Good afternoon bloggers,
A lot of you have some great ideas, comments, and you add a lot to the NBC Action Weather Blog. We are going to start something today that will be exciting and a great way for you to participate in a different way. NBC Action Weather bloggers that are interested should email me and we will give you a chance to be part of this idea. You will have the opportunity to write your own blog entry, not just a comment, and add your thoughts and ideas that we post as one of our entries. We may do this once a month, or at times when the weather calms down. Since the chance of snow is gone for today, I decided why not start today, especially since one of our favorite bloggers wrote me this excellent entry. So, here we go as we start today. And, no Bill we don't think you crossed the line at all!
Blog entry from Bill Gollier in Lawrence, KS February 7, 2008
I’m going to throw out a few things that probably cross the line somewhat but after reading the Blog yesterday I decided what the hey-so here it goes:
- The Topeka/Kansas City corridor weather history over the past 100 years is strewn with snow falls gone awry. I really wasn’t kidding when I said I was going to write a book called “Missed it By That Much: The Trials and Tribulations of a Snow Lover in Kansas City”. I grew up in Kansas City and then lived in Brookside for 7 years before moving to Lawrence-the missed snows are in the 100s. I remember several times as a kid and teenager thinking I was going to get out of school based on current trends only to awaken to partly cloudy skies and flurries-that includes the snow utopian 70’s and early 80’s. I’ll just throw out a couple: January 1979: Looked like 8-10”-got cloudy skies and wind; December 1982: Looked like 12 inches -got rain and ½ an inch; February 1983: Looked like 10 inches-got 1 inch that melted the next morning; March 1989: Looked like 12 inches-got flurries and partly cloudy skies; January 1999: Looked like a possible Blizzard -got 3 inches of sleet. These are just off the top of my head from when I was growing up in Kansas City. My point with this is that the past 2 possible snow dumps that went awry are nothing new for this area. There have always been and always will be several storms a year that split the viewing area or miss it all together.
- Yes, I fully realize and have been incredibly thankful as a snow lover that Lawrence has benefited from this year’s LRC. However, before anyone begins to think of Lawrence as some snow utopia I will just say that Lawrence averages less snow than Kansas City and 9 times out of 10 is the one missing the bigger amounts. The most recent example is November 2006 when Baldwin received 9 inches and Lawrence got 20 flakes-that is like KCI getting 9 inches and Briar Cliff getting 20 flakes. Or in 1994 when most of the east side of KC got 5-8 inches and Lawrence did not see a flake.
- The other thing to consider is the predominant storm tracks/LRC the past 2 years. Last year “the Storm” was almost always a “Texas Hooker” which is a horrible track for areas North and West of the metro. This year the track has been to Joplin and then hook North East which is not very conducive for areas South and East as the cold air has trouble becoming established in those areas with that particular track. What we have lacked and really have since 1992-1993 is the classic 4 corners low that tracks right across the Kansas Oklahoma Border over Joplin or Nevada with cold air already in place and does not make the turn until it gets to Springfield or Rolla, Missouri. That is the track that blankets the whole area with decent swaths of snow. If that track had been in place in either of the past two winters, 2006-2007 and 2007-2008 would have gone down in history as winters comparable to 1992-1993 and even the late 70’s. Unfortunately, we have had storm tracks that are conducive to splitting the viewing area.
- In reality, the snow lovers who should be the most disappointed are those who live between KCI and the Broadway Bridge-when is the last time KCI had a snowfall greater than 4 inches-December 2005?? At least some areas in South KC and points even further south had some good snows last year.
- The LRC: The argument circulating around weather message boards etc. that this month is warm and mild due to La Nina or Pacific Flow is just all wet. The LRC told us that these past two storms would be here and this one would be very wet-well, they both were here and this one was extremely wet. Again, if either of these storms had tracked 50 miles different this area would of received close to 20 or maybe even 25 inches of snow in 5 days-that is unbelievable. The key though is that the LRC told us the storms would be there and even gave clues as to how they would pan out. If the Pacific flow and La Nina are so prevalent right now, why did we even have a chance of having 20 inches or more in 5 days-if the Pacific is in control right now, we should be warm, mild and mostly zonal. The LRC said the storms would be there and they were.
- Given number 5: The LRC, for all its amazement, is not a perfect synoptic guide-for sure many of the parameters will be there along with each event, but exact tracks etc. have to be fine tuned as the event approaches. Thus, on last Tuesday the team knew the storm was coming and knew it would be a wet one-they also know where the long wave trough and have an idea where it should go. However, this is the time when synoptic meteorology comes into play-based on what they saw Tuesday afternoon and knowing how wet this storm was going to be, they went for it-one has to respect that!!! Of course, given the points above, this is Kansas City and it split the Metro-but, the storm was there and it produced. A true missed forecast to me is if the storm never materializes or misses the entire viewing area-this one did not-it was missed by 40 miles. I mean come on anybody from OP driving to a KU basketball game which is done 2-3 nights a week would have driven right into a decent winter storm at about Eudora.
I know this is extremely long, but these are just some random thoughts. My main thrust here is that the LRC has shown the way again this year. The storms were there just as the LRC said they would be. The whole viewing area could just as easily have received 20-25 inches of snow the past 5 days instead of what happened but things just did not track exactly right-this had nothing to do with Pacific Flow, La Nina, the AO, the EPO, or the PNA-it was all about the LRC and the fact that both storms tracked about 40-100 miles in the wrong direction.
Bill Gollier
The above entry is entirely from Bill Gollier. If you have any comments or ideas let us know. Bill can read them and get back to the blog later today after he gets home from work. I have never met Bill, but he has been a great contributer to our blog for years now. Thanks Bill for your thoughts today. If anyone else is interested in doing a blog entry, just email me at Lezak@NBCActionNews.com.
Have a great day everyone!
Gary