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Gary,
I am confused, thought this was suppose to be a stormy period and cold according to LRC and December example. This is a walk in the park, hardly any snow, warm temps and rain? Arctic air coupled with wet storms were supposed to be  the deal?
Going into Feb with 40's onthe 7 day is not good. Not many more winter days possible. Whats up?

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It has been cold. We had two below zero mornings (-4 and -3), snow has been all around us, we had our mini blizzard on Tuesday (55 dropping to 11 degrees during the noon hour), it was 6 degrees yesterday morning, and it is cold and cloudy this morning.  We are in that stormy/cold stretch, but if you look at what happened in December, just about the same thing is happening now.  If we would have been hit by yesterday's snowstorm, then you wouldn't feel this way today.  But, it just barely missed us.  In December we had the four storm systems, storm #4 is coming in early next week.  Then, there was a break and we had three more.  The break is coming after Tuesday's storm, and then we will look for three more storm systems.  I am uncertain if it will be cold enough for snow, but we do average 8 inches of snow between now and then end of the season.  I am expecting at least average.

So, let's just go through the weather pattern in the next two weeks and see where we end up.  St. Louis and Chicago are buried under snow this morning.  It should have been us.

Gary

Good luck Brett. Don't freeze your butt off!
Good luck to you Gary and Stormy.
I hope Phil Doesn't see his shadow. ( not that it really matters)
If there is a dome over kansas city why can't we get a super bowl?
Great job as always. ***** I can't imagine being colder than last year.  17 degrees and cloudy at plunge time a year ago.  I am praying for 40 degrees and light winds.    Brett

Gary,
Thanks for mentioning about Brett's plunge tomorrow. Here's hoping that the sun stays out while they hit the water and leave! Here is a link to his page for the Polar Bear Plunge - www.firstgiving.com/brettanthony2008.

Great job on the forecasting yesterday -- and everyday!

Good Luck Brett!!!!!  ***** Barb, thank you sincerely for mentioning my site.  There is still time to donate before I take the plunge.  Brett 

Good morning everyone.  I didn't get to post yesterday but I wanted to let you know I think you all did a great job with this storm.  You did not want to budge from your 1-4 and you didn't.  The three other channels were calling for 3-5, 4-6 etc.  You got it just fine, not to mention you were discussing it for weeks.  Waiting for the next storm!  We just got a dusting here in the Fort Osage area but my grandma lives in Sweet Springs and they got 5 inches. Pretty neat.

Gary - Great entry.  You do such a good job with your synoptic analysis/drawings.  It makes things much easier to see the features labeled.

"A strong cold front will again move through.  After this Tuesday cold front moves through we are seeing a very good chance of a calmer and warmer period later next week for a few days."

Great minds think alike.  It is amazing how the LRC keeps on rolling and how the surface analysis keeps in parallel.  

I wrote this on the 13th - "The second week of February looks to warm to normal conditions early leading into a more pronounced warm up from the 10th-14th. Expect to see a front on the 14th bringing light precipitation in the area."

Here is the storm for the 14th....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_336.shtml

This is one of the storms that Gary counted as the 4-7 storms.

Gary, I agree with the cold air.  We have had plenty, but I think it will become much more variable now.  Except for the cold air we have now, I don't expect another big plunge for quite awhile.  Yes, we will see a day or two here and there..but more storm related.

The active pattern in my analysis really ends about the 7-9th.  We should then begin to go back to more of a zonal flow.

You can see that here...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_216.shtml

So, the storms we see in the morphing back to the zonal flow before it takes total hold, we will see a few more storms that would fall within the 4-7 before Feb 20th.

Look for the 14th and 18th to round out the rest of the storms this month from a long range perseptive.

For those that want more info...the rest is on my blog.  It was posted Jan 13th [just to eliminate those thinking I may have used model data]


Gary/team, great job.  Enjoy the quiet day to recharge.  The next storm may bring drama as well.

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Scott,

Thanks!  I did get an A+ in my Synoptic Meteorology course at the University of Oklahoma. 

Anyway, after the February 9th time frame you are talking about the flow will amplify again, not over western Canada, but through the Rockies.  So, there won't be a lot of Arctic air for this next stormier stretch (that happened in the last week of December), but there may be enough cold air for some snow.  We will see.  The colder part of the cycle comes back during the first half of March.

Gary

Gary is yesterday's storm tied directly to the December 8th or 15th storm?  I ask because you said the 15th on Wednesday, but what transpired reminded me of the Dec 8th storm with a horrible ice storm in SE Kansas and SW Missouri, which was 54 days back from Jan 31st.  Also, do you really think KC will see any significant snowfall (i.e. 4"+) for the remainder of the winter, because I've lost faith it's going to happen?  Better than 50:50 chance?

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First of all I would put the chance of a 4"+ snowstorm the rest of the way at better than 50/50.  Look how close we were yesterday.

This next storm is the wet one, sort of caught in the "slide by" (yesterday's storm) position.  So, it may be positively tilted which could limit precipitation potential on Tuesday.

Gary

Gary, yes...in a smaller sense, there will be days at a time that will amplify in the zonal flow, but in a general sense, the duration will be more zonal than amplified.  Just like from the 17th of Jan to Feb 9th is more amplified than zonal.

That is how I represent it.  Also, as far as the cold, yes in a general sense I agree about the first half of March.  It matches..but remember - just like the first part of January, and back in October and another month, we will have a warm streak before the cold sets in.  I have this in the first week of March before the cold really sets in.  Similar scenerio as what you describe in the first week of your 45 day forecast for January.

Then like the same 45 day forecast, in the second week..sure..the cold air comes in.

Gary - knowing the cycle..doesn't it kind of take the fun out of it?  What keeps it fun for me is to take this trending down to the surface and project specific days and storm impacts.

Much harder to do, and likely carries some inherant danger of being wrong.  But it does make is much more fun!

LOL

A couple of questions.  I didn't see it answered in my  post  of a couple days ago.
Why does it seem easier to track a hurricane than it does a storm across the continental US?  With a hurricane, they always have several "projected paths" using each of the various models.  Why can't similar paths be drawn for a storm moving across the US so we can see paths based on various models?

Secondly, what is the chance that the Sunday-tuesday storm could be mainly snow? I know you said there is a warm front pushing north.  What if that front doesn't make it all the  way through KC? Would the temps here allow for snow or rain? Does the presence of the warm front mean the difference of 32 or 45 or 40 and 50?
Thirdly, you mentioned in an earlier post that the storms this season have all tracked noth. How does Thursday's storm play into the weather cycle?

Thanks. Just here to learn.

Nastyweather - I will be interested to see Gary's answer.  Because I track surface based events, this is a clear cut answer for me.

Here is what I think, but will defer to Gary's answer....

31-Jan 8-Dec
3-Feb 11-Dec
7-Feb 15-Dec

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Make sure to ask Gary again after 3pm today.  He is at a school talk the rest of the morning and then will get ready for work.  He will have time to answer this p.m.

Jeremy

Dwight--it's not really easier to track a hurricane. The average track error for a 12-hour hurricane forecast is 55 miles (48 nautical miles). When you look at yesterday's storm, the track was probably off by about 55 miles or so. And that is a pretty big miss.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/forecast/errors.shtml

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Overall the forecast was not a big miss yesterday...but that is behind us and Gary addressed this in a blog.

With hurricane tracking it may seem easier because the storms are visible over the ocean sometimes 10-14 days before impacting North America.  With our storms we can sometimes pick them out over the Pacific.  But then the storms interact with the Rockies, depend on Gulf of Mexico moisture, etc.  All factors that are usually determined 24-60 hours before the storm hits.

Jeremy

Well Scott I'm hoping for someone to tell me the Jan 31st storm was tied to the Dec 8th, because that means we're on track for at least 4 more decent storms to move our way.  Of interest in tracking surface data, is that on Dec 6th Olathe received .22" of liquid and wouldn't you know it that 54 days later was Jan 29th.  I do remember it snowing on Tuesday, yep it sure did.  Oh and even weirder Dec 11th was the horrible ice storm in northern Kansas and Missouri.  Wouldn't you know it that we just happen to have a rain in the forecast 54 days later on Feb. 3rd.  Crazy, cray.  What say you Gary?

I've always been a passive, but interested, weather watcher.  A favorite field trip with kids was a tour of the NWS in Pleasant Hill.  I am learning a lot about weather on this blog - more than I thought I ever cared to know.    

So thank you, Gary and team, for providing this blog.  You and you bloggers who know your stuff about weather have taught me a lot.  The discussion about the LRC is interesting to follow. Several months ago I had never heard terms like "positively tilted", or "dry slot", or the latest - "synoptic meteorology".  One never quits learning and now I'm more interested than ever before.

Now, if you could just do something about those storms that avoid southern Lee's Summit and dump the big snow up north or down south instead!    

Linda (mostly lurking)
Lee's Summit

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Linda,

Great to hear from you!  Please post often...we'd love to hear from you!  The highlight of a trip to the NWS is being inside the radar 'dome'.  Weather conditions have to be perfect for this to occur though because you can't be in the 'dome' when the radar is on.

Jeremy

I have a gut feeling that winter is wrapping up for us. I mean winter as in frozen precipitation.

As far as the LRC is concerned, I think we will see some more storms, but with our luck so far, it will be the liquid variety. Sure we may get another couple of inches of snow, but I would be surprised to see more than 4" for the rest of the season. This is the viewpoint of southlander, I don't think we have had more than 6" total so far down here in Greenwood.

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The next 10 days have promise.  But after about Feb. 10-14 the flow changes and temps will be on average...above average.  Keep in mind Gary's winter forecast called for 19" of snow at KCI and above average temperatures for the region.  Both look to be very close to reality when the winter is over.  Of course when everything is all said and done we will look at all parts of the viewing area.

Jeremy

jstonemo, I'm with you on this. I really think by the information out there, that we (south kc) will get mostly rain with any storm that comes our way from Sun thru next week, for the exception of Tues, we might get an inch of snow as temps drop.

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I wouldn't give up on snow yet.  Last year half of the area had snow in April!  But after the first 10-14 days of Feb. the pattern will shift to milder weather.  Which I am looking forward too!

Jeremy

Once March gets here, that is when I am really ready for warm weather, lots of sunshine, and thunderstorms! If I can just get thru Feb, I think I have it made!! I am not wanting snow, Im tired of the flurries and scant amounts of snow we do get, its nothing but a pain! Bring on the warm temps!!!

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I'm with you...I want Spring here ASAP!

Jeremy

It looks like Warrensburg  got a lot more snow than Clinton, I haven't had a chance to measure our snow fall yet.  I will do that soon.  I am going to say about  3 inches or so.  It was our biggest snowfall this season. LOL :P What is the next storm looking like?

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John...thanks for the report!  It turned out you saw snow!  Enjoy...it will likely be melted by Monday.

Jeremy

I am loving the blog this morning!!!! There is a light at the end of this long cold winter tunnel! Bring on the warmer air and lets look forward to some thunder storms! I am sick of the sand and salt everywhere! I love reading "above average temps"!!!!!! Everyone have a great Friday!

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There will be ups and downs after the 10-14...but it does look much milder.

Jeremy

TO EVERYONE ON THE BLOG: My Grandfather had to be taken by ambulance up to the VA at about 1:30 am for immediate surgery,If you are wondering, he broke his leg above an artificial knee replacement.  I would greatly appreciate it if the members would keep my Grandfather, Lewis Snow, in your thoughts and Prayers.
Thank you, John Moon III

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Sorry to hear that John.  We are hoping for the best!

Weather Team

John, we will keep your Grandfather in our prayers! I'm sorry to hear about the accident, you all take care.

Keep in mind that cold air is going to be harder to come by as we add 2 minutes of daylite each day. . . there will be more snow events and an unexpected artic plunge or back door cold front.  The snow that comes at night now will be of more concern due to the sun angle now.  Also, after the snow falls it melts faster this time of the year vs. Dec and Jan. . . we will see 75 miles makes all the difference and 2-3 degrees can be the difference from snow to cold rain a fine line to forcast.  Three degrees . . . not a big deal if it is 83 not 80 but if it it is 34 not 31 big difference.

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After we get thru mid-Feb. it seems like we turn a little corner every year.  Average highs by then are in the low to mid 40s.

Jeremy

KellyAnn...I am just like you. When March hits....I am ready for spring and all my snowman decor comes down on March 1st. I want to open my windows and let my girls outside to play....by March I have had enough of winter. I too feel like the form of precip we will get from now on out is rain....I have given up on a sledding snow for the year. Which is okay cause I got alot last year and I was happy to see those left out last year get some this time around. I too wil pray for Mr. Snow. Poor guy, bet he is in some pain right now. Take care all and have a good weekend.
Monica
Pleasanton KS

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Monica,

Don't lose hope yet for a sledding snow.  Still about 2 months for you to see that...but don't count on it:)

Jeremy

Im giving up the hope this year for a 6-8 inch snowstorm.

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Don't give up all hope...but keep this in mind.  A 6-8" snow would be pretty close to record setting on any winter day.

Jeremy

Monica, it is funny...Last year I lived in St Joe and we did not get much snow at all and now that I am in South KC, it flip flops and this area don't see snow, but St Joe does, LOL...My kids spend part of their time with there dad and he lives near St Joe, the kids are really tired of cold a snow up in that area and they are so ready to get back in the pool, be able to get outside, and hang out with their friends. I am also ready for them to be able to get outside! I agree, we won't see sledding snow til next year, thank god! But I sure bet St Joe will see at least one more decent snow.

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As I mentioned I wouldn't give up on snow chances...just temper the expectations.

Jeremy

Using weatherfreeks link, I re-set the map back to Dec 25, 2002.....another BIG "Dome"...we actually took a Christmas Day drive to get to the snow in Springfield...it had snowed a foot the day before...cars were still sitting on the sides of the road, abandoned, all over the place as we got closer to Springfield...looked like Armageddon! (of course it was Christmas day, and not much traffic, but seeing all the abandoned cars gave an eerie feeling)
If memory serves me correct,I believe that we didn't see any snow at all here in K.C (at least in Olathe) until the mid of Jan that winter. Talk about being starved for snow!
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html?mode=pan&zoom=&center_x=++-93.91&center_y=++38.76&ql=station&var=ssm_depth&dy=2002&dm=12&dd=25&dh=6&snap=1&o9=1&o12=1&o13=1&lbl=m&min_x=-97.658749999991&min_y=35.946667353307&max_x=-90.158749999991&max_y=41.571667353307&coord_x=-93.908749999991&coord_y=38.759167353307&zbox_n=&zbox_s=&zbox_e=&zbox_w=&metric=0&bgvar=dem&width=600&height=450&nw=600&nh=450&type=0&js=1&uc=0

N2mountains said:
"Gary,
I am confused, thought this was suppose to be a stormy period and cold according to LRC and December example. This is a walk in the park, hardly any snow, warm temps and rain? Arctic air coupled with wet storms were supposed to be  the deal?
Going into Feb with 40's onthe 7 day is not good. Not many more winter days possible. Whats up?"

I have the same question on my mind.  I'm in a different area (northern Colorado) but do try to follow what is going here.  I had a lot higher hopes for January than what actually happened.  Many of the mountain areas of Colorado had a very good January for snowfall, and for that I'm thankful.  However, not one of these storms the whole month of January hit our area.  After a some very good storms last October and again in December, it just seems like the pattern is changing and not repeating as expected.  Some of the storms in October and December just dug really deep in the southwestern US and then came up through the great plains, and that just doesn't seem to be happening now.  

There is just that "funkiness" to the weather pattern that started in January, and like last year I am fearful we will get next to nothing (snow) for the rest of the winter.  In our area, we typically get some good snows in March/April but with the weather pattern seemingly losing its steam, I wonder if that will materialize?

Can you re-do the blog layout to more vertical? (not really sure what I'm talking about!)...but I'm having to scan back and forth to read it today...kinda making me dizzy! ;-)

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Hmmm...not sure if it is just your computer or everyone's.  On a couple here it looks normal.

Jeremy

We gain way too much daylight too QUICKLY in the winter because KC is so far south in latitude compared with the Midwest.

Also, the models show very little snow potential or arctic air today. I am not pleased at all! I guess I will have to wait until the middle to end of February when the "colder" part of the pattern returns again.

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Gary can add some insight if you ask him later, but I think the colder part of the pattern would return sometime in March.

Jeremy

Jeremy, I have given up on snow chances because I am so ready for spring! I DON"T WANT ANY SNOW!!! Plus everyone tracks the darn stuff in the house, even if it is just a dusting or an inch. I am just pretty confident I don't have to worry!!!

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I like the way you think:)  Hopefully it turns out to be true!

Jeremy

Jeremy,
About the blog "layout". This has happened only a couple of times in the past....normally it's just fine. I can go to other sites/pages and it is fine also. This blog is the only place I am experiencing it. If it is my computer, any suggestions on how to rectify it?
Thanks for responding.

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Maybe Gary formated the picture different this a.m.  I know we are working on holding pictures on an outside source which will require a learning curve for editing.  That is my only guess.

Jeremy

Even though spring is still weeks away...with groundhog day tomorrow, w'ere on the downhill slide of winter and we can now start thinking abit about spring and my favorite...Thunderstorms. I'm anxious to see how the spring storms and LRC playout this year. I'm ready, especially after just getting back from a week at St Marteen and St Thomas where the daily high's were in the middle 80's. Coming back to chilly KC was a shock but enjoyed the small getaway!!!!! Keep up the GREAT work NBC WeatherTeam!!!

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Welcome back!  My favorite Caribbean island is St. Lucia.  Very lush...and there's an active volcano!  The rain forest hike where I saw a boa constrictor in wild was awesome!  Least favorite island that I've visited is Jamaica(just me though).

Jeremy

The blog layout issue is due to the super long web addresses (URLs) that people inserted into their posts above.

IE7 rectifies this, but Firefox sometimes has a hard time...

--

While I'm posting:  Does the team still feel as though 50" of snow is likely by the end of the season somewhere in the viewing area, like was outlined when Gary mentioned an analogy with the winter of '59-60?

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I'll let Gary follow up with his prediction.  But keep in mind some areas are at or very near 30".  50" may not be likely, but still a possibility.

Jeremy

Here is just a hunch...we will see.  Based on what I have observed this year, it has been pretty wild.  I think as the snows melts away and we move into March, we will begin seeing what these storms look like when convection is introduced.

I will guess once we get beyond the first excitement of the first severe weather setups, over the course of March/April/May- we will have many wishing we were still talking about snow chances and not severe weather chances.

Who knows...I just think based on where we are in relation to the pattern we have seens, I expect a great deal of warm sector convection and some potential triple points to watch coming up.  And this should even trump the very strong fronto and temp gradients we have seen in these fronts.  These are enough by themselves!

Imagine this last week with the 50 degree temp gradient and 50+ MPH gusts that were spawned..just from a frontal passage.  Throw in 50-60 degree dewpoints and 2500+ MCAPE with that.  Holy cow!

Just something to think about.

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I hope you are wrong:)

Jeremy

Scott - when is the ice storm returning in this round of the cycle?

How about the big december snowstorm.

Ethalo - it's not just you! My screen is doing the same thing and driving me crazy as well.

Brett - Enjoy your jump tomorrow

We ended up with 3 inches at my house (between Adrian and Ballard). Looking out of my classroom, the snow looks pretty, but I sure wish we had more! Selfish, I know, but I do love snow.

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Thanks for the snow report!  Feel free to send in reports the day of and we will try to add your town to our list!

Jeremy

Scott
I am curious, what could we expect from the setup you are mentioning? I am still learning what everything means.
Thanks

ethalo re: BLOG LAYOUT:  I think the reason it has expanded so far horizontally this morning is actually your fault :) I believe it has to do with the long link that you put in - it caused it to stretch more. I've seen this in the past, and it seems to happen everytime someone posts a long link.

reafamily - good question

It is hard to break it fully down, but generally when you have very strong features such as huge cold fronts or other atmospheric dynamics, you would expect to see a signficant impact to the surface.  Be it strong linear thunderstorms or other strong features.

Right now, it is wayyyy to early to say what will happen, but based on what type of events we have seen this winter, it does seem plausible that the same strong features that provided us strong temp swings or snow in the winter would manifest in more severe type set ups in Spring/Summer.

In that same thought - but unrelated - The SPC has put out more details on the upcoming event in OKC.  It was a great event last year.  I learned a great deal.  This years agenda looks very good to me.  Spotting, radar and sat discussions, simulation and more.  I am going this year as well.  It will be a hoot.

For those of you with HTML experience, viewing the source of this page may help answer some of the formatting questions...

"I'm ready, especially after just getting back from a week at St Marteen and St Thomas where the daily high's were in the middle 80's. Coming back to chilly KC was a shock but enjoyed the small getaway!!!!!"

I think 30s for highs is fairly mild. Anything above 80F starts to get to hot for me!

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OP,

You would love to live where I use to...Marquette, MI!

Jeremy

I don't know that it is fair to go that far Jeremy.  Love Marquette!  Ha ha, I actually miss it. . Only in spurts and not this time of year. But when your 7 snow is fun.  I forgot how long ago you were there but in Montmorency County (below the bridge) it never did get much above 80* as long as I can remember. Then in the last 10 years it has gotten warmer.  People actually own air conditioners up there now!

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When I lived there very few had air conditioners.  There was a stretch in the summer of 2001 that was hot in the U.P.  Lots of 90 degree days.  There was a small lake outside of Marquette that people would swim in a all hours to cool down.  It was crazy to see the shore packed with people when it was dark out! 

Jeremy

 Elaine..
re:layout
Actually it was already like this when I logged on. And if the long links are the cause, then I guess it would be due to WeatherFreak, as he had the first one, whcih I in turn went to, then posted another link for same thing, but different map. Guess we shouldn't do that anymore.
Sorry everybody :(  
(just goes to show how much I don't know about these computers, even after 5 yrs)

Man, I looked up that wxcaster.com and the 102nd to 120th hour looks like a good snow storm for us.  Hope this holds up.

I don't see it there KSuds. Can you give me a link to that?

GFS looks good for snow on Tuesday!

"After this Tuesday cold front moves through we are seeing a very good chance of a calmer and warmer period later next week for a few days."

so much for the stormy harsh winter weather pattern...  -_-
sorry if I came off as rude..lol

the snow is gone here.

my computer is also making it so that I have to scroll across the page to read all of the blogs.

its 40 degrees!

bye bye snow...

until our next 1 incher.

My puter screen is normal, who knows whats going on. From what I see on Tues, it will be all rain except maybe a mix at the end, but it doesn't look like a big deal to me. Maybe someone else can give us their take on it.

Scott,

If Evan is there with StormLab , tell him Hi,and that you want to buy SL 4.0. :)

Well for people waiting for March... be careful what you wish for, March is sometimes like it's "own one month season":)

You guys do a great job.  Are you thinking now that we are NOT on track to have a winter like 1959?  Or is it still too early to tell?

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We will know sometime soon.  St. Louis and Chicago just got one, maybe our turn is in a week or two. 

It is something you have to look back on.

Gary

I hope we get more snow this winter...but nI also cant wait till severe weather season!!  :)

CentralOP2:
        Wife and I have been to St. John's 4 times.  BEAUTIFUL location!  We took a speed boat trip and went to ST. Thomas.  A lifelong buddy from Clinton has a restaurant in ST. John's called WOODY'S SEAFOOD.  Great little place.  I am darn jealous of ya right now!!!  Jim in Clinton.

Gary, I sure hope that you are right about us getting a lot of snow in the next couple of weeks. Do you think it will rain, snow, or mix on Tuesday?

Hi there, this is my first time to blog.  I have been reading the blog for several months now and and find it very informative in forcasting what is going to happen.  Gary, you hit the nail on the head when you said 1-4 or at least in Sedalia.  We ended up with about 2 inches on the ground last night.  It was a big difference in the 5-8 that the NWS forcasted, but I am not complaining.  I am hoping we have seem the worst of the winter precip.  I don't mind the cold, I just don't care for the snow and ice.  Bring on Spring!!!!  

New blog soon?
(Have Jeremy, Brett, Gary, and Elvis left the building?) lol
Just teasing.I know you guys are busy..and must be
VERY tired after the wild ride yesterday and the night
before! Gary's ready to rest up I'm sure, and ready
to have a good weekend with Stormy and Breezy!
(new blog will probably remedy the horizontal problem
that Freak and I caused!)  :):)

Can we have the 1-4 inch forecast now for Tues?  MOS is showing about .15 in of QPF with temps suitable after the surface low passes.

LOL

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I just saw you already did it.

Gary

It is kinda funny in looking at the MOS, the storm for Tues looks exactly like the MOS did for yesterdays.  Maybe a trace to 2 inches would work better.

LOL..this is all off the 12Z data.  I know the 18Z is coming out now.

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Scott,

How about 1 to 4 inches? LOL

Gary

Before I go to work... good luck with the polar plunge Brett!!!!!!!!

Ok, time for a new blog!
You guys have snow lovers really depressed. Sounds like winter is over and thunderstorms are on the horizon already.
Remember the Spring last year that really sucked and everything bloomed and froze to death. Please look at your calendar and realize it is only Feb. 1 and yes the LRC is a tool, but the control of things lies in the hands of someone more powerful than it.
SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW

Why does some think it will snow Tues? It is going to be all rain up to the very end when it might mix with a little snow...just watch and see!!

the 18z looks good for snow!

subby64735,
I was quoting frigate and his trip to the Carribean.

This part of the pattern looks very mild. I see little evidence of any arctic air. We will see some cold fronts but not much arctic air because of the storm parade coming in off the Pacific. Most of Canada stays cold with this setup as the storm track stays further south.

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There is a lot of Arctic air up there, but you are right, I don't see any signs of it coming down either.

Gary

I'll be out there getting wet at the polar plunge at Longview tomorrow as well!  It is my first time plunging in the cold waters.  I really hope we get to see sunshine and 40!  

kellyann, you are prabably right.  I was just having some fun with Gary above.  Likely some rain, but not much really, and a trace of snow on the backside.

I love these storms, but we are just in the wrong place.  Sliding on by...

Might be more fun in Spring.

I am guessing the arctic air will come down at least one more time?  

What happened to the days when the arctic air would come down and keep us cold for weeks?

Too soon to tell..we will see.  Not going to think much about it, Kellyann

Gary & team,

I know I posted this in another previous blog entry but did not see a reply. What are your thoughts on the report that we are going to be going in a dorment sunspot cycle anywhere from 3 to 10 years from now? Do you think this will have any impact on our climate at all or do you guys think it's going to even happen at all?

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I have no idea how it may impact our climate.  I am guessing it will be minor, but I just don't know for sure.

Gary

new blog is up