Watch NBC Action News at 10pm and again from 5-7am for the latest weather information and advisories for Monday!
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The latest info is in and it continues to look like the bulk of the precipitation will stay south/southeast of the area. The focus will be near the I-44 corridor. The precipitation totals that I just showed on the news were as follows. Around KC...0.00-0.02" Warrensburg area...0.02-0.05" Clinton and other areas in the far southeast part of the viewing area. 0.05-0.10". For KC light snow/flurries/frz. drizzle could occur. Morning commute looks good for basically all locations. The storm heading thru the northern Plains may actually bring some snow to parts of the area during the evening hours as it dives southeast. Basically much of the area is in 'no man's land on Monday'...meaning we are sandwiched between two systems. Here is the latest accumulated precipitation map from the 00Z GFS. Have a great night and you can see my thoughts from earlier which haven't changed too much below the update.
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After tracking an arctic front all day Saturday the cold air surged into the region overnight and put temperatures into the deep freeze today. Highs across the region were in the teens and lows 20s. It could have been worse though...Fargo, ND had a high of -12 degrees on Sunday! With clear skies this evening and arctic high pressure nearby temperatures will quickly drop down into the single digits. Areas to the northeast of Kansas City that still have a decent snow pack will likely hang on either side of 0 tonight!
By morning clouds thicken and our next distrubance will bring us a chance of freezing drizzle/sleet/snow. In anticipation of the little storm the NWS has issued the following advisories for the are effective on Monday.
As I stressed last night the total liquid output for this storm looks to be light for most of the area. I think Kansas City will fall in the trace to 0.05" category and then totals will slowly increase the farther to the southeast of the metro you travel. That light liquid total could still produce some light snow totals in the metro since temps will be very cold. Around Clinton, MO totals may be between 0.10-0.20". The precipitation type from Kansas City and points north will likely be some freezing drizzle or snow. A little sleet may mix in, but I think better chances for sleet will occur to the southeast of the city. Areas around Sedalia, Marshall, Clinton, Warrensburg, and Appleton City can expect anything from freezing drizzle to sleet to snow. Accumulations of sleet/snow may be in the neighborhood of 0.5-1.5". And any ice accumulation should stay under 0.10". Since this is an overrunning situation with a warm front to the south, the amount and location of the precipitation could shift. Overrunning situations can be very tricky! We will have to watch this closely, but right now the above precip. totals look good.
Even with the light precipitation in the forecast the surface temperatures will be very cold. Highs will likely remain in the 20s on Monday. Certainly cold enough to produce snow, but the layers above the surface will be the determining factor as we discussed yesterday as to how much freezing drizzle or sleet mixes in or is produced. Regardless, I think some slippery roads will be possible across the region, with likely some of the trickiest stretches over the southeast tier of counties in the viewing area. As I continue to mention, back in December we had a trace of freezing rain/drizzle and it caused numerous accidents. So just a little freezing drizzle/sleet/snow with surface temperatures in the teens and low 20s will result in anything falling...sticking on contact.
Timing...it looks like the precipitation will begin during the mornings hours. I'm crossing my fingers that it holds off until after 8am. But that looks like the best chance from KC and points north. I think the precip. begins south of the city first and then gradually spreads north and will be off and on in areas from the morning into the afternoon and maybe early evening.
Below is the setup for this disturbance on Monday. The front over the southern Plains is creating a huge temperatures spread already on Sunday afternoon. At 4pm it was 19 degrees in Downtown Kansas City and 75 in Dallas, TX!
The precipitation identifiers over MO & eastern KS that look like infinity signs(somewhat) represent the mix that may occur. Otherwise the 'R' is thunderstorms...there's one over Texas & Oklahoma. And the upside down triangle with a star/asterisk above it represents snow. So this is a good map if you are a beginner trying to learn how to read a surface map.
Another thing to take note of is the low cruising in Nebraska. This will bring accumulating snow to the upper Midwest and Plains. The southern extent of that snow may bring around 1" of snow to areas like Trenton and Maryville. This will really depend on how far south that low travels.
To recap...Winter Weather Advisory for Monday for central and southern areas. Greateast precipitation totals should be over the far southern and southeastern tier of counties in the viewing area. Freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow look to be the main precipitation types. Icy spots may/will develop on some roads as temps will be in the teens and 20s. A secondary low could bring some snow to areas near the MO/IA border. Precipitation begins in areas during the morning and ends with in the afternoon or evening.
I hope this helps you to plan your Monday! Make sure to tune in to NBC Action News for the latest on this developing weather.
Jeremy