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Thank you, Gary, for the fantastic news this morning that we are escaping the freezing rain.  Your forecast was not wrong; it's just that many people have been praying that we will not have freezing rain.  I've been wanting to tell you that when there are unexplainable changes.  You are still the best!

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Thanks, we never thought this storm was coming together for us.  They are having an ice storm in Joplin and Springfield right now, and it is clipping our southern counties.

Gary

I'm hoping March will come in like a lion; you know, like the good ol' days!

Thank you, Gary, for making my day with the moderating forecast.  Along with many others, I'm sure, freezing rain is always bad news in my book!  Have a great day!!

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Your welcome!  Have  a great day!

Gary

Part of me secretly wishes that the ice was here.LOL. Oh well, I geuss it is for the better. So does it apear that winter is over for us? As far as snow is concerned. I am sure that the cold will be around for a couple of weeks atleast. Thanks for the great info. Have a great day.

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Winter isn't over for us!  Just let what happens happen.  I am certain we will warm up, but also have more chances for snow before spring really gets going.

Gary

Ok. Well ill emal brent and congrad him on his win

Thanks for the update.....Do you think there could still be some freezing drizzle??

It is a buyers market right now and I think it has almost come to the point of me looking to find a job in another part of the country where the weather isn't so boarderline and where you can expect certain weather more often. The near misses and being on the fence all the time is aging me. I think I  may need to look into getting a prescription for Prozac because yesterday I had no energy and was down in the dumps just knowing that the reality of another miss would occur. And here I sit watching radar and reading updated forecasts only confirming my reoccurring nightmares. Although,  I did have a wonderful dream two nights ago about a wonderful storm with lots of snow. I've been going on Youtube and typing in snowstorms, blizzards, thundersnow, etc. for a glimmer of what could be and the temporary satisfaction of seeing snow. That's sad I have to do that. It's not any meteorologists fault but just my unfulfilled passion and love for snow! The 1982 Saint Louis Blizzard was like my pet dog, my best friend who ran away and got lost and I keep waiting at the window hoping one day he will return. I know that would be an old dog but I refuse to believe he's dead and that I will never see him again. Now I must muster up energy to go to work. Sadness abounds.

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We must look forward to our next chance of snow.  There will be another good one before the season is over, but I can feel your frustration.

Gary

I think  winter storm chances for this area are over precipitation wise anyway.  Know why?  I bought some awesome snow boots yesterday, so its official, no more snow!!!           PS.  not a real forecast, just a probability!

I'll never complain when we miss ice (lots or little)!  But like dpollard, I am sad that we aren't getting any snow.  I too dream of snow like I grew up with in NY and in the lake snow band of Lake Ontario.  I may not yet be able to make my own forecasts but thanks to the blog, I'm beginning to understand more about why we get what we get and don't get what misses us.  Thanks Gary and the team for educating us so well.  The blog is awesome!   Happy No-Ice Monday everyone!
Mary

dpollard: too funny! I feel the same way...just never knew how to put it into words. Love the lost dog analogy. roflol...

Well, guys, plenty of good real estate available in snowy upstate New York. Just make sure you build your dream house with a strong enough roof to hold all that weight. Plus, doesn't Jeremy have some real estate for sale in Wisconsin?

Please, I went out and bought snow pants and stuff for my kids and myself... plus sleds and haven't got to use them once.  Its my fault!
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Now we know why these storm systems have missed us lately.

Gary

Has anyone inside the 435 loop even been hit with one single 4" snowstorm this entire year?  To my knowledge they haven't, unless the northern fringes got it on Dec 22.  I think any snow lover out there would have gladly traded all of our little tiny snows for one good one this year.  To say it's been frustrating is an understatement.  I would have to say it's been quite a few years since we have seen a winter where nobody inside the loop saw a single storm worth mentioning.  Unless something changes, this will go down as one of the most pathetic winters in a long time.  This is true in part because there were a number of times when it looked as though we would get hit pretty hard, and not once did it happen.  Not over yet, but not looking good.  There is just no other way to put it.

Matt

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Matt,

I has been JUST outside the 435 loop.  Even in Parkville west of I-435 compared to Parkville east of I-435 has been amazing.  6 inches twice 1 mile west of I-435 and just two to three miles away it was around 3 inches each time.

Gary

So, you have a strong feeling the Thurs/Fri storm is going south of us now?  Isn't that the last storm of this particular cycle, so we're probably done for any more decent snow this winter season?

I realize you keep saying the winter's not over and "we must look forward to our next chance of snow," but I just don't have any faith it's going to happen.  I guess for those of us "southerners" we can hope for a cold snap with enough moisture in March to give us some good snow, but that's a pipe dream at this point.  Just be blunt Gary and tell us winter's over after this week.  We're adults we can handle it, we'll some of us.

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But, winter isn't over yet.  There is still some chance that Thursday night and Friday's storm will look very different soon.  And, then the cold and stormy part of the pattern is still returning in March.  So, this is why we should just relax and go day by day.

Gary

Here's some views of ice in Springfield if anyone is interested.

http://www.ozarkstraffic.info/

Gary,

Last week, in referencing today's weather, you said:

"Storm #5 will be moving by on Monday & Tuesday.  This one has been looking a bit different on each model run that comes out.  This storm on the cycle in November was flat and well north of Kansas City, but later in December it was more amplified, had a southern extension and was a more significant storm.  Which version will it be this time?"

So the first time, it missed us to the north.  Then it hit us by being stronger closer to the metro.  Now it is missing us to the South.  If these storms can shift tracks 100-200+ miles creating either a direct hit or a big miss, an important aspect that isn't clear until the storm is only ~24-48 hours out, how does your theory idea help you in your forecasting for such an event?

Is the storm later this week supposed to parallel the December 22nd storm that hammered much of the KC area with the biggest storm of the season thus far and gave us all a White Christmas?    

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Notes,

I believe this storm, right now, is the December 22nd storm, and the one at the end of the week is the December 26th-28th storm systems that hit us with two events.  This time through the cycle is very similar, but we have something different happen specifically. 

And, there are many ways that the LRC helps us.  It won't make a magical thing happen and we will get a storm system each time.  If you remember, I hesitated on saying we could have a 5th-7th storm systems, because in November the storm systems went to our north and we had a long dry spell.  This one, today is hitting and producing, but it was always suspect for our local area.  On the other hand, the 4 storm systems that are more dominant features were picked out quite well by the LRC. 

I will be issuing a new long range forecast sometime this week.  In the summary I will include how the LRC is helping.  Remember we are just learning how to use it.  But, there can be no denying that in January our forecast for the second half of January to have a strong Arctic air mass take over ended up verifying, while almost any other source at that time said that it would be warm during that period.  The LRC helped here as well.  Can you see this. And, there are many other ways that we will explain in future reports on my theory.

Gary

Believe it or not, I'm a snow lover but I am actually ready for this winter to be over now. All these near misses have just led to excitement and then disappointment, and now my internal clock is telling me it's time for it to start warming up again. So bring on Spring!

Whats the chance of Downtown KC seening that evening snow tonight?

Excellent question Notes, I've been wondering the same thing, but you've phrased it better.

I like the "tiny" snows. I'm well within the 435 loop and have had 3" on several occassions, maybe 4" once, which is just fine with me. I've shoveled myself out of many foot plus snows before, and it stinks. We've had enough to cover the ground, let people sled and build snowmen, but never had a snow that made life impossible.

I talked with some relative that live in Springfield and they said it is extremly icy down there right now

Notes>>>>>> I have not been on here long enough to understand the LRC and how it works but u bring up a good question. I did notice this weekend that Jeremy mentioned the LRC on air so I am wondering if he is convinced that the LRC is a valid tool?

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It is a valuable tool!  But, not always on a specific date.  There are some features in the pattern, that we have much more confidence in.  We will discuss this later in the week.

Gary

Gary,  you said in december (I think) that "the ball" landed on the right spot for us to have an active winter. Which within this region has been very active. When I say region I include st. joe, really 50 miles within metro K.C. So I would say you were right on with the ball landing in the right spot for us to have an active winter. Its been active within kc metro but just missed on some of the higher prec. totals. Yes, its been frustraiting!. But at least there has been storms around to talk about this year. Better than some of the past several years. So, my question is how often does "the ball " land on the right spot for us. My initial guess would be 1 out of every 3 winters. What do you think?

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Unfortunately, I would say it lands in the right spot around once every 10 winters.  But, this doesn't mean we can't have two in a row.  And, we haven't missed the heavy precipitation totals, just the heavy snow totals.  We all  seem to forget the heavy rains.

Gary

Boy I feel really terrible for the folks down south.  Two years in a row with a bad ice storm, wow.  dpollard lighten up a bit and look to the brighter side of things.  Snow is nice but gosh don't let it bother you that much.  Have a great day everyone.  
Gary... Thanks for your great forcasting.

The Dragon enjoyed the heck out of the sunshine yesterday, even though it was brutal cold. 'twas a very long walk from the car into church. But still, there was rejoicing the fact of there being no snow or ice on the ground, nothing to slip on, except the Dragon's tail, of course.  ;-)

And now it appears that we will be spared today's storm and possibly Thursday's as well. The Dragon approves with a mighty belch of fire and hot air. Go ahead, make yer jokes. But the PoofDragon sits satisfied.

Have a great day! Only 39 days until Spring!

Oh, and DPollard, good luck to ya, buddy.

Hello,

I'm at Olathe Medical Center, my mom,and Faith are just fine. My mom I think will be staying one more night. She's has to stay in for 3-4 days because she had have a emergency C-Section. The cord was wrapped around the baby's neck, I'm so thankful that the doctors caught that!!

I'm still doing a Snow Dance!

I've got to go to Springfield on business about 3 today.  Not looking forward to that!  Check out the MoDOT map:  http://maps.modot.mo.gov/travelerinformation/TravelerInformation.aspx

Wish me luck!

Gary,

This is my third winter in the metro and this winter is the coldest of the three I have experienced [per your forecast]. The storm pattern has definitely been active. But, there have been many near misses this season here in the south metro. After my first winter here in 2005-2006 and, outside of the December 2005 snowstorm, I was under the impression that winter largely missed the Kansas City area. I was incorrect in my observation. I have to believe that winter still has some surprises awaiting us before the season exits our area and we begin "blogging" about supercell thunderstorms, dry lines, cloud rotation, spiking dewpoints and a forecaster on another TV station in town interupting every program with warnings of impending doom everytime a decent radar return appears on the screen.

Keep up the good work...

Bob

Well....even when it goes to south I get missed..LOLOLOLOL. Oh well ice is not something I want anyways....feel bad for the folks south of me. I have a trace amount of sleet but that is it. Brrrrr, it is a cold one. Have a great day.
Monica
Pleasanton KS

OK it is feburay 11th by the 20th are averige high is 48 and by the 30th are average is up to 50 Iv'e had it with cold weather bring on spring most years ive noticed most of the trees begin buding by the end of feburary i guess its time for all you winnter lovers to fly north for the spring beacause looking at long term modles you only have mabe two more weeks of cold weather

infact if you look at previous febuarys it is almost always cold this week and into next week and then in almost every feburary it warms up in the last two weeks of feburary i know we can still have some late clold snaps but its not normal so dont expext it. soon enough all you snow lovers will relize that kansas city is truly to far south to have a long cold winter look at most cities north of us you will see that they most days of the winter months will not even get above frezzing while are averige high never drops below 37 kansas city is closer to the gulf of mexico then it is to canada

Yippee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thank You GARY!!!

Wahoo!!!!!!! . . . . . . . Woot!

WARMTH????!!!!! NO SNOW, ICE, SLUSH? Sub Zero Temps?

YEA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  ATL 2 KCMO said:
OK it is feburay 11th by the 20th are averige high is 48 and by the 30th are average is up to 50 Iv'e had it with cold weather bring on spring most years ive noticed most of the trees begin buding by the end of feburary i guess its time for all you winnter lovers to fly north for the spring beacause looking at long term modles you only have mabe two more weeks of cold weather

I'm with you bring on Spring!  Less than 4 weeks until day light savings.

Here comes the Sun do do do dooooo.

:-)

oh my gosh, dpollard, that was funny.  Are you a writer?!  I'm right there w/ you.  While very active, this winter has been absolutely frustrating.  I'm ready to throw in the towel and think about the thunderstorms.  They are much more of a sure thing around these parts.  Kathleen

Weather Team - Thanks for you accurate forecasts.  I have realtives driving up from Texas on Friday.  You mentioned that the next storm will miss us to the South.  Do you think they will have icy road to deal with in Oklahoma and Southern Kansas?

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Let's wait and see where this next storm decides to go before we get into specifics.

Gary

As far as the LRC goes are we done with this part of the wet cycle and onto the dry part?  When does the wet part return again?  I'm wondering if the next wet part of the cycle will return as thunderstorms instead of snow.  Spring should be very interesting.

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Oh yes, spring will be interesting.  I love winter, and for me I could handle about 6 months of it, but spring will take over eventually as the days get longer and the cold air retreats, but not yet.  March is often a time of wild battles between spring and winter, so our strongest storm of the winter could be near by sometime in March. 

And, the wetter part of the pattern is likely going to return for two weeks in March as well.  I will try to pin down the dates sometime this week.

Gary

gary do you any storms brsides thursday in the next 10 days thanks

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There is a strong potential for more storm systems in the next two weeks.  Even when it warmed up early in January there were some storm systems.  We have had non stop storm systems deepening into the longwave trough near St. Louis.  I don't expect it to stop for quite some time, although there may be a break for a few days at times.

Gary

I remember a week in April, I think it was in 1993 we had 70 degrees one day, sunshine one day, 40s and rain one day, and then snow the next day!!! I will never forget that week.  It was crazy, so crazy stuff can happen even after a particular season.  What are our chances of any more sufficient precipitation producing storm systems in the long range forecast?  Do we see any more chances for snow after the Thursday storm? I hope so, I'm not just quite ready for winter to end yet.  We  have like 5 more weeks right?  or is it 4 weeks?

well Gary's comment on john marrs question answered my question.

well sedalia schools are getting an early out. the precip has not been heavy just enough to glaze the roads to make them hazardous.

well down here in sedalia the schools are letting out early. the precip has not been heavy just a real fine freezing mist to glaze the roads and cars to make it hazardous

Gary - so we are not having ice or anything like that, even a glaze, today right?  I know it's down toward Sedalia, Lincoln and Clinton - how far north and west from there does it go?  Or can you tell?  I live about 20 miles west of Warrensburg off 50 and wondered if it would be icy down that way.  Thanks!

I am glad the weather isnt that bad...we have been lucky.  I went to Chicago for the first time this weekend and it got COLD on Sunday morning...and the wind that was blowing was from the east...off the lake.....BRRRRR  I think the temp was zero and the real feel temp was like -30.  Honestly, I am tired of the winter weather here.  We need some warmups.  I know that mid to late march could setup for whatever wild weather is out there from the cycle, but I say get the warm up in here and lets enjoy some late winter!  HEHE

Gary,

You said back on January 2nd in your 45-day forecast....
"Then it is back to a long stretch of winter, the coldest air of the season, and likely a few snowstorms that will be bigger, more widespread, and possibly record breaking."

Now I was under the assumption that there would be more widespread cold temperatures around.  And with these last two storm systems alot of the people in the southern viewing area were trying to fight off the rain.  The second storm had some pretty heavy rain showers before the snow event.  Based on what you said in your 45-day forecast I was assuming that these storms would/should have been all snow.  Is there any explanation you have for having the rain followed by the snow when you said "a few snowstorms that will be bigger, more widespread, and possibly record breaking?"

I don't doubt the LRC, but I can't find any reason why I can fully accept it 100%?!?

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I think it will take a long time for you to fully accept the LRC, but that statement had nothing to do with the LRC, it had to do with what I thought would happen on this next time through the cycle.  Does that make sense?  So, the storm systems have returned, and instead of being stronger, more wide spread and colder, they ended u being similar, about the same amount of precipitation in varying forms, but they were still there.  So, this weather pattern continues to cycle, it is just the forecast that was only a bit off.   I can show you on the maps how the storm systems repeated and how the weather pattern is cycling, but 45 days out I thought these storm systems might have been a bit stronger.  Now, as we look ahead we will again make a 45 day forecast sometime this week. We are certain that the LRC exists. We are certain that the series of storm systems that we just had will also return.  But, how strong or weak they are and where they track to the mile is still in question. 

Gary

I see that bellgolf updated everyone for Sedalia.  I am a teacher and I just got home.  There is a glaze on the streets so it is very slick out right now.  I hope this freezing mist goes away.  YUCK!!  Gary, please tell me Sedalia will escape Thursday's system.  I am tired of snow, ice, sleet...I am ready for spring.  Bring on the storms.

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We still have to watch the end of the week storm closely.  Thanks for the update on Sedalia.

Gary

light freezing rain/snow in columbia, ground is icy and grass has a dusting.

Anything more significant expected in this area?

Our oldest daughter teaches at Waynesville down by Ft. Leonard Wood, and she just called to say she got home...The roads are really bad. They were releasing at 11:30, but started getting the kids that drove out by 9:30 and had the busses running by 10, because it got bad so fast...

sedmo or bellgolf08, have you heard anything about Warsaw?

My prayers are with those in southern mo.  Ice is no fun and they have been hit before (even earlier this year i believe).  I hope for everyone this goes away soon.  For those of you in KC that love snow and haven't had the pleasure of having a whole lot this winter I still  have about 4-5 inches in my backyard from last week.  Drive on up to St. Joe!  

I was just wondering about thursday storm. I know I should probably just wait. I was just curious if this looked significant. If it had a favorable track on Kansas City. Would there be enough moisture for it. If we get some snow or sleet then I will probably have to work that night. I hope everyone down south stays safe and enjoys the weather. Eventhough it is dangerous it still can be amazing to watch.

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Right now the Thursday into the weekend storm is forecast to be very minor for us.  Once again, right now this is how it looks.

Gary

It seems as though now that you're adjusting and comparing the current storm (the storm that is icing southern Missouri) with the December 22nd storm - the one that buried the northern counties with snow (St. Joe to Topeka with 8"+ inches) and it comes off like a bit of a shell game - a bit of an attempt at some maneuvering after the fact to make it all fit.  

The majority of our recent snow/rain events have far from paralleled the sequence of events in either October (massive, wet cuttoff low that retrograded through the plains around 10/23) or December (frequent, significant snows throughout the region) in my view.

From your list of events posted back on Friday, some were 48 days apart, some were 54, some were more.  Some events hit north of KC, others hit south...and now some are complete misses, but are supposed to be analagous.  I think a number of people have had a hard time seeing the comparison and that's why I ask is to flesh out these contraditions.  

Yes, I can see that your 45-day forecast included the significant arctic air that came through in late January, but that was not that unexpected by many of us who saw the cold dome building and being bottled up over the north pole...it was fairly predicatble that it was only a matter of time before a dip in the jet allowed that air to spill down through the plains.  I don't see how that paralleled any significant arctic blasts 54 days prior which is what your theory would have argued for.  

Furthermore, while the southeast was suffering through one of their most severe droughts on record in the fall, they have had a spate of quite wet storms that have really alleviated the dry conditions - a major turnaround from October/November.  You have mentioned that your theory works for the entire hemisphere but there seem to be some significant anomalies that have not fit any pattern.  Do you see where I'm coming from?  I know you don't have time to analyze other regions, but would you agree that the weather over large swaths of the country has been dramatically different than what it was like in those same regions 54 days ago?  

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Notes,

Do you think the weather will be dramatically different in May than it is now?  Of course.  But, I will still tell you that it is the same pattern, and I know you still don't believe that pattern is cycling.  

Anyway, the weather pattern is producing rather similar weather to what happened in December.  This time, as expected, there is much more Arctic air in Canada to be tapped. And, for our local area we haven't seen a widespread storm but we have had similar things happen.  I will go into this more when I have time. 

Jeff Penner and I will be studying the maps this afternoon.  We will discuss the entire pattern tororrow, or at the latest Wednesday.

Gary

DfromWarsaw- i have not heard anything about warsaw i am thinkin you may have got more than us cuz you are farthers south.
Sedmo-where do you teach

Bellgolf08
  I work at the Middle School.. I am thankful for the early out today.   I am recovering from the flu so the early out was welcomed!   I hope it quits here though I really don't want to have to make up a snow day.

wow this is terrible...all I saw a was 5 minute period of freezing mist...

hmm......

almost all of these "7" storms..have missed the metro...meaning...not bull's eyed us...

I heard another station say that there would be a series of storm systems...but most of them would likely miss us...I thought he was wrong...until...but it was just a guess

but you Gary...said that would be more widespread and stronger....

all january, I haven't seen more than 1 inch of snow down here...

st josph on the other hand...has had harsh winter weather...and many strong winter storms.....

thats good that you are recovering. i dont care if we get snow days or not being a senior and all

Hey RogOzSam-just looked outside down here and there are a couple flurries, and a light dusting,VERY LIGHT dusting of snow on the deck and car. I think we are going to be ok.

Hopefully the "blowtorch" warm air will hold off for awhile. Hopefully we will get some more decent snowfall soon.
The low temperature at International Falls, MN this morning was -40F!!!

DfromWarsaw:
  I just talked to a friend in Warsaw...said they let school out at 9am there becuase it got so bad so quick.  She didn't think it was too bad out as long as you were careful. She said it was sleet there.   I know here in Sedalia we have had nothing but a very fine freezing mist that has glazed everything over.   I am ready for spring.

The pattern has been pretty active.  You can include today's storm since it is hitting parts of the viewing area.  Like I said yesterday, Gary's 45-day forecast has been accurate but not perfect (so close tho).

Gary,
If I had to grade your 45-day forecast, I would probably give it a B+....  We didn't have as much cold air in place.  I don't see other meteorologists on TV putting out a 45-day forecast.

I am sticking with Gary and his team...  I really appreciate what they do!  It's very hard to predict the weather and no one's perfect at it.  Some are better than others at predicting the weather.  I think that Gary and his team are the best at it here in the KC area!

Kristi

I really enjoyed last Monday's temp.  Bring on spring!

Kristi

I have some relatives down in springfield and it is really bad down there.   They are holding onto their power, but roads are very slushy and the the ice is very thick on trees and power lines.    The wind is somewhat strong, so that could knock out more power.    Lets just be glad we missed this storm.   Nobody really wants a major ice storm unless your a kid wanting out of school

Thanks Braysmama - my friend said Warrensburg was "in the track" but it was just something she heard on one of the weather stations this morning - that's a little to close for me, when it's ice - I hate driving in it.  Even just a little is too much for me!  Let me know if it starts or anything.  

It's snowing some in Blue Springs now -- just a little dusting if you hold your eyes right!

not much going on here in Parkville. Looking forward to the warmup!

This storm looks oddly familiar to the Tornado Outbreak they had down there in January. I know this is way to early to be part of the LRC - but the track and everything training over the same areas.... just brings back memories.

I just stepped outside here in Sedalia.  It is still freezing mist, but now you can actually see a few white flakes in the air.  Before here, you couldn't see it but you would feel it when you stepped out.   its bad here and we can't even look out to enjoy the scenery since there is nothing to show for it.  You gotta love winter.

We've had very fine snow coming down in south Lee's Summit for the last hour or so.

Well kind of depressing news...   But I can't complain, we have had lost of fun here in St. Joe, and even now the ground is still covered in white, unless it is a steep south facing hill other than that alot of "icesnow" is left covering the ground and it is freezing cold and  icecicles are hanging from everywhere the ride will continue and then we will get into March... that should be fun.  So I will enjoy the wintry landscape knowing that it is only a matter of time before it is gone.

I was questioning the LRC myself a few weeks ago when we missed the snowstorm to the south.   Now, after taking a step back and looking at what happened over the last 3 months, it fits in the LRC.    

Gary said we would be cold, and nailed the first artic outbreak weeks before it occured.   Then he went out on a limb and said 4-7 more storms and stronger.   He almost got that one right as well.... the only problem for us is these storms have been minor for the core of the metro.  Draw a line from St Joe to Topeka to Wichita to Springfield to St Louis then back to St Joe...  We are a bullseye surrounded by major storms.    If you look at total precip, we are above avg and are close to the surrounding area.    The only problem is that alot of it was just plain rain, which adds up compared to snow in terms of liquid measurement.

I expect this to continue thru March until the spring storms start to fire, then we wont be in the wrong position everytime.    No evil dryslots to worry about!!!

I just keep thinking how we missed out on a major ice storm followed by a major snow storm last week.    If all that rain had occured at 30 degrees and the low dig in east of us later that night... WOW!!!!

Just my random thoughts

Joe

I don't see any big warming trends, but I think we will have a few periods of above normal temperatures. However, if you look at the pattern this winter the above normal temperatures don't last very long. If we have a normal to below normal temps in March then we won't have the PROBLEMS we did last April when we had the bigger freeze.