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Thanks. Now I say Bring on the Ice Storm Baby Ha ha

i hope the next blog update is more informative than the last two cause they suck

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We aim to please, but can't please everyone I guess.

Jeremy

Cold front just came through Oskaloosa. I however, live in Baldwin and it's still balmy!

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The cloud line signifies the frontal passage...at least it did here in KC along with the shift to a north wind.

Jeremy

I like the 7 day right now!!!! I lived here in desoto for 8 years now.This is a fun wild ride we have been on as far as a winter goes. Let the roller coaster ride continue.  Down we go! Put your hands in the air!

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The next 7-10 days should be fun, but then again the past 3 weeks have been too:)

Jeremy

Just got back from the store, temos dropped to 35.3 already stiff NNW wind you can smell the cold in the air. . .  Monday is still up in the air. . .Ted

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Ted,

Thanks for the temp update.  31 at the St. Joe ob at 5pm!

Jeremy

Ice storm baby. Jeremy can u mention my name of the Weather cast

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As I mentioned we heard you predict the ice storm.  Let's see what happens.

Jeremy

You know for those of us that suffered through the Dec 11th ice storm we are NOT at all excited (and probably a little worried) to keep hearing of another ice storm.  Maybe you in KC would like one but St. Joe can live without one!

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I think almost everyone is with you.  This time around the precip. amounts look much less.  Remember the big ice storm had 1"+ of precip.  Not looking for anything close to that at the moment.

Jeremy

Hey JohnMarr, if you think the blog sucks because you don't like the weather predicted, you need to realize that the WX team has no control over that.  And you owe them an apology for your rudeness.

If you think the blog sucks because of how the information is conveyed, how about some constructive criticism.  Give an example of the info you would like to see and how you would like it presented.  And you STILL owe Jeremy an apology for your rudeness!

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That comment is behind us.  Take the good with the bad.  We'll discuss Monday later this evening.  Tracking arctic fronts isn't for everyone:)

Jeremy

BLJ1952. You sir are awesome

Everyone on this weather team is awesome.  Jeremy-thanks for reassuring me a little on the ice storm.  Winter cannot get over soon enough.  Being without power for days has left us a little uneasy w/the storm on Monday.  I am glad to hear that it will be less precep. which hopefully will lessen the chance of power going out and property damage.

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This setup is different than the ice storm in December.  This time around temperatures are much colder at the surface, and hopefully we can just get the temps aloft a little colder to avoid freezing rain.

Jeremy

This is one time I hope you're actually wrong about ice on Monday.  It would probably make sense for ice in JoCo KS, considering we've never had the right combination of temperature and moisture to get decent snowfall, so it's just par for the course to get ice instead of snow.  However, at least you're showing snow for those to the north.  Hope things change by Monday.

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I wouldn't completely lock in on freezing rain yet...because sleet & snow are also possible.  Plain old rain is looking unlikely this time around.

Jeremy

I do not want any freezing rain....  I will take a snow/sleet mixture!

I am looking forward to your analysis of  the weather for Monday, Jeremy.  

Thanks for all you do!

Kristi

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Thanks...time to eat and then blog!

Jeremy

blj1952 i didnt think iwas being rude i thought  it took very little effort to write avery uninformative blog no metion on how much or little precip but as bad as they missed last storms and other ice storm you couldnt belive them any how

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I needed a laugh today, and that just did it!  Gary addressed the our forecast with the last storm in a blog.  The forecast for other storms have been excellent.

Jeremy

John,
If you have even paid attention to this blog, you should very well know that storms like these can't be nailed down this far out.  Circumstances around here change too rapidly.
Take your complaining somewhere else, because its not needed here

High fives all around for Kck and BlJ1952

John he told us that he will update the Blog Later on tonight after he was finished eating. I am ready for the Icestorm.

But Ill keep my mouth shut untill the other blog shows up. Hopefully Jeremy is having Pizza

Jeremy  do you think we could miss this storm on monday or do you think we will get hit what are you thoughs on this one

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Just about to eat.  Blog should be done by 8pm.

Jeremy

OK, I hear everyone talking ice store here....Yikes!!   I am a weather idiot.  I know nothing about reading  maps or graphs, I just know what people tell me.  Anyway, I have a question and I hope someone can help.  What consititutes an ice storm?  Is the amount of ice? or what?   Just curious.  I just read NWS and they just said right now it looks the greater amount of ice greater than .10 from a Paola to Sedalia line.  I personally don't like that whatsoever.  Living in Sedalia I would prefer to have nothing with 70 degree temps...Can someone help me with that???LOL

I hope we do get an ice storm, that would be really cool

anyone that has been thru an ice storm doesn't want one including me if you haven't experience one will try it and maybe you won't like it after either they can be devastating and can take lives or can be tragic I prefer snow anyday but not ice.

If people drive during an ice storm, there will be deaths,

Greetings and salutations to all -  I echo (sic) most person's sentiments on this blog as well that the Weather Team at 41 are dedicated, talented, and willing to take TV forecasting beyond just rip-n-read into the theoretical, and whether I agree with everything or not (which no one here is obligated to do of course), I think most of us appreciate the Team's efforts and very-good accuracy most of the time.

As to Monday's "festive" (I use humor here) weather, I recall a saying my Dad used to tell me:

   "Let's NOT, and say we did" - this in reference to any ice whatsoever, in the
    Dog's humble opinion! :)!!!

Cheers,
The Dog

sedmo:

an ice storm as defined by the NWS is more than .25 inches of ice. also temps need to be from 28 to 32 for ice to accumulate on things.

can someone explain to me what "850mb Temp" means? How can one tell by the GFS and NAM maps whether there will be freezing rain or snow?

be careful LezakEF5, some of these people get a little upset when people start hoping for ice storm....(ask me how I know)....

ICE STORM WARNING accum ice of .50 or more

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY .25-50 as defined by NWS could get a WINTER STORM WARNING if a mixture of ICE and sleete and snow.

tem at 1830 hrs 25.4

the 850mb temps are basically a layer of air a few thousand feet up in the atmosphere...or at least thats what I understanded it to be....and they are critical in determining what type of precip will occur in winter storms..because if the 850mb temps are warm...and the temps above that and below that are cold...then the snow that is falling in the high levels of the atmosphere will melt when they reach the warm temps in the layer of 850mb...then when the melted snow drops fall into the cold layer of air at the surface it freezes in contact.

correct me if I'm wrong anyone ;)

thanks stjolawyer....I thought a freezing rain advisory was for .10 to .25 inches of ice...and an ice storm was for more than .25....but I do think its more than .50 inches of ice...

Lol. I win

An Ice Storm Warning is issued by the National Weather Service of the United States when freezing rain produces a significant and possibly damaging accumulation of ice. The criteria for this warning vary from state to state, but typically an ice storm warning will be issued any time more than 1/4" (6 mm) of ice is expected to accumulate in an area.

there you go

An Ice Storm Warning is issued by the National Weather Service of the United States when freezing rain produces a significant and possibly damaging accumulation of ice. The criteria for this warning vary from state to state, but typically an ice storm warning will be issued any time more than 1/4" (6 mm) of ice is expected to accumulate in an area.

there you go

Thanks Brent, That helps.   Then let it be known right now that if freezing rain has to come then I want less than .25 in...less than .10 would be too much for me.  I do not want ice!  I survived the ice storm in December but would prefer not to go through that again.  Lots of worrying if I was going to keep power or not.  I was fortunate that I did.  My thoughts were with all those who lost power.    

sorry for Double post my computer freezed up

AHH it is .25 inches of ice...

I figured that was the threshold of an ice storm...

a minor one though

"  sedmo said:
Thanks Brent, That helps.   Then let it be known right now that if freezing rain has to come then I want less than .25 in...less than .10 would be too much for me. "

sure, I would rather have snow than ice...too
especially if its not a lot of ice.....I say either have a major ice storm..or have nothing...don't just give us a skiff of ice that causes all kinds of road problems...

up in leavenworth I was without power for four days it was not fun I had to live with my mother in law for four days lol at least she's not that bad though but as the saying goes there's no place like home,also I had some roof damage from a tree limb and the phone line in my back yard was knocked down so no it was not fun and I'd prefer not to go thru that again,and I respect everyone's opinion on here but in my opinion I don't want another one.

makes you appreciate electricity doesn't it?
lol...I wonder what it was like in the old days with no power any time...

No computers!!!!
ack!

Ive been through several ice ice storms and I know the dangers...I remember the ice storm back in 2002 when Marceline got 2.5" and we lost power for a little over 2 weeks and had power line and trees down everywhere..KC also got hit by that storm if I remember correctly...I mean im 16 in high school...I just want a small amount of ice so we can get out of school early and miss school on Monday...I will wish for several inches of snow instead so i dont get anybody hyped up...yea I wish for 6 inches of snow instead. :)

7 day looks awesome!
I love 20's

Monday is looking quite disturbing to me right now....any rain or sleet that would fall...would become instant ice on the roadways...at that temp...

I have something in particular next thursday that I would like to be canceled...so bring on the snowstorm thursday and friday too!

Gary, your LRC is proven right...I see the 7th storm system!

Brent

yeah.....this storm is getting a ton of hype from the BLOGGERS!

not the weather team...

and people are coming on here and getting scared that we are going to have a major ice storm...well people....don't get all scared...its just a lot of hype right now...if there is a threat of a major ice storm...I will be talking about it...right now it does not look likely.

2.5 inches of ice is a lot! ouch...

there are copius amounts of teenagers on this blog...I didn't know so many young people loved weather so much...lol

Lol 15 years old. major Ice storm

Jeremy,  First, thank you for your hard work.  I look at the blog several times a day, but rarely post.
Seems like the minute ice is mentioned people rush to conclude ice storm.  I will be watching to see what you really think will happen.  Sounds more like "icy conditions".  
I lost power in '02 for 8 days here in waldo.  It was a cold, frightening inconvenience and anyone who has been affected that long by an ice storm would never ever mention excitement publicly in the midwest about having one!

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Ice storms are not fun...many have been thru at least one in the past.  The setup Monday could produce some freezing rain, but so far precip. amounts don't look nearly as great as what occurred in the December ice storm north of KC.

Thanks for posting and stopping by!

Jeremy

I am the Offical weatherman for the Olathe School District.

dude, you're JUUSSSTT starting to run it in the ground...

I think all the bloggers know your prediction, but I'll be the first you pay when it doesn't happen.

  Brent Said
" sure, I would rather have snow than ice...too
especially if its not a lot of ice.....I say either have a major ice storm..or have nothing...don't just give us a skiff of ice that causes all kinds of road problems..."

I am with you on this Brent.  I am a teacher.  I want either all or nothing.  If we get all, then I get a snow day.  If its just a skiff I will still have to slide all the way to school.   Especially since my school district doesn't call off very easily.   Lets hope this ice goes "poof" like the forcasted snows have the last few weeks.  The trend is there....LOL...

I thought I was one of the few teenagers until now...lol

I haven't had a chance to see any "live forecasts"' all day.
I see that there is freezing rain and very cold.  But I just checked out NWS and they are saying that there will be a warm surge in the later part of the day ??
How significant does this look at this time, a tenth a quarter or more?? I am sure LRC pattern has the heaviest going north.  Bloggers, If you can give me a brief rundown if you can on what you are hearing.  Or I can wait for Jeremy's new blog coming out for the update.  Thanks.  Wow, another storm while on vacation, Sounds like I timed it perfectly!

is this the dec. 22 storm?

Yes

I just looked back to the 22

we were all expecting a major winter storm.....we got missed terribbly

I was supposed to get 3 to 6 inches...I got a half inch...

don't get to excited...

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Don't get too excited is a good idea.  The forecast amounts look pretty low at the moment.  Working on a new blog right now...

Jeremy

Someone correct me if I am wrong...but..if I remember right, Dec 22 was the last of the 'storms' we for several weeks afterwards..so if Monday's storm is Dec. 22.  Does this mean that there won't be that many more storms until the cycle starts over again..by the way when does the LRC start over again?   Just trying to learn about the weather.

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I think there was a storm right after Christmas.  That would be Thurs/Fri.

Jeremy

Brent:
  In remembering Dec 22.  Here in Sedalia we only got an 1 inch.  We had lots of rain before the temps dropped and the snows began.  I hope this next system doesn't have as much precip.

Thanks Jeremy,   I will be looking to the KSHB weather team to get me through this week.  

Since we are all making wild predictions and blustery statements...

I am the Official Weatherman for the Galapagos Islands...and I predict large turtles will one day inhabit the earth!

Lol...just having some fun....slow weather night!

Fred

"The forecast amounts look pretty low at the moment"

yup

"We had lots of rain before the temps dropped and the snows began."

yes that is true also...

but if the LRC is true...then why will we not have lots of precip this time?...if it really is the same storm in the cycle?...

Fred. I am seriously the weather man for the Olathe school district. Superintendent Dr. Patrica All said so

BTW ICE STORM

22 DEC STJOE 9 IN of snow in with thunder. . . then we had some clippers bring in 2-4 every now and then; then the warm up. . . then you remember the 35 degree rain about a moth ago STJOE had .77 in  and we were 33.4  just missed a winter event.  Look back at the 2 JAN  LRC 45 DAY outlook this # 5 of 7 storms Gary said were possible late Jan to mid Feb.    

um yeah st joseph never misses out....

they did on the storm 2 weeks ago

I see some radar returns up north are they aloft or are they reaching the ground.

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Probably some flurries or snow showers.

Jeremy

yeah they did...but whatever....every storm Harisonville has ever gotten this year has been under an inch......except one...

Brent, I hear you...Sedalia, if I am adding correctly...has only seen about 6 inches of snow all year.   3 inches of that came the weekend of Dec. 15.   We have had 2 one inches and a couple half inchers or less.  So if Sedalia is to hit the 20 inch total for the year then next snow storm will have to dump 15 inches on us!  I think its safe to say we won't hit 20 inches for the year.   I am OK with that!!

the december 22nd storm was the biggest one of the season yet...we had convective snows for several hours here at the fort...

however, 54 days from dec 22nd is valentines day, not mon/tuesday...at the moment i excpect the storm later in the week to be more interesting then the one early in the week.

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I think you are correct.  The V-day storm look more impressive...on almost all models.  As I mention in the new blog QPF looks very light on Monday.

Jeremy

It is NOT going to be a MAJOR ice storm. It might be minor. When is the next chance for an accumulating SNOW?