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Major Winter Storm takes aim on Kansas City

Good late morning bloggers,

As temperatures jump into the 60s and approach 70 degrees a winter blast is poised to hit us again, and soon!

The latest GFS and NAM models have Kansas City near the bullseye of this major storm on Tuesday night.   It is only about 36 hours away, so confidence is fairly high that we will have accumulations of snow on Tuesday night, but it is still undetermined who will get hit the most.  I think there is a strong possibility of a 1 foot band of snow somewhere between Paola and the Iowa border.  Before you get too excited, remember the track and strength of this storm is yet to be determined.  It is a storm that forms late tonight and Tuesday as it approaches us and the track could easily shift by 100 miles north or south.  But, as I said the NAM and GFS models both have the north side of Kansas City in the highest amounts at this time.  Could this be "our turn"?

Watch Brett Anthony at 11 AM on our Midday newscast.  He and I will come up with a first guess, but likely leave out the high end possibility at this moment.  We will update the blog later this afternoon or evening as we gather more information.  Hopefully you will watch our weathercasts tonight at 5, 6, and 10 PM for Kansas City's most accurate forecast!

Gary

Published Monday, February 04, 2008 9:55 AM by glezak

Comments

 

GianlucaRossi said:

1 foot of snow will be awesome, When the major snowfall would take place?

------------------

Or 1 inch.  Be careful, we aren't predicting it for your backyard yet.

Gary

February 4, 2008 10:10 AM
 

littleladybugs said:

so another round of winter! i love winter but man its been a wet cold one!
so you think we will be under any watches or anything?
are we talking just snow or snow/sleet or ice???
February 4, 2008 10:15 AM
 

homerun said:

Good morning Gary--This storm should be interesting.  Since it corresponds to the December 10th-11th ice storm here in Topeka to KC, you are right the track will be crucial.  I bet we could get that 1 inch or who knows!   Actually when would the precip begin to change over to the icy stuff or is that a question too?  Would it also last most of Tuesday night?  Keep up that good work.  I will let you know our storm totals.  Michael/Berryton/Topeka
February 4, 2008 10:17 AM
 

KSuds said:

Dear Snow God,

Please set your aim on Platte City!!! I've been dreaming of a 1 footer for a long time.  

Sincerely,
KSuds

February 4, 2008 10:17 AM
 

Bryan said:

WOOHOO! Part of me wants to be really excited, but I will contain myself until later tomorrow. A lot could happen between now and then.

Bryan
February 4, 2008 10:17 AM
 

heavysnow said:

I am liking the looks of the models myself.... I would like the changeover to snow as quick as possible.  
February 4, 2008 10:19 AM
 

John Moon III _Weather Enthusiast_ said:

WOW, I sure hope we see some snow down here on Tuesday!!!  I would love a snowfall that lasts more than 1 day :P I know our chances in the southern viewing area looks slim for major snow, but like you always say, it could change. (What are the models trending towards?) I hope more snow than rain, rain is nice but it is winter and needs to be snow!!! :)   It looks like well will see some very interesting weather the next couple of days though!!! :) READY FOR SOME WEATHER!!!

What are your thoughts right now?
February 4, 2008 10:19 AM
 

nwmowx said:

I will keep my SNOW HIT K.C. thoughts going all day for you guys!!!  Believe me, you can have it!!  
February 4, 2008 10:21 AM
 

heavysnow said:

I have seen 12 inches of snow fall in one storm just 2 times in my life.... in 1989 during that brutal cold stretch and then back in 2001 right when I had just bought my first house in Blue Springs.  We received 12 inches of snow and a pipe in my house burst that day.  It was a new house and I couldn't the shut off so water flooded my basement.  It kind of sucked but I still had 12 inches of snow outside!!

I am due for a storm greater than 12 inches.....it is my turn Gary!!

15 inches please
February 4, 2008 10:22 AM
 

MrSteve said:

Spring is going to be gorgeous.

February 4, 2008 10:23 AM
 

mitchinolathe said:

This would be a fantastic birthday present!  It was 3-4 years ago we got a good 6-8 inches on my birthday, WE'RE DUE!!
February 4, 2008 10:26 AM
 

Jayhawk said:

Can someone post the GFS link for the map Gary is referring to.  Thanks.

Don
February 4, 2008 10:27 AM
 

Mike said:

It would be neat if Lawrence gets slammed...as long as it can hold off til maybe 10 PM Tuesday night so people can go to the caucuses.

Then, let it snow!

FWIW, the most I ever saw at once was when I was a kid in Omaha...we got 18 inches that fell over 2 days on a weekend in March...on Friday it was 70, the Saturday a blizzard...and we didn't have to go back to school til Wednesday!
February 4, 2008 10:29 AM
 

jbtornado said:

St.Joseph look out, you are the snow capital around... And I just have a hunch this is going to go north a bit!
February 4, 2008 10:30 AM
 

Northlander said:

Ah yes, another day in Kansas City and another chance of snow in the forecast.  With any luck, the angry little low will track either north or south leaving Kansas City happy and mostly snow free.  I enjoy see snowstorms on my television when all the action is located in the arctic.
I understand that the majority of the bloggers really enjoy the snow, but my assumption is that most residents of this area do not even know about this blog.  This would not be by lack of effort by the weather team.   I have heard them mention the blog many times on the air.  If more area residents blogged, especially the people who commute every day to work, the general dominating theme of the blog would be very anti-snow with the exception of Christmas.
All I hear at work is, when will it warm up and when will all the #^&$*$$9 snow go away.  
Well no matter what happens the daylight is increasing every day as are the average high and low temperatures and it is only a matter of time before the cold area retreats to the north.
February 4, 2008 10:30 AM
 

heavysnow said:

Here you go Chickenhawk

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Look up 4 panel charts
February 4, 2008 10:31 AM
 

JPnKC said:

Brett or Gary --Is this storm setting up like the ice storm moisture wise? It looks like that to me..

What a strong warm front this morning!!


This  storm will be incredible to watch come together- ---whoever gets the snow!!!

I will be ready for you new graphics on the 11 o'clock show..
February 4, 2008 10:36 AM
 

sgt duck said:

Gary, Its been since the winter of 80 and 81 since our area (Chillicothe) has seen a foot of snow. I think it would be great, I know it would slow people down but that may not be a bad thing. People just need to realize mother nature is in control and go with the flow. Dont drive 70 mph on our roads, slow down and take your time. Spring is coming, enjoy the winter weather. Tim
February 4, 2008 10:36 AM
 

weatherguru5 said:

Gary,
Really looking forward to some more snow. My wife is a teacher and says that she needs a snow day soon! Hopefully this one comes through for us!

Nick
February 4, 2008 10:43 AM
 

beckysma said:

Northlander, hoping for a snow day on Wednesday!
February 4, 2008 10:47 AM
 

CentralOP2 said:

Currently the warm front is just to the south of St. Joseph and Kirksville.
South of that line the temperatures are near 60F already.

Here is the latest from the 12Z GFS!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/12/gfs_slp024042_l.shtml

It is only 36-42 hours away! We had better get some snow out of this event!!!
February 4, 2008 10:50 AM
 

KCDewayne said:

just so you all know it is currently 60 on the south side and humid it feels like miami how can u all want more snow how do you not love this weather!!!!!!

Im am more of a Thunder Storm Lover then a cold and snow lover

Hey Gary what does febuary look like you think we will see a warm febuary or cold?

-----------------

I think the ups and downs will continue through February. 

Gary

February 4, 2008 10:51 AM
 

kellyann said:

WooHoo!!! I was correct in saying South KC would not get much!! I was pretty confident on this and will remain so. Now I don't have to cancel my plans for Wed morning, thank gosh!! Bring on spring!!
February 4, 2008 10:53 AM
 

BBTye said:

With all the excitement today, I want to stay connected on the road!

Can anyone recommend a good way to get NWS watches, warnings and HWO "pushed" to a mobile device?  Also, does anyone access the blog on a mobile?  What's the best way to do that?
February 4, 2008 10:53 AM
 

ShawnP said:

I saw 18 inches in Maine in 88 and was awesome with a nice full blown Noreaster blowing the snow sideways.
February 4, 2008 10:55 AM
 

CentralOP2 said:

KCDewayne,
I believe the meteorologists at NBC have said that February will be warmer than normal temperature wise. (Don't quote me on that). However, I think this month will produce a decent amount of precipitation, including the event in the next 48 hours.
CentralOP
February 4, 2008 10:55 AM
 

momtylerethan said:

I'm trying not to get to excited but I can't help it.  I keep saying my boys (4 and 7) have never seen more than 3in of snow like I did when I was a kid. I want them to experience a big snow.  This would be a perfect birthday present for my oldest to wake up to on Wednesday-no school and lots of snow.  He turns 8 on Wednesday.  Keeping my fingers crossed.
February 4, 2008 10:56 AM
 

kane1970 said:

60 degrees in Lenexa. Feels like a spring day. Wonder if there has ever been a storm that came through that started out as strong severe thunder storms and then turned in to a snow event with accumilations. That would be a crazy weather day. Well I geuss I will keep my fingers, toes, legs, arms and eyes crossed in hope for some great snow fall amounts.
February 4, 2008 10:57 AM
 

mattmaisch said:

Gary,

Wow! This is really exciting!!  Can't wait to see the new models through the day.  Let's hope the echo the 12Z data!  What a great day...

Matt.

----------

Matt,

It still may go into the usual spots that have been hit this winter, so let's see.  There is one key factor that I am looking at and we will go into this later (a cold surge moving into northwest Nebraska)

February 4, 2008 11:01 AM
 

PK in LS said:

I was 4 years old during the winter of 1959-60 and lived in Trenton.  We had well over a foot of snow in one storm.  I remember it as if it were yesterday.  We've got pictures of my older brother and I on the porch and the level of snow is unbelievable.  We had a slight hill in our yard and all the kids in the neighborhood came over to build snow forts.  They lasted forever because we poured water on them when we finished and the temperature stayed below freezing for days and days.  My dad worked for MoPub and an area around the power plant was used to dump the snow taken off the streets.  They had a pool to see how long it would be before the snow in the pile all melted.  The winner guessed a date in April.

--------------

Well,

Let's see what happens this time.  This year's pattern is similar to that of 59-60.

Gary

February 4, 2008 11:09 AM
 

bgmike said:

I refuse to get modelitus...............I refuse to get modelitus.......I refuse to get modelitus....  Maybe if I keep saying it I won't get too excited.

Later,
Mike in Ottawa
February 4, 2008 11:10 AM
 

Tinkermom said:

Gary,

So all looks ok for tomorrow morning right (meaning no precip)?  We have an early flight out to Florida where it looks like they are experiencing near record highs!   I am looking forward to wearing my shorts and the kids are hoping for a swim tomorrow afternoon.  :-)

-----------------

Tomorrow morning should start out dry, but temperatures will be dropping.

Gary

February 4, 2008 11:11 AM
 

Fred said:

I refuse to get excited until Gary tells me more than "1-4..."  

Also, did the strength of this storm and its track surprise you Gary?

Fred
February 4, 2008 11:21 AM
 

Weatherfly said:

Gary,

Will you feel confident enough after the 18Z runs to post an initial snow map?  I'm taking a stab now of a broad area of 4-7" snow around the metro.
February 4, 2008 11:26 AM
 

kane1970 said:

I just watched action weather plus online and it looked like it way to the south??? what was that??? I am cornfused. oh well.
February 4, 2008 11:34 AM
 

inlimbo said:

I have 68.8 degrees in Peculiar...unreal... Its hard to imagine a snow storm right now..Looks like its going to be a battle of when the cold air sinks far enough south..
February 4, 2008 11:34 AM
 

jesstone said:

Hey, Guys, I too am a snow lover......more like a kid than an adult.  BUT........I am skeptical this time around.  Remember how we were supposed to get 1-4 inches, and at my house (south O.P.) I saw ZERO.  I would LOVE to get dumped on ( 6 or more inches), but I think that would take an act of God at this point.  Don't get yourselves too excited, because, as I have found in the 2 years here, K.C. doesn't get the "good " snowfalls.  

Oh, and if all else fails, try the trick my daughter tries..... put a spoon under your pillow and wear your pjs inside out:)  She is conviced it works!!!
February 4, 2008 11:35 AM
 

sertorius said:

Gary:

Good mid morning to you!!!

On my off hour so of course I just had to take a peak!!! Ok, here we go again-Bill's obsession with surface charts:

1. The front at 16Z has made it through Concordia, Kansas and looks to be on Manhattan's door step and, if I am looking at things correctly, the surface low appears to be sitting right on the broder of Missouri, Kansas, and Iowa. Will be intereasting to track this front and see how far it progresses in the next 3-5 hours.

2. Looking at the water vapor imagery, that Upper Level Low is really digging into S Claifornia-it is almost to the tip of the Baja of California-at least I think that is what I am seeing!!! LOL

This is going to be quite a trip watching this all develop-what a tempertaure gradient there is going to be with this storm-wow!!! I promise, I will not Blog every hour with the surface observations, but I have always found it so interesting to follow the fronts and the satelite imagery and of course I get carried away!!!

Ya know this has been a great winter already but man, as a freakish snow lover, to miss two major snow events in 5 days by 100-150 miles would be..well, it would sting-but, I could add to my KC snow storm book-Missed it by that much....
Have a great day

Bill hooked again on another snow chance in Lawrence
February 4, 2008 11:36 AM
 

MikeTrainor1 said:

northlander... i think there are only about 3 or 4 of us who participate regularly in this blog that would rather see less snow, or none. snowlovers are definitely in the majority here! you have to admire their enthusiasm at least. :-) - mt
February 4, 2008 11:39 AM
 

Barbara said:

62.4 beautiful degrees in Olathe.  The breeze coming through my windows feels awesome!  My house will definately get a good airing out today!  I wish we could just keep this weather for the next week!  
February 4, 2008 11:40 AM
 

KSuds said:

I LOVE SNOW!!! Bring it on! I really don't think it could ever snow to much for me.
February 4, 2008 11:51 AM
 

CentralOP2 said:

The temperature gradient across the region remains EXTREME. It is still in the 30s in northern Kansas and southeast Nebraska with a north wind there around 10mph.  Meanwhile, the wind is westerly around Manhattan, KS with temperatures in the 40s. Eastern Kansas is near 60 with southerly winds. It is another crazy weather day.
February 4, 2008 11:51 AM
 

Northlander said:

Agreed MikeTrainor agreed.  I wonder what they will be blogging about in June or July when there is no chance of snow.
February 4, 2008 11:51 AM
 

CentralOP2 said:

I say bring on the snow as well. I think we will definitely have enough cold air to filter in to give us a good snow event.
February 4, 2008 11:52 AM
 

f00dl3 said:

Ok, fine. Here's what I think right now:

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=796045&id=508280943


I could be wayyyyyy off on this (by as much as 6" in some spots), but this is based on instinct, and I am going this one by my first instinct.

The dense fog this morning symbolizes that there is plenty of moisture. I think if anything complicates this it will be temperatures.
February 4, 2008 11:53 AM
 

beckysma said:

I love days like today, I went out on my lunch hour just to take some deep breaths of fresh air and feel the sun on my face.

However, I also like a good snow, and I know spring will be here soon enough.  So I'm rooting for the snow!
February 4, 2008 11:53 AM
 

nastyweather said:

Well last Thursday pretty much wiped me out mentally on the idea of having a decent snow storm this year.  However, I don't remember a single time this winter season where it's been this close to the storm and we not only have the NAM and GFS in relative agreement, but there is this much moisture.  Not only is it blue, but magenta too, WOW this is crazy!
February 4, 2008 11:54 AM
 

LibertyB said:

I really hope we're not getting excited for nothing this time.
February 4, 2008 11:55 AM
 

Brent said:

"I think there is a strong possibility of a 1 foot band of snow somewhere between Paola and the Iowa border. "

paola!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
come on this is what I have been waiting for all year!!!
February 4, 2008 11:56 AM
 

Brent said:

nice snowfall map at 11:50 Brett!
February 4, 2008 11:57 AM
 

f00dl3 said:

Argh delete the above one -- linked to the wrong photo the wrong way...

Ok, fine. Here's what I think right now:

http://photos-d.ak.facebook.com/photos-ak-sctm/v183/73/61/508280943/n508280943_875663_370.jpg

I could be way off on this (by as much as 6" in some spots), but this is based on instinct, and I am going this one by my first instinct.

The dense fog this morning symbolizes that there is plenty of moisture. I think if anything complicates this it will be temperatures.
February 4, 2008 11:57 AM
 

MikeTrainor1 said:

northlander... in june or july it's been, at least historically, about the severe weather, until that dries up. blog postings dry up too. july and august tend to be "boring" to weather enthusiasts since most of the time it's one day after the other of the same hot, sticky weather. arrival of any clouds or chance of rain generates a little excitement then. lol.... all in good fun, snowlovers! ;-) - mt
February 4, 2008 11:58 AM
 

ohsgal said:

I am liking this 64 degrees can we just skip the rest of winter please?????
February 4, 2008 12:02 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Annnnnd, another storm to track...
After what happened a few days ago I'm not going to get way too excited, but will be watching, things to keep us all grounded...
not a negetive tilt...
doesn't form a ULL....
WIDTH of the snow band can change as well as track.
Not to be a downer or anything still though looks like it could be fun!
February 4, 2008 12:09 PM
 

W0XDL said:

I would agree with many of the thoughts expressed here today....I don't want to get too excited yet....it might just be 1".....could this be our turn?  

I'm keeping my fingers crossed!

DL
February 4, 2008 12:13 PM
 

Braysmama said:

NWS has us getting less than half an inch...hope so. I have family driving up tomorrow night for a flight out of KCI and wondering if I should call them to let them know to come earlier. Anybody have any idea's on when it will really get nasty? (If it does at all?)
February 4, 2008 12:14 PM
 

Teamster83 said:

This whole storm system is a joke the NWS is pretty much right
February 4, 2008 12:16 PM
 

Braysmama said:

Absolutely beautiful outside today!! My weather station has it at 73.1 and the windows are wide open and wearing shorts!! :)
February 4, 2008 12:17 PM
 

mattmaisch said:

Check out this snowfall link from the 12Z NAM!!  Seems hard to believe, but wouldn't this be Amazing!!!

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif

Matt
February 4, 2008 12:18 PM
 

kellyann said:

Can someone tell me why NWS has WSW out for north if the maps show the Precip south?
February 4, 2008 12:20 PM
 

inlimbo said:

70 degrees in peculiar...  talk about your wild temp. swings
February 4, 2008 12:20 PM
 

inlimbo said:

70 degrees in peculiar...  talk about your wild temp. swings
February 4, 2008 12:20 PM
 

StormWyndd said:

Brent, for those of us at work who can't see the show & the snow map, what'd it say?
February 4, 2008 12:21 PM
 

inlimbo said:

Seems like everyone(forecasters and maps) are all over the place on this one..why such a difference????? So far its between 1/2 " and 18" lol.. and its not THAT far out..
February 4, 2008 12:26 PM
 

kane1970 said:

Where is Bretts snow fall map? Is it available online???
mattmaisch thats a cool link I like the potential.
I think that everyone that wants it to snow should hope it doesn't
And every one that doesn't want it to snow should hope it does.


So here it goes. Its not going to snow at all!!!!!
February 4, 2008 12:26 PM
 

supercell said:

StormWyndd:  12Z NAM reads 14" for KC if you believe the high end.
February 4, 2008 12:27 PM
 

RodB said:

That maps put KC in line for 12".  I'll believe it when I see.  How quickly we all forget last Thursday.
February 4, 2008 12:27 PM
 

kane1970 said:

67 in Lenexa. With sun screen on. Man its a hot one.


Hot time, summer in the city.
February 4, 2008 12:29 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

I am becoming a bit concerned that since it's up to the 70s now (even North of the river here) - that that may cause issues with temps tonight & tomorrow ...
February 4, 2008 12:30 PM
 

Luthur said:

Everyone is falling for the models again.  Have't we learned?

I'm sticking with 1 - 2 inches in South KC.  It'll be about the 8th time this winter that has happened.
February 4, 2008 12:31 PM
 

mamaof3girls said:

It is now 71 down here....feels great!!! Tomorrow should be exciting for someone!! Might it be my turn, LOLOL?!!!! I am not getting excited yet? I will enjoy today though.
Monica
Pleasanton KS
February 4, 2008 12:32 PM
 

reafamily said:

Please, please, please snow!

I love snow and nothing was better than the 26 inches we had at Adrian last December. Bring it on.

We will be posting "boo-hoos" and "come on winter" this summer. I HATE the hot, humid weather and am not looking forward to summer at all.
February 4, 2008 12:33 PM
 

marlina10 said:

I hope a lot of snow falls all around Kansas City. I'm tired of seeing the northern areas get 10 inches and Johnson County getting one inch.
February 4, 2008 12:40 PM
 

sertorius said:

Gary:

Just me again-I know, i know but I am on lunch now so I swear I am not blogging while students are in my room LOL!!!

Looking at the 18Z surface charts the front has passed throughj Manhattan, Kansas-they are already in the lower to mid 40's-fun to watch the progression of this front-it has moved a significant amount since this morning. Again, will be fun/interesting to see where it is in the next 3-5 hour and see if the front can get through Topeka by say 3-4 P.M. . Wow-another fascinating strom to watch!!! 2 in 5 days-so cool!!!!

Bill so into this in Lawrence
February 4, 2008 12:43 PM
 

Buddy said:

I lived in Silver Spring, MD a few years back and woke up to 36 inches of snowfall from about a 16 hour period.  I've never seen anything else like it.
February 4, 2008 12:44 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

While the rest of you are praying for high snowfall counts, I am in love with today! My furnace is off, I am actually not at work so I can enjoy this summerlike weather and have my doors open. I don't care if I am in the minority, I am loving this.
February 4, 2008 12:45 PM
 

Jennifer and Kelsey said:

i gotta tell ya...i went for a run and it's simply awesome outside.  i see a little bit of green grass poking through the yellow stuff on my lawn and i'm getting itchy for spring.  

To answer the question about what weather hobbyists do during the summer...we watch out for hurricane weather and head south if we can.  

Jennifer
February 4, 2008 12:45 PM
 

Brent said:

the snow map had 6 inches in st joseph 3 to 5 for the metro, and lesser amounts to the south

but forget that!

look at this!

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif


come!
February 4, 2008 12:47 PM
 

Braysmama said:

Brent-settle down!! LOL . I have a bad feeling we are going to get missed down here again. I would say 1-3 if we are lucky, unless the track takes a more southern track....
February 4, 2008 12:51 PM
 

kellyann said:

Brent, don't ya know this will not happen? Maybe for KC, but not South KC..We might see a mix and dusting..If any accum. I would go for 1 inch.
February 4, 2008 12:54 PM
 

Scott said:

I do not want to shovel snow.  However, selfishly, I am praying for this storm to connect in this area.  I have been waiting over a month on this one...and it fits perfectly.  Even if it does just miss, I feel that the analysis was valid.
February 4, 2008 12:56 PM
 

4caster said:

Someone mentioned why the NWS has the watches for the north and the track is further south.  This is because they posted those advisories BEFORE the 12Z model came out.  All of the discussions are based on last nights (00Z) model runs.  The new data is for the afternoon shift, and are they going to have fun deciphering it all!  Still am not 100% on board, as I have seen a model shift back and forth in a 6 hour period in '05.  But, the kid inside is dreaming of 18-24 inches of snow that stays for longer than a day!!
February 4, 2008 1:00 PM
 

heavysnow said:

I think those people calling for one inch are crazy....the GFS has been real consistent bringing snow on this forecast and this storm in December produced quite a bit of precip.  

The NAM actually got the last storm correct and has progressed south each run but has been pretty consistent on moisture and temps
February 4, 2008 1:02 PM
 

N2mountains said:

Remember last storm, I think I will wait to see flakes before I get all into another round of this. YES I-70 south is DUE, but will this be the season highlight, or another bust? Time will tell.
February 4, 2008 1:07 PM
 

kellyann said:

Heavy snow, I think one inch for south KC is correct, but maybe not for areas right in KC and to the north.
February 4, 2008 1:08 PM
 

heavysnow said:

sorry kellyann, but if you look at the GFS and NAM they are both painting a consistent band of snow in KC Metro, even south.  

We are going to get more than an inch of snow and its looking like a good amount
February 4, 2008 1:10 PM
 

kellyann said:

Heavysnow, the models might say that now, but I bet you anything, come tomorrow, that will all change and it will be north of I-70. Heck, that track might not change til the last minute.
February 4, 2008 1:12 PM
 

Teamster83 said:

one inch of snow for kc the snow track will go north thats my prediction
February 4, 2008 1:14 PM
 

kellyann said:

I guess it is obvious that I don't see a big snow for south KC nor do I want one...The weather today is so awsome!! If only it would stay this way, wow!
February 4, 2008 1:15 PM
 

LVStormSpotter said:

Weather team, how far east do u think the heavy snow has the potential to fall?

Any chance in Columbia?
February 4, 2008 1:17 PM
 

radman22 said:

I am suprised (maybe not) that the NWS has not issued a WSW for the metro.   They seem to be pretty slow to react to the model changes.    I would think they would give people a heads up for something 24hrs away.    They could always then make it a snow or winter weather advisory if it is not too major.    Last week they had the warnings out and we knew we would not get much.    

No matter what happens the last 10 days have been a wild ride and we got a taste of everything.   This may be our last shot for a good snowstorm, so lets hope it all comes togeather to put us all in the zone.
February 4, 2008 1:17 PM
 

Hushpook said:

Looks like that cold front is on the move. Chadron NE....north western part of the  state....24 at dawn, 14 now.
February 4, 2008 1:24 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

The visible sat. loop of the region is very impressive showing how close we came to getting out of the low clouds and fog here in St. Joe, the fog has lifted but the clouds are hanging strong, it also shows how the low clouds are surging south in Neb. into north central Ks.  Talk about two different worlds, 43 here and 67 in K.C.   By the way congrats to Brett on the Polar Bear Plunge!!!    Definitely was not a warm day on the beach, as his wardrobe would have suggested!
February 4, 2008 1:25 PM
 

simplykristi said:

WOW  Definitely a temperature contrast between KC and St. Joe!  It's 67 in KC and 43 in St. Joe.  

Kristi
February 4, 2008 1:26 PM
 

Luthur said:

"This may be our last shot for a good snowstorm,"

Um, it's the fourth day of February.  

--

I'd be shocked if we got more than 2 inches.
February 4, 2008 1:27 PM
 

spaceotteradam said:

I like your enthusiasim Brent! Always in for the biggest forcast :) lol
February 4, 2008 1:27 PM
 

Teamster83 said:

There is obviously something the weather service sees that we dont, or they would put out a winter storm watch for KC
February 4, 2008 1:30 PM
 

adogg said:

A foot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  I so hope so
February 4, 2008 1:31 PM
 

nastyweather said:

I'm not sure if I want the NWS to issue a WSW for JoCo, because that seems to be the kiss of death for a good snowstorm.  However, Gary appears to be excited about this storm and he wasn't last time, so that makes me feel more confident about things.
February 4, 2008 1:33 PM
 

radman22 said:

"Um, it's the fourth day of February"

Have you looked at the long range temps.    The inactive period of the LRC is about on us and we should see a surge in the temps for the last part of Feb.

We may get a suprise in March, when the active part of the cycle starts up again, but it will have to battle the warmth as well.  
February 4, 2008 1:34 PM
 

kane1970 said:

I wouldn't worry about the weather service! They were calling for large amounts last storm, and we got .......... you geussed it nothing. So this time they are calling for it to go north and we will get .............................................................
.......................................................................................................
to be continued
February 4, 2008 1:35 PM
 

weatherguru5 said:

Whats the latest?? Still only a 60% chance I see... Are we in for a major storm or will we be disappionted like last week?
February 4, 2008 1:38 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

people, the only reason why there are weather advisories to the NW of us is because they are basing their forecast on the 00z runs.  and on those runs, the main emphasis for bad weather was NW of us.  things will change by the time the new 00z runs are out.  i have a better feeling about this storm for if anything-than the fact that the qpf is much, much better.  not to mention it looks like there could be convection with this one...
February 4, 2008 1:40 PM
 

Hushpook said:

Maybe the weather service is gun shy, after being so aggressive with the Winter Storm Warning last week.
February 4, 2008 1:41 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

weatherguru5, we must wait for the next model runs before anything can be said.  Just like last week if they are going to change, it will be on the next model run.
February 4, 2008 1:43 PM
 

Teamster83 said:

murphy when do the ew runs come out?
February 4, 2008 1:44 PM
 

mbmeek said:

I will be shocked if any part of the metro picks up 3+ inches from this storm. It's way to early, and WAY to many things can and will go wrong. I have a new personal policy of not believing a snow forecast until I see heavy radar echos directly over my neighborhood and I look outside and confirm that it is reaching the ground.
February 4, 2008 1:45 PM
 

weatherjaded said:

The next model runs are at 4pm is that correct?
February 4, 2008 1:45 PM
 

Luthur said:

Or maybe the NWS knows what they are doing.  Or,perhaps  pvtmurphy is correct. Time will tell.  When do the 00z runs come out?

--

Radman - Wasn't trying to be mean.  It just seems to be a bit early in the year to call off snow.
February 4, 2008 1:46 PM
 

Teamster83 said:

i hear that mb, thats why i am calling bs, Kc dont get snows like that anymore
February 4, 2008 1:46 PM
 

Bryan said:

per the 1PM hazardous weather outlook they will issue no watches with the afternoon package.

Bryan
February 4, 2008 1:48 PM
 

Bryan said:

I meant to say new...not no
February 4, 2008 1:49 PM
 

RickMckc said:

The track on the NAM looks wonderful (for us snow lovers) ... but it is very, very rare climatologically-speaking. I've lived in KC for 20 years and that track has happened maybe 3 times that I am aware of. But, here's hoping!

On the link posted above:

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif

Check out the amounts in northern IL!
February 4, 2008 1:50 PM
 

Teamster83 said:

what does that mean bryan
February 4, 2008 1:51 PM
 

Brett34 said:

Pay attention to LJB weather service "LezakJeremyBrett" weather service, its much more accurate.  It would be sweet if that band set up where they are thinking, it will change probably, lets just hope right now!!
February 4, 2008 1:53 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

the nam comes out in about 2 hours, the gfs, about 3.  because of the timing, i wouldnt expect any advisories until the night shift.  maybe a winter weather advisory at the most for now(unless if they feel the 06z and 12z is enough to warrant a WSW).  once the 00z models come out(2030 for nam, 2130 for gfs) you will likely see your WSW posted.  

something to keep in mind though...it looks like it may get quite windy during a good part of the storm.  if winds can get gusty, a blizzard watch/warning is possible given the anticpated duration of the event.  however, since 35mph is the threshold for a blizzard, i imagine we will have a blowing snow advisory instead.
February 4, 2008 1:53 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Looks like new watches will be issued later today to include KC according to the latest NWS hazardous outlook.

Kristi
February 4, 2008 1:53 PM
 

Sheree said:

I'm still feeling the burn from last Thursday.  I can't get excited about any amounts being predicted - feels like it will all be rain, with maybe a 1/4 inch of snow at the end.  I thought the Giants would win last night but hope I'm wrong about the no snow tomorrow!
February 4, 2008 1:58 PM
 

kane1970 said:

This storm I think is going to be tricky because it is actualy several peices. Not just one big ball of energy. That could throw off how this storm comes together.That is making it hard to forecast. Just my thought. I have already dropped a degree here in Lenexa.
February 4, 2008 1:58 PM
 

Teamster83 said:

sure does kristi
February 4, 2008 2:00 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

NAM ROLLING OUT AS WE SPEAK!  Stay tunned for more info!
February 4, 2008 2:04 PM
 

KSCityKitty said:

I will not be holding my breath.
February 4, 2008 2:07 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

You may be correct time will tell.
February 4, 2008 2:08 PM
 

CentralOP2 said:

Let's see:
Heavy Precip potential on 12Z NAM
Heavy Precip potential on 12Z GFS

Both models say this 36-42 hours in ADVANCE
NWS will likely issue a WSW for the metro area this afternoon based on the NAM and GFS.
The cold air is not far away at all.
These warm days are very annoying this time of year so enjoy today.
I will hold out hope that we actually get SOME snow this time.
February 4, 2008 2:12 PM
 

Braysmama said:

Still think we get no more than an inch!
February 4, 2008 2:13 PM
 

Heymom said:

Plus 70 in Harrisonville.  As much as I'd like a big snow event I will not anticipate it this year.  I'm tired of getting skunked, but more tired of allowing my hopes to be built up.  If this storm is anything like the storms in Dec., we will get moisture but lack the proper temps. for anything but rain.
February 4, 2008 2:14 PM
 

kellyann said:

Braysmama, I with you on that thought! But wow! isn't today wonderful? Just makes me anxious for spring!!
February 4, 2008 2:16 PM
 

twister11 said:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/fp0_036.shtml
New NAM model, the heaviest band is to the southeast, and east of Kansas City
February 4, 2008 2:17 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

As of right now on the NAM its showing the REALLY HEAVY PRECIP. just to the east of I-35 north to south, but its JUST now getting into day 2 so we will see.  The GFS usually comes out 1 hr after the NAM so we will see.
February 4, 2008 2:18 PM
 

kellyann said:

why does the NWS graphical chart still show the heavy snow and precip north of here?
February 4, 2008 2:20 PM
 

radman22 said:

I did not take your comment as being mean Luthur.   I just have a gut feeling this is our last shot at a 4-8" snow.    I know it is way to early to make that prediction, but I really feel February will be much warmer, with cold spells.    

Too many near misses for me this year!    We better get 3" out of this storm or I follow the groundhog and go hybernate till spring.
February 4, 2008 2:20 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

If it's not North of Kansas City it has to be South of Kansas City.

I hereby enact Weather Law #20080204a

Winter Storms must track either North or South of Kansas City, and leave most portions of the metro with less than 3" of snow.

Effective immediately.
February 4, 2008 2:22 PM
 

radman22 said:

Officially in a WSW
February 4, 2008 2:23 PM
 

bellgolf08 said:

could we be seeing what happened last week where it shifted south?
February 4, 2008 2:23 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

Well, It still is showing most areas getting at least 6 inches.  I will wait for the GFS and see what it thinks and take the middle between the two.
February 4, 2008 2:23 PM
 

Braysmama said:

74.2 in Kingsville....and as for the snow...I"ll believe it when I see it. ;)
February 4, 2008 2:25 PM
 

shawn67 said:

winter storm watch now in effect for viewing area
February 4, 2008 2:26 PM
 

kellyann said:

so now KC and south is in a watch, lol
February 4, 2008 2:26 PM
 

Scott said:

I can't remember the last time so early in the season I saw these types of dewpoints...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/rtma/hr4/images/rtma_dew_iowl.gif
February 4, 2008 2:26 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

AND the NAM is showing snow for at least 5 frames!
February 4, 2008 2:27 PM
 

Braysmama said:

Yeah-weather watch equals no snow.
February 4, 2008 2:28 PM
 

nastyweather said:

Well the 48 hour gives us a lot of hope.  There is a ton of moisture for this storm.  We're right on the edge of this thing and these maps are never accurate on location.  Anyway, someone's getting a whole bunch of snow.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p48_048l.gif
February 4, 2008 2:29 PM
 

RodB said:

I second the motion on Weather Law #20080204a.  All in favor say I.
February 4, 2008 2:29 PM
 

bellgolf08 said:

of course pettis is left out of the watch! just my luck lol
February 4, 2008 2:31 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I am going to get up early tomorrow to go vote!

Kristi
February 4, 2008 2:32 PM
 

twister11 said:

lol Kristi, That is probabaly the smartest thing to do!
February 4, 2008 2:34 PM
 

kane1970 said:

I
February 4, 2008 2:34 PM
 

simplykristi said:

It's pretty warm out there, Scott, for this time of year.  It's too early to see those kind of dewpoints.  

Kristi
February 4, 2008 2:34 PM
 

Braysmama said:

Thought about getting the four wheel drive full, nah, no need to.:)
February 4, 2008 2:36 PM
 

MelissaLG said:

New Blog!
February 4, 2008 2:36 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Just in case, it is bad in the afternoon.  

Kristi
February 4, 2008 2:37 PM
 

kane1970 said:

No one has said the horrible word yet. Let me be the fist.
If you are going to inact Weather Law #20080204a I suggest I write it. It would be very simple to write. Here is a preview.


Weather Law #20080204a.

1. DOME
2. DOME
February 4, 2008 2:37 PM
 

simplykristi said:

It should be forbidden to type the following words "dome" and "dryslot" in this blog. :)

Kristi
February 4, 2008 2:41 PM
 

Jayhawk said:

Hasn't the NAM been wrong all season?  It's not a DOME, it's the Tonganoxie split, as one of my favorite retired weatherman, Dan Henry, use to call it.

Don
February 4, 2008 2:41 PM
 

simplykristi said:

The NAM has usually been way off.

Kristi
February 4, 2008 2:51 PM
 

kane1970 said:

New blog!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
February 4, 2008 2:53 PM
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