NBC Action Communities

WINTER STORM WARNING!!!  My favorite!  
Come to Platte City baby!

North Shift, North Shift, North Shift....we're chanting that in Paola this morning.  Sorry, but we have had enough snow this season, enough rain to last well into summer and we're ready for dry air and warm temperatures.  Back to changing...North Shift, North Shift, North Shift

It was 33 in Platte City at 5:00am.  Seemed a little warmer here at KCI, just 6 miles south.  I'm hoping all the precip in Platte City will be frozen of some sort, with mostly snow of course.  I love snow, but I do like freezing rain, ice, and sleet too, believe it or not.  I guess it's all just so fascinating!  It all makes driving more fun in a big rear wheel drive truck! Plus a layer of sleet under that snow makes for some fast sledding! And of course the coziness.  Nothing is as cozy as a foot or more of snow on the ground while your sitting next to a fire, and it is still snowing heavily...
I think. ****** It looks as if you will get everything you wished for weatherwise today.  Brett

Gary:

Good Morning to you sir!!! Another crazy day eh?? Currently sitting at 34 degrees and we heald steady at that temp. since about midnight.

Lawrence is kind of in an interesting place for this storm-will be interesting to see just how quickly we dip below freezing today-will be something to watch. Amazing how it appears that this storm is going to line up almost exactly as it did on 12-9-just awesome!!!!

Well, I was up to late last night following this trying to will my temp. below 32-did not work LOL!! So now I'm late-have a great day and good luck today-this is going to be a crazy day for weather!!!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Isn't it amazing how we sit there and try to help those temperatures move in the direction we want them to.

Wow, what a day.  The 06z models were actually much closer to having a snowstorm from Lawrence through KC.  I think you will get into it earlier, which is usually better. 

And, I am blogging about it right now, but did you notice the VERY STRONG Arctic front moving in on Saturday.  Here it comes.  We will have a few more good chances for snow this season.

Gary

Gary,

You are so correct about this being significant with Thunderstorms this morning here in Kansas City. Just starting to see some flashes off to my south here in KCK...Looking forward to seeing some snowfall later today. Hopefully those models continue to trend further south a little bit so KC can get some healthy snowfall totals. Either way, the moisture is a great thing. This will be very interesting to watch today for sure!

Bryan ***** Thanks for your update,  We will be watching radar trends and the new data when it comes out around 8AM.  Brett

Thanks for the update Gary, will check in at work, you rock!  Hope the heaviest hits tonight im taking another vacation.  I need it.

Gary-
What would be the most accurate way of tracking the low pressure today? I thought I would share this with my students. Is there a website I could go to for this? What can we watch for and where do we need the low to track vs. where it is currently forecasted to track?

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David, I would track the surface low by using this web site:  http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/

It is already set up on the RUC model.  Just click on the 0 hr and it will give you the latest analysis every hour.  You can click on mslp, or the other parameters to track today's weather. 

Good luck!

Gary

It looks like another 2 inch or less snow for South KC.  *** Right now, but the overnight weather data trended the storm farther south so maybe a little more.  Brett

I was pretty bummed out when I heard the weather update this morning.  Maybe, just maybe, Eastern Jackson County will get hammered with some sort of frozen precip out of this.  I'm hoping for a this whole thing to shift south but I'll bet we end up with an inch by morning!  

Keeping my fingers crossed:)

DL

Gary,

What is your current feeling that the storm may continue its slow descent south and track over the metro area?

Trying not to get my hopes up,

Fred

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Fred,

I have not seen any indication of it moving much farther south yet.  Looking at the satellite movies it is hard to find this morning.  So, it is something we may not know for hours.

Gary

Gary and TH Weather Team:

Ok, the cob webs are kind of gone now LOL-still running late but man, I'm hooked into this big time!!!

A couple of other random observations:

1. Looking at the Topeka soundings, they have began to cool quite a bit from the 950-700 level especially compared to KCI-I use Topeka as guestimate for Lawrence since I can't find soundings for Lawrence proper-it appears there is at the 900 MB level some temps. around 25 degrees so I would guess Lawrence is around 30 at that level-I wonder if when it begins to rain if that rain will not mix some of that colder down to the surface-just a random thought

2. It appears that on the 12Z surface charts that the surface low is located right along the Central Red River and the the front has made it to about Springfield, Missouri back into Oklahoma City-I would think that that surface low would track right along the front-I think???

3. Thunder is here!!!!! Let the games begin!!! What a storm!!!!

Have a great day-another weather day for my students LOL!!!!! Here we go!!!

Bill in Lawrence

Gary-
Great analysis and explanation to us on this blog.  This storm appears to be developing into a Monster and just as you said 2 counties (50-75 miles) can make a huge impact on the snow track.
It is interesting to be around 35F with thunderstorms.  We all appreciate you and the Weather Team's dedication to this blog.  I work more hours than I want to right now and cannot always catch the Newscasts so this is another way to stay in touch with the most accurate KC forecast.
Your passion for the weather is unmatched anywhere I have lived.
It will be a very interesting next 12 hours.
Jeff

It is 35 degrees in Parkville. I am still hoping for 6 inches up here!

I here THUNDER over by worlds of fun! Really COOL!!

In Adrian the thunder, lightening, and deluge hit about 5:00 am.  What snow amounts do you see for our area?  

coming down pretty good in Lee's Summit right now... its 35 degrees and a thunder storm at 6:40. What a crazy day we have in store! The last 3 days have been really fun to watch/track. I'm hoping the changeover happens fast i.e. NO ICE.

Jereme

There is lots of lightning with little thunder, Why? If it shifts south how much snow will blue valley get? If it is past 7:10, you don't need to anwser these questions, I'll asl them when I get back home.

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We don't know if it is going to shift south, or north yet.

Gary

I am also seeing lightning to the south.  Is there any point in time that the forcast can't change?  Also is there any possibility that any of this precip could be ice?  Hope not, Bretts forcast just now looked like evening crunch time is when it will get messy!  DL, you would think you had a concert coming up with this storm moving in!

MMMM,I should really try looking out my window before i post, It's raining here coming down pretty good.

Good morning Brett and Gary--

Wow- the radar looks like what we would see in March or April

How much rain are you thinking with these Tstorms this morning?

Rain and Thunder and 35 in Lenexa....

NO ONE else has picked up on the arctic air !!!

GO LRC!!

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Thanks!  Easily some spots will get more than one inch of rain.  Most areas 1/2 to 1 inch or rain just this morning.

Gary

We are in Western Lenexa- K-7 and K-10 area and we are having serious storms here.  The dogs won't even go outside and take care of business.  We have pea-size hail currently at 6:45am.  My girls would love a big snow storm but after last weeks 'no-show-snow', I told them it would just rain.  So Gary 'get 'er done' and let it snow!  

Hi Bulldog,

No kidding on concerts and bad weather (of course, I think it's good weather!).  I do have a few kids playing at a Fat Tuesday performance but I'm not in charge on this one.  Good to hear from you:)

DL

I got my 6am wake up call from rain, thunder and 2 girls....who were scared. They said, "I thought it was suppose to snow....not thunder and rain?" LOLOL!! I had to break their hearts by telling them we may not get snow this time. Of course they said, "again!!!!". LOL!! I do love getting that nice washing rain though. Any form of precip is a good one in my book....will make for a prettier spring. Have a great day and good luck with the forecast.
Monica
Pleasanton KS

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Monica,

The best thing about the storms this winter is at least you get a lot of moisture out of them.  There is still hope for you to see snow.  We will see, but we know what has been happening all winter.

Gary

I don't see any snow for the metro area and southward until after midnight tonight. If there is 2" we will be lucky. However, I do see at least 1" of rain.

Dave

Currently 33 degrees in Leavenworth, I see were in the 3-6 inch range, any chance that will be on the higher end of that?

34 degrees and a Thuderstorm here in Grandview.  Huskies went outside and turned around and came back in....    Hipefully, the storm systgem will track just south and we can get some good snow out if it.    I'm on a mini vacation until Friday....

Have a great day weather team....

Bill and Melissa

Gary  we got rain and sleet now in KCK

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It is likely hail and not sleet.  Small hail!

Gary

gary  do you think this is going to move any more to the south and we get the big snow this time or do you think 2 to 3 in

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Let's start with the 2 to 3 inches and then see if things shift south. 

Gary

Gary,
    You use percentage chances sometimes.  What would you say the % chances that much of the metro would recieve above 1-3, 1-3, or less than 1".  It seems on the models that the 540 line stays to our north well past midnight.   I hope this is wrong!  Thanks

matt

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Matt,

Maybe we will put percentages on it with our next update, but since the totals will vary greatly from county to county I think it would be better not to do this today.

If the storm tracks farther south, that 540 line will get here faster, but if it tracks farther north, then it will struggle.

Gary

Gary. Right now on Accuweather they accualy boosted snowfall totals for the KC metro to around 4 inches. They believe this storm will track farther south and give places Like Olathe some good snow

also do u see that moving south by two counties

Gary, does this storm align with the LRC?

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Mark,

This so aligns with the LRC!  It is absolutely fascinating!

Gary

Well, once again the forecast has changed for the worst. I went to bed excited at 9, and now I am dreading the day. Unless this storm heads south, I think those of us in OP might as well give up hope of a big snow. To make matters worse, it's warming up as these thunderstorms move through! It's always north, south, east, or west of the city! This winter sucks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

hello to crazy weather again! i woke up to heavy rain ,thunder , lightning and hail or sleet pounding the house.  i hope we can hit the 6-10in mark for the snow my kids would be so happy. when is the next update going to be?

Thanks for the update! Raining pretty good here in Lenexa. I-35 and 87th.  I geuss this answers my question about severe weather followed by snow. lol.  Anyway keep up the great work guys. Personally I am hoping for more snow than forecasted.       How much Sleet do you think we well get. 1/2 inch or more?? Just wondering.




Its going to be a great day!!!! :)

Beautiful lightning out there.  My daughter didn't want to go to the bus stop! LOL!  It is so crazy the differences in the forcasts from the "other places".  I know one has the sleet and freezing rain to start at noon instead of 4.  That's a BIG difference.  NBC has always been the reliable though.  Keep it up!!!

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Thanks, and we have the timing down again today, but the way your statement goes it scares me.  If we are even wrong one time, are you going to be done with us? LOL  I know the pressure is wrong, but this is why we just wish you wouldn't go to all of those other sources.  We feel that it is a waste of time.

Gary

Lol. The NWS still has the Olathe area in 3-5 inches of snow

Report:  Drive to work, lots of lightening from Olathe to Overland Park AND-
crown shape spats on windshield , any snow lover knows what that is, something I have observed driving in that kind of weather since I was 5, LOL.  Right now, just went out before timing in, thunder rumbling to the south.  but looks like all rain, so looks like later.  But there was some snow mixed in on the way here, huge crown shaped splats, lol.  Kinda cool!  I hope it shifts 3 counties south, please oh please.
I realy need this one!  Look forward to your blogs today, thanks again for all your passion and effort to update us bloggers!  

Anyone who has more of a "warm weather" storm interest my want to watch the radar echoes down south today.

There is going to be some very impressive but dangerous long track tornadoes happen today in connection with this system.

The tornado warning red indicators will be popping today in AR, MS, TN moving east later in the day...

overnight NAM and GFS all trended back to where they have been all along.... snow in the metro

Good morning Gary and Brett! What a day! We've got some good thunder and hail right now in Atchison. We've got some school concerns starting to creep up - what's your time table for the changeover up here? Thanks!

Am I the only one here that is scared to death of tornados?  Just asking.  I love to see the shows they have on them on TV like Twister Sisters.  I like watching about the TIV also.  Again, though, I am scared to death to be in a tornado warning.  I know, I live in the wrong spot for that huh? LOL.  At least in Louisiana I had days to run from the hurricanes.  LOL!

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I think you have a lot of company.  I would be willing to guess that 99% of us are scared to death of tornadoes.

Gary

Gary and Brett--This is an incredible weather set up-

Check out the SPC discussion #154- WOW- Is this unusual??

Lots of lightning and thunder here in south Raytown.

Kristi

Gary, it looks like some dry air is working into the storm behind this initial area of thunderstorms.  This dryer air is also depicted on the computer models.  Any thoughts regarding how this will effect today's weather and the chances of snowfall?

Dan.

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Dan,

There are all kinds of things going on with this, NOT CLASSIC, storm.  There is a weak upper low trying to move into Colorado, but a very strong wave dropping through northern Mexico.  As this wave rotates northeast a new upper low may form?  So, a dry slot will form behind this first band, but it would likely fill in if that second system strengthens.  This is just one of the multitude of things we are looking at.

Gary

Good morning Gary--It is raining moderately here in Topeka since around 5:50-6:00am--it is 36 which seems to be a concern to change over.  I really don't like the idea of any freezing rain!  Topeka seems to be all over the place in snowfall amounts with Lawrence just on the edge.  I see your amounts and other sources have Topeka 3-8 depending on the track and when the actual cold air comes in.  I heard from one of my co-workers it is sleeting heavily in Manhattan.  Could the strong thunderstorms south rob some energy from this storm?  Also what is amazing is after this storm that the Artic front is coming and KNOW OTHER SOURCE around here has mentioned this front.  WOW, this will be a heavy precip day irregardless.  Michael/Berryton/Topeka

Wow, what rapid rain faill here in La Cygne with small hail stones.... covered the north side of the house. Of Course I was in the barn during the heaviest... very loud on the metal roof. And several big claps of thunder too. Sounds like April outside instead of Feb.

Im soooo ready to get onto Spring!

Gary,
There is no way that I would listen to anyone else.  You have been the MOST accurate.  I was in Louisiana for 6 years and I was watching wonderful Bob Breck down there. ( don't know if you have heard of him)  He is the Gary of the south.  He was the one most accurate down there.  Especiallly when it came to the hurricanes and Katrina. (I don't like that name anymore, no offence to anyone)  When I got back up here, my mom actucally told me to start watching you because "everyone else" had issues with the forcasting.  You have done wonderful.  I also know that it is hard to predict some of these storms and the snowfall totals.  I trust you and your team the most.  Mistakes will be made, but that is what makes us human.  Keep it up and thanks.

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Thanks, and I have heard of and seen Bob on television before.  He does do a great job!

We are being hit by this storm big time this morning, but it is raining.  When it comes to snow we have to get the exact amounts correct.  It is not easy.

Gary

Just waiting for St. Joe to report a foot of snow, and season over 50 inches or something wonderful like that. South metro will likely be frustrated again! Seen this to many times, rain will take forever to change over, then the dry slot scenario and then the storm races away with flurries or dusting. Oh the joy of winter in Kansas City. It just can't simply SNOW!!!!!! Everytime it has to be the planets in just the right alignment, or something stupid.
I for once this winter hope this changes and we getsomething deepwer than my grass blades still sticking though the dusting. Next fall I will just have to cut the grass at 1/2 inch so anything looks like alot. Gary we have to shift this baby south????

Other stations are forcasting 4-8" for the Marceline area....I hope their right!!

Gary,  any idea on how fast of a progression the second cold front is moving at?

WOW, SLEET SNOW LIGHTNING AND BOOMING THUNDER HERE IN ST. JOE...
**************AMAZINGLY AWESOME WEATHER EVENT WARNING FOR ST. JOE AND BUCHANAN COUNTY:):):):):):)***********************************

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Nick,

Are you excited?  :)   Keep us updated.

Gary

Gary and the Weather Team:

Ok, no students in the class room yet, but they are going to get a good dose of weather in class today!!! LOL

A couple of other random observations:

1. It is raining to beat the band here in SW Lawrence-so much for my mixing down theory LOL

2. Looking at the 13Z surface observations: there is some very cold air poring into North Dakota right now-temps. are in the minus 15 degree range-to me this is interesting-I think it shows that the colder air is indeed on the move and we should get some reenforcemnt in here later today

3. Also, the front is very well defined in Central Oklahoma but has taken on a kind of West/East placement and then it runs up into about Springfield, Missouri-it looks to be having trouble clearing Missouri all the way, but it has continued a slow progression.

4. There are some upper 20's in the Oklahoma Pandhandle and Dodge City is at 29 and Manhattan is at 32. The colder air I think is indeed on the move

Going to be fascinating to follow this-of course I hope for a good winter event but whatever Mother Nature brings, this is fascinating and will be incredible to follow-we are watching this thing form right before our eyes!!! Just awesome!! Furthermore, man, the LRC just nailed this-I mean just hit it like a sledge hammer on a piece of dry wall!!!

Have a great day-man is this fun!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

The new data is rolling in, and the best chance of snow will be from late evening through morning.   It will likely come down quite heavily when it falls, but how long will it last.  We will update the blog around 9:45 AM.

Gary

NAM rolling in!

Wow, my house is shaking from thunder -- IN FEBRUARY!

It's 7:50 and here in Easton, MO we are getting a mixture of sleet and snow, with thunder and lightening.  Will this mean that we will change over to all snow sooner than expected, and get a greater snow total????

Fat, heavy snowflakes falling in Atchison.

Glad I didn't hold my breath for JoCoKS.  Looks like we'll get minor accumulations.

Last night people were seeing impressive QPF forecasts and thinking, wow, this will be a foot of snow! But as I suspected, a lot of this is falling as rain. Radar shows some parts of the area already up to 1" of liquid without a flake.

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Rdub,

Yes and no!  This is a very wet storm.  Yes, one inch will be mostly rain, but are you forgetting about the other one inch.  This is quite impressive and nearly 1 foot will still likely fall up north.  We will see a changeover to sleet and then snow, but with so much sleet this evening it will cut into the totals farther south.

Gary

32 at Falls City, NB.

I wouldnt be suprised if olathe had 1-3 leavenworth 4.6 st joe 8-12.  Even though it could shift,  but this is the classic track.  Im jealous of st joe right now!

I for one am hoping that it turns to snow sooner than everyone thinks... I left my umbrella at home and still have to walk around campus. I could get quite SOAKED.

I did like waking up to thunder though. :)

Well, if Kansas City fails to see any snow accumulations over 4", this fits perfectly with the LRC. And if we don't receive it today, we probably won't receive more than 4" for the rest of the winter season.

Hmmm ... NAM initial temps are too low compared to reality. Shows it was just below freezing at surface at 12Z (7AM) - but it was 35.

NAM is up to 12 hrs and allready has the WARM FRONT AT DOWNTOWN AP moving south!

AT 18HRS and has heavy precip in area with coldfront SOUTH OF KC.

O.K. we are having sleet and snow, I don't even think it is raining much anymore here and we have had three BIG FLASHES of lightning with the booming thunder afterwards:)  It is really like the twilight zone out there, I just seen Brett's update, very good, but I don't know if he knows it has already changed over from rain to sleet and snow in St. Joe, ooooh, a distant rumble of thunder YES!  ( I did see the lighting strikes near St. Joe on ESP to)

Loving the thunderstorm right now!  I just wish I was going to be home this morning to enjoy it!  

Unbelievable!! At 7am it started with a rain sleet mix, and is now it is pouring sleet. There has been lightning and thunder, truely amazing. I was not expecting it to start this early in the morning. It will be interesting to see how the day progresses.

TSTORM/RAIN/SNOW being reported at KCI TEMP 34.

Here's my current thinking, it may be overdone as it's downright balmy out there...

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=102193690776416852701.00044557d9595b020ea64&ll=39.066114,-94.372559&spn=1.810439,4.328613&z=9&om=0

It now looks like it is leaning more towards snow.

Yep, nothern tier of MO counties will get a huge snow out of this. It's often noticeably colder up that way compared to KC. Although right now it's just 32 in Lamoni IA and 33 in Kirksville.

22 IN HASTINGS,NEB.

Ok, here in Raymore the power was out for about 15 minutes from 6:50 to 7:10, and I just got my network back. The thunder and lightening were amazing. I do have a question....On the drive in, about 6:45, we had what looked like small snowballs splatter on the windshield? What is that?....

It looks like Raymore won't get much snow tonite, doggone it....But I have my snow shoes ready, just in case!

Who do we have to bribe in Independence and points south to get a good snow? This is looking more and more like a 1/2 of sleet and a dusting of snow for us yet again.
The one bright spot in that is the way this is following the LRC, this is quite amazing!

WOW at the 18 hr it has 1in of lquid form DWTOWN north!  and .75 south!

I don't think that we will get much snow here in south Raytown.  I've seen too much of the heavier snow go north of here so far this winter.

Kristi

Still showing mod. snow at 30hr.

yes now it is snowing with rumbles of thunder from time to time.

Yup it is snow, just stepped outside since I don't have classes at the moment. It is snowing with thunder. I am pretty sure we will be getting out early.

Thuderstorms and heavy rain in the Peculiar MO area, temps up last hour to 35.5..love to see a good push of cold air ...

Where is Scott when you need him lol.

Are things begining to change??? Go south??? Will Kansas City see 10" of Snow????

Or will it all move to the north???

Stay tuned for the next NBC Action Weather Blog.


Your life may deppend on it.


lol. heavy rain in Lenexa. Still 35*. Has not moved all morning.

Models have been consistent with several inches of snow in the metro with the exception of the last evenings GFS run.... overnight GFS run brought snow back into the metro and the new NAM gives us a lot of snow

Looks like the low is about 25-50miles south than last run.  Not for sure though.

Took the gf to work and when i got home was sleet on the deck, I had no idea it was even doing it as it is raining hard. Bring on the south track of the storm and so everyone can be happy today.

Fire Dog is that snow or rain at the 18hr??? I am just wondering your thoughts.

Here's a suggestion for the snow lovers in the south end of the metro who keep getting missed:  be like the springtime storm chasers and go to the storm!  Plenty of inexpensive motels in St. Joseph.  That would give you your snow fix, as long as you don't mind the risk of getting stuck for a day or two.  :)

I am so loving this thunder!  Bring it on!!!

I am loving this thunderstorm!!  You guys are gonna earn your pay today.  Hope all goes smoothly for you.

Keri

HEAVY SNOW WITH ROLLING THUNDER NOW IN ST. JOE...

I want more snow in Olathe. 4 inches

What a wild day this will be....wish I could just stay home and enjoy this weather....but I have to travel from St Joseph to Lenexa, where I work.  Will the heavy snow hold off until after 7:30????  I don't leave work until 6:30 and it takes a little over an hour to get back to St Joseph......

Light snow at 36hr done snowing by42.

heavysnow, didnt you say yesterday and last night that KC would be the bulls eye and get a lot of snow? that still gonna happen?

I wanna know if we will get 4 inches or not

Snowing/RAIN here up at my house.

why is st joe already getting heavy snow when they said not til this evening?

heavy  snow i have read some of your posts (somewhere else ;) and i think you are right about the cold air moving in sooner.

GFS will be out in 35min.

It sounds like the precipitation type and where to expect it, is going to be coming down to the wire as this storm approaches.....a true NOWCAST situation....

Trust Gary and his crew as they have been the most accurate this entire season....

My husband is in St. Joe, reporting HEAVY snow.  BIG flakes.  Does that mean that everything is gonna start earlier than first thought?  I was under the impression that the snow, even up there, was going to start later.  He is staying up there tonight....doesn't want to drive in it tonight or tomorrow and he has to go back there tomorrow.  Glad he did.  This could get messy.

Here in Hiawatha KS we turned over to snow about 8am and it's snowing heavily now.  Temp is 31.

SLEET AT 7:30  ALL HVY SN BY 8:00 NOW AT 8:25 S++++ WITH THUNDER AND LIGHTING....GRASS IS MOSTLY COVERED ALREADY STREETS AND WALKS AND CARS ARE WHITE ALL I CAN SAT IS HOLY %$@#.  this is my 10-14 incher that i've been blogging about since 2 Jan Gary!!!!>>>>>>> TEMP 32.0

Well I am hitting the road...will catch up once I arrive in KC...Maybe I will be staying in KC tonight instead of trying to head home to St Joseph.  Wish me luck

Gary and the weather team--looking at the NWS radar--looks like the precip's back edge is about 45 miles to our west.  It looks as if a little band of precip is forming the the northwest of Manhattan.  My wife heard that it was sleeting in Lawrence.  It is 33 degrees here. The storm must be going to bring in another batch this afternoon later.  You all to the east and northeast are really getting heavy precip.  We may be done here in Topeka in about an hour or so.  Michael/Berryton/Topeka

Thundering like crazy here

Radio just reported 36hwy from St. Joseph to Cameron is a mess. I'm not sure what that means but I'm assuming cars sliding off road and what not. Also, I-29 from here to Platte City is bad. Huge flakes falling, it is unbelievable. It reminds me of Dec. 22.  If it keeps this up, I say we will get that foot easily.

This blog is addicting!  I keep hitting refresh just to see new comments and see what everyone has to say!  I like hearing everyone's predictions.  We will just have to see who comes the closest.

There will be a lull in the precip mid-day then pick up mid afternoon.

Tropical downpour of... SNOW unreal, all snow with rolling thunder from time to time the first time  I remember seeing thundersnow, without any sleet falling, since... Oct. 22nd 1996   WOW again.

Is the snow accumulating up in St. joe?

Kristi

Really some significant rain on Hospital Hill!

I  need pics of the snow in ST JOE!

3/4 inch of accumulation at my house at 8:36 a.m.

4 Inches of snow in Olathe

Kristi.
My husband is up there and he said it is accumlating.  He is loving it....except having to drive in it.

Wow...I cannot belive how heavy the snow is already falling in St. Joe!  Between 7:45 and 8:00, everything had changed over to snow and the ground almost has a complete dusting on it already!  I would guess we are going to get out of school early...   Gary and Team-will this increase the amounts up here since it has started earlier than expected, or is the amount given just liquid precipitatio that could have been 6+ inches of snow OR rain?  

I love this weather...keep up the great work team!

Haven't the models been consistently to cold?  If that is the case then my guess is Gary and the team stick with their 1-3" for the metro even with the projected shift to the south.  My guess long day of rain. :(

We need pics. :)  Would love to see pics of the heavy snow falling. :)

Kristi

Its also snow/rain up at kci.

I wish I brought my camera with me to school.  This is perfect picture taking snow. It is accumulating on the roads according to the radio. We had a good dose of sleet before changing over to all snow. I don't know if the roads are slick or not. If the wind was blowing it would be white out conditions.

Take a look at this radar...you can see the changeover...pretty cool.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USKS0553&animate=true

I wonder what the chances are that this batch of moisture will be it for major precip out of this storm system for us south of the river? Radar/Watervapor/Sat pics all look to me like this will be it and this storm will pound the Iowa border and north this evening.  The water vapor looks like the low is already heading ENE out of Colorado/New Mexico which would put the low over us in KC or a little north of us even.
I know I am not an expert but that is what it looks like to me.

I am at a 1/2 in of rain now. Going west towards Centerville, this am, I saw about a 3 miles wide area of hail stones that must of fallen earlier this morning. Temp hovering around 34 for now.
Monica
Pleasanton KS

Well I took a few pics. but I'm not sure how to get them on this computer, So I will get them in eventually but I might be after the fact, the only "bad" thing about today is that I have to work most of the day.

Dry... slot?

when do you think the sleet and snow will start in parkville/farley area

I am about 5 miles south of KCI no flakes yet....

This will be the theme of todays blog... Everyone will think that the temps will drop ahead of schedule and we will see more snow.  Doubtful... who can argue with the LRC and what has happened all winter.

There is no way the low will shift far enough south for KC south to get much snow. I sure am glad!!

ice is accumulating on everything at the fort...be careful if you are traveling NW of the city...things are getting icy.  

i see more snow mixing in than before.  same amount of sleet, it looks like freezing rain is dissipating.

KellyofIndependence to your anwser its NO.  There is going to be a lull in the precip between 10-2pm and out west its allready reforming.  The main show is going to be late afternoon-WED morning.

KellyofIndependence to your anwser its NO.  There is going to be a lull in the precip between 10-2pm and out west its allready reforming.  The main show is going to be late afternoon-WED morning.

Near 128th & Mur-Len, Olathe, Ks... 0.65" in the  rain guage...temp is 33. Moderate rain continues.

Is there any chance that we get dry slotted soon?  From looking at the radar, it looks like there is nothing to the southeast of Emporia with most of the precip to the west.  Will that impact the storm for us?

This is ugly, southern snow lovers may as well not read anymore today and tonight as depression will set in. Have fun in St. Joe, make t-shirts, sell post cards, you know the wish you were ones, and we will see you in the spring when you dig out of your 50+ inches. We will be mowing lawns and smelling tulips.

Bummed out again in south KC! May as well be the south pacific, now that would be better!

Massive snowflakes here in Atchison Ks,  been going on since 8:00 am with occasional thunder. Almost an inch of accumulation so far.

GFS should be comming out anytime now.

Oh God...in Conception Jct. MO..the snow is insane...thunder, etc...can anyone tell me if maybe since it's started earlier, it will finish earlier, thus limiting our accumulations?  
Thanks! ***** No, that may enhance your acuumulations.  You may a spot that gets a foot of snow.  Brett

wow if it gets any colder what a massive ice storm this could be!!  It would be bad..I am home sick so I can blog all day..you people must feel very lucky.

  nwmowx the anwser is NO.

36 and thunder, heavy rain in Blue Springs. Over a 1/2" so far and still coming down. I predict 2" to 3" of snow by noon Wed.

love your name backwoods..lots of rain in unity loud thunder..making me long for spring

What time does GFS come out ??? ****** Usually around 10:00 am   Brett

Can someone give me a realistic amount of snow for South O.P.  ( South of 135th and east of Pflumm)?  I am not good with all of the weather lingo.  THANKS!!!!  Let's wish for MORE SNOW!!!!!!  ****** Two inches of snow after midnight, Brett

New blog!

NEW BLOG!

Dryslot, you are here. :)  I am sorry that you are sick. :(  We've had lightning and thunder since at least 7 AM.

Kristi

jesstone just an FYI..I predicted the kstate/ku game..superbowl..and the 1" or less on snow we got last week my comment was"I am the most accurate" so with all my prediction power i say 3-4 " with a layer of ice underneath..not fun.My thoughts are go by your milk/bread and watch it fall.

Glad ya like it dryslot. I'm originally from here but lived in the backwoods of Tenn. from '91 to '02. rain letting up a little as i post this ooops started falling hard again

Update from Trenton MO, sleet and snow mix started about 8:50 falling at a very good clip.  About 1/8 on ground at this point and it just thundered!  THIS IS AWESOME!!!!

Okay it is now trying to transition back to sleet... I think, it is like the huge flakes have partially melted, then refroze creating large sort of soft chunks of ice, and I just seen a lightning bolt, schools here are going to be letting out early, the highway patrol has already reported numerous accidents and urge people not to go out unless they absolutely have to.  Cue the twilight zone music please.

now some rain is mixing in as well, we have an inch and a half of "snow accum."

dryslot:
     Sounds like heaven!!!!  I hope you are right, maybe even more snow to top it off would be great too:)

move to the new blog

What is the word on the storm tracking south, to south Johnson County?  Is the cold front pushing the storm south?  How much sleet or snow do you think South JC will get when this is all over?

yeah, i hope the t-storms dont take all of our moisture away! LOL

New blogger.  Pretty heavy sleet in Platte City.

There sleet mixed in in OP...........occasionally.  Not steady.  Just periodic.  
Thunder too.  
This is so crazy!  Shift south two counties... lol