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Snowstorm is taking direct aim on Kansas City

Good afternoon NBC Action Weather Bloggers,

We have already had over 1 inch of rain, thunderstorms, hail, snow and sleet up north, and windy and cold conditions.  We are very lucky that it wasn't 5 degrees colder or we would have had an ice storm.

The new data is just coming in.  We can see the storm on satellite movies.  This winter storm is taking direct aim on the Kansas City metro area.  I know this is hard for a lot of you to believe, but it is only a few hours away from beginning and everything points to a big snowstorm.  And, this storm is so strong at the surface that it will create quite a pressure gradient on the back side.  This could create blizzard conditions later tonight into Wednesday.

We are likely going to up our snowfall forecast totals, but we will wait until the last minute to make our final decision, so watch at 5 and 6 PM on NBC Action News tonight.

There are a lot of concerns as this storm approaches as well.  Road conditions could be very bad by morning.  It will be a tough winter day on Wednesday if this materializes like we think it will.

Once again, look at the satellite movie. This is a storm going through an transformation right now and it intensifies as it passes through us early on Wednesday.  The snow could last through noon on Wednesday.

We will update the blog with our snowfall forecast map between newscasts tonight.  And, bloggers, you know me by now, this is the first time I have really been excited about a snowstorm all season. Something, of course, still could take this storm off course, but I doubt it.

Gary

Published Tuesday, February 05, 2008 2:17 PM by glezak

Comments

 

mattmaisch said:

WOW!!!  This is hard to believe!  Won't count my chickens just yet, but if you're excited, than I'm excited!!!  Could it actually be????  Guess we'll be on the edge of our seats!

Matt.
February 5, 2008 2:31 PM
 

Suburban Sam said:

Gary.... Suburban Sam here... where do we look ayt the satellite movie?

Thanks....
February 5, 2008 2:31 PM
 

morganmom said:

Where can I see these satellite movies?
February 5, 2008 2:32 PM
 

WXSmithville said:

WOOHOO!  Finally a winter storm actually hits KC!  And of course, you guys were the only station to nail it!  A few of the others are calling for "at most" two inches for the 435 loop.  

I sure hope this is the big one!  LRC is taking it's revenge!  haha.  
February 5, 2008 2:32 PM
 

twister11 said:

Gary I was just looking at the most recent radar and I can see Oklahoma, and Kansas filling in significantly with snow!
February 5, 2008 2:32 PM
 

Scott said:

;-)
February 5, 2008 2:33 PM
 

Spanteach said:

Usually this would be fantastic news, but today it is definitely not. What do you think of my chances of making a flight out of KCI tomorrow at 1?
February 5, 2008 2:33 PM
 

jswart02 said:

Gary - Are you wearing your snow vest today?  :-)
February 5, 2008 2:33 PM
 

Weatherfly said:

WOW!  How much are you planning on upping your snow totals?
February 5, 2008 2:34 PM
 

kvluvalcsens said:

I read the blog all the time , my family makes fun of me for it so this is a first for me to say I'm so excited but so afraid it won't happen.  Too many disappointments this yr.
February 5, 2008 2:34 PM
 

Scott said:

Sam, I had this in the last blog...per your request...

This is a beautiful view of this ULL...

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ICT&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20080205&endTime=-1&duration=7
February 5, 2008 2:34 PM
 

NorthOfRiver said:

Maybe my psychic friend was right?  Frankly, I didn't believe her.
February 5, 2008 2:34 PM
 

morganmom said:

I hope you are wearing your snow vest. We adopted a dog last week and this will be her first snowstorm with us, can't wait to see her reaction.
February 5, 2008 2:35 PM
 

Scott said:

Gary, isn't the developing trowel a thing of beauty?  I knew this thing would slip south.  It had to.

;-)

-------------------

Scott,

There is no way we miss this one?

Gary

February 5, 2008 2:35 PM
 

shawn67 said:

"twister11 said:
Gary I was just looking at the most recent radar and I can see Oklahoma, and Kansas filling in significantly with snow!"

Yup Im seeing the same thing too....
February 5, 2008 2:35 PM
 

dkdm said:

WOOOHOO!!!  BRING IT ON!!!
February 5, 2008 2:35 PM
 

dkdm said:

WOOOHOO!!!  BRING IT ON!!!
February 5, 2008 2:36 PM
 

radman22 said:

Scotts radar movie from the previous blog was very nice to watch.   That site has been bookmarked from day 1 by me.   Thanks Scott
February 5, 2008 2:36 PM
 

PeterG said:

My niveustrak is reading 5.6 with a southward trajectory.  I predict around 17 inches of snow for N. KC and 6 - 10 inches of snow for South KC and Johnson County.
February 5, 2008 2:36 PM
 

Brad said:

Hi Gary.  I live a few miles south of topeka...do we get to join the 'fun'.  The trend does seem to keep moving the heavy band a little further south.  

Enjoy your storm.
February 5, 2008 2:37 PM
 

shoedog said:

NWS now has a video update loaded at 2 pm.  It shows the low staying farther south.  It has band os 8-12 inches of snow from Airport north.  5-7 from SW to NE slice through the KC downtown and 3-5 for south side less then 3 inches from Butler south.
February 5, 2008 2:37 PM
 

Melis89 said:

What does it look like Warrensburg will get?  Are we still too far south to get a lot of accumulation?  Thanks!
February 5, 2008 2:37 PM
 

Scott said:

February 5, 2008 2:37 PM
 

RickMckc said:

NorthOfRiver, maybe she should start the Psychic Friends Weather Network? :)

Gary, now THAT - "direct aim" "big snowstorm" - is a commitment!
February 5, 2008 2:38 PM
 

lvsnow said:

I'm with WXSSmithville, WOOHOO!
February 5, 2008 2:38 PM
 

shoedog said:

Thanks Scott, I was just going back to get the link but you beat me to it!
February 5, 2008 2:38 PM
 

Emmysmom said:

So is this still going to have a freezing rain/sleet changeover?
If so, when do you think that will happen?
When do you expect the snow to come in?

I live up north near Liberty and was hoping to get through rush hour, to the grocery store and home before it starts up and gets too slick.
February 5, 2008 2:39 PM
 

dryslot said:

rats!!!  here is hoping i form and slow it down!!  ok so 8 votes for no school tom.
February 5, 2008 2:40 PM
 

kvluvalcsens said:

So when should it hit here in L.S. i have plans so i can't watch at 5 plz tell me!!!!
February 5, 2008 2:41 PM
 

Golf Nut said:

Hi Gary,

Thanks for the latest update. I look forward to watching my kids and dogs playing in the snow! Hopefully we will see a massive snow storm. If it snows this evening will it fit in with your LRC?

Mike
February 5, 2008 2:42 PM
 

bgmike said:

Boys and Girls, if Gary is excited then you can take it to the bank.  For him even to mention that he is excited is HUGE.  Get the shovels ready :).
February 5, 2008 2:43 PM
 

kellyann said:

so am I right in thinking that Grandview is not going to be in the direct hit with a big snowstorm?

The sirens from emergency vehicles are crazy again in Grandview for some reason.
February 5, 2008 2:44 PM
 

Suburban Sam said:

Scott,

Very nice thanks for the info..... just think if they would have had stuff this nice back in the 70s... like far out man! Instead of the LRC it would have been LSD... ;-)

Get your boots on everybody!

SS...Out!
February 5, 2008 2:44 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I take a nap and things begin to change with the storm.  It would be nice to get a nice snowfall here.

Kristi
February 5, 2008 2:45 PM
 

RodB said:

DUDE!  This is going to be SWEET!
February 5, 2008 2:46 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Sam,
That was hilarious!!!!!
February 5, 2008 2:47 PM
 

USMCRanchGirl said:

Thanks for the satellite links Scott.  How fun to watch.  I'm beginning to see why Gary and the team get so excited about their predictions and how fun it can be to see how accurate you are.  Keep up the great work guys ... keeping my fingers crossed for a good snow fall here in Peculiar!
February 5, 2008 2:49 PM
 

Emmysmom said:

I just wish I could share in all of the excitement you guys are experiencing with this snow, but I just can't.  I do love snow if it falls on a Saturday evening, when I dont have to get out in it...  I envy you all, but I'm scared to death!  : )
February 5, 2008 2:50 PM
 

KellyofIndependence said:

WOW!  your going way out on a limb Gary. I still don't see it happening and I have been looking at those movies all day. I just don't see it making  it all the way to the KC Metro and I still see that batch in western Kansas missing us to the North. That little patch of precip near OKC needs to do 3 things......grow, slow down and turn more to the north. Otherwise a just can't see more than 1-2 inches in the 435 Loop

I hope I am wrong  because I do love snow but I just can't buy this one especially the way things have gone this year or for about the last decade for that matter.
February 5, 2008 2:52 PM
 

JPnKC said:

Weather team or Scott-

What is a trowel and where can you see it??

Thanks for the update!
February 5, 2008 2:52 PM
 

beckysma said:

Thank you for the update.

How is rush hour looking tonight??

February 5, 2008 2:53 PM
 

Fred said:

Kelly,

Like you, I have been burned to often this year with storm forecasts...I refuse to get excited until the snow starts to fall...

I do sincerely hope it does, and I guess I just have to trust Gary and his snow vest.

Fred
February 5, 2008 2:54 PM
 

plazajayhawk said:

Some of the "other stations" are making me worry!  They are not predicting as much.  I really would love to have the day off work tomorrow so I am hoping for snow!!
February 5, 2008 2:55 PM
 

Shawn at KU said:

I am stoked.  Finally!
February 5, 2008 2:55 PM
 

nastyweather said:

BRING IT ON!  Gary's excited =  I'm excited.
February 5, 2008 2:55 PM
 

N2mountains said:

When does Jackson county get a warnng issued?
February 5, 2008 2:57 PM
 

snowblind said:

Here in Raytown, so far, we picked up 1.06 .
My current temp. is 35.1 Lets hope the colder air saturates the column quicker!! Bring on the heavy snows for the whole metro!!
February 5, 2008 2:58 PM
 

PatsSoxCelts said:

YES! FINALY A SNOWSTORM!
February 5, 2008 2:58 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

Well -- ok the fact that it is going to be bad Wednesday morning changes things. I'm off work SUN/MON/TUE so Mother Nature not want it to snow on those days. But if its a WED/THU/FRI/SAT -- then all hell can break loose.

I'm still thinking 1-3... but that may change.
February 5, 2008 2:58 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Gary,
I love to see how excited everyone gets when you are excited!  I know you are all working hard today to make every prediction correct.  We all have faith in you.  Keep up the good work and we will see you at 5 on tv!!
February 5, 2008 2:58 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Kellyann,
According to a traffic site, there's an accident on 71 highway near 155th St.

Kristi
February 5, 2008 2:59 PM
 

Barbara said:

Ugh...not looking forward to the snow.  
February 5, 2008 3:00 PM
 

mattmaisch said:

Per the 18Z NAM...This looks pretty good..

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_MESO-ETA212_SFC_SNOWDEPTH_36HR.gif


Matt
February 5, 2008 3:01 PM
 

dryslot said:

kristi..a nap does sound good i still am with 3 " for lees summit
February 5, 2008 3:02 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Yeah my 3-hour nap was great considering I only had 1 hr of sleep last night. LOL

Kristi
February 5, 2008 3:05 PM
 

Stormdog said:

Stormdog - Remember all, the storm will do what it will do, regardless of models, forecasts, and wishing, both positive and negative.  Remember the saying: "IT AIN'T OVER TIL THE FAT LADY SINGS!!!"  :)

What happens, happens.

Cheers,
Dog
February 5, 2008 3:05 PM
 

KCHusker said:

NWS is still saying 2-4 inches in LS. That is not a snow storm to me. :-(
February 5, 2008 3:05 PM
 

LVStormSpotter said:

NWS puts me in Columbia in 1-3 inches. so I guess we will get some snow. Not half as much as you but its something.
February 5, 2008 3:06 PM
 

Husky07 said:

im thinking 5 for Lee's Summit
February 5, 2008 3:06 PM
 

Barbara said:

Did someone say "nap?"  I could use one of those!
February 5, 2008 3:06 PM
 

Luthur said:

I'm not budging from my 2 inches.  Gary didn't change his forecast.  He wrote he is likely to do so in a couple hours.  He was still looking over data.
February 5, 2008 3:06 PM
 

dryslot said:

barbara i am with you..hey LS residents slow down on the roads if they get bad..you know the crews take forever out here
February 5, 2008 3:07 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Tornado Warning for down around Branson.

Kristi
February 5, 2008 3:09 PM
 

Chris said:

February 5, 2008 3:09 PM
 

dryslot said:

kristi  you must have partied hard last night???  hope it was fun
February 5, 2008 3:09 PM
 

simplykristi said:

NWS will update its forecast la a little later.

Kristi
February 5, 2008 3:10 PM
 

stjoeattorney said:

my 10-14 incher surronded by 8-10 been calling it for 5 weeks we have 2 inches now 31 outside and green blob on radar heading our way. . . we will know in the an or by tonite at 6-8 pm.
February 5, 2008 3:10 PM
 

Barbara said:

Tornado Warning?  Wow.  
February 5, 2008 3:10 PM
 

simplykristi said:

No partying...  I am too old for that. LOL

Kristi
February 5, 2008 3:10 PM
 

homerun said:

Gary and the weather team---what about west of you to Topeka?--are we in the dry slot or in your general area of a major storm.  Thanks Michael/Berryton
February 5, 2008 3:12 PM
 

cindylouwho said:

Need help!  Anyone have the address for a live feed for S.W. Mo?  I think they should be on now since they are tornado warned for Stone Co.  
February 5, 2008 3:12 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Brabara,
There's a tornado watch for extreme southern MO.  There are flash flood warnings for in and around Springfield.

Kristi
February 5, 2008 3:12 PM
 

Sadie said:

Other stations are saying 2-6", with the 6" in the far NW side of the metro.

-------------

We always wonder why you care about the other stations?

Gary 

February 5, 2008 3:13 PM
 

kcroyals05 said:

I echo what "Dryslot" stated about slowing down out there.   They just cleared a 1 car rollover on 71 Highway.  Cause of the accident was speed...   So please slow down out there...

I am monitoring Grandview, Belton, Raytown, Lee's Summit Fire at this time, if I hear that the roads are getting any worse than they are right now, I'll post that information...

Stay safe...
February 5, 2008 3:13 PM
 

sandy said:

Gary,  
What does this mean for NE Kansas.  We were in you 6"+ snow total earlier.
Our snow ended about 10:30 and then we had a light mist coming down that made streets very very slick.  Now at 3pm we are getting a lot a sleet coming down with pretty strong winds.  
We still have tree limbs lining our streets from the ice storm in December!
February 5, 2008 3:14 PM
 

NorthOfRiver said:

If you look at this whole thing, big picture, it is almost a little frightening.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
February 5, 2008 3:15 PM
 

brian1234 said:

 
with all the heavy rain we have had today and will continue to have, it will be difficult for the snow to really accumulate, the rain helps keep the ground from getting cold enough for the precip to start mounting up. The good news is that the streets should not be that much of a problem.it will just be a shushy mess till late tonight, but i guess it depends how fast and massive the cold front really pushes in. Does anyone have any thoughts on that?
February 5, 2008 3:16 PM
 

PatsSoxCelts said:

NWS will update their forcast.
February 5, 2008 3:18 PM
 

dryslot said:

kc royals..thanks!!!   yeah plese let us know if they get worse..i am 33 and drive like i am 100 years old i got 5 kids to feed so i always take it slow...
February 5, 2008 3:19 PM
 

PatsSoxCelts said:

Gary, when do you expect the snow up north to start?
February 5, 2008 3:20 PM
 

Brett34 said:

yes YES yes!
IM ON VACATION, IM STAYING UP ALL NIGHT!  THIS WILL BE ONE TO REMEMBER.
This was an update I was waiting for!! YAY for us !  
Enjoy it snow monsters.
Here in Olathe we have strong NW winds now, drizzle.
That one map on the last blog showed 14-20"  in are area- LOL, I dont think there will be that much.  Anything past 3" will be the biggest I have seen yet in Olathe.  
I am going to enjoy this one, no worries of getting up at 5am for work! YES!
February 5, 2008 3:20 PM
 

Weathergasm said:

Giving a shot out to all my homies at Tigerboard who are monitoring the snowgasm. Peace out, TBers and orgasmics!
February 5, 2008 3:22 PM
 

backwoods said:

I agree Brian1234, the temps would have to drop quick so when it did start to snow it would all stick. We've had well over a inch of rain here in Blue Springs.
February 5, 2008 3:22 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I don't have to worry about driving since I don't drive due to vision problems.  I worry about my dad driving.  He will be home long before it starts getting bad.

Kristi
February 5, 2008 3:23 PM
 

bewild79 said:

dryslot,
Don't feel bad...I am almost 29 and my husband makes fun of me for driving like that too...this stuff scares the hell out of me to drive in...not necessarily me, but alot of the time other people.  Kinda like the wreck that was posted earlier.  SLOW DOWN PEOPLE.  Some of us do think of our families and kids that we want to go home and see.
February 5, 2008 3:23 PM
 

orgirl69 said:

I was in one of these February storms on my way back from Branson a few years ago.  Scary stuff.  Tornado warnings in Kimberling City, wicked winds and hail in Reeds Spring, thunder ice in Pierce City and heavy snow by the time I got to Joplin.  CRAZY!  Looking forward to a great snowstorm tonight!
February 5, 2008 3:24 PM
 

WatchinInde said:

How will the huge hole between Northern KS and OK border get filled in?
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

At this time looks like a small storm, but I am a novice.

Any comments?
February 5, 2008 3:24 PM
 

Brett34 said:

I hope this the "perfect snow" the big flakes.   Im not going nowhere... glued to blog and radar ALL NIGHT!
February 5, 2008 3:25 PM
 

chfs327 said:

5-8 inches

IT HAPPENING ALL OVER AGAIN. Once again the NWS thinks im Right. 2 times in 2 weeks in 2 different snow storms

ALSO I HAVE BEEN OFFICALLY DECLARED THE OFFICAL WEATHER MAN FR THE OLATHE SCHOOL DISRICT BECAUSE DR. ALLTHE DISTRICT SUPERNTENDENT SAID SO

SO HAPPY IN OLATHE. 15 YEARS OLD BABY
February 5, 2008 3:26 PM
 

Brett34 said:

I wonder why NWS hasn't extended warning south??
February 5, 2008 3:26 PM
 

PatsSoxCelts said:

Where is the snow coming from?
February 5, 2008 3:27 PM
 

Brett34 said:

WatchinInde:  OH it will trust me.  Its in transition mode as we speak.  
February 5, 2008 3:29 PM
 

Green Acres said:

Huge area of moisture extending from OK City all the way back to Scott City KS and heading ENE.  It's coming.  Temp OKC - 37 degrees, Temp - Wichita 32 degrees, Temp - Scott City, 22 degrees and snowing heavily.
February 5, 2008 3:29 PM
 

snowblind said:

Shouldnt  the NWS issue storm warning for the metro instead WWA?
February 5, 2008 3:29 PM
 

Allie said:

We here in Lancaster, Kansas are hoping for LOTS of snow.  The country roads are horrible now so lets throw in a bunch of snow so we can all stay home!!
February 5, 2008 3:30 PM
 

Barbara said:

At least that cold rain has stopped.  
February 5, 2008 3:30 PM
 

simplykristi said:

NWS has not updated yet but it will.  Give it time. :)

Kristi
February 5, 2008 3:31 PM
 

subby64735 said:

CINDYLOUWHO:

http://www.ky3.com/      This is where I go to get up to the minute info on storms in the south.  Hope this helps.  Jim in Clinton
February 5, 2008 3:32 PM
 

Brett34 said:

North Kansas City and North is under the warning.  I expect this will be extended south.  I would not be suprised to see a heavy snow warning issued somewhere near KC.
February 5, 2008 3:33 PM
 

subby64735 said:

check out radar on NWS around north of Joplin....wild radar image with a Curly Q..Jim in Clinton
February 5, 2008 3:33 PM
 

RDub said:

NWS just issued the afternoon forecast. Still saying 4-6" for Jo Co KS.
February 5, 2008 3:34 PM
 

sertorius said:

Good late afternoon to you Gary, Brett, Jeremy, and Jeff-how are you holding up?? Excellent Blog update-thanks so much for all the information!!!

Quick check in before taking the boys to their activities:

Temperature is currently hovering around 32 and our wind has shifted to the North and is beginning to gust a bit.

Here goes nothing-It's go time as The Teen Titans would say!!!  The water vapor imagery is incredible-that thing is blossoming big time!!! This is going to be something to track and watch unfold!!!!

Have a great evening!!

Bill has just reverted back to a 6 year old kid in Lawrence!!!!
February 5, 2008 3:34 PM
 

NorthOfRiver said:

http://www.360wichita.com/wichitacam/
looks like it is starting to snow in wichita
February 5, 2008 3:34 PM
 

TheBrad84 said:

NWS just changed the Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning for Douglas County, saying 4 to 7 inches are likely to fall tonight, with locally heavier amounts possible.
February 5, 2008 3:35 PM
 

subby64735 said:

winds must be nuts down around the joplin area!! Jim in Clinton
February 5, 2008 3:35 PM
 

Johnk24 said:

when do u think the dry slot will fill in?
February 5, 2008 3:36 PM
 

JPnKC said:

TOP has extended the WSW further South in their CWA
February 5, 2008 3:38 PM
 

Eswar said:

1.12 inches of rain today so far at 151st and Mur-Len in Olathe?  

What time tonight will the heaviest of the snow fall?

Thanks, Eswar
February 5, 2008 3:39 PM
 

NorthOfRiver said:

The nationwide warnings map looks like an Easter Basket
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/
February 5, 2008 3:40 PM
 

JPnKC said:

Dry slot forecast to be in Southeast KS and Southern MO- should not effect the metro area
February 5, 2008 3:40 PM
 

goatlady said:

my goats are all due to kid anytime so the dry slot will fill in rapidly about 5 min before they start labor
February 5, 2008 3:40 PM
 

radman22 said:

I noticed the NWS has lowered the totals with its afternoon update.  What was once 3-5" in JOCO, is now 2-4"
February 5, 2008 3:41 PM
 

RickMckc said:

Brian1234 - if the models are correct, the temp is going to quickly fall. With a heavy snow, that might be enough to overcome melting, i.e. a flash freeze. Maybe we'd only lose an inch at most? Just my hobbyist opinion ...
February 5, 2008 3:42 PM
 

GreyMikeofKV said:

Just empted the guage from 0900 until 1525, had .84 of all kinds of rain, sleet, snow, in NE part of MO, the temp has held around 33 and still holding..... Oh, about 55 days ago, had a good amout of ice! Hope it will be snow this time!  Sure enjoy watching NBC Actions News, but the forecasts are awesome!  Thank YOU
February 5, 2008 3:43 PM
 

Braysmama said:

Don't know if anybody asked about flight's yet, but my family drove all the way up from Springfield this afternoon and they have a flight at 7:00 am tomorrow. Does it look ok for them?
February 5, 2008 3:46 PM
 

Braysmama said:

Still seeing forecast's that Cass/Johnson counties not seeing over an inch...
February 5, 2008 3:48 PM
 

NorthOfRiver said:

Braysmama
http://flykci.com/
check that, it will have latest information
February 5, 2008 3:48 PM
 

shawn67 said:

"radman22 said:
I noticed the NWS has lowered the totals with its afternoon update.  What was once 3-5" in JOCO, is now 2-4""

No they haven't ....Forecast is the same as it has been all day...They usually hoist any new warnings in conjunction with the updated forecast discussion which has not been released as of yet...let's see what happens in the next hour.
February 5, 2008 3:48 PM
 

nastyweather said:

Looks the GFS is now pulling the snow NE of KC, but KC is still in a nice band.  Can't wait to see what Gary's forecast shows at 5:20pm.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p24_030m.gif
February 5, 2008 3:49 PM
 

JOCOMIKE said:

What the latest for Olathe.
February 5, 2008 3:49 PM
 

radman22 said:

While the NWS site has us 2-4", the Weatherunderground has us getting 4-6"

February 5, 2008 3:49 PM
 

Braysmama said:

Oh yeah...rainfall total of 1.8 in Kingsville...
February 5, 2008 3:50 PM
 

bellmartin said:

OK, I can hold out no longer. I've become addicted to this blog in the past month or two. By the way, I've looked at that "other" blog... really, honestly, they seem dysfunctional. Here, though, it's such a nice group of people with so many experts sprinkled through it, it's a pleasure to read. And, of course, being led by Gary, how could it go wrong on either count?

Part of what's making this event so exciting was that crashing feeling we got last night of "here we go YET again," when a storm that looked so promising for a day suddenly has everyone feeling let down. I know this event hasn't hit yet, but it's thrilling that for once this year it's pulled back in our favor!

As a teacher, I've always loved snow days as much as when I was a student. Let's have one tomorrow, for everyone!
February 5, 2008 3:51 PM
 

Jayhawk Mel said:

I'm glad to see that Lawrence just got put into the Winter Storm Warning - we were in an advisory up until about thirty minutes ago. KU has yet to cancel any classes this winter! Come on snow!
February 5, 2008 3:51 PM
 

Luthur said:

""radman22 said:
I noticed the NWS has lowered the totals with its afternoon update.  What was once 3-5" in JOCO, is now 2-4""

No they haven't ....Forecast is the same as it has been all day...They usually hoist any new warnings in conjunction with the updated forecast discussion which has not been released as of yet...let's see what happens in the next hour. "

Yeah they did.  It was 3 -5" about 45 minutes ago. It was 2-4" prior to that.
February 5, 2008 3:52 PM
 

JOCOMIKE said:

Sure would love to see 12 or more.
February 5, 2008 3:52 PM
 

Braysmama said:

Thanks for the link NorthofRiver!!
February 5, 2008 3:52 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

Dont forget everyone this is the OFF HR RUNS.
February 5, 2008 3:52 PM
 

WebDesigner said:

People. It's coming. It's like the movie Independence Day. The big spaceship is coming up from Oklahoma.

Gary is so right on this. It's apparent that this one will have a large pressure gradient pushing in from the backside.

The transformation is beginning.

Save yourselves!
February 5, 2008 3:52 PM
 

radman22 said:

I swear it was 2-4" for the last 1/2 hr, now its back to 3-5"    I must be going crazy!!
February 5, 2008 3:52 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

i dont know how up to date this is, but since kshb is withholding their updated forecast, here is the nws'

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=winterwx

one thing to note is that they are suggesting that there could be a southern deviation of the storm track.
February 5, 2008 3:52 PM
 

radman22 said:

I love the new instant post.   I hit submit and there is my latest post, nice update.
February 5, 2008 3:53 PM
 

JOCOMIKE said:

What is Garys latest predictions?
February 5, 2008 3:54 PM
 

marlina10 said:

Do you think the NWS will put Johnson County in a Winter Storm Warning soon?
February 5, 2008 3:55 PM
 

radman22 said:

He has made no predictions as of late, will have to watch at 5
February 5, 2008 3:55 PM
 

Braysmama said:

NWS forecast for me in Kingsville... NO SNOW!!! Are we supposed to get any accumulatios!?
February 5, 2008 3:56 PM
 

KSCityKitty said:

Hmm, I am heading out of town for a meeting tomorrow....c'mon snow, cancel my flight!!!!!
February 5, 2008 3:56 PM
 

WebDesigner said:

JoCo appears to be right on the edge. I would say they will soon given they predict it will shift south.
February 5, 2008 3:56 PM
 

Bryan said:

yes they will update warnings soon
February 5, 2008 3:56 PM
 

MusicInOlathe said:

First time blogger.  I've been reading this thing for the past 4 months or so.  Being a teacher it sure helps!  I've got a 3rd grade music program tonight at 7:00 p.m. Do we think I'll be iced in by the time it's over?
February 5, 2008 3:57 PM
 

RickMckc said:

Hmmm ... this 18Z doesn't look quite as nice as the 12z ...

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

Modelitis is a terrible disease!
February 5, 2008 3:58 PM
 

northleeland said:

Temps dropping in the Northland.  It is 32.9 at North 108th and Summit.....bring on the snow!!
February 5, 2008 3:59 PM
 

radman22 said:

RickMckc:   It still looks like a nice band of 6"+
February 5, 2008 4:01 PM
 

sdcurt said:

Gary, I've been watching you for a while and I've always heard you get so excited about big storms, either snow or thunderstorms.  However, I don't think I've ever heard you say why you get so excited.  Would you please appease my curiousity.  Thanks.
February 5, 2008 4:02 PM
 

Dweaver319 said:

Sirens have been going off in Kimberling City. Activity down near Blue Eye on the border of Missouri. No damge and already past Branson area. Just heavy rain now.
February 5, 2008 4:02 PM
 

JOCOMIKE said:

How do you read that map.  
February 5, 2008 4:02 PM
 

bellgolf08 said:

well i hope the kc people have fun with this one. the SE gets rain lots and lots of rain.... :(
February 5, 2008 4:02 PM
 

kellyann said:

Pvt..is this what you think south KC (grandview) will end up with or do you also think the storm will trend south ?
February 5, 2008 4:05 PM
 

radman22 said:

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF KANSAS... NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN IOWA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AMOUNTS LOCALLY HIGHER THAN 10 INCHES...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF KANSAS CITY TO NEAR KIRKSVILLE. IN
ADDITION...STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL DROP SHARPLY SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO
KIRKSVILLE LINE. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS STORM MAY TAKE A TRACK
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED HIGHER
AND WINTER ADVISORIES UPGRADED.
February 5, 2008 4:05 PM
 

twister11 said:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CST
WEDNESDAY.

THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM
WITH THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE METRO. ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT
WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE TRACK OF THE STORM
MAY GO FURTHER SOUTH. IF THAT IS THE CASE...UPGRADES TO THE
ADVISORIES AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING. THE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY MORNING


*******************************
Now Im really confused, I thought the highest totals were supposed to be north of the metro?
February 5, 2008 4:10 PM
 

Braysmama said:

So, no snow south/southeast of KC metro?? :(
February 5, 2008 4:11 PM
 

KellyofIndependence said:

when the NWS issues a Winter Storm Warning for Johnson and Jackson counties.....it will be the final KISS-O-DEATH for this storm system and all will bow to the DRYSLOT.  LOL
February 5, 2008 4:11 PM
 

spaceotteradam said:

maybe I'm speaking out of turn sdcurt but I think all people who get excited about storms enjoy the awesome power that nature can unleash and watching the forces that cause that power come together. I know that's what it is for me. Oh and someone asked yesterday about accessing the blog via mobile. I access it through a Windows mobile 5 smart phone. works great! could probably find one on craigslist or ebay pretty cheap. can view radar also but it has to be dialup or no java radar. most sites have mobile capable versions now.
February 5, 2008 4:12 PM
 

N2mountains said:

I think NWS is covering there bottom as they were really off the mark last time. Is this thing shifting a bit further south and will the warning criteria extend into Jackson county soon?
February 5, 2008 4:12 PM
 

Brent said:

Yay I can't believe it!!! everyone else is lowering their totals!

this may just be my snowstorm!

but Gary....the radar looks pathetic...
February 5, 2008 4:12 PM
 

Bscott32 said:

First time blogger, long time reader.  Gary you seem confident that we are going to get it this time.  I have a Lawn and Landscape business and we do snow removal.  Just wandering how much you think we will have in Johnson County and when will it stop?  It is 34 degrees in Olathe and Just a little drizzle.  Keep up the good work, you guys are the best in the City!
February 5, 2008 4:13 PM
 

N2mountains said:

When are things going to pop here in KC
Radar is silent and nothing happening!!!!
February 5, 2008 4:13 PM
 

radman22 said:

LOL Kelly,   You are so right!!!
February 5, 2008 4:13 PM
 

weatherjaded said:

This minute by minute of speculation is giving me butterflies... I am out until 5o'clock forecast.
February 5, 2008 4:14 PM
 

simplykristi said:

February 5, 2008 4:15 PM
 

OPGary said:

Wednesday is my birthday, and I can't think of a better present than waking up to a foot of fresh snow. However, I am supposed to drive to Tennessee on Thursday, and I'm a bit nervous about the driving conditions. Some people are just never happy, lol.
February 5, 2008 4:17 PM
 

WebDesigner said:

Ok, in reading that, it sounds like southern parts of metro KC are going to get slammed.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE METRO. ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT
WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE TRACK OF THE STORM
MAY GO FURTHER SOUTH. IF THAT IS THE CASE...UPGRADES TO THE
ADVISORIES AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING. THE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY MORNING.
February 5, 2008 4:20 PM
 

twister11 said:

Kristi, It boldly says the south part of the metro will get the heaviest snow.
February 5, 2008 4:21 PM
 

Jessica said:

I can't wait to hear the "final decision" on snowfall totals.  If anyone can nail it, Gary can.
February 5, 2008 4:22 PM
 

mbmeek said:

There is going to be a problem...temperatures, dry air, a slight shift north, you name it. Please metro residents, temper your enthusiasm...this is not happening.
February 5, 2008 4:22 PM
 

JOCOMIKE said:

I sure hope we dont get hosed by another storm system.  
February 5, 2008 4:22 PM
 

Amanda said:

So we're telling all the kids that they need to sleep with their pj's inside out and with a spoon under their pillow. Earlier today, we did the snow day dance!

Here's hoping for a SNOW DAY!!

Cowabunga dude!
February 5, 2008 4:23 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Yup, that's what I am thinking, twister,  That's why I wanted people to read the advisory.

Kristi
February 5, 2008 4:24 PM
 

N2mountains said:

Yes it says all of that, but indicates the north as well gets the most, and the wording of the south track indicates that it may extend south, or may leave altogther. This wording they used it quite vague and many ways of reading things into it.  Go with Gary......
February 5, 2008 4:24 PM
 

weatherjoe said:

Let's consider the source the NWS is often behind the curve.
February 5, 2008 4:24 PM
 

twister11 said:

ooh. ok.
February 5, 2008 4:25 PM
 

twister11 said:

ooh. ok.
February 5, 2008 4:25 PM
 

RDub said:

I think that's a mistake from NWS and they meant to say "northern parts" of the metro. If they really thought the heaviest would be south, they would have already upgraded the advisories for Johnson County. Or at least that's how I see it.
February 5, 2008 4:25 PM
 

WebDesigner said:

mbmeek / didn't you hear Gary???
"Something, of course, still could take this storm off course, but I doubt it."

He DOUBTS anything will take it off course.
February 5, 2008 4:25 PM
 

Green Acres said:

NWS is waiting for KSHB's next move.  
February 5, 2008 4:25 PM
 

Hushpook said:

Can certainly see why forecasting this storm is so tricky. NWS has St Joe in a 10"+ band. Clinton, MO, just 140 miles southeast, is in a 1-3" band. You literally could have a foot in St Joe, and 140 miles away get nothing. Truly amazing.
February 5, 2008 4:26 PM
 

nastyweather said:

I don't pretend to know what's going to happen with this storm but this ULL at 3am in the morning is going to be a real monster:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/images/ruc_500_012m.gif
February 5, 2008 4:26 PM
 

twister11 said:

You can not discount the fact that the south has seen their share of the heaviest parts of a storm. In reality, the storm really could be taking a more southerly track, as described by Gary, and the south may get higher totals than expected.
February 5, 2008 4:27 PM
 

shoedog said:

Where are you seeing the south part of metro will get heaviest snows, I haven't seen that and I see NWS still has Johnson County KS under winter weather advisory with 3-5 inches.
February 5, 2008 4:27 PM
 

TomTom said:

first time ever posting, people settle down if its gonna happen its gonna happen if its not gonna happen its not gonna happen.  Let nature take its course, i love snow as much as the next guy but my god, you would think by some of your comments the end of days is coming.........SETTLE DOWN!!!
February 5, 2008 4:28 PM
 

turksandcaicos said:

Look at the back edge of the low this storm is rapidly intensifying.  The snow is wrapping up near the southwest ks oklahoma border with moisture extending out in front up near wichita.  I expect an extended 8-12 hour snowfall with this feature.  Watch out for this one its going to be big. Gary is RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
February 5, 2008 4:28 PM
 

Brent said:

"Brett34 said:
I wonder why NWS hasn't extended warning south??"

me too
February 5, 2008 4:28 PM
 

RDub said:

The graphic (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=winterwx) clearly shows heavier amounts in the northern part of the metro. I think the wording in the advisory was just a mistake and they meant to say "northern"...but they are also saying the track may shift south.
February 5, 2008 4:28 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Gary has had this storm timed perfectly so far.  NWS is the only one who issues watches, warnings, and advisories.  Another station just upped its total for the metro.  I don't normally watch other stations but my dad likes to watch the news at 4.  Then he watches Channel 41 and Gary's forecast at 5 an 6.

Kristi
February 5, 2008 4:29 PM
 

west winds said:

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CST
WEDNESDAY.

THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM
WITH THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE METRO. ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT
WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE TRACK OF THE STORM
MAY GO FURTHER SOUTH. IF THAT IS THE CASE...UPGRADES TO THE
ADVISORIES AND SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING. THE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD THIS EVENING...ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED.
February 5, 2008 4:30 PM
 

shellmeister said:

I think Gary and any other people that are interested in Meteorology get excited because it is an awesome sight to see "Mother Nature" do whatever she wants!  The power and force of nature is amazing to watch unfold before our very eyes!  To try and actually succeed at predicting with such accuracy these events must be extremely gratifying (and I don't mean in a snobbish way) and the challenge itself satisfying as well.  I get goosebumps sometimes listening to the enthusiasm in Gary's voice!  This is his PASSION!  And he is very serious about it.  His team is so great and are so supportive of his need to be accurate. Most members of this blog are supportive too, I wish more bloggers could offer more encouragement to him rather than drag his name through the mud when he makes a mistake.

I don't understand how one cannot see why the weather isn't exciting, especially here in the Midwest/Central Plains where the weather can be very unpredictable and changes so rapidly.  Gary would be SO bored working the coasts or down South.  Many people are very "into" their careers, you just don't get to see that enthusiasm with your own eyes every day like we do with television celebs, and local celebs like Gary!!!
February 5, 2008 4:30 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Shoedog,
You have to read the entire advisory.

Kristi
February 5, 2008 4:30 PM
 

JPnKC said:

The radar is coming alive in western ks- the storm is on the move and strengthing- this is the LULL before the storm- enjoy it- this looks to be a good snow producer for most of us..
February 5, 2008 4:30 PM
 

weatherjoe said:

how deep will the snow be south of town, should I bring my chickens in?

February 5, 2008 4:31 PM
 

radman22 said:

The wording was obviously wrong...they meant north, but said south.     But the did suggest that the track could go further south and move the snow totals with it.  
February 5, 2008 4:31 PM
 

FutureNursLori said:

LOL Amanda!  What are you talking about pj's inside out and spoon under the pillow???  I have never heard of this and would love an explanation. =)
February 5, 2008 4:31 PM
 

Awhsom said:

That NWS forecast referring to the southern part of the KC metro getting blasted is in a forecast discussion for counties south of the KC area, as such the southern parts of the KC area is  northern edge of that forecast area. You need to look at the counties/citys listed in the forecast discussion if you want to compare apples to oranges.
February 5, 2008 4:33 PM
 

Roberto said:

Gary,
       Your last blog said 3-6 inches for the southern part of the metro, but in this entry you said that that has gone up. Has it gone up to the NWS's 5-7 or the 6-8 given elsewhere? thanks
          Roberto

February 5, 2008 4:34 PM
 

Teamster83 said:

i think mr dryslot will be visiting us soon
February 5, 2008 4:34 PM
 

JPnKC said:

Kristi- have you seen an updated Discussion from EAX- arent they ususally out by now?
February 5, 2008 4:34 PM
 

WebDesigner said:

Hmm, Overland park and Olathe sound pretty close to KC to me. Those are the counties I see in the report.
February 5, 2008 4:34 PM
 

Scott said:

Yet another odd twist.  This is such a powerful storm...

Look at the RUC at 12hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/images/ruc_slp_012l.gif

Notice another small surface low forming over eastern KS -

Crazy.
February 5, 2008 4:35 PM
 

WebDesigner said:

Or cities I should say...
February 5, 2008 4:35 PM
 

ScottR said:

Personally I think the NWS is just covering themselves.  There will be snow... how much?  Who knows.  If you like snow say yay, if you don't like it, well too bad.  I have thought for the past 36 hours this storm would shift south and KC would get more snow than originally thought.  Hopefully, we will see 6-8 inches, and everyone will stay off the roads or go slow and not end up flipped in the median because they thought their four wheel drive F-250 raised up could handle taking a curve at 80 mph in the snow.

February 5, 2008 4:36 PM
 

Brent said:

If you are all confused...the NWS smashes their sentences together...I have had this problem before...they need to use periods.
February 5, 2008 4:37 PM
 

kristaszabo said:

All I know is I really want a big bunch of snow. I love to sit and watch it fall. It's so pretty. I really cannot wait to see how muchw e get ere in Blue Springs. I can't read the maps or anything, but I'm so thankful for all of you who do read them. It helps me understand what's going on besides the things I can see. I'll be back on here often tonight to check out what's going on around everyones homes. I love reading everything you all post so much. I love weather, and I love it even more when it snows. So, I'll be here waiting for it all to begin and to see if I get a good amount. Can't wait, but I am wishing I do get a bunch.
Krista
February 5, 2008 4:37 PM
 

simplykristi said:

No, JP, an update has not been done yet.  I will post it as soon as it is updated.

Kristi
February 5, 2008 4:37 PM
 

TheBrad84 said:

I'm sure someone has already said this, as there have been like 1000 posts today, but think if it would have been 5 degrees colder this morning during the first wave of precip that dumped 1''+ of rain over most of the metro. If that would have been all snow, that would have been a good 12'' of snow, then we'd have round two coming in tonight to give us another 6''+. This storm had the makings of being one of the biggest snow storms in kc history had it been cold enough..
February 5, 2008 4:38 PM
 

Braysmama said:

What are the chance's this thing goes even farther south???
February 5, 2008 4:38 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Here are the cities and counties referenced for the advisory:

MIAMI-LINN KS-JOHNSON KS-MACON-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-JACKSON-
LAFAYETTE-SALINE-CASS-JOHNSON MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLA...MOUND CITY...OVERLAND PARK...
OLATHE...MACON...LA PLATA...RICHMOND...CARROLLTON...SALISBURY...
KEYTESVILLE...KANSAS CITY...INDEPENDENCE...LEXINGTON...
CONCORDIA...MARSHALL...RAYMORE...HARRISONVILLE...PLEASANT HILL...
WARRENSBURG

Kristi
February 5, 2008 4:39 PM
 

justnora said:

I wish there would be a new blog.  I am going crazy until I can get home and see the 6 o'clock.  Told all of my co-workers that are Texas transplants to make sure they took their laptops home tonight, they would probably be working from home tomorrow.  They don't even like to drive in an inch.
February 5, 2008 4:40 PM
 

shoedog said:

Scott:

What do you make of the second surface low?  Will that zap energy from the system?
February 5, 2008 4:40 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

NWS HAS UPDATED SNOW AMMOUNTS.

OLATHE 3-7

EXCELSIOR SPRINGS 4-8

PLATTSBURG 5-9

BETHANY 7-13
February 5, 2008 4:40 PM
 

RickMckc said:

Scott, that link didn't work ...
February 5, 2008 4:40 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

BUT im still waiting on Garys ammounts!
February 5, 2008 4:41 PM
 

Amanda said:

A superstition we've started with all the preschoolers. If they go home and sleep with there pj's inside out and a spoon under their pillow, then we are garaunteed a snow day.

The snow day dance we reserved for the high school students in class today. Unfortunately the freshmen wouldn't participate. haha.

Anyways, that's as good as an explaination as I got. Sorry if you wanted something a lil more scientific than that. But we figured then it would go over their heads and would ruin the whole anticipation affect. lol
February 5, 2008 4:41 PM
 

Brent said:

fire dog....what do they have for Harrisonville?
February 5, 2008 4:43 PM
 

Teamster83 said:

how much wll Gladstone get or kci thats where i live
February 5, 2008 4:43 PM
 

anch889 said:

The rain-gauge total so far for today is 1.01". Unless, there is more rain before transformation to snow.

East Lawrence
February 5, 2008 4:44 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

Brent

Ice .1 SNOW 2-4
February 5, 2008 4:44 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

Oh and add an 1in for tommrow durring the day.
February 5, 2008 4:45 PM
 

Bryan said:

Gary and the team....quick update here from 130th and State Avenue in KCK it is now 33.2 and I collected 1.49 in my rain guage. So an IMPRESSIVE storm for sure. I just heard you on News Radio 980 and was excited to hear the latest!

Bryan
February 5, 2008 4:45 PM
 

Scott said:

Huh.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr3/fp0_012.shtml

That should work.

Shoedog - no, the main system will be well east of us then.  This looks to be forming in the backend comma head.  
February 5, 2008 4:45 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

UPDATED FORECAST DISS.
February 5, 2008 4:46 PM
 

kellyann said:

Braysmama, no one ever says anything if someone asks about South of KC, guess they figure we should know we wont get anything, lol
February 5, 2008 4:46 PM
 

FutureNursLori said:

Amanda- I love it!  Sounds like a better scientific explanation than many others I have heard on various topics!  
February 5, 2008 4:47 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

February 5, 2008 4:47 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Teamster83,
Looks like 3 to 7 inches, according to NWS.

Kristi
February 5, 2008 4:47 PM
 

TomTom said:

how much will this city get how much will gladstone get, how much will metro north, how much will zona rosa, how much will oak park high school, how much will antioch rd, how much will vivian rd.........people please narrowing it down to streets and small subdivisions is absolutely stupid!!
February 5, 2008 4:47 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

They said that the  18z models are hard to trust.  LOL
February 5, 2008 4:48 PM
 

Scott said:

February 5, 2008 4:48 PM
 

simplykristi said:

February 5, 2008 4:48 PM
 

PoofDragon said:

Check this out... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=winterwx

Look at the thumbnail for the Day 2 Precip. Kinda looks ghostly to the dragon.
February 5, 2008 4:48 PM
 

marlina10 said:

It really does seem like the NWS is afraid of having egg on their face again so they're not upgarding the winter weather advisory.
February 5, 2008 4:49 PM
 

Braysmama said:

Yeah, Kellyann. I should know by now that everything has gone too far north and we have nothing to worry about. I'm still hoping for an inch or two anyway's!
February 5, 2008 4:50 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Scott,
We posted the same link at the same time.

Kristi
February 5, 2008 4:50 PM
 

Scott said:

A bit further south, a bit slower, and a bit wetter.

;-)
February 5, 2008 4:51 PM
 

twister11 said:

Sounds to me the NWS is a bit lost in the woods with this storm.... Who wouldnt be.
February 5, 2008 4:51 PM
 

Fairway said:

Rain gauge here in Fairway - .96"
February 5, 2008 4:51 PM
 

LVStormSpotter said:

We had light snow mix in Columbia. : O
February 5, 2008 4:52 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

alright, people keep posting the same things over and over again...its getting annoying.  look before you post!
February 5, 2008 4:53 PM
 

Brent said:

Braysmama, and kellyann.....lets try to be positive please...

I know we have missed out on all the storms so far...but this one just may be the one we get...its a long shot yes...but I trust Gary...lets not get all depressed untill Gary says that we will get an inch
February 5, 2008 4:54 PM
 

CentralOP2 said:

These NWS offices never work together do they?
Winter Storm Warning for Douglas County, KS
Winter Weather Advisory for Johnson County, KS

I say a good widespread 5-7 inches for those areas with higher amounts.
Cold air will be moving in as SOON as the wind shifts to the north and not the northeast.
February 5, 2008 4:54 PM
 

simplykristi said:

NWS just upped our totals to 3 to 7 inches here in south Raytown.

Kristi
February 5, 2008 4:55 PM
 

CentralOP2 said:

Scott,
I am thinking a good widespread 6 inches for the metro and areas to the north.
February 5, 2008 4:55 PM
 

cindylouwho said:

Live feed on the tornados down south...http://www.wreg.com.
February 5, 2008 4:55 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Scott and I had no idea that each of us was going to post that link.  If you think that this is nuts, you should follow the severe weather thread over on storm2k.org.

Kristi
February 5, 2008 4:57 PM
 

Jayhawk said:

You had better hope that the temperature drops by a couple of degrees or it's all rain.  
February 5, 2008 4:57 PM
 

marlina10 said:

Cindylouwho: How nice of them to make you sit through a casino commercial while you are waiting for life saving weather information! =)
February 5, 2008 4:58 PM
 

brian1234 said:

29 deg in north olathe, winds out of the north at 18 mph gusts of 31 mph.
February 5, 2008 4:59 PM
 

Fire Dog said:

33*at KCI/mist   32* at ST JOE/snow
February 5, 2008 4:59 PM
 

Braysmama said:

Brent-I'm not trying to be negetive, just realistic. I don't want to get my hope's up and have a big disappointment come tomorrow morning.
February 5, 2008 5:02 PM
 

CentralOP2 said:

Concordia 22F
Manhattan below 30F

The cold air is out there, and will move down as soon as the winds gust from the north instead of blowing more from the NE.
February 5, 2008 5:04 PM
 

sheldan said:

I read the blog, it is entertaining.  I am getting way too excited, I don't want to be disappointed!  I pray for snow like this every year!  I can't wait, I will probably be up all night watching...............YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
February 5, 2008 5:07 PM
 

ScottR said:

I love when I wake up in the morning after the powers that be (meteorologists) said there would be snow and I look out all excited to see my uncovered deck with no snow.  Will I get the same feeling tomorrow morning?
February 5, 2008 5:08 PM
 

turksandcaicos said:

GARY just said this is one of the strongest storms he's seen in a while taking dead aim.
This is so incredible!!!
February 5, 2008 5:08 PM
 

NorthOfRiver said:

35.3 Gladstone, stiff north wind with steady, fine mist blowing sideways.
February 5, 2008 5:08 PM
 

kellyann said:

Brent, I am far from disapointed! I could care less what it does, I still stick with what I have said all along, not going to get much in Grandview and that is fine with me! I would just as soon have no snow than a few inches that just mess things up.
February 5, 2008 5:12 PM
 

ScottR said:

So what are Gary's predictions for those of you able to watch?
February 5, 2008 5:12 PM
 

simplykristi said:

He will give us totals during his weather segment.

Kristi
February 5, 2008 5:14 PM
 

jbtornado said:

The heaviest snows are going to stay roughly west and NW of a line from Emporia to St. Joseph to Maryville Missouri.... Probably a 5-8" stripe in the Flint Hills... Once again I highly doubt the KC Metro sees over 2-3"...

Jon
February 5, 2008 5:15 PM
 

bewild79 said:

I have a question for some of the pessimists out there...why are you gonna sit there and say that none of this is gonna happen?  Obviously there is a reason you joined this blog.  I would think it would be because you like listening to forcasters that get it right.  I, for some reason, still keep reading people saying this isn't gonna happen.  If you don't believe it, then don't, but let the rest of us be happy.  The other storms that the totals went down...they were talked about the night before.  This weather team has been very accurate.    ScottR...the friggin snow is not supposed to start until tonight.  It is not between 9pm and later so, duh, there is no snow out there.....
February 5, 2008 5:16 PM
 

cindylouwho said:

While I am waiting and waiting for the snow (or not snow) I am watching http://www.wreg.com and the tornado warnings they are experiencing.  They currently are in a PDS and the Memphis school district released the kids at 12:30 today in preparation of the outbreak.  Amazingly they captured a tornado from the camera on the Hilton Memphis about 30 minutes ago...LIVE!   Makes me anxious about our quickly approaching spring weather.  Anyone else have any live feed addresses they want to pass on?
February 5, 2008 5:16 PM
 

Bryan said:

32.7 now here in KCK
February 5, 2008 5:17 PM
 

backwoods said:

Scott, will the precip between santa fe and amarillo grow and head this way also?
February 5, 2008 5:17 PM
 

CentralOP2 said:

What is up with the 18Z NAM?
It has a rather strange QPF hole in the KC metro.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//nam/18/nam_slp000018_l.shtml

The 18Z GFS looks much better with .45 to .70 inches of QPF for most areas of the metro.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/18/gfs_slp000018_l.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/18/gfs_slp024042_l.shtml

February 5, 2008 5:18 PM
 

simplykristi said:

CindyLouWho,
I am watching this feed out of Memphis:  http://www.wmcstations.com/

Kristi
February 5, 2008 5:19 PM
 

JPnKC said:

Cindylouwho- I was watching the feeds- wow multiple tornadic storms in and around that area-- watch out here in March!!
February 5, 2008 5:20 PM
 

CentralOP2 said:

"Once again I highly doubt the KC Metro sees over 2-3"... "

Not if you really analyze the latest models. It looks like a solid 4-5 inches for most areas of the metro with the NWS agreeing.
February 5, 2008 5:20 PM
 

Soonertwosome said:

Hey, Gary, we agree with KellyofIndependence... we're just not seeing the same thing, but we hope you are correct.  One of us works for a local municipality and has to keep a very close watch on the weather conditions, and usually agrees with you right down the line.  Last week's "no/snow" totally caught us by surprise, too!  So, for good measure, along with your prediction, it would be nice to hear that, this, too, could just skirt around us as has happened from time to time.

Keep up the great work!  We appreciate your indepth study of the weather patterns and your LRC!

Boomer Sooner!
February 5, 2008 5:21 PM
 

juba said:

When will Gary make a new blog? Me want new one, anyone else. Just say if you want another one at the end of your message.
February 5, 2008 5:21 PM
 

Hushpook said:

Does it really matter if the NWS thinks Olathe will get 5" and calls it a 'winter weather advisiory, or 9" of snow, and calls it a winter storm warning? Putting a label on the amount of snow isn't going to change how much we actually get. One label may get our hopes up more or less, but its not going to change the eventuality.
February 5, 2008 5:23 PM
 

Daniel from Appleton City said:

"We will update the blog with our snowfall forecast map between newscasts tonight.  And, bloggers, you know me by now, this is the first time I have really been excited about a snowstorm all season. Something, of course, still could take this storm off course, but I doubt it."

That was from Gary in his blog just read it lol....i cant wait to see how much he thinks Appleton City is gonna get...I dont even bother listening to any other forecast
February 5, 2008 5:23 PM
 

nitesky said:

Did you see that bullseye on the snow prediction screen that flashed by accident? Whoa.
February 5, 2008 5:24 PM
 

kcroyals05 said:

Gary is calling for 6 - 8 inches....   WOW
February 5, 2008 5:24 PM
 

egerrity said:

Gary's a tease... "No time to show the totals"
February 5, 2008 5:25 PM
 

PHFootball said:

Mike Thompson of Fox4 is predicting 1" of snow for Platte County. That is a major change in something.
February 5, 2008 5:25 PM
 

egerrity said:

Gary's a tease... "No time to show the totals"
February 5, 2008 5:25 PM
 

Daniel from Appleton City said:

Can anyone tell me what Gary thinks Appleton City will get? We are just east of butler if you dont know where Appleton is.
February 5, 2008 5:26 PM
 

farmgirl said:

If we are suppose to get 30-40 MPH winds, then why hasn't the NWS issued a Blizzard watch?
February 5, 2008 5:26 PM
 

jjjje said:

Gary.. what you just did with the snowfall map on the 5:00 news was just mean! Give us a glimpse and then take it away! Mean Mean Mean!
February 5, 2008 5:26 PM
 

Weatherfly said:

I Love it!!!
February 5, 2008 5:27 PM
 

Braysmama said:

Come on-just a little further south.....
February 5, 2008 5:27 PM
 

backwoods said:

35.1 and sprinkling in Blue Springs. has been hovering between 36 and 37 all day. Sooo starting to drop finally
February 5, 2008 5:28 PM
 

mbmeek said:

bewild79:
I for one, am pessimistic because of the previous history of winter weather for the metro this year. I understand that every stom is different. However, snow forecasts are usually given in ranges (like 1-3 inches.) I haven't done the math, but I would estimate that if you took the high end of all the snow forecasts for the KC metro so far this year and added them all together, you would get a number about 750% higher than the actual amount of snow that has fallen. I'm not going to get excited about the high end of a snowfall forecast until I see something that leads me to believe it will happen....Radar echos over my neighborhood and heavy snow reaching the ground outside my window and not melting on contact.
February 5, 2008 5:28 PM
 

JPnKC said:

WOW 6-10 inches bullseye in the metro!!


February 5, 2008 5:28 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Tornado emergency in Memphis TN right now!

Kristi
February 5, 2008 5:31 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Lol Gary doesnt no what the jaws of life were

anyway I have said this every single day

5-8 Inches in Olathe
February 5, 2008 5:33 PM
 

sweetness said:

Yay finally our turn for something. Now watch it just all fall apart id cry if we got our chance and then it fell apart. That was mean Gary you shouldn't take the snow forecast away from us
February 5, 2008 5:35 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Tough day for the people in Memphis, TN


From the NWS in Memphis

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR SHELBY...
NORTHERN FAYETTE AND DESOTO COUNTIES...

...THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WARNED AREA...

AT 525 PM CST...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LYNCHBURG...OR ABOUT NEAR HORN LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SOUTHAVEN...WHITEHAVEN...SOUTHWEST MEMPHIS...DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS...OLIVE
BRANCH...MIDTOWN MEMPHIS...SOUTHEAST MEMPHIS...FRAYSER...
GERMANTOWN...COLLIERVILLE...BARTLETT...ELLENDALE...MILLINGTON...
LAKELAND...EADS...ARLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...OAKLAND AND GALLAWAY.

.IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER
A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

.IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
February 5, 2008 5:35 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

My take on the satellite loop is that the track of the swirl developing over W Oklahoma better turn to the right tonight or we will get dry slotted in KC proper, with heavier snows N and W of KC.
February 5, 2008 5:36 PM
 

ScottR said:

Wow the hook on the storm in Memphis is impressive and scary.
February 5, 2008 5:38 PM
 

CentralOP2 said:

PHFootball,
Don't listen to those other stations. If Gary is confident we are going to get a solid snowfall this close to the event, then I definitely believe him.
February 5, 2008 5:38 PM
 

CentralOP2 said:

"My take on the satellite loop is that the track of the swirl developing over W Oklahoma better turn to the right tonight or we will get dry slotted in KC proper, with heavier snows N and W of KC."

From the Topeka NWS

"WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DRY SLOT LOOKS TO STAY
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...MORE INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI."
February 5, 2008 5:39 PM
 

cindylouwho said:

http://www.wreg.com  Live on the Hilton Memphis hotel camera feed of a TORNADO EMERGENCY!!!  Tornado being shown LIVE!    
February 5, 2008 5:40 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Mbmeek,
I completely understand what you are saying.  BUT, they have not kept high snow totals this close to the storm.  I have been paying attention all day, and, while I am a little excited because I have not seen this much snow in like 6 years, I am a little scared for all the people outside and on the roads.  This is gonna be a doozie.  Louisiana doesn't see this.  I wasn't trying to make anyone mad by any of my statements, I was just saying.  If I made anyone mad I am sorry. :):):)
February 5, 2008 5:40 PM
 

simplykristi said:

There is at least one tornado on the ground in the Memphis area.

Kristi
February 5, 2008 5:41 PM
 

chfs327 said:

5-8 inches of snow baby

Bring on the 12 pack of pepsi
February 5, 2008 5:41 PM
 

shellmeister said:

PHFootball

We don't mention actual names or other stations here.  Why watch those 'other' stations anyway???  Why be here if you watch them?  Why not just watch KSHB/Gary and his team AND connect here with others that watch him????  That's all the information you will EVER need...
February 5, 2008 5:41 PM
 

jbtornado said:

Thats what I just said sedskinkc.. Its simple nowcasting now and yet people are forecasting based on computer model guidance now..

I'm sticking to my prediction, Gary, I think you went overboard here
February 5, 2008 5:42 PM
 

orgirl69 said:

"http://www.wreg.com  Live on the Hilton Memphis hotel camera feed of a TORNADO EMERGENCY!!!  Tornado being shown LIVE!"

WOW!!!!!!  
February 5, 2008 5:43 PM
 

Daniel from Appleton City said:

come on gary hows about some love for you loyal bloggers show us the snowfall map before anyone else lol i cant handle it
February 5, 2008 5:44 PM
 

Daniel from Appleton City said:

come on gary hows about some love for you loyal bloggers show us the snowfall map before anyone else lol i cant handle it
February 5, 2008 5:44 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Unbelievable footage on that camera


Memphis is screwed........this is bad....
February 5, 2008 5:45 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Germantown is in the path...  There's confirmation that a large and dangerous tornado was on the ground.

Kristi
February 5, 2008 5:49 PM
 

Suburban Sam said:

Wow .... a lot of  posting since my last input. For all you snow junkies... Steamboat Springs Colorado has had 3 feet of snow in the last 48 hours.... I wish I was up there getting some face shots of that Pow-Pow....

I can't wait till the first flakes start falling.... all you blogger hit the post them secong you see snow start in your area!

Suburban Sam.....
February 5, 2008 5:49 PM
 

bewild79 said:

My thoughts and prayers are with all the people going through that right now, and throughout this evening and over night.
February 5, 2008 5:50 PM
 

Hushpook said:

"Can anyone tell me what Gary thinks Appleton City will get?"

Dark.
February 5, 2008 5:51 PM
 

dogncatmom said:

I have a good friend who lives in Collierville, TN.  I am hoping and praying that she makes it through ok.
February 5, 2008 5:51 PM
 

Steph89 said:

I am trying not to get too excited about this just in case.
However, that isn't really working for me so well....
I'M EXCITED!! I'M EXCITED!! I'M EXCITED!!
February 5, 2008 5:51 PM
 

brian1234 said:

29 deg and holding in north olathe, winds have calmed down to 5-8 mph. our of the north.

Severe weather is nothing more that mother natures way of population control. It's the reality of nature.  
February 5, 2008 5:55 PM
 

cindylouwho said:

www.wreg.com reporting total devestation in some area around Memphis.  All non-essential personnel at the NWS have been directed to take shelter.  The on air weatherman is telling people to take cover NOW!!!  ( FYI  one of the weather people at this station Austen Onek was at the Topeka, Ks. station around 16 years ago and our son is named after him!)
February 5, 2008 5:56 PM
 

KUFan4Life said:

My girls are out of snow days but I'm EXCITED for snow myself!!

Let's hope it really comes!!

Gary -- I'm holding you to the 6-8"
February 5, 2008 5:57 PM
 

kellyann said:

Gosh, I have a friend that lives in Murfreesburo, TN
February 5, 2008 5:59 PM
 

balzak said:

New Blog
February 5, 2008 5:59 PM
 

Sam16 said:

so um ya... is the NWS ever gonna change that to a warning?
February 5, 2008 5:59 PM
 

dryslot said:

ok folks i have been away for awhile..what is the latest on snow? has it changed as far as snow and how much? help me out
February 5, 2008 5:59 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Oh where, oh where is Dryslot? Hopefully The storm will track north again... I like this years LRC! I want it to remain true to the North path. No snow for me please, oh please.
February 5, 2008 5:59 PM
 

dryslot said:

sorry in lees summit
February 5, 2008 6:01 PM
 

chfs327 said:

My Friend lives by Nashville Tenn. hopefully this storm wont hit them as hard.

my Thoughts and prayers are with the city of memphis and anyone else who is dealing with this nasty storm system in Memphis.

Now 5-8 is what I have said all along and once again I will be right
February 5, 2008 6:01 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

I am just going by what the satellite shows at this time.  I don't know what forces might be at work that could cause this swirl to turn more to the right and put us in the heavy snow, but if the current motion continues we will get dry slotted, regardless of what the NWS says in their discussion.  I'm hoping for the right turn, but we'll see....
February 5, 2008 6:02 PM
 

KUFan4Life said:

Gary's teasing us again...We have to wait a few more minutes for the snowfall totals....

Come on Lezak -- Tell it to me straight!!
February 5, 2008 6:02 PM
 

Hushpook said:

Amazingly, there are only about 8 counties in the entire State of Kansas that don't have some sort of snow warning or advisory. I can't recall ever seeing that.
February 5, 2008 6:02 PM
 

rodeomann65 said:

I  don't know why that one of the weater pepole in kansas city is saying we are only going to get 1 to 3 inch of snow what is he looking at and how  can he say that when every one is say 6to 8  or more he  must still be gun shy from last week still  lol
February 5, 2008 6:03 PM
 

kellyann said:

If anyone listening to the tornado warnings hear anything about Murfreesburo, please let me know! I don't want to miss anything.
February 5, 2008 6:09 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

Platte Brooke North, Kansas City, Missouri (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
Light Drizzle
32.9 °F / 0.5 °C
Light Drizzle
February 5, 2008 6:09 PM
 

Soonertwosome said:

Gary, starting to think you are a genius now!  A City employee now reporting slick road conditions in Olathe....misting, freezing on the SW side of the city.

Appears dry slot area is filling in, if the storm slows down, yea, could see a long duration event........so we will be up all night watching and preparing so the citizens of our Municipality can have the best driving conditions possible overnight.
February 5, 2008 7:25 PM
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