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Does anyone know the "official" snowfall amount for KCI?
It seems like they got so much less than Platte City again!

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KCI had 3.2" total

Gary

Maybe the official total for KCI from this storm has not come in yet because it is still snowing lightly.

I heard something about another storm next week? is it too early to tell?

What a disappointment!  I was looking forward to a pile of snow.  We had 2.5" in East Shawnee close to 69th & Switzer.

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I am with you. I haven't seen more than 3 inches of snow yet this season.

Gary

Had one inch of snow, lots of sleet and melting snow and having a pretty good snow shower in KV, MO at this time.  That YOU for showing and improving the LRC!  Have a few friends that love/watch the weather and they have start reading this blog!  Thank YOU

Good Morning again weather team!!!

I hope you have a good day!!! Excellent Blog update and analysis as always!!!

Snow winding down here in SW Lawrence-sun trying to peak out but it is blowing pretty good here. I will get another measurement as a final final but guestimate right now is 5 1/2 inches based on the new snow in the drive way. Here in SW Lawrence we caught lightening in a bottle again and got lucky-the LRC is just Tight!!! Will enjoy it because I have a feeling next year the lightening will shatter the bottle LOL!!!

Getting ready to head out and get in it-the decision has been made to build an igloo-you should send a crew to tape this upcomming fiasco-it should be quite the show LOL!! Hopefully will be able to send some pics but my USB ports are having some issues so not sure if my camera will connect to the computer.

Have a great day and as always thanks for all the updates and analysis-all of you put so much time and effort into your forecasts and it always shows!!!!


Bill in Lawrence

Good morning bloggers:  How can I find out the snow total over in Manhattan this morning? I understand KU has canceled classes in Lawrence....

Gary,

Before you think I am blasting you, this is a criticism and a praise, Hear me out!!I made a prediction yesterday around 3pm which made alot of Kansas City snow lovers angry and it was a bit different then your forecast but I ended up being correct. You know the secret I used that helped me? Your LRC... I must admit before I had doubts about some aspects, but today I am convinced something exists, maybe we dont know how to spin it just yet, and need to diagnose it more, but most the storm systems this season have behaved just like this last storm and its crazy. So I ended up using that analogy thinking, I bet once again Salina, Manhattan, Topeka and St.Jo get the heaviest... And incredibly this is how it plays out again!

I'm sort of wondering if you went a little to model happy and didnt rely on your LRC enough here.  FYI I ended up with 4.5" here in Salina with quite a bit of drifts in areas so its a rather uneven snowfall but its very pretty with the sunshine now! It doesn't help matters with predicting these snowstorms that the difference in miles is about 30 and 60 between a lighter 2" amount and 7" or more too.

Jon

Gary & Team,

As I have observed over the years, it is not highly unusual for a large winter storm system to be followed by a smaller one within 48 hours. This observation would fit within your LRC scheme. The system on Thursday looks interesting. Perhaps, we will get a "snowy surprise" with colder air already in place in the wake of today's storm system. Will this arctic outbreak be shallow in the atmosphere as most of the arctic outbreaks here "seem" to be? I always fear an ice storm event setting up later on over a shallow layer of arctic air.

P.S. The sun is trying to come out here in OP.

Bob

Good morning KC, Here I am on the Iowa state line just north of Maryville, Mo.  I am reporting a temp of 20 and we had about 9 inchs of snow. I do have some questions about a totally red sky last night?? I am nowhere near street lights and around 10pm last night after shutting off all the house lights, the entire back yard and sky was a wonderful shade of red. The timber behind the house glowed. It was awsome. Would anyone outside the city have seen this also or was I loosing my marbles......? LOL

More from Elmo Mo. later....
Bill

Maybe you will have time to answer this question for me today. Did you expect most of us to get over 1 inch of rain yesterday...or did that catch you off guard just a bit? By the way...I recieved 1.4 inches of rain and just shy of 1/2 inch of snow. Don't you just hate it when your first forecast was right on and you change it...UGHHHH!!! Oh well...you all are still great in my eyes and still did a good job with it....maybe not perfect, but who is really!!
Monica
Pleasanton KS

Great job guys!!

The LRC is on it- a very wet storm- very similar to the ice storm - thank goodness we did not have a repeat of that.

Will you be doing another 45 day forecast on of these days?

I was shocked that the SPC issued a MD for snow yesterday thinking the same thing you did-- a bullseye of heavy snow through the city! It just went a few miles North!!

87th and Lackman area-- 3.3 inches as of 20 minutes ago..and we still have very light snow.

Have a great day!

Monica, it's in the entry..."The day before we thought we could see around 1/2 inch of rain, but twice that amount fell.  This would be like predicting 5 inches of snow but 12 inches happened.  No one blinked an eye at the rain forecast."

2.5-3" near downtown OP. Side streets are still pretty bad because of the sleet and ice underneath the snow.

We are five miles from KCI and we have 7 inches of snow. How can they have so much less?

I measured a consistant 6 inches in my home in central Lawrence. At my office in west Lawrence, there was around 7 inches.

LRC is a definate! There is something to that for sure. At that point it all seems mute and up in the air. Models are all over the place, one minute the GFS, then the NAM and on it goes. Yes, snow was seen by many, qtys were all over the place, and it is a new day and we must move on.  I think we get snow happy and all of a sudden fiolks are making blizzards out of flurries as we want something to materialize so bad.
So what is the weather going to be on the Fourth of July. haha

RDub...thanks,  I missed that, sorry for bugging you with that question weather team.
Monica

I took 5 measurments. Here in Parkville we have 4 inches on the ground if you want to show that in the blog or on tv. This snow brings Parkville's total to 18.7 inches for the year! You guys nailed the forcast for our area.

Tyler

How can Parkville have 1 inch more snow then KCI when we are 10 miles SOUTH of there?

Gary, even though you made the adjustments yesterday afternoon, you were the most accurate with this storm in my opinion. At least you always tell us what you are seeing and why you are going the way you are with your forecast. That is much appreciated!

Gary,
Great recap of the wild ride! :)  You forgot one day tho...  Mon., Feb. 4th - 67 degrees.  It was definitely part of the wild ride. :)

Kristi

N2mountains: Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain.  High of around 90 (10 degree guarentee).  

I agree with Mark M. 100%.

Great analysis, Jon! :)

Kristi

"We are five miles from KCI and we have 7 inches of snow. How can they have so much less?"

KCI usually records snowfall on the low side based on previous events this winter! Remember that measuring snow is rather hard, especially with the strong winds last night.

"How can Parkville have 1 inch more snow then KCI when we are 10 miles SOUTH of there?"

I think it is crazy as well.
However, snowfall amounts range widely within a small geographical area. I do think the snowfall amount for KCI was low again!

There's 1'' of snow on the ground in Blue Springs. :-| It's still snowing very, very lightly.

4.5" in Shawnee out near Bonner Springs, with higher amounts in drifts. Such a great snowstorm!

Thanks ScottR,

add about 7o% dewpoint and it is a wonderful summer day!

7" at fort leavenworth...not the biggest snow of the season...but it does bring the seasonal total to 33.3".  which is BY FAR the snowiest it has been up here in the past several years.

something to keep in mind everyone...the most impressive snowstorm this season was on december 22nd.  we recieved 9" of snow here due mainly to continuous convection.  now, if the lrc is true, 54 days from december 22nd is Valentines Day.  theres already a storm showing up on the models around that time.  i think that theres a chance that it could be the biggest snow for many this winter.  we will see!

murph

we got about 4.5" in Tonganoxie, still snowing a little and sun is trying to peek out.  Gary you called it right for our area, don't beat yourself up.  I am impressed for them to call school in Lawrence and at KU it has to be pretty bad.  

Not to be too harsh - but this is the second storm in a row that the weather team has missed.  I know it snowed, but there is a huge difference between forecasting 8-10 inches and the results that really happened in Olathe - 2.0 or so.

Serves me right for getting excited - but I think the weather team should take some of the blowback as well.  When you are deemed the experts, your accuracy has to be questioned when the last two major events were not what you forecasted them to be.

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I don't disagree with you.  But, if you look at the entire season we are around 8 for 10 on these storm systems.  And, this one was actually forecast correctly as late yesterday morning.

Gary

pvt_murphy,
Are you surprised that the KCI amount was low again?

Gary,

What do you think that the rest of Feb. will bring us?? How many more snow producers can we expect for the upcoming few weeks?

Nick

"I know it snowed, but there is a huge difference between forecasting 8-10 inches and the results that really happened in Olathe - 2.0 or so. "

Lawrence received between 5-7 inches of snow which shows how difficult forecasting snow amounts can be.

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Exactly!  And, as discussed in the entry today, this did hit us, but not exactly as predicted.

Gary

we had 6.2" of snow here in trenton; drifts up to 16" deep

Had to go out and move my car from 8:00 to 10:15 a thin inch more on the shoveled sidewalks.   So that makes STJ an even 10 inches....little bit of sun poking out now.

Ok the snow has now stopped here at 130th and State Avenue in KCK and final recording of snowfall is 5.0 inches. Wind is still blowing pretty good from the north at 12 MPH, and temp has remained fairly steady at 23.6 degrees. Gary I must say that you almost have me convinced about the LRC. I think 1 more storm and I am going to be dead set on it. Last night, I still feel that you made a good call lowering the amounts of snowfall, but like you said last night...we may be very close to 6 inches or more....And 5 inches is close enough and good enough for me. Don't beat yourself up so much, people will complain no matter what!

Bryan

Good Morning Gary & Weather Team:

Snow total for Stilwell, Kansas Is 1.5 Inches.

Have a safe Day,

Barry

I finally went ventured out to measure the snow.  Still some flurries falling, after averaging the places I measure I have 11 inches of snow in my backyard. I didn't go out to measure the drifts around my jeep, but I would say by the looks there are 1 1/2 foot drifts around it. There is a lot of snow. I will try and send pictures later. I lost interest in shoveling at this moment after measuring it. I'll venture back out later. I'll have to send you a picture of my neighbors car, the snow is up past his bumper. I don't see them going anywhere right now.

I most definatly believe that if you merge the LRC with Kansas City's, other weather great, Dan Henry's ole' Tonganoxie Split you will get it right 95 percent of the time.

I have to ask Gary, did you have a weather man idol growing up?  

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Yes!  I grew up on Los Angeles and Dr. George Fishbeck was my idol.  He was on ABC and was so excited about the weather, but they only gave him less than two minutes to do the weather.

Gary

"Tonganoxie Split."  LOL, Awtherfrd.  a.k.a. "Dome over K.C."???  I thought of Dan Henry and that exact phrase when pondering how the last storm went south and this one went north.

ahhh man this storm will return on my birthday :( maybe a snowstorm in late march.... i doubt it but hey you never know

Haven't been out to measure, but my house in Kingsville look's like about a quarter to maybe a half inch.

snow has stopped and the snow has been coming down hard for a good 30 minutes. The snow is now up to 5 inches in Parkville! This is all that I could ask for!

Drexel got  an inch, which brings us to 5 inches for the year:(

East of Ottawa KS total snowfall, approx 3/4 inch.
Had a weird mixture of sleet and mini soft snow pellets last night that I don't remember seeing before.
Even though it's still February, I'm ready for spring, just not the type they had down south yesterday!

Hiawatha - I would say 10 to 12 inches.  I measured the most level place I could get to in my yard and measured 12 inches.  I've got  15 and 19 inch drifts up close to the house.

I wish the storm had gone further south.  We would sure be glad to share some of this weather this year.  We are still cleaning up from the ice storm in December!

At least the sun has come out but it's still cold at 19 degrees.  I have a feeling this snow is going to stick around for awhile.

I'll try to load some pictures later.  Stay safe everyone!!

I know one reaction is to bang the head against the desk and chant "trust the lrc, trust the lrc."  But I can understand wanting to deviate just slightly as far as tracks.  Would you agree that there is a seasonal drift to weather patterns?  If a storm goes through I-44 in December, it usually has a tendency to move further south as the polar jet reinforces further south.  On the flip side, if a storm rode the colder track in one month, then it could track further north on subsequencial systems depending where the different jet streams were located.  This is just something that came to mind as I was bandaging my head after banging it over and over again for wanting to shift the track further south.  
Let's remember that this is a evolving process in perfecting the LRC and we have a lot of year left to experiment.  I am already charting out the year and figuring out severe weather outbreaks, ideal planting times, and cold snaps.  If this can be trusted on, it will become an invaluable asset for years to come.
From the other side of the state,
BAClair

Gary --

I'm wondering how your thoughts on the LRC are evolving as it relates to 4 to 6 hours before an event and with nowcasting. It's obvious that the LRC is very helpful in long term forecasting-- knowing when a storm will be in the region etc.. But it does seem to be a little unclear on how it impacts surface trends.

For instance On January 31st you feel you blew the forecast. You said, "This storm went farther south, as some of the computer models were screaming at us to see.  And, so we blew the forecast for the first time this season. "

I'm wondering--Did you stick to that storm having a more northern track because of the trends with all of the previous storms that way?

Mike L suggested that about the January 31st storm/forecast when he said,
In retrospect, I thought the NAM did fairly well this time showing the storm setting up around the Kansas - Oklahoma border. Yep, the models were kind of screaming at us that the storm was going south.

Hey Gary, I don't think you blew the forecast, we just all had a bad case of LRC-itis!

Mike"

So I'm wondering if you told yourself after that storm to not get too caught up in the LRC with nowcasting and to also pay attention to the models which led us into what happened yesterday.

You payed attention to the models turning the storm south-- like they did on the Jan. 31st storm and you went with that-- and low and behold the whole thing took a northward spin like most of the storms have! How frustrating!

Also was the Jan. 31st storm the one you said was a bit of a deviation or a flip? If so maybe that's why that storm acted differently. It'll be interesting to see if storms that line up pretty exactly with the LRC act similar--i.e. spinning just north of KC while storms that flip or show a bit of a deviation from the get-go may also show more deviation in their track etc... Or maybe I have no idea what I'm talking about???

Anyway-- just some thoughts . . .

Please correct any of this if I'm wrong . . . I really appreciate you dedication and passion for the weather and for a very amateur weather dork like myself this blog is so awesome!!!

Amber-- in south Raytown

Wow-- 4caster/BAClair I'll be interested to see what Gary says in response to your post there as I just posted in a very amateur way-- something similar . . .

Amber

The sun finally making an appearance up here in Easton, MO.  The drifts in my neighbors driveway goes above the tires on the car.  I measured 10" in the driveway.  Got about 1/2 shoveled, but then figured I am waiting for the plow.  That should produce a significant drift at the end of the driveway.  Looks like I won't be going to work today......Guess I'll take a mental health day

Gary/Jeremy---here is an updated total from Berryton (my house 7.5 inches) and for the year that puts us at 30.7 inches since July 1st.  Not too bad considering the past couple of winters where the storms missed us!  I don't know what Billard Airport's official total is--I am hearing 6.5 to 7.5 inches.  Of course Billlard Airport the official NWS spot is about 12 miles due north of us.  Also the precip before the snow was 1.10 inches of rain.   Take care and keep up your good work.  Michael/Berryton/Topeka

Does next Tuesday look somewhat similar to yesterday? I have a feeling that that might be our last chance of a good snow this year. I really hope we get a snow that will actually cover my grass. Maybe we'll get an arctic blast in March, and then we'll see snow! (Doubt it.)

Winter of 2007-2008= sad:(

so gary, what did he do with the other 1:30 he had left after doing the weather for LA?

After several measurements in a number of sheltered places, I came up with 6.5” of snow 2 miles South of Reno. I was up late watching the radar and noticed a few small but heavier bands of snow moved through extreme southern Leavenworth County last night. The snow depth tapers-off as you move north through the county, and begins to pickup again as you reach Fort Leavenworth.

Northern edge of Smithville, here's what I saw.  There's about a quarter inch of sleet/ice pellets underneath the snow when I shoveled this morning.  I heard that happening between 10-11pm last night.  I took a couple of measurements and had between 5-6"  snow in most spots.  Drifts up to 10".  That was about 7:30-8:00 am.  Since then, it snowed about 1-2" more.  Now it's almost noon and the sun is trying to come out.  Roads were completely covered, couldn't even see the lines on 169 Highway.  It's packed pretty good in some spots, but powdery in others.  I couldn't figure that one out.

I'm curious to see what some of those snow totals would have been if all the rain had been snow.  Clearly we got all the precipitation you predicted, just not in the form we wanted.

Predicting snow is a dangerous task to one's reputation if you ask me. So many variables and in middle America everything has to go right to get a good snow. I blame no one and accept that we live in a part of America where snow forecasting is tough and a very inexact science

Gary, .6 was the total here.

extremely dissapointed...you were the channel forecasting the most for my area...untill 10 last night

A storm is showing up in the 2/14 to 2/15 time period on the 12Z GFS today. It could be another big snow producer for our area. This active part of the pattern is amazing. (LRC continues to cycle!)

Hey everybody - Look it snowed OK.   Some of you didn't get the amount that you had hoped for, oh well..    Let's remember that our friends and family in the southern states suffered a tremendous loss of life last night with the outbreak of severe weather.

Let's also remember that the LRC will have this storm or one like it, back in our area late March...   We could be in for a wilder ride than what we had yesterday...

Good early afternoon to the Weather Team!!!

Hope you are having a good day!!

Final tally here in my little neck of SW Lawrence was 6 inches with some 1 foot drifts. I am both lucky and thankfull for I have had a great morning with my 2 boys in the snow!! I emailed a couple pictures of the igloo experiement-an experiment is exactly what it is LOL!!!

So many thoughts running through my little hobbyist mind about the LRC and this winter but not the time to really put them down so will save them for a later day-of course the way work is right now it may never happen-big sigh of relief from the whole Blogging community LOL-especially considering how spastic my last few blogs have been-snow gets me way too excited!!

Have a great day and as always thanks for providing such a great place to learn and discuss the weather-it has been just fantastic!! Kudos to you Gary, Brett, Jeremy and Jeff!!

Bill yes, I am 6 years old today in Lawrence

wow, what a crazy storm that just happend.  I was hoping for a deformation band of snow to form down here, but that was wishful thinking, I will have a total for you when go home tonight, it looks like about I'm going to guess less than an 1 1/2 of snow here in Warrensburg.  I am already looking forward to some more snow chances later on, and wow what a powerful storm system, it packed quite a punch, especially in those areas that got hit with the tornados. I think you guys did a good job with your forecast, you guys made the adjustments just fine I think, I was disappointed with the little snow acclumation  down here in the southern viewing area,
but we all must keep in mind that you guys are always forecasting events to happen in the future, and until the events are to happen very soon,or are just starting to happen, the forecast will always never bee 100 % perfect.  
The best thing you guys can do is to strive to perfection, and I think that the NBC Action Weather Plus Weather Team are always improving on that goal, and we should be greatfull we have such a passionate and talented weather team.  I think you guys are doing a great job!!!
And another thing, everyone messes up now and then, it is human nature.  
But like I said, I think you guys did a good job,... Me I just want snow in the winter, I can wait for the rain in the spring, LOL. over an inch and a half of rain down here in Clinton, almost close to 2 inches!!! No wonder we are under a Flood Warning.
I hope we get some more chances for snow soon.  

Gary, your southern end of the storm was right on target.  Here in Warrensburg and out at Whiteman AFB, we didn't receive any substantial snowfall until this morning, even then it didn't add up to more than 1/2".  In fact, I was disappointed that there wasn't any real wintery precipitation out this way until this morning.  We received a good dousing of rain yesterday along with a couple of waves of thunderstorms though--not making up for missing out on the snow unfortunately.  Maybe next storm.

ok--it is really frustrating that north of the Metro got all the snow AGAIN.  Please tell me...should we give up hope having a big snow in SJOCO this year?  I must admit that I wanted to throw the remote at the tv during the 10 p.m. forecast when Gary revised his snowfall estimates.  At least I didn't wake up expecting 6 inches!

Congrats guys, the weather is never totally co-operative but I can always count on you guys to stay on top of it and you are 100% more accurate and less hysterical than your counterparts at other channels in KC.

So a question, how is the 20% chance of snow for tomorrow looking now and how much?  Have to work tomorrow around 8am and wondering how this is going to affect my commute.  I live in Independence and will be working in Brookside KC.  Any info would be a huge help.  Thanx

Okay I have a friend in prairie village trying to tell me had almost a foot a snow. Either he doesn't know how to measure or he's measuring drifts.

Baldwin City 3 1/2 inches

next friday looks interesting and for fantasy purposes the 22nd looks interesting wow that would be two fridays in a row..

just watched the 11am update on the site.. so am I correct that tomorrow it's flurries in am and not much else to worry about? sorry to keep asking but I need to take a 2 year old to the Doc's and I want to be safe.

Gary & Team,

Quick question: Did the "double barrel" low center development of this weather system [still obvious on surface maps] affect the rate of intensification of this storm for us in Kansas City as it passed by? It seemed like much of the energy from this system yesterday was in the warm sector of the storm [thunderstorms, tornadoes, etc]. Today, after the storm passed by Kansas City, the primary energy appears to have shifted to the cold sector of the storm and the obvious coma head.

Thanks!

Bob

the 12 hour radar loop is amazing...the snow just dissapeared south of KC...untill the deformation band came through everyone south of kansas city had nothing!

30 miles south Gary...and your forecast would have been right....but one channel was pretty accurate for my area.,...they went with .5 to 3 inches for the KC south area.

As I said, we got .6 inches...and its almost all melted....30 degrees with sun...and that half inch dusting is almost gone...this is the 8th snowstorm this season to have less than an inch!

2.3" by Olathe NOrth HS.

Grading time at my blog.

you are lucky andrew! 2 inches!

I got a half....

4.5 inches at my house in Parkville if you want to put that on the blog or TV.

Snowfall total for the year in Parkville is approaching 20 inches, 19.2 inches!

the north gets it again

Hello from Sedalia.  We got maybe a 1/2 inch of snow this morning on top of some ice.  I just got home from work and roads are just wet here in Pettis Co.  My car says its 29 degress so might want to watch for some slick spots.  It has certainly been a winter to wild weather, I feel like I am on a roller coaster going up and down, up and down.  You gotta love Missouri!

Weather Team,

How much would you agree with this data??  It seems to be about 2-4" higher than what you posted for totals... and this was as of 6 AM this morning, so there would've been additional snow to the southeast.  This shows Lee's Summit in the 2-4" band, when we actually only got a little over an inch.  It has St. Joe in a 12-16" band, but they only reported 10-12".  Your thoughts??

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html?mode=pan&zoom=&center_x=++-96.109&center_y=+++39.045&ql=station&var=ssm_depth&dy=2008&dm=2&dd=6&dh=12&incr=+%2B+&snap=1&o11=1&o9=1&o12=1&o13=1&lbl=m&min_x=-96.125416666658&min_y=37.463334019974&max_x=-92.375416666658&max_y=40.271667353307&coord_x=-94.250416666658&coord_y=38.8675006866405&zbox_n=&zbox_s=&zbox_e=&zbox_w=&metric=0&bgvar=dem&width=600&height=450&nw=600&nh=450&type=0&js=1&uc=0

Ok -- I'm concerned about Spring now. With yesterday's tornado outbreak being one of the deadliest that I can remember in the last few years, and this being only February, this spring is going to be very interesting.

We probably have 1 foot drifts up north. The roads suck up here so be careful.

foodl3, I have been ringing that bell for a few weeks.

Be prepared.

"With yesterday's tornado outbreak being one of the deadliest that I can remember in the last few years, and this being only February, this spring is going to be very interesting."

thats what they said about February,....its not all its cracked up to be here....someone who lives in st jo may see that much differently. decembers storms were much worse than February's so far.

where I live.

We are due a nasty severe weather spring.  Last spring we only had two Severe Thunderstorm Warnings all spring... and neither were really that bad.  Had more severe weather in August than we did in March-May!!

maybe all the severe weather is coming in the winter and all the snow will come in the spring!...and it will be all south....and we won't have a severe weather season...

Last spring we got stuck in that dang Pacific flow... for weeks at a time.  Kept all the good storms way to the south.  

I figure it's unrealistic for much snow to fall on the southern half of the viewing area, considering this return cycle of December's storms is already tracking over the exact same locations to the north.  Darn LRC has taken away all my faith, because there's no more hope when you know what's going to happen.  Regardless, it's apparent that it doesn't even take but a few inches of snow for the KC commute to turn into chaos.  So unfortunately, we not only have to suffer with very little snow, but just enough to make it dangerous to drive.  This is going to suck for a few more weeks.

As for spring, I'm already worried what's in store for us, when it's no longer snow and ice, but tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds.

I wonder when some folks are going to actually look at the BIG PICTURE. The KC Metro area alone covers 5 counties! Things are ALWAYS going to be different from north to south. To say Gary and the team blew it is WAY OFF!


They said all along that the storm was going to take a northern track. Even when Gary moved the band south yesterday afternoon, it still was more on the northern side. In addition, all the storms (except one) have taken either the same or SIMILAR path this winter season. Thus, no one that pays attention at all to KSHB's Weather Team should have been "surprised" or caught "off guard".

Kuddos to Gary and the Weather Team!  Snow is snow....at least most of us got something like you said we would!

I believe according to Gary's map at 6 that we were going to get 3 to 6 inches....we got .6

If I didn't watch at 10.....

I would have thought it was a total bust. ************ Total bust in your eye's Brent. You are tough to please:) Gary's forecast at 10pm drew a line to the south and said areas near or south of the line would see pretty much nothing. Harrisonville was included. Jeremy

I would like to think that based on LRC activity thus far, the southern metro has nothing to worry about in the spring, gee all the action goes north right? It will be our bad  luck coninuing  that it all tracks south in the spring and we get the hail, winds and storms!
Bring on the next LRC I don't like this one!

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This is where your missing a big point.  Do you remember all of the thunderstorms and heavy rain yesterday morning?  This storm hit the southern areas hard, just not the snow part.

Gary

Oh my....I have been watching the coverage of the tornado outbreak....that is so very sad to see. The loss of life with that is just so unreal to me. I feel aweful for those people. I sure hope this is no sign of what spring will have to offer for us. Ughhh!!! We are due for a ugly sever weather season. I have no clue so this is why I am asking.....in Tennessee/Arkansas can you have a basement? Seems all the houses I have seen are on slabs....I did not know if they were to close to the sea to have a basement....not that it would have saved any lives....68 tornadoes in one night is bound to bring a large death toll. I know that sounds like a stupid question but I really do not know.
Monica

Gary, Does the storm Monday-Tuesday look good for snow?

Even though some of us may not have received 6+ inches of snow, we should be thankful for all of the rain that we received yesterday. Better than no moisture at all.

mama...I have a lot of family in Arkansas and none of them have basements.  I've never been able to figure out why.  Seems so strange.

Severe weather season is gonna suck. I bet Olathe will get hit with an F3 Tornado by Olathe North area

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Don't even think that way!  And, the odds are extremely low.

Gary

Monica,

Yes, they can have basements... it's just a lot of those areas are rural areas where you either have really old houses that weren't built on basements, or you have lower income type houses that can't afford them.  I lived in Atlanta suburbs for 9 years.  Plenty of basements there... but there were also a LOT of houses built on slabs.  You get a lot more HOUSE when you put it on a slab (but obviously pay in other ways!!)

Gary & guys,
I think you and your team did fine.  All morning long when it was raining, I was thanking mom nature that it was still on the warm side of freezing!  If that had been ice, today would be a whole different world!   Or, a foot of snow would have thrown my back out for sure trying to shovel!

I do have 2 questions.  The storm last time that spawned the severe weather, and this one yesterday... were they the same storm through the cycle?  

And, is there any way to tell, per the LRC, just when we might start seeing spring warmth and those t-storms start to make an appearance?    

Thanks for all your hard work!
Renee

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Renee,

This severe weather outbreak and the one in January were different storm systems in the cycle, but your other point may come true.  These systems will be repeating during the spring.

Gary

chfs327...why would you say that!?!  That's a horrible thing to say.

"Total bust in your eye's Brent. You are tough to please:) "

no I said it would have been a total bust if Gary had not dramatically reduced his totals for Harrisonville at 10 pm

and no, I am not hard to please, but when someone goes from 2 inches, to 4 to 8 inches to less than an inch in 2 days....and then I end up with .6....wouldn't you be a little dissapointed?...oh wait never mind you hate snow..LOL

you guys fluctuated a lot for the southern zones...

you hit st joseph's totals right on the nose...and everyone else north of the city....but I had a feeling something was going to go wrong, especially when Gary put me in the 3 to 6 inch area.....it was to good to be true.

I believe one station hit this forecast for me...and for a lot of other places.

but they onlt hit it because they go with the lowest totals every storm...this time it just worked in their favor.....

someone called them the underestimating station......well said.

I am not hard to please...I just ask that the channel be within 3 inches of the total amount we will get, 1 day before the snow ends.

Is that too much to ask?

I understand that forecasting snow is hard, and acknowledged that the storm moved farther north...but don't say I am hard to please, because really...it was a big dissapointment for all of us south of the river.

We knew it could happen and it did...the storm shifted further north and took the well defined southern edge of the storm right through KC.

I acknowledge braysmama, kellyann, and addog, that you were all right!

I should have known better than to hope for 3 to 6 inches....I'll trust you all next time ;)

sorry for the long post...just wanted to clear everything up, how I see it 8)

Brent

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Brent,

At least you should know that we are actually thinking of you when the storm approaches, and when they end up a bit farther north then we feel your pain.  We completely understand your frustration.  I haven't seen more than 3 inches of snow at my house either. 

You did hit it on the nose with the fluctuations in the forecasts as the storm approaches for southern areas.  Most of these storm systems have had you on the edge, so if we shift everything a bit farther south, then you are suddenly thrust into excitement and then we pull the rug out from under you and leave you very sad.  We just looked at the satellite replay and I will show it on the air tonight. That spinning disturbance went right through KC at 2 AM.  I can show it on the air.  It is too bad, as most of the overnight snow stayed north of that disturbance. 

Thanks for seeing that other stations supposed better forecast.  When nothing happens then they win.  Bottom line!  They go for nothing almost every single time and this is why we have beaten them on 8 out of the 10 storm systems.

Gary

Gary

We only got a halfn inch last night...The band of snow that came through this morning produced 2 1/2"...That brought the total for Marceline up to 3"...A little dissapointing

WOW, talk about snow covered out there, the snow might have had time to compact a bit when I measured it around noon... but I have about 6 to 7 inches around my place but I can tell it is thick out there what a storm it is absolutely awesome!!!!!!

lol.

This is the 2nd time I predicted 5-8 for KC and it almost happens

1st storm to the south
this storm to the north
the Feb14-15 storm will dump 5-8 inches in Olathe

That is a Guarantee.

Gary and team,

Don't feel bad about the snow forecast.  Your web page had Hillary Clinton winning Missouri's Democratic primary last night, and they get to wait until AFTER the event to present a result.  :)

You guys do an amazing job, and like you said about another station always low-balling the forecast: if we don't get a lot of snow, they look credible.  You guys pore over models and may take a risk with what you predict, and I'll take that any day over consistently downplaying the significance of every storm.

I for one am so glad we didn't get the HUGE snowfall, (I hate snow!)  Over here in SE Kansas City, (Bannister & Blue Ridge) we got maybe 1.5 inches with some sleet/ice mixed in.

So Gary you made me really happy!! My daughter, on the other hand, really wanted a snow day, so she is not too happy.  Oh well, you can't please everybody!

Take care!

WeatherFreak...thanks!! That makes perfect sense to me.  
Monica

I forgot to ask, if anybody knows how much the Belton/Raymore area got (if any) ?

Last night I posted about http://www.wreg.com showing the Hilton Memphis Live Camera capturing the tornado as it was entering town.  Today, if you go to this website, you will be able to see the footage while it was happening last night.  They also are showing lots of aerial footage of damage at Union University and damage elsewhere in the area.  While watching the Union University video, what do you think of the (undamaged) wooden stairs leading to the top floor of the building while the fronts of the buildings have been copletely ripped off?  The footage can be seen at the flash video area of their webpage.  Also, one of their weather people is Austen Onek who used to work in Topeka, Ks. (small world!) and he describes what traffic was like during the outbreak.  If you notice, the camera is capturing a rain wrapped tornado, but the radar on the split screen shows NO orange, red, purple, etc. to signify a tornado.  This is why we must take thunderstorms very seriously as tornados can appear quickly and may already be present.

Great Job Gary.    It has been exciting even though we have not gotten a big storm in the southern metro.     Even though it is not exact or perfect, the LRC has shown its merits this winter.   No way you will ever pinpoint the exact track of a snowstorm that is  banded so thin most of the time,  until the storm starts moving out.    You have warned us of approaching storms months ahead of time and the cold pattern you nailed.    So much easier forecasting cold high pressure than a low pressure track.  

You are still by far the best and those who have known you since you came to KC, know you would never hype a storm for ratings.    You just have the kid in you like us that appreciates a good storm.   Your passion is the difference!!

Thanks again
Joe

Super job with the forecast team! You are the best. Granted I am with Brent and want lots of snow in my area, and a snow day would have been great; I really appreciate having weather people who know what they are talking about both on and off the air. Thank you for responding to our posts and keeping the conversation going. I find meteorology fascinating and I enjoy learning from the people on this post.
Thanks again!

Barbara - I'm originally from Arkansas, and I've always been told that the reason why so many don't have basements is because of the water table is higher.

I have to say that i am not to happy with any of the meteorologists. The people here in K.C., we want a snow storm b/c every time you say we are gonna get hit with like 4-6 inches, I always subtract at least 3 inches b/c thats how much u are off every time! You guys get everyone's hopes up and look what we got...nothing. All the kids out there (like me) I HAD school today and u know what sucks is that i forgot to do my homework b/c u guys said we were gonna get 4-6 inches in Kansas City where i am located and i didn't even get an inch. U get the hopes up for everyone and then it turns out that by the time 10 o'clock news rolls around u change your mind and completely say we aren't gonna get anything. If u are sure or right the first time...do me a favor and don't broadcast it to everyone b/c i am sick of this. U guys have been wrong about pretty much every snow storm we had. U are always off by a ton of inches and u never make up your mind about the storm. It is confusing...and i am sick of it. So thats what i have to say and i am still mad that i had the courage to even come home and turn u on the other day b/c i got my hopes up and we got NOTHING!! I am SICK of this!!

Bad thing for me...my birthday was yesterday and i wanted to get off school and i wanted a big storm. But instead i was MAD and FURIOUS that u guys got the forecast wrong AGAIN!!

 mamaof3girls said:
Oh my....I have been watching the coverage of the tornado outbreak....that is so very sad to see. The loss of life with that is just so unreal to me. I feel aweful for those people. I sure hope this is no sign of what spring will have to offer for us. Ughhh!!! We are due for a ugly sever weather season. I have no clue so this is why I am asking.....in Tennessee/Arkansas can you have a basement? Seems all the houses I have seen are on slabs....I did not know if they were to close to the sea to have a basement....not that it would have saved any lives....68 tornadoes in one night is bound to bring a large death toll. I know that sounds like a stupid question but I really do not know.
Monica

The eastern half of Arkansas is flat and sandy so I doubt they can build houses with basements.  I know in south east AR and NE LA a lot of the houses are built off the ground becuase of flooding.

Gary and weather team,
I have been going through and reanding the commemts posted.  Some of them just make me sick.  I would love to see some of these people do your job and see how hard it really is.  It's almost like they don't understand that you cannot control if somethng changes.  What, do they want you to go outside and blow at the sky and make it go the way they want it to?  I also think it is wrong for people to bring up "the other guys"  just to insult you.  In my opinion, if they are that upset, don't comment on the blog, don't watch your channel and let the people that enjoy seeing you succeed be here and watch you.  
Anyways...keep up the great work!!  I will always watch and support the NBC action news weather team!!!
Becky

Poor Brent-he will not be happy until he get's his ten inch snow.

Anyway, after the .50 inches in Kingsville, our season total at my house is at 7.85. I shouldn't be complaining, we are at least getting some moisture......

Hey Cdorrian,
Gary did not tell you to not do your homework!  It is your responsibility to do that.  You go do his job!!  He did change the forcast at 10 so he did let everyone know.  I knew.  I had my daughter do her homework and go to bed early just in case.  These things are so unpredictable you just never know.  Stop insulting people.  We don't want to see that on this blog.  We like Gary and the team...

Okay u know what. I understand that they dont control the weather, but u cant be wrong EVERYTIME there is a snow storm. Kansas City looks to these meteorologists to tell us about our weather. We arent a small city so what u say counts every time. I dont have a favorite meteroligists b/c every one of them have been wrong. I have to say though that Gary i have never watched your news show before, i always wtach channel 3, 6, or 12. But my mom showed me this blog yesterday and i thought i should say how i felt. U have got to understand that Kansas City is watching his everyday and what to get accurate weather predictions. We never get that when it comes to snow. I want a big snow strorm, i love snow. But everytime they get our hopes up...they are crushed a few hours later.

Okay u know what. I understand that they dont control the weather, but u cant be wrong EVERYTIME there is a snow storm. Kansas City looks to these meteorologists to tell us about our weather. We arent a small city so what u say counts every time. I dont have a favorite meteroligists b/c every one of them have been wrong. I have to say though that Gary i have never watched your news show before, i always wtach channel 3, 6, or 12. But my mom showed me this blog yesterday and i thought i should say how i felt. U have got to understand that Kansas City is watching his everyday and what to get accurate weather predictions. We never get that when it comes to snow. I want a big snow strorm, i love snow. But everytime they get our hopes up...they are crushed a few hours later.

I heard that there is a good chance of another snowstorm next week, any thoughts?

I finally had a chance to measure and we got about 6.0" in Hamilton, MO.  The drifts are ALOT higher.

well i hope maybe we can get some accumulation in south kc. I want a snow storm as a late b-day present.

so are you going to the "other guys" blogs and insulting them too?  Because, according to you, none of them are right so it would only be fair.  Do you know anything about the job they do and how hard it is?  Do you not understand that mother nature controlls all the weather and they have no controll over it?  It is called PREDICTING for a reason.  The "other guys" always go for the low totals to cover their butts.  Gary and the team are trying to give you the reality.  As soon as the forcast changed they let everyone know.  That's wonderful that you want a snow storm but they do not go up in the sky and move the storm just to make people mad.  Do you think insulting people is going to make it better?  If you do...

Gary, just sent pictures I took from St. Joseph. There are two emails with a total of 7 pictures.

I actually ended up with 1.5 inches at my house, more than I thought I got.  

My total for the season is 12.75

i am actually a nice person and i dont insult people. But i am sick of this everytime....i am dont mean to be like this. But i have felt like this for so long.

No more cold snap for this weekend? The see you've adjusted the 7 day temps up quite a bit and 53 for next Wednesday.

So, Lets put that one behind us, Whats next?  I love tracking the possibility..... It doesnt have to be right on, but close.....Keep up the good work and I appreciate the snow we got in East Independence.  Closed the Fort...O

weatherfreak, you going to let Gary know how you feel about him over here or just on the other blog?

Gary,

I've been a storm chaser for over 10 years.  I started chasing with Jim Cantore from The Weather Channel when he and the team would come out this way.  What is the best way to feed you video footage other than bringing it in personally? I'm on a complete digital format by the way.  Can I send it to someone there via my PC?

hey brian
What is the life of a storm chaser like?? I watch t.v. shows on it all the time and it seems soooo cool. What is it really like??

Yes I agree your analysis and your forecast stunk as you said.  Not much more to say than that.  You hyped the situation up beyond belief at the 6 pm news  of 6-10 inches over the whole metro and then had to quickly find a way to backtrack from it later on.

I've learned to expect more from you and your team Gary, evidently this time the best wasn't to be expected.

EXACTLY!!! THANK U BILLY FOR actually AGREEING WITH ME!!

If you are asking me this question and want a serious reply I'll tell you. I just do it for the excitement, one of my many hobbys. I do take it very serious though.  Watching the weather sounds corny and silly to some but watching one of the most awesome natural forces is amazing.  It is beautiful and at the same time dangerous.  However it is very frustrating.  You think not getting 8 inches of snow is frustrating, how about spending 3 hours on the road, filling up for gas, getting your hopes up  and most of the time it's a waste of time. Maybe soem good lighting, beautiful clouds, but now show. It's a very long drive back home for nothing.

Well Gary, we squeaked out 3 inches here in the Northland just N of Vivion and aboutg 1

Or course, I'd love to say I have filmed several, but I have only filmed 4.  You need to know what your doing when chasing storms.  Don't go out and rent Twister, and get in your car and drive. It is more than that.

Cdorrian, they have NOT been wrong every time. When have they been? This blog is a good blog, and the team puts a LOT of passion into their job. Give 'em a break.

wow. I have ALWAYS thought that being a storm chaser (specifically a tornado chaser) is So cool and exciting. But i am NOT the type of person that...loves tornadoes.

I hope my last entry didn't post, I inadvertently hit some button on my computer and was sent flying back to the NBC 41 home page....anyway....Gary, we squeaked out 3 inches at my house in the Northland, thus validating your 10 p.m. forecast.  Your analysis of what went wrong with yesterday's 6 p.m. snow forecast was right on with what I was noticing last night.  That little twist did not turn to the right and so we got dry slotted, although 3 inches is enough snow for now.  Still hoping for "the big one" in KC before winter's end....

"And, this one was actually forecast correctly as late yesterday morning."

Not really, Gary.  If I remember correctly (and I'm probably wrong), your maps on the blog and the website indicated that the Metro was setup for the 6-10 inches of snow, and higher totals as you went north.  That was around 4:45 p.m., when I was getting ready to head home from work.

Not to sound petty or pick a fight - and I know that what you do is next to impossible to do correctly 100% of the time, but when it comes to an error of this magnitude, I feel someone should be held accountable.  It would've been easy to say "it's going to snow" and that's it - but your team was off by nearly half a foot in terms of accumulation in my area.

I'm not saying you unnecessarily hyped the storm - but it feels like to me that your team felt the sky was falling, and your readers were misinformed...intetionally or not.

Ryan

Cdorrian...you should never count on a snow day.  Seriously.  You should always assume you have school.  I made my kids do their homework last night and they had to go to bed at their normal school night time as well, and it turns out they did have a snow day.  You can't blame Gary because you wanted a snow day for your birthday and you didn't get it.  

Rats, that defective message posted.

i love that movie. lol
But i always see t.v. shows about storm chasers and it is soo cool. But i can just imagine how frustrating  it can be.

i am not blaming him...i said over and over again that i am sick of the forecasts never being accurate. I dont watch Gary...well i mean i have once or twice. But i am not blaming him...i hear he is the most accurate out of everyone.

I want to go Storm Chasing, but I want a laptop first w/ Doppler radar.


Gary, will you be showing some of the damage from the tornadoes last night?

Oh by the way,.. I'd like to advise everyone that if you log into this site from another computer, you need to log out of it. Someone earlier this week wes entering comments that did not come from me. Or at least that's how I think it happened. I apploigized to Gary. And I'll extend the same to you. I just thought I would pass this information on to others. I don't know what else could have happened.

Let's put all the negitivity behind us and use this weeks weather pattern as an example for next time. Try not to get so worked up aboutthe weather.

I'm excited about spring. 70 75 degrees, soon the pools will b