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I don't see  many storm systems on the 7 day.....

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How many do you want?  There's one on Sunday, Tuesday, and we may add snow to Thursday.  There can't be a storm everyday:)

Jeremy

if we do have thunderstorms on sunday, do you think there will be any during the night? Nighttime thunderstorms help me sleep like a baby. What do you think we will have in terms of spring thunderstorms? And what is the biggest snow storm left, how much snow will it make? If it makes less than 4 or 5", im not happy about.

hope you can anwser my questions, Byan.

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A few isolated thunderstorms are possible within the rain area on Sunday.

We still have storms ahead, but no way to predict at this point if there will be a 4-5" snow...sorry:)

Jeremy

yeah true...but that was what I was expecting I guess..

since we are in the "harsh winter weather" part?....

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Look at the last half of January...well below average temps...just like Gary said when he issued the Arctic Air Watch.

Jeremy

Do you remember last year all the storms we had Jan thru may? If you think that will happen again I would like to know? Do you have a forecast for May 15th?

  Byan

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I remember last Spring being pretty quiet severe weather-wise.  Gary will have a Spring forecast coming up...not sure quite when...but hopefully that helps with the May 15 prediction.

Jeremy

"Look at the last half of January...well below average temps...just like Gary said when he issued the Arctic Air Watch.

Jeremy"

yes we had very cold temperatures.....but for some reason I was expecting some storm systems also......and it was dry the whole time the arctic air was here...thats how it sems to go in missouri...when there is moisture around...its too warm for snow...and when its cold enough for snow...theres no moisture there....

plus he did say that there would be widespread snowstorms....

so far they have been isolated..

I hope that changes.

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There were storms, maybe they didn't produce what you had hoped, but the storms have happened.  Let's move on Brent...and talk about what's ahead this weekend.

Jeremy

I'm not really a fan of rain in the winter....

so I am not looking forward to this weekend.

***************

About the only good thing is it cleans the salt off the roads.  Some northern areas may see a mix or snow on Sunday.  Not southern areas though.

Jeremy

the blog is so empty on weekends...lol....

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There's actually 9 people in here right now...I can see who is online at anytime.  Doesn't mean they are sitting at their computer though.

Jeremy

With the exception of the hot, dry, boring days of summer, I can usually find enough in each season to keep me interested.  After too many near misses this winter, I am officially ready for the spring severe weather season (my personal favorite).  Let's get a good rain to clean the salt off the roads and some warm days to ease my wallet.  That last gas bill was a killer. ********* Since I have an unsold home in WI I have double the bills! Even with the heat very low in WI the bill back there combined with the one here was unreal! Jeremy

So Jeremy, NWS has Ravenwood w/a 60% chance of sleet/snow tomorrow...I was really hoping there might be enough instability for a few claps of thunder.  What do you think? *********** Not out of the question...but you may be a bit far north. I'm thinking you will see some snow Sunday. Maybe enough to accumulate a bit before temps move into the mid 30s. Jeremy

I do hope it rains tomorrow to clean the roads off a little.  And I'm more than ready for spring and some warmer temperatures.  I'm so tired of being cold! *********** Enjoy Monday! Then it is back down for a few days. Jeremy

Brent
Jeremy's right... even tho we're here doesn't mean we're glued to the computer screen.  My browser never leaves the blog, even when computer's rebooted the first thing that's opened is this blog.


Have a great day everyone, we're going to find something to do outside while its nice

Stacy n the gang ************ Stacy, You spell your name like my sister...no 'e'. She use to get really mad when people spelled it 'ey':) Anyways, enjoy the nice day! Jeremy

To the last post, Just wanted to say thanks to Jeff sharing his experience with the LRC.;)   Now I look forward to more precip. *************** Jeff works very hard behind the scenes. His knowledge is tremendous...maybe because he went to the University of Wisconsin like me;) Jeremy

I am new to this blog, heck, I am even new to blogging period.  I want to say that I enjoy this blog it helps curb my addiction to the weather.   I have to say that I am looking forward to a few nice days ahead, temperature wise, I don't mind the rain.  Here in Sedalia this latest system looks to be a rain event, am I right?  I really don't want anymore snow or ice.   ************* This looks to be rain for Sedalia. Thanks for joining the blog! We love to hear from the eastern part of our area. Keep us updated with reports! Jeremy

Hi Jeremy,
Is there a chance of snow on Thursday?  I have yet to see the weekend show...  I am not an early morning person. :)  

Phil always see his shadow.. Probably due to all the camera lights. :)

I am ready for spring!  I enjoy tracking the thunderstorms as long as long as no lives or property are impacted.

Kristi **************** Kristi, Right now it looks like flurries...so I'm leaving the chance out at the moment. I'll re-examine that tomorrow. Jeremy

I overslept and missed the 8-9am newscast, of course, we were up playing Wii until 1am.

Snow Dance!! ************ Good luck with the snow dance! Jeremy

This is the NOAA Hazards Forcast issued a 0600 hrs.  Question what if the cooler; I will not say cold air hangs tough and the 36 highway area and north stay in the 31-33 degree range . . . My rationale is that the 31 Jan storm dropped south 70 miles whats to say that the models have over corrected the bias for tracking off to the north winter season?

If the below instability exists we have .50 to .75 moisture out there; it will be there if it is 31-33 or 38-41 thoughts?

This then cools Tuesday down for an all snow event recurring like 22 December and then followed by the dusting on the 25th.......food for thought.  



ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
600 AM CST SAT FEB 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36...TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SLEET OR SNOW. SOME VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL HAVE SPREAD AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS
INTERSTATE 70. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON WILL REQUIRE SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS TO COME TOGETHER...SO PERSONS ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED
TO LATER OUTLOOKS.

PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE BACK TO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
ON TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

*************** Tomorrow is very intersting. Thunderstorms and snow across the viewing area. It is a situation where 1-2 degrees will be very key! I think some snow will accumulate near the Iowa border...but how far south will this extend? St. Joe could see a mix/snow for a time, but I don't think all the precip. would fall as snow. Jeremy

I am hoping sometime this month we get a big snowstorm....What do you think the possabilities of that happening are?? ************** Better than me answering this question directly:) Jeremy

Jeremy,

Driving north and east of St. Joe around 4:30 pm tomorrow and you've been saying some interesting things about the weather up there about that time.  Has that picture come into clearer focus yet?

Linda in Lee's Summit *********** Linda, The farther north you travel the better chance of the precip. changing to a mix or snow. Some snow accum. is possible especially the northern tier or two of counties. I'll try to talk possible accums. today at 5pm. The 18Z stuff will all be in by then. Jeremy

 
lezakEF5 said:
I am hoping sometime this month we get a big snowstorm....What do you think the possabilities of that happening are?? ************** Better than me answering this question directly:) Jeremy

Jeremy-- that was hilarious!! LOL!

Spring isn't too far away...

yep Scott looks like a wet early spring at least..

Neiter is SEVERE WEATHER SEASON Scott. *************** Hopefully it holds off until after Feb. 28. Jeremy

Thunderstorms are my very most favorite thing!  Fingers crossed for a nice one (not severe, though!) tomorrow!  Bring on spring!  I'm absolutely ready for it!

yes 19 inches was the pre season pick, BUT he also said something abuot 50 inches in the veiwing area?

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He said there was a chance in far northern areas.  Certainly possible since some areas are at 30" this season.  Let's see what happens.

Jeremy

dont mind me still sad about the one that got away.

No spring yet. . . we have had 28.1 in of snow at my home officially about 19 in....I would really like to get to 50 inches . . . I have been saying that up here we will get a 10-14 incher . . .  and still expect it the cold air will circulate back west in the polar regions and crash down again. . . I think that for the next active period of the cycle in mid March on to April fools day [if I did my math correct] we will have a white St Patrick Day [17 March] and a White Easter on 23 March....

Tomarrow is the 22 Dec storm if I am correct in the LRC . . . then a calm period with rollercoaster temps an Alberta Clipper or two. . . 50 inches can be reached easily in St Joseph with 4-5 events in the next 45 days not counting APRIL SNOW as long as we get that 10-14 incher. . . . Ted

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Ted,

Tomorrow looks like .25-.5" of rain for some.  The mix/snow looks like it may hang near the Iowa border.  You may be a little far south for the snow. 

Jeremy

You got to keep local climatoligy and climalogical trends in mind here as well... at least through the past 4 to 4 years our snow season usually wraps up by late January and our thunderstorm season begins in mid February. GFS is painting a possible severe weather outbreak around mid-February right now.

***************

Certainly anytime we get a good push of warm air, a front/low, and have moisture in place it may be a recipe for severe weather.  Keep in mind on Sunday we will be north of a warm front by a little bit.  Temps will be in the 30s and 40s across the area.

Jeremy

I want a big snowstorm

**************

I think that's the first time I've heard you say that:)

Jeremy

Jeremy - one big thing I learned last year at the SPC that I found very interesting, was how many early spring/late winter storms erupt with very little convection.  For whatever reason, as we both know there is a unique mix that goes into severe storms, but early in the season - CAPE values can be virtually nil.  In this case, I think we will need atleast a CAPE value of 500, which still looks to our south and east.

That said, what must be there is a strong upper wind profile.  Looking at the timeframe at hand, it looks like we may be very near some very strong upper level winds, and if I am reading right...we may be near the front left quadrant of the 110+kt jet streak.  

I am seeing some decent veering with height lending itself to very good helicity values – 200/300m2.

All in all, I think it could be fun to watch, but any real potential of sever weather should be to our east or southeast – unless things change a bit.  Which is possible.

It just leaves us with another…pffffft storm.  LOL

***************

Remember the tornado that touched down in Johnson County, MO last spring?  I think near Holden.  Low topped supercell as you mentioned.

Jeremy

I watched the new morning show this morning & enjoyed the weather part more than normal.  In all of the newscasts the weather seems so hurried that everyone is talking so fast & showing maps so fast!!  This morning it seemed more relaxed & casual.  I was able to enjoy watching it & not have to try & remember a ton of info in 3 minutes.

******************

There is less news on weekend mornings...which means more weather time!  Thanks for watching and make sure to tell your friends and family to tune in.

Jeremy

For January's totals, the reality is January was warmer than average and below average snow and rainfall totals, despite the advertised predictions of major arctic fronts towards the end of the month.  In plain terms, it was a warmer and drier January than average (unless you lived north of KCI).  

*************

GaryB,

There were major arctic fronts the second half of January.  I'd say dropping from 61 to 11(during mid afternoon) is pretty significant.  Also, Gary Lezak never said January would end up below average, just that arctic air would arrive during the second half of the month.  Maybe you need to revisit his winter forecast, he had above average temperatures this winter...likely how it will end up.

Jeremy

Just got back from plunging in Longview Lake.  Not so bad!  Thanks for the wonderful weather outside.  Some freezing toes after was about the worst part, but my students raising over $200 to see me do it was worth it!  Enjoy the weather outside today!  Didn't see Brett, but heard his name called looking for him several times.  Did he dress up?  

****************

I think he dressed up...watch the 5 & 10pm news...we should have video.  I've never done the polar plunge, but I have been swimming in Lake Superior which is pretty close!

Jeremy

GaryB, yes it was warmer.  .6 of a degree.  The average low was below normal.  All said, this would fall into an average category.  Rainfall was near normal, but yes..for KMCI, a bit below. Basically, one storm off normal.  

Considering the entire viewing area, I would contend it was normal as a whole, and minus the first few days of the month, it was below average temps as a whole.

If you average the entire winter to date, it is still below normal temps and above normal precipitation.  We still have another month, and think that Feb's temps will bring the entire Winter to about average.  I also think that Feb will bring enough precip to keep the entire winter above average for precip.

****************

Tuesday is trying to look more interesting!

Jeremy

"I think that's the first time I've heard you say that:)

Jeremy"


oddly enough it is....
you might be hearing it a lot over the next two weeks though..lol

40% snow! 40% snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

how much!!!?


Shun the upper 50's........shun them.......

**************

The 50s are a long way off, let's see how the early part of this week plays out.  If we did get snow on Tuesday and depending on how much the temps probably wouldn't be that warm. 

Jeremy

OMG! Is that really possible? Snow on March 17th? Why does the April storm have to be snow? I'm with Barbara, bring some thunderstorms around. However, please let us not cut short severe weather season. SInce I am getting the Big D next week I am saving up my money for at least one good chase and it takes severeal storms and the right days off from the hospital for me to get my turn to go. Also, I am so tired of shivering.
My dad says the Phoenix people are smiling because 63 degrees and the possibility of rain means locals will be wearing jackets and sweaters. Out of towners will be using the hotel pools! If one of my teams had been going to the Superbowl this year and I hadn't had other things come up, I wanted to go visit my folks in Surprise and go to some of the pre-game activities this past week, then watch The Game for free at their house. Next SuperBowl in Glendale we can all go and stay at their place :)

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What's up with March 17?  I think this is the active part of the cycle...but did I mention March 17?

Jeremy

hey jeremy, not trying to second guess, as i said in the second post just disgruntled. if those areas get 50 inches that means we are also in the firing line  for more snow. i am hoping for that, more chances.

****************

Your next chance is Tuesday.  The 18Z looked better...but it was a little strange.  Hopefully the next 3 runs show a solid trend.  I can't discard the NAM since it performed well this last storm.

Jeremy

" If we did get snow on Tuesday and depending on how much the temps probably wouldn't be that warm.  

Jeremy'

thats what they said about the areas to the southeast...and we were 40 yesterday...the snow was gone by 3 pm...and then today it was 47!

the snow didn't hinder the temps at all it seems...

now if we got a foot of snow yeah...then it would keep temps down..but 1 inch sure didn't...I don't know if warrensburg's snow melted yet...

Screw it!!...Im ready for spring and severe weather...It is much more fun to watch the weather casts on tv during severe weather season...:)....That was pretty funny though Jeremy :)

Hoping for no freeze in April though...It ruined mushroom season last year!!

****************

I think Gary may be able to give you an idea soon.  To me the setup isn't the same and I think the colder part of the pattern occurs in March.

Jeremy

No Jeremy, stjoe lawyer said: . I think that for the next active period of the cycle in mid March on to April fools day [if I did my math correct] we will have a white St Patrick Day [17 March] and a White Easter on 23 March....

Tomarrow is the 22 Dec storm if I am correct in the LRC . . . then a calm period with rollercoaster temps an Alberta Clipper or two. . . 50 inches can be reached easily in St Joseph with 4-5 events in the next 45 days not counting APRIL SNOW as long as we get that 10-14 incher. . . . Ted

Let's just get some 60's going and call it good.

**************

Still some active weather ahead.  Tomorrow may bring some thunderstorms...that would sound great!

Jeremy

3 days in the 50's showing up in the 7-day forecast the first week in february, AWESOME! I think we gain about 30 mins. of daylight this month as well, ahhhhh.......

*************

Let's hope the 50s stay in the forecast:)

Jeremy

The 50s will hold.  They will stay in the forecast.  It fits a warm trend that has been present in the cycle since early September.

Don't get to use to it though...more cold air again the last week of Feb.

Or so I think based on..well..you know.

LOL

*****************

Sometimes the back door cold fronts prevent the big warm-ups.  One day next weekend may be in the 60s if the front stays away.

Jeremy

I went back and was looking over the blog from December and wondered if there is any similarities between the Dec 8 and Dec 10 ice storms to tomorrow chance of precipitation and what we had couple days ago. After reading, the Dec. 8 storms hit southern areas more just like Thursdays storm. It made me wonder if tomorrow has any comparison to Dec 10/11 ice storm that hit us up north?  I don't know where to go to look at maps unless they are posted on the blog here, so I can't make the comparison myself. I've heard alot of speculation about tomorrow and wonder how warm will we get, I'd rather not have to deal with ice again.

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Gary went over this either in the blog or comments section in the past fews days.  The December 10-12 setup I think is occurring over the next few days.  Good news for tomorrow the ice does not look to happen.  There may be a mix or a little snow north.  But I think with surface temps in the 30s we should avoid huge problems near the Iowa border. 

Jeremy

We will see....I think based on the trend - it should verify.  I cannot speak to any upper air potential, as that would be more down the lines of LRC.  LOL

Oh, I crack me up.  LOL

I like snow but I cant wait until spring, thunderstorms! Maybe we will get a round of tstorms tommorrow? Jeremy, What is the timeframe for the thunderstorms to happen tommorrow?

****************

If we see t-storms probably 4-10pm.  Somewhere in that time frame is when the rain should arrive...a few embedded t-storms are possible.  A cold rain though!

Jeremy

"Let's hope the 50s stay in the forecast:)

Jeremy"

um lets not.. :)

....so the ice storm we had in december...is not coming back as a giant snowstorm...but as a rainstorm?.....how utterly depressing.

if theres on thing worse than ice...its rain!
lol just kididng... <_<

Brent, you are crazily in love with snow.

50's, 60's, rain, thunderstorms, its like heaven! I'm thinking little to nothing in the way of accumulating snow this month!

"Brent, you are crazily in love with snow."

true true.....

but I am tired of all the spring lovers coming on here and cheering...its quite depressing really...lol

Hip hip hooray, hip hip hooray, yes, we shall be heard, "GIVE ME LIBERTY OR GIVE ME SPRING"

"Brent, you are crazily in love with snow."

true true.....

but I am tired of all the spring lovers coming on here and cheering...its quite depressing really...lol

New blog soon?

************

Probably just a quick update after I see the GFS.  Still looks like a cold rain tomorrow in spots.

Jeremy

yeah, I like snow too Brent but it isnt the end of the world if it doesnt snow. I cant wait for spring time and some Thuderstorms!

where do you live PSC?

I live in Parkville.

Has anyone noticed what a beautiful evening we have outside? Jeremy, what's the timing on the rain tommorrow? Just washed the cars today, and hoping the rain is later in the day while we're in watching the superbowl!

**************

Rain looks to be late in the day.  Probably after 3 or 4pm.

Jeremy

New blog tonight?

************

I'll try to give a quick update.

Jeremy