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getting light snow and moderate sleet here trenton turning the the ground white

Just yuchy old rain right now in Eastern Jackson County (24 and 291).  Temp around 34 degrees.  I'm still hoping for something fun!

DL

SOUTH!!!!!! If I could shout on here I would. Thanks for the udate and I will look forward to the graphics.

The ole 50 miler again as 50 miles could be the difference between a foot of heavy, wet snow and nothing. Now just bring it down to Northern Clay County and I am happy. Haven't seen a foot of snow since 1994.....had a 12 inch snow on Tuesday of one week and 14 on Friday of the same week in Rhode Island. Then on Sunday a nice crust of ice was thrown in. Funny story I picked up a Navy officer at the airport on Sunday night and told him about the snow and said most likely your car was plowed in. Drove him back to the War College and saw his car with snow up to the window line and frozen in. I was nice and gave him a ride home in the duty vehicle.

kane1070, don't shout, it won't come south, I guarantee it!

back to the mind games

Gary,
I must confess that you nailed the forecast on the thunderstorms.  When I saw you had thunderstorms in the forecast, I was like no way.  Good call!

Kristi

crazy lightning here

34F here in Olathe, So close to be freezing rain,an/or sleet.

kristi ..c'mon you had to see my predictions last week..i am on a hot streak ..should go to vegas but i have liqued running out of me at an alarming rate!!

Stupid questions.  But isn't the low spinning just east of Albuquerque NM?  and wouldn't that put the track further south (if the thing ever moves north)? **** Green Acres,  Great observation,  the models are trending the low a little further south, lets see if the GFS picks up on it.  The morning NAM was more promising for heavier snow all of KC.  Brett

South,south, south, south...if I say it enough it will happen...south, south, south, south....

dryslot I don't think you will find a bet on qpf in vegas. lol

its just going to rain and i live right by kci about 6 miles south

kellyann I think it just might. We will have to see.

where abouts Teamster83?  I think we are close to each other.  It is getting colder out there....

we will get some snow out of this in kc...just not that much, esp. on the south side.

dryslot:  I hope you are right on the 3-4" in South O.P. with the layer of ice underneath.  Sounds like a good night to stay in and enjoy family time.  BRING IT ON!!!!!!  The more the better.  

Gary, do you think dryslot's prediction for South O.P. (south of 135th and east of Pflumm) could be correct???  I am wishing it to come a little south:)  

when is the next model run that would tell us if it it moving one way the other

You are too funny, dryslot! LOL

Kristi

when is the next model run that would tell us if it it moving one way the other

WOW! Last Nights Blog really got out of hand. If only I didn't say much last Tuesday when we were expecting the last storm.

well done ,weather jaded, well done...those folks will bet on everything ya never know. I just really hope we don't get a lot of ice..but I think some of you secretly want ice..you know who you are!

Thought bloggers might be interested in this story:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080204/lf_nm_life/china_weather_dc

Coldest Winter in 100 years for China.  Seems like the other half of the globe is having a long winter as well...

you can bet on practically anything in vegas i bet if you presented the idea they would run with it! lmao brian1234 if you come on to this blog today I'm really interested in the storm chasing. :) email spaceotter@gmail.com here's to the models trending further south. just have to get it over that river aways and I'll be looking at a decent snow here in lenexa. :) come on give me one good storm before I move to phoenix. :)

It is now back to a sleety rain here in st. Joe.

My cousin dryslot and I plan to hang out for a while.  We plan to throw a wrench into this storm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

darn this global warming !!!

SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW!!!!!  I am thinking if I say it enought it might happen!!!!  I am in the Fort Osage area in Independence and we are at 1.1 inches of rain already and it is still coming down like crazy!  My brother had to drive to St. Joseph for work and they already sent them home because it is sleeting like mad.  Be careful up there!  I have to work tonight but I still want lots and lots of sleet and snow!

hey dry air missed ya at the upper level party!!   Lets unite our powers and stop this madness!!

Brett.  Thanks I am a novice but was able to pick up on Alb. NM loop.  Looks like the "spin" is moving more ESE than NE.  Hopefully when it turns it will track south of the metro.  Please tell me all of KC metro is in the bullseye.

GFS ROLLING OUT!

GFS model is starting to come out, probably 15 more minutes.

Come on GFS and South track, if not blow the darn storm into Nebraska and Iowa altogether and take the frustration along with it.
1-3 just isnt worth the hassle anymore!

Dry air is being pulled in a will result in a lull in the precipitation.  Has anyone seen this new product from the Nat'l Weather Service:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=webbriefing
From what they are showing the LOW appears farther South.  What do ya think?  

Come on GFS!  Just a little further south please...  

If you look at the radar trends, there isn't much precip after this last wave of heavy rain and not much building to the west.  I think we miss it!!  

I live  1 mile south of I 70 in Raytown. Currently it is 34.5 and it is raining moderately. Rain guage says .59!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I would love for this thing to trend  more SOUTH and put metro in the heavy snow band. The last few winters I have missed out. It is sure gets frustrating sometimes, we shall see.

The dragon is spewing as much POOF as he can. Take it up north. The dragon hates shoveling.

Well the GFS is showing a lot more moisture south.  Here's the 12 hour:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p12_012m.gif

Waiting for more data.....

I am concerned about the amount of ice we may get more so than the amount of snow.  I have the temp at 34 right now in NW Olathe, and it looks and feels like this could become a frozen form of precip at any moment.  Any idea on the threat of severe icing and ice damage for the area?

Jayhawk dont worry its goint to REBUILD!

jayhawk i hope!!  I think dry air and dry slot will fillin just nice

we have a pretty good coating of ice starting to form from the tress and on cars and there is alot of sleet on everything. saw a little snow and now it is back to frezzing rain and sleet.

LT sleet now;  grass is covered now; no just RAIN HITTING  my window still 32 degrees.  The radar has a big gap I notice redevelopent at a good clip north or With and east of Hutc KS . . . slush flakes now WOW hurting my accums. . . after this passes we will have a lull.

Gary how long will it take for things to fill back in?????

Jayhawk said:
If you look at the radar trends, there isn't much precip after this last wave of heavy rain and not much building to the west.  I think we miss it!!  


Remember the radar is in Storm Mode,for it to detect snow it really needs to be in Clear Air Mode.

I read the blog often....but have never posted anything.  I have a strange question for you....  If it would have been cold enough this morning to snow instead of rain....would we have had thunder and lightning along with snow?  Does that ever happen?

OH BOY the GFS IS PERFECT for snow THOUGH OUT THE METRO!!!!

Wow, I dont know if this is weather related, but I am in Grandview, close to 71 hwy and there has been sirens going off for 5 min or more, something bad must have happened!

Several hrs of mod- hvy snow!

And here's the 24 hour:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p24_024m.gif

Also, it would seem the freezing line would be on track with what Gary said earlier, but with more moisture this evening into tomorrow.  I would think this means considerably more snow for KC.

kellyann LIGHTNING probally hit the siren making them go off.  Happens more than you think.

i think this is a bust

Fire Dog, I don't thinks so, you can hear different sounding sirens at different times plus the horns honking.

I'm willing to place money on a bet that the Kansas Ciy metro - meaning within the I-435 loop - will not see more than 2.5" of snow out of this thing.

It's too wet - too warm. I don't care what the models say for tonight - we don't get storms with this kind of moisture in February. We have already got a boatload of moisture out of this - how much more can we possibly squeeze out of the atmosphere? Seriously - downtown probably won't even see an inch out of this thing.

Geez, they are going off again and the constant honking of their horns.

First two frames (hr 6 and 12) are still rain for KC...several hours of decent snow overnight would add up to 2-3" or so.

Just viewed the NWS web update that NorthofRiver mentions.  Lots of good information and I do like the maps they use.  But my preference will still always be Gary and the team for the most up-to-date and most accurate weather information.

i'm at school in trenton, and there is sleet mixing with pretty good size snowflakes. the ground is really white and its already really slick out there. wouldnt be surprised if they let classes out early.

Look at 18, 24, 30 rdub

And here's the 36hr:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p36_036m.gif

If I'm reading everything correctly, KC will have just under .75" of liquid equivalent after the freezing line has passed through.  Gary is 6" now realistic for most of KC Metro now?

I got 32 degrees in unity v.  lots of rain..better check the window well..crap i don't want to go outside I am sick.

GFS and NAM have significant precip in KC Metro and North after the colder air is south of us

well, I'm not at home, I'm at work right now...  I was outside at QT in Liberty getting my daily iced tea (although today's the day for hot chocolate), and I saw little ice pellets floating on past my feet as I was filling up.  It was mixed in with all the water it seemed like.  

It is currently 33 degrees here (well as of ten minutes ago) and I don't want to know how the roads are up toward my house listening to what previous bloggers have been saying.  I'm pretty far up north...  

I'm hoping for snow for everyone!!  (unless you don't want it :)

STILL has snow at the 36hr mark!

Kellyann,
Looks like an accident at 150 71 highway in Grandview.  I read about it on the traffic update on Kansascity.com.

Kristi

I looked. 30 hrs snow is very light. Even in the 18 and 24 hr frames the heavier snow is north of KC. KC will get some snow, but the amounts will be much heavier north.

Nasty, not all of that precip is after the freezing line passes through. That's for all 36 hours. Obviously some of that is falling as rain. **************** Rdub, I know Gary is posting some new thoughts soon. The GFS looks pretty impressive. Some of this does fall as rain...but temps really only need to cool a degree or two and it is snow. The ULL is also southeast of KC at a pretty good time on the GFS. Already a fun storm it is going to be even more fun tonight! Jeremy

I can't stand the suspense!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"STILL has snow at the 36hr mark!"

Are you sure? I don't see any precip over KC in this frame.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_036.shtml

Just checked my rain gauge and WOW!!!   1.40 inches in my backyard here in Grandview.   My side yard is almost under water...   The current temperature is 33 degrees..

Bill

34 degrees sill at 113th and cookingham drive

I think the 3-6" for the Metro might be good?

Does anyone think the cold front is moving in faster than before?  Is this what is pushing the storm either north or south?  Depending on the speed?  

Kellyann.  I monitor local fire and police.   There is an multi-car accident southbound Highway 71 just north of 155th.   MAST has requested mutual aid from Grandview and Belton.    

Folks - this is just the first sign of things to come.   Please keep a safe distance from the vehicle in front of you.  Also please slow down out there as the roads will only get worse not better.

The dragon wonders, what do you snow-lovin' types do the rest of the year? Hibernate?

Does Gary believe in the GFS?  I can't keep them all straight!  All I know is, I want some ice and some SNOW BABY!!!  LOTS and LOTS of SNOW in South O.P.  We keep getting missed and it makes me CRANKY!!!!  You don't Like me when I am CRANKY!!!!!:) ************ Gary is adding some thoughts soon. Personally I thought the 12Z GFS looked good. This is about the last run to look at then it is all nowcasting. Jeremy

Near 128th & Mur-Len, Olathe... 1.1" of rain so far, temp still ~33. Moderate rain continues to fall.

Kristy, you are right, there are flashing lights everywhere! It must be bad!! Sirens are once again going off. I had to go to my friends to drop off something and I had to go the outer road.

Bill, thanks for the report!

looks like no soccer practice for at least a week!!    does any one have a basement /room where 12 10 year olds can practice?

Bill, my yard is like a lake also, lol..

The GFS has us in the .35 to 1.00 for precip after the snow line is well south... .that doesn't include the time between the 12 and 18 hours with the transition to snow......

NAM had us more than that I believe

Tiny sleet pellets mixing in with heavy rain in Blue Springs---35 degrees still

heavysnow:  Let's hope the models keep trending this way!  :)

kellyann- I don't know about my yard, but I know that most of the parking lots are now swimmable...

1.14" of Rain so far by Olathe North HS.

Kellyann,
You live right off of 150 right?

Kristi

still 32 in unity..stay away ice!  

Good place to keep an eye on traffic
http://www.kcscout.net/

There's water standing in my yard too.

Kristi

poof go's the storm

Gary what are your thoughts?

hope your right teamster83

Its nowcasting time, no need for model runs anymore

The NAM is showing more precip towards the south.  .75 - 1.00 in the 36 hr which is after the cold air moves in.

Now getting a sleet/rain mix here in NW Olathe, and I am starting to get ice forming on surfaces.   ************* Hmmm...I live by K-7/10 in Olathe and there is no ice/sleet and hasn't been this morning. Still rain here with everything just wet. No ice. Jeremy

yes Kristy, between 150 and 155 on the west side

well, after class, I will check back and see what everyone has to say about any changes. Stay safe everyone!!

The dragon loves Teamster and of course DrySlot.  ;-)

POOFin' baby! POOFin'

It is my son's 1st Birthday today!!!!! My how the time flys by. If it does snow I going to make some snow ice cream. Yummy. He already loves to look out the window at the rain and the snow. He is truly fascinated by it.

Ahhh..the storm with the big precip did arrive.  Vindication.

Looking at the latest GFS...I see two things.

1.  The 500vort has moved on a more southern path.  Where it was projected that the ULL would come right over KC, it has now shifted back into its longwave.

Where it belongs.  I think folk have heard me time and again talk about Joplin where these things pass through.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_018l.gif

This is very good.

In addition, there was concern about the rain/snow line and temps.  I like the 18z temp profile.  The 850s were slow on the 00z run, so I am glad to see it has better intitialized this time.

So..from top to down, it is important to see the column and its temp progs.

First, surface...

At 33-34 degrees, we are marginal right now.  It looks like a bit later, is when the surface gets ready...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_012l.gif

Next up...the 850/700 levels.  This is the most critical level next to the surface...

Based on the latest GFS, it looks like it would be ready between 0Z and 6Z.  Probably right in between.  So, I will go with 03Z when it is really ready based on this prog.

In reading the soundings at KMCI, the 850 temps are very warm right now...47 degrees.  But, progged in the next three hours, it should go to 41 degrees.  If you figure a steady 2 degrees per hour, then you could get to a freezing mid layer by about 23Z-0Z.

Based on all this and treding it out...I would say it should be ready to turn over around 1-2Z or 7-8PM.

Now...because the track is a bit further south....well..you all have read enough...you know what a southern track could mean.

;-)

North of River,
The closest camera to the accident site is at 140th and 71 Highway.  Can't see the accident.  The scout does not show if traffic is slow or not on 71 highway south of 435.    

Kristi

"POOF" go the naysayers!  Keep casting your gloom over the city, it just adds to the precipitation!! lol

Neener Neener Neener, we're gonna get it baby!!

Actually the NAM has more than an inch after the rain/snow line is passed us

10am rainfall total 79th & Lackman: .92" *********** Thanks for sharing your total! Everyone keep us posted today! Jeremy

Be safe, Kellyann!  

Kristi

Scott those temps will faster when the front passes through though.... and if the low does go further south like the GFS and NAM have it now... .then it pulls that colder air in faster

Could somebody explain zulu time to me?  How does that match up with real time or military time? ************** 12Z is 6am 00Z is 6pm When the time changes 12Z will be 7am and 00Z will be 7pm. Jeremy

What is the word on the storm tracking south, to south Johnson County?  Is the cold front pushing the storm south?  How much sleet or snow do you think South JC will get when this is all over?

You're right Heavy.  I wasn't looking at ALL the maps.

FWIW, the Omaha NWS just upgraded them to a Winter Storm Warning. As of last night they were only calling for a couple inches in Omaha, now they are calling for 6-10. Don't know if that means the whole thing is further north then expected, or merely that there is more moisture in general in the region.

Scott, I agree, some decent snow tonight but not until then. Not gonna go poof, probably, but also probably not going to slam KC & points south with a foot of snow either.

Great analysis Scott. Let's see what changes the NWS does to the warnings and advisories.

Guys, the LRC is too subjective to be used as an accurate forecast tool at this stage. I am not saying the LRC does not exist - because it does exist. It's just too subjective. Too many things can come into play - temperature, winds, storm tracks, so forth.

I remember on this blog one time we were saying there was going to be a "MAJOR WINTER STORM somewhere in the area on February 2nd". Ended up being well south of Kansas City. And it wasn't really even that major.

2nd -- back in December I went on a limb and told everyone at work about this LRC and that it was going to be real exciting between Jan 20 and Feb 10 the cycle from early December was going to repeat with what we thought at that time was going to be a colder January air mass. So far it's already Feb 5th - we have 5 days until the end of that window - and all I have to back up my statement is 1.5" of snow last Tuesday.

It's there - it's just way to subjective.

Our rain gauge is up for the winter so I can't report any rainfall totals until spring. :(

Kristi

shell dont count your chickens before they hatch, we know this citys reputation, hell its not even snowing yet. this is gonna e a all rain event

how come gary you are not weighing in on the blog afer all it is your blog and you should be sharing some thought s with us thanks gary

Just over an inch of rain in the gauge this morning in southeast Olathe (161st & Mur-Len).  Standing water all over the place!

Scott you've mention Joplin, quite a few times, and from looking at this 15z RUC forecast 12 hours out the ULL appears even stronger:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/images/ruc_500_012m.gif

f00dl3,

I want to take a shot at that one.

Remind me later to go into your thoughts...as you know..I have plenty.  Right now, I am focusing on the storm...

The precip is not going to change to all snow until later.  The rain was in the forecast until this afternoon.

Kristi

Teamster83,
Why are you saying it's gonna be all rain when it is not even supposed to do the heavy snow until tonight?  They have been saying that for a while.  I didn't even know that it was gonna rain like this until I woke up this morning.  If the snow is supposed to be tonight, lets wait and watch!

Scott, Great Post! Are you sure you're not a meteorologist.

What is the word on the storm tracking south, to south Johnson County?  Is the cold front pushing the storm south?  How much sleet or snow do you think South JC will get when this is all over?

Gary's not weighing in because there writing us a new update based on the gfs and nam and the LRC of course.  Can someone just make it quit raining or snowing from about 230 to 330 this afternoon?  Should be alot of fun standing out at graveside ceremony in this stuff.

Gary's not weighing in because there writing us a new update based on the gfs and nam and the LRC of course.  Can someone just make it quit raining or snowing from about 230 to 330 this afternoon?  Should be alot of fun standing out at graveside ceremony in this stuff.

The LRC was to be active between Jan. 25th and Feb. 20th, according to Gary's 45-day forecast in early January.

Kristi

D.oes
O.ffer
M.inor
E.xceptions

I like your thinking heavysnow, I was guessing 2 to 3 inches but I now think 3 to 6 if I can change my prediction. This is my final prediction!

Okay, I haven't done much posting but always read everything. I'm at I-70 and Adams Dairy in Blue Springs and we have rain, it seems to be quite a bit of it too. I don't have a gage to measure it.
Truth is, I want tons of snow. When will it be my turn for snow. I'm tired of the dustings we seem to get. So, my question is....is there any chance of Blue Springs getting a decent amount of snow this time around?
Krista

f00dl3...what???  Are you forgetting about today?  Have you looked out the window?  I'd call this quite active!

nastyweather I don't claim to be a genius but looking at your map you just put up was a definite wow.  If that truly materializes I think the whole metro is in for it.

I would put 4 to 8 inches in the metro and I would guess some places even in the metro would see more than 8 just based off the new GFS and NAM.  From just south of the metro to the North will see the significant snows

I like what you are thinking heavysnow!!!

It is friggin windy out there!!

NEW BLOG!!

Doug,
You should see a lull in the precip around then.

Kristi

It's quite active - for rain today. Over an inch in spots in the metro. I know models are coming in saying other things - but with all this rain moisture being squeezed out I don't really believe that there will be enough moisture left tonight to produce more than 3" of snow in the metro when it gets cold enough after 7 or 8 PM tonight.

I wonder why a couple of you even read and participate in the blog if you are so adamant that nothing is going to happen.  Seems to me you are checking this quite often and that would mean to most that you are keeping your eye on what could still be shifting.  None of the snow was even supposed to start until this evening into tonight, so I think it's pretty ignorant to sit here boohooing about how crappy this area is when you don't even know what is to come yet today.  Gary is the most reliable in the midwest so why doesn't everyone south just stop complaining and wait to see what Gary and the team says.  Personally I am in the middle of this, and I wouldn't wish these road conditions on anyone!  

We have water standing in our backyard.  I would get a pic but it is too cold and windy!

Kristi

heavysnow, would this include Lees Summit ("south of the metro")?  I think the heaviest snows will be from downtown KC southward towards Harrisonville.  Track will be a little further south than what has been discussed.