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Sounds good Gary,

Looking forward to the updated totals!!!

SWEET

Sneaky man...

The other guys are being much more conservative in their estimates--1-3". I hope you guys are right! :)

HMM, my weather station in Kingsville has the temp at 32.9, down from 34.0 earlier this afternoon. Maybe if it get's colder sooner......

How much snow will come to Blue Valley schools, will they cancel school in that distict? When will the snow start there?

It said it was updated at 5:47, I didn't see it pop up until 10 min later. I don't want to wait that long for another blog.I mean, who know how long 10 min will be. lol

http://www.wreg.com live interviews looking through debris for survivors, weatherman stating this is just the beginning of the outbreaks...

32 degrees exactly in Parkville. When precip falls from the sky, IT WILL BE SNOW! Can't wait to see the snowfall forcast.

Good early evening to the Weather Team!!

Currently at 32 degrees with a stiff North wind-finally got to the freezing mark!!

Wow-the 21Z RUC-man!!!! If I am looking at it correctly, it closes off the Upper Level Low right in central Oklahoma-POW!!! Unleash the Hounds!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

I will make the Final Call Juba. I have ties with the superentendent in Olathe so I will call weither or not Olathe will or will not have school 2morrow. Olathe, Bluevalley, and Shawnnee mission school districts are all connected by snowdays

if Olathe goes then you guys will go

if olathe gets out then u guys will get out

Juba it is safe to say somewhere between 1 and 36 inches will fall in the metro tonight.  My bet would be in the neighborhood of 4 inches in BV schools area.  And with the timing of the storm, schools will start to close if it hits 3+ inches I think.

It is "32.4 degrees" what is the exact frzng point?

If I remember the areas correctly, Gary just said that we would see 6" "Widespread accumulations" over most of the Metro, from Blue Springs & Odessa to North of Chillicothe and West to beyond the border.

Let it Snow, Let is Snow, Let it Snow!!

Woo Hoo!!

And still no upgrades on our winter weather advisory from the NWS... I say we just let Gary assign our winter alerts! =)

Will snow develop farther south?

Tnks ScottR & chfs327. Gary it is safe to say that I will be impatient for a new blog at 6:15 or a little later ;).

If it snows even an inch in Jo Co all the schools will be closed.  It is amazing how little snow it takes to close the schools these days.

chfs327, you must have some insight on why this is.

If anyone listening to the tornado warnings hear anything about Murfreesburo, please let me know! I don't want to miss anything

Chfs327 we need to become good friends being a teacher in Olathe and all!  ;)  I can't believe 6-10 on the edge of Olathe!!  Wowee!

wow! look at that map Gary put on here a few min ago

If it was 30 degrees all day today, how much snow would olathe gave gotten when the winter storm was done? Im exited, if this comes together as you think it would there will be a snow day! Everybody PUT A SPOON UNDER YOUR BED TONIGHT AND DO OTHER NO SCHOOL TRICHS YOU KNOW! Bring on the storm. P.S. what is the chance of this not coming together gary? If is 32.4 degrees!

Byan ;)

to answer your question juba the freezing point of water under standard atmospheric pressure is 0°C/32°F. Of course when you take into account the amount of free standing water on the ground that has been present under warmer conditions, it will take the water longer to reach the freezing point. That's why overpasses and higher elevated structures reach the freezing point faster.

Hey, newbie to the weather blog! I love this! People who share love for the weather! Well, tomorrow is my birthday and snow would be fun! Kudos to Gary!

Elizabeth

Awsome! Bring on the 10 inches!

Please let it snow 6+ inches. if your interested in some metal work visit my dad's site.

WOW....I sure hope this happnes...I will take 3 inches. The girls can sled in that at least!! You guys are doing a great job with the blog and all the demands made on you to keep it updated and all. We appreciate you. Keep up the good work.
Monica
Pleasanton KS

school in Lees Summit may be closed for 2 days if we get 6" or more..I am sticking with the 3"..although that radar looks freakin' scary!!thats a lot of water for a dryslot to overcome.

Softball size hail report in Southern MO- around West Plains- talk about some serious updrafts in that storm..

sorry about the address mess-up.

Congrats to all snow lovers, enjoy, but be safe we have'nt had one like this in a while!

Another station...you all know which, just said 1"-5", but that he will probably lower that based on what he sees.....Crazy.

YESSSS.  I was planning on going to work tomorrow morning...  But you know...  I live in the country... On a hill.... Where snowplows never come... (nobody knows about my 4x4 though ;) I think I may take a sleep in for once :)  Of course my version of sleeping in is until 7 lol.

Me like what I see :)  The snow is now filling in the radar echoes very nicely :)  

After what Gary said, I'm sending mom out to bring the chickens in!!!

What happened to all of the "POOF" bloggers? Maybe this storm will silence some of them for a while.

Also, can we get this storm to push east so the bullseye is Columbia? That would be nice.

Is there a chance that the storm moves even further south? Is there a chance of drexel getting 6 inches? I know drexel is around 3 now.

so is lee's summit in that 6-10 band or are we below that?

Oh my...wow...when I saw the bullseye finally over Johnson County I just about yelped for excitement! This could be it!

I think Gary and any other people that are interested in Meteorology get excited because it is an awesome sight to see "Mother Nature" do whatever she wants!  The power and force of nature is amazing to watch unfold before our very eyes!  To try and actually succeed at predicting with such accuracy these events must be extremely gratifying (and I don't mean in a snobbish way) and the challenge itself satisfying as well.  I get goosebumps sometimes listening to the enthusiasm in Gary's voice!  This is his PASSION!  And he is very serious about it.  His team is so great and are so supportive of his need to be accurate. Most members of this blog are supportive too, I wish more bloggers could offer more encouragement to him rather than drag his name through the mud when he makes a mistake.

I don't understand how one cannot see why the weather isn't exciting, especially here in the Midwest/Central Plains where the weather can be very unpredictable and changes so rapidly.  Gary would be SO bored working the coasts or down South.  Many people are very "into" their careers, you just don't get to see that enthusiasm with your own eyes every day like we do with television celebs, and local celebs like Gary!!

---------------

Thank you so much, and I grew up in Los Angeles where the weather is very boring, but I didn't know any better.

Have a safe evening.

Gary

Gee, I hope we get great big fat flakes out of this storm.  Otherwise, if it's like 99.9% of the snows we've been getting, it can snow for 2 days with those little itty bitty flakes and maybe get over my ankles. :o)

The Storm Prediction Center(which issues all Tstorm and Tornado watches) has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for our area!!!

Thundersnow is very possible with 1"-2" od snow per hour possible after Midnight!

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0164
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0526 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NWRN MO...FAR SWRN IA...FAR SERN NEB
 
  CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
 
  VALID 052326Z - 060430Z
 
  A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 03Z ACROSS ERN KS AND
  EXPAND NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z.
  SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY REACH 1 IN/HR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
  CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RATES ON NWRN EDGE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
  PLUME ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU/MID-MS RIVER VALLEY REGION.
 
  RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED A LOBE OF STRONGER ASCENT
  PIVOTING NEWD INTO CNTRL KS ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW
  OVER SWRN OK. AFTERNOON MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT WITH
  STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/FRONTOGENESIS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
  THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. THESE FACTORS WILL FAVOR
  STRONG FORCING WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND A LIKELY
  DEFORMATION AXIS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW...CENTERED FROM
  NEAR SLN TO STJ TO LWD. FARTHER SE...ELEVATED ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER
  /AS NOTED IN ACARS DATA INVOF MCI/...WOULD INITIALLY SUPPORT A
  SLEET/SNOW MIX. WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5 DEG
  C/KM...PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THE STRENGTHENING ASCENT MAY
  SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM ICT
  TO MKC. DYNAMICAL COOLING WOULD SHOULD LEAD TO A THERMAL PROFILE AOB
  FREEZING AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF HEAVY
  SNOW.
 

Thundersnow would be nice, but im sure drexel wont see it!!

Memphis took a pretty serious shot, talking about a roof collapse at a mall and the fire dept. is reporting they are in a search and rescue at this time. Lots of damage down that way and all thru Arkansas and South Missouri

From my observations , for what it's worth.  

1. This is a moisture beast. the humitity is at 100%.  There is more than enough moisture in the air, as a matter of fact the atmosphere is saturated.

2. The temp here at K-10 and Renner is 29 deg. (below freezing) winds at around 10-15 mph


 If anything significant were to happen, the colder air needed to be here at least 3-4 hours ago. However the warmer air aloft, combined with the slow moving cold front, have not allowed this to happen. there is an inch of freestanding water that is acting as a blanket on the ground and keeping the ground temps from changing much.  The amount of pressure provided and a massive cold front necessary to change this would completly kill the moisture off.

Looking at radar, the cells are not very organized and are isolated, it does appear that it's trying to get it's act together down torwards wichita, however with the amount of moisture in the air, this would be more of an initial ice producer than a snow producer at this point.

But the pattern can change drastically over the course of the next hour. But after that the window will close for anything significant, based upon what I see.

I see .05 to 1 inch of ice, with 2-3 inches of snow, based upon current trends.

How could one think weather isn't exciting?  And if you did not, why would you be reading this blog. I am a self-proclaimed weather geek from way back and love to see someone share my excitement and geekiness.  I saw the 5-4-3 tornado in Gladstone and mix my excitement with a healthy amount of respect and fear for the powerful forces of nature.

i sure hope we get the 6-10 in here cus i will be one grumpy person in the morn since i wont be sleeping.

to all of you that Live in Olathe. I im only 15 years old. Im have many ties to OS.IT. HC, Heritage, ONW, exc

I email bout 20-30 teachers, Princeabals and now the distric superentendent

I Give out a message everytime it is gonna snow or be severe weather. This storm i put about 5 messages and I am still gonna do 1 later 2nite.

I predicted 5-8 for Olathe and its gonna happen

Gary, you're the expert and have the ability to analyze all the data at your disposal, so I want to believe your forecast.  Bitter experience has shown that most potentially large snow storms find a way to miss the immediate KC area.  This has happened several times in my 14 years in KC.  Several of the biggest snowstorms I've seen in KC were predicted to be small (1-3 or 2-4 inches) right up until the snow started accumulating in large amounts, and then the predicted totals were raised.  Several times over the years I've seen local predictions (not necessarily yours) of 6-10 inches end up as 1 to 3 inch storms.  I eagerly await what this storm brings us, but as I noted twice in the previous blog I am concerned about the impact of the dry slot on the immediate KC area.  I've seen nothing in the latest satellite images to ease my concern.  Perhaps the way the cyclonic swirls will interact with each other will minimize the dry slot's effect on KC.  Gary, I would like one big storm in KC and truly hope your forecast is right on!

In Raytown, we've had 1.13" of rain thus far today.  Combined with .23" on Sunday gives 1.36" already in February.  

Brian,
  We appreciate your input.  But at this point in the storm system we rely on our experts to forecast what will be the result.  We go as far to plan our day and our travel around this.  Your observation should include a caveat as to not confuse anybody that needs trustworthy information.

Gary, what are the chances of Harrisonville getting missed again?...if it shifts a few miles...ouch!

or maybe it will shift further south!!!

I hope his forecast is right too!!

Gary -- I sit behind you every once in a while at the KU games....

Rock, Chalk, Jayhawk!!

the massive weather producer we really needed to get the energy we needed is what is producing the severe weather  in MO. We needed that storm with a cold front punch at 2 - 3 pm this afternoon.  other than that we might have to settle for wet or slushy roads.  then again, it might get it's act together, and dump snow on us for the next 8 hours. it depends on all the varriables. not much really going on to get that excited about based upon radar trends and current conditions. let's watch it over the next couple hours. remember this time last night, we thought we would be getting somethinig by mid to late afternoon... and we still don't have anything.

awww  come on nay sayers!  Let us keep the hope alive!  lol

Brent, lets hope that it tracks further south!!!

I'm most likely one of the few that likes it when Gary is off on his snow totals. Less snow equals happy gal. More snow... tired gal. Trudging through snow to feed critters is hard work. I need a gator. :)

Hey Brian1234,
Do you have a degree in forcasting the weather?  

Rookie here......I agree with Gary and the rest of the team.....Brian...take a look at the speed of the ULL, look at the track of the ULL, look at the water vapor imagery, use the enhanced radar images for returns..blah...blah....just read what Gary wrote for goodness sake...he is the best....reverse psychology will only work in weak situations.......:)  BRING ON THE SNOW!

I'm noticing a rapid increase in radar echoes along the Ks/Ok border south of Wichita, moving NE.

it does not take a rocket scientiest to say what I just said. looking at radar and current conditions and trends, it's common sense.

Now after your finished insulting me, I beleive my opinion iand observations are just as valid as the next guys.

adogg, I am almost in the bulls eye! about 15 miles north!

A gator would make it alot easier!!!!

It's really amazing how some high schoolers still don't know how to spell. The last time it snowed 6+ harrisonville schools were out for a week, and all you kids were so happy but when the end of the year came around and u had to make those days up u wished u did'nt have those days off.

when is Harrisonville going to be included in the winter storm warning or the heavy snow warning?

Maybe it doesn't take a rocket scientiest to say what you said but maybe some of us don't want to hear you keep crapping on what Gary and the team are saying.  Maybe some of us are getting tired of it.

No insult meant Brian.....just a difference of opinion/interpretation.....

lolsame here

5-8 inches

the end

True brent, I wish drexel was that close!

i did not insult anyone. I gave current conditions from my location. and stated my opinion based upon observations.

i am not insulting the weather team or Gary. take a look at the blog you tell me when i did that.

Why is it that some of the weather stations say they are getting "Freezing Rain" when the temperature is 32.9? If it's above 32.0, it's just rain, right?

32.9 °F / 0 °C
Light Freezing Drizzle

Gary I know you don't want to hear this...but the other station is saying 1 to 3 at most for the metro...and he thinks the storm is weak...the temps are too warm the energy is not tracking in the right spot...and an other factors that make this storm weak....what do you think?...

I hope you're right and you wipe the other competitors off the map!..lol

I hope I get 6!!!!!!

Its 34 degrees at the Harrisonville Fire station. We are hoping for some heavy snow here also.

32.2 in harrisonville

F00dl3...I always wondered that too.  Like when my car thermometer reads 36 degrees then flashes ICE all the time.

I believe that this will be the best chance this winter for KC metro to get the bulls eye...if we don't get it this time.I don't think there will be another chance...this is as perfect as it could get...(minus the fact that I want the whole storm to shift 20 miles south) lol

anyway...this could be it...

the radar looks awsome!

its 34 at the Harrisonville fire station?......

hmm its 32 here...but I am in the country....
maybe its warmer in town

If we get significant snow...I'll be sending you guys pictures!

The radar is lighting up!

Gary...

Is there any concern that the size and strength of the thunderstorms to our south and east will steal some of the available moisture for our storm?  I know that has happened before.

Thanks,

Matt.

I think Gary nails it most of the time, and that other station doesn't have a clue!  Keep up the great work Gary!

"   PatsSoxCelts said:
the radar looks awsome! "

hmm?....last time I looked it was not looking that great...is it getting better?
do you have a good radar site?

chfs327 what are the chances of olathe schools canceling tonigt??? I am at CT and dont want to do my homework.

brian, you are not looking at a good radar

This storm is developing right to our S and W and the precip is already increasing... its a powerful low

The radar is already looking very good to our West

f00dl3, I'm with you about whether rain falling at 32.9 degrees is freezing rain or plain rain.  Perhaps the surface the rain is falling on could be below freezing even if the air temp was 32.9 degrees?  I'm not sure.  In school back in the Stone Age, I was taught the melting point of water was 32 degrees.  It was never specified to a decimal point when I went to school, probably because they could not measure to that level of precision back then.  Does anyone know if the melting point is defined as 32.0 degrees Fahrenheit now?  If it's defined as 0.0 degrees Celsius, then it would translate as 32.0 degrees Fahrenheit.

Note that I discussed the melting point of water, not the freezing point.  Water at surface atmospheric pressures is always a liquid above 32 degrees Fahrenheit, but it can also be a liquid under certain conditions below 32 degrees.  Some people will say, I've seen it snow when it was 35 degrees, which is above 32.  How can that be?  The answer is that the snow formed and fell through the atmosphere at a temp below 32.  Right close to the surface the temp was above freezing but the snow flake did not have time to melt into water before reaching the surface.

the waiting is killing me...only because I work in a school district and I want the day off!!  

Dont send me pics brent, i dont want to see snow that we missed out on

32.5 in lawrence....hasn't dropped any in the past 30-45 minutes

31 at StJoe and 32 at KCI.

big tornado hit Memphis?

The radar trends should start increasing here in the next few hrs.

where's Andrew at snow dance lol.

It is misting heavily at 59th & N Oak in Gladstone.  It is just now starting to freeze on the cars.  Should be a fun night.

My youngest can't wait for the phone to ring to tell her that she does not have school tomorrow. We are in Lee's Summit

Motocross. They will usually cancell schools for Olathe, Bluevalley, and Shawnne mission at around 4:30AM. I will talk to the Superintendent when she gets back and then we will decide.

its night time...why aren't the temps dropping at all!?

I was watching the weather channel online. They were broadcasting from Memphis when the sirens went off. Scary.

Is everyone watching noaa radar or something different?

Is everyone watching noaa radar or something different?

NNNE wind 26  temp now 29.8 LT sleet the next that comes in should be all snow as we likely will have cooled at elevation but we will barely be in it; it is to our north it looks like there will be a north band and a south band and a lower band in between.

Gary we had 2-3 in. earlier today slushed now freezing so we get another 4-8 according to you correct?

Tennessee is getting hit very badly.
In case you missed it earlier, WREG is running live video coverage of weather events there.
http://www.wreg.com/

Dave- go to wreg.com -- live feed- significant damage

Memphis storm damage reports can be seen at http://www.wreg.com/Global/story.asp?S=7827071

sounds like many of us are watching this unfold in Memphis

Just an FYI it is 33.1 degrees here in Lee's Summit. With wind chill it makes it feel like 22 degrees.

Great minds think alike.

Here in Sedalia its still 34 degrees and holding.  They are still calling for 1-3 here.  I want all or nothing.  If we get enough I won't have to work tomorrow.  Anway, for you wishing for a big snow I hope you enjoy digging out.  Last year, Sedalia got hammered with 16 a inch snow.  I couldn't see my car out in my driveway to dig it out!   That was the first 12' plus snow I can remember around this part.

yea life threatening situation in tennessee they have tornado emergencies going on down there with large tornadoes occuring ouch my thoughts go out to them.

I have been watching a feed out of Memphis for over two hours.

Kristi

If you run the Topeka radar on loop you can really see the storm developing SW of KC area.

i think we need to calm down and tune in, now, at 10, or perhaps wait for a blog update, but i think gary and team are a bit busy right now.  meanwhile, enjoy your prognostications and banter! i'll be asleep at 10 dang it!...

you can also go to www.kait8.com   this is Jonesboro Ark television  Gasville Ark and Flippin Ark took a LOT of damage. In fact my Grandma said Gasville Ark was wiped of the map and there is a large fire burning in downtown Flippin Ark.

Looks like Memphis is getting ready for round 2

As a small business owner this storm is driving me crazy.  Love winter, love weather, but really frustrated that I see on reporting metro 1 to 5 maybe 1 but we could get missed totally, while Gary is indicating we should get nailed.  I trust Gary more than anyone else but this waiting to see what will really happen is nuts. My wife and I own a coffeehouse in Leavenworth, going on 12 years, and I am really hoping for a "Snow DAY".

simplykristi,

what is the link for that feed?

32 degrees here at my house in Grandview..  

In Olathe, KS there is a steady drizzle and its starting to freeze on metal surfaces.

ok, this will be fun as Gary and his team have stepped up with an aggressive prediction .  The Accu-weather forecast, which hadn't done bad this year, had us getting almost five inches today and tonight (yesterday's forecast, Leawood)  They now have us down to 2.5 inches and a 1-3 range as does The Weather Channel.  It will be interesting to compare the general look those two sites use vs. local stations that have much more interest.  It also sounds like at least one other local station is not buying this being much of a snow event.

Let the games begin!

This is what is great about this site, Gary and the team, along with the bloggers, help to explain what they see and why they forecast.

Hey weatherfreak01 - I'm reported the temps over here near LS High School.  Pressure is falling and temp is holding at 33.1  It's fallen a bit.  It was 34.7 about 90 minutes ago.

Randy,
I am watching from this link:  http://www.wmcstations.com/

Kristi

I am just sick over the tornado emergency in Memphis and the fatalities from the ones in Arkansas.  It's hard to get excited about our snow fall with all the tragedy just to our south and southeast.

thanks

Well a dusting for tonite so far streets are covered white as is my car.  Right now big flakes falling looks like it may have arrived......TED  30 degrees.  strong north wind........

Gary - the radar is lighting up/intensifying between Manhattan and the metro- with some heavier stuff approaching the metro from the southwest- is that sleet coming this way?

Hey guys, this morning in Albany, northwest of St. Joe, we recieved about an inch of sleet, and the coolest thing was that it was thundering at the same time.  I am excited about the snow, but we have had our share of the snow up here, as far as I am concerned, you guys in the Kansas City area can have it all.  Right now we are getting some light snow.

Gary, I'm glad to see the forecast seeming to hit this area.  Tomorrow is the 30th anniversary of the great Blizzard of 1978.  Here are some links of some great photos.  One link has photos of the Midwest:

http://hullnantasket.homestead.com/Blizzardlinks.html
http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoindex.html

Look at these Kansas photos:
http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photo1957.html

Kelly in Independence,
I know someone who lives in Flippin, AR.  What is going on down there?

Kristi

Based on reflectivity of the returns and their hard-edged nature, I bet the precip falling between Topeka and Ottawa and approaching Lawrence is sleet, not snow.

Here in rural Lancaster, Ks the wind is really starting to blow and the temperature is dropping fast... it's 24º here right now.

a mix of freezing rain and snow here in Parkville. The temp is 32 exactly.

Brian i  don't know what you are looking at but this is the storm that we have all been waiting for it is comeing together and it will be here for about 10 to 12 hrs and we are to have thunder snow  and it can happen fast  do you remember th oct snow storm in 1997 or 98  it happened the same way this one is comeing together rain all day and then here it was 8 inch was here

I hope this is right on...

Very interesting to know that a 15 year old makes the decision on closing schools...snicker.

Flippin took a direct hit from what I understand.......there was a sheriff's report of buildings in the downtown on fire.
I think there are 4 deaths in Gasville and from what my Grandma in Thayer MO tells me Gasville is no more

You know, the severe to the south, scares me to death of what is to come this spring.  My prayers and thoughts are with all involved with the tornados today.

lets hope this one is the big one i could use the day off

MattP, I experienced the Blizzard of '78 in central Connecticut.  I was in 7th grade at the time and had to walk home a mile from school in the intensifying storm, but luckily made it home before the intensity reached zero visibility and 70 mph winds.  It was the most incredible storm I've ever witnessed firsthand.

Anyone got a guess what 8 inches of snow weighs?  Is this going to be a heavy, wet snow?

As a refresher from jeremy's blog:

s promised about a week ago I told you that I would contact the NWS in Pleasant Hill to get an explanation for all bloggers as to how the snow total is measured at KCI and also where.  George Amis the Observing Program Leader for the NWS at Pleasant Hill sent me some great information in regards to the measuring techniques used at KCI, and also some tips for measuring snow in your own backyards.  Once again thank you to George for the information.  



Snowfall and snow depth observations are taken every 6 hours at the Kansas City International Airport by contract observers. Midnight, 6 am, noon, and 6 pm CST. Snowfall is the new snow that has occurred since the last snow measurement...and is measured in inches and tenths. Snow depth is the amount of old snow still on the ground...or the combination of the new snowfall and old snow...and is measured in whole inches. The observations are taken near the control tower.

To take new snowfall observations when nothing is on the ground can be taken in several ways. If you take a measurement in your yard...look for the snow where it appears to be near its average depth. I.E. you don't want to take a measurement in drifted areas. If cold enough...you can use a patio...or other elevated structure such as your vehicle. If you do measure in the grass...remember when you put the measuring stick in...you will most likely go all the way down to the ground.

However...the snow might actually be sitting from 1 to 3 inches or so above the ground in the grass blades. So to prevent anomalously high readings...you want to only stick your yardstick as far down as to where the bottom of the snow actually is. If you can make or buy...the best way to get new snowfall measurements in non-windy situations...is to have a snowboard. This would ideally be a 16 inch by 16 inch piece of thin plywood painted white. You would place this on the ground or surface of the snow when there is the possibility of new snow falling.

It needs to be light enough to not sink into the old snow and heavy enough not be blown away by the wind. If on snow...the top of the snowboard should be level with the surface of the snow. It would then get swept clean prior to the next snowfall measurement.

In windy conditions...where the snowfall does not stay on the snowboard...you will need to make several measurements around the area to get an average...avoiding the highest drifts. These conditions make snow measurements much harder to do...but experience will help with this.

Billy the kid

maybe it's brian9?

Thanks Kelly  We are trying to find the person I know in Flippin.  I actually saw him online this morning and told him to be safe.  Thanks!

Kristi

Those towns in Arkkansas are just south of Bull Shoals lake....for a geographical reference

I agree Lawguy, I was thinking the same thing... :)

when meteorologist talk about the models they use is that public knowledge or just privy to them?

I've seen a couple of comments re how the severe weather now could be a window of what's to come this spring.  Is there something to that or just thoughts?

just thoughts

this whole storm is a pipe dream look at the radar its already shifting back north

Models are public...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

tricky part is understanding what it means

does anyone think that they will up Jackson County MO to a WSwarnning? just curious

Drizzly but still liquid, no freezing, near downtown OP

thanks rdub

32.2 in lawrence with sleet beginning to fall. mixed in with huge snow flakes and mist.

Teamster83 said:
this whole storm is a pipe dream look at the radar its already shifting back north

zoom out and look at a longer time frame:
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_loop.php

wichita precip is heaviest and is moving ENE, on track for the metro

hey kristi!  Thanks for keeping the yucky weather away for an hour or so this afternoon.  That's all we needed.  You predicted that quite well!

Accually the radar looks like its slowing down alittle and B U I L D I N G!

I hate to be the rat here....

but people......please dont COPY and PASTE Gary's forecast on the "other stations" blog.

Im sure he would hate that. Its a competitive business.

conditions from drexel, mo- 32 degrees with light drizzle, weather underground says it is freezing, but it curently looks like it is not.

man I am so confused....so many different predictions....

I am thinking the same Fire Dog

32.1 here in KCK with snow flurries just starting.

Go to the Topeka radar on weather.gov thats the one I was looking at

remember, lots of forcasts, but only one that is acurate:)

BIG GIANT SNOWFLAKES IN LAWRENCE!!!

Hey Teamster look at the Wichita radar.....

This is the most rapidly developing part of the snow shield in this storm.

It may fizzle but you sure are a negative one on this board when it comes to snow.  No problem, I am in Lincoln, NE now where they got 5 inches today.  More to come, but the energy is down south just north of the closed low as Gary said.

Watch that circle around Wichita tonight.  It will continue to circle, enlarge and enhance in moisture unless the moisture from the SE storms pulls too much gulf moisture out of this one.  That is the closed ULL that Gary mentioned previously.   I don't think it will deminish based on the models that predicted snow for a good 48 hours for us 2 days ago.

Doug,
Thank the team! :)

Kristi

0z NAM is rolling out...

NAM ROLLING OUT.

for those of you watching on the tornadoes to our south here's the NWS Radio!

The Memphis one has 49 people listening to it.  Probably half of them are us.

http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/

28 degrees SN windy and the radar is moving more west to east look at Topeka radar I am in it.  It will be snowing at a rate of .5 to .75 inches an hour for 12 hrs throw in 2-4 hrs of convective snow and STJ gets 10+ tonite on top of the 2 or so of slush this morning......YEAH....MY 10-14 INCHER  as t gets colder snoo ratio goes up from 8-1 or 10-1 to 12-1///////ON my way in GOG'S COUNTRY

On radar, the precip area between Topeka, Ottawa and Lawrence is growing in coverage and intensity!!  Looks like a mix of snow and sleet, based on nature of radar echoes and blogger reports....

Other stations are saying they think KC viewing area will not recieve much snow...This is kinda confusing I hope you guys are right.

32 and drizzle in KCK

whats the new nam saying

Damp and dreary drizzle here near Walmart KCK

stjoelawyer, how do figure you will get that much snow? Gary's map sure does not show that, has something changed?

only 1 station is saying 1-3 and heavier up north, rest are 6+ for metro

NAM has more of the snow north of KC, but KC isn't exactly missing out.

New blog available.

I REALLY don't like what I'm seeing.  Could we get missed again...just maybe!

I have at least 6" of confidence in Gary - maybe more-

These guys are my only source of info- I could care less what anyone else says.

Rock On KSHB and Go LRC!!

I'm a newbie -- what is NAM?

Gardner, KS -  Very light rain shower, changing to snow as we speak.  Flakes are getting larger and more plentiful by the minute.

Temperature has dropped to 28. I can now say it has been all snow for an hour. With the 2 inches we got this morning on top of the sleet and rain that made is slushy is freezing. I watched a truck spend 10 minutes trying to get out of parking lot behind my house. Someone finally got out and had to help push it to get it moving. Very interesting, makes me wonder what the roads are like. I'm anxious to see how much snow we get. I wouldn't mind a snow day.

Hey there 15 yr. old....thought you might need this: (courtesy of dictionary.com)
su·per·in·ten·dent  
Pronunciation: \-dənt\
Function: noun
Etymology: Medieval Latin superintendent-, superintendens, from Late Latin, present participle of superintendere
Date: 1554
: one who has executive oversight and charge
— superintendent adjective

:)P

0Z NAM much less snow for areas south of I-70....

Sleet starting 169 and 68th street!

Well it is right at 30 degrees here north of Lawson. We have some very light sleet hitting the window and the wind is starting to howl. I did just speak with my daughter that lives in Manhattan, Ks and she said it was snowing there. Nothing really heavy yet but it was starting to pick up. Bring on the snow. I could use a snow day, but I work at a hospital in the area and the work never stops there, so I hope I can get to work in the morning. We live in the middle of a field and have a pretty long driveway and it has a tendency to drift, so I hope I can get out. Maybe the tractor and blade will get a work out tomorrow. Everyone stay safe and warm and if you have to get out, take care....nwmissourigal

I really just dont see it. Sorry, i just dont. More gut feeling, than "seeing" anything. Kids get to bed you have school tommorow.

Heavy freezing drizzle in Olathe/ Lennox area.   Anticipate snow within the hour!  
I hope anyway, or this is really going to be a mess before the blizzard gets here.

Based on latest sat and radar trends, still seems like the heaviest snow totals for this event will fall from Emporia to Topeka to St. Joe.  NW side of KC will get heavier snow than SE side.  My reading of the latest NAM run would also seem to trend in this direction.  I would like some alternate interpretations of the data that would support KC being in the bullseye for this storm.

looks like memphis is about to get hit again!!! man its intense down there.

I am listening to a Memphis station and they just issued a tornado warning that lasts one hour!  Yikes!  It is a bad bad situation down there.  I will take snow over tornados any day.

I am listening to a Memphis station and they just issued a tornado warning that lasts one hour!  Yikes!  It is a bad bad situation down there.  I will take snow over tornados any day.

Platte Brooke North, Kansas City, Missouri (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
Light Freezing Rain
32.5 °F / 0.3 °C
Light Freezing Rain Ice Pellets

Gary,
I'm a "rookie" at this and I'm not into blogging much...I don't have the time.  However, I've become a MAJOR fan and I appreciate the enthusiasm and passion that you continuously display towards your profession!  Please continue to be #1, not too mention-keeping me informed and entertained!  Thank you for getting me interested in this weather business...it is fascinating and tricky:)  So, I can't even imagine the pressure you undergo...you handle it well, fyi!!

BTW , still just mist here in Merriam

oh yea, and 33.5 deg

Update one minute later, Large flakes are now mixing .  YES!!! Olathe 119th and Lennox.

34.2 degrees, snow/drizzle mix in Gladstone

We've got some flakes now in Merriam

Officially snowing in Gladstone, mixed with sleet

 
sedsinkc, where in CT did you live?  I grew up in Stonington (Mystic is part of it).  We used to live in Colchester and Rocky Hill.

I hear it sleeting outside.  My wife just went to work and said the precip is now white.

Sleet and wet snow now falling here in Smithville. Ground is getting covered already. Flakes increasing in size and intensity. Hoping for lots of snow so I can relax at home.

Drove into KC from Kearney, Nebraska today. Wow. Lincoln was getting it pretty good while we were there and ended up in all rain just north of St. Joe around 4:00pm. Wild weather day today for sure.