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ooo first comment very neat lol cant wait to see what the gfs says

so do u think 5-8 inches of snow will happen in Olathe

Im liking what Im hearing! Bring on the 7-10 inches! No ice though. Gary or Jeremy, When will the heavest precipitation fall?

see it happens every time in this crap town

what are you talking about Teamster83, its going to hit us hard.

I am sticking with 14 inches in Blue Springs

So, unless this shifts south a little, the southern half of the metro will get little snow and more rain and sleet?     It is rough watching the precip stay out to the west and never move east.  

channel 4 said 1-3 inches, kctv 5 says 2-4 and now this thing is falling apart quick

nice. knew it was to good to be true anoher reason to hate this one horse town.

Gary - many questions still remain on this storm- thanks for all of the updates

I am NOT liking the potential of ICE- no matter what amount...

See you in about 20 min

This thing is going north again it'ssetting up just like the other big ones. Darn!!!!!!!

Wow! Severe Weather in MO, you got to love Central Plains weather!!

what do you think about Lee's Summit heavysnow were pretty close to Blue Springs

gary,

its down to 33 degrees at the fort.  how are the temps supposed to react to the incoming moisture tomorrow? what kind of diurnal swing are you expecting?  common sense tells me that the high temp for tomorrow will be the midnight temp, which at this rate looks to be around the freezing mark for us up north.  that could translate to some slippery situations earlier tomorrow.  do you still see much if any plain old rain for us on the NW side?

murph

teamster,

Don't listen to them,they don't believe in the LRC,and they have modelitis.

I'm smelling another dusting.  Just call off the warnings now.

actually we have 3 horses in this town now :)    I would wait till its over before you start moaning.

That would be a nice total heavysnow.   I think I will dream about 4 foot drifts tonight!!!  

2-4 through the metro looks about right at this point.    Its all about the track of the low pressure...   either way will shift us out or really in.

2-4  that aint no snow.

Pat. Thats what she said.

Anyway I still say 5-8 inches

I'm going to do the snow dance maybe that will help

well the last time in leavenworth that we had this type of storm we had over 7 inches I'm expecting the same up here this time again.

How can you give up on this people?! The other stations suck, dont listen to them. I still say 6 inches.

hahaha u never know!!!!! The snow dance I found may have real powers!!!!!!!

like the above poster. i smell a dusting

We had about 5" last week and the KC metro didn't get a dusting. The heavier snow started about Sweet Springs to the east of KC. But your right Teamster 2-4 is not much snow.

Missed again, oh well, there's always next year, and then I am moving to the mountains, Buffalo NY or St. Joe MO for snow.  How can we get missed by the big amounts everytime??????

Don  

Its going to snow a lot, I don't give a crap what the others say

We are due for a snowstorm and this one looks like a monster

What the ...., NAM is stronger than the GFS on this one right now....... weird.

I am sticking with Weather Law #20080205a right now.

I think this does have something to do with the "dome" theory. And it may be related to the impact on the environment our urban buildings have - just having that heat from each building releases extra heat into the atmosphere and I would imagine that although it remains surface-based to begin with, that over time and years this does work it's way into the upper atmosphere. I'm not saying this is global warming - well, I guess I am. But essentially I think that causes the atmosphere above the metropolitan area to be less conductive of major snows than the atmosphere of rule areas around here and less populated urban areas (such as St. Jospeh and Topeka). Ever notice how Downtown KC is almost always warmer than KCI airport? It's not 100% because they are further south - the buildings have something to do with it.

the snow dance is a jinx it's making matters worse let's try and find something else lol

f00dl3 I agree the concrete holds heat and puts off huge amounts of it!

Ok if the snow dance runs it off lets tell all the plow operators to take thier equipment off and into mothballs LOL that should work!

You can count that as the GFS bad run, because that run makes no sense at all, the low will not track like that.  

NAM has been more consistent over the past few runs and the cold air will get here quicker than expected

Ill make it rain with 6 20 dollar bills

Hpefully this works

hey, the snow dance is all we have down here!!!!!!

THIS STORM WILL HIT KC NOT NORTH!!!

Gary did not look too excited, he must think the brunt will go north.    I will take 2-4" at this point.

I've analyzed the models.  I'm sorry, I still smell a dusting and think the grass will be covered, but that's it.  As far as the ice goes - I don't know - depends on combination of ground temperature and wind and I can't quite get a feeling on that at this time.  A snow day on Wednesday would be fun - just a fine line right now.

How does the GFS look?

1-3, tops!

lots of ice, transformers popping, power outages, mass hysteria, chaos, gas shortages, rioting,

for christ sakes... it's kansas weather...get a life people....!!!!

3-7 on the north side 2-4 heart of the metro any further south maybe 1-2 St Joe 5-8 that is my thinking.

we'll just hope that we have a better severe weather season for what we didn't get this winter..

I do hope we all get some good snow, I know we're all hoping for alot... I'll keep em crossed!!!

Could you please put the snowfal graphic on the blog, again, i cant watch you, i am in columbia.

Brian, that was awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

who's adding to my posts??

I don't care what you guys say, its going to snow

A LOT

thanks greg ..lol  i love the excitement of sever weather.. although we get the shaft here in johnson county.. it's just the kid in me that wants massive snowfall

Gary, you know that is the one bad GFS model

You know to throw that out

This storm will produce like last time

Am I sensing an ice storm??

Kristi

I hope your UPDATED snow fall totals mean you are UP-ing the totals!!!

Here's my current thinking:

http://photos-a.ak.facebook.com/photos-ak-sctm/v183/73/61/508280943/n508280943_877908_3305.jpg

Added a 5" line. Areas south of that will see less than 5 inches... possibly less than 3.

Heavysnow, if the ULL tracks any farther northwest you may want to change your nickname to "Lightsnow."  Or if the cold push holds off a bit, you may want to consider "Flurries."

I think we will have an icestorm...

Please

Blue Springs is going to be hammered

Have you watched the models?  One bad run happens all the time.... the GFS just had its scratch your head run

Heavy Snow will happen

fOOdl3, you are wrong

Its not going north, I am telling you its not going north

The cold air will move in quite quickly. It is already in the teens and 20s upstream.
The 0Z GFS was absolutely horrible and does not have good run to run consistency.
The 0Z NAM was much better and had KC and points north in a solid snow band.

Or if you want heavy snow, move elsewhere.

"I think we will have an icestorm..."

No, I think Kansas will see snow. Missouri might have more issues because the cold air will take longer to get there throughout all levels of the atmosphere.

hope that theres going to be at least 5" I'm 14 and hoping for no school wednesday and thursday!

OK Gary says its going NORTH!

The models lack consistency in the exact track of the heaviest precipitation. I have no confidence at all in the snowfall amounts now. The GFS is really making me mad at the moment.

Yes, 4 inches for Parkville!

 
brian1234...i take it you don't live in joco :P

i am now hoping for an active spring.

I don't believe the 00z data. It will snow more, I'll be making a Snowfall Forecast tomorrow morning after I've seen the newest data.

Sorry to burst your bubble, KC snow lovers...  Looks like another 1 to 3 inch snowstorm for KC.  Areas farther north will have more snow.  Enjoy the snow, St. Joe and the rest of northern MO. :)

Kristi

Let's see...what does Gary say?  33..34...temps important...1 factor...the cold surge...how much will the cold air get involved...depends on the track...takes storm near KC - most snow north - 6 inches in Maryville, 3 in KC, 2 in Olathe...
33 tomorrow..rain..5pm to 7...freezing drizzle...
Gary saying 1 to 3 inches in KC right now.  
I agree with him - this is a very difficult one to pinpoint as 2 disturbances combine and look to track through the KC area.  Things are changing rapidly as more things are starting to form in Oklahoma and look to be heading for KC.
We'll see!

-----------------------------

Yes, this is not done  yet, but I did not like the new data at all!  But, it still has time to change.

Gary

yes vdoman, i do live in snobsville for all of 9 years...lol how about you ?

ewww i hate the snow totals for Lee's Summit

screwed again.......like usual. Can I say screwed?

Im going to bed. Cant wait to see what the forcasts in the morning. I think it will snow more then expected because of the cold air getting here faster then expected. Good night all! I still have faith for 6 inches!

I am telling you the cold air will not allow that storm to move that far north....

The GFS had been very consistent the last several runs until tonight, its way off

There will be more snow because the cold air will come down quicker as well

***POOF***

**JOHNSON COUNTY DOME****

Hate to do it folks ,. but thats the reality. I've been saying it all season

jackson county mo all the way

Man, 1-3 again!  Blah!  Looks like the kiddies will be going to school.  I want a big exciting snow for sledding and fort building!  

Boo, hiss.  I hate living down south.  I'm moving up north, eh.

I have no confidence in KSHB, any other station, or the NWS until a prediction for "A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO HIT KC" actually comes to fruition.  Enough hype.  I watch your station and will continue to do so but please enough hype.  Sorry for the rant but that is just my opinion.  I realize it won't be the most popular on this blog.

I'm with ya Husky. I'm in SW LS. This winter is going to be a total loss. I can just see the smugness of the Notherners now. Ugggghhhhh!

i hope your right heavysnow,. i love you optomisim,. however i'm more of a pessimist...   but keep it up maybe you'll change it for us!!

well, you know....  I am hoping for at least a good snowpack.  I like what f00dl3 has for Smithville!  Woo-hoo!

temps have steadied out in southern Nebraska as of late...what makes some of you think that the cold air mass is going to project south so quickly?

NWS hasn't even updated their forecast since 5:20PM.  And the watches since 2:20PM.  That is just sad.  Surely they had the same data that KSHB has been looking at?

I hope I am doing this right.  Hi everyone!  I am obviously new to the blog.  I have been reading everyone's comments for a while now.  I find things intresting here.  I don't know too much about those maps and models, though, I have been trying to understand them.  I DO know the Gary is the most reliable.  I also know that everytime I get excited about big totals, they seem to go down.  I have been in Louisiana for the past 6 years and have not seen a GOOD amount of snow for a LONG time.  My 4 year old has never seen a good amount of snow.  So, for his sake, I am hoping for a GOOD amount.  I enjoy reading everyone's comments, and for the NBC weather team, keep up the good work!!

green acres,

I am already the most unpopular person on this site, everyone hates me. So compaired to me,. your awesome. People like you and I speak our minds.  It's some of the other clone drones who feed off of others for opinions, and once you step outside of their point of view ,. your the bad guy,. i got your back..

Heh heh heh.

POOF

Love it!

**poof**

I'll second that

let me guess by tommarow morning it will be a dusting to and inch and then by noon it will be dusting to half inch then by 5 pm when it still has not started snowing it will be dusting if your lucky and by 10 pm it will be no snow in kc and mabe a dusting up north

I how you are right Heavysnow. But the past trends say different. We will see a dusting at best down here in LS. Its inevitable. Mother nature hates us.

Mike in LS

What hype, Green Acres? What should they say when someone in the viewing area is going to get 6-12 inches but they can't yet forecast exactly where? I think that Gary et al have been very restrained all day. It's us bloggers who are going crazy with predictions and wishcasting.

they all look at the same data green acres.  It's like religion. Alot of data out there and everyone has the same resources, but everyone believes different things. It depends what station you watch.  Some call for 5-7 others call for 1-3.  It's all reletive. But the one thing that is constant is that they all have access to the same data.  The question is.. what grocery stores pay for advertising durring the news. Ratings and sales.  Oh and maybe a dusting!!!!

heavysnow,

I hope your right.

This has been sooo frustrating for the metro KC area for awhile.  We have been in this pattern since late last summer, I think.  Remember when all the t-storms would set up to our north and west over NE KS and NW MO in August?

If you watch the weather forecasts on TV, Gary has never hyped the storm.  He has always had the higher storm totals for tomorrow's storm to our north.

Kristi

They will put Winter Storm Warnings up north and Winter Weather Advisory's up for the Metro... and then have to upgrade them to Winter Storm Warnings for the metro when the new data comes in the morning and the now casting starts in the morning....

c'mon Gary, break out the snow vest, wear it with your jammies tonight

I'm a little bummed with the new data too. 5pm I was hoping forat least 4 now we're back to the usual 2 here in Olathe.  I have to comment on the "dome" thing. I used to live in Salina and we believed there we had "The Great Wall of Salina"! Storms ALWAYS seemed to split in half and go either south or north! Sheesh. I think the thing followed me!  Janet

Brian1234 - you are the most hated person because you alone speak your mind? Wow, musta missed that ...

It's only a matter of time until the NWS changes the Winter Storm Watch to a Snow Advisory.  Oh wait... they have to issue a Winter Storm Warning FIRST... THEN change it to a Snow Advisory.  Silly me... what was I thinking??

what about a dry slot i kinda see one

bewild79,

welcome to the blog! lol its fun.

I don't believe speaking your mind on this blog would make you unliked, that would be not speaking the truth.  Not wanting to argue, just make a point.  I have been reading/watching Gary and the KSHB weather team for a while now and comparing to other stations.  If anyone is "hyping" up storms it is certainly not this weather team.  From what I have observed they are the only station that has consistently stuck to their forecast. That is my opinion.

Isn't it interesting how every single storm has tracked farther north than originally anticipated... EXCEPT for the one storm we NEEDED to track farther north.  It went farther south.  Mother Nature truly does hate KC.  I'm sure this same trend will continue once severe weather season rolls around.  

Have faith people... the cold air will not allow the storm to go north

Be ready, we are getting our snow!!

Thanks for moving here, Janet.

The Dragon appreciates your poofiness.

oh and to the guy who keeps saying johnson county dome HELLO jackson county is the same place as johonson county just east we see prety much the same snow totals would it not make more sence to say kc dome this guy sounds like just another rich person in thier big millition doller home who is scared to leave thier rich little county beacouse they might see some one who is not WHITE OH NO!!!! dumb racist johnson county pepole

we wont' hold yo responsible wthrlver,. it's all good.  weather pattens have sucked here for about 3 years

Wow, that Line of T-storms down south really got going!

Thanks Randy!  I am having fun!

Oh PoofDragon, you're welcome . I've lived here 4 years now and I've found it AMAZING how the storms split off--usually I noticed they go north. Phooey, poofy! Janet

The new data is garbage.
If you want decent snowfall move somewhere that is NOT KC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You can't even enjoy winter sports around here like you can in the REAL Midwest.
I have faith that the NAM will increase the snow totals!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The cold surge is moving south from South Dakota.
Mobridge and Aberdeen are reporting temperatures in the teens.
20F air and lower is moving into areas of western and central Nebraska right now.

plz explain to me, heavysnow, why will "the cold air not allow the storm to go north"? i am not aware of the interaction between the two.

KCDe-I think the lack of snow is getting  to your head!  someone always has to play the race card.  Jeez!  Next thing the snow will be racist cuz its white.  

I'm in Kearney, NE right now. Left Platte City at about 11:15 and it was sunny and 67. St. Joe was around 43 and cloudy/foggy. Dropped to the upper 30's by the time we reached Lincoln. Arrived in Kearney, NE around 5 and it was 33. Temps warmed a bit a few hours ago to about 37. Very windy up here. Was very interesting watching the weather/temps change so drastically between KCI and the MO/IA border today. Hoping to make it back to the northland tomorrow afternoon before this thing - whatever it is/does - gets into full swing.

The blogs today were very entertaining. What a day.

Being in the MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY is always a bad thing when it comes to WINTER STORMS around here. I say this time and time again!!!!!!!

KCDewayne - you scare me with your spelling - your makin us look bad my brutha!

From this very blog that you are reading, David

Gary Lezak:

There is a cold surge of air coming down across Nebraska, and if this storm is going to track farther south, then this cold air will push everything southward.  Just a little bit and KC is in this thing.

I hate to look at the LRC in a negative way but come on guys -- the last time we were supposed to have a major Ice storm, it just fizzled out due to temperatures being too warm. People have made the comment this storm is similar to that storm that produced over an inch of Ice in St. Joe. In Kansas City, while it did produce about a half-inch where I live, for the most part was minor, and temperatures got too warm. What's to say that this won't happen again? Sure it's about the opposite (instead of the onset being cold and the end being warm it's the end being warm and the onset being cold) - but I think we are in for another temperature "upset" here in the immediate metro area. Yes, places north of the river could get 3 to 4 inches, and north of the 435 loop is where the action is going to be... but without precipitation, with diurnal cycles, and IF the low tracks right on top of us (possibly)... I think that the temps may actually rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s across the metro and it may stay that way for the whole event - and if that happens, we may not get any snow out of this.

David Sanders,
The colder arctic air could cause the ULL to track a little further south. Either way the GFS looks really bad for snow right now with the NAM looking better. We will have a long time to wait until the 6Z runs come out.

DavidSanders - from what I've gathered from here and there ... sometimes models underestimate the speed of movement of very cold air. That air is quite dense in relation to warm air and once it gets moving it it hard to stop. Doesn't necessarily mean it will happen in this case (because models are pretty robust in their math/physics), but it's something to always keep in the back of your mind.

I thought this blog was about weather.  By the way, not everyone from Jackson County spells that poorly.

Oh, the Midwest CORE never say that warm surge of air today. It just proves how far south in latitude KC actually is.

I have taught elementary aged children for 13 years and we laugh about how big changes in weather effect how kids act.  By the way some are acting here I am thinking we are in for a BIG storm!!!  I hope so anyway!  Great work WeatherTeam!

"I think that the temps may actually rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s across the metro and it may stay that way for the whole event - and if that happens, we may not get any snow out of this."

That really should NOT happen at all. The arctic surge is arriving on schedule in the northern and central plains. Wind chill values are below zero in the Dakotas right now.

I have to wait another 6 hours until the new model runs come out. The subpar suspense builds!

"sometimes models underestimate the speed of movement of very cold air."

The cold air will get here, but I hope the GFS increases the snowfall potential for the METRO area itself.

Hmmm....Gary said he would post at 10:30. He is either really busy or is creating a very detailed update. Waiting patiently...

hey kcdewayne,

I don't know where you got that from.  I'm not rich. If i was I'd buy a snow machine and put  foot of snow in the front of my million dollar home.  but instead I have settle for what mother nature dishes out to me in the courtyard of my townhome complex.

Say dewayne,... le tme axe you a question... why pull the race card,?

Stuff is getting bigger in Oklahoma and heading this way - stay together!

The cold air will keep the low south of KC

MAJOR WINTER STORM TAKING AIM ON KC was the blog title at 9:55AM this morning.  That is hype and it got everyone excited.  Then the data changed for a little less snow and then it changed again for even less snow for the area.  Why not wait until the storm is closer say 6-8 hours out before giving snowfall projections?  Hey I like I said, I like the passion from Gary and his team and will continue to watch their forecasts (and hope someday we in southeast metro get nailed with a foot of snow).  

brian its not axe its aks.....get it strate.

I am waiting for the 11PM obs to see where the real ARCTIC AIR IS. It could be entering most areas of Nebraska now.

sorry about the typo,.. it was supposed to read "let me axe you a question".  Sorry my personal typer made a mistake.  Yeah here in Johnson County, we hire people to type for us cause we're too busy doing other things... sorry folks...

This HYPE seems similar to the LAST storm!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm going to try really hard to be optimistic.  So here it goes.  Last week we all swore the GFS was going to be right and the storm had to track North.  Nope, NAM was finally right and it went south.  This time the NAM says we're the lucky ones.  Who's with me?  NO MORE GFS!  NO MORE GFS!

yup it's all hype, ratings and advertising. But forcasting weather is not an easy job.  These guys don't have an easy job. People plan their events and weekends around what they say the weather is going to do. I wouldln't want that kind of flack,. so don't kill the messenger in this situation.

OK, I am confident on the cold air now. It is in the low 20s in central Nebraska with teens upstream.

RodB,
I agree. I am on the NAM bandwagon now!!!

Green Acres,  I feel your pain on the shifting snow target ... but that headline is still true even at this point. A major winter storm IS taking aim on KC. And it could produce lots of snow, or lots of ice and then some snow. I hope heavysnow is right, but this is a tough area to get big snows, as evidenced by snow climatology.

10 to 12 inches in my backyard?  That will put me just above 40 inches of snow for the winter season.  I am sorry that some of you are getting missed, but we went through about 5 dry years out of the last 6 with about 5 very low snow seasons.  There were several winters where Kansas City and points south received the biggest storms, so I feel fortunate and like it is "our" turn up north to get some active weather and catch up on precipitation.

It's a cycle and next winter could see totally different results for most of us.

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forcasting is a lot of science, a little hope, instinct and some prediction.  But don't call a game before it's over but most importantly ,...don't cry wolf.

This hype is very similar to the last one that we saw pan out to nothing.  However..it was looking good until about 8-10 hours before it hit it just fizzled away.  This one could do the same thing - still too early to tell and predict.  If something big is to happen it will build up from Emporia, need to stay solid, swirl some, then blast us...then another wave come in.  But we still won't know until this time tomorrow.  Stay tuned.

Goodland, KS
25F
Snow, Freezing Fog
North wind 17mph gusts to 26mph

It will get plenty cold to snow around here!
(Evidence Above)

New rule.  All bloggers from St Jo are now officially banned.  Can't take the heartache any longer.

The snow band is definitely impacting NW Kansas right now.
1/2 mile visibility and heavy snow!

what are you having is watch dewayne?? THis is a weather blog, instated to keep us informed about the weather happenings in kansas city,. not for personal emusment and entertainment.. sorry bro.

NAM Rule,GFS has turned bad.

Sorry everyone, but this is all my fault.  I put eight 40# bags of pellets in my SUV for better traction before last Thursday's storm... and *poof*, it disappeared.  Then, I took the bags OUT of my SUV yesterday afternoon, only to hear Gary talk last night about how this was quickly turning into a major winter storm for our area.  Everything was good all day... until I got home from work tonight and put the bags BACK IN my SUV.  Once again... *poof*... there goes the snow.  I'm running out right now to unload those bags again!!  We need all the good karma we can get on this one!!!  I'll give up the added traction for lots of snow anyday (even though I have a 38 mile drive to work!!)

22F in Broken Bow, NE
I would NOT worry about any long lasting freezing rain or sleet event for the KC metro area. The cold arctic air is dense and heavy. It is also on the move!

Weatherblog moderator please block KCDewayne.  Thank You

Gary,
That is one of the narrowest snow bands yet! LOL
How much are you thinking for Douglas and Shawnee counties in KS considering the very tight snowfall forecast range?

the chances of the moisture and that energy making it here is very slim but we'll kem em crossed..but **POOF**

hey stop snichin dooby doo

oh and look who cant spell now brian1234

I have a GUT feeling that the NAM might be correct again!

I agree DoobyDoo!  This is my first time in here and he is not setting a very good example or first impression!  

sorry kcdewayne,... but ***POOF***  

ok he's gone.. just like our major winter weather event.

Check the thundersleet and thundersnow forecast by the NAM ... also note the snow total being over 6 inches at KCI. The battle of the models has begun.

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kmci.txt

I wonder if one model does better than the other based on the type of storm. Why was the NAM better than GFS last time? And is this storm in its "zone"?

My volume was turned down, was that a rap song about weather?

Sorry, but I do think areas south of I-70 will see more than 1-3 inches. This has to be some kind of nightmare :(

That cold Air will make in before morning, I bet!

The NWS just updated and calls for 3-5" through the metro and more up north.  I know they are pretty bad calling a storm, but there is still hope!

sorry dewayne,. it's not me , it's my personal typist, she made another spelling error, I was just ummm... distracting her. Yeah that's it. Like I said earlier, in Johnson County,. we have others do our typing for us.

hey is that a thret brain1234 you like threting 14 year old kids

Yeah rod did it go like this:

Yo Yo Yo,. I'm waiting on the snow, I got no blow so I'm hangin with my ho..

was that the one?

Rick,

Check out my blog

http://kcweatherblog.blogspot.com/

For some stuff from last Tuesday.

it's BRIAN1234  not brain1234  

Come on y'all!  You aren't making this blog look very good anymore!

This weather blog thread is getting way off topic...

Exciting blog tonight, we will just have to wait to see what happens.  It is now 11:15, I would think that parents would have put their children to bed, it is a school night.  

No brian it went like this:
Ice Ice Baby....da dum dum dum da da ding ding

OK, children, time for bed. Night-night now. Time for the adults to have some time.

Fe Fi Fo Fum, waitin' on the snow, hope to get me some.
Fum Fo Fi Fe, ain't gonna happen when you live in KC!

Yep, I've got some mad rappin' skills.

11:06 update from NWS Pleasant Hill:

TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH THAT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLEET IS
POSSIBLE...AND WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW TOWARDS SUNSET. DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES. A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING SIX INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA BEFORE ENDING BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

Northlander,

I'm homeschooled, love weather, and will be 18 in September 2008

give it a rest guys.  Let's talk weather and you two stop

Soooo... You're saying there's a chance.

Oh ok dooby doo.  Well he did have three youtube links. Try the other one.

oh poof dragon. is it adult swim? damn,..

ok how's this for weather related. Tonight, dark, with increasing darkness then getting less dark at around dawn where it will continue to lighten up and be... not so dark.

ok seriously,.. today was really amazing we went from 70 deg to 39 deg in less than an hour and a half.. a drop of 31 deg in an hour and a half.. that was very interesting.

YAY!!!! I hope so!  I want to build my baby's first snowman with him!!! I am sooooooo excited!!!

If you want heavy snow every winter the UP of Michigan and northern lower peninsula offers lots of it!

The NWS still is giving out hope, but.... who knows... I don't want to start a controversy, so I won't say anything else.

CentralOP2 ... that snowcast was issued before the 0Z models.

More interesting stuff from the NAM ...

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SLEET_84HR.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_84HR.gif

Tough to make a good forecast for the metro with that kind of gradient!

We have to use or instantaneous posting abilites wisely, bloggers. Let's not get off topic.

Come on people, hello this is a Weather blog, if you want to argue about other stuff besides weather, go make your own blog.

Rick,

Definitely tough!! It gives Olathe 2-4"

We have to use our instantaneous posting abilites wisely, bloggers. Let's not get off topic.

RickMckC,
Yes, that NAM snowfall gradient is sharp. I have a good feeling KCI will get decent snowfall amounts. LOL

Looks like the NAM is now against us too.  I'm going to create my own weather model using my old Apple IIe.  I'll bet I could be almost as accurate.  Modelitis is a terrible thing!

Brian1234,

Don't get started. I'm going to bed.

I think Olathe will get 3-6 inches according to my own forecast. I think the NAM is not forecasting the arctic air very well. This is similar to other winter events.

Temps will be critical to see how far we fall overnight...sitting at 36 in S OP

My 100% correct prediction:   something in the form of wetness will fall from the sky tomorrow.  Things might get wet.  The guy singing on Leno right now is a dork and stressing me out like the wannabees on Harrah's.

" the NAM is now against us too."

How could that be? The 6Z runs have not come out yet.

I really am holding on to the hope that we'll have more than 3" of snow here by the airport, even though there is little to support that.  I'd gladly trade ice for more snow!

looks like nws cryed wolf again

Well, am I reading that last model right?  I don't know, but I think that the model that CentralOP2 had put up, does that mean that we have a 40% chance of seeing over 2"??

I have always been interested in this blog, and I agree. Even though I read all the time, I don't post, and it is becoming quite unpleasant reading these.  It is getting EXTREMELY off topic....  

But, anyways, not doing anything that could jynx the storm tonight!  Maybe if I plan on doing a lot of things tomorrow, it will snow crazy.  haha.  One can only wish.

Weatherfly,
Temperatures are dropping into the lower 20s upstream in Nebraska. It just takes the colder air a long time to get here since we are so far south in latitude.

brian1234,

I am also a christian. and when you say these kinds of things it is very offending. this is a weather blog and i'm positive gary would agree with me, leave those kinds of comments somewhere else. thank you.

Never overestimate the power of artic air in November/December & February / March...

.35 to .60 inches of QPF according to the 0Z NAM
However, will it hold up in the 6Z model run.
That is the BIG weather question.
Will KC get snow or will we have another failure storm?

Randy Cooper said:
brian1234,

I am also a christian. and when you say these kinds of things it is very offending. this is a weather blog and i'm positive gary would agree with me, leave those kinds of comments somewhere else. thank you.


Thanks Randy! That's really comforting.  

"Never overestimate the power of artic air in November/December & February /March.."

That is true. I only wish KC was further north in latitude and less prone to 60-70F air in February!!!!!

Seriously.  This needs to stop.  Two things actually need to stop...  

Number one:  Religion is someone's personal choice, and they can do what they want and they have chosen and they don't deserve to be criticized for their beliefs.  If he has a weatherblog that is a religious blog and you don't like it, don't go to it.  Simple as that.  Lay off.

Number two:  I agree that we all have a little modelitis, but it's hard not to, huh??  

Agreeing with DoobyDoo:  100% of something exciting tomorrow (from a foot of snow to a record windy sunny day)  :)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//nam/00/nam_slp024042_l.shtml

At 30 hours out this model should be accurate! You would think.....

yes they did johnmar, the NWS blew it again..like last week. how about I issue a tornado warning right now,.. it will eventually happen.

but then again to their defense. better safe than sorry. at the risk of paranoia, ratings hype, advertising, and sales.  but of course,.. as usual,. no accountability.

I'm glad the NWS is not the mail service,.  " Ya you'll get your mail tomorrow... umm sorry no mail.. not our fault... good luck

We have to use our instantaneous posting abilites wisely, bloggers. Let's not get off topic.

The 11:43 model run just came off of the Apple IIe.  Looks like 5" of snow on top of 1/4" of sleet for South KC.  We'll see if those other models agree in the morning.

WX Smithville ... Central OPs link was from this afternoon before the last model runs.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOPEKA...LAWRENCE...EMPORIA...OTTAWA
957 PM CST MON FEB 4 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
MIDDAY TUESDAY AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO END LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 5 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO HOLTON. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL CAUSE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE ACCUMULATED
SNOW...RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

brian1234 - this is all i am going to say. nobody is pushing religion on you. if someone has an opinion and you disagree then so be it, but to go and insult and make fun of someone for their belief is a little much.

CentralOP, I think it says something about lack of confidence in the latest model runs that neither KC or Topeka has backed off on the WSW.

"WX Smithville ... Central OPs link was from this afternoon before the last model runs."

My latest link was for the 0Z NAM. Should we trust the NAM? I would think so based on the last storm.

well i did use the dark side of the force to make dewayne go **POOF**

and wxsmithville ,. my forcast was better.. Tonight, dark, with increasing darkness then getting less dark at around dawn where it will continue to lighten up and be... not so dark.

i agree with WXSmithville, if this does not stop than gary is going to lose bloggers and eventually viewers, and i'm sure none of us want that to happen to the number 1 accurate weather team in kansas city. so lets just keep it simple like the name implies: WEATHER BLOG.

23F in Goodland now.

The Colder Air is on the move.  I think it will start snowing between 1-4pm.

I think I am getting modelitis. Right now I would be satisfied if everyone received 1-3 inches. Our central location is so depressing in terms of getting decent snowfalls.

VdoManZ ... Brian is, once again, just bravely speaking his mind.

well my prediction early this afternoon was for 2 inches of ice and 8 inches of snow...what a waste.

Here is where the arctic air is coming from.

http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KABR.html

CentralOP, I think WXSmithville was talking about the 40% line on this link you posted awhile back:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif

"CentralOP, I think WXSmithville was talking about the 40% line on this link you posted awhile back:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif"


Yes, that was the old link. It is probably useless now.  

I am leaving for the night. I am sick of analyzing the models for now.

RickMcKc:  Yeah, it took awhile for my comment to be posted, so that's why it was a little delayed :)  

Brian1234:  Your forecast is sure to be correct, but will it be tomorrow or some other time?? :)

CentralOP2:  Sorry about that.  My post was held a little while...

Wow.  Lots of blogs in between refreshes!  Haha  But anyways, how is the new data looking?  Is it (NAM and GFS) still trending for the heavier snow amounts to be even north of St. Joseph, let alone the Metro area?

yes i am,. unlike most people i'm not affraid of doing so. sometimes you go against the grain, that's part of life. I'm a realist. I call it like it is.

I'm always amazed to see those who voice their opionions freely. No matter what. It's free speech.

I'm a 35 year kansas native, i know the weather patterns here. I don't  pretend to be a wanna bee forcaster, nor do i promote hype, I will expose those who are and do. And take great pleasure for making them look foolish. Cause it's those who really misinform others.

nws issues a thunder storm warning little ol  shower then they issue all these other watches and waning im getting to the point to where they are a doing more harm than good they have to many false alarms

You know, I have been a part of this blog for like, what, an hour and a half?  I seem to be reading more about religion, and racisim.  What the heck does that have to do with the weather?  It is making people think that there are a bunch of grade schoolers in here trying to see who can make the other one more mad while offending others that don't even have anything to do with the childish argument.  Is is possible to act like adults?  

Here is the example, and yes it's weather related.

I have been a storm chaser for some time.  I was at an event a few years ago. And looked at the clouds, watched the winds. Went inside and warned people to take cover, get the elderly and childeren to the basement.

No one listened, people were just ignoring me, "Yeah right" "whatever"

So I left, drove out of the parking lot and headed for I-35.

10 minutes later, a tornado hit north kansas city wiping out the entire neighborhood next to the church i was at.  If you remember that was the massive tornado that started around levenworth and tracked its way up the kansas speedway and did so much damage.

The storm will weaken, break apart, become negatively tilted, dry slotted, split, lack saturation throuhout the column and disappear into thin air and we will end up with a few flakes to coat the tips of grass blades. Even this is looking doubtful. I'm just waiting for the news of what went wrong again. Something will go wrong, it almost always does. It's the KC curse! Like I said, "no more snow until next year", it's all over, 11.0" of snow for the year in Blue Springs!! I'm putting my snowblower into storage for a couple of decades from now after the sunspots go to work and began our global cooling trends.

i agree wxsmithville, it may even happen every night..lol

bewild79 ... it's not usually like this. I'm not sure why Brian feels the need to grind his axe against religion here, but it's becoming a habit. Maybe I missed it, but no one incited him to do so.

Past my bed time.  Here's to better model runs tomorrow.  

Out.

Ok, so what, does that mean that you have to throw comments at one person to make them mad and not care if you are offending people that have had nothing to do with it?  It's a great thing that you tried to help those people.  If they didn't want to listen, that's on them.  That doesn't mean you bring in religion and racisim to weather discussions.  It doesn't make sense.

so when wannabees and people that hype or cry wolf are trying to add their "expert opinion"  yeah i'm gonna sound off on them. It becomes very dangerous when the advise or opinion of someone else is taken in consideration by the masses. make predictions and guesses.. have a little fun.

RicMcKc, I am sure it's not and that is wonderful, because before all this started, and I was reading about the other stuff, I was having fun.  I just wanted to say my piece.  I am sure he does not care what I think, and he is probably calling me names, but that is ok.  I will be back here tomorrow.  I like it here.

I will have fun if you don't make it out to be things against religion (which I am VERY faithful) and racisim.  Let's just stick to weather, K?

I'm confused, too, Brian - "have a little fun" - what does that mean? And who exactly are you sounding off on?

my bed time too...  Hopefully all this anger and upset will be worked out tomorrow :)  I just try to get along with everyone.

Point taken, and I motion that this blog be FREE OF RELIGIOUS, RACIAL, and NON-WEATHER-REALATED (unless it's something about a family problem, because believe it or not, there is a lot of compassion on here) TOPICS!  

Anyone want to second or third the motion?  

If you do, it won't take effect until tomorrow (well I guess later today) because I'm as tired as this storm system that seems to be wanting to throw in the towel over the KC area and give us a rest this winter.  (thought this similie would match well) :)  Goodnite everyone!

brian1234,
we are glad that you know alot about meteorology, but some of us are here to learn about it. take bewild79 for example, they just joined the blog and now its almost like you are driving them away because of your comments about religion, racism, whatnot. they dont necessarily have to be those things in order for them to take offense to it. but if it keps happening people are gonna take one look at this blog and say i dont want anything to do with this weather blog or weather team. so its not just affecting the bloggers, its affecting the whole weather team.

Gary:

Good late evening to you sir or should I say good early morning?? Just got home-I am currently hovering around 33-34 degrees with a fairly brisk North West wind-def. a big change from 4:00 P.M. today!!!

Ok, I have the storm bug bad and am going to throw out some random observations-again, that sound you here is the limb cracking that I am so vigourously going out onto-i.e. these are prob. way off!!!! LOL

1. Looking at the 5Z surface charts it appears that the front is located from say Jefferson City to an Enid Oklahoma line-it appears it is still diving south into Oklahoma but has for sure kind of hit a wall in Central Missouri. The million dollar question is will the front stay there or go a bit further south or worse, begin a jump back to the North-I really think it stays and maybe even continues to move south somewhat.

2. There are currently two areas of surface low pressure on the surface charts-a farily potent one in the Texas Panhandle which is I think is kicking off the precip. we now see down there and then a weak one located over Laurie, Missouri around Lake of the Ozarks. I think that weak surface low will help keep the front from jumping back North and may even help kick it a bit further south

3. One thing we are missing is the position of the High Pressure system-currently  there is a 1031 MB High sitting just South of Winnepeg-if that could move down about 70-100 miles it would for sure help with the cold air push-currently, it is just a bit too far north to give us the perfect set up we need. Will be interesting to follow this over then next few hours and just see where it goes.

4. Even with point number 3, I am currently at around 34 and still dropping-there is some colder air in Nebraska that is trying to get down here and reenforce this cold shot-will it make it?? Another interesting facet to watch

5. Looking at the GFS (I still refuse to look at the NAM-if they are going to reissue it even if it hit last week, I still don't trust it at all) if my weather page has uploaded the correct model run (great time to have the weather page I subscribe to go bonkers huh!!) it looks like the GFS wants to push the warm air back over the top of us tomorrow morning-however, it has missed the colder air readings in Oklahoma as some of the readings are in the mid 30's at the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Just a random observation-I was way off last time with this, but I still just wonder if the GFS did not miss some of the colder air and how far south it actually is.

6. If the front stays where it is or even sags a bit further south, the low I think will track right along the front so it is not in a bad position if we can just get the colder air a little more entrenched

7. My main point, is that I am not giving up on this yet at all-it is a very wet storm and with the temp. gradients we are going to see, it is going to have some kick. To me, if I wake up tomorrow morning and my temp. is from say 33-30 I will feel pretty good about things especially if places like Concordia and Manhattan are in the 20's.

Just some observations/ideas-I hope the limb doesn't break too hard or fast LOL!! Really, I just hope these make some sense!!!

Have a great evening-thanks for providing great information today-In my very humble hobbyist opinion,  this storm is still up in the air and still could go either way-it is the 4th quarter though-I just hope we don't throw another pick!!!

Bill leaving the towel in the pocket in Lawrence

i think if you look back at the blog it was dewayne who started the racism stuff. Iam just the only one still here. so i'm your only target.  I never brought up the whole religion thing. Gary even made and effort to address this in the last blog. Hey whatever makes you sleep better at night is fine with me.  Religion is just an opinion. I can't fault someone for their own opinion. Now if you said that the earth was flat I can prove you wrong. But if I want to beleive there is an imaginary man in the sky who sees everything, hears everything, and has 10 rules he dosn't want me to break , and if i do i  will spend an eternity suffering and in pain, for ever and ever,...... then I will. But I'll take comfort in one thing.. He loves me.

Bill,
Good observations. The GFS looks to have a slight warm bias already.

Yes He does.  He loves everyone.  Truce...K?  Dream of snow!  Goodnight all.

Bill, great post as usual! I'm in agreement with you that it's too early to call it. And I know you are avoiding the NAM, but it's also in agreement with you ... about .66 of precip after the column is below freezing at the fort (I know you are in Lawrence, but I can't find a WEMSI code for there!)

So...here is what I think.  The latest GFS is not working for me on the 850 temps.  In checking the soundings, it seems the models are moving the temps too slow to the SE.  I like the NAM a bit more in this aspect.

I also am not buying the ULL passing over the metro.  Based on ULL trends and the little bit faster progression of the 850 temp grads, I am thinking the ULL may track about 20-25 miles further south.  Its hard to tell right now.

Also, I think the GFS is a hair too warm at the surface.  I think at max we will see 34, but more around 32-33 degrees for the metro.

I think 8PM tomorrow will be the magical hour for snow.  I expect the bands to come about 20 miles south.  Also, I am expecting a bit more widespread snow.

I cannot discount the jet streak in the area beyond just the 500 mb lift.

brian1234,
its exactly comments like that that really offend us. see, to us He's not imaginary, He is real. and for you to criticize it even after i already discussed it earlier that this should strictly be weather and not irresponsible, insulting comments like that only shows your immaturity.

Folks.  Enough.

Thank you Randy.  I just figured if I said it the way I did.....I don't know..it's silly that he keeps on and on and on!

brian ... good point about the racism deal. You did not bring that up. But this:

brian1234 said:
they all look at the same data green acres.  It's like religion. Alot of data out there and everyone has the same resources, but everyone believes different things.

... was the first mention of religion in this evening's blog.

I hope you are right Scott!  I want to build a snowman with my 4 year old that has never seen more than 2 in.  Guess I will find out tommorrow!  Goodnight again.

Darn! Nothing for Columbia?

Scott,
Good analysis. I am thinking the GFS is definitely underdoing the snowfall amounts and tracking the ULL too far north given the current temp profiles.

ya know.. i'm just about done with this blog... i've been here the last 3 or so years. not always posting but reading..

I'M REALLY SICK AND TIRED IF FILTERING THREW ALL THE CRAP THAT HAS BECOME THIS BLOG, JUST TO READ WEATHER INFO.

PEOPLE its a WEATHER blog. keep it at that!!!!!!


Gary and weather team, please get this crap out of here, please!

smmikeman

now that thats out of the way..

Hope your right Scott, i'm tired of st.joe getting the snow.  i would LOVE for 6+ to make it down to at least liberty!!

Isn't it about time you got rid of the "Brian's" on this blog?

If I wanted Theology I would go to a theology site.  Too many High Schoolers on here spewing whatever they want and ruining the tendency of this site which is weather.

It is beyond reproach to try and hijack this type of thread for your own personal goals.

The cognitive content of this site is to talk about weather, what is going to happen based on science and how that science influences those predictions and discussion of past events and how they effect how we live.

That is it.  

I'm not very surprised by the way things have... devolved in the blog lately.  Having been on a few blogs and forums during my free time at work, I've found that generally when 'policing ourselves' is no longer possible, it becomes time to give members of the community the ability to moderate and as necessary ban users that abuse the privelage to post.  Unfortunately, as the blog has grown in popularity, the range of users has expanded beyond those of us that simply enjoy the weather.  Some people intentionally disrupt the blog while others are so ignorant they think the entire world agrees with them and thinks they should throw their ideas out there.  I'm fortunate my fellow Lawrencian Bill (sertorius) is as thorough as he is, otherwise I'd have missed his insightful and well written (and hopeful for snow lovers!) analysis.

Let's hope for a nice snowstorm tomorrow.  Also, its a good idea to keep your thoughts here like you would at work: probably a bad idea to talk about politics, religion, race or sex.  Those will get you fired out there, and they should get you banned from here.  Unfortunately, the man who invented the keyboard had no idea his invention would spawn the fuel of internet tough guys everywhere: keyboard courage. :(

I suggest a few members of the community be 'deputized' by the NBC action weather team to police the blog and keep the peace.  I'm not pushing myself for this position, just throwing the idea out there.  They should be objective and fair, and probate the users before resorting to an all out ban.  It's gotten to the point today that I just skip the other comments to leave my own (unfortunately)

I have only been following the blog for a couple of months now, and I rarely post. I had already become familiar with the "regulars" here and thoroughly enjoyed reading what they had to say about WEATHER, be it hobbiest analysis or professional. I had to take a break from the blog the past 10 days or so and now that I am back on several times a day, I am seeing lots of new bloggers and lots of non-WEATHER related posts. There are plenty of places for people to go on the internet to be rude, crude, insulting and hateful. If you want to engage in that sort of thing, please take it elsewhere. It is hurting the credibility of this long-standing, reliable WEATHER blog and many here don't appreciate that. The WEATHER team has enough on their plate trying to provide a valuable service to Kansas City without having to play nanny to a bunch of childish bloggers. Enough already!

Couldn't sleep just thought I would see if anyone was awake and posting. Looks like I'm the only one on here at the moment. Radar looks like quite a bit of precip west and SW of us. Just need temps to drop a few degrees. I agree with alot of these posts to keep this a weather blog and cut out the nonsense that has gone on as of late. When I first started reading the blog last summer and started posting, very few times by the way, there wasn't any of this going on. C'MON SNOW!!!

nws discussion says major winter storm for northeast ks and northwest missouri including the northwest part of kansas city suburbs and north they are going to issue a winter storm warning for that area and some sort of advisory for kc for lesser amounts.

Looks like St Joe will get pounded again.   Even KCI northward will get some good snow.   The temps are going to kill the southern half of the metro and will limit our snow totals.    Bummer :(

I agree radman do you see the trend this season Topeka Leavenworth St Joseph the same areas over and over a gain.

I do see the same old trend, except for last weeks storm that never came north.  We are indeed cursed.  

i live right by the airport, i told everyone this storm will not materilize into anything serious. KC will never have big snows again

You got a decent chance at seeing the higher snow totals because you will see the cold air quicker.   Could you imagine if all the precip they are expecting today was snow...    its so sad!

yup national weather service says it will mostly be rain till tonight

yep I live in leavenworth so we are in the same boat teamster looks like heavier accumulations around the airport and north.

really surprised gary hasnt put out a new blog, This many people intersted in this i guess snow storm. i was wandering what his opions are now since he has the latest info.

norther KC counties under a winter storm warning.... better get off to sleep so i can get up for the excitement!

He will update it this morning as usual I am sure.   The blog got way out of control tonight and I hope some measures are taken to correct it.   It had been such a positive place for info and opinions.  

noaa just downgraded kansas city to a winter weather advisory

The northland looks in decent shape.   It will take all day to change over to snow I bet though.   South of the river it will take longer.    St Joe has been blessed this year, except for that ice storm.    3 huge storms in one year!!

The wording in the NWS statement says after the rain, we will get dryslotted and pray the wrap around snow hits us.   1-3" south of the river.    

last blog. i threw the dreaded curse dry slot out there, and everyone thought i was crazy.

Looks like we will get dry slotted on the south side of the metro.  Dry air is mentioned in the Winter Weather Advisory for south of the river.  I am not expecting much here in south Raytown.  Enjoy the snow on the north side of the metro and in St. Joe and points NEward. :)  Take plenty of pics for those of us on the southside. :)

Kristi

Like somebodey said " The storms always miss us, go poof or our mysrios driend, mr, dryslot. Can you tell it to give Jhonson county a foot of snow and if it dont then punich he storm.

    Byan.

I don't understand how Topeka, which is only one hour away from us, can get 8 inches of snow and not see any of the dry air, meanwhile we here get all the dry air and harldy see any snow. Does anyone know if there is anywhere else in the country that gets hit with this type of cursed dry slot behavior? If so, I'll make sure never to move there.

rockies have lots of snow

When does gary make a new forecast?

Thunder and lightning starting in Paola....dang I was so hoping we would miss any type of precipitation.  Got to put my positive thinking into play and drive it away! ha!

must....have....snow

Well it looks like my prediction of dusting to 2 inches might be right on for portions of the metro area. I still don't know why they have Kansas City, KS under a winter storm warning since we will only meet advisory criteria.

------------------

Bryan,

It is a tough one today.  Snowstorms are not that wide to begin with, and the band is going to form right near us.  So, we may get the 2 inches you are expecting, but we could get much more if it just shifts a bit farther south.

Gary