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ok. I still say 5-8 inches of snow. and an inch of sleet

Agreed Gary! I have just been waiting for a new blog so we can start fresh. haha

Thank You Gary for stepping in to stop the madness.  We're all giddy like kids on Christmas Eve, so let's not get too carried away with our words.

I am saying I am getting my big snowstorm 14 inches in Blue Springs!!!


:-)

to me this looks exactly like the ice storm we had in decmber...its tracking the same way...same amount of precip...everything...it would be weird if it turned out to be all ice down here...that would prove the LRC!

Gary or Jeremy,

Can you please repost the snow measurement directions that I believe you posted a couple weeks ago????

I think it would be great for a refresher everytime we have snow coming so that the blog can be filled with great and accurate snow measurements.

I'm turning on the TV ;)

I want a kondike bar

I hope you get your 14 inches heavy snow.  That would be great.

Man this storm is a Beast.

Gary How long do u think it would take for the nWs to make the Watch a Warning

If the Models continue with heavy snow in the area this evening then I think they will post Warnings

sorry chfs327, it will either fall appart or not amount to much.  but I'll cross my fingers for 2 iinches of ice and 8 inches of snow.  

I just saw Gary's forecast, he is predicting 2-5" for Johnson County...which means we will get 1 inch. =) Darn! I was really hoping this was our turn...

------------------

Are you using reverse psychology?  If it tracks just ever so slightly farther south then you will have more than this initial forecast.  I never knew that 2 to 5 inches meant 1 inch LOL.

Gary

Im pretty sure it will all come together and get 6 to 8 inches of snow

bring on the rain only...no snow or ice!! I think I will get my wish!!!

we'll all cross our fingers and hope for the best!! I think the kids could use a few inches for a last day of sledding!!

Speaking of bring on the rain and spring. If there is anyone interested in storm chasing this spring or summer let me know. I have all the gear.

Any idea of what will be going on here in Olathe/Overland Park? I have to go to something for school tommorow around 6:00. Do you think they'll cancel the evening activities by then?

Any idea of what will be going on here in Olathe/Overland Park? I have to go to something for school tommorow around 6:00. Do you think they'll cancel the evening activities by then?

I think there will be a wide 4 to 8 broad band with several places getting 8 to 14

Looks like the south will be hosed again!!!!! I can never remember a winter that has been this snow lacklustered!!! It will have a hard time making it to 6 inches for the whole WINTER!!!!!!! And yet areas north will get that just with this one storm!!!!!!  Its sickens me!!!!!!!!!!

You might be ok in the early morning , tracker.  It looks like most of it will happen in the mid to late afternoon right now. I'd say your fine that early.

by the way , the temps have fallen 30 degrees in the past two hours...amazing!!!

adogg, you have me laughing!!

"brian1234 said:
sorry chfs327, it will either fall appart or not amount to much.  but I'll cross my fingers for 2 iinches of ice and 8 inches of snow. "

2 inches of ice would be pretty devastating.
8 inches of snow would be awesome

what's so funny kelly?

Funny but the truth!!! We have a giant snow strainer hovering over drexel!!!

BRIAN1234:

Love to go storm chasing this spring.  I usually go solo and would be awesome.  My email is subby64735@charter.net.  Jim in Clinton

yes it would be brent.

Long time reader, first time poster.  I know we are still waiting for the latest data, but is there a general timeline that has been reported on when we think the changeover might occur?

You dont have to worry about yellow snow here, just yellow ground

Sounds like a plan subby, I've got DV cams, GPS, live radar ect.. Plus I've done this once or twice.  lol

Weather team, I cant watch yor newscasts being in Columbia. : (
I have to rely on these non accurate forecasters.

Do you think Columbia will see any accumulating snows? Or are we too far east?

so whats the big deal with ice brain?
I have a personal attachment to it myself....I consider devastating ice storms so awesome...I really don't want to think that...but I can't curb myself...I don't really like it...lol

I'm sorry...me and my typos...I meant to say Brian.

It did make me laugh though...which is a far too uncommon occurence for me these days.

The political interjection in the previous thread was a joke. Lighten up, Clarence.

Watch this vid, this might be the way we down south get snow, the snow dance!!!

hahaha ice brain!!!

Gary are u still expecting someone to get 10 iinches out of this maybe?

My geuss is that you saw the storm starting to trend southwared, as many others. How much snow do you think we will get and when was the winter storm watch issued?

Glad you know how to entertain yourself brent.

now with us we will have 6-8 inches of snow and an inch of SLEET. 2 inches of Ice would basically make us like China

i didn't expect something as "white and nerdy" coming from someone named adogg

sorry, here is the link       http://youtube.com/watch?v=nbmVAhspQno

i like to hope for a little chaos once and a while.  

LOL....ROFL.....you kids are so so funny, at least there is something to laugh about!!

hey, its so corny its funny!

Temperature in Lee's Summit is dropping like a brick.

brian 1234 i'm in! where you live?

But, Snow can cause travel problems,      
http://youtube.com/watch?v=BM2gLjfE_3Y

"brian1234 said:
Glad you know how to entertain yourself brent."

Indeed

It dropped 30 degrees in a little over 2 hours!

adogg, lol, is that you in that "snow dance" video?

hahaha,no, just some random video

Tried to read some of the forecast discussion on NWS site. I think they speak a different english than I do.
Have to go out to Hutchinsion for work and wondering how far out the heavy snow band is and how it will affect travel between there and KC?

My wife purchased me a Weather Channel 'weather station' unit for my birthday yesterday.  It's been interesting watching the pressure rise, temps fall rapidly and humidity increase.

Now, lets see 10 inches of snow in Lee's Summit - I know PK in LS is probably like my kids - they all want a SNOW DAY!!!

Mike and Jenn

wow some good thunderstorms breaking out toward st louis they have a severe thunderstorm watch includes sw to east central missouri.

Yeah, I saw the thunderheads in the east coming home from work. This storm look like it will be a good one! I just hope NO ice! So Brian  likes ice storms, check this one out!
http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/media/icestorm98/icestorm98_the_worst_e.cfm
Devasatating!

NO thanks!

Kelly

lol

I really do have a good feeling about this one.  I think we will all see a very nice snowstorm tomorrow afternoon.  I dont think were going to have a let down this time.  Gary hasn't had warning signs posted yet!  LOL.  

Gary do you think this storm will hold together this time and do you see it going to the south to put us in the havest snow band this time

Any idea of what will be going on here in Olathe/Overland Park? I have to go to something for school tommorow around 6:00. Do you think they'll cancel the evening activities by then?

Kelly, I saw them too at 430.  Kind of suprising!  Cool though.  Way east.  Not to big, but building.

Lets get rid of the rain and sleet!!! Snow I can handle!!

Brian, yeah I was surprised to see them too. Makes you wonder what Spring will bring.....

Kelly

"Let's all just relax and see how this trends."  Gary

You should have said that earlier in the day!  A lot of people around town are saying that you said 12 inches when it is really two things...

1.  You said up to 12 inches somewhere, maybe. Non-posters who hear it from co-workers/family/friends just think everyone in the viewing area will get 12 inches.

2.  A lot of these wild numbers being thrown up by posters end up being a reflection of you.  "Gary's blog said 15 inches."  Outsiders once again assume this is your forecast.  For those of us that follow your blog, we know the difference between what you are working out in your mind, what the posters are chattering, and what your official forecast is (what's on TV).

For my area, you forecast 2 - 5 inches on the 5 and 6 news.  To me, that's a smidge above the 1 - 4 in which I have not received more than 2 all season.  I'm expecting 2 maybe 3 inches.

People's expectations get so high by posting and reading the blog, that when the low number comes in, all of the sudden you blew a forecast.  Not true.

BTW, very entertaining blogs today.  I love the enthusiasm of the posters and watching folks guess amounts.  I just hope the end result works out for each of everyone. Which is impossible.

SPC has a MODERATE RISK already painted for tomorrow- for quite a large area.

March might be interesting around here based on this years LRC...

I am thinking 4-8" for ALL of the Metro-maybe more-- this thing will have the moisture...as evidence in the past cycles...temps will be in line, both at the surface and above.

Anyone thinking anything different.

NAM ROLLING OUT!

Gary's forecasting only 2" to 5" for JoCo?!  What a let down.  B-O-R-I-N-G.  C'mon, Gary...or Jeremy...or Jeff...or Brett, as Prince would say, "Let's go crazy!"  Right or wrong...accurate or inaccurate...let's have some fun...just this once...go on at 10pm and forecast 8" to 12" for JoCo, KS.  So what if you blow the forecast.  I think all of us snow lovers would prefer you blowing the forecast rather than forecasting only 2".  I mean, having a range that goes down as low as 2" is an insult...you're kicking us while we're down.  Giving us a forecast for a lot of snow at least gives us something to get excited about.  And even if it doesn't come true, hey, we had a little excitement in our lives for a short while.  So go that route.  Don't go the 2" inch route...punching us in the gut.  Give us excitement...give us hope...go on the air for 15 hours straight starting tomorrow afternoon (like that other KC meteorologist did a year or two ago during an outbreak of severe spring weather.  And don't stop with just JoCo, KS.  Put a a graphic that shows 8"-12" for all of the viewing area...from St. Joe to Clinton...from Topeka to Sedalia.  Forget about being certified most accurate just this one time!

If we get the sane amount as the ice storm in December than I say 3-4". But somebody said more than that, so my geuss is 3-8" here in Blue Valley. We probably will get less than 8", 8" would happen if it moved farther south. Do you think i am accurate?

   Byan.

Can you put the snowfall forecast for our viewing area?? My T.V. is not working.

Byan.

Im going 6 inches in Parkville. When will the new blog be?

Hurry up NAM

and can you put the snowfall forcast on. I didnt get to see the newscasts at 5 or 6. I think this one might be it Gary!

------------

We will include our snowfall forecast in the next blog entry.

Gary

Dang, talk about being between a rock and a hard place!  Check this out...I live in Clinton in Henry County.  Just not my day!! LOL Jim in Clinton. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/

new blog after gfs...same as usual.

Any idea of what will be going on here in Olathe/Overland Park? I have to go to something for school tommorow around 6:00. Do you think they'll cancel the evening activities by then?

Ok im going to play it safe again, just like I did with the last storm...Dusting to 2 inches.

Bryan

Needs to get off 24hrs!

what does the new GFS say

 chfs327  the GFS wont come out till 9ish.  The latest NAM is comming out though.

ok so on the latest NAM why when you look at 24 hours it has the 540 line NE of Kansas City? Doesnt that indicate there would be no snowfall? Or do you have to look at something else on it?

---------------

Bryan,

The 540 thickness line (the first blue dashed line) is extremely important for the snow line.  It is well west of Kansas City at 6 PM, which is no surprise to me at all.  The data is coming in and we will analyze it.  The first impression is for this storm to do exactly as I described on the 5 and 6 PM newscasts.  Someone in the viewing area will likely get nearly a foot of snow, but most likely to the north.

Gary

the gfs isnt out for another hour

ok NAM at 30 hours looks good for snowfall!

LOOKING Good as of now up to 30 hrs need it to get to 42.

30 hrs puts the heaviest snow on the Mo/Iowa border...

Ohhhhhhhh, you guys!!!  This just gets me so excited!!!  Nothing is more beautiful than several inches of virgin snow on the ground/street with NO tracks through it!!!

Gosh, that just makes me all giddy inside!!!  Snow falling, a roaring fire, hot spiced rum, a good read, smooth jazz, and someone to snuggle with...

Who could ask for anything more??????

Bryan the thinkness layer is not going to be that thick.  PLUS is already down to  37 at kci and 21 in central NEB.

42 needs to put it in KC

RDUB Im not seeing that. its all across the area.

thats what i was thinking, but i wasnt sure if i was in the right direction. Thanks Firedog

Does the GFS look good for the northland?

any 1 wanna like me to the NAM

36 hours looks good too

YEA at the IOWA/MO border its at 1.75 BUT STILL 1.25-1.5 across the rest of the metro and its not even up to the hrs for the raparound snow.

Nam Looks so good

http://weather.unisys.com/nam/48h/nam_pres_48h.html

Offical 48 hr NAM

BUT ITS GOING TO BE A MESS ACROSS IL, INDIANA,AND OH!

FD, you're not seeing the deep blue up along the IA/MO border...with much lighter green just to the south of KC? in the upper right hand panel? that shows higher precip amounts in the deeper colors.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/fp0_030.shtml

I think this storm may again depend on the amount of moisture pulled into this severe weather outbreak that is going to occur tomorrow down south.

The Weather Channel this PM stated that this may be one of the largest tornado outbreaks of the whole YEAR for OK, AR, TX, MS, AL, TN, KY and S Ohio and Indiana....

That moderate risk is significant!!!  If this action pulls moisture along the front and doesn't allow the moisture to pull out of the gulf and interact with the ULL then we may just have another storm like last week.

Just my thoughts especially with the storms popping east of here now.

PatsSoxCelts  THE GFS does not come out for another 45min.

RDUB look at the 36 HR.

NAM puts the metro in a solid .75 to 1.00 with northern sections 1.00 to 1.25" QPF... if temperatures drop more suddenly and fail to rise tomorrow..................

I just want my 5-8 inches of snow

Then at 36 hrs on NAM the precip has pulled away further north...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p48_048m.gif

heres the 48 hr.

WELL ITS WARMED TO 35.5 BUT THE NORTH WIND  oops sorry for caps. . . like i've been saying this might be the 10-14 incher with you snow starved BRLGGERS down in the big town with 8-5 so don't complain. . . yopu will be cut down on snow by sleet again.  STJ will likely be SN by noon to midnite with sometimes heavy snow...I am at 28.8 in.  Where will I be Wed am?  That is the question!!

Well its up to the 42hrs and has us in the snow for 3 SOLID frames@

my bad Fire Dog. Does the NAM look good for the northland?

STILL in the snow at 42hrs

PatsSoxCelts  I am going to wait for the GFS BUT ID SAY Y E S!

Better north than south for snow, probably. total precip is higher north, and more will probably fall as snow.

For the Olathe Area will we get 5-8 inches of snow

Gary- would the severe weather outbreak ahead of the cold front, forecast for tomorrow, impact our part of the storm?? i.e. reduce snow totals?

lol LRC northside gets hit again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Good question JPnKC...I wouldnt think that the severe weather would impact the winter storm in our area at all, at least based on what the models are saying right now...I guess time will tell though.

Bryan

is thunder snow possible with this storm?

I'm not liking what I'm hearing on the "other" blog.  Making this into a more freezing rain/sleet event with a small window for snow between 11 PM and 3 AM... amounting to only 2-5".  The LAST thing I want out of this is a lot of ICE.  Give me rain, give me T-storms, give me snow... but please... not a bunch of ICE!!

Time for me to sign off, It will happen just like I said all morning. Not much snow to the south-2 inches max, more north, but far north, like st joe. I think KC metro to KCI will see around 4-5 inches, heavier north, especially close to the border. Everyone have a good evening and don't get excited, it's not going to be a big deal, unless there is a lot of ice!

How much does Liberty look to get?

Yeap thunder snow or convective snow 2-3 inches an hr

Well I would love to see a 12" snow hit in Marshall, MO but it seems we are always a bridemaid never the bride. So we shall see what falls. I'll keep my fingers crossed for the big one.

Oooo Oooo me tooo Brian1234!!! I would love to go chasing with you.  I will probably be too busy most of spring with school, but I graduate and will be an officially registered nurse in mid-may!  =)  Do you have a website I can contact you through?  The rumbles of thunder yesterday made me smile and begin to get excited for the spring.  Also, today, I could see the little storms trying to build to the east and, once again, smiled and got excited.  SVR storm to the SE right now too.  

Colder air is moving to the SE faster than the models realize. Subzero windchills are being reported in SD. Temperatures will rapidly fall across the Central Plains over the next few hours.

There was severe weather off to the south and east of Clinton.  

Jim in Clinton, did you see any lightning off to your south and east?

Kristi

The temps have really dropped like a rock.

Kristi

Hey there Kristi!!  My son and I were on the front portch watching the light show to our south.  Just beautiful.....the wind began to chill us out and he had to go bed!! LOL.  Jim in Clinton

Brian 1234... lets get on the road tonight!!!  j/k... if you took it as a joke anyway...  but seriously...

20"

I just talked to my boys who live in Camdenton.  It's 67 degrees there with lots of lightning off to their northwest.  They hit 78 degrees today.  They said it's very humid and definitely feels like a spring night.  Here in SE Jackson County, it's now down to 39.5 degrees.  It was 72 degrees just 4 hours ago.  

Gary, THANKS for leting Me come out today!
All these people wanting lots of snow make me wonder are these people...
  A. Retired
  B. Have no place to go. (like work)
  C. Snow plow operators
  D. Weather forcasters looking for a job
  E. All of the above

Brian1234 and commrades....

It's looks like you can get down to Ark/ok/tenn and get some severe weather action.

--

I'm feeling a lot more rain/sleet/ice for this storm.   Looks like it'll be too warm for too long.

Hi Jim,
I bet you had a great view!  What is the temp down there?

Looks like that storm went thru southern and central  St. Clair County.  Looks like it is northern Hickory and southern Benton Counties now.

Kristi

kcshadow -- I'm "F" -- a transplanted New Englander.  I miss the snow, being able to walk out back in our yard back home and seeing the snow blanket, animal tracks, and just a beautiful backyard.  

kcshadow -- I'm "F" -- a transplanted New Englander.  I miss the snow, being able to walk out back in our yard back home and seeing the snow blanket, animal tracks, and just a beautiful backyard.  

kcshadow,

I think we are romantics and children at heart, willing to endure the inconveniences of snow in order to enjoy the transformed landscape and activities that otherwise would be impossible.  That explains the disappointment when snow that is hoped for doesn't materialize.

It's just so darn fun to play in!

46 degrees here Kristi.  I was outside with my son when my weather radio went off.   Boy, did that get me excited!!! LOL  Looks like our area down here in Henry Co is going to be in between the Severe Storms and the snow....oh well.  I am looking forward to spring thunderstorms....Jim in Clinton

I'm down to 39 in Lee's Summit...it's dropped quite a bit in hte last hour

Weather team do we in Columbia have a chance of seeing  good snow accumulations???

Jim,
I can't wait for severe weather season to start so I can track severe weather.  I don't like when it impacts people's lives and property.  If it is going to impact anyone and their property, I get very scared and nervous.

We were 70 today and now we are in the upper 30s.

Kristi

it will be plenty cold. I am still sticking with my previous prediction of 6 inches in Parkville.

I just looked at the 00Z NAM...
I know I am not supposed to get modelitus, but WOW that run looks so cool for us here...

Heymom,
 wanna have a snow ball war? Build a fort and as soon as the sun is out I'll be there!!

All the people that picked F, sorry thats not an option, move back to N.E.

For once I did not start the controversy!

nwmissourigal said:
Someone in another blog mentioned the winter of 59-60. I remember that winter well. I lived on a dairy farm in the Chillicothe area. Our milk cows knew the storm was comming and got down in a tree line alot a pretty deep ditch. My father got the tractor out and us kids got on horseback and followed the tractor tracks to get the cows out. We couldn't even see the fence post tops. I know it sounds like one of those long ago stories, but I swear it's true and remember it like it was yesterday. We were out of school for several days and there was no way to get town. It was an awesome winter for 4 little farm kids. We had fun sledding and ice skating most of the that winter. Just a nice memory for me...nwmissourigal
February 4, 2008 9:00 PM

when does the GFS come out? is it 9:30?

The GFS comes out between 9:30 and 10.

Kristi

Hey Kristi, I spoke too soon......42 degrees now.  Dropping rapidly.  Jim in Clinton

The wind has really picked up here north of Lawson. I don't have any idea what kind of snow totals we will have here, but looking at everything I am thinking maybe 2-4 inches. I am afraid though that it may sleet a little longer than expected and that could cause some real problems. I guess mother nature will let us know tomorrow what to expect. I am glad the weather team can keep up with her and try to stay a step ahead of her...LOL..everyone have a good evening..nwmissourigal

WOW... It is already getting wild in some areas I guess I just now saw that Severe Thunderstorm Watch and a warning to the south and east!!!
It is kind of interesting, while this area has had alot of active winter weather with some people wondering what "severe weather" season will be like, areas to our east like St. Louis and into Illinois have had MULTIPLE severe set ups over the last month or so including right now, so they probably feel that this year severe weather season not only has already started but is ongoing!!  I mean in the dead of winter you sometimes hear about one maybe two big severe weather outbreaks in more northern areas, (not the south) but to have already had at least two that I can remember, the early Jan. outbreak, and the outbreak they had a week ago with the cold front, but now this one!
Here in St. Joe the air seems to be getting thicker with some fog redeveloping and the wind was also picking up a bit and the temps are now already sliding into the mid thirties!

Impressive lightening occuring to the south of La Cygne. I hope the rain doesn't move in to heavy in the morning.... Ugh, the septic alarm went off. Gotta have the fix-it septic man come out tomorrow. Seems like stuff like this always happens when the weather gets bad. Happened in December of 2005 when we got almost 10 inches of snow. Hope I don't need a new system! I need some warm, dry days real soon.

Has the GFS come out

Hi Jim,
Once that temp starts dropping, it drops like a rock!

Kristi

New Blog

I am hopingto see at least 5+ inches of snow for Marceline!!

Thanks for sharing your snow memory nwmissourigirl!  It was a fun visual and reminded me of ice skating on my grandmothers land when I was young.  Ice skating over the iced over fields!  It was so much fun.  

UGGG. I see Olathes watch has been downgraded, any new thoughts team?  
Looks like a thunderstorm or two head our way?