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what kind of snow are we lookng at gary. how sure are of this any chance of a winter storm warning?

what kind of snow are we lookng at gary. how sure are of this any chance of a winter storm warning?

Winter Storm Watch here in St. Joseph for Tuesday and Tuesday night.  NWS calling for 4 to 8 inches of snow for us here.  I will be interested to see Gary's maps and look forward to his discussion.  Does this storm fit the several day long ice storm from December?

.75 inches of snow and ice yesterday brings the snow total to 29.5 inches for me.  Can I break 40 inches with tomorrow's storm?

hmmmmm,  very interested in what your update holds Gary.  Im not getting excited about NWS watches, I know how those work in the winter, I will get excited when "you guys" call for good one, please tell me this will last into Tuesday night, so I can stay up and watch it, my vacation starts Wednesday.  I had to take one during the active part of the LRC, if only we could get some cold air in here!  I will check in at work, have a great morning Gary, Brett, Jeremy-  Bnoble

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Brett,

I need one or two more model runs to pin this down.  It will likely snow and significant amounts, but we are on the edge again.

Gary

Gary:

Good foggy/Sherlock Holmes morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at 38 degrees with of course a thick fog!!!!

A couple of gerneral musings this morning:

1. What a morning yesterday was in SW Douglas County-unfortuantely, not much time to go into details, but drove out to Lone Star Lake with thunder, lightening, sleet, snow, and rain all at the same time-I was going nuts and was just laughing the whole way out there-awesome stuff indeed!!!

2. The warm front has passed through Lawrence-we are rising at a good clip and our winds have turned to the south

3. The cold front has entered the far tip of NW Kansas-this particular feature is going to be interesting to watch today-how fast does it actually move and how much of an affect does it have on the developing storm out west.

4. Well, here we go again-the Topeka-Kansas City corridor once again looks to be on the fence and we could go either way-today is going to drive a snow lover nuts as each model run will have different shifts in the track and thus different solutions-it appears the Euro is taking the surface low about 50 miles further north than the GFS but for sure both models are in agreement that there is going to be a winter storm some where from say Omaha to Joplin, Missouri. I hope this makes sense!!

5. I think it amazing that since Friday night, the GFS and Euro have been showing that ULL digging further SW into California before it comes out-on Thursday and Friday both had it diving into New Mexico and then comming out-now, it is looking more and more like that ULL of 12-10 that sat out in California-this one is not closed off like that one was but they are both going to wind up in similar positions-just amazing!!! I may be all wet here with this, but that is what I think I see LOL!!!!

Well, let the fun begin-I am always nervous about a decent snow when we are dependent on the cold air to arrive and then the precip-they work out but man, on many occasions they just don't time out right-March of 1989 is a great example of this and one that will always stick in my mind. Whatever the case, we have a wet storm approaching just as we did on 12-9 and we have a similar set up-in my humble hobbyist mind, the LRC nailed this-just awesome!!!!

Have a great day and again, another fun storm to track!!!! Oh, I sent you an email late Friday night-if you have insomnia any time this week, that email will be the cure LOL!!!! Good times and nervous stomachs over the next 24 hours!!!!

Bill where is my driveway in foggy Lawrence

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Bill,

Yes, it is going to drive us snow lovers crazy.  Let's see how it trends.  The models started picking up on this Saturday, and the trend has continued.  Now it seems likely that we will have a major storm Tuesday through Tuesday night, and it is looking wetter and wetter with each run.  This  is storm #4 in the series, as pegged by the LRC.

Gary

Gary said:  "This  is storm #4 in the series, as pegged by the LRC."

Which storm from December is this one coming up tomorrow night?

Do you still think that yesterday's sleet was analagous to the major ice storm from around December 11th?

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Notes,

Yes, and there is no doubt in my mind that this is the "ice storm" storm that happened in Decmeber.  All four storm systems did repeat.  Most of them have not been as significant as the December version, but this one has potential to be bigger.  But, where will the bullseye be?

Gary

Gary,

I hope it swings farther south into Liberty.  We need a good 4-8 snow!

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It may.  By tonight we should be able to have a good idea of where this is tracking.

Gary

The storm needs to shift south and east!!

Platte City is right there!!!  It only needs to shift about 1mm!  C'mon 1 footer!!!

How much snow would we get out of the storm if it it didnt move south? What if it it did? The fog here is so thick, I can't see my neighbor's house. I can see the fog particles of moister. Tell the snow to shift more south. The north has had it's fare share of snow this year.

 Byan

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Byan,

This storm will likely produce 10 inches of snow, possibly more, but most likely up north of Kansas City.  We will have our first snowfall forecast on the air tonight.

Gary

We got 0.53" of rain yesterday!

I think every one should hope that the storm move s farther north! That way maybe it will  go south. Reverse phsycology! lol. Once again the LRC comes thru again. Amazing! After the last storm could you give us comparisions on the storms with dates and amounts. I think it would be very interesting to see. Thanks for all the hard work team. Have a great day!

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I may go over this today, or later this week.  The new data comes out soon.

Gary

This will be like the others a miss or it will go poof or our mysterious friend mr. dryslot

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Try to think more positively!

Gary

When will the next storm after Tuesday come?

Byan

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You are thinking way too far ahead, but there is a smaller system due in around Thursday.

Gary

How do you convert moisture to snowfall. Like 1.00" to snow.

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1" of rain is equivalent to 10 inches of snow, in most situations.  If it is very cold and dry it could be equivalent to 20 inches of snow, and if it is 34 degrees and moist it would most likely be 5 or 8 inches to 1 inch.

Gary

How much snow would come out of 1.00" if the tempature was -20?

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If the temperature was 20 degrees below zero there would be no way that enough moisture would be available for 1 inch liquid equivalent.  But, I have seen Boulder, CO to be around -5 degrees and they had 30 inches of snow from one storm at that temperature.  The ratio probably was around 30 to 1.

Gary

Gary:

Quick observations/check in (yea, I'm hooked once again!!!! Maybe another weather day for the students?? LOL)

The fog is lifting here in SW Lawrence and our temps. have shot up to 45-we have risen almost 10 degrees in an hour and a half-oposite direction of what I like this time of year, but cool none the less!!!

I also noticed on the 13Z surface observations that the cold front is through Colby, Kansas and that Goodland is already at 21 degrees-at least the cold air is in Kansas and still not in Montana!!! LOL

Well, here we go again-that is all I can say!!! In the end though the truly amazing thing is how this has cycled-no, I can argue my points in a scientific/meteorlogical way but I swear my little hobbyist mind sees it and I think it is truly amazing-I mean look at how similar this ULL (at least I think it is) is now compared to the one on 12-10-they are both diving into almost the same location. Really awesome stuff!!!

Have a great day-I'm sure I will be posting incessitantly today as again, I am hooked!!! Man, I really hope we are not sitting here Wednesday morning discussing how we have been missesd by two major snow events in 5 days w/in 150 miles of either side of us!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Exactly! This is that storm and we are in that part of the cycle.  The ones who can't see this will see it sometime in the future, because it is real.  It is not a coincidence.  We will keep working on the LRC and every year we learn more.  This one is either more obvious than ever before, but more likely we are in an exciting pattern and it is easier to show the bigger features that occur much more often, and we know so much more.

And, the warm front is jumping.  I would not be surprised for a run at 70 degrees today.

Gary

Here we go again.........................
When will the NWS issue a winter storm warning? did they maybe learn a lesson from last week? Will the anticipation of being disappointed again come true for snow lovers just south of the infamous snow line that seems to be just north of KCI hold true again? The LRC seems to be repeating along with the same frustrations.
BRING ON SPRING IF THIS IS WHAT SOUTH KC WILL CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM.

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You are so funny. Maybe, just maybe this will be a bit farther south.  It is just now becoming apparent what will happen, so let's see how it looks later on today.  But, I agree, the frustrations are mounting, especially with so many so close by.  It's one thing when Omaha gets it, but quite another when you can take a 30 minute drive to it.

Gary

Just like always....

This storm will remain "North of Kansas City"... this storm will remain "South of Kansas City"... blah blah blah When is KC going to get hit by a major snow?

Sorry---- Just a bit upset here!

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Or, this storm will hit Kansas City.  It isn't etched in stone yet!  Try to look at it with more positivity!  If it trends north or south, then we can get frustrated.

Gary

Gary, let me help you out with the snow fall amounts.  I am shocked anyone is asking.  Everyone should know by now the motto for this winter is 1-4 and no more LOL  
Im not being very positive about this storm.  I remember the ice storm in December and here in the Northland it wasn't much.  

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Yes, but we will get a February twist to this storm.

Gary

Can I put my order in to keep these warmer temps and let my yard dry out a bit??? Today is the TEASE for me! I want to go to the park and run all day!!!! I am like a little kid sitting here at work pouting that I am not out there!

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Yes, it is back to a winter blast tomorrow night.

Gary

Is there any chance that this storm could be like the one we just had on friday, with a band setting up just to the South East? Or is it more apparent that most of the energy will be focused to the north? Also, Can someone tell me why they believe the Northwest part will see the most precip, I am looking at the NAM and GFS, and most of the heaviest part of the storm is to the SE.. Just a little confused.

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Let's wait for another couple of model runs as they are just coming around on this storm.

Gary

Looks like the NAM is comming togeather like the GFS and put the precip right thourgh the metro!!!

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If the NAM is close then we will have a big snowstorm, but is it correct?  We will pick out what we think will happen tonight on our newscasts.

Gary

If i'm reading the NAM right it looks like a CRAZY storm here.

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Yes, the NAM definitely has what would be a very memorable storm here.  The NAM was right with the last one, but it doesn't make it right yet on this one.

Gary

Am I ever glad that being in Grandview, Mo, I won't have to worry about much, if any snow!!!

The only thing that has me worried, is the NWS has that WSW out for the northern parts..The last time, all of the watches and warnings was for south, then it ended up shifting more south and east. I am just hoping that don't happen this time and it shifts down to south KC from the north. I'm sure that won't happen, but......?

Would someone please send a link to the forecast models I can use?

I am sure i am going to get blasted but here goes..I would love to pass up on the snow.. what you say? is Mr dryslot crazy!?   My kids start soccer and how I need them to go outside and run! I am just waiting on 60-70 degree days..They seem so far away! Gary when is it usually 60 degrees avg temp?   Oh Gary cars do mix up fog on the highways just run around in a smokey room the proof is there ask Johnny the traffic guy!

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Funny!  Johnny thinks it mixes up the fog, but then the fog comes right back.  It is like an airplane going through a cloud. Do you see the cloud change?  Nope.

Gary

I bet we'll get 10 feet of snow... I wish.

Well IF and I do mean IF it is correct it puts a 1-1.5 in of precip in the area!!!  10-15in if its all snow, BUT I will wait for the GFS and somemore model runs!

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But the NAM doesn't do this.  Half of that precipitation is not snow.

Gary

Dusting maybe

weatherjaded said:
Would someone please send a link to the forecast models I can use

Here you go:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

When is the new data in??

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1/2 of the new data is now in. But, we must wait until we look at the second half of the new data before we talk about the trends.

Gary

god we started out this morningat 34 and already at 52 in 2 hours
geez

wasn't there a storm last year that looked on all the maps like it had the potential to dump as much as 20 in. of snow???? Could this be a storm like that......All map and no reality....

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Oh, it is anything but all map and no reality, but this won't help how big a snowstorm really is.  There is always a southern edge, and a northern edge to these snowstorms. 

Gary

My daughter has been sick with a fever since Friday and I've had to stay home...figures, she will probably be better tomorrow so I'll have to drive in this crud.

Is this looking like a "quick" snow producer, or an all day, drag out event?  

I'm hoping for a dry slot or a storm that moves a few miles (+50) north!!

what time should i check back for the second half of the data? or when will you update with your thoughts?

after this storm goes by shouldnt next week be a  quite part of the lrc period

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Yes, everything is right on schedule for a quieter period, but last time it lasted only about 5 days. 

Gary

i am hoping for a dry slot also, up the I 44 corridor.

Thanks for the updates on the developing storm.  I notice the NWS is following the system tracking North.  I will note that, again, while Accu-weater, is not as good as the information we receive here, they have done pretty well on their 24-48 hours forecasts for Leawood.  This year they have most always had us getting less snow, or forecasted lower amounts then most everyone else for us in south Jo Co.  They have 4.9 inches of snow with a 3-6 range down here.  That is interesting since the models have us missing the heavier stuff.  

Again, just throwing out there so we can see how they pan out, but was surprised with most things tracking North, they are showing the heaviest snow total predicition for us this year.

I really enjoy the details and explanations that Gary and the team give here, along with the "amateur" forecasters here.  I used to think I was somewhat good and looking at things, but you guys take it to whole new levels.  Quite fun!!!

For those who want snow , Good Luck, I am actually enjoying the warm air today myself!!  snow or rain, just not ice!!!!!

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Actually the NAM has the bullseye of heaviest snow right over KC.  The GFS is just coming out, and we will have two more data sets before the 10 PM newscast tonight.

And, thanks for the compliments.  This is actually something I have done since I was 5 years old. It used to be make believe when I was growing up in Los Angeles and becoming interested in the weather, but now it is real.  And, I know we make it exciting, but at the same time we are only realisitic in what we think will happen.  So, we are very glad that you are enjoying this winter ride through our blog.

Gary

53 degrees and sun shine in Lenexa. This seems to happen every monday. Warm then Cold the next day.

Right now off a couple of blogs ago I said about 5 inches for Olathe. I have made this Prediction twice and Last time the NWS agreed with me. Now Im gonna say it again and Hopefully We have the 5 inches.

WE WILL HAVE 5 INCHES OF SNOW. What u think Gary

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Keep saying it and it will come! I am not there yet, but I hope you are right.

Gary

5" to 8" in Lenexa. I am sticking to my guns. They may be empty guns, but none the less guns. After this I will be ready for spring.

What a fantastic day!  53 degrees outside, lots of sunshine...what more could you want for a Monday?  I'm going to throw the windows open and enjoy it!  

As for the storm...I just don't know.  I just can't seem to get excited about it yet.  We've seen too many just blow by that I guess I've become a little jaded.  Fingers crossed for all you snow lovers out there, though!  

Have a great day everyone!  

I will bet 20 dollars that it will snow at least 5 inches in The Johnson County area.

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Be careful, you wouln't have made this bet yesterday.  Let's see how this trends.

Gary

weatherjaded<-----------------------me to Barbara

Chfs327... The odds say that is not going to happen... I still hope so.

WOW!!! It is already 64 down here and the wind is really blowing. I have my windows open and it feels and smells awesome. LOVE IT!!! I hope I am in the snow for tomorrrow but chances  are I am not, LOL!! Oh well...today sure feels nice.
Monica
Pleasanton KS

LOL, weatherjaded!  I didn't even see you on here!  Too funny!  

Any snow is good so I am not getting excited. My shovel and ice melt are ready.

One of these storms is going to hit the metro, it might as well be this one

New GFS is not bringing in the cold air as fast as the NAM

is sedalia way to far south on this one or do we still have a chance?

Well, the GFS still has significant precip on us after the rain snow line is well past us.....I still like the NAMs version a little better

Fellow bloggers... how often do these storms track EXACTLY where the models say they will go 24-48 hours in advance??  Not very often.  They always tend to shift a little north... or a little south.  As most of you know, the slightest shift in the path can have a SIGNIFICANT impact on snow totals.  Just look at last week's storm.  I got about 1" in SE Jackson County.  15 miles east of me, they were having white out conditions on Hwy 50 with 5+" of snow.

My point??  Well, I don't think we WANT the bullseye to be directly on us at this point.  We want it slightly off... and then hope for "the shift" that puts us in the bullseye at the last minute!!

not again.....

It is fun to speculate and forecast on our own.  But that is why the #1 weather team in town is important.  So that we can have the forecast to plan our travels around.

why is everyone thinking KC will get hit with this storm? It's almost a given that the track will end up too far north and we get a mix/flurries/dusting in KC and south. I am so positive about this, I would almost bet on it and I don't gamble, lol. I wonder if Gary,Jeremy, Brett think I'm crazy?

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No, we don't think you are crazy.  But we are due.  They have been north and south of us, and perhaps this time we will get it.  I am not convinced yet though.

Gary

Gary, thanks! The storm might get KC proper, but sure not South KC, THAT, I am convinced of and I sure hope I am right, I'm pretty sure I will be..How does that sound with that anology of the storm area?

anybody else look at the MOS today?  it's showing us in the 4-6 range

Ah yes, another day in Kansas City and another chance of snow in the forecast.  With any luck, the angry little low will track either north or south leaving Kansas City happy and mostly snow free.  I enjoy see snowstorms on my television when all the action is located in the arctic.
I understand that the majority of the bloggers really enjoy the snow, but my assumption is that most residents of this area do not even know about this blog.  This would not be by lack of effort by the weather team.   I have heard them mention the blog many times on the air.  If more area residents blogged, especially the people who commute every day to work, the general dominating theme of the blog would be very anti-snow with the exception of Christmas.
All I hear at work is, when will it warm up and when will all the #^&$*$$9 snow go away.  
Well no matter what happens the daylight is increasing every day as are the average high and low temperatures and it is only a matter of time before the cold area retreats to the north.

NEW BLOG

We will sure take a foot of snow here in Lee's Summit! Bring it on!!!

I see Gary blew another forecast. My question...how come every time there is precipitation in the area it is referred to as a "storm"? Is an inch or two of snow really a storm?