Watch NBC Action News Sunday Night at 10pm and also beginning at 5am Monday morning for the latest on the chance of snow on Tuesday.
What a wild day across the region! I hope no one slept thru this, days like today are very rare! Here are some of the highlights.
KCI: Thunderstorm, rain, snow, dense fog. Total snow: 0.2"
Trenton, MO: 2.5" Snow
Clinton, MO: Dime Size Hail
Whiteman Air Force Base: Nickel Size Hail
The active weather fired up north of a warm front today. The temperature contrast was unbelievable from north to south. Kansas City was 36 today, while Tulsa, OK was 73, and Dallas, TX recorded a high of 81! The warm front lifts north of the area on Monday and I expect the metro to be in the 65 degree area. The warm front should make it to around the north side of Kansas City. Areas like St. Joe and points north will likely stay in the 40s, with 70s to the south.
Dense Fog Advisory in effect tonight into Monday morning.
For this evening and tonight...areas of dense fog have developed across the region and will linger into early Monday. Visibilities have been reduced to a quarter mile of less in spots. Since temperatures are above freezing I'm not expecting freezing fog at this time as temperatures should linger in the neighborhood of 32-36 overnight. Please be careful traveling around the region late tonight!
Heading into the early part of this week the big question is what will happen on Tuesday. The NAM and GFS are on somewhat opposite ends of the spectrum. The NAM pushes the cold front thru Kansas City and keeps the vort max slanted forward...or positively tilted. This would keep the surface low to our south and give the southeast part of the viewing area the best chance of seeing rain/snow. The GFS on the other hand has a well developed vort that pushes a band of snow through much of the viewing area on Tuesday. On the GFS scenario a rain/snow mix to snow would be possible in some areas with all snow the farther north one travels. The GFS has accumulating snow for the region.
Here is the update...
The 00Z trended towards the NAM and moved the precip. area farther to the northwest. However, so did the GFS. What does this mean. If the GFS is correct there would be a rain/snow mix or maybe even some freezing rain in spots on Tuesday afternoon. Then change to snow at some point. The GFS track would favor accumulating snow for northern areas that have been hit pretty hard this winter. Southeast areas would see rain, a mix, and then a little snow. Both the GFS and NAM runs give KC a varying amount of snow. Both models are still pretty far apart, but both are trending for more of a storm for the metro and many other locations. Here is the difference right now. Below is the 00Z GFS for Tuesday afternoon. The freezing line is a little north of Kansas City.
Now this is the NAM at the same time. Notice how much farther southeast the storm is located. Time will tell and likely a combination of the two will be reality. Right now I would lean a little more in the GFS direction.
Gary will have the latest on Monday morning! Rest up...the next couple of days look fun!
Thank you again to everyone who sent in pictures, storm reports, and posted comments today! We have the best bloggers any weather team could ask for!
Jeremy