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could this finally be our shot?  I hope so.  Waiting for the GFS!

Gary come on...what a tease that was  lol

I sure hope drexel isnt left out of this storm too!

Gary do you think the heaviest part of the snow will be to the east of KC!! this is what im seeing on the NAM!!!!!!!

Anybody still thinking accumulations over two or three inches?  Thought about getting the four wheel drive filled up, but for only a couple inches there's no need to take it to work tomorrow afternoon.

No one has said the horrible word yet. Let me be the fist.
If you are going to inact Weather Law #20080204a I suggest I write it. It would be very simple to write. Here is a preview.


Weather Law #20080204a.

1. DOME
2. DOME

-----------------------------------------
Of course no I here that there is A NEW HOPE!
YES. 5"-8" thats my guess we will see.

Wow that is a lot of moisture.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif

I'm thinking no more than 2 inches.  I base this on nothing other than how this winter has gone.  

I can't believe how much warmer KC is. Is 43 the highest we will get?  What will that mean for us when it comes to precipitation?  

Hasn't the NAM been wrong all season?  

It's not a DOME, it's the ol' Tonganoxie split, as one of my favorite retired weathermen, Dan Henry, use to call it.

Don

The watch mentions a "large portion of Kansas ..... Northern Missouri".  Does this include all of the KC Metro (from KCI to Harrisonville)????  Also, what makes this scenario any different than the one we experienced last week?  

Gary just a wild question----Why is the winter storm watch all around Shawnee and Douglas county? What is not there that is not including us?   I have never seen one like that before?  Thanks, Michael/Berryton

Michael,
Might be that Topeka changes its forecast for your area if the models indicate it.  

Kristi  

Homerun, Topeka NWS probably hasn't yet issued their watches/warnings.

;a horivn[0[]16A JWER[95TQQMw$^*A3 ;Va#^ 7B9PAWLN

Call it a Dome, Call it the ol' Tonganoxie split.  I call the the Kansas City donut hole.  Every time you see a nice storm you happen to see a nice little hole right over good ol' KC.

;a horivn[0[]16A JWER[95TQQMw$^*A3 ;Va#^ 7B9PAWLN

Advisories for Douglas and Shawnee are under the Topeka office's control. They probably just haven't finalized new watch areas as quickly as KC did. I'd be surprised if the watches and advisories don't end up lining up better than they do now.

YES! FINALLY A GOOD SNOWSTORM! I wont be able to see the newscasts tonight until 10 so can you tell me how much Parkville will get?

kane, you talkin in a different language now? What the heck does that mean?

Thanks Kristi and Nastyweather--that is true---sometimes Topeka NWS doesn't update until after 4 pm.  Sure is unusually warm today but a good day for a walk!---Michael/Berryton/ Topeka

These temperatures are CRAZY!
The front has now moved back south and is through KCI
KCI dropped from 67F to 57F in one hour.
40s are found for St. Joseph and points north.
In KS Manhattan is around 50F, but Concordia is down to 39F
Meanwhile, it is near 70F in JOCO
What a weird weather day!
Let the snow games begin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't remember Gary actually posting the NWS Watch verbatim onto the blog before.  This leads me to believe that Mr. Lezak is in agreement with the NWS, which in turn leads me to believe this snowstorm is for real.  Hmmm.........

homerun,
The cold front is moving south. The temperatures just to the NW have dropped 15-20F. Concordia is down to 39F with a north wind at 20mph.

I agree with u nastyweather!!

I agree with u nastyweather!!

I think with the 12Z GFS and 12Z NAM in fairly good agreement less than 48 hours out that this snow WILL HAVE TO materialize in some shape or form. Even if the storm is not as intense as the models are projecting we have to get something out of this.
The cold air is not that far away. I am sure that uninformed people will be surprised by tommorrows drastic turnaround.

Still 73 here in beautiful peculiar.. looking forward to all the updates and crossing my fingers we "don't get fooled again" ...hey that would make a great song title ;)

NWS talking rumbles of thunder with this storm......gotta think there will be a pretty good dryslot somewhere with this system.  Question is will it hit the Johnson County KS to Jackson County Mo track like it has most of the winter. I have had one storm that has produced as much as 2 inches this year eveything else has been one of those pesky 1 inch varieties or worse. Hoping for the best here in Independence but will only get excited at 6-8 hours out if Gary and the weather team say its time to get excited.

...wait for the gfs...

PatsSoxCelts,
A few inches at least looks like a VERY good bet right now.
WSW is in effect for your area by the NWS>

inlimbo,
The cold front has moved through KCI with a 10F temperatures drop last hour. Enjoy the warm air because it won't last much longer. Winter is making a comeback for sure.

The GFS has A LOT of snow. I am going to walk my dog, its 70 degrees here in Parkville!

by the way, its down to 50 at the fort.  

71 in sedalia waiting to see what will happen

Ok I said a 10-14 incher for STJ with other higher amounts many times on this BLOG. .  need to wait and see where we are at 9:30 to nite. . TWO things it has slowed from early Tuesday to late Tuesday morning into the wee hours of Wed so this thing will have some duration.

For up here it is still 45 degrees.  As the cold comes in we do not have as far to drop unless we warm up later on [ground is still cold as well no sun yet].  We will be all snow; KC will have SLT that will cut down on totals.  We have .75 moisture with 30 falling into the mid to low 20s we can get 6-8 easy throw in one or two hours of convection and we get 10-12.  KC 6-10.
Ted

Thanks Central...It has been nice getting outdoors and enjoying this warm day... I had to bribe my dogs to get them to come back inside :)
We have a while to wait on this final solution but with all the moisture in place it is looking promising. If nothing else this winter hasn't been dull. Its fun to look at the maps and chatter and see what everone thinks...

pvt_murphy,
Thank goodness the cold front is almost here! I dislike these extremely mild days in February because it is just annyoing when you know the temperatures are going to drop 40-50F in a span of 24 hours.

stjoeattroney,
I agree for the most part, but the cold air will be overtaking the entire area fairly quickly. It all depends on where the heaviest band of precipitation sets up.
The cold front has already moved through KCI and northern Kansas.

The front is moving thru earlier than forecasted.

I will watch the news at 5 and 6 to see how excited Gary is.  I may miss the news at 10 due to watching the MU - KU game.  

Kristi

GO KU!!!

I think this current front is not the main show of colder air. That's still back up in Montana.

Wait a minute-Gary's AGREEING with the NWS? Most of the seasn the NWS has been way off on these storm's. I still say the worst is north and west of KC and southeast of the metro near nothing.

There should be no suprise about the QPF this storm will produce.  It has been a very strong trend.

See below...

24-Aug 0.79 17-Oct 2.04 10-Dec 1.10


Now, this storm is a bit late, but the same one in this series.  By rights, it should have been here on Feb 2/3rd.  It is a bit late.

Gary noted last week that the pattern shifted a bit, and this is the result.  The Jan 31st storm was two days late, and this storm is two days late.  The shift happened somewhere in the warm streak proceding the Jan 31 storm.

It does look like we get back in track as this storm passes.

This is simply amazing.

Wasn't someone on the blog talking about a major snowstorm on Feb 5? Am I mistaking?

GO MU! I will be watching the game so i wont see the 10 pm newscast. M-I-Z-Z-O-U!

Newest NAM seems to shift the bullseye even further, now S and E of KC. It also seems to hold onto rain a little longer. Not sure if I'm squinting at the maps correctly.

Go KU!!!!!! Go snow!!!!

RDUB-that was the 18Z runs...they are usually a little unreliable.

Go KU!! Go snow!!!

GFS ROLLING OUT!!!

I can feel it. It is our turn to get nailed with snow.

I know the off-hour (6z, 18z) runs aren't as good but it does follow the trend that was already setting up...plus there's the whole issue of whether the NAM is worth believing or not.

Go GFS!!!!

No question as to where my allegiance lies..  Go Jayhawks! :)

Kristi

I think Scott said something about Feb 5.

yay come southeast heavy snow!!

this could be good..

I am sure this is the december ice storm when we had 2 inches of rain!

I think Harrisonville won't get missed this time...

I can't wait for Gary's snowfall forecast map.

its crazy outside! its 71 degrees here!!!

didn't you guys up your high for today 10 degrees?

I am liking the model trends...but will they be right? I hope so!

Brent

we need the cold front to come in faster!!!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=winterwx

Take it with a grain of salt.

Hi again Bloggers and Gary---someone go to the Topeka NWS and maybe it is my computer but seriously the winter storm watch surrounds Topeka and Lawrence.  Maybe they forgot to color in the boxes or something wierd is happening.  Michael/Berryton  :(

I was in Springfield Mo. I believe in 1979 when we had over 20 inches of snow from 4:00PM - 6:00AM. Kids were 4 & 7 yrs old. We stayed up all night and watched the snow. Whole city stopped for three days. Army Reserve came out and picked up us hospital personnel in Militery Transports. If  you haven't been through a 20 incher you haven't lived. Now everytime Gary says it going to snow I go to the grocery store. Bring the snow on !!!!

WSW for one to two inches of snow??

Topeka is going to issue a WSW, be patient. Their afternoon discussion is out and they say they are going to issue the watch.

WOW THE GFS HAS EVERYONE GETTING BLASTED!!!  Only up to 30 hrs,but I can see snow here for at least 4frames!!!!!

Topeka calls their own shots and not Pleasant Hill.  Someone mentioned they usually get up around 4.  Don't worry, you'll have the opportunity to have your hopes for a big snow crushed as well.

Hi Mciahel,
Considering Topeka NWS is forecasting up to 5 inches of snow...  I bet one of the following will be issued:  snow advisory, winter weather advisory (if any freezing precip mixes in), or a blowing snow advisory.

Kristi

I like the nws graphic...but when have they been right?...I trust Gary.

I LOVE the 7 day!!!!
3 storms highs in the 20's,.... snow!

wonderful!

It looks like a wet storm system next week!

WSW for Douglas and Franklin.  Topeka finally filled it in.

And now Topeka and all points west are in WSW

WOW is all i can say about the GFS.. IF AND I MEAN IF ITS CORRECT THE SNOW TOTALS WIL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. Up to 48 hrs and it has SEVERAL HRS OF .5 of precip with acouple of hrs with 1-1.5!!!

Hi again Bloggers and Gary---someone go to the Topeka NWS and maybe it is my computer but seriously the winter storm watch surrounds Topeka and Lawrence.  Maybe they forgot to color in the boxes or something wierd is happening.  Michael/Berryton  :(


SAD BUT TRUE........ I HATE WHEN THAT HAPPENS!  In these type situations, believe it or not those counties not colored will be the ones in the heavy snow warning when it happens.  - When I get home I could color in the counties for you, LOL......... INSOMNIA here we go!
homerun said:

Please, please, please.  I watch this blog constantly in the hope of a major storm.  I disect everything being said and I hope, deeply hope, for snow--lots of snow!!!!  

Fire Dog, the noaa most likely has it correct.... except for the round dry slot smack in the middle of the heavy snow, you know, the four letter "D" word...the dome.  btw, roooooccckkkkkk challllllkkkkkkkk, Jayhaaaaawkkkkkkk,  K Uuuuuuuu  I can already hear the chant at the end of the game.  So sorry MU fans!

We had an upper 60s/low 70s degree day followed by a horrible ice storm less than 48 hours later.  This happened in KC in late Jan. 2002.

Kristi

Well we are due, and suprising the NWS is catching on to what lezak said...
we will see snow tomorrow i really believe this one.  Probably not a foot but its going dump!

GARY PLEASE INPUT ON THE GFS.!

THUNDERSNOW.......  I cant wait.  It needs to go right up the middle this time
for Olathe NE.  No more 2"r's!!! Those are ok but im ready for the MONSTER!

I really like the GFS, even using a bland of both models give us all a very good chance for 6+ inches of snow. WOW.  Lets hope this keeps up.

I really like the GFS, even using a blend of both models give us all a very good chance for 6+ inches of snow. WOW.  Lets hope this keeps up.

Fascinating- 49F at KCI and 67F at Downtown airport.  Almost a 20 F spread in half the city!

I noticed the NWS had Bates and Henry counties in a WWA and the NOAA graphics look like we will see freezing rain and sleet. I want snow - not ice! Come on cold front - Mama needs a new coat :)

LOL this is hilarious...all of us bloggers are getting each other excited.... thinking about the possibility of a foot of snow....then Gary will have to come on and bring us all back to reality with the 3 to 5 expected....

but it is fun to hope...but that just makes me dissapointed when I get all rain..or one inch of snow.

Brent...where did you see "thundersnow"  mentioned?  YES!!!!!

Current temp. in Lincoln, NB  35* Winds NW 10

Looks to me like some of the "blasting" from the GFS is rain, not snow. The 540 line is still north of KC during some of the heavy precip frames.

S N O W
& LOTS OF IT*************************
CROSS FINGERS AND HOPE FOR THE BEST!

70 degrees here in SE KC wow!  Does anyone know what the record for today is?   I was out earlier finally taking down my Christmas lights and there are tulips and daffodils poking out!  Forget the snow......come on spring!!!

10"

I am going to say that we in Greenwood will get 1-2 inches of snow. The problem is how quickly the temps will drop to support snow. I will bet we get much more rain/sleet than snow around here.

Brent-NWS has us geting less than 2" of snow! We are not going to get the "big" snow this year I'm afraid....

Even with the prediction of bad weather last week, the day before the forecasted store, the customers in my store weren't in a hurry. They had a calm look about them. As we know, the storm went poof.

Today, no one has time to stop & talk, just in too big a rush. Very busy for a Monday, with lots of hypnotic looks on their faces. Its the same look I saw before the big December storm.

Could this be part of the LRC, oh Snow God?

One word.. ****POOF****

Three words... *** JOHNSON COUNTY DOME****

The 540 line is barely north on the area while the 850 line is WELL south.  I think the Warm air alloft is going to be TOO thin to really make a difference.

Gary its 68 degrees here in Belton!!!! i started to sweat like i do in the summer.

brian1234 - you are depressing me! LOL

Good late afternoon weather team!! How are you all doing-what a day-heck, what a past 10 days lol!!!! Hope things are going well!!

Just a quick observation: the front has now passed through SW Lawrence-winds are beginning to gust out of the NW and you can feel the changes!!! Just to show how freaky I can be, I printed all the surfce observations from 10:00 A.M. till now just to have a record of the proegression of the front-pretty cool stuff!!!!

Looking at the water vapor imagery that ULL I think is already getting its act together-to me, one of the coolest things is how far it dug into California-so similar to the ULL of 12-9-just amazing stuff!!!

I'm out due to commitments tonight for a while so there will be no more random blogs about the surface observations LOL!! However, when I get back, this may be a late night!!! Fun times!! Gary, let's get one here!!!!

Bill in changing weather Lawrence

I believe the models are underestimating the cold air it should be plenty cold when the heaviest part moves thru.

That's the reality marlina

NWS has a mix during the day Tuesday, changing to snow Tuesday night. Rain/sleet/freezing rain would cut down on accumulations, but also make driving worse.

Remember, back in December, nobody thought it would get above 30 during the ice storm in KC...and it got above freezing here.

"Braysmama said:
Brent-NWS has us geting less than 2" of snow! We are not going to get the "big" snow this year I'm afraid...."


where did you get that?
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=winterwx

it looks like the heavier precip is to the south and east now.

Brent-I just checked the "forecast" about ten minutes ago and it had a half inch during the day and one to two inches in the afternoon and evening.

If you follow NWS' forecasts like I do, you will see that NWS offices in both Topeka and KC have really upped their snowfall totals.

Kristi

considering the temps have been very cold last week, the 70 deg warmup we had today won't really have much of an impact of the cold fron apporaching. Once the temps fall, it wont take long for the surface to get colder again. Of course keep in mink that it depends on what kind of precip falls first. If the air temps are warm enough to keep the temps above freezing then it will take that much longer for snow to accumulate. The rain will keep the ground temps warm.

And this is from the 12Z run.  It is a little light...

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/graphics/MAV/

Ok Brent-checked again and it has 3" to 5", but still doubt it comes true.

My prediction.  We'll have the moisture in place, but the temps will remain high enough so that most of what we get will be rain.  

This blog is great!   everyone is so pumped up about a snow storm that is still 24 hours out. It's like the weather folks can't cry wolf enough to stop the bloggers!  Which is great because we can all dream a little I am just a little to beat down this year by 2-6 inch forecast that struggle to get me 1 inch. Allthough all the maps look like this is a can't miss, I am still waiting until 6:00 in the morning to try and figure out if we will get "THE BIG ONE"

Should have played golf today

but if cold front slams in hard, before the preip starts, the the surface tems are primed and then the ground temps will stablize, so when the precip falls, you will either have an ice event, or a wet snow with big fat flakes.

or of course the dry air will dominate and wash up out again. therefore.....
*** poof****

***JCD***

Well, I want to wait to see what Gary is going to say.  BTW  TIME FOR A NEW BLOG!

Weird.  Just north of Basehor I was out playing with my daughter, enjoying this beautiful day and thinking how nice it was that the wind wasn't cold.  All the sudden it got really windy--and the wind was cold.  The temp at 3:25 was 67 degrees.  It is now 62 and this is on the south side of the house and falling.  Wow!

It will go poof in the 00z runs. Surprised it's lasted this long.

68 deg at 300pm in Liberty 50 deg right now at 422pm in Excelsior Springs. Wild weather this last week.

Hey Scott - what do you mean it is a little light? I see two frames of 4-6 inches each ...

Fire Dog, you do realize Gary goes on TV in 45 minutes, then again an hour later, right? Update won't be until after that.

The Big One...lol

"Braysmama said:
Brent-I just checked the "forecast" about ten minutes ago and it had a half inch during the day and one to two inches in the afternoon and evening."

ROFL who?

I can't rule it out...but I just watched the 4 pm weather and they showed Harrisonville as being on the edge of the 6 to 8 inch totals...but I'll wait for Gary...lol

If only we actually got a 6+ i dont wanna go to school so im hoping and praying but i still have a game at Santa Fe. tomorrow o well we've lost to them once i hope 6-12 my view cause it seems to track a further south =] our turn

Well, I would, but I am at work so I cant see the news until 10pm

FD, what I mean is, Gary doesn't have time to update the blog at 4:30...

Whoa-NWS has us at 90% chance of T-storms tomorrow?

yup he's busy analyzing the data to give us an accurate forecast!

Brent-the forecast I saw was from NWS, however now it's at 90% chance of t-storms changing to snow with 3-5 inches possible. I know what "forecast" you saw-LOL LOL LOL!!!

I know, i am just saying he usually updates the blog after the 18z runs and right before his 5pm newscast.

Havn't you people learned anything from this year's winter weather cycle??  A dusting!!! lol that's all we get if anything. And if you read my last entry, I said it depends if the precip starts as rain or not.  It will help keep the ground warm and prevent any precip from accumulating.  the more rain we get initially the harder the ground has to work to stablize the temps to allow for accumulation!!!

This is a lot of moisture.  1"+ this can't be correct, but I sure hope it is.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p48_048m.gif

I think moisture amounts will be decent but some of it will be rain or the dreaded ice. With a couple inches of snow on top, maybe.

Brian,
One day of warmth is not going to do much to warm the ground up.  There's all kinds of condensation on concrete that is in the shade because the ground is colder than the air temp.  

Everyone,
The temps will fall rapidly once the front comes thru.  The temp at KCI was 67...  At 4, it was 49.  Looks like the front has moved thru downtown KC.  The wind is from the NW as of the latest observation.

Kristi

what a front!!

Wow who called it for a second straight time.

I have said 5-8 inches of snow for the past 2 storms. the first one wrong and now this storm will bring that much to the kc area

OOPS The temp at KCI at 2 was 67.  At 4, it was 49.
\
Kristi

Vote Early!

Why do I think lots of the current bloggers will go into hibernation or something when the snow season ends and not re-appear until next December?  LOL  Forget the snow, bring on the thunderstorms!!

kristi,..

THAT'S WHAT I JUST SAID, WHY DON'T YOU READ WHAT WAS WRITTING BEFORE YOU REPLY.

I won't...  I follow severe weather.

Kristi

Well, if this winter has been any indication of whats spring and severe weather season is going to be like, IT WILL BE A WILD RIDE FOR SURE!

I like severe weather too...and I report rain totals and pictures of severe storms sometimes.

snow's my specialty though...lol

Brian, settle down! Have you not figured out yet that sometimes nothing new is posted when one goes to post, then when you refresh, there might be 4-8 comments posted at one time.

ACTUALLY  if the winter weather pattern is any indication of the spring weather, then that will suck too. Stroms breaking appart right before they reach us, no sirins, no excitement, no video to shoot, no photos to take, nothing significant,..  if this current trend keeps up,.. then the sproing weather will suck too.

kelly

my posts were a few posts ago,. so,. example number two of people trying to be smart without reading first.

lol sproing... I ment spring of course, of course nobody reads my posts anyway so what was the point...?  of yeah to be smart and correct me.

Brian,
Your remark to me was pretty rude and out of line.

Kristi

44 degrees in Parkville! wow that changed fast! NWS has us getting 4-8 inches. This storm is not going poof.

OFFICIALLY from the 18Z GFS

Extreme eastern Kansas

.35 to .60 inches of QPF when thickness levels are 540mb or lower.

I am thinking 4-7 inches of snow with some sleet/rain to start out.

Brian, obviously, you are young. One normally can not post and have it pop up on here immediatly..I

brain1234..i've noticed over the past month or so you are very defensive...just chill realize that there is lag time and not everyone reads every post right away...

:) *hopes for snow*

Brian don't you know there are alot of simplykristi fans in here... watch out

I think each run is going to have the bulls eye in different places.

lol lets try not to argue...

there's always got to be one dog peeing at the party, doesn't there Brian?

Now Now Children we dont need fighting.

Were just all excited about getting 5-8 inches of snow and im laughing at clinton and all the people that will miss out of this big storm

Cant wait till opening Day

Relax Brian, you're getting a little too defensive...

WOW:
The 18Z GFS has a monster 1044mb high developing in west-central Canada during the 5-7 day time period. It will likely affect the Midwest and Upper Midwest, but it could be something to watch for us in the Central Plains.

"Debi said:
Vote Early"

And Often

WSW WATCH is in EFFECT:
The NWS had better not mess up this time!!!!!!!!!!!
The previous winter storm had a horrible forecast 6 hours in advance.

I predict 4-7 inches for the KC metro area.

It is going to snow 8 inches in Parkville! Yes! I hope all of you get your share too. and chfsfan328, GO RED SOX!

lol Hushpook: "vote early...and often". Very good :-)

bring on the snow; hold the freezing rain please.

Hi again--Gary and many thanks to the rest of you--I wasn't too panicked per say but sometimes Topeka NWS is a little slower.  I see the whole quadrant is now covered.  I realize too the other coloring was coming from Wichita's NWS.  Well this should be an interesting one to watch!   I hope everyone gets something out of this storm.  That is why being a life long Kansan--the saying wait a while and the weather will change here, is the truth.  This year's cycle has been amazing.  Just like 59-60, very similar.  Take care, Michael/Berryton/Topeka

All ready down to 44 at KCI.

I'm sorry kristi,. would you like a cookie?

temps fell 10 deg in the past couple minutes by the way.

Yea Im 15 years old and have been right 2 weeks in a row with what the nWs have for our area. 5-8 inches. Now Gary is doing the weather

Stormdog here - What a wonderful, lovely day - sun, warmth, light winds - perfect!
And yesterday, lots of rumbles of thunder - glorious!!!

Now, the winter weather folks get their turn, in some fashion - what a storm - look at Flagstaff - 2 ft near there or more!  I used to live there in 74-76 - saw two two footers - beautiful on the pines and firs.

BTW, one person indicated that Spring weather would not be much - I am afraid that will be totally wrong - I have seen a pattern like this in the years of  78-79 - not much in OKC during the winter, but the abundance of vigorous systems moving through began to yield thunderstorm fruit later - it will be an active Spring - 20 years of chasing, and 40 years of observing weather I believe give my opinion some merit.  Of course, that is just my gut feeling.  Let's all give our opinions without getting out of line with each other, please, cant we all just get along?  Thanks all.

Sincerely,
The Dog

chfs327 is 15?

chfs327, I don't recall your name coming up about anything having to do with you or your age.

Brian, grow up and have some respect! This is a weather blog, not for showing your anger. We are all trying to figure out what the weather is going to do and listen to others input.

Im 20 years old. But still chfs327, that is really young!

kelly. dont hate.

Brent I am 15 years old born 12/17/1992.

Live in Olathe.

Yea I have gotten the past 2 weeks correct but the first storm wasnt there
Now this Major storm will have a big effect on KC area for schools business, churches, and overall Traffic. And so what if im 15. Im just as excited for snow as any of you and this storm might just have its shot.

Yet Im Young but ive got college figured out.

GARY IS ON

15 yours old is young but not young enough not to have an opinion, continue to speak your mind chfs327.  It does count.

LOL, I knew the heaviest precip would not be south like what was being said all morning! Thats why I said the things I did this morning with such confidence! I think even this after noon some were saying the heaviest would be south..Sorry, not gonna happen. WooHoo!

2-5 inches gary

I am trying to figure out why the weather team is putting the heavy snow north when the models are showing the entire viewing area even down a couple of counties south.....

This might be the big one

---------------------

We are just waiting to confirm the track of this storm!

Gary

LOL LOL LOL!!! South side get's left out again!! Look's like we may not see more than a half inch down here!! Not really surprised.

that explains you betting 20 dollars on getting 5 to 8 inches of snow twice...lol
I would have won last time around.

If I've learned anything about weather...its not ever to bet on snow totals!  lol

Brent-hope you didn't get your hope's up on the other forecast of 6-8 inches....look's like we get less than an inch!

I am going to go out on a limb and say 4 inches for Harrisonville!

like I said over an  hour ago..

**POOF***

***JOHNSON COUNTY DOME****

More like Harrisonville dome.

Brent-it look's like more of an ice event for us-it would be nice to see the four inches of snow instead.

When Gary said this morning that KC looked to be in the bulls eye, I laughed and said "NO WAY" not gonna happen. I did change my plans from tomorrow night until Wed morning, looks like everything should be fine down south here.

Tomorrow for Harrisonville I see a cold and wet day.  I'd be very surprised if we get more than 1/2" of snow.  Temps probably around 34.

More like Johnson county Mo dome

Look's like I can keep my plan's for tomorrow. Weather don't look all that bad down here.

Oh by the way,. the NWS no longer stands for Nation Weather Service.  It should now be known as..

NWS... No Winter Storms

or       No Weather South

anyone have anything better? I'm open to ideas.
         

I am not at all convinced about this storm yet - at least for here in Topeka and maybe KC as well.  The 18Z NAM nudged the heaviest precip out of Eastern KS for the most part.  This could be a trend since we are still at least 18-24 hours out.  The NAM pretty much nailed the last storm being well south of here.  The models have not been consistent in where the heaviest precip will fall. Not ever much of a closed low at 500mb. I'll be waiting to see the 00Z models this evening.

I have been in winter storm WARNINGS before where I didn't see one snowflake fall.  There's just something about this storm I don't trust.

Mike

I know Gary, but just based on all the model runs they have been showing the entire viewing area in a lot of snow.  The NAM even went a little more south on the 18z run

WOW:
The 18Z GFS has a monster 1044mb high developing in west-central Canada during the 5-7 day time period. It will likely affect the Midwest and Upper Midwest, but it could be something to watch for us in the Central Plains.

This could get interesting the next few days. The BIG HIGH could take over. 1044mb is STRONG!!!

there ain't gonna be no dome, poof or dry slot this time, i'm sorry to say. this one looks like it's on target. even if gary and team miss this way or that, we're still gonna get hit with stuff. if i had to choose, i'd say let it all be snow 'cause freezing crud isn't pretty. i enjoy most all of the comments posted here and don't get caught up in the pettiness that surfaces sometimes, but come'on... freezing drizzle, sleet and heavy snow creates some real problems and dangerous conditions. try to be a little less self-serving those of you who want snow THAT much.

It had better snow for eastern KS. Cold air moves in there first.
Will the cold air make it in time for west-central MO????

If there are no Winter storm warnings issued by 2morrow morning im gonna call the NWS office in pleasent hill and ask them to quit there jobs and let Gary Lezak be the head

MikeTrainor1,
It looks to be a fairly quick transition to snow once the cold air moves in during the day tommorrow. Eastern Kansas looks to transition to snow a little faster.

Maybe I'm the only one who is concerned about this, but from watching Gary's graphical forecast for tomorrow, I'm concerned about the amount of ice we're going to receive.  Everything seems to be focused on how much snow we'll receive, which I hope is a lot, but what about the freezing rain?

I think the Mix will tend to be more of a sleet/snow mix than Freezing Rain and it will quickly change to all snow

Impressive.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/state/MO.AVN.htm  - 18z

Focus on the Q12 amounts.

CentralOP - That high will bring us the expected colder temps in this streak.  Right on time.  That may be the last one for the winter however...but we will see it again in the Spring.

chfs327 - not sure Gary would take the paycut.

LOL

I have a feeling this storm is gonna get dry slotted and the mechanism will go bye bye

Have you been watching the coverage on the snow in China? Basically a month of snow. I just want 1 day of 3-6" please!

Lol Scott

yeah it sounds like a long period of freezing rain south maybe?

Why do people make comments about being dry slotted?  

Annoying

Im playing Poker right now to think about this storm,

Scott what am I looking at for Q12?

I had the same question.

....hoping for less than 1/2" in Paola, please, oh please!!!!!!....

cause we all know how storms are aroud here, stuff always happens, I am a realists.

centralop2, yeah, i'd like to think that, hope anyway! i'm sure there are some on this blog who have long commutes, probably longer that mine (so i'm not complaining), but i absolutely hate driving in any stuff that falls below freezing! and it really does create issues for others far beyond my little world.

anyone got a good tire recommendations? i'd go for windshield wiper recommendations too! anything to with buying rubber for the car, i'm a complete idiot despite whatever research i do! LOL....

Kansas City NEVER gets heavy snowstorms like the Midwest does.

I DONTTTTTTTT KNOWWWWWWWWWWW

We are just waiting to confirm the track of this storm!

Gary

Gary said this under my other post. This means when the track is confirmed then they will be bigger snowfall totals

I'd welcome another ice storm or majoy winter event. And if you dissagree with me, then before you decide to reply, think about this. Deep inside you want chaos, we as a society depend on it. We want the mass amount of damage and drama as possible. This relates to everything from reality TV to how much snow we get. We all crave it.  Don't kid yourself. Think long and hard about it.  

I would love as much snow and ice as this weather system is willing to put out. However our storm systems have not been this impressive these past couple years.  So I coined the phrase Johnson County Dome.  Hopefully that may end soon.  I'd love to see the kids have a couple snow days to play.  However the reality is  not much will happen this time either.


lol.  "there ain't gonna be no dome"  wow lol...

Scott-- what is the Q12??

Thanks-JP

LOL - sorry..I get ahead of myself sometimes.

Q12- http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/mavcard.htm

QPF totals.  It is the raw data.

WHoa! nice extended forecast, Im waiting to watch you on tv, hopefully before kids get home....Tom and Jerry every night ughhh.  I really hope we have a blizzard, I need something to cheer me up, found out mom had lung cancer spread into spine, not a happy person right now, so im hoping for the beauty of snow and when it gets here im going to have a few and just go sit in it.  
Sorry... that was depressing. Can't help it.
Hope everyone is having a better day then what people deal with when life gets sad.

brian1234 - not to burst your JCD, but this concept has been around far before your self proclaimed discovery.

Fun to read anyway.  ;-)

There are legitimate reasons people think the KC Metro is going to get missed by this storm, which is why I'm still cautiously optimistic about what's going to happen, even with Gary's forecast.  Honestly, I'll believe in this storm when I see it on radar, because the models can be misleading.

Thanks Scott- am I reading it correct over 2" liquid??

WOW

"brian1234 said:
I'd welcome another ice storm or majoy winter event. And if you dissagree with me, then before you decide to reply, think about this. Deep inside you want chaos, we as a society depend on it. We want the mass amount of damage and drama as possible. This relates to everything from reality TV to how much snow we get. We all crave it.  Don't kid yourself. Think long and hard about it.   "





I am confused...do you mean this ?

New blog guys

this is the ice storm of december 10th

we had 2 inches of precip then...this looks exactly the same to me.

will it turn out to be all ice?...that would be weird...but it would prove the LRC!

------------------

Brent,

It is very related to that storm, and it is looking wetter and wetter, but the exact same thing rarely happens again as you have a different amount of energy and a different surface set up with each storm.

I just think you will get at least the 2 to 3 inches of snow, and possibly more that I have in the forecast, but it still has time to miss us again?

Gary

2" of liquid, where are you seeing that ? That's 24" of snow, I bet we have a sleet storm combo with 6" of snow.

no brent,.. I wrote it for my health.

OK, Gary is ready to be on...........

NICE broadcast GARY, - SHEWWWW  I have a good feeling about this one!  
My forecast SNOWFALL totals:  
1" snow 5% KCI
3-5" 50% KCI
6-8 "60% KCI
8-12" 40% KCI
Olathe:
1" 5%
3-5" 80%
6-8"  40%
8-12" 20%
I am predicting the Olathe area to have the best chance at 3-5" of snow.  Freezing Rain and sleet would obviously change these totals.  I am expecting a period of sleet  and the dreaded freezing rain wth less .10 of freezing rain.  Sleet could be heavy at times but is harder to accumulate.  Thundersnow is possibile for some areas too.  
LOL- I hope we have a FOOT!  We need an Olathe Target!  We won't really know that, until it sets up.  Great confidence in your forecast Gary!  Won't get to see you at 10pm, hope to wake up to warnings and everthing else.  I need it!  

----------------

Thanks!  Let's see if it still looks good in the morning.

Gary

brian1234, you said:
"I'd welcome another ice storm or majoy winter event. And if you dissagree with me, then before you decide to reply, think about this. Deep inside you want chaos, we as a society depend on it. We want the mass amount of damage and drama as possible."

No one can disagree with what you want. You want what you want, obviously. But to state that we all want chaos and as a society depend on it, then I'd have to ask, on what basis do you form THAT opinion? I could raise several questions that go far beyond our little winter event here to test whether you're thinking clearly or not, but that's beyond the scope of this blog and the purpose of this blog. Good grief dude, are you a sociology major? If not, you should consider a 100 level course in it. And that's about as petty as I will get here. man....

Someone in another blog mentioned the winter of 59-60. I remember that winter well. I lived on a dairy farm in the Chillicothe area. Our milk cows knew the storm was comming and got down in a tree line alot a pretty deep ditch. My father got the tractor out and us kids got on horseback and followed the tractor tracks to get the cows out. We couldn't even see the fence post tops. I know it sounds like one of those long ago stories, but I swear it's true and remember it like it was yesterday. We were out of school for several days and there was no way to get town. It was an awesome winter for 4 little farm kids. We had fun sledding and ice skating most of the that winter. Just a nice memory for me...nwmissourigal