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Do you think there is any chance of having significant accumulations around the viewing area??...Do you have an idea where this storm may track??

how is this storm shaping up?? what are thr models sayin thus far?

That ice does not sound fun.   Lets hope it is all snow or rain!!  

Great Job with the blog today Gary.  Very informative and helps us understand the cycle even more.   You have alot of work to prove, but you sure seem to enjoy making believers.  

Good Luck

Gary I was just taking a look at the latest NAM and GFS, it shows .25-.50 precip SE of KC. If this will be freezing rain, that could be a problem.. Hopefully it will be either rain or snow.

I hope it is rain or snow..  No ice please.

Kristi

I told U guys like a while now. Its A MAJOR ICE STORM. NO 1 EVER LISTENS TO ME AND I AM ALWAYS RIGHT. 1/2 INCH TO .75 INCH OF ICE WILL FALL.

I will put 20 dollars on this line if Andrew or anyone else wants to make a bet. Even if Gary bets I will make the call of a 12 pack of his favorite soda and deliever it myself

Bottom Line. Major icestorm

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We will see how this trends.  The storm comes in positively tilted.  We will see.

Gary

Please no ice I don't want to deal with that again Let's hope for snow or rain!!!!!!

lol chfs is dead serious.... Are you betting on a major ice storm for which area? You know how every thing is split.

I personaly want a good glazing of ice wth several inches of snow on top topped off with another galzing of ice so i can get out of school early on Monday and miss school on Tuesday...Hey Gary, you should see if you can visit Marceline High School sometime soon and give a presentation of the LRC or something...That would be really cool...I think it would also be awesome to meet you.

I don't bet! I would root for Ice,but with my new baby sister, No Ice Please.

Great job on the blog, as always Gary..... Ice is a bad deal, but with the shallow artic airmass in place, it is quite possible.
We will have to wait and see just how this airmass sets up. How shallow, strong, and if it gets shunted off .

I certainly hope for snow or a cold rain then that dang ice...

Is it just me, or does this seem like it has been a very long winter?  

Keri

It Seems like ive been right about callin it a few days out. Last two storms I predicted 5-8 and at the 24 hour mark it stood at 5-8 inches for the Olathe Area

Both storms went north and west or south. Now It will hit us with a big ice storm. I always make good predictions. So I call for a Major Icestorm in KC

Twister. You say that Im serious. You sir are Correct.

Wanna bet

Remember. I Randomly say stuff and they become true.

Im only 15 years old yet I know how to randomly say something and it 2 become true.

Gary. I like the tie

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Thanks!  It is one I very rarely wear!  I am going to sleep.  Jeremy will get you updated in the morning.

Gary

Gary,
Really enjoyed all the great info today.  Curious about this coming week.  If you had to call this from just the LRC (without peeking at the models) how would you forecast it?  I know the models give much more insight, I'm just curious what it would be without using them.
Congrats on the new sister Andrew, that is so exciting!  

chfs, nah, no thanks. We will just see who is right on tuesday. Didnt you say there would be 5-8 inches of snow in KC from the last storm that went by?

Gay. I didnt even know you were wearing a Tie. I didnt watch the weather 2day. Oh well. You pretty much should wear that tie often. Most people are jelious of that Tie. You also wore that same tie during the Icestorm that Hit St.Joe earlier this year

Twister. I have called 5-8 on both of the past two storms. Like I said Both didnt quite make us. 1 went to south 1 went to the North and west. Both were issued by the NWS the day before for the same 5-8 inch deal.

Remember im 15 years old. That I have the Quality of randomly Pointing out Icestorms its pretty amazing

  chfs327 said:
Remember. I Randomly say stuff and they become true.

Hey chfs,
I need you to randomly say it will be 70 and sunny!  

Remember. I Randomly say stuff and they become true.

I just said this 5 minutes ago and yet no 1 expected me to complement on his tie. I didnt even know he freakin wore a tie. Coquensidence. Maybe but to be right about intenstiy wise for the past 3 storm.

IceStorm approaching. I would Like to make a Bet with Gary. If we get the Icestorm I would Like to be mentioned in a Newscast during your forecast. You make what you want me 2 do if you win. Ill accept anything. Including me running across the town with no t-shirt on when the next artic front comes friday morning

MCI. It wont get into the 70s untill 24th of Febuary

chfs327 ... i am laughing out loud ...

You deny my magicalness. Oh well. If you dislike me Thats fine. But facts are facts. Theres gonna be a Major Icestorm. thats the bottom line

Gary and your team,
I do not blog every day, but i read and follow everything that is going on. I have studdied the weather since i was a kid. Now i am in my early 40s. Gary i go back to the Dan Henry and Fred Broski days. Back when i watched Dan Henry litterely throw the sun and rain symbols on the board. How times have changed. I know now that your theory is very accurate. You are so right about these patterns cycleling. This year you seem to notice it more Probably due to it beeing so active. If it was a dry warm persistant cycle no one would have paid so much attention to it. That is the cycle we have seen so much in the past years. I now have followed you since you have been on the air. I defend you and your team and back your theory non stop. People are hard to persuade at times. I feel when someone does a good job at what they do they need to hear it over all of the negative comments. So you all keep up the great work. Lets look into these potential storms this week. Even though i love winter and snow i would rather not see an icestorm. I know i am a little behind but i finished the last storm with .90 from the rain and thunderstorms and about 5" of snow here at 68th and leavenworth rd in Kck. When you think back to the october surprise it seemed very simular with the heavy rain and thunderstorms then the 8" of snow?

-Rodney

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Rodney,

Thanks and we really appreciate input.  We both know the LRC not only exists, but it is helping tremendously in our long range forecasting.  Kansas City, KS got into the southeastern part of the persistent snow band from this last storm.  Now that it is three days ago, I can look back and realize our forecast was almost perfect.  It was 30 miles off, but everything happened the way I though it would. The biggest problem for us is that a good 30% of our viewers were in the area that just barely got missed, so they believe we blew the forecast.  Man, I hate that.

Have a great weekend.

Gary

chfs,
If it is 70 or above on FEB 24, I need you to randomly say I will win the lottery... :)

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I'm with you guys...bring on the 70s:)

Jeremy

if you win the lottery.. please remember who your fav. bloggers are.. :)

Jeremy:

Good sorta chilly morning to you!!! Currently sitting at 28 degrees under clear skies-the sun did a bit of a number on the snow pack yesterday afternoon with the biggest casuality being the igloo-the roof collapsed on it yesterday!!! Still do have snow covering most of the ground but I bet we loose quite a bit more today before the colder air works its way in here.

A few random obervations this morning that I hope as always make some sense!!!

1. Looking at the 11Z surface charts this morning it appears (I think) we have a bit of a chinook wind developing out ahead of the colder air so we should warm up pretty quickly today if clouds stay out.

2.  However, the 11Z surface charts also show that the colder air push is almost through South Dakota-some really cold air up there this morning for this time of the year!! It will be interesting following this cold air push. Based on the surface data at 11Z it appears the core is going to slide off to the east, but it is also looks like some it is trying to bank up against the Rockies. How strong of a cold push will we actually get?? Will be interesting to follow for sure!!

3. Regarding Monday: Ok going out on a huge limb here/way beyond where I should go and most likely going to make myself look foolish-crack-ahh...I think the 0Z Euro had a better handle on the Monday storm than the 0Z GFS-it appears that the 0Z GFS wants to bring in a warm front which if I am looking at things correctly is not part of this storm based on 12-20 and 10-29. The Euro also seems to want to dig this a bit further to the west and thus a bit more stronger storm-it is not closed off on the Euro and I think it is still positivly tilted but it dug a bit back to the west. Based on what happened with this on 12-20 and 10-29 the Euro makes a bit more sense to me than did the 0z GFS. Does this make any sense?? That loud noise you here is the limb cracking underneath me LOL!! Whatever the case, Monday is going to be an interesting day!!!

4. Speaking of the second arctic front: right on schedule-if one looks back at 11-6 and then 12-28 you can see a second push of cold air after this one today. Remeber in December it was not untill the 28th that we had our first true taste of arctic air with highs in the teens around New Years. Of course after that on 1-3, we blow torched so by 2-18 or so, we should really warm up!!!

Have a great day-time to watch the surface charts-will be fun to track!!!! Once again another event to watch unfold-man this winter has been fantastic (if you are wied like me and love winter LOL!!!!) Have a great weekend Jeremy!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Good to hear from you.  Nice blog the other day!  A fast changing weather pattern this weekend and also heading into Monday.  I think the next two storms are finally starting to take shape a little more like they appeared the first time around.

I'm ready for that second half of the month warm-up!  Hopefully it comes back.

Jeremy

Jeremy:

Thanks so much!!!! Even a broken clock can have a decent thought twice a day LOL!!!

One other random thought: One thing that I have been keeping in the back of my mind is climatology. Lawrence's average high today is 44 degrees-even if you want to take out the last 10-15 years, our average high is still 42 or so-the fact is, we are way above freezing on average and  are gaining almost a degree every 2 days now so the colder air 9 out of 10 times will not have the bite it did in mid January. Yes, it can get incredibly cold in February (think 1989) but it is hard for it to stick here for more than 48 hours based on the time of year we are in-arctic air really doesn't want to be locked in here this time of year-it wants to go back home to the North where it is more comfortable!!!

In the end, the amazing thing to me is that it is all there just as the LRC said it would be-if one was to believe weather message boards and national media we should be in the 50's with a ripping Pacific Jet and storms just whizzing by-they sure in the world should not have cold air nor should they dig at all-but wow-there is cold air and storms are digging!!!!


Just another random thought!!!!

Have a great day Jeremy!!! Interesting times ahead again!!! How long will today's  cold air stick? Will the precip. get here in time? Will national weather message boards still be screaming Pacific Jet, Pacific Jet??  Watch Monday on as The Winter of 2007-2008 Turns!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

2 storms look very possible next week.  Monday's and then Thursday.  Should be a fun week once again.  It will be tough to push the arctic air out of there before the precip. arrives on Monday.  That is why we have to watch this close for freezing drizzle/rain and then a mix.

Jeremy

"chfs327 said:
You deny my magicalness. Oh well. If you dislike me Thats fine."

Just to clarify, chfs327, I wasn't saying I dislike you. You were just cracking me up with the way you were saying stuff! Looks like you might be right, too!

So, how many games will the Royals win this year?

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Probably more than the Twins:(  Might be a rough year for my boys.

Jeremy