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Here we go again , JoCo misses the heavy stuff

NO!!  I want LOTS of snow in Lee's Summit!!

Is there still a chance?!?

i told you, it never fails

This stinks.  I want snow.

If the trends are now to the north will the snowfall forcast change for Olathe?

Of course.

what?????

I REALLY don't like what I'm seeing.  Could we get missed again...just maybe!

Everyone turn your pj's inside out and put a spoon under your pillows!!!  Amanda says it makes for big snow!

It is sleeting in Gardner.

Gary,
Does this storm fit in your LRC?
Mike

This sucks!!!!

:( oh well we will wait and see what happens

Yet another swing and a miss for the southern metro!

never fails...who knows maybe the NAM is being a little strange tonight...Let's see what the GFS has to say.

Shut up teamster

This town dosent get snow storms like this, it has been like this for years. i called this since early this morning

the storm has begun at the fort...light coating of snow on the deck...will be interested to see whether the convection near lawrence makes it up here...

im sorry for you guys down south...

Kind of like getting punched in the gut.  After looking at the RUC and NAM though, this update is not a surprise.  Still holding out hope but this is not a good update...

Matt.

*collapses on floor*

Now I am really confused...does this mean nothing at all or just lower totals?  Does this still leave a chance for school closings tomorrow?

I am going back to tracking the storms down south.  I will be back later.  

Kristi

I hope the northland still gets their 6 inches!

oh my gosh not agian!!!!!!!!

He said by looking at radar the storm will still be south of KC, I thought we nowcasted and didn't use the models anymore?

we're all freaking..

what do you know!!!! edge of storm 30 miles south= no snow for drexel! I had a gut feeling this would happen! What do we need to do to get snow in drexel?????

2inches max in the loop

Definately panicking!!!!

This is ridiculous! I would think that the models would have a handle on the storm given the fact that it is starting to snow now! How will this affect the snowfall map projections????

whats the matter with u heavysnow , cant deal with reality

I predict areas along the I-435 corridor and points north will still get 5-6 inches from this storm. Areas to the south could get less. That is my prediction for now.

Still raining here in Parkville...

Gardner, KS has changed to all snow now

Teamster83,
The core of the metro and points off to the north will still get a decent snow out of this.

Gary - Are your snowfall projections going to change significantly based upon this information?  What other data will be coming in that will be impacting your forecast (new models, etc...)

we're all freaking out.

for a good reason!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Blasted one minute, not the next....this is crazy

(((((((((((stomach convulsing in waves of sickness)))))))))

The South misses out again.......Sorry people.

Heavysnow......get a grip. So you were wrong......deal with it.

This blog isnt all about what you think.

i live up by kci we get 3 inches max

You can't deal with reality... read what he said.  

Its going to snow... the heaviest snow may switch a little bit north.. but its still going to snow

So if I understand the forecasts over the last few days, we're looking at somewhere between 1 and 10+ inches of snow.  You know, I think you'll probably be right.

This is a different kind of POOF!!!! Meaning snow fall amount POOF!!!!

Well PVT murp I am with you coming down good in STJ as well . . . duration event 12 hours 4-6 hrs HVY SN and then snow 10+  temp 28 ratios will be picking up and the wend is blowing good straight from the north.

Brent, you had to expect this, it has happened too many times this year, it was just too good to be true.  sigh

Snowing heavily in Baldwin City. Already have a coating on the roads and ground.

come on. Its btw sleeting in Olathe

What is NAM??  

Yep yep.  Those of us that stuck with our under 2 inches in So. KC were right.  Or, appear to be correct at this point.  As Teamster83 said... "It never fails."

ahhh...theres the big flakes now....heavy snow, large flakes at the fort.

you sure, gary? things are looking good here...

NAM is a forecast model..."NORTH AMERICAN MODEL"

Im still thinking 6 inches here in Parkville. Sleet is now coming down in Parkville. I feel sorry for you guys down south...

I'm listening to WREG in Memphis and the meteoroligist on there says he's been in the Memphis area for 30 years and today is the worse day in Memphis area history.

the south area's are going to get nothing.

Okay I rate some of these people up there with the Tigerboard after a loss

I just looked at the NAM and there is NO WAY this storm is doing that....

I think the STORM WILL TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH.

Look at the current temperature obs. It is in the 20s in most areas NW of Kansas city and falling rapidly.
A solid wave of snow is hitting areas of Douglas County right now with precip expanding off to the SW.
I will continue to hold my prediction at 5-6 inches for the I-435 corridor with slightly heavier amounts further north!!!!

I've got some new data too but can't put it on the blog.  This stinks.

SHOCKER!
kids go to bed! you have school

Well I hope it trends back towards the south...I thought this would be the big one for Marceline....When I saw the 6-10" band right through us here in Marceline I got excited...I ges we just have to see what happens :(

Also, snowing heavily in Eudora. Started around 8pm.

Emcat, NAM is a model. So is RUC, GFS, WRF (which is another name for NAM, actually)...and several other acronyms I can't recall right now.

history repeats itself

for those of you who bagged on me earlier, it looks as if I was right,. so I'll be accepting your appologies later.

oh and before you people who are so quick to react. read the last posts from around the late afternoon.

prediction for joco
less than 3"
less thanThat is all for now

Its now sleeting in kearney.

Thanks, Jacob!

still 32 and heavy drizzle in KCK

  heavysnow said:
Okay I rate some of these people up there with the Tigerboard after a loss



best statement of the day.
you win!
see EVERYBODY at work tommorow!

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/66061?from=36hr_topnav_undeclared&animation=true
The snow has begun in Olathe, Heavy mist w/medium flakes.
I thought I saw a trend North, I didnt want to say anything.  Were still going to get a good one.  I have a feeling.  

Gary, I loved the last blog so much more!!!

I completely agree with Gary's interpretation of the new data.  I made my interpretation on the previous blog before I knew Gary posted this new blog.  It's good to know Gary reached the same conclusion.

heavysnow you need to recongize  its not gonna happen. do you have a meterrology degree

We've got sleet in Olathe

lee's summit sucks for getting tons of snow.

This is sad, I have no life like the rest of us out here! Can't believe how many hours I have spent on here today.

I wouldn't have it any other way

To bad about the big snow missing us in the loop again but it has been an amazing day thats for sure

Thanks RDub!

What model is he talking about? The NAM and GFS both have us getting hamered.

heavy drizzle and 32 here in KCK

we are going to get hit hard  out of this storm we are all get worried for nothing we ar going toget 6 to 8 inchs i know

Gary I think this storm is a bust...its raining still here.

well i was all excited and so were the kids oh well i guess we will see what happins when its over.

i just dont get how the storm is  for the most part here and no one know what its going to do, this is insane. well it looks like i might some sleep tonight after all .

sad over in the worlds of fun area.

Teamster you can't read.... he didn't say it was moving north he said the models say its trending a bit further north... Gary wrote that based on radar it will still hit 30 miles south

Do you know how to read?

North of Basehor just switched to big snow flakes.  Coming down at a good clip.  This is gonna be interesting! ;-)

SHOULD WE SAY THE P WORD YET.

Gary, get your magic wand out and make it happen down south.  We are dying here!  We come from snow country (Utah) and are not enjoying the snowless winters here in Kansas.  Come on SNOW!!!

I know this is going to sound like a dumb question, but I am curious as to what the GFS is exactly?  And, per emcat's earlier question about NAM-I would also like to know.  Sorry to those of you who are professionals...just a newbie at this:)P

It is unbelievable how some people talk to each other on here.  I like to read what the weather is going to do...not what you think of others on this board.  please snow, please snow, please snow.....

i said 3" in lees summit and am sticking with it..

Now im a little concerned about ice!

Sitting here at the computer, I hear sleet hitting the windows.  Or wait could it be VERY  "heavy" flakes LOL. Dratz.. its sleet

Walmart KCK area

snowing here at 130th and State Ave in KCK

SNOW COMING DOWN IN PARKVILLE!

lol, this is why you must never get too excited over this stuff... the odds are always in favor of the house.. :)

chunky rain over here by the stadiums

Dang, 5kck, I live near downtown OP and my weather has been exactly like yours. drizzle just turned to sleet.

OK IM SAYING IT   POOOOOOOOOOOOOFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF  SORY BRENT IT NOT MENT TO BE

The ground is white in Olathe already, the first wave moves in, im hoping for the radar to fill in.  It is dumping outside.  Even if it shifts to the north im pulling an all nighter with this and enjoy it.

Bryan wanna trade places?? lol

The flakes are huge.

plazajayhawk i agree with you. this is about the weather not you people acting like 2 year old baby's GROW UP!

 

Saw this coming at 6 p.m. with the track of the vort max that was then over W Oklahoma.  King Dry Slot reigns supreme to SE of KC!!!  KC will get snow, heavier to NW and lighter to SE.  What a surprise.  Oh well, maybe next winter KC will get a heavy blasting, ha ha.

heavy snow in lawrence now for about a half hour, already a dusting

I called the NWS and they are likely NOT going to change the weather warning map.  She told me 3-5" for the entire metro and lesser south.  Yet again we get missed..."never fails!"

lol you near the walmart on state ave?

heavy drizzle at 635 in kck

31 in Olathe at 119th & Ridgeview with sleet/snow mix. I'm one of those crazy people that enjoys nice warm weather, but I think even the southern metro will at least see 3-6. Look at the radar!

Snow/sleet mix 169 and 68th!!! It starts!!!

YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME!  It never fails.  A storm could be as little as one hour away and still miss the KC metro area.  Unbelievable.  Simply unbelievable.  What is that sucking sound?  Oh, yeah, it's the heavy snow band being sucked away (this time north) from KC.

heavy freezing drizzle at 113th and cookingham drive

down south, the p word is perfect............. PONCHO!!!

Woohoo!! The LRC is doing its magic again and moving the system up north! 1 (or less) inch for La Cygne... pleaaaase!

Sorry, Adogg I know your're wanting the "Big One", but at least the heavy snowfall will be in driving distance. Kinda like a vacation... nice snow places to visit, but nice to come back home to dry, balmy south of the city.

SNOWING BIG TIME 152 AND AMITY

Mix of sleet and snow in Olathe.

That is the funny thing, it is all about expectations.  Yesterday this time 2-4 inches south (joco) didn't sound bad.  Then you start seeing 6-10 inches and all these big numbers, and everyone gets jazzed up, then boom back down.  I had mentioned before but actually despite Accuweather being a more general weather page, it appears to have been more accurate on snowfall totals the last few storms.

I still love this blog and all the insites, just gets tough getting caught up in the hype.  Also, this storm has been so wacky, who is to say it won't slide again???

it is now sleeting in Riverside!  Sounds like woodpeckers tapping on the windows!

Yes Bryan.  Hrmm.. sounding quieter outside. better go take a peek

Heavy snow in Lenexa. The ground is already white.

David

Jacob are you saying less than 3-5 here in LS

Gary:

Pretty crazy night at the old abode so just a quick check in:

First off and most importantly prayers/thoughts go out to Memphis and Arkansas-what a horrible situation down there.

Been snowing here in SW Lawrence for close to an hour as has been stated-comming down at a pretty good clip with some gusty winds and the streets and grass are already covered.  Looks like a break past Ottawa but more behind that-some more intense bands in SW Douglas county right now. Will be watching what happens in Wichita and where that goes. I'm still not giving up on this yet-will just watch see what happens!!


Bill my towel is still in my pocket in Lawrence

Well it looks like ice pellets out there.  ground is starting to become white tho.

I'll take whatever I can get. :)

I see that dreaded dry slot creaping up I-35 on the radar trend.  It's just not our year here to the South.  I feel your pain Brent!  

A little mix in Blue Springs right now.  I went out on my deck, and it looks to be a combination of a very light rain (more like sprinkles) with a little sleet mixed in.

Gary, I am seeing some interesting things in the vapor.  The ICT vort is not all of the main show.  I am seeing others starting to build behind.  

I need to do a bit more analysis.

POOF.....This thing is going to track near Topeka.  For KC this year it has been sNOw - with NO being the key phrase.

Once again it is a very unpredictable situation. Hope it snows :). It would be nice to get one last big snowstorm for the year.

This 'swirl' near Wicatah looks to be sucking up the moisture into it ... even in the scenario this circulation does hit Kansas City it's not going to be that much - probably in here and out in about 4 hours ... even if we get 1" an hour snowfall rates thats nowhere near 6" in the metro. Even so - looking at trends from the ICT radar site, this thing is shifting too far north to give the Kansas City area the heavier snow.

In other unrelated news - theres a good banding feature setting up from St. Joseph and continuing to the Southwest. Sound familiar?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KICT&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20080206&endTime=-1&duration=2

You guys seriously need to learn to read

He didn't say the storm was not going to hit us... in fact based on radar it will still hit 30 miles south of KC.  Even if it moves a bit north it still hits KC

Do you guys actually read what he post?  

Heavy snow in Parkville. Some spots are already white. It has being snowing for about 10 minutes.

yeah, I dont know how dry it is, I was hoping for any snow, let alone the big one!!!  Im glad the weather down here is making somebody happy though!

Husky07,

Yes, I am saying LESS than 3-5".  2-4" at most is what I think will happen, but something tells me we won't get more than about 2".  I really hope this is wrong, and we get slammed, but I doubt it!

light snow/mist in st jo about an inch of mostly slush on street temp is 31

no!!!!!!(sobs)noooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!! Lee's summit is a terrible winter weather location. NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:( NOOOOONNNNNNOOOOOOONNNNNNOOOOONNNNNOOOOO

It's snowing fat flakes at the Legends in KCK.

lol did I just spell Wichata Wicatah? SORRY!!!!

There is some sort of wintery mix here on the plaza because I just let the dog out and she is black and she came back inside spotted with ice pellets and what looks to be wet snow mix.  Very funny to see her, but she was not quite as amused!!!

heavy snow comming down here in bonner springs streets getting covered

Once you get the rain and sleet mix, you will get snow about 5 minutes later. Looks like my area is in a nice band right now!

Snowing in western Lenexa, big flakes now smaller.

It's snowing big fat fluffly flakes at K7 & 75th in W. Shawnee. A good dusting is already on the ground.

Jayhawk, I really think thats going to fill in, there are some strange radar trends.
I don't think it has shifted to far north to major effect the accumulations "as of yet"
I holding hope.

Spring Hill ground covered in sleet

5kckmartins,
A "neighbor" of yours speaking:
It appears to have switched over to snow and is now dusting my car and the street.

Moderate sleet now falling in Raytown, still showing 33.6F.

http://www.wreg.com reports flooding in of the number of injuries and fatalities from the outbreak in the South.  Union University in Jackson took a major hit with multiple campus buildings down and rescues of trapped students taking place.  The event continues...

lovely beauuuutiful snow coming down downtown kc mo!

Not only is the heavy snow going north, but it now looks almost certain that the storm will go far enough north that the dry slot of this storm will push right into the metro area.  This looks to be almost a certainty on the satelite image.

Matt

Snowing Big fat flakes here in kck around 64 th And leavenworth rd Bring on the 6 to 8.Gary there is a dusting here on the roads and grass.

33.7 snow mixed with sleet in Gladstone

sleet in Independence

Well isn't that just our luck the dumb dome over Kansas city almost makes you wanna cry being so close to a major snow storm it all led up till the finally moment. Nice mother nature maybe this year we can elect a new mother for our nature that'd be nice

still drizzle in KCK @ 635-i35

GARY...WE NEED YOUR INPUT PLEASE!

Moderate Snow in Lenexa

Snow at 123rd & Hollingsworth in KCK.  The ground has a light coating already.

Regardless, theres a dusting of snow up here in the northland now near N. Oak & Barry Rd. :-)

The snow storm does not seem to be shifting that far north.  Emporia is getting some snow by the looks of the radar. Hopefully that band of snow will come up to Lawrence and Kansas City area.  Here is a link to the radar I am using.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=TWX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=38.94374847&lon=-95.28137970&label=Lawrence,%20KS&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999

Yep the ground is starting to turn white and snowing at pretty good rate now.  

I should have been a meteorologist....

just turned over to snow here in KCK 635 & i35

already a dusting in Parkville.

"Other" channel just called for .5 to 3 inches total.....NOOOOOO! Say it ain't so!

Heavy sleet in Gardner

Yes Gary..Please!!  Those "other people" drive me crazy.  We need You!!!

It's here in KCK ground is about coverd here  Gary i think we are going to get it good this time I have been looking at the radar and it looks like it is bloing up over us  what do you think Gary

W I C H I T A is how you spell it..

Still sleet here...hubby said that the roads were starting to get bad in Olathe/Overland Park.  Be careful if you have to drive!!!!!

NWS just updated their forecast.  From North Lee's Summit north, 4-6" and form southern Jackson county and south, 2-4" and from centeral Cass county south, 1-3" of snow.  I still think they are WAY to high.  I would push the totals north and put us (LS) in 2-4" close to 1-3" or less.  Just my opinion.

another station just said .5 to 3 inches for this storm in the kc area

sthori...I heard that too.  

i am gonna set my alarm for 4 and if we dont have atleast 3" by then i wont be happy

temp here at 130th and State Ave is now sitting at 31.2 with a N wind at 8 MPH...still snowing at a good clip with a dusting already.

 
sedsinkc, where in CT did you grow up?  You can understand that since I'm a snow lover the winters here are frustrating for me.  I grew up in Pawcatuck (part of Stonington), about five miles from Misquamicut Beach.  

I'm not sure what everyone is freaking out about.  The radar is filling in very nice SW of KC, so I'm still seeing some good snow heading our way.  I'll see what Gary says at 10.

Pretty much par for the course around here. I have lived here all my life and this is pretty much the result for 75% of the snow storms that are supposed to hit us.

SNOW SNOW SNOW SN PLUS WOW COMING DOWN AND WILL GET HARDER....got to rub it in a little for ten years you guys south got it and missed me.

Looks like we are going to school tomorrow!  I was wanting a sleep in day...well not really because if it snowed like we thought it would, then I would be up all night to watch it. lol.  Now I have to go to bed to get up early for school.  NOOOO!

Ok...

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KEAX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20080206&endTime=-1&duration=2

I picked this image for a reason.  Watch the propagation of precip.  While there is a NE flow, it is filling to the east.  Also, watch the 500mb/850mb winds.  There is a NE flow until this area where it goes more easterly.

This is far from over...things are filling in nicely.  And the vort in Wichita is interesting, it is not the main show.  Look at the RUC and watch how the vort morphs in the next three hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/index_500_l_loop.shtml

Pay particular attention to the last frame.  Dips back south a bit in reforming.

I am still impressed with this...and this is still a developing situation....

Matt P, I grew up in Meriden.  Used to drive by Stonington on the way to Charlestown beach in RI.  Went to Misquamicut a couple of times.  Left CT in 1979.

Here in westner Lenexa (near Desoto) now snowing huge flakes already about a quarter of an inch or more.

Not surprising.

At I-35 & North Brighton Ave it has been 32.4 all evening. Just after sunset, it dropped to 32.2 and has stayed there until it finally went down to 32.0...and the precip just changed over to snow here.

I'm still trying to decide when should I whine and then tell myself to shut-up...

Just now changing from moderate sleet to fat flakes @ 81 & Parallel, KCK.

Dude -- I so see the resemblance of this storm to December 15's light snow....
Sure, its about a hundred miles or so further east, and the metro may have a better chance of seeing something significant... but the pattern... wow.

Today:http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KEAX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20080206&endTime=-1&duration=2

December 15th:
http://photos-d.ak.facebook.com/photos-ak-sf2p/v156/73/61/508280943/n508280943_716743_4834.jpg

Ok  Gary we are all freaking out, gives us some input PLEASE.I'm still hopeing for a snow day

People are freaking out because 6-10" is looking less likely. It's still gonna snow-it already is. But it's probably not going to hit a 10" bullseye on KC. I can see a definite northward lifting on the back edge of the snow near wichita.

Well, it was nice while it lasted...from the 5:47 blog posting to the 8:06 blog posting...at least for a little over two hours KC was in the 6"-10" band.  Oh well.  We'll always have our memories of that two hours and nineteen minutes.  Back to a 1" - 4" storm for KC...with 2" the likely result.

Not much going on in Grain Valley...just a light drizzle, seems really cold though.
Gosh I hope this is our big snow for this season.  I hate wimpy 2" snow storms.

Temp still at 30 here north of Lawson, but our deck is now covered with sleet and it is still sleeting. I think we will still see some significant snow here. I am hoping anyway. I know I don't live in Kansas, but maybe if I click my heels together 3 times it will snow like crazy...LOL...still waiting on the snow to start...nwmissourigal

Snow/Sleet mix now in SW Lawrence-the wind is pretty stiff so it is comming down in a horozontal fashion-If I am looking at the radar correctly, it is filling in south of Lawrence-the other thing is that the precip. is not moving real fast-Lawrence has had the same band over it for about 30-40 minuets. Visibilities are low and the snow (now back to just snow) is really blowing. Very wintery night right now in Lawrence.

Bill in Lawrence

Dusting in Parkville so far, i'm hoping for the "other station" to be completely wrong in their ".5-3" prediction!

I'm not a basher, but this winter season has really taken its toll on the station.  This season has been nothing but blown forecasts.

Well my computer crashed and while it was down the stinkin storm seems to have as well!!!
Now that I have it up and running what an absolute shock. It cannot be possible that this is missing se metro AGAIN! My gosh it was practically handed to us on a platter Gary, what did you see earlier that now has gone POOF!

This is unbelievable!
What do we have to do to the atmoshpere to turn this sucker around and get it here tonight!

listen...

look at the radar trends.  the radar is filling in nicely to the SSW.  everyone needs to stop taking any one persons' word as gospel and look outside-even if they run the blog.  its snowing, and there is a bunch coming.  thats not a dryslot on the radar.  a dryslot=end of precipitation all together.  there is obviously snow behind it.  the whole metro will get snow.  just relax.  it wasnt supposed to really get going until around 11 anyway, so think of this as a bonus!

gary, the blog has lost its charm over the past 4 months or so...its getting too busy.  the quality is diminishing.  ill check back in when i get an inch, and then with final amounts...unless something crazy happens...

murph

Scott,

What is your best guess for total snowfall in Lee's Summit?

I love the new forecast and hope that it's true...I just wish it would move even further north and give us just a dusting here near Liberty.  :)  

All the snow to the west is moving east people

heavy sleet and 33 degrees oh yeah and the ground is covered here by worlds of fun.

Heavy snow at 108th N and Summit.  Ground is white!  Keep it coming!

Scott, I noticed the transformation of the vort max on the RUC as well, thanks for pointing that out.  You are obviously a snow optimist.  I, on the other hand, am not, since l've lived in KC.  I blogged about that earlier.  I just don't have a good feeling about this storm being impressive for KC proper.  It is obviously going to be another big event for Topeka and St. Joe, but that's what the LRC has been predicting as the overall winter pattern and it's been true for the most part (except for last Thursday's storm).

It is near white out in olathe.  Police sirens are going off everywhere.

Update in Lee's Summit...

It's sleeting and mixing with snow...very light snow.

yahoooo!  How anyone in Miami Co. could want snow after the flooding we had today is beyond my understanding!  We have had enough, our rivers are full, our park is flooded and there is enough mud and muck to last until late Spring.  I am thrilled to see the storm track North....enjoy it up there!  

Thank you Scott for being a voice of reason.  I think everyone is way over reacting here.  This is just getting started folks.

here is what I posted earlier for those who bashed me...


  brian1234 said:
From my observations , for what it's worth.  

1. This is a moisture beast. the humitity is at 100%.  There is more than enough moisture in the air, as a matter of fact the atmosphere is saturated.

2. The temp here at K-10 and Renner is 29 deg. (below freezing) winds at around 10-15 mph


If anything significant were to happen, the colder air needed to be here at least 3-4 hours ago. However the warmer air aloft, combined with the slow moving cold front, have not allowed this to happen. there is an inch of freestanding water that is acting as a blanket on the ground and keeping the ground temps from changing much.  The amount of pressure provided and a massive cold front necessary to change this would completly kill the moisture off.

Looking at radar, the cells are not very organized and are isolated, it does appear that it's trying to get it's act together down torwards wichita, however with the amount of moisture in the air, this would be more of an initial ice producer than a snow producer at this point.

But the pattern can change drastically over the course of the next hour. But after that the window will close for anything significant, based upon what I see.

I see .05 to 1 inch of ice, with 2-3 inches of snow, based upon current trends.

 Emmysmom,

If you don't want it...SEND IT SOUTH!

come on gary. Dont be saying this

like usual THE SOUTH WILL RISE AGAIN

murph,
Easy for you to say you have been in a winter wonderland all winter! We have a reason to be a bit concerned.

We'll get 1" tops in Lee's Summit.  This thing is gonna pick up and slide off north and west of us.  It is just too easy to see on the radar.

Out!

Today is the start of sweeps for KC's four TV news stations...and sensationalized forcasts of 10" is a good way to get people to watch!

Noooooo! It's sleeting/snowing in Olathe pretty hard!

N2mountains...your right, we do have that right!

I think Kansas City is like a giant dome.  If you live within 30 to 50 mi of it your just out of luck if you want any accumulating snowfall.  Since I’ve moved back to Missouri in 95, I have yet to see a snow storm dump over a foot of snow.  There was that one storm though that we had about a foot, when was that?

I agree with Scott, filling in quite nicely on radar and the vort near Wichita seems to be morphing a little.  Looks like that is not the main show here.   North of the Legends in KCK everything is white and snowing at a moderate clip now.  This will be interesting

now,. folks,. there was too much moisture in the air and the ground temps from the rain will not allow much of anything. with the warm air alot, and the saturation of moisture,. . yes ***POOF***

by the time the temps to get in here the, cold front will have already sucked the moisture out and the system falls appart.

this is another prime example why you can not reley on just weather maps.  current conditions, radar, and some common sense.

quite frankly you make not have enough precip to make a snowcone.

Well, scott, so far the vort max near ICT is the only one that's producing any snow. there is nothing happening in NM or TX or OK that makes me think that another big round of snow will follow the one near Wichita.

stjoelawyer,
It's all good.  Enjoy the snow, even if enjoying it consists of rubbing it in a little :).  I just hope everyone stays safe out there as even a couple of inches can be dangerous.

jeffkc  THAT was funny..3" in lees summit ..in unity right now we have drizzle no snow

Brian, people already have enough precip to make a snowcone. Already have a coating near downtown OP, though some of it is sleet.

Sleet and snow here in SMithville. Transitioning to all snow slowly. Ground getting covered already. Flakes are getting bigger and more numerous. I think I might still be on the heavier side of things. Sorry about you guys down south.

I guess there were a couple of dorms hit on a college campus in Memphis. 8 girls got out and are in the hospital, 8 boys still trapped but being rescued. One of the girls is my bosses niece. Looks like she will be okay. One of our Field Service guys worked on a machine in a factory in Memphis today and 10 minutes after he left they got hit with a tornado. He said he will call me after the next round with an update. Scarey down there right now.

Brett34...where in Olathe are you because it's still sleet at 151st and Pflumm.

it's funny how people are so quick to reply back when they want to argue, but when you are right, they remain silent.

When Gary made his 6PM snowfall forecast he was kind of going out on a limb. The risk with that is sometimes when you go out on a limb, you fall out of the tree. If there is a lot of snow on the ground, the fall isnt as hard, but it will hurt if the ground is bare...

I am ready for spring.

snowing pretty good in leavenworth it's covered up here.

"As we said at 5 and 6...1/2" to 3" MAX!"
Great, now that other weather guy is bragging that he was right all along. C'mon mother Nature...prove him wrong! Please?

It is snowin' and blowin' here just north of Basehor.  Wow...that wind is rough!  The ground is completely covered.

"everyone needs to stop taking any one persons' word as gospel and look outside-even if they run the blog."  PVT Murphy

Yes!

Gary has an update on the top of the blog

Jeff why don't you go away, you don't know anything about Gary if you think that is what he did.

On the other station still says 6-8 inches of snow

I was not talking about down town or at the airport, I was talking about johnson county for the most part. and by the way, I was using the snowcone as only an example,. of course there will be enough to make a snowcone... geezzz.. a little too litteral  in here.  I guess when I was talking about common sense , you must have missed that part.

the radar still looks fat..a nice dry slot did form though..

Light snow in Lee's Summit

The alarmist channel says we will have near blizzard conditions tomorrow and still 6-8 inches for the KC area. The downplay channel says .5 to 3" and still in the 40s for the weekend. Good grief. No wonder I only trust this channel.

it is thundering in Grandview, sleet/snow

N2mountains, totally agree.

JeffKC, good point.

I don't like the sound of that. It moving further north....

Brian- respectfully - you have NO idea what you are talking about
Too much moisture in the air- ground temps-- are you kidding me--

I'm going to scream and cry tomorrow morning if there is less than 2 inches of snow fallen...

Yep-I'm 60 miles southeast of KC so NO SNOW.

light snow blowing in Leawood.  Starting to color the ground

I would not look foreword to the "blizzard conditions" or the "6-8 inches" of snow!  Lean more towards the lesser forecast!

HOPE THINGS CHANGE!!!

Very slick sleet in OP.  I know Gary is playing games with us.    How many of you will tune in at 10:00 to find out the long awaited answer, I know I will.  Breaking news.....  No school tomorrow  kids!

snowing here in S OP

farmgirl, that is too funny!  The alarmist and the downplay channels.  I couldn't agree with you more.  Do your thing Gary!

Good grief, guys!  All he said was that it was shifting back to the north...not that it was dead.

We are going to get some snow, and if we hadn't heard whispers of "10 inches" we'd all still be excited at what we are getting!

You know,. all this missplaced aggression in here, I don't get it. If your gonna call me out when I'm wrong, then also acknowlege me when I'm right,. seems fair.

man it is snowing and sleeting hard in KCK 635 & i35

aww c'mon heavysnow jeffinkc was just having some fun with Gary..Gary did go out on a limb with his snowfall prediction..even with others like myself the omnipitent (sp) dryslot saying 3"

FYI-Gary posted an update!

nothing here yet.

AGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. SE is S-O-L again

Brent, are you surprised-again? I still think us southerner's get less than one inch, maybe an inch and a half. That's what every other storm has done this season.

Lots of blowing snow/sleet in Shawnee! I could hear it hitting the side of the house and when I looked outside it looked like a blizzard.

It's been snowing for the past 45 minutes at 75th & K7 in W. Shawnee. Average snow depth of 3 readings is just shy of 1".

Brent,

If the southern edge of this storm is 30 miles south of the metro I think we're out of luck.  

Sleet/snow mix in Roeland Park.  Very small flakes.

well, saying "POOF" is not common sense. it's obviously a significant precip event. i just stepped outside and snow and sleet are blowing sideways and accumulating. and btw, i'm in johnson county, not the airport or downtown.

on the other hand, i've been suspicious of the 6-10" forecasts for KC all day myself. 3" is a much better bet.

I probably should not do this, but I just want to show this map.  Please don't blast me for this, just take a look to compare...

http://www.kctv5.com/wxmap/13469564/detail.html

thats my attitude!

brent will you put you "screaming and crying" on utube  soon..?? i would love to see that.You are to funny!!

Gary I saw your live break in just now we still have hope also I'd like to mention nashville tn is under a tornado warning right now nothing confirmed for touching down yet.

So are you not thinking that we will have 6-10" in the metro now? If that's the case.. NOOOOO!

Just checking in here are 72nd and Kaw Drive.  Snow with sleet and the wind is so strong that visibility is way down.  There is about .5 inch on my deck railing on the south side of the house out of the wind.  Hope we get the 6", I want a snow day!!!!

Gen

whats with the little dry slot forming right south of me!!!!

jpnkc,
why don't do do your homework. As I stated in my last entry. if you read my previous ones you would know what i was saying about the ground temps due the the one inch of rain that fell today keeping the ground temps above freezing , which would prevent a buildup of snow.

the oversaturation of moisture with the absence of the colder weather ariving so late decreased our chances for significant snowfall.  this is what I said several hours ago.  Now would you like me to drive over there and write in on the chalkboard for you with littke cartoons for illistration so you can understand what I am saying, or do you think you got it.??!!

brian1234 i have no idea what you are talking about but you are a weather god..feel better?

what did gary say?

Heavy snow and high winds North of Leavenworth, ground is covered

Gary's update says that still looks 30 miles south of KC and the forecast only tweaked a bit.  Considering all the different forecasts, and looking at a couple radar loops, it looks like after a bit of a lull the snow coming up from Emporia and Wichita should at least give even south side JOCO KS a decent snow.  Thinking the 3-5 for the south may be on target from earlier today.  Just guessing as I am not savy enough to interpret all the data.

Radar is starting to fill in. Everything is white in Parkville.

I hate to be a pessimist, but I new this storm would leave us high and dry south east of the city.  There has to be some reason why almost ever-single storm either goes south or north of the city.  You could make a good income just betting on which side of the city was going to be missed (no seriously).

If we don’t get this storm is there any hope, or was this our last shot?

 " dryslot said:
brent will you put you "screaming and crying" on utube  soon..?? i would love to see that.You are to funny!!"

I've been let down too many times.

wow somebody is gonna be wrong again now he says 1-3 for the metro and southeast MO a dusting

Here is one of those cases.....Gary had the low just south of Harrisonville when he was talking 6-10 across the metro he would only have to miss by 40 miles or so to make this a bust for the metro. Only this time it may miss 40  miles west of Harrisonville then Topeka and around to St. Joe get the snow. Since the radar is showing the snow shutting off south of ICT and lifting quickly north the metro misses again

roads are covered here at 130th and State Ave, I dont think the rain has anything to do with the snow initially melting on contact, it seems to have cooled enough to accumulate on roadways.. By the way still snowing here and temp is now 29.8

mt is a idiot he has changed it so many times

Gary,
What do you think the accumulation will be in the Kearney area? I mean Fox 4 says 1-3 inches and at 6 you said 6 inches. I am really confused. That is a big difference when it comes to kids going to school or not. LOL.  I was just curious. I LOVE the snow and would love to have 3 feet of slow personally. I know that wont happen though. :)

Jacob- buddy- you that is totally against the rules of this blog--your a great blogger and know better.....

wsmv.com live tornado coverage in nashville an nbc affiliate.

Heavy snow, howling wind Gladstone...33.3 degrees, side streets are covered.

For a very brief time we had near white out in Olathe.  We got blasted for a moment.  Waiting on the next band.  We had close to .50 inches in less than an hour.  Police sirens were going off everywhere.  This is fun!  LOL.

I think the kid's on the southeast side are going to have school tomorrow...all the snow total's are going WAY down....

He has changed it a lot....everyone has...

Started Snowing near Worlds of fun at approx 8:30pm with a mix of sleet and REALLY BIG SNOW FLAKES.
It's 9:30 now and we have a thick dusting same BIG FLAKES put now there going sideways blowing out of the north east. I haven't seen anything like this since I lived in Utah.

I agree Mike Thompson is an idiot. Half of his stuff is so full of crap.

I still say 5-8 inches in Olathe

i think all the weather guys have to change their forcast teamster83..because the STORM IS SHIFTING!! what do you want them to do?

GFS looks at little further north at 12 hours not by much though

Brent...me any you (and any other depressed snow lovers) need to take a nice vacation where there is a lot of snow all the time!  I am sick of getting the short end of the stick!

Take a look at some of the livecams on:
http://www.kcscout.net/

From my office to the Federal courthouse in KC is by car 52 miles as the crow flies likely 45 that is not much margin for error.

Snowing in Blue Springs!!!

Not to bash anybody, but if the guy with the big hair and bad ties on the other station ends up nailing this one for KC (that is, .5" to 3") and Gary blows it (KC clearly in the 6"-10" area on his map), then, well, that sucks.

It has started snowing in SE KC (Bannister & Blue Ridge area)

So, I left my house at 9:10 to drive the 2miles and pick up my boy at BB practice. Got home at 9:20...couldn't see my tire tracks it's snowing so hard here in KCK (Legends). "Other" channel still calling for lil snow - less thant 4 inches. Wahhhhh

heavy snow still in Parkville with howling winds.

Lets go Olathe 5-8 inches

Yawn....maybe it's time to go to bed. No snow for us....:(

I agree Jacob....

LOOK AT THA RADAR NOT THAT BAD AFTER ALL...IT COULD SHIFT EAST.

well she's sticking with gary's forecast

I really wish when a forecast is made, it would be underestimated vs. freak'n everyone out and letting down the ones that really want the heavy stuff.  ALWAYS happens here in KC.  Are they looking for ratings or what?

JPnKC...sorry, I just want to show that because we all know now that Gary is one of the first to say we aren't going to get much on the south side.  I am only a supporter of Gary and his team...I just wanted to put that out there.  Thats all.

Verry Verry light snow falling in grain valley, could be mist, but I'm pretty sure it's snow

the storm we needed to produce significant snow was the strom that punched through and dropped the tornados, if that one would have hit us, combined with a faster cold front, then we woudl have had a major snow event. It will snow, people,.. just not the storm we all wanted. but this strom shifted further sw and developed into severe weather from the pattern much like yesterdays weather with 70 deg and a 30 deg temp drop in less than an hour and a half. this one was not organized at all and wouldnt get it's act together.

and no Dryslot, i'm not a weather god, but i have been chasing storms for over 10 years and I know weather patterns. If this were a chase. i would have gone south west,.. while most of you would have followed the masses and went south east. and would have stood there looking stupid.

"steveluvs3 said:
wow somebody is gonna be wrong again now he says 1-3 for the metro and southeast MO a dusting"

Gary said that?

  chfs327 , you are not supposed to mention the other people in the city. You can only say another station. So many different forecasts....

NWS for Linn County: Tonight...Widespread rain...freezing rain...snow...sleet with possible thunderstorms in the evening...then snow and very light sleet likely after midnight. Wow! we'll get every form of precip tonight except large hail. Guess this is what you call a mixed bag for sure.

Hey dont Bash gary.

Its Kansas city weather. Everything is always north or south of us

arrowhead stadium is the safest place during a tornado because we all know there will be no touchdowns there

5-8 inches of snow for olathe

beckysma...NOT GARY!  It was a different station.

ok first of all I need to learn not to bet on snow...I betted someone that we would get 3 inches in harrisonville....on Gary's forecast....and this will likely be the second time I have to pay up....I think my friends right...or at least partially...weather people are almost never right when it comes to snow.

my bad...I won't be betting anymore ....on anyone's forecast...oh and chfs327: I will bet 20 dollars that you will not get 5 to 8 inches of snow! rofl...back to my betting ways....except on the other end!

hmm maybe thats a good idea...bet that we WON'T get snow! yeah thats it...

I know your a BIG supporter of Gary and this blog and I know your intentions were good-

Union University President on Nashville feed...  Two women's dorms completely destroyed and eight students still trapped.  Classes are canceled thru Feb. 13th.

Kristi.

Lol brent

I will not accept because im waiting for Gary to come on the air.

still heavy sleet over here and we went down to 32 degrees

Please folks, let's be respectful of others and not name names or call other people names here.  Forecasting snow is tough in this area, it's just a fact.  Let's see how Gary updates his snow totals on his 10 p.m. show.

The radar is looking good, the snow is moving east! I can see the next band forming down to the southwest, cant wait for this one.

well said brian1234..i would have stayed home with a beer and laughed at you being blown away in a tornado..while the others went south east and you south west.

Ok...I'm done for tonight.  See ya at 10 Gary!  Everybody, have a great night and hope for snow!  

Later!

hey brent, I'll betcha 20 bucks I can keep you from betting?

yeah its too depressing here...the whole area of snow is moving north...

Trying to Watch Severe Weather Coverage on Dial Up is crappy too.

"brian1234 said:
hey brent, I'll betcha 20 bucks I can keep you from betting?"

LOL

Light snow at 151st and Pflumm.  Kids really want a snow day tomorrow and I have to admit that I wouldn't mind sleeping in!

GARY did you just say 2-3in for the metro on action wether plus?

Brent, King Dry Slot demands his tribute!

Dryslot,
I track storms via my computer...  I use forums, NOAA, and live feeds.

Kristi

Don't listen to others, if you blog here, than you should already know why, accuracy!
Gary did not say a dusting- lol.  Of course, this is a winter storm, they change rapidly, they do weird things.  But your only going to get the accuracy here, whether its a let down or not, it will be accurate.  That's why I like it.
Im learning from this, having a blast watching the radar.  

Brent its all good soon it'll be spring storm time!

Dryslot. That was very rude and unacceptable.

dont be hating a person who has a different opninon than you

Seriously some people on this board are acting like little kids.

don't bet on anyones forecast ever!

at least on snow totals...a minor shift and boom..you get nothing..or everything!

I am not blaming Gary at all.

He did as good a job as he could...which was better than the one station

N and W part of Union University took a bad hit.

Kristi

Wet, drippy and cold in Harrisonville.  Not cold enough to freeze, though.

THE NWS video update at 8:30 still has the metrol in 5-7 with just south of 435 3-5.  Stating heaviest snow midnight to 6 am.  

6-10 inch snow band up north.

"nikieis said:
GARY did you just say 2-3in for the metro on action wether plus?"

I wouldn't doubt it,...with 1 inch to the south

Andrew...don't cuss please.
same to chfs327.

It's snowing in Blue Springs. Not real heavy, but starting to get harder as the wind picks up, and there ground is starting to turn white. I can feel a thin crust of ice on the side of my house. I'm still really hoping for a lot of snow. I'm waiting anxiously for the 10:00 report!

nice dryslot,. however when you chase you don't drive into the approaching storm you drive to the south and west of it and get behind it, oh maybe I shouldn't tell you that. SOrry my mistake,. yeah dryslot, just drive right into an oncoming wall cloud, don't mind the hail and debris, it's all part of the experience.

plus dryslot, i'd have some great footage for you all to talk about.

Did Gary come out on tv with update, I missed it

wow kristi..so how much here in unity my vote still as it has been since 7am..3"

Just went outside again. All snow now and it is coming down hard and fast! Ground completely covered already. All of the standing water on my property is frozen or slushy. Wet roads are now covered, too. Looks like a brief break moving over us shortly and then it picks back up for real.

It looks like no one read the last sentence of the last update by Gary. He said, "I wouldn't panic yet, snow lovers." And yet, there is panic. Relax everyone and enjoy the storm. Sheesh.

For those of you/us who are upset about all of the negativity, rudeness and rule breaking (which has been the "norm" here lately), I suggest you email Gary or others on the weather team as they do not read all the comments. They only read them when they are actively on the blog, and when the weather intensifies they generally update the blog and get back to their real job of trying to figure things out. They are probably not aware of all the crap that happened here last night or some of the rule breaking going on now.

If this kind of stuff keeps up this blog may go away. I would hate to see that. Someone last night had an idea to "deputize" (did I spell that right?) certain trusted people so they can act as moderators. That sounds like an excellent idea.

Off my soapbox now.

Keep the updates rolling in people. This is gonna be an exciting weather event!

Cheers!

Erik in Smithville

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=webbriefing

update from NWS

"Heymom said:
Wet, drippy and cold in Harrisonville.  Not cold enough to freeze, though."

we have a glazing here.

I feel like I have battered weather watcher syndrome

Sleeting in SW LS. We will have 2-4" by morning. Not exactly what we were hoping for. But its better than nothing.

I feel like I have battered weather watcher syndrome, I always comeback

I feel like I have battered weather watcher syndrome, I always comeback

No offense Gary, but you are going to get a lot of flack from people if Johnson County doesn't get hit hard like you said it would on the 6:00 p.m. newscast.

I'm still not giving up!  This thing just needs to shift more ENE than NE.  We'll see what happens.

look at the development in southeast kansas near the oklahoma panhandle. if that continues, the tail of the storm could develop further south and wrap around counter-clockwise:
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_loop.php

yep, Gary is now saying it misses us to the west

I want snow also, but for those that just have to have alot of it..   Do what I did, enlist in the Army and get stationed in Alaska..    I've had plenty of snow in my life.  

With that said, whatever mother nature gives us, is what we get.   Gary and team have such a hard time predicting snow amounts...

Great job nonetheless...

I am not tracing our storm...  I am more of a severe weather kind of gal so am tracking the storms down south.

Kristi

nikieis,
Gary did say 2 inches on the south side on action plus!  UGH!  NOOOOO!
But his update he just did on the blog says that he is not going to change it much just tweak it!  (feeling hopefull??!!)

I have class at joco tomorrow and I actually want to go.  i get a test back and a paper back.  i would also miss my math class that I really enjoy!  
My kids really want to be out of school though!

sorry brian1234..i would not want you to get hurt in a tornado just thought you could shake hands with the other weather gods thats all..no harm just teasin' ya  you seem to be very sensitive and getting upset all the time just thought i would throw some humor at you.guess you didn't catch it..i'll leave you be.

This is one of those times that we grade the weather guys at 6-8 hours from the start of a storm.   at6:00 Gary and the team had the metro in the 6-10 range.,
According to what I just saw him say.......they missed this BIG TIME for the metro

What a shame, I wanted a lot of snow

very fine snow comin down at a good pace now

what does it look like for kci airport

Brent,

Just based on my physical observations.  We're in town and nothing that I touched in my yard was freezing up.  However, the trees are looking a little shiny in the street lights.

brian1234, if this were a chase, you would be watching the surface low and the subsequent dryline that formed in AR.  As I have seen from the SPC tonight, this has been deadly.

Also, as you make mention of that - the reason that it is so potent is due to the very high dew points and the subsequent strong convection forming along the warm sector and along the dryline.  It is very clear on the sat images.

I know you know all this...but the dynamics of a snow storm is much different than that of a severe weather setup.  I continue to learn about snow as it is so much more tricky.  Severe weather is hard enough..but snow is tough.

I think we may get a bit more than you think, but not sure I was always positive on the high end.  I think I said today that the general metro should get 3-5 with areas NW/SE more/less.  I still am not ruling out the convective potential where we may see a burst or two...

2 inches sucks after 3 to 6.....

0.7 inches here in Parkville! still snowing and waiting for the next band.

"According to what I just saw him say.......they missed this BIG TIME for the metro "

I'm sorry...but maybe 4 was right again?.....

Kristi: My bosses niece was in one of those dorms. She is in the hospital but looks to be okay. My counterpart in Memphis left a factory today 10 minutes prior to it being hit by a tornado and has had to take cover a few times since he got home. Looks like another round for them as the cold front passes. Crazy!

I'm still seeing nothing on radar or satellite to indicate the big snow is going to materialize for KC proper.  The vort max and its accompanying dry slot continue on the same path they were on when I commented before 6 p.m. that I felt like the heaviest snow would be NW of KC based on what I saw on satellite then.  Thus far, nothing has developed behind the vort max that would make a direct hit on KC.  Maybe the RUC is right and the storm will go through a transformation in the next few hours, but right now it's not apparent on the current satellite or radar images...

how much did gary say for lawrence?

kristi I been watching tornado feed out of nashville really interesting.

snowplow just went by my house.

yeah folks,  be nice to each other.  People died tonight because of this storm, lost their homes, ruined lives....this storm will be back next time through the cycle, I just hope we're not the ones looking down the funnel.

did you say that the low needs to track south of the city to get 2-3'' (on action weather plus)

Looking at the current radar trends, looks like east and south sides of metro are going to get the shaft, yet again. Looks like the heavy stuff is going to ride 35 up to the north, skirting by the heart of KC. Current conditions here in Douglas Co. is heavy sleet with large snow flakes mixed in. Sleet is pounding the windows and roof...if the sleet keeps it up much longer, the snow totals will be reduced here in Douglas Co. as well.

its 30 and we are having grapple (sp?) in Tonganoxie, we have a heavy dusting with big white chunks falling from the sky.  Very slippery on foot almost bit it on the sidewalk.

I really do love this blog and the passion and LRC insite that this site gives.  It does pick up trends well, however it has been frustrating on the missed calls on the snow totals lately.  These are pretty large misses from snow totals over the last two storms.  Going from 6-10 for the entire metro to now maybe 1-2 inches in the south is a big miss in a short period of time (6-9 pm) with the storm getting close.

I am actually ready for Spring after Monday, but then got psyched up for a good snowstorm late today.  

Well, we are still all better off then Arkansas and Tennessee.  That is some pretty scary stuff.

Yes, still signifigant storm for us up north.

Gary just said biggest band of snow KCI to St. Joe

Actually getting sleet/hail stones , small but looks like a Spring storm.  

Just came from a basketball tourney at Cleveland. It is sleeting heavily in Harrisonville, but only mist/drizzle in Adrian

Ok I have to tell you in Basehor all we have had is sleet! Right now it is big, loud sleet. If i did not know better i would say it was hailing!! The ground is covered with only sleet!

;{  I want my 3-5 inches of snow

Yeah LRC, I have been listening to the feeds for quite awhile.

Let's think of the people to our south...  Many lives have been impacted today.

Kristi

Light snow at Baldwin City @ 10pm.

ok i lied it, the temp dropped from 1/2 hr ago its 27.  and heavy grapple

Just fyi, the correct spelling for precipitation also known as snow pellets is "graupel."

The snow has pretty much stopped in Blue Springs. There's a light dusting on the ground, but nothing significant.

I'm really not very weather savvy, but I would guess about 5'' in Blue Spings by the end, maybe a bit less.

Snowing still in Piper...my Siberian Husky won't stay inside...he keeps pawing at the door to go out, then, when I let him out he just sits there in the snow, sometimes looking at the sky as if to say, "c'mon....bring it!" Ya gotta love the snow dogs!

Snow in Kearney!!! I hope it does not stop! Wind is blowing like crazy also!! I can't help but get my hopes up for A LOT !!! :) ;)

THe latest water vapor loop shows the dryslot forming to the east of ICT making a B-LINE for the metro

Erik,
I hope that your boss' niece will be OK.  I hope all those she knows at the university will be OK too.  Your counterpart in Memphis was lucky!  I hope that all the people who work with your couterpart are OK.

Kristi

Juniorfan, we are getting the same "graupel" here, never seen it quite like this except in Thunderstorms.

I agree kristi lot's of damage down there.

Besides the snow, also hearing sleet pellets on the windows pretty hard. Still snowing in Piper (KCK, Legends area).

to me in the last frame of the water vapor loop it looks like the dryline is moving to the east...

Graupel is a German word, hence the unusual spelling.

Will there be any on aor apologies, this is embarrassing

Yeah didn't know how to spell it.  I knew there was a fruit called grapple but couldn't remember what snow chunks were called.  

Sleet in Louisburg for about 20 minutes. Covered the ground and stopped.

To me, it looks like the point of the dry slot is taking a path that will lead it very close to KC in the next couple of hours.

TheBlogger...what's so embarrassing?

I want atleast 3 inches. I dont care if were abve. I just want 3 or 4 inches for Olathe

The Dragon says... POOF

Too bad there's not a font size widget here or the Dragon would be saying POOF in 72 pt.  ;-)

heh heh heh

guess they should of stuck with their intial 1-3 inch prediction

Wow guys...this thing's just getting started and you're already all gloom and doom.

TheBlogger

On air apologies???  For what???  This is as good as you'll ever get it here in KC!  Gary IS NOT in control of what the weather decides to do people!  He is in the profession of making weather forecasts as best as is possible!  

Why don't YOU become a Meteorologist and give it your best shot...

Oh, you know, guaranteed 6 in metro wide and 3 hrs later it will be a dusting

how many storms is that the NWS has missed on this year

Moted

Gary just said 3''-6'' for KC metro area. I can live with that. It's not as much as we all hoped for, but it's better than the dusting from the last storm.

Parkville is in the 3-6 inch band, yes! Snow falling hard again.

3-6 inches Gary says for Kansas City

3 inches, then 8 inches, now 3 inches....oh well, such is life in the midwest.  

TheBlogger...Gary didn't say a dusting.  

we still love you gary. its a bit disappointing. you did ur best.

A friend of the Dragon's came up with this little ditty awhile back...

Puff the magic dryslot
lives in KC
And frolics in the winter storms
Taking snow from you and meeeeee.

;-)

most stations are only predicting an inch or less now

Still snowing like a big dog in KCK.

Gary just said still 4-6 north of I-70 same as 2 other stations in KC.  On ly 1 station is saing 1"...and we know who that is.

Thinks look good for the NWS forecast right now where the Winter Storm Warnings are.

3-6 is way better then nothing/...6-10 would have been really cool...But come on...its Kansas City..I havent seen that in years here in the metro area. So 3-6 it is...Still snowing really good here at 130th and State Ave..temp is 28.1

If the storm would shift just a little more East then I would feel much better

I will take 3 to 6, I was calling for 4 to 8

If Gary says 3 to 6, I will take that.....but I am not happy

here's my prediction 1-8 inches, there that covers a big area, that way I'm not wrong

Gary,  I saw the live shot from Bonner Springs and I just want to tell you that just North of there in Basehor it is mostly sleet. I want the snow but for now if this keeps up we will have 3 in. of sleet.

Oh and TheBlogger if you dont like the weather team go somewhere else. You cant get it right all the time! And most of us looked at the info and saw the same thing. be nice or go to bed!

Whats the forecast for Springs arrival?

> If Gary says 3 to 6, I will take that.....but I am not happy

On two blogs.  ;-)

heavy...if you think about it, 3 to 6 isn't really all that different from 4 to 8!  :)

NOW I KNOW SNOW IS RACEIST

One station had Blue Springs with NO snow

I already have a little more than a dusting at my house

I am seeing Eastern movement on the latest radar trends and the precip is getting stronger!

well I have 1/2 inch already so according to MT it's almost over for me in KCK

LOL, KCDewayne!  You made me blow Mountain Dew through my nose!

it will shift east....after midnight...

1.2" at the fort and still coming down...this is going to be a big one! like i said earlier, ill check back in with final amounts unless the situation warrants.

murph

> NOW I KNOW SNOW IS RACEIST

OK... somebody gonna jump on this one? If not the silliness of the message, how about the spelling.  ;-)

Poof that is very creative!! LOLLOLLOLLOL!!!!

Poof that is very creative!! LOLLOLLOLLOL!!!!

Do I ever feel good!!! Since yesterday morning, I have been saying I was positive that areas south of KC would get a dusting to maybe and inch or so, maybe some light frozen precip. I sure caught heck the whole time for saying that! That is why I never canceled my plans for tomorrow. Now I know I am not crazy !

Its pouring down ice pellets here in SW LS...........WOW!!!!!!

well all you ppl north and west of sedalia. HAVE FUN tomorrow i will be in school waiting and hoping for an active spring. (with storms in rural areas)

Gary in the update:  "Our original forecast may only have to be..."  I guess I would like to know what "original forecast" means?  Was it last night's at 10 p.m., today's at noon, 6 p.m., etc. etc. etc.  The numbers have gone up and down and up and down. Weather Crew could you respond?  I know I have asked in a previous blog exactly what time the 3 degree warranty (hope I got the right station!) is logged as the "prediction" temperature.  So...WHAT TIME was your ORIGINAL FORECAST and WHAT WERE the INCHES predicted?

I have a dusting on my deck.

Kristi

kellyann,

We are getting 3 to 6 inches

You are wrong

just now got down to 32 in LS...its "raining" ice pellets

I am waiting for spring.

Kristi

Snowflakes are getting fatter in Olathe.

Heavy snow, wind NNW 15-20 gusting  @ Baldwin City 1035pm.

forecast is calling for 1 to 12 inches.......lol

heavy...you have been saying since yesterday that KC would get blasted! You even came out and scolded some for thinking it would do nothing. My, you sure changed in an hour or so.

Everyone in the northland,
Enjoy the snow and take pics for those of us in the south part of the metro. :)

Kristi

>We are getting 3 to 6 inches | You are wrong

Wanna put a sawbuck on that? Eh? Tough guy.  ;-)

is'nt that 3 degree deal on 9

MT just makes me laugh.

hey people,. I can defend myself thank you.

as for Dryslot. no worries I'm not one of those people you are going to offend on the internet, those people don't have lives and live their vicariously through others buy creating drama. so no worries. you have put together some decent posts in the past. I think you are well informed and educated.

and scott..yes your correct severe weather and a snow event are two differnt things. I agree with you. but man they are frustrating as hell to chase!!  but yes,. i called for about 3-5 inches I think? I don't remember.

It's snowing like rain (straight down and hard) in Piper.

you had to see the post last night for that to make sence

I have not posted in quite some time but I have been reading the posts all day and I think there are people that are being too hard on Gary.  He did his best.  He gave us his best prediction and it is not his fault that it is not exact. He is not physic. I am just as upset as most of you.  I wanted a big snow storm and it appears we may still get it.  Out of all the other forcasters for Kansas City, he has proven to be the most accurate.  So lets give him support, not bring him down.

Poof...LOL...how funny...sawbuck!

The Dragon didn't know you could "buy creating drama". What does creating drama do for you? And how much is it? Maybe the dragon could use a can of creating drama. Or does it come in a box?  ;-)

i always try to watch "the other station" when I need a good laugh.

I don't know if u noticed but we are well over 450 blogs and I don't know what the record is but that's alot of blogs in recent weeks

Ok good news in Basehor!!! IT IS JUST SNOWING!!!! all the sleet has stoped and just snow now. My kids are mad that they had to go to be on time tonight but I still say no school of them tomorrow. Yea for them ;)

0.8 in Parkville. This storm is going to be big.

i'll tell you one thing for sure,. we may not have gotten the snow storm we all wanted here in johnson county,. but the wind and blowing snow would be the thing people need to watch out for. 20 mph winds with higher gusts.

I live in Kansas City north of the river, just S of Gladstone.  Based on what's fallen so far (about 1/4 inch at most) and what I see on radar and satellite, I will make my own prediction of 2 inches or less at my location.  If tomorrow morning there is only 2 inches of snow at my house, then Gary's forecast was off because I'm in his 3 to 6 inch band.  But that's ok, because shoveling 3 to 6 inches of snow is literally a pain.

lol i agree bryan. except the chick in the morning of the fox station, man she needs to do something with that hair. Try some product lady...

have a good night! No reason to stay up.

anyone in KCK still getting snow?  By walmart its stopped

momof3nBasehor...where are you? I'm at 113th and Donohoo and it stopped sleeting here and is snowing to beat the band!

Sleeting in Blue Springs.

Just barely snowing for the past hour in Roeland Park with very small flakes; hardly covering the sidewalk.

Really coming down in Olathe.  The roads are really slick and completely covered.  

Sleet just started again in Louisburg. No snow yet.

The sooner you realize this is all about eyeballs, the sooner you see through the drama and hype.  There have been close to 500 posts in less than 3 hours.  The more traffic they can drive to the blog, the more eyeballs tune in to their newscasts.  It's not a coincidence that most blog entries are pimping either the morning, midday or evening newscasts.  Enjoy it for the entertainment value and realize the weather is nothing more than an educated guess.  If you want to know what the weather is doing go stand outside.  When it is done snowing, stick a ruler in the ground.  That is the proper definition of "Nowcasting".  

Odd: wind has slacked to not much, maybe 340/10 @ 1050 at Baldwin City. Still heavy snow.
Overnout...

New Blog is up

I just checked the radar and it looks as though the precip going around Sedalia.  By the looks of the current radar Sedalia will be left high and dry.  NWS is still calling for 1-2 I am beginng to think that is stretch.   Bellgolf, I guess I had better to get bed here in Sedalia, it look likes I am going to have to get up and go to school tomorrow.  Was kinda hoping for a snow day!    

It seems they have let us be able to comment on old blogs now, how nice!