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A fast moving disturbance approaches...update

Good Thursday morning bloggers,

An upper level storm is moving into central Kansas this morning, and it will rapidly pass us by mid afternoon.  Once it moves by the sky will clear, but as it approaches we will see some thickening mid and high level clouds.  This disturbance may be strong enough to cause enough rising motion to develop a small band of snow.  Radar echoes have increased, but they are forming east of KC, so it looks like our chance of a snowflake has faded as this moves away.

The mid and long range computer models are fascinating this morning as they are catching onto the LRC.  We will go over the 45 day forecast, that was issued in early January on Friday.  Remember the forecast called for harsh winter with 4 storm systems, and possibly a 5th, 6th, and 7th storm system between January 25th and February 20th.  We have already had our 4 storm systems that the forecast picked out almost perfectly, and the 5th, 6th, and 7th ones could return within the next two weeks.  They are showing up on the latest mid range computer models, in fact the 6z GFS is almost identical to what happened in December.  More on this Friday as we go over how we did on the 45 day forecast, and we look ahead.

Gary

Published Thursday, February 07, 2008 5:57 AM by glezak

Comments

 

Bryan said:

Looking forward to the updates later on this morning. By the way it is currently 19.2 degrees here at 130th and State Avenue.

Bryan
February 7, 2008 6:29 AM
 

Bryan said:

Looking forward to the updates later on this morning. By the way it is currently 19.2 degrees here at 130th and State Avenue.

Bryan
February 7, 2008 6:30 AM
 

sertorius said:

Gary:

Good cold morning to you sir!!! Currently at 15 degrees this morning under thickening clouds. A refreshing morning outside this morning-I know, I know, I have issues!!!! LOL

Well, I had a some stuff typed and ready to send but I hit the wrong button and now it is floating around in cyber space some where!!!!

My point was about how Saturday's cold front aligns with what happened on 12-14-if one looks at the maps both temperature and the 500 ht maps, to this little hobbyist, the similarities are amazing. On 12-14, the core of the cold air headed into the Great Lakes and there was an Upper Level Low in South Eastern Manitoba that was bringing down the cold air-the 6Z GFS this morning has progged a similar solution.

Just a random thought-not sure if I am seeing this correctly but just something I think I noticed. Not even sure if what I typed makes sense as I am really doing this on the fly!!! LOL

Have a great day-I hope you have gotten some rest-what a ride since 1-16!!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

-----------------

Bill,

I believe it is more like December 18th-23rd over the next week.  And it is also very similar to early November.

Gary

February 7, 2008 6:39 AM
 

KSuds said:

I think the thicker snow played a role on the temp in Platte City.  We were at 13 this morning around 5am.  Our main highway is still a sheet of ice.  And man that snow made for some good sledding!

---------------

You are going to make the bloggers in Lee's Summit very jealous.

Gary

February 7, 2008 6:54 AM
 

juniorfan32 said:

13 and balmy in tropical Tonganoxie.  Bill-loved your pics on the news and also Kims pics too.   Wow 11'' , thats just nuts!  wouldn't that be funny if this disturbance today really got cranked up and was nasty?  Glad we don't have a snow day, they are working on our sewer today and we have no toilet!  Hard with a 5 yr old.  

---------------------

This disturbance won't have time to produce much.  But, next week, we will see?

Gary

February 7, 2008 7:21 AM
 

juba said:

Will they come with a heat wave and bring thunderstorms or bring some snow? I want thunderstorms going to snow. We have 3" in olathe with significant drifts of snow, some ice. I almost went off the road to lawrence yesterday morning.

 Byan

------------

Byan,

We had thunderstorms on Tuesday!  We will analyze next week's possible storm systems soon.

Gary

February 7, 2008 7:24 AM
 

chfs327 said:

5-8 inches of snow in olahe for this next storm

---------------

I know the south side is due, but let's don't even get close to being excited about it yet?

Gary

February 7, 2008 7:33 AM
 

reafamily said:

On the drive to work this morning, the skies were beautiful! Reds, oranges and roses over the top of the hills, then the sun just coming over the top! Couldn't have asked for a better start to the day. (ok - more snow on the ground - lol)
Pat
February 7, 2008 8:02 AM
 

nastyweather said:

Gary you said the 6z GFS is identical, so are you buying into that much moisture being available Mon-Wed of next week.  That sure looks like a lot of rain, to ice/sleet, to snow by the end on Wednesday for some of us.  Unfortunately mostly rain.  Everyone should remember the Dec 22nd storm that caused the blizzard like conditions and shut down parts of I-70 and I-29.  Similar repeat next week.......to be continued.

Also, Gary I haven't lost faith in you or the rest of the guys, so keep up the excellent work you do, even if it includes 6 hours of incredible highs and lows.

--------------------

Thanks!  And, I don't want to open up a can of worms, but looking back we hit the snowstorm forecast in almost every way, except for the exact location.  It went into the area we originally thought it would, so we missed it by 30 miles, but it produced the exact amount of snow we thought it would.  Honestly, by being as accurate as we have been we are all expecting our forecasts to be perfect.  This is what we strive for every day, but if we miss it by just a little bit then it is very noticeable.  And, areas to the south and southeast just barely missed it so this is the area of viewers that have the perception of us missing the forecast.

Next week is not identical to the last 10 days of December, but it is directly related to it.  The 06z GFS shows a close match, but it doesn't mean it will end up this way.  Let's see how it looks in another day or two.  Here we go again.

February 7, 2008 8:09 AM
 

4caster said:

No doubts here about the 4-7 systems in the active part of the pattern.  I went through some climitalogical data yesterday and was able to find the subtle, yet recognizable part of this pattern in October.  Right now, it looks like 52-56 days, which can be understandable, but in a forecasting standpoint, I would really like to nail that down.

I had asked this question yesterday early on, but the bloggers may have buried the post, so I will resubmit the question.    

I know one reaction is to bang the head against the desk and chant "trust the lrc, trust the lrc."  But I can understand wanting to deviate just slightly as far as tracks.  Would you agree that there is a seasonal drift to weather patterns?  If a storm goes through I-44 in December, it usually has a tendency to move further south as the polar jet reinforces further south.  On the flip side, if a storm rode the colder track in one month, then it could track further north on subsequencial systems depending where the different jet streams were located.  This is just something that came to mind as I was bandaging my head after banging it over and over again for wanting to shift the track further south.  

Let's remember that this is a evolving process in perfecting the LRC and we have a lot of year left to experiment.  I am already charting out the year and figuring out severe weather outbreaks, ideal planting times, and cold snaps.  If this can be trusted on, it will become an invaluable asset for years to come.  

Right now, I have penciled in a few severe weather outbreaks:
Feb 28th-Mar 3rd (52 to 56 days from Jan 7th)
Mar 28th - Apr 1st (52 to 56 days from Feb 5th)

After these first two cycles, the forecast gets tougher, depending on how many dates you use in the cycle (the range expands to a week; not a good prediction.)  But, the 22nd through the 28th of April is where the dates line up for the Jan 7th outbreak and the 21st through the 27th of May for the Feb 5th outbreak (Memorial Day - hint, hint!!)

Let's see if we can narrow down these dates and firm up the ranges.  Can you imagine if we could give a month advance warning for possible severe weather outbreaks?  Emergency managers, Forecast Meteorologists, and of course, Storm Chasers would love this insight to prepare (schedules, days off, extra staff, etc.)

Till next time, from the other side of the state,
BAClair

---------------

BAClair,

These are all great thoughts this morning, and yes I missed it in the last blog. Sometimes the comments get buried in there, emails too.  So, it is always good to try again and ask for a response.

I am in close agreement with your 52 to 56 days, but it is still not perfect.  We haven't wavered from thinking it is around 54 days overall.  There could be some parts of the pattern that seem 45 to 50 days apart and others that seem more like 56 to 58 days.  So, taking a storm and projecting exactly 54 days or close to it has been working, but there are some other factors that you must try to look at.  As you discussed, the jet stream strength and position will be different in January than it was in October, November, or any other month. So, you have to take the pattern and try to envision what it will look like with a stronger or weaker jet stream.  Sometimes the pattern will become a split pattern, and even though it is still cycling, this can really throw the surface positions of these storm systems way off from the last time through the cycle.  And, as we move into March, April, and May, the jet stream begins weakening and what was a very progressive flow may start slowing down a bit and storms will act a bit differently, even though the pattern continues to cycle on schedule.  We may get one of these bigger systems to close off to our west a bit more later in the season for example.  And, remember, a very strong part, perhaps the most important part of the LRC is the position of the "long term" longwave troughs and ridges.  Many storm systems look similar to each other throughout the entire weather pattern.  This is why it could be a wild spring (I have not made any predictions yet).  But, I have thought certain patterns would create wild severe weather seasons, and I have been wrong.  This one has a lot of potential and this is something we are going to work on very soon as I may be issuing another 45 day forecast within a week.

On your specific dates, I hope you are wrong about the first one.  I am supposed to visit Jamie Jarosik in Ohio the last weekend of this month.  Maybe that storm will come in around March 3rd as I will be back by then.  Keep this thinking up!  It has been working and the LRC is showing a lot of potential for long range forecasting.  I will be having a look back at how we did blog, on the 45 day forecast we issued, sometime tomorrow.

Gary

February 7, 2008 8:36 AM
 

marlina10 said:

Can the LRC be used to estimate the dates the upcoming storms might fall on/around?

----------------

The answer to this is yes!  But, it isn't just black and white, clear cut, for sure on a certain date.  This doesn't mean we can't come within one or two days at times, even 30 to 60 days out.  We are experimenting right now.

Gary

February 7, 2008 8:45 AM
 

bewild79 said:

4Caster,
Man, you just had to put Feb. 28th in there huh?  That's my birthday!  LOL :):)
February 7, 2008 8:58 AM
 

nastyweather said:

I know people have been mentioning they believe it's going to be a very active spring for thunderstorms and tornadoes, but what about flooding?  Looking at how much rain we've received from October through now, we're already 2" over the average for those  4 months and that's including a very, very dry month of November.  October and December alone we're 4.4" over the norm.  Already by Feb 6th we've reached the average precip for this month, with even more storms in the pipeline according to the LRC.  Flooding could be a real problem this spring on into summer, because it's so widespread, unlike thunderstorms and tornadoes.  I know areas to our south were devastated last year by flooding, I sure hope we don't have a repeat this year.

------------------

The flooding event down south last year was a ridiculous amount of rain of nearly 20 inches over a short period of time.  This year we see consistent rain, but will it be enough for flooding.  I would say an above average chance.

Gary

February 7, 2008 9:11 AM
 

stjoeattorney said:

Gary, nex mon-wed is the 22 Dec set up there were good amounts of precip. My question is I have had 40.8 inches officially 29 inches toss in another big one and this like 77-78 and 80-81 and 81-82.  I do not remember 59-60 I was born in 1959.  

After you analyze 1 Jan to present do you think you can issue an outlook for 15 Feb to 1 April??  

-------------

We are really just a bit over halfway through with the snow season.

Gary

February 7, 2008 9:14 AM
 

Scott said:

Oh boy..I am going to have fun with this banter.  I will be back after getting some thoughts together..

;-)
February 7, 2008 9:17 AM
 

sertorius said:

Gary:

Good mid morning to you!!! Quick observation: We have really warmed up nicely this morning as we are already close to 30 degrees-always amazes me how quickly we can respond to a southerly flow.

Thanks so much for the feed back!! Since my youngest is home today-(must have kept him outside too much yesterday or for the MU and KSU folks it must have been the KU hat he was wearing LOL!!!!) I am trying to rework my score card now!! Should be interesting huh???!!! I should be getting ready for my parent/teacher conferences that begin this afternoon but well, you know-its still winter so....

Have a great day!!!

Bill in Lawrence
February 7, 2008 9:20 AM
 

chfs327 said:

the feb 14-15 looks alot like the dec. 22nd storm. This one hopefully brings us 5-8 inches of snow. Im looking forward to this day
February 7, 2008 9:22 AM
 

Nick Rau said:

a lot of hours lately at work, oh well it's money;)
I did take some pics of the snow in my neighborhood, I just want to ask what is the best address I should send it to? It has been a while since I emailed you guys. THANKS
This morning is awesome, a thick blanket of snow, more than I think I have ever seen from one snow storm, and the trees are covered in frost from sort of an ice fog from earlier absolutely amazing. So it looks like the arctic air is not going to be quite as intense for this weekend, oh well with about 7-10 inches of snow it will keep us cool for a bit I would presume. Again though I do feel for those you got the violent side of that storm an unreal event for Feb.

-----------------

Nick,

Send them to me at Lezak@NBCActionnews.com

Gary

February 7, 2008 9:34 AM
 

daveg616 said:

Gary,
Good morning from Reno. The Sierra's are so white it looks looks like a big ball of cotton. I'm here for a trade show, however had time to drive up to South Lake Tahoe. The drive up Mt. Rose Rd was unbelievable. The snow along the road in some places is at least 30ft high (plowing). Took the tram up to Heavenly. They have a 160" base. I'm hoping when I get back to KC and can bring some of this snow back with me.
Dave

----------------

Dave,

That drive over Mr. Rose highway is just one of the best drives I have ever been on.  Decending down into the Lake Tahoe basin from 9,000 feet is just "heavenly".  I haven't been up in the Heavenly Valley tram yet.

Gary

February 7, 2008 9:37 AM
 

Scott said:

Gary - Far more powerful than the LRC is when you are out of town.  Count on a big storm anytime you leave.  But - maybe you get lucky this time.  While I see the potential in the 28-3rd due to the temp flux, I am not seeing a constant trend of ready precip.  I wonder if convection can be initiated.

I won't go into too much on the cycle here.  Gosh knows I have written ad nausium on my blog on this stuff even with detailed forecasts posted from mid January...so I will leave it there.

I will be very interested to see the 45 day analysis.  I am curious as how it can be specfically verified opposed to verifying trends.  All this said, you know I support the cycle, but want to see how you this analysis.

Anyway..probably tamer than this should have been, but there has been enough pot stirring lately.

;-)

------------

Scott,

LOL.......I am relieved.  Yeah, wait until tomorrow. 

Gary

February 7, 2008 9:48 AM
 

Sadie said:

Gary, just curious to know how far back you've gone with the LRC analysis?
February 7, 2008 10:02 AM
 

jimmymac said:

Gary, was this week's storm more closely related to the Dec. 11 ice storm or the Dec. 15 snowstorm?  I'm having trouble finding both of them in this cycle.  Thanks.
February 7, 2008 10:16 AM
 

Virginia said:

Gary,
Don't worry...Ksuds is not making some of us Lee' Summiters sad.  I personally don't care for snow...Okay I HATE snow...but I know many of you here LOVE it and I would hate to see your joy gone.  My only saving grace yesterday was it was enough to close some schools making it so I did not have to go to class or attend work. LOL.

As for future, and I know it is hard to tell.  But Feb. 16th, please tell me NO SNOW...I have concert tickets and my parents are driving in to go as well and I would like to know we will have a nice safe weekend.  So that is what I am praying for.  Have a great day...the weekend is almost here..WHOOHOO!!!
February 7, 2008 10:16 AM
 

boootz said:

I just had to do this,I flew out of KC last night to beautiful  Long Beach Calif where it is a balmy 69 degrees and sunny. This is the kind of snow I like, watch it fall, walk through it, get in a plane and fly away from it. If it tells us anything, we flew south of N Platte, Ne, down over Colorado, across NM and North of the Grand Canyon into LAX and at 35,000 feet the turbulence was horrible  
February 7, 2008 10:17 AM
 

MikeTrainor1 said:

gary... please be sure to give Jamie our best when you visit! tell her to stop by on the blog now and then! - mt
February 7, 2008 10:28 AM
 

Northlander said:

Gary - Now that the excitement of the most recent storm has passed, I have two LRC questions that I have been very curious about for a long time.  I have been watching both the Weather Teams’ interpretation of the LRC and other bloggers, “Scotts”, analysis of the LRC for quite some time.

It is my belief that the LRC is a real phenomenon, presently though it is only a hypothesis.  I also believe that the LRC is a symptom of a currently unknown atmospheric/Oceanic process.

If a patient has a fever, congestion, and muscle aches then there are many possibilities of what might be causing these symptoms.  A cold, influenza, or other serious diseases are all possible candidates for the cause of the patient’s symptoms.  The most important thing to do is find the cause of the symptoms.  You can study the symptoms, but they will not always tell you exactly what is causing them.

If you wish to present the LRC to the scientific community in a published work, will you not have to have data supporting what causes the development of the LRC?   They would also be expecting a great deal of data, IE number crunching.  To be independently verified a sample size of 30-40 of the world major cities/areas, for a time of 5-7 years, must be gathered and graphed to prove the LRC existence.  This would be enough to postulate that the LRC is real global phenomenon.

The scientific community at large is very skeptical of any new ideas.  To present a convincing argument finding the cause of the LRC is crucial.  

I have published three papers and as my college professor told me before I sent out my first paper, I quote, “The burden of proof is on you …. Never forget the basics of science because your peers will not.”

My two Questions are:

Will global LRC data be compiled and published?

Do you have a hypothesis about the cause of the LRC?

Thank You

Northlander
February 7, 2008 10:55 AM
 

outwest said:

Gary,

I know you have your hands full tracking the weather patterns for your area, but I thought I'd ask: I'm north of Denver on the front range, and interesting enough it has been consistently cold here but we really have missed most of the snow since late December.  Why is this, and what do you think are the chances of this area getting a good snow or two in the next 6-8 weeks?  Many times what hits us, also hits KC in a day or so...

Thanks

-----------------

Yes, I see some real good chances for your area in the next few weeks.  I will have to look at it closer later on.

Gary

February 7, 2008 11:02 AM
 

bewild79 said:

Gary,
I know this is a little early to ask, but I was up here visiting in May 2003, of course before I moved back, anyway, I was uncomfortably close to getting hit by one of the tornados in that horrible outbreak.  How much of a chance is there for that kind of an outbreak this year?  All I know is that even though I got lucky and it missed us by 1/2 a mile, it was the scariest day of my life.  I will never forget being 5 months pregnant and hiding under the stairs praying that it would miss us.  Luckily it did.  I had stood outside and heard that very scary "freight train" sound and thoght, "this is it."  I just want to be prepared for what is to come...

----------------------

There is always a chance, but there is a much better chance that you will never be that close to another tornado again in your life.  So, let's think positively.  There will be chances this spring, but the tornado threats will depend on each individual set up.  We will get you prepared if there is any risk at all.

Gary

February 7, 2008 11:14 AM
 

brain2biceps said:

Take a look at part of this forecast discussion issued by the National Weather Service in Davenport, Iowa (where more than 12 inches of snow fell with this week's storm):

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 PM CST WED FEB 6 2008    

(skip)

MORE VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM ON LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR SET TO   DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT WITH CHC   OF SN. ARCTIC FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SAT WITH TEMPS FALLING   DURING DAY SAT AFT FRONTAL PASSAGE. H85 TEMPS IN RANGE OF -20 TO -25C   12Z SUN TO RESULT IN SUBZERO LOWS MOST AREAS.

MON-WED...AREA REMAINS IN THE CROSS-HAIRS WITH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW  BRINGING SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND MAIN JET AND BAROCLINIC ZONE  NEAR TO SOUTH OF AREA. THUS...CONTINUED UNSETTLED/ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL  FOR AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BY AROUND MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WE ESSENTIALLY RECYCLE THIS INCREDIBLE WINTER WX PATTERN.    

Recycling a weather pattern?  What a concept!!

Full discussion here:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KDVN/0802062135.fxus63.html
February 7, 2008 12:00 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

OH my bewild79.  I remember that day very well as well.  We were at my sisters celebrating my dad's birthday.  Sad to say it was his very last one.  I'm just glad they left and went home as early as they did, they live close to 635 so were out of the dangerous path.  My hubby, kids n I stuck around long enough to hear the first sirens go off, sounded south.. so we headed for the weather radio.  At that time it was in Bonner Springs.  Told hubby we need to split NOW.  so we snatched up our 2 boys, and I was pregnant at the time as well.  we headed home and flipped on tv, and headed to the basement.  We're near walmart so we didnt' have as close of a call as you did, but I remember being so very scared.

The thing that surprised me the most about the whole path of it, was that it didnt damage any part of Wyandotte County Lake.
February 7, 2008 12:01 PM
 

bewild79 said:

5kckmartins,
yea obviously you can relate.  It was definatly a day I will never forget.  I didn't have the comfort of my husband.  I was up here visiting from Louisiana.  My parents were even a couple hours away at a meeting that day.  I am just deathly afraid of tornados..that one was the most recent.  I have had other close calls since I have lived up here for 23 years.  Hopefully I won't have those scares this year.  I probably will though, knowing my luck.
February 7, 2008 12:20 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

bewild,
yours n mine both.  After the other night, I'm terrified of what this spring is going to bring.  But guess we'll have to wait and see, and hope those nasty things stay far away from here.
February 7, 2008 12:34 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Just found out that my Mom is going to have the baby today!!

---------------

Andrew,

Good luck with everything!

Gary

February 7, 2008 12:42 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Congrats Andrew!!! 8)8)8)
February 7, 2008 12:51 PM
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