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Here we go again...Maybe this will finally be our turn.....Maybe..

Matt..

dont you just love how they get your hopes up, not gonna happen to many have missed us

Two words

Dry Slot

hey chfs, have you ever thought about being a motivational speaker?

Two words

Big Rainstorm

I am not making any predictions about the storm this weekend.  I am going to wait and see what happens.

Kristi

Cwebb. No but I am to my friends.

I dont see nothing but a rainstorm and all the good stuff going east

Just think if it was cold enough to snow the whole snow!!! WOW. I would never complain about storms missing us snow deprived southerners again!!!

I guess a little rain wont hurt, just wish is was white!

According to the LRC, look out St.joe,Atchinson,Topeka,Lawerence  another storm is headed your way and another 1-2 incher for us in the metro....although mt knee has been hurting since yesterday.  It hasn't bothered me once this winter season.  HMMMMMM
We will see if the LRC or my knee wins out for snow here in Independence.
Is that scientific enough for ya

Wow, i meant the whole storm, not the whole snow!

Not gonna comment anymore till ten unless questions or comments are made about me. I see this thing being to warm for snow and to cold for rain. FRZ Rain and Sleet. Thats it

This storm is sliding into its long term longwave.  I mentioned a day or two ago that it would lift north from where the GFS was putting it.  Also, I mentioned the potential phasing.

Regardless of the semantics or theory discussion, there are elements of the LRC/P that are very sound.  This aspect is one of them. We will keep working on the other parts.

Nice hint about maybe just east of us Gary..that would fit as well.

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Scott,

If you knew, then why didn't you tell me yesterday.

Gary

I'm good with a nice rainstorm. We lived in Salina, KS from 1997-2004 5 out of the 7 were drought years.  So all this rain this past fall and winter are great! Don't get me wrong, I LOVE a good snow, but I'll never forget the pain of being a storm lover and for 5 long years hardly seeing any rain OR snow! So, NAM and GFS, show me the moisture in whatever form! Janet

  Good Evening Gary, So is there a chance of anything tonight other than few flurries? Look like more snow Saturday :(

SCOTT>>>>>> Will this weekend bring us snow, rain, or mixture

CHFS327>>>> we all no what u will say

Scott and Notes very good additions to the previous blog entry. Since I am no way on that kind of level would you all say that you guys and Gary are more in agreement on a cycle or pattern or whatever you want to call it. I think that if all 3 of you worked together and met on some points that you all might have something.......Anyway just some more rambling thoughts

Well time will tell and things will change by 10:00 tonite and again by 10:00pm Friday and then Sat morning we will get a better grasp on things . . . . one thing to keep in mind cold air; snow or no snow on the ground has stayed longer than forcasted all winter. . . this argument was out on the 22 Deember storm if it was going to be cold enough. . . this week's cold spell lasted longer and was more intense than initially thought. . . now tonite I have a chance to go to 0 yesterday it was 7 so if the cold hangs tough like it has been just maybe we will all get a nice blanket of WHITE. . . GOD BLESS from God's Country up north!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p36_084s.gif

Theres the storm.

Most we can see out of this type of setup is 2.5"

Lots of rain with a dusting of snow into Sunday morning. I am just hoping that the cold air plays nice and doesn't give us a bad ice storm. Come on 34°, not 29°.

Fitting that it would form just to the east of us.  Areas 100 miles north, west and south of KC have had substantial snow storms (more than one) this year.  Only need 100 miles east to get slammed and the DONUT HOLE theory is confirmed!!

All of you bloggers are in trouble now. The darn lamp went out in the HD TV so I have a lot of time on my hands...LOL

In regards to the LRC>>>>>> Could a cycle not exist and still be off by a couple of days. There are all kinds of varations that could hold up a storm or move one a little quicker.

If lets say a volcano erupts Mt. St. Helens lets say and all that ash and dust gets into the jetstream and makes us have less sunshine a couple days or something like that would that not effect the cycle somewhat. It may make us cooler for a couple of days and then people would say you said it was going to be in the 60's and it wasn't it was only in the 40's.

Like I said in previous blog to be able to say on March 24 2008 we will have sun and 68 degrees is crazy no one could predict that. However if you say between March 22 and March 26 we will have temps in the 60's and no big storm why wouldn't that be considered a pretty darn good forecast if it happens that way.

I hope you all do not get frustrated with me and my rambling thoughts but just trying to understand...THANKS

I hate to say this, but there's always a spot in the donut missing... :-)

http://imdb.com/media/rm936415232/tt0462538

KELLEYOF INDEPENDENCE>>>>>> Funny you mention that about your knee. I am here in Indep as well and my back started bothering me last night. After 3 major back surgeries and enough metal to build a volkswagon I think we might be on to something. We can call it the INB therory for Independence Knee & Back theory...LOL..........

KELLEYOF INDEPENDENCE>>>>>> Funny you mention that about your knee. I am here in Indep as well and my back started bothering me last night. After 3 major back surgeries and enough metal to build a volkswagon I think we might be on to something. We can call it the INB therory for Independence Knee & Back theory...LOL..........

LOL... yeah... but no matter what part is missing... the HOLE is still there...

LOL sports... but wouldn't that make it the IKB???  

WEATHERFREAK>>>>>>>>>> Good point the IKB theory

Probabily. So ok

"The NAM produces over 2 inches of rain in Kansas City Saturday night. "

wow! what will the temp be during all that precip?
any chance of an ice storm?

I fixed the map to show what will really happen:

http://img164.imageshack.us/my.php?image=namp36084sbl6.gif

No rain!!! not in the winter!! I've already had 2 storms with 1.5 or more inches of rain this winter! I want snow!

My wife is flying to TX on Sunday evening. Here's hoping for good weather...

No snow, no ice, all rain!

Chris, that was pretty funny!  I would believe it even more if it was a snowfall map!

hahaha chris, aint it the truth, u may need to move it farther south though, brent i dont think its gonna be ice, but mostly rain. i feel for ya though, tooo much rain for winter

any chance of an ice storm?

Yes. Move along. Since no 1 has to think about my openion. Ice ice Baby

LOL. You all have me laughing so hard!
cwebb and her chfs327 comment...very true
f00dl3 and the donut, priceless!
Kristy, for always being the smart one and "waiting to see what happens"
Thank you everyone, I needed some humor, I have had a crap day!

Hopefully we will maybe have some chubby rain? lol I hope someone gets the joke.

"Scott,

If you knew, then why didn't you tell me yesterday.

Gary"

Gary..I did tell you yesterday...check the blog.

"I will expect more of a blended view with a bit more phasing potential for around the 18-20th.  That would be more consistent with the morphing pattern we are in now as we continue to go to more zonal.   It does look to bring a bit of cold air behind it... "

I was two days off.  Not a week or more.

;-)

LOL

If you want to take it further, I told you and anyone who read it this mid January on my blog.

January 13th

"Expect to see a front on the 14th bringing light precipitation in the area. Expect roughly .25 in of liquid. Likely this will be snow, but I am not ruling out light rain as well. Following this storm, look for something on the 18th/20th. This could bring more of a mix to snow with amounts of liquid precipitation being up to a quarter inch. This storm will bring another push of Canadian air dropping us again under average temperatures."

http://kcwx.blogspot.com/2008/01/long-range-forecast-based-on-surface.html

We are getting the front..right on time.  Forecasted a month ago.  We may indeed get some light moisture.

I had the 18/20th for the upcoming Sat storm.  I was about 2 days off...from about 60 days in advance.  It looks to go from rain, mix, to possible snow.  Hmmm.

This is the level of detail I think you can get to with the LRC.  But - I understand why you do not.

;-)  Maybe this best states my point beyond discussion of the LRC itself.

adogg, I would like to see some of that there "chubby rain"! The kind that keeps getting chubbier til it explodes!

yeah, but i dont think u know where i got that from, hint movie

hahahaha...60 days..how about 30 days.  I should proofread more before I post.  LOL

wasnt it the bowfinger or something

adogg, I have no life except college, I watch a lot of movies, lol

has no one in here seen bowfinger?

"Chris said:
I fixed the map to show what will really happen: "

LOL Chris, that's awesome!!!!!!

Im glad somebody got it

Oh I got it Adogg...The alien movie thing with the chick that talks funny...

chick that talks funny? I think you gots your movies mixed up

no, I have the right movie...I got the darn thing from a friend for my bday a while back...don't know why, I didnt ask for it.

I think us ppl in south KC will get some good rain Sat night! rather have that than snow. I really am ready for warm weather!

haha, thats i great present!!!!!!

yeah adogg, since I like weather and the med field, what was someone trying to tell me?

hehehe ************ If possible...when discussing movies or stuff like that in the blog please use the PM option. You don't have to leave the blog and then reserves the comments section for the weather chat. Thanks. Jeremy

I
c
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N     I
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Just Snow!!
:-)

Is'nt amazing from today until the end of the month we gain 37 mins. of daylight. More daylight = more sun = more warmth = SPRING BABY! With that said if April is anything like last year (when the Easter eggs froze solid) I will completely ignore anymore talk of, dare I say it, glo... wa..... ! There I did'nt even say it. If I'm not mistaken pitchers and catchers reported today, another sure sign of spring!

Hey everybody, are the models showing rain or snow? Could we be talking about an ice storm?

I think mostly rain with some snow possible sun

that image was awesome Chris! That's exactly right. I wonder if the storms can sense our greater metropolitan area? "Hey slow down it's kansas city they're not on the list for this storm! Pick it up again just north of here." If storms could talk. lmao

All rain.

I can almost garuntee that most of the precipitation on the QPF will be rain, and the snow will be well to our SE or NW. That's my guess on what's going to happen for us in OP and Olathe.

I strongly believe that back end of the storm will bring significant amounts of snow somewhere in the viewing area. As you can see on the models, when the back side comes through, we will be below freezing.

These wetter more spring like storms have the ability to bring rain and then heavy wet snow.  If the Warm Air Advection tends to open us up to Gulf Moisture, and the warm air doesn't meet with frontalgeneious forcing south of us which would create a more likely area for higher amounts of precipitation to fall to our south,then we could see a fair amount of rain on Saturday night, pre-dawn Sunday before the change over.  Back in the little ice age that was the late 70's to about 1985, I saw a lot of these storms phase like this one could.  It wasn't unusual to get a 3/4 inch rain followed by a 8-10 inch snow.  Again I was living in Southeast Missouri at the time but I remember in early March of '78 having snow drifts over the top of my mom's old Pontiac LaManns.  If you like snow like I do, keep your fingers crossed that the two pieces of this puzzle will phase down around Iola, Kansas and make a bee line for Lake of the Ozarks.  That should put us in a favorable position for some real snowfall, even down here in Northern Bates county where we've only had about 5 inches all winter.    

no ice some nice rain with possible change over sunday before ending some accumulations look possible on the north side this is not a whopper tho lol.

If I have to see one more major rain maker storm I am going to throw up.

Anyone who says this next storm will be all rain will be silenced!!! ;)

I really hope that it will be cold enough for snow

that back end of the storm NEVER produces significant amounts of snow for the metro. It is the beginning that dumps snow...and it looks like it will be rain dang it...

sigh*.....

well Brent,it may not dump significant snow in the metro, but it certainly could dump significant snow somewhere, How do we know it wont be in KC?

Stupid question.  I like to read what you guys write, it is fun.  But why does the fun weather always go around the KC metro?  I once heard that KC was in a hole and that was the cause.  Is that true?  

brent, im with you!!! Us southerners are way over due!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rain

I do not want anymore rain - Grand River is just now starting to drop and if we get more rain, I am going to have to drive 20 miles out of the way to get to work! grrr! Stormchaser, you are right - we do need more snow here in northern Bates County, but NO MORE RAIN!

I wonder if there has ever been any research done about how often good snows do occur in Kansas City. Honestly - it seems that after living in one location for over 15 years, the chances of seeing softball size hail are equal to or larger than the chance of seeing a 1 foot snow, and the chances of having an F4 or F5 tornado in the metro area is much, MUCH greater than the chances of there being a 2 foot snow.

Gary,

Did you happen to take any math at OU?

METAR KMCI 142353Z 36015G20KT 4SM HZ OVC014 M03/M07 A3005 RMK AO2 SLP182 T10331067 10117 21033 51060

10117 = High Temp 11.7C = 53F

Nice forecast, yes. "We were the only ones to hit it on the nose"....ummm, maybe if you follow the fuzzy math policy of George Bush.

I find it interesting that you missed the 3 degree guarantee last night, but didn't show the contest or pick a winner. Of course, if you can't even decode a METAR (or check the climate summary), then one has to wonder just how flawed this contest is. No wonder I never win :(

This weekend's storm -- oh well, I'll be in Denver. General rule of thumb in these southern stream systems. Warm advection waits for no one.

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I didn't show it, but I spent 30 seconds talking about how we missed it by 4 degrees.  It isn't that I was hiding anything!  Keep in mind a name is only entered into the contest when we are within 3.  Hope this helps.

Gary

f00dl3 - you may just be right. Check it out:

http://tinyurl.com/2tdt99

Ok ok, how about 60 and SUN!

KCwxforecaster ... since you are obviously so intelligent, please clue the rest of us pea-brains into the meaning of "warm advection waits for no one."

 

f00dl3 wrote:
>I wonder if there has ever been any research done about how often good snows >do occur in Kansas City. Honestly - it seems that after living in one location for >over 15 years, the chances of seeing softball size hail are equal to or larger than >the chance of seeing a 1 foot snow, and the chances of having an F4 or F5 >tornado in the metro area is much, MUCH greater than the chances of there being >a 2 foot snow.

You are actually surprisingly close to correct with this tongue-in-cheek climate answer. If I recall, the NWS makes exactly this point with a story that used to be on their website. In a nutshell, climatology favors two groupings of snow tracks...on that blankets Nebraska/Iowa...clipping far nothern Missouri. The other southern track favors the Ozarks. It's an extremely anomolous event to bring the Metro a widespread 6 inch event, nevermind 12 or the unheard of 2 footer. Even a 6 inch event barely averages one per winter season for the KC area.

The reason for this is two parts. First, our winter systems are generally moving too quickly to get enough hours of moderate/heavy snow to produce those accumulations. Secondly, events with copious Gulf of Mexico moisture are often accompanied by warm air aloft as well -- resulting in our many ice/sleet events.

RickMckc...finally someone realizes my superior intelligence.

In our region, models are biased in two areas.
1.) Warm advection precipitation *always* begins faster than any of the model suite predicts. Over the last 2 weeks, this was observed 5 times, with an average of 6 hours error -- the worst of which was the 33 degree thunderstorm deluge last week.

2.) Models are biased too cold with model level temperatures in situations involving a tight thermal gradient and a low level jet driving up from the Gulf region. As a result, such events with mid level temperatures near freezing often end up as freezing rain, sleet or even plain rain as opposed to the snow projected by the computer model.

More info on model biases can be found at NCEPs website -- or through years of experience.

Thank-you KCwxforecaster. Your intelligence has always been very apparent.

Are we to interpret your explanation as a forecast that the upcoming event will be predominantly rain?

Gary:

Is this storm going to be a bit too far south of Marceline Missouri, or could we get a good bit of precip either frz rain/rain/snow...Will you have a precip forcast tomorrow???????

Thank you....BTW, I liked your long range forcast...very very interesting and active!!!!

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Yes, active is the word! 

Gary

Gary you should see if you could visit Marceline high school...that would be awesome!!!!...It would be really cool to meet the greatest meteorologist in the country....I would love to hear about the LRC and stuff

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My schedule is so booked up, but maybe sometime in the next year we can schedule a visit to Marceline!

Gary

I know a great cure for intelligence.  Let me know when it goes to your head.

**************

I'm confused:)

Jeremy

Sorry...I was talking to KCwxforecaster.

**********

OK...

Hey Sportsfreaked!
"The darn lamp went out in the HD TV so I have a lot of time on my hands...LOL"

Do you have DLP? We have one and I'd like to get input on the bulb. If you don't mind, email me at mtrainor@kc.rr.com? I think Gary and team would prefer this discussion offline. Thanks! - Mike T.

First, I gotta comment about Gary's statement above. WHAT A CROCK! So when you get it right, someone gets entered into the monthly contest? That's fine as a consolation prize. When you get it wrong, that's when you need to be forking out the goods. What's the point of the warranty then? I've checked dozens of other stations across the US that have a guarantee of sorts, and they all donate prizes to a random winner for "beating" the meteorologist when they mess up.

RickMcKC...
Yes, much of the event will be a cold rain for us, if not another heavy rain for many -- especially south. The question remains on the back side as to who gets dry slotted and who gets a few inches of snow on Sunday. Something on this small of scale likely won't be known precisely until late Saturday.

KSuds...
My intelligence go to my head? Last time I checked, that is where my brain is. How about LezakEF5 (what an alias!) calling Gary "the greatest meteorologist in the country". I definitely wouldn't claim tops either LOL, but I could rattle off dozens of names in the public and private sectors, research and academia who would by leaps and bounds exceed that statement. No offense, but while Gary may be one of the best in the KC area, letting school children make these statements and feed the ego beast is a farse. Sure, we all had our favorite TV personality that we wanted to immitate growing up, but some of the stroking on this blog is quite odd, if not a bit far-fetched to the point where it looks like insider posting.

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On our 3-degree warranty, we do it differently than the other stations doing their prizes.  When we get it RIGHT, you win.  So, if we get within 3 degrees we pull out a name and they go into the drawing for a $2,000 gift certificate from Roth Concept Center.  We give away a prize each quarter.  So, at the end of March we will be giving one away.  If your name is entered, then you don't want us to be within 3. If we aren't, then another name isn't entered.  So, it increases your chance of winning. What is wrong with this?  It is a more positive way of doing it. 

And, insider posting?  Remember most people who read the blog don't even read the comments. 

Gary

 

kc...

Not sure where your anger comes from or what your agenda is but it is pretty disrespectful to everyone to come on the blog and hurl insults.  My previous station in Madison did a 4 degree guarantee.  Only when the forecast was outside the range did a name get entered.  Personally I didn't like this because it focuses on the negatives of a forecast.  I like the idea of entering more names into a drawing by picking a name when the forecast is within 3.  If we only entered a name when we missed, then only a handful of people would be in the drawing which use to be monthly.  I don't think any of us claim to be smarter than any other Meteorologist, just better forecasters.

Jeremy

You know, there's a lot of intelligent people out there that don't let it go to their head.  Maybe KCwxforecaster doesn't understand what I mean.  Here, let me spell it out for you:  When you are full of yourself, you are full of...well your intelligent enough to figure out the rest.  Of course I thought you would have picked up on the "cure for intelligence" comment.  I don't think your as intelligent as you think.  Besides, you can talk intelligent all you want, but the most intelligent are never good speakers.  I think your more of a politician than an intelligent being.