NBC Action Communities

Gary:

Good chilly morning to you sir!!! Currently sitting at 16 degrees this morning under clear skies-we have not made it above 25 degrees since Saturday evening-as Bill Pullman said in Independence Day: Not bad-not to bad at all!!!!!

Thanks so much for the response to my Blog last night-it is such a mish-mash of ideas that the term loosely organized is being generous LOL

My main point was that my little hobbyist mind was thinking it strange that the models were cutting this off, having it dive so far south and having it spin out there for almost 48 hours before it finally comes out. I guess that the developing storm on the East Coast and that strong Upper Level Low in Quebec is kind of clogging up the flow a little bit?? Both the Euro and GFS do this and have had this solution for 4 days now so the evidence is kind of smacking me right in the forehead despite my questions LOL

One other little random observation: both Euro and GFS do indeed bring this out Sunday/Monday-the 0Z Euro today, if I am looking at it correctly (a big If LOL) is a little more organized and brings it much further North Sunday night into Monday than does the 0Z or 06Z GFS but in both the cold air is gonno until it passes by.

Well, one thing for sure, it will be fun and interesting to track!! Time to get the fishing poles and go fishing again like last weekend-we may not catch a thing, but as has been the case all winter, the fishing will be good even if they aren't biting!!!!

Have a great day and as always thanks for providing such a great place to discuss and learn about the weather!!! I am still and will be for some time looking up at my basement due to work so hopefully I will get a chance to look at a few model runs!!! (I think I know how that will turn out!! LOL)

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Yeah, this is ridiculous.  The last storm was forecast to split and dig in to our west too, but it didn't and we ended up in the wrong spot, which made it frustrating as there was no reason for us to be in absolutely the wrong spot.  Let's see how this one looks on the new data, but I am beginning to lose hope.

Gary

Can't wait to hear your 45 day forecast! I had one question though. Just a question. What if the storm did go south and kick out the other storm. What would that major winter storm be like? And where would these two storms phase together if they do? right over the top of us. Would this make it a BIG eastern storm? Thanks for all your work. See ya soon.

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If they phased together over Kansas, rather than near the Mississippi River then we would have a significant storm.  The last time through the cycle this happened.  Let's see how it looks with the new data. 

Gary

10 degrees in Platte City this morning.  I think the 3-4 inches of snow still in some of the yards in our little valley is playing a role...not to brag.

What does your theory say these storms should do?

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Notes,

Remember when we had our discussion in late December after the series of four storm systems.  There were three additional storms.  You wondered where were these storms #5, 6, and 7 in November? And, I showed that they existed but they tracked due north of us near the US/Canadian border.  Then, in December they tracked deep down into the southwest and across us.  This is why I hinted at storms #5, 6, and 7 being somewhat less certain than the series of storms that we experienced recently.  Well, this time it is sort of a combination of the late October/November version and the late December version.  These storms are repeating, but the LRC will only help a little bit when we get within 48 of one of these hitting.  But, on the bigger features, the series of four storms for example, the LRC does help more on the short range.  So, just looking at this part of the pattern the last two time through the cycle may or may not help me in forecasting what will happen today, or tomorrow.  That skill comes down to your forecasting ability and my forecasting ability.  If the LRC helps, then we get an advantage, but if it doesn't it doesn't give us a disadvantage, we just have to revert to our forecasting skill.

There are many advantages to knowing about and using the LRC and we will talk about how the theory is actually useful later today. 

Gary

Hi Gary, Is that the Phased Array Radar?? I read somewhere that the NWS was adapting the military's radar to weather. It can focus in one spot not sweep.

Kelly

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Kelly,

It is the new CASA radar network being developed.

Gary

Here's an example of the LRC paying off on a personal level.  A while back I had made plans to go to St. Louis Mon-Tues but I cancelled those plans a few weeks ago when your theory indicated a storm a'brewing for those days.  KC didn't get the storm, but you saved me the misery of driving into the snow/sleet/ice that St. Louis got.  Thanks!!  For winter travel especially, knowing a storm is possible somewhere in the area is a huge help.

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Exactly, and a very good point.  This is one use for it, as the same specific thing will most likely not happen at a given spot, but the many storms in the cycle will produce, and right on shedule in the region.  Thanks for the great observation.

Gary

Gary, did you really answer Note's question?

I have seen these types of storms before in past cycles, but these are appearing to be out of phase.  

I am having a very hard time now equating these storms to any type of upper air flow within even 7 days of the current cycle duration to the past ones.

I just can't trust the models right now as it doesn't seem like this is what should be happening.  It is too late.  What the models show would have been more consistent in happening about 10 days ago, not now.

And because it is coming 10 days to late - I cannot and will not stretch the current cycle to make it fit.

Another reason for me to stick to the surface, much less confusion and ambiguity.

This said, Vday still looks like a "storm day", though weak as thought.  As the ULL kicks out, its funny to watch the models try to handle it.  I don't think it will stay as far south, and don't think the northern stream will squash it as much as it shows...

I will expect more of a blended view with a bit more phasing potential for around the 18-20th.  That would be more consistent with the morphing pattern we are in now as we continue to go to more zonal.   It does look to bring a bit of cold air behind it...

It does look like a nice warm up after this last bit of cold air for this part of the cycle...

deja vu.  Seems like I have seen this forecast somewhere before?

LOL

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Scott,

Well, I see it differently.  Everything is very close to being right on schedule.  We will discuss this in my forecast later today.  It is something that is taking hours to put together, and days of analysis.  So, please be nice and realize how much effort went into this.  I hope we don't leave you frustrated and disappointed.  LOL

Gary

Gary, I know your busy and if you have time please answer........ Im fishing in a bass tournament the weekend of April 26th about 60 miles west of Ft.Woth, Texas. What is the LRC saying it should be like in those parts. Thanks for your time... MT

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MT,

When we issue the forecast later today, try to use what we have to say to project to your target date.  I haven't looked that far yet, but what we have to say today will help at least a little bit.

Gary

O.K., look on the bright side, both models, the GFS and NAM, still through us a bone and give us at least some flurries if not a decent snow shower or two with a nice gusty push of cold air coming through!!  As for the vort digging into the west the NAM MAYBE looks to bring it closer the the K.C. area and it is a bit closer to a "storm" solution for the area, not there yet but closer anyway, maybe if we all yell and tell that energy to "HANG ON" it won't get lost in the south west U.S., to bad vorts can't be afraid of scorpions, LOL;)

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Nick,

I would love for this storm to just not close off and come out.  Sometimes this happens and all of the models end up wrong, but I don't see any evidence yet.  And, by the way.  I would say the ball dropped in St. Joseph's slot this year, but not necessarily Kansas City's or south.  So, this provides even more hope to really have a trough west of us next year.

Gary

Gary,
Are you by any Chance talking about the new Multi-function Phased Array Radar (MPAR) systems that is going to replace the doplar radar? I've heard a lot about the capabilities of this new radar system.  It seems to be impressive!!! According to the LRC it suggests a warm part of the pattern, buy my question is whether or not it will get cold enough to snow later on.  Do you see the viewing area getting snow in march?  Do you think it will turn cold enough by then.  I remember  you told me about KC having the largest snowfall in history in March, so I know it is not out of the question.  This next storm looks interesting, that is for sure.

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John,

I do think it will snow in March.  We will talk about it in the blog later today.  And, I am talking about the CASA radar system.

Gary

Gary, certainly I appreciate the time and effort put into your entries.  Doing it myself, I have pulled my hair out at times trying to get a monster blog entry done.

That said, kudos in advance for your efforts.  

So, just as you do for me...the ideas put forth are certainly open for critique and accolades.  You know I will focus clearly on the ideas and not the person.  ;-)

I hope and pray in your analysis later, we get specific storm dates or more details on the behaviors of the storm as they relate to this region.  Not in Canada, or in vague terms in the US somewhere.  I don't want to see "we will have 3 storms in this three week window".  I would like to see dates, characteristics of the storm, and maybe even rough precip amounts.  

Maybe my standards are too high for this.

I think if you can bring it to this level, then the LRC can be judged objectively.  Until this time, it will always be a debate of not enough detail to substantiate any claims.  

I would love this to be proven.

Again..my general disclosure - I agree with the cycle, it is how it is measured and communicated that I typically will critique.  The same applies to my methods as well, so it seems to be fair game.

I think ultimately, is it really critical to prove out the LRC to others if you find value in it?  You claim it helps put you ahead of others in accuracy...maybe this is enough itself?

Dunno...it is a great tool..but what is the best way to show it?

Gary,

I am really looking foward to your weather segment on the new radar technology.  I know that we all enjoy the stormier weather, but we must keep in mind just how deadly Tornadoes still can be, even with the current technology available to meteorologists.  

My cousin almost lost everything in the Franklin KS F-4 tornado several years ago.  I saw the damage and devistation first hand, and there really are no words to describe it.  

I am looking foward to your comments on the LRC and how it will fit into the severe weather pattern this Spring.  

Don  

Is the CASA System anything like the MPAR system?  Is it a new regional system Or is it for your station only?

Is the CASA System anything like the MPAR system?  Is it a new regional system Or is it for your station only? If so you always get the coolest tools for forecasting :)

I'm excited for the new weather pattern to be posted! :)
I'm hoping for warm weather soon!

Did MTongate really just ask Gary what was going to be happening on 4/26? The local forecasts rarely get the next couple days correct. Even with the vaunted LRC, how in the heck can you expect to know what is going to happen in 2 and a half months?

Gary, looking forward to your prediction of Spring tonight! Keep up the good work.

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Thanks and your point is very important.  We have a hard time getting day one within 3 degrees, day 3 could be way off, so April 26th?  But, the LRC can help in showing what may happen within a couple of days of that day, and it would be better than climatology. 

Gary

Jayhawk Don-
I too saw all the damage from that F-4 tornado in Franklin. My brother in law and his family live in Girard, KS.....that damage was incredible to see. Even to this day you can tell by looking at the tree's where it went and what area's got hit.
Monica
Pleasanton KS

I'm hoping for some sort of snow tomorrow even if it is light flurries.  Tomorrow is my birthday.  I grew up in Texas and all I wanted for my birthday was for it to snow.  You can guess how long I've been wanting that!!  It looks like my wish may finally come true after all!!!  Here's to hoping and wishing!!

It's a nationwide system...local TV stations don't have the $$ to spend developing new radar technology! "CASA, the center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere, is a prestigious National Science Foundation Engineering Center with over $40 million in federal, university, industry, and state funding."

Here's a good link for CASA....

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s2097.htm

well, it looks interesting, I thought it involved the new radar technology. That is a good link, I checked it out.  

It is new information processing technology more than new radar technology, I guess.

LSGOLFER>>>>>>. Thanks for the link very informative.

Can't wait to see the battle royal between Scott and Gary later on when we get the new long range forecast from Gary. Everyone get your popcorn ready it ought to be good.........LOL

The 48 hour map here looks interesting for the Kansas City metro:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/progs/index.php?prog=48

Gary, your thoughts? Thanks!

Bob

I don't expect a battle.  I am sure that Gary is doing the best with his forecast that he can, and has listened intently as to what each of us has suggested.

If it seems vague, then that is the best he can do.  If it is very detailed, then that too is the best he can do.

The forecast itself will make the dicussion predictable.  Only Gary knows right now if chaos will ensue.

The only thoughts I have right now is that I believe that the LRC can be used to more detail than what is currently provided.  Additionally, I am not sure how much can really be proven from the last 45 day forecast since it was vague - in my opinion.

But...knowing the LRC and knowing many of its nuances, I think the forecast was very good...but it would be hard for everyone to know that without knowing all the other intricit facets of its existance.

Besides, if there are fireworks, it won't likely be until tomorrow if it did happen as I may not have time tonight, or I may just email my thoughts instead if too controversal.

Don't know..what do you all think?

LOL

Scott,
Just post your thoughts here in the blog...  It will be interesting to see how things compare.  I really like the serious discussions regarding the LRC and people's thoughts on it.  

Kristi

Gary,
Looking forward to the 45-day forecast. :)

Kristi

Interesting RAP.  We will have decent lift and fronto for this, but where will the moisture come from?  I don't see much available, but with the lift - it will squeeze out every bit it can.

I am not sold on what the RAP shows...I am not even sure it will be snow.  It will be marginal at the 850 level.  Also, I see how a 850 low wants to come through.  I think it would be at this time just after passage that it could snow.

All said,  there is not enough QPF for this to really even worry about at this point..yes, might be a small storm..but nothing that would produce over .25 in.

;-)

Hey weathercop all I was asking was what will the weather pattern be around that time frame. If you can do better let me know!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  I realize you cannot pinpoint one certain day.

SCOTT>>>>>>>>>> My comments about a battle royal was not meant to be a negative. Being new to this I find it usefull that you and NOTES give informative opinions on the LRC and its validity. I like to read and learn like most on here.

Scott, I think any banter between you and Gary is about as well thought out on both sides as you will get in a forum like this.  I will say I agree that the LRC should be used to be more exacting in long range forecasting if it is to ever be a viable tool in the broader meterological community and I think it is headed in that direction. However someone in Gary's position as a broadcaster has limitations built in to what he can do and say on the air. The station he works for has a license to broadcast and part of that licensing is to serve the public interest. Part of that agreement  between Gary's employers and the government is to pass along information provided by other government agencies (NWS and others) or they will stand the risk of losing thier license. He is bound by law to say "Winter Storm Warning" or what ever the NWS issues. He may also be under presure from those in charge to at least give the possibility that the storm could be a bad one for the metro despite what the LRC is showing. I think the last storm may be a great example of this in play. On the 6pm newscast Gary had the 6-10 snowfall over the KC Metro even though the LRC says a northern track will be the ultimate solution. I thought at the time he was mentioning the storm tracking over the metro that it wouldn't only because they haven't all year and I just didn't see it on the satelite and water vapor movies and posted that on this blog that I thought he was going way out on a limb. Even the radar returns out of Dodge City and Wichita gave clues that the storm would miss us north. That's because I do believe in the LRC or at least as much as I know about it even though I think the pattern transitions in September. I wish he would have been right because I like a really good snow as much as the next weather geek.  

Yep it will be great day when 45 days out we can say it will rain,snow or whatever on this date but it will take more than one man and a lot more research before everyone buys into the program and It will take those in charge to buy into it before it becomes the standard for the forecasters.

Just my rambling thoughts

Kelly

we all have always hoped and wanted these last storms to go north...but they never really end up doing so....Just like Gary Brenner said...the storms are going to start tracking south of us now.

I will be watching at 6 Gary, and hoping for that 6 incher!

Mods you might want to rephrase that last entry by Brent

I still "pratice law" after over twenty years;  Gary is getting into science and theory, deep stuff that requires years of study, acceptance by ones piers, independent verification just to name a few.  But it is a legit theory.

Scott with the warmer temps and southwest flow I can see .30-.45 moisture and a small low develop on Thursday.

Brent,
Who is Gary Brenner?? Isn't our own Gary L. the only one you should be paying attention to ?

"heavysnow said:
Mods you might want to rephrase that last entry by Brent"

why is this?.....

"Who is Gary Brenner??''

he blogs here sometimes....he puts out long range forecasts...and he said that most of the storm systems would start tracking south of us now... ************* Brent, If possible just refer to him as his screen name...GaryB Thanks, Jeremy

"Isn't our own Gary L. the only one you should be paying attention to ? "

you can choose to listen to whom you want. I shall do the same.

this does not mean I don't listen to Gary L

At least there is a chance for a snow storm...

Brent,
"Isn't our own Gary L. the only one you should be paying attention to ? "

Sorry...I wasn't meaning to be negative or hurtful...it was said with "tongue in cheek"..should have added LOL  ;)

I sure hope you get your 6" snow! (I would like to get more myself!)
I get a real kick out of your blogs. You have given me some good laughs. You are one passionate kid about snow. ALMOST as passionate as Gary!

I hope this holds up and it is cold when it happens.

I see no cold air at all on the 12Z GFS and only one snow opportunity. I am assuming we are now into the boring part of the pattern with the cold air possibly returning by early March.

It was a cold 4 degrees this morning here Marceline!!

KellyofIndependence - Great post.  I have more thoughts than time on this topic.  I would love to see Gary/Jeremy weigh in on this one.

I might pick this as a post topic for my own blog.

the latest euro and gfs do bring this storm further north this weekend the nws discussion also agrees it will be interesting to track as Bill in lawrence mentioned in his comment earlier.

thanks Ethalo, I didn't mean to come off as rude either...sorry.
I am not really a kid anymore...but its ok for people to call me that...lol

I certainly act like one sometimes

Rofl

Rodger Clemens is lying.

Does that have anything to do with the weather Pats

So what's the latest models showing? Any measureable snow for us snow deprived southerners?

there saying an inch right now. That could change ************** Just to be clear I watched the 6pm show and Gary did not say 1" of snow on Thursday. If you have questions about his snow total just ask. Jeremy