road? Are there more storms linning up? I know Gary had said the pattern was becoming active again. Is there anything major showing up? Gary i could tell you never got excited about this storm. That is how i knew this one was not going to be much. Sure enough it isn't.

-Rodney

Snowing nicely in Creighton (between Harrisonville and Clinton) right now. Hopefully this will continue fro the rest of the night. I appreciate the accuracy of your forecasts, but like most of the people here, I really do want the snow. This is my first post, although I have been reading the blog for awhile now. I don't understand why there are so many people who are being negative. Weather isn't an exact science - too many variables. The NBC team is doing an awesome job. I think the rest of us are amateurs who enjoy weather and are trying to learn something. Let's try to keep an open mind and play nice.
Keep up the good work Gary and Jeremy - we appreciate you!

Thanks for the update...some snow for Marceline...right now it is snowing the hardest it has done all day

My area just had their SA cancelled.

The team never wavered from its forecast.  The team was closer than everyone else thru this.  Good job, team, for sticking to your guns!

I am disappointed that it did not snow and that my Jayhawks did not win last night.  But it is not the end of the world. :)  The sun did rise today. :)

Kristi

We have to have a quarter inch on the ground by now and still snowing moderately. Temp at 28.4 degrees. Brent-wish I could send some your direction...

no worries braysmama...I got .50 inch here of my own...

light to moderate snow here!

come on stay 6 more hours

how heavy do you think that snow is and will it make it to Appleton City Thanks....great job on the forecast by the way

Have fun with the snow you guys down south. We have had too much of it here in Parkville this season, this storm is for you guys. Maybe next time it will be more widespread.

Good work team! I think we are all disappointed by the lack of snow, but I personally am not too surprised.  You guys did the best you could predicting this tricky storm and I certainly appreciate you not "crying wolf" and predicting massive amounts of snow like others were doing yesterday.  

I can't remember who said that the teachers at her school call her the "weather girl"... but teachers at my school refer to me as Mrs. Lezak... because I rave about Gary and the weather team and give weather updates daily.... hourly on days when storms are coming!  

RogOzSam
You wont have much to say when the severe storm season comes then?  I am just learning thats it and want people to stay with the weather and not be mean to our wonderful weather team.

Wait a minute!  Go measure again Braysmama!  How did Brent get more than us and it started snowing later? NOT FAIR!  Unless he was standing in a big drift!  LOL

No accumulation here in OP. More snow melted though. No hope for a good snow(5")for another 300 days.

Oh and by the way, great forcast weather team. You guys were spot on with this one.

solid half inch of very fluffy snow in Harrisonville

I'm sending pictures to Gary.

I hate to break up you guys' party...but no one has even gotten an inch yet with this have they?
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"You guys were spot on with this one."

Okay sorry MBJB - I guess I misunderstood you!  Nah, I'll be loving thunder and lightening (but not tornados!) -- I guess I like most weather extremes.  It's the dog days of summer I can't stand!  Boring.  And I think Gary and Jeremy and all do a GREAT job - I wasn't being mean!  Us snowlovers are trying to console one another . . . that's the group therapy!  Not the mean stuff!  :)

RogOzSam-just remeasured and found a large flat are of ground where the grass don't grow and in five different area's measured 1" of snow and it's still snowing moderately.

an inch!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I got half that!

Brent, go to the new blog thats up

Brent-it's been snowing here a lot longer than where you are. It's getting to the point I can barely see the top of the grass blades where I live. Maybe an inch is too high, but for sure 3/4 of an inch.