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So is that 5% chance of snow going up. I want some more snow to forecast to everyone. Ofcourse we will have an icestorm in March

I don't know which I look forward to more....the actual snow, or the excitement that Gary & his team bring to forecasting the snow. Its nearly impossible not to get wrapped up in the passion they exhibit for their craft.

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Thank you so much! 

 

Gary

I have received 23.5" at my house in western KCK.

   Good Evening Gary, So you think there are still quite a bit of snow chance's left? Im ready for it to stay nice outside, Does it look like the low with track south?

Here is a video for all us southern KC snow lovers who missed the big snow storms this year! I have no idea where it was filmed, but that is a LOT of snow! =) http://youtube.com/watch?v=0sUL0KCIc48

MARLINA10>>>>>  That was awsome video!! That is the kind of snow we need my dogs would love it like that one did.

CHFS327>>>>>  Did you get a new generator for the house or something u are always wanting the ice storm. No ice nut yes to snow.....

funny...i thought topeka was in kansas, not missouri.  shows what i know ;)

How much snow had Jhonson County executive airport have for the season? It is the closest land mark I can think of near my house.

  Byan.

Hey. So Gary how much snow we gonna get. a dusting to an inch

Gary do you think with the winter fanally, that there will be an icestorm in march if the winter finally is in the 45 day forecast you will probably make on wednesday? I want to know what to expect and will there be some severe weather in olathe in the begaining of march?

Murph,

It's your state capitol!

 Hello Gary, I was wondering why,  yesterday and last night the flurries continued;on live esp it seem like it never moved, just wondering what caused that, anything like that tonight, Thanks and keep up the great work, you all do an awsome job

New Models show the storm moving northward and us in the .25-.50 range

the blog title was exciting...but the blog itself wasn't...lol

"chfs327 said:
New Models show the storm moving northward and us in the .25-.50 range"

is that a fact or a figment of your imagination?

Gary, is the storm moving north and getting stronger?(Im hoping...)

Weather Team, with the KC weather a little slow right now, I think I'll ask the following.  It seems like last winter you used the expression "cutoff low, weatherman's woe" a couple of times in reference to storms.  But it seems like I have not heard any of you mention that expression this winter.  (Now, I could be wrong on both accounts there...just relying on memory here.)  However, if I am right on both accounts, does the frequency of cutoff lows tend to vary year to year?  Or season to season?

Thanks!

he did talk about the cutoff low more times last year than he has this year...but I do believe he has mentioned it more than once this year.....earlier in the late fall early winter time period

Good Evening Gary and the rest of the weather team,

Interesting day here in Wyandotte County, Saw a few moderate to almost heavy bands of snow flurries this morning that provided a quick dusting of snowfall on the cars, and also blowing around on the roadways on my way to work. Reached a high of 24° and we are currently sitting at 16.8°. Temps seem to be hanging on this evening as we await the warm air advection to kick in later on tonight. Looks like according to the latest model runs from this afternoon that we will mostly miss out on the snowfall this coming Thursday. Maybe something more down the road! Still looking forward to those warmer temps and interesting weather. By the way…if you Gary or anyone else on the blog know the answer to this….GREAT! When do we starting seeing the trees bud out and get leaves on them in Kansas City? You would think after living here for so many years that I would know the answer to this. But I know living in Norman that it always seemed to start earlier then it did in Kansas City. Of course being further south, one would expect that to occur at a much earlier date.

Good night everyone!

Bryan

Only 37 days until the official start of "SPRING"

Well the internet was not kind to me loading wise today:(, but here I am,
we had cold clear blue skies here in St. Joe today perfect conditions for growing icicles we have quite a bit of them now.   Oh, and saying "Threat" of snow in the blog title...
tisk, tisk, Gary, you should bite your tongue;)

Can "flurries" be described as moderate to heavy?

Greg Yes they can be described as moderate to heavy.

I was wondering why the snow that fell today disappeared. At my house in Raytown, the high was 22* There was a good dusting out there this morning. Thanks for answering this.

I received about 3'' of snow today, courtesy of my snow machine. I now have a 4-5" deep pile of snow that takes up about 1/3 of my backyard. I was going to try to get pictures in, but my email has been working up lately. I don't really care about the weather anymore, as long as it's cold. :) Ignoring that last sentence, does the storm seem to be taking aim on us?

I was wondering that as well Greg, seemed a bit odd to call it moderate to heavy.

ROFL!

heavy flurries!!!!

Wow, then we had moderate to heavy flurries this morning in Olathe. I'm kinda looking forward to 60's and 70's with some moderate to heavy drizzle!

Looking at the 18Z GFS, it looks like that storm wants to visit Mexico, the NAM has it not go as far south but it to has it not getting close to us, BUT at least right now both models at least through us a bone with a band of light snow so we will see.  So the warmer trend is starting to be realized, well look on the bright side, that means we are  getting much closer to March where the fun should begin again, not to say we won't have any interesting weather later this month but it may likely be just rain if any thing.

Mexico is a great place to visit...

I want it all. I want it all. I want it all. And I want it now!

Just Wait for it. ok. There will be KCs share of snow during march and April. Also we will have a Ice storm in March as well as a 12 inch Blizzard. Just Be Patience

snowblind, the reason that it went away is because of two factors, one is sublimation, in other words it evaporated straight from a solid to a gas, and the snow was so little and with a low moisture content sublimation got rid of it, and in areas with sun, even though the air temp was below freezing the heat from the sun was easily enough to take care of the small amount of snow that there was.  Hope that helps.

Man, Sunday looks awesome!

chfs327, I really hope your wrong.  I don't want an ice storm, I don't want a 12 inch blizzard!! Of course this is Kansas and Missouri so if for some strange reason you are right, it will melt the next day when its 70 degrees again!!  LOL

Models coming out

yup.....we'll see if the metro is in .25 to.50 inches of precip like chfs327 said.....

Snowblind:  Evaporation

yup I've had a half an inch of snow melt off in a few hours due to evaporation and sunshine.....even when the temps are in the 20's

Lol.
I just got a Letter and Olathe North wants me to be there Meterlogist at there school. Apparntly Dr. Alls daughter mrs. Epps wants me to be at the school 2morrow and get a tour. Im just a freshman yet im still getting affors from the Olathe District. Just to show that even at 15 you can still get paid to do the weather

chfs327 i hope ur rite!!!!

i think it wood be AMAZING if there was a 12 inch snowstorm here in leawood... lol and i believe u were curious which "bloggers" here were teens, well im 15 here, and i LOVE weather, lol i suppose u could call it an obsession so to speak

lol but i really wish that we got over 3 inches in at least one of our storms, and GARY I CANT WAIT ANY LONGER ON THAT FORECAST!!!!

IM GOING INSAANE... lol  but ya im also excited over the possibility of a good severe weather season, considering the fact that we have already had the deadliest tornado outbreak in over 20 years, pretty intense stuff...

I cant wait for the new long range forcast!!!!

Thanks Nick and Supercell, that makes perfect sense. Stay warm out there!!!

Gary...here's a challenge....rather than offering a 3-degree warranty, how about a 3 day advance 7 degree warranty?  Nobody else in the industry is doing this and it seems like the technology has gotten to a point where the next day 3-degree warranty is getting boring.  Bet the other guys couldn't get close to a 7-degree 3-day warranty.....how about it....feel like a challenge???

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It's not a bad idea.  We will think about it.

Gary

Yes, think warm thoughts everyone.

Gary:

Good late evening to you sir!! Currently we are sitting at 17 degrees under clear skies. Well, it has finally happened-work has caught up with me!!! I am so buried right now that I am looking up and my basement is almost 50 miles above me LOL!!! Looks like for real this time my hobby must take a back seat…well, ok maybe the passenger seat LOL!!

A couple musing about the next 3-4 days-I am really going out of my comfort zone with this but here it goes-man that limb is making a huge crack!!! LOL

1.  I really wonder if the models really know what to do with this storm diving in from the NW-looking at the 0z GFS, there are so many elements that if one of them is modeled wrong, the whole out put is out of kilter.


2. The first element is that we currently have an upper level low developing just to our south (I think there is??) which is going to slam the east coast with rain but it is also acting as a block allowing the Upper Level Low in the West to really dig and sit there. Of course if I am remembering correctly, 3 days ago, the models did not even sniff this low developing to our South.

3.  The pretty strong push of cold air Thursday night and Friday morning-will it be that strong and if it is, would it not possibly force a piece of energy to form along it??


4.  If that ULL is going to sit there I wonder if some pieces of it will not eject out especially with that cold surge creating quite the temperature gradient

5.  Why is it getting cut off and why is it so far South? I guess the main question is why is it getting off-if it does get cut off then it will drift around aimlessly as those often do. But even that, why is to diving so far south? Is it the arctic high that the GFS modeled at 1041 MB? Is it that the ULL sitting up over western Quebec? Is it the ULL on the East Coast? I am just trying to think why it is doing what it is doing and in doing so wondering if the GFS is missing something here.

6.  The Euro: this past weekend, the Euro for about 4 runs had this come out and form a decent storm in our area-especially the 12Z Saturday. Then it  took this south as well like the GFS. However, on the 12Z today it does not cut this off and while it takes it south it then shoots it like a pin ball strait north from say Dallas to about Springfield. While that in and of itself does not make sense really, I wonder if the Euro is not honing in on something different.


7.  My main idea with all of this, is that I think (think being the huge caveat here!!)  Thursday-Saturday is far from settled and wonder what tomorrow’s runs will show (or if I will even get a chance to look at them LOL!!)

Ok, I’ve went off the deep end and I swear I am truly not trying to make something happen here-it will be what it will be. However, I have wondered since Sunday why this low is going that far south and why is it getting cut off. I just wonder if there aren’t so many factors right now that if one of them is modeled wrong all that follows is way off. I am probably sitting in Strong Hall trying to watch a game in Allen Field House with these ideas but they are just a few things I have been thinking about!!! Just seems there are so many players on the field this week that if one of them runs a slant instead of a post the whole play is whacked out. Does any of the even make sense???? LOL

Have a great night and as always thanks for reading!!!! I will hopefully get to check in tomorrow while I am looking up at my basement floor!!!! LOL

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Good ideas.  It is amazing how this energy dives in and barely affects us at all.  All we need this storm to do is act like this last one and suddenly not dig as much.  But, there are no indications, yet, of this happening.  But, could one piece break off?

Gary

i think that the models are wrong. go bill in L

I was just snooping around and I decided to look up the Great Blizzard of 1899 again, MAN the events almost seem fake, but they are not, wikipedia has some good info on it, ( I know wikipedia is not always the best when it comes to information) but I've known about this weather event for a long time as I have a weather book somewhere that references this same weather event and has the similar information, wow Blizzard conditions were reported in Florida and Tallahassee, Florida got down to minus 2 degrees, I can't even imagine what this blog would be like if that happened today I mean they had thirty below temps in Tennessee for crying out loud!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nick, my favorite is on March 13, 1888.  The forecast for New York City was partly cloudy.  That "partly cloudy" dropped over 50 inches of snow in that event.

Chiefs, it's not probable that a blizzard would drop just 12 inches of snow.  It's a sustained wind and snow event for several hours.  When areas receive a blizzard warning, they're getting a pretty significant snowstorm.