NBC Action Communities

You guys were so much more accurate then the other stations. Dont be too hard on yourselves. When is the next chance for an accumulating snowfall?

Gary - Thank you.  Your admitance counts more in my book than accuracy.  

On to the next storm..or wait..do we have a LRC blog coming up?

Gary and Weather Team,

I am glad that the snow went further to the south as it makes traveling much easier around here (Topeka to Lawrence). As far as the forecasting goes, I think you hit the nail on the head for SE of Kansas City that they could see 4" plus.

Ryan

Actually, the NWS blew it, with their Winter Storm Warnings and predictions of 5-7 inches. You were pretty much on target, 1-4", and you emphasized as early as last night on this blog that even that might be too generous. So don't be too hard on yourself.

A light dusting here in Grain Valley, at least it's nice to look at.

Ok-I went out and found a flat area of ground where there is no grass growing on it and in five different area's measured 1" of snow. Does that sound about right? Am I measuring wrong?? Still snowing moderately in Kingsville.

From my perspective at Rancho De Baker near Reno, you hit the bullseye.

As your forcast began at 10:17 last night, when the NWS was calling for 3-5" near Lawrence, you forcast a dusting to an inch near Lwarence, and even mentioned the storm could trend towards lower amounts. You then tracked the low farther South of the KS/OK border and mentioned how you thought the heaviest snow would set up SE of us. You mentioned this lower prediction was not in agreement with other forcasts. This is exactly what happened.

We got a nice dusting near Reno. Maybe .25-.50" - just like you said. Don't be too quick to judge yourself so harshly - there are plenty of people who will be happy to do that for you.

I will not pile on.  My beef is with the NWS.  Someone should get called onto the carpet over there.  Keep up the good work and thanks for being honest.

Gary,
  You didn't blow it.... mother nature just decided to remind you that she's still in charge.  I still know that you and the team are the most reliable, most accurate weather team going.   Thank you for your enthusiasm, knowledge and experience that bring us the best of the best!

What a surprise. KC hardly EVER gets the big snowstorms. They are almost always someplace else. You did fine on the forecast, Gary. The NWS blew the forecast big time, and only switched to lower amounts at the last minute. The Topeka NWS was still predicting 2-3 inches for Lawrence today. LOL

thanks gary for admittng you all blew it at least you all didnt try to convince us all that you got it right in some way shape form another that means more to us than blowing smoke our butt thanks

Any guess as to how much longer the snow will continue down here??

NWS really blew this one BIG time. This morning at 7:30 AM, the NWS still was thinking 3-5 inches for Parkville. Haha, that made me laugh this morning. We havent gotten one snowflake all day.

I just got a call from a friend in Warrensburg and he said everything is white, the ground is covered. What a difference a few miles makes. I live 4.5 miles southeast from work. I left work as the sun was peaking through and I get home to a dusting of snow and snowing light to moderately.

You were on track, the LRC on this one throws me though as I was just praising this to a co-worker yesterday and than this happened.
The NWS should be run out of town on a snow shovel though. There forecasting is why they are stuck in a building out in the sticks, and you are on the radio and TV.
Iwould have bags over my head leaving that place today!!!!! and I hope they read your blogs, they may learn athing or two.

Thank you for calming your disappointed bloggers.

Going forward we are a bit skiddish now though.

Gary, how can you even say you guys blew it? You were telling us last all day and last night most of us would see a dusting to and inch and farther south up to 4, then you even mentioned that might be too high.

I think you guys are very responsible for saying that you blew the forecast...and you still have me as a watcher and listener of your channel....you weren't that far off....
so....ok job!

lol

I think .75 inches here in H ville now....

I sent a pic to Gary...and to the weather email address.

Woo hoo!  Thank you Braysmama!  Hopefully we're in that "Warrensburg" blizzard!  Whatcha got going on Brent?

Gary.... you and your team at Action News are the Best, and I don't think you blew this forecast at all you said it was going to go south and it did. Keep up the good work....

By the way... I have a question? With these breaks in the clouds and it snowing at times... can a rainbow form in snow crystals? I guess if it can it wouldn't be a "rain-bow" but a "snow-bow"  :-)

Thanks Again for all your hard work... you make weather fun!

Sam

Brent-what time did it really start snowing in Harrisonville? We had moderate snow since about 1:00pm and it hasn't quit. The snow in Kingsville (where I'm located anyway) is deep enough when I stepped out in my sandles my shoe ended up getting snow in it. Ok, went and measured again and still coming up with one inch.

.8 inches in Harrisonville

light snow falling

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Brent,

YEAH!  You have more than the rest of the city.  And, the 1-4 inches is happening, but we missed it by two counties. 

Gary

Brent-are you happy? :)

No...

I was going to be happy with 6...lol

I am still waiting.

the snow started around 1:45 here
it took a while for it to saturate maybe.

I'm sure theres people with an inch now.,

Its a fluffy inch...lol

You saying you "blew the forecast" is alittle rough I think. You were not that far off. I have about .50 inches down here....I  imagine we will end up with about an inch by the time it is all over. Wish we had more...but at least my grass is covered with snow now and it looks pretty. The kids in school were doing a snow dance in first and second grade.....when they got out of school it was snowing....they thought that was the coolest thing ever. LOL!! :o) Have a good evening.
Monica
Pleasanton KS

Yeah, we in Kingsville at or right above an inch and it is FLUFFY!! I would have enjoyed 4 or more inches, but I'll take what I can get. :)

For what it's worth, I think the weatherteam did a great job with this one.  You never got overly excited and called it like you saw it.  You always said 1-4" and warned us that it could be even less.  So, I think you deserve a pat on the back.  

I got a call from my sister in Peoria, IL...she called to yell at me for sending her our snow.  I told her that I didn't know what she was talking about since we just got a dusting.  LOL!

I wouldn't say you blew it, you were saying an inch might be about right, we got nothing, but the other guys were saying 5-8 inches (some of them).  They blew it, you just missed it by a hair!

Gary, how many counties are in your viewing area?  

To the whole weather team YOU did not blow it! Thank you for your great forecasting and the education you give to viewers like me,who know nothing about the weather and how to read maps!I use to be very loyal to another channel,but over this winter you have changed my loyalty.Thanks for your great blogs and forecast.

Yep!  I'm happy and have something to look forward to when I get home!  ZStill spitting a little in Blue Springs but not much.

snows done here..

total .8

I think Gary handled this one well myself, not perfect, but what is??? We got a light dusting here in Peculiar..Looking forward to the next one!!!!!

Blue Springs

Snow Showers and a dusting


BTW its Knob Noster, not Knoster

Its really snowing down in Knob Noster, We have 2.7 inches so far, and still coming down strong, You got it right down here Gary.

Snow is certainly lightening up...just measured and average is about 1.1 inches of snow in Kingsville. Some "drifts" are 3 to 4 inches.

No problems here with your forecast Gary.   The models all showed the true path but none wanted to believe.   You missed the forecast, but still did better than any other source throughout the week.   You did not go back and forth with totals.   We all know it is as frustrating for you as it is for us.   In the end mother nature had the last laugh.   We shall wait for the next storm and see what possibilities it brings our way.

Kudos to Jeremy for taking the time to blog while on vacation.   The guy is hooked just like us!    You have been a great addition to the KSHB team

wow.....the south got hit...I just missed out!
knob knoster has 2.7 inches!!!!!!!!?

Hey scott I'll give you this link which basically shows the Kansas City television market and the viewing area which KSHB covers... KSHB and the rest of the KC stations DO cover St.Joseph, but its considered its own television market because they have a station up there, I really dont get it though...

http://ekb.dbstalk.com/TVMarkets/City%20Maps/Kansas%20City.gif

As far as Gary blowing it, I think he's just dissapointed in himself and has such high standards for forecasting a storm, where being a few counties off isn't good enough anymore.. Its a very rough situation in my opinion though because its so hard to predict a winter storm system let alone nail accumulations for specific counties!

just wanted to let you know we have 5 inches down in creigton and its still coming down... doesnt look like much longer though

The amount of snow in Blue Springs depends on what side you are. I came from the NW corner and there wasn't any accumulation and here about 4 miles SE of there we have .20 inches, I wouldn't be suprised if the far SE side had almost .50 inches.

We just hit 3 inches in Knob Noster... Gary, would you like some pictures?.. also just heard of some road closings in Johnson County, MO...

It just started snowing pretty good here!

maybe an inch?

5 inches in creighton?......

.........
..........

While greatly disappointed that the snow didn't hit us as hard (it is still snowing her in Harrisonville) I say BAH to the grumpy people.  I was telling my daughters the other day that when I was young we woke up and discovered snow---no great predictions---or you looked out and saw what was happening.  I still think you guys are the ones to watch.  Plus we're getting seriously addicted to this blog, learning lots.  Thanks guys!

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We are glad you are enjoying the blog!  And, thanks for the kind words.

Gary

w.e.i.r.d........

its snowing the heaviest I have seen it snow all day!....and the radar isn't showing it!

I think we are closing in on an inch!!!!!

wow its snowing really good here!

we have an inch now!

we made it in under the 1 to 4 inches!

good Job Gary!

do you want some pictures?
and did you get the ones I sent?

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Brent,

We will look for them.

Gary

Hey We had a snow for like a hour and we havent had any snow since. Trace in Olathe

Gary, last night at 10 one of the other stations predicted 3-6" for the metro area - you had a very skeptical 1-4" - I say you still get the prize for most accurate forecast in KC.

Gary,
Just sent some pictures your way Sir.

Woo Hooo!!!  I just went out and measured.  We're a little over a mile south of Warrensburg city limits and I have, after averaging 5 measurements, 5 inches of snow.  My girls can't wait to make snow ice cream tonight!
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Wow!  Thanks for the report!

Gary

Wow, I just live about 10 minutes away from Warrensburg and they have 5 inches? And we were in the same heavy band of snow... Are you sure that wasnt a drift? or were you on a hill?

Hello All!
We made it to O'fallon, MO just west of St. Louis. We left Lee's Summit around noon and it was sunny skies. We arrived just north of Sedalia on 70 East and it started lightly snowing. By the time we reached Warrenton and Wentzville the snow started picking up and sticking to the roads. Its 6:00 and we have 2-3 inches of snow with 6-9 more inches on the way. We couldnt make it to the wake because our daughter got sick in the car. Nothing like smelling vomit for three hours to O'fallon. THen she broke out in hives so we had to stay at my sisters house and did not go to the wake which is another hour south of here in Festus.

The snow is pretty and the funeral will be beautiful tomorrow. Grandpa loved the snow, so we think this was his way of saying goodbye.

Take care everyone, and I am sorry that KC didnt get the snow you all wanted.

Mike & Kristine in LS

One comment here and it is not about the missed snowfall.. it is about your arbitrary times of new 'blogs.'

Personally, I think it is time you have a known and up front schedule as to when you will start a new 'blog.'  

It seems a bit unfair that nobody who comments here seems to have a clue with regard to the matter of when there will be a new blog.. except, of course, the blog-masters themselves.

In the interest of fairness and objective comment on the scientific matter of weather forecasting, is there a 'blog schedule' at all here?

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We don't have a blog schedule!  Maybe we will evolve into this, but when a storm is coming in we get very distracted.   I still think we kept you updated in a timely manner.  I did the 2 PM update as I was running out the door to get to work.  It isn't as easy as you think.  I, personally, spend 4 hours a day on the blog.

Gary

1.1 inches here!

it really looks like more...but its 1.1

another 1 inch snowstorm...that makes 8 this year!

8 snowstorms with an inch or less of snow....

I see a trend here....

wow lol i cant believe i would get excited about two inches it came down hard here...

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Daniel,

Thanks for the report!

Gary

dang brent u had more snow than drexel had, we only had like a quarter inch again!!!!! Drexel is now more snow deprived than you even.

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Drexel's turn must come sometime this season!

Gary

Im up here north of the river and it is snowing hard and nothing is on the radar. We have picked up a dusting in about 10 minutes!

wow didn't do much at all all day and now I look outside and there's a dusting on the ground lmao i'm in lenexa :)

i think LS got about a dusting :(

twister, my husband justdrove in from the city and he said that even just a few miles from town and into town they didn't have as much as we have here at our house.  I measured in 5 non-drifted spots and 5 inches was the average.

Gary, I really hope so!!!!!!

yeah it wasn't too bad here....I would have liked a lot more...but 1.2 inches is ok.....

I think I could sled on it......

now on to the big storms Gary said would come!?......

In retrospect, I thought the NAM did fairly well this time showing the storm setting up around the Kansas - Oklahoma border. Yep, the models were kind of screaming at us that the storm was going south.

Hey Gary, I don't think you blew the forecast, we just all had a bad case of LRC-itis!

Mike

Gary, do you think there will be a nice snowstorm in the next couple of weeks? Still snowing good here in Parkville, I think we are approaching a half an inch!

Let me correct my earlier entry...make that 3/10 of an inch...but enough to cover the ground. I think my girl's chances of a sledding snow this year are about over. Oh well...guess their is next year to look forward too. I am still laughing about Jeremy saying he was gonna shred Gary's snow vest..LOLOLOL, I know he was kidding and all but that sure was funny!!! LOLOL!!!
Monica
Pleasanton KS

Gary what about the snow on the radar down by chaunte do  you think it will make it to kansas city  

It's all good Gary!

I'm glad I don't have to do my job on tv for people to give their opinions and gripes about!  No one is perfect, we all just do the best we can with the info we are given!  You're still number one in my book!

Hopefully The next storm system will give us another 2-4 inches of snow or a Big snowstorm

I am a bit irratated, We got a dusting of snow in the morning but the snow stoped and the sun came out! It took about three or four minutes to melt the prexisting half inch of snow.Around Two, it started snowing again but nothing accumulated. I only want snow if it brings 6 or more inches of snow. Otherwise im done with winter

 Good Evening Gary, Is that re-devlopement in Wichita?

2.5 inches here in Clinton!!!  Wow, let my guard down then looks what happened!!  Family lives on South side of Warrensburg and they measured just a hair over 6 inches.  Hwy 13 North was shut down due to all the wrecks and horrible road conditions.  The police scanner has been non stop.  Take care, Jim in Clinton.

0 inches here in north kansas city...i wasent supprised i have been getting missed all year we just have 1 to 2 inch storms..

Good evening to all. We are having some very light snow up here in Lawson. My car windshield is covered. My husband is trying to make it in from St. Louis and I think he is about to throw in the towel and wait it out until morning. He said the road are pretty bad comming out of St. Louis and lots of spin outs and people in the ditch. He wasn't sure how much had fallen, but it took him 4 hours to go 102 miles, so that is pretty slow going. Don't be to hard on yourselves weather team, your still dependable, we will still watch and count on you all to see us thru all the storms and the good days too. Keep up the good work...nwmissourigal

I am confused at what you think you missed?  When I went to bed last night and woke this morning I got the impression from the weatherteam that there would not be much if anything.  It snowed in Liberty but did not accumulate though I will admit I havent' looked outside in past few hours.  The weather information I took from you is exactly what we got. I will admit I was hoping this morning you were going to be wrong just once so we got a good snow.  I remember when I was a kid we always had good snows around here and my parents took me sledding A LOT.  My oldest is 8 and we have never had anything more than 2-3in where we have lived.  I would love for them to see 6 inches or more like I remember as a kid.  

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We may get that 6 inch snowstorm this season sometime before we are done.  This is a good pattern to produce one, so let's see what happens.  Our forecast was almost perfect, and yet, it was wrong.  It snowed our predicted 1 to 4 inches just southeast of the city.  I don't feel really bad about today's forecast, but I know there are some out there that if we would have had just one inch a bit farther northwest it would have been considered perfect.  I think because we have been so accurate the past few winter seasons, we have raised the bar where if we are off just a bit, then we are considered wrong.

Gary

Will there be another blog entry tonight?

In my opinion, the LRC can be a valuable tool for predicting "windows" for when certain types of weather are more likely to occur, but as a tool for predicting the exact track of a snowstorm a month in advance, I don't think the LRC is can do this reliably.  Think about it.  This storm is very similar in nature to the storm from the last cycle and the pattern is about the same, but a slight shift in the storm track of only 100 miles or so to the SE from the storm track in the last cycle made all the difference on who got snow this time and who got missed.  Predicting the exact path where the comma head snows will fall is difficult 1 day in advance, let alone a month in advance!  So I think the LRC can be quite valuable for predicting long-range trends, such as a storm will be in our area on such and such a date, but less so for precise storm tracking such as where the heavy snow band will track.  People should use the LRC trend predictions as advisories on when a precipitation or temperature event is more likely to occur in the area.  People should not expect that because they got 8 inches of snow the last time the pattern cycled that they should expect to get another 8 inches this time, although it might happen.

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Good points!  The same specific results at the surface, like 8 inches of snow, ice, etc. will not be exactly the same as that next cycle produces a similar storm.  Just subtle differences can move the precipitation patterns around.   But, the LRC does help in short range predictions as well.  It is hard to explain, but we just know how a storm is likely to move in and out of a region.  But, if you are right on the edge of a storm, like today, the LRC can be used, but the other factors in forecasting become more dominant.

Gary

Snow nothin'  no surprise yesterday with the dry ENE wind at 20 mph i knew we were toast.  What is up next rain or a mix been busy and am still at work...glanced at the blog the only reason people watch IQ-2 in St Joseph is to catch the high school sports at 23 after the hour no one watches the local weather guy ....hell he pulls maps off of accuweather and puts them on the screen the time or two i've seen him he is on cable ch 10 you are ch 8>>>>>and do a damn good job....I STILL SAY WE HAVE THAT 10-14 INCHER FOR UP HERE WITH KC AREA 6-10....60 more day for it to occur largest storms history wise are in Feb & March.  

Gary,
We have had some very light "misty" snow in Olathe tonight. Do you think there will be a problem with roads in the morning...such as black ice?
(Scott, are you in Olathe? Maybe you could answer if Gary is too busy...)
I'll take anybody's opinion who knows what they are talking about.

About the timing of the blogs....can we get an email infoming us that a new blog is up?

Everybody have a good night!
It will be a BEAUTIFUL day tomorrow as Gary said !

Gary and team, don't take it so hard! ou missed by .10!!!! thats better than anybody else in the metro.

sorry I missed a Y

25 in north Olathe with an extermely "light" dusting and a few flurries. February looks like its going to start off pretty normal, but what are you seeing down the road? How 'bout them Wildcats!

Hi, this is my first time posting here, although I've been reading/watching the blog for several months now, since I discovered it in November.  So...hi everyone :)

I don't know exactly what you think you guys did wrong, but I was so impressed with your predictions the last 24 hours that I have even been gloating about it to my mom, telling her how I wasn't looking for much snow because I had read your forecast.

I saw the Weather Channel's forecast yesterday when we were placed under a WSW and read that we were to get 5-8" of snow.  I got VERY excited, but visited your blog first before believing it, and read that you guys weren't very excited and didn't expect much, and automatically I assumed we'd get relatively little or no snow.  And again, you guys came through.  I've been telling everyone I know that your forecast has been the only reliable one all season, and not only that but you have been reliable 2-3 weeks or so out!!!

Kudos to you guys, I grew up watching you on TV Gary, with Stormy and Windy (I absolutely adored them to pieces) and still to this day you are the best.

Keep up the great work.  You aren't God and you can't make it snow and you are doing a great job.

Tasha - Olathe

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Tasha,

Thank you so much!  It has been a long, long day and we are wiped out, so your blog helps a lot. Welcome, and if you have any more ideas, questions, etc., be sure to let us know.

Gary

Also editing to add that I don't blame TWC's 5-8" forecast...they are by no means a local website/forecast and it was a general forecast for the generic metro....so I'm not blaming them and they are on most of the time.  I just checked with you before getting excited :)

Gary,
We have had some very light "misty" snow in Olathe tonight. Do you think there will be a problem with roads in the morning...such as black ice?

Another little Dusting in Olathe. light snow/Flurries continue to fall. It's tapering off now.

I was talking to a co-worker this morning and he said that another meteorologist in the area said 5-8 but it could go higher.  Oops!

Snow has pretty much stopped in Sedalia. I would say a couple of inches total nothing big. roads are not in good shape.

Gary,

I hope this is some consolation for this forecast.  Last night, leaving work, I told my co-workers that your computers were showing very little snow for KC.  They didn't believe me.  They were believers of some of the other forecasts yesterday.  So today, you have 30 more viewers of YOUR forecasts.  They were all shocked at your accuracy, even if it was 2 counties off.  Don't sweat this one.  Your team is still the most accurate in KC.

-------------

Thanks, and give all 30 of your co-workers a big hug from me! 

Gary

Blew it, busted forecast, missed it....whatever team....mother nature is unpredictable and if you get that close with a forecast, especially with computer models and educated human interpretation, with accuracy within 80 miles, that speaks for itself....I reiterate from a previous blog......OUTSTANDING JOB!!!!!!!!

Gary:

Good Evening to you sir!!  Currently sitting at 29 degrees-took the boys swimming tonight so I got my mind a little cleared!!!

LOL big time at the Get Smart line-that is awesome!!!

A few more random musings-of course as informed as mine were yesterday maybe I should just shelve the random musings for a while LOL!!!

1.  As I posted earlier today, there is no doubt that this one stings a bit-as a snow lover in this area you just wince at missing opportunities and we surly did just miss one-the set up was there it just wasn’t to be our storm. What a swath of snow to our South and East-wow!!!!


2.   With number one in mind, I for sure dug my heels into the ground with this one-the data was there showing that this storm was going to place a decent swath of snow and I just could not fathom that it would dig that far south. No matter what Gary and the Team posted in the Blog yesterday, no matter what the NAM or GFS smacked me in the head with I was just sure that this was coming north and that the models were missing the boat. I grasped and then Blogged at every little straw (legitimate or no) that my little hobbyist mind could get a hold of and that I thought was correct. Kind of like when Obi Won thought he could train Adikan Skywalker with the same results LOL!!!


3. Following number 2, I for sure learned a lot with this storm and it was for sure fascinating to follow. The water vapor imagery last night and this morning was just awesome. I just hope I can remember what I have learned and the next time around I can create some better Blog entries!!!!


Well, time to start looking down the pike and see what the next few weeks can bring us-we do indeed still have some good snow producing days left.  I do fully believe in the LRC so I do think there will be opportunities between now and the end of March so let’s just see what Mother Nature will bring us. By the way-looking at the latest surface data I noticed that the GFS has miss initialized…….

Oh-speaking of Get Smart you got me to thinking of a book title: Missed it By That Much: A Snow Lover’s Account of Missed Snow Storms in Kansas City-living here for most of my life, I could probably fill about 300 pages LOL!!!!

Have a great night and as always thanks for reading and providing such a great place to learn about the weather. You, Jeremy, Brett, and Jeff do a fantastic job on this blog and as always, your forecast record speaks for itself-you guys are Tight!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Thanks again, as usual....great blog comment!

Gary

That was not a busted forecast.  I don't think.  It was a busted NWS forecast.  
Gary said he had warning signs, never really meant what that meant, but he is a snowlover and now I know what his warning signs mean!
It did snow.  It didn't snow much but if you keep updated then who really busted the forecast, of course we all wanted snow.  But atleast the team never went for more then 1-4 inches and yes that did happen in the viewing area.  
Gary, Jeremy , Brett are our winter weather experts.  
Grade A on your forecast, everyone is disapointed by other information sources.
You guys just keep right on rocking the forecasts!  The updates are numerous and again that is "the key".   Great job guys.  NWS, I have know idea what they think sometimes.  This storm did follow a different track this time, it could even be a new trend.. lets hope not, but you can count on the LRC to know when a storm is approaching the area.  It will be different, many times, but that doesn't mean it will do the same thing.  Gary has a passion that no meteorologist has ever had that I know.  I think it's great and his passion spreads to the whole team.  I am greatful for the knowledge on this site.  It is truly amazing!  There are hundreds of junior meteorologists from the knowledge and interaction of thie blog.  Outstanding!  Have a great night NBC and Bloggers!  It will get exciting again... soon.  Yes, I am still ready for the big one, but will the storm tracks be new? The LRC storms are coming, but where might they go?  

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One of them just has to hit us square on!

Gary

.25 inches in Blue Springs but it was very slick driving home from basketball tonight

Hey Gary I have a question.

why do snow bands set up from northeast to southwest?

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Good question Brent, but ask again tomorrow or over the weekend when I have time to answer.

Gary

i do know the area K-dot and Mo-dot did'nt mind the snowstorm missing us , lets give those guys and gals a great BIG THANK-YOU they have done a wonderful job this winter, and the need a little break from all the snow

Emma, MO: Between 4" and 4.5" here on the Lafayette/Saline County Line. Quite a few drifts up to 12" and some in excess of 18". Some roads, such as Hwy 13 south at the Johnson County line, were closed for a time due to whiteout or drifting happening faster than MODOT could clear them. I drove back home from Waverly, where there was barely a 1.5" snow cover and found the older highways around here barely passable.

Walt Snyder

"Good question Brent, but ask again tomorrow or over the weekend when I have time to answer.

Gary"

I understand...but that seems to happen to me a lot lol
what about the esp music?...lol
I know you're busy.

Won't the snow to the south effect the warm up?

At my house in Kingsville, ended up with 1.1 inches today bringing my season total to 7.35 inches. Too bad that heavy band didn't come a few more miles north!

that sounds almost identical to our seasonal total...and our snow today braysmama......

Weather Cast PLUS video updated:
http://www.freewebs.com/kansascityweather/weathercastvideo.htm

Yeah, kinda of a dissappointment this winter, but maybe we will make up for it this spring in storms. (NON severe)

Hmmm. About 7 miles south of Pleasant Hill...and I have EXACTLY one inch of snow. I think the second round redeemed you. Well done, Gary and team. For anybody who complains, why don't YOU try predicting the future?

I was wrong on this storm and you guys were right. I said the storm would turn north and the metro area would get 2-4 inches and areas farther south 4-6 inches. Gary, you and the weather team hit this one right on the head. You guys have said 1-4 inches for awhile now while everyone else said this storm was going to be huge. Maybe I should have payed more attention to the models and what they were screaming at me. Thank you for the consistancy in the weather forcasting.

Tyler in Parkville

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Tyler,

Thanks!  And, good night.

Gary

I dislike the NWS bashing on here-they have a completely different mission than a TV news team.  They will almost always err on the side of putting up watches and warnings if the data a day or two ahead of time is looking genuine for a significant event.  Why? So the 99.999% of people who DON'T spend there 10pm-11pm time frame clicking 'refresh' on the NCEP page WILL make it a point to keep track of the weather whether from the local news or whatever.  

Gary (or any other TV met) is free to tweak his forecasts several times per day based on new model runs, while the NWS, being in most people's mind the 'official' word on dangerous weather situations, is more conservative in taking down watches/warnings until things are more clear.

Predicting weather around here will make a chump out of you sooner or later no matter what.  You want rock solid forecasts-anyone here could make great 45 day forecasts in Seattle all winter long-"rain, changing to showers, with rain developing the next day" will work very well!

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Keep in mind we can't issue or own watches/warnings and are at the mercy of the NWS when it comes to watches/warnings/advisories in the winter even if we disagree with them.  If their forecast is blown they need to step up and say so.  I think everyone here knows that we give the NWS credit when it is due...just look back at past blogs, but this is not one of those times.

To say the NWS should be free of criticism I disagree with.  They issued the Winter Storm Warnings and Snow Advisories for the metro that all TV stations were suppose to pass along.

Jeremy 

My 5 day Forecast is updated:

http://www.freewebs.com/kansascityweather/weathercast5day.htm

Gary,

What do you think of it?

I don't see much in the way of arctic air at all in the extended range. Will we have to wait a few more weeks to have an arctic blast?
CentralOP

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OP,

Looks like the arctic air chances are the highest the first half (10-14 days) of Feb. based on this years pattern.  There will likely be a week to 10 days of below average temps in March when the cold part of Jan. returns.

Jeremy

Well we did have some light misty type snow even a bit after sunset tonight so it did snow just not much, but thanks for being honest you guys are the best, I know I am beating a dead horse when I say this but I want to say it;) YOU DESERVE IT.
As for next week? well it doesn't look terrible cold, but there is a train of vorts still progged to move through so there will be some more fun for sure, and if this cycle is a bit weaker... then you know what that means, March will likely have the "stronger phase" of the pattern, combine that thought with the fact that it will be March and March usually has weird weather, just think:), oh and we still have the rest of this month, I can't complain about missing this one, although we did get some snow even though it didn't accum.  we have had alot!

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Nick,

The return of the active pattern in March may bring severe weather.  Hopefully not, but certainly a concern when we get to that time of year...Spring.

Jeremy

Gary:

Good Morning to you sir!!! currently at 25 degrees with some broken clouds-very nice out this morning!!

After this week of wild weather (Great Blog headline on Monday by the way!!!) I hope that you, Jeremy, Jeff, and Brett can get out and enjoy the weather today and this weekend. Have a great day and I hope you can get some rest-all of you for sure deserve it!!! Just don't forget to talk to the birds LOL!!!

I think early next week will be interesting to watch-both GFS and Euro are hinting at something-Euro a little more than the GFS (I think) and it fits in the LRC (I think??) but way far out so will be interesting to see how it all comes together-there is for sure cold air left in Canada (and I think the Euro is even renforcing the cold air in the extended in Canada) so it will be interesting/fun to watch it all unfold!!

Again, Gary, Brett, Jeremy, and Jeff have a great day and a fantastic weekend-enjoy the weather!!!!! You guys are Tight!!!

Bill yea-it still stings-12 inches in Southern Kansas and Missouri-ouch-in Lawrence

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Bill,

The Sunday-Tuesday storm is very similar to the wet storm we had right before the "slide by" that we had yesterday.  They are sort of reversed in the cycle, but both storms are still there.  The "slide by" acted like the wet storm, and this next one is the wet storm and it may act like the "slide by".  That storm, the last time through, became positively tilted as it moved into Kansas.  So, if it does this again it would limit our potential for anything significant.

Then there should be a few days with some calmer weather before the flow buckles again. 

Gary

Gary..... I have a question.... how come you haven't answered my question about the rainbows? I was serious.... If it is snowing like it was yesterday.... and the sun comes out and it is still snowing... can a rainbow form in snow?

Not sure why but I have asked serveral questions in the past, and never got an answer..... do you guys not like me? :-(

Suburban Sam

Jeremy, first off, my comment was directed at commenters here, not the weather team.  Secondly, my point is not that the NWS wasn't wrong on this forecast, just that they have a different, and IMO, a harder job than you guys do.  Wed morning, the GFS, which everyone agrees has been the best model this winter, was showing a good snow event, certainly reaching Snow Advisory criteria, which is what they posted for my area (Topeka).  Whereas a TV met can just come on and say, "there's a good chance of snow, but things can change, so we'll keep you updated.", the NWS has to actually make a decision at that point to post a watch or not.  And they can't be putting up and taking down watches with every model run that comes out. By getting out on a limb earlier in the event, they are going to be wrong more often, but as I said before, their  job is to get people to follow the situation closely so they can change travel plans, etc. if need be.  

I enjoy the weather discussion on here, but the LRC boosting is getting a little ridiculous.  Apparently, the length of the cycle can change by a week or so, the order of storms can flip flop, and it STILL apparently 'all fits'.  I'm beginning to wonder if it is even possible to falsify the LRC, or if any and all weather can be accomdated within it.

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OK...now I know where you are coming from.  The LRC helps us a lot.  Can it be confusing for some...yes.  But I guarantee you it helps us gain a huge advantage over everyone.  Just look at yesterday.  Gary never went above 1-4" thru noon the day before the event.  This was because he identified which storm this mirrored from December and what happened.  Then knew there were warning signs.  So Gary kept the forecast at 1-4", while ALL others upped totals to 3-6"+ for the metro.  In my opinion Gary tries to share what he has found with others to help understand the weather and give some insight into how we use the LRC in forecasting.  If people choose to use the LRC is up to each individual.  But one thing is certain we will continue to use it and continue to be the most accurate in KC.

Jeremy

Thanks for the reply, Jeremy.  My confusion lies, I think, in my perception that when when sensible weather happens to match a previous storm (whether in intensity or track of the system), it is counted as support for the theory, and if it doesn't we are reminded that the LRC doesn't mean you'll get the same weather every time through the cycle.  The LRC can apparently accomodate both being able to predict that a 1-4 inch storm in December will most likely be of similar strength next time around, and also to predict that storms from November that weren't anywhere near us will dump 8 inches in December.  Plus or minus 3-7 days.

Just to be clear, based on what I've seen, I don't doubt that you guys are better forecasters than your competitors.  I just wanted to give some feedback to Gary that to me, as a scientist (but not a met), how the evidence of the LRC is presented in this blog looks like a textbook example of confirmation bias-everything that matches is accepted, everything that doesn't is waved away.  Anyway, thanks for the forum to share our enthusiasm for fun weather!

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I think with the LRC Gary gets questioned so often that when a clear cut day exists which is very often, he will show you the comparison.  Then when we have a storm like yesterday, Gary still showed what storm it lined up with.  Certainly confusing to some as I mentioned, but following the LRC over the long run will help most to understand it more clearly.

From Gary:  We are just exposing our ideas and the LRC to the public for criticism.  Scientifically, you should allow us to gather this data, information, results, and analysis, and then we will improve on how we use the LRC in the future.  It helps much more than you are giving it credit for. 

When it comes down to it, and a storm is approaching like yesterday, the LRC helps a little, but the forecasting ability by our team is more important.   The LRC correctly predicted how the storm would look, the timing of the storm in the future, but it doesn't help that much on the day of the storm.

Jeremy

If this storm mirrored the december storm...why didn't the northern viewers get the 2 inches of liquid precip we had with the storm in december?....I got 1.75 inches then.

I am confused....I don't think the LRC has really done too much this year...

I know there are those who would be against me...but it seems that no storm has really returned....I mean..the same time frame yes...but it has a different track....different amounts of precip....and lots of other unsimilarities

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The LRC has been amazing this year!  Just let the season go and then we will look back.  But, we have accurately predicted the long cold outbreak in January.  The storm systems to return during the past week or two, and there are more predictions to come.   Think about what you would be saying if this storm, yesterday, would have been just slightly farther north and west.  We would have 6 inches on the ground and your perception would be different. 

Anyway, it isn't perfect, but it is helping so much.  We are leaving ourselves exposed for criticism, and this is fine, but my goodness, our 45 day forecast has been an unbelievably good forecast.  I will go over it soon.

And, there is more to come.  This pattern doesn't just stop. It continues to cycle!

Now, to your question of where is the 2 inches of liquid.  I have always said that the same exact specific weather that we experience each time through the cycle will not repeat EXACTLY the same.  If it did then the LRC would be perfect in its predictions.  It is almost impossible to be perfect two days out. I know we have raised the bar very high, and you place a lot of pressure on us.  But, overall the LRC is as amazing this year as any other.  We just know more, and you are expecting more out of our forecasts. 

The biggest error I may have made in the 45 day forecast was to assume these storm systems would be bigger and more wide spread.  For us, they have been smaller, but not for areas southeast and east of us.

Gary

Thanks for answering Gary.

"The biggest error I may have made in the 45 day forecast was to assume these storm systems would be bigger and more wide spread."

I agree with that.....someone will get hit hard by this next round of storm systems but not us.....

which is really depressing since I haven't seen a snowstorm bigger than 2.5 inches this year...the rest were 1 inchers...believe it or not we've had 7 one inch storms this winter...lol..I would have rather had it all at once....cause 1 inch melts fast...

the snow we got last night is melting already here!

it might be gone if the sun comes out.....

I acknowledge that you guys predicted the arctic air...and you did very well...none of the other stations were even talking about an arctic outbreak...especially as early as you were...

But the series of 7 storm systems is not really materializing....I do know that this storm that just passed was supposed to be one of the bigger ones...but it just didn't hit us....will it be the same for the next storm systems?

I watched one station that started to copy you, by saying that we would have a series of storm systems come from the pacific..but they thought that most of them would miss us...or be rain...so far I have reason to believe he's right...because so far..one storm has narrowly missed KC...and this next one may be thunderstorms.....instead of thundersnow...lol

Don't get me wrong..I am not supporting that station...because they arew also the ones that said the coldest part of the winter was over in early december!...lol

You guys are the most accurate....but I am wondering if those strong storm systems you spoke of in the 45 day outlook will ever hit us.

I think your outlook overall has been very good though...so far..

But I am really looking forward to a snowstorm where I get a good 6 inches...

what do you think?

Also I am going to bring back my question from last night

Why do snow bands normally set up from northeast to southwest?....basically horizontal....instead of vertical....because if the "bulls eye"  was vertical...the south sections would  get as much as the north sections..if you get what I mean...

that would be cool....

Brent

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Brent,

The series was 4 storm systems, with the possibility of a 5th, 6th, and 7th.  It is only February 1st.  Remember it is through February 20th.  Please be patient.

Gary