NBC Action Communities

Gary this is going to be a complicated storm would you agree. I believe you and the team will get a better handle say tommorrow early afternoon? Good LUck

I want Olathe to get 4 inches

CHFS327>>>>>> Don't lie dude we know you are secretly praying for ice....LOL>>>>>>>

Is there any chance that we can see the bit about the new radars online? I am out of town and would really like to see it.

Thanks,
David

Lol Sports

As of right now my prediction has holded up

1.75 inches of rain and 2.4 inches of snow

OH NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, batten down the hatches, stock up on supplies, gas up the generator (especially if you live near a creek or river) this is going to be the big one...

I will agree with the rain but sure not the snow for south kc, no way.

Olathe might get 4 inches... of rain!

gary when do you see the freezing line coming through sedalia?

what about the winter weather watches north? Will they stay in place if it's shifting a little south?

Olathe might get 4 inches... of rain

Not Likely the 1-2 inch line is right to 2+ inch is right on Olathe

I want some Major Flooding. Since theres a lake at the end of my street and another lake 3 streets down its gonna be fun since those are so flood prown

Gary, are you trying to tease us here in southwest JOCO with that 4"+ graphic?  I know the storm is a long ways away, but we are hoping for the best!!!  Thanks again Gary.

chfs327, you do not have any family responsibility evidently or you would not wish for such horrible things. Wow, to be young with not a care in the world but flooding. Go figure.....

  We gonna get 4+ here in downtown KC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Good Evening Gary:

Excellent update tonight regarding the upcoming weather situation. I am keeping my hopes low on this upcoming storm system, until the event gets closer. One thing for sure, we are going to get a lot of beneficial moisture from this system. That will provide us with an excellent running start into the growing season. Currently I am sitting at 23.8 here at 130th and State Avenue in Kansas City, Kansas. I have noticed that my dewpoint temperature has increased from 8° to 17°. I am assuming that means an increase in available moisture, possibly a sure sign this storm is coming in. Well that’s it for tonight, good luck on the forecast tonight.

Bryan

PS: Another station in town was calling for no snow on the backside of this system, and maybe not as much rainfall. Always amusing!

So how is the GFS looking?

hmmm I'm still in the extremely light area of snow...

2+ inches of rain...that could be snow!!!
that SHOULD be snow!

sheesh.....

   I agree Kellyann, to have  Someone wishing for flooding and ice storms, people lose there life's everything there bad weather like that, basement flooding casue alot of problem's!

Gary,

I live in St. Joseph.  Will any of that rain be in the form of freezing rain?  After the ice storm in Dec, we were out of power for five days.  I want to be prepared this time if I need to.  Thanks!

GFS just starting to comeout

chiefs327, my reference to 4" of rain was "tounge in cheek", why on earth would you wish for a flood?

Need it to wait to get to 48 hrs but as of 36 still showing alot of precip.

Keep us updated Fire Dog.

GFS looking good for snow up north Fire Dog?

GFS shows change over between 42 and 48 hours with at least .25 to .60 at 48 hours to 60 hours not to mention the precip between the 42 to 48 hours with the metro in the .50 to .75 band during that time

Up north is a good place for snow, keep it!

Ok well its up to 48 hrs and its still looking good.  At the 36hr mark still showing good precip with the cold front at out door step and by 42 hr the cold front is though half of the state of MO.  However the GFS is leaning for .25-.50 after the cold front moves through.  Now we need to take in account the NAM which is giving .5-1 of precip in the same time period.  Both are about the same in account of the timeframe of the cold front.  So by taking the precip average for AFTER the cold front your looking at a .5625 or 3-7inches of snow for some.

UM anyone else looking at the GFS hit you refresh.  Mine was at the 60 hr and when i went to refresh /several times/ its back to only showing up to 18.

I've heard this before....the last minute "this is going to be a massive storm!"

then Harrisonville gets a dusting.
its weak.
we won't get anything
don't get your hopes up.
it will all dissolve and fade away.....and you all will be left depressed and sad.....I won't let it happen to me...

we will see a lot of rain. no snow.

I'm only speaking from experience, I've been let down too many times this year....

too many times I've been in the 6 inches area....and too many times I've ended up with a dusting...

we'll be lucky if we see a snow shower.

Brent

Actually Fire Dog, it has us in the .01 to .10 as well.... so .26 to .60 and you have to consider the time between the 42 to 48 hours some of that precip will be the mixing and changing to heavy wet snow.  You could add another .10 to .25 most likely

YES!!!! Marceline is now in the 4+ inch band of snow and the 1-2 inch area of rain...This is an extremely wet storm and very very impressive....Is it possible the snow band may have higher totals and expand in size??? Are you expecting the Winter Storm Watches o move southward???

Is there any chance Olathe gets completely missed by the snow, but has just enough rain to wash everything off? Oh, while we're at it can anybody give me the winning lotto numbers, and the ability to be a scratch golfer?

heavysnow, now im not going to go that far.  That would put the snow totals through the roof.  LOL

WELL im done for the night I'll look at the new data in the morning.  Got fire training in the morning and if we get as much rain as predicted i will most likly be on flood watch tommrow night.  LATER

Fire Dog with this low producing its own cold air plus the position it shows at 36 hours and the cold air right on our door step you have to consider the precip during that time, it has us in .25 to .50 during the 36 to 42 and 42 to 48.  

Weatherstreet.com has the from about Warrensburg northward in a 4-6 inch snow band for sunday

Great info on the new radar technology.    Sounds very promising for the future.   Bet you wished they would give you 2 extra minutes to do the weather tonight  :)

Jeremy will be a busy guy blogging this weekend.   I thought I saw him this morning in the studio while Brett was on location.   Oh well, he has had a long enough break!!   BTW, congrats on your Badger win over the Hoosiers Jeremy the other day.

Gary,
I just got done making 4 inches of heavy wet snow in my front yard. My mom is going to send you the pictures she took later. Since it was around 30 degrees, the snow was heavy and wet. I'm not expecting much here in OP other than rain and some big flakes for a finally, but I'm hoping I can get another day with highs in the 20's.

Just watched "the other" forcast, you all know who...had no snow at all and 65 next Thursday when Gary said 34.  I think we all know who will be right.

Gary: Impressive story on the new Radar system you showed at 10:00. Very interesting concept of using exisiting technology (Cell Towers) and placing hardware benaeath the storm to detect rotation and flash flooding. Thanks for what all of you do!

What is Gary's Email? I need to send him pictures!

----------------

Lezak@nbcactionnews.com

Hey. Im still thinking 1.75 inches of rain and 2.4 inches of snow

Did someone say no snow at all, is that possible?

im just ready for spring i have had enough winter for one year

I want more snow and flooding sunday

Did I hear SPRING!

Gary --- I sure hope you are not getting modelitus.

Im saying a dusting to 1 inch here up north. These storm ALWAYS go poof. I have been in the 6 inch band twice this year and only have gotten 4 inches each time. People dont get your hopes up for snow, its going to be mostly ALL rain. I will be up to check the new data in the morning. I love snow, but I just dont see the temps going below freezing for a very long time during this storm. Goodnight all!

Tyler

well at this point... im pretty much wanting the snow to end... or unless mother nature throws us a curveball and gives us some insane snowstorm during march.... i wouldnt mind that, otherwise all of these little snows might as well be done with.. LOL, i guess im just ready for spring... but it really looks like theres an amazing chance for some flooding!!!

correct me if im wrong but isnt rare for massive amounts of moisture to be pulled up from the gulf in february???

Gary and Jeremy, have you ever seen this many systems where we've had winter warnings on one side and flooding and severe weather warnings along side of then?  It seems that in the past year we've had a bunch of situations where we winter storm warnings right next to severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings.  It's been very interesting, to say the least.

--------------

It has been rather amazing!  And, the next few weeks may have much more.  I am going to be worn out.

Gary

do you think it can be all ice and then snow for north kansas city?

I am more than concerned about the rain amount I might get. With the one inch of rain we got last time it flooded my back yard like a river and even now it is a swamp on the east side of my house. This is going to be ugly. I told my husband he needed to get outside and clean out the gutters and drains for this one...LOL!! Hope this rain even does not start to early for me.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

-----------------

Monica,

We have slipped into a very wet pattern.  Keep us updated with your rainfall total.

Gary

The "other" blog  he says the storms will not phase and their will be NO snow anywhere in the metro.  It also states 50's and 60' all week

I just got home from seeing To Kill A Mockingbird at the KC Rep.  I have missed almost everything going on the last 4 hours or so.  Anyone who is still on here, please fill me in! LOL.

With the new data it looks like Olathe could get 1-2 inches of rain and 3-4 of snow. I believe it about the rain for sure, but with the snow what I've noticed each time this season is that whatever was said FIRSTis what we usually get. By that I mean  it showed Olathe in the 2 inch range for snow at 5pm--that's what I'm going to believe so I don't get all psyched for more! If we get more, then whoo, hoo!

read up  LOL

I have to say that I don't think we are going to get much of any snow out of this storm system.  I think it will rain...but all year long these storms have given the north side the snow.  And another thing I have really noticed is that once the storm gets closer, the models tend to want to put KC in some nice snow.  But in the end, we get missed.  I will NOT get my hopes up what so ever to see more than some flurries from all this.  If we land up getting more than an inch, then yipee.  But all I am going to look forward to is RAIN!  I hope all this changes, but I highly doubt it will.  It will probably just mover farther north.  Just our luck.  I have a feeling there are going to be some very dissapointed people tomorrow...those you think their going to get some nice snow.  NOT me because I'm not getting my hopes up at all!

1.75 inches of rain and 2.4 inches of snow in olathe

So how was Gary's new radar?  I missed it.

The blog is saying that 15 people are on the blog now.  If so, somebody talk please.

hi.. and i just looked at the weather channel and it says the stuff sticks around to early monday morning.... is this even a possibility since i hadnt read or heard anything like that

There was new radar Jacob, just a story on the future of radar technology to be attached to cell towers so it can get more localized and the future ability to have radars talk to each other and all pinpoint on a severe storm at the same time.  

At least thats what I got from it  :)

Hey Sam!  I don't think thats possible, but who know...and plus it is the Weather Channel!  LOL.  I just don't think we will see much snow, how about you?  I live in Lee's Summit.

I meant "no" new radar  

I guess the NWS has no clue on how much snow anybody is going to get.  They have NO forecast snow totals on their website.

i live in olathe...idk i hope for a decent snow but we will see how it shapes out..anyways it looks like its gonna be an exciting day cuz its my BIRTHDAY!!

Happy B-Day Sam!  How old?

im guessing around 3"of snow for kc... maybe a little more or a little less

17 :)

I turn 16 in April!

1.75 inches of rain
2.4 inches of snow

chfs327...you really want me and Sam to know your forecast don't you...LOL.  I'm just kidding. :)

i like how your so precise haha.... im suprised u didnt add some ice in there since i know you want it to be all ice! ;)

I wanted ice but ohh well. Flooding is awesome. Expecially when u have 2 lakes close by. 1 at the end of my street and 1 3 streets away. 2 different lakes

jacob ... you can see the snow totals on the NWS point forecast.

Go to their main page, click on where you live and then scroll down. On the lower right, you'll see a list of links. Click on "hourly weather graph." It will look like this:

http://tinyurl.com/2fd6rs

NO ICE!  I want it to be all snow, but it won't be.  Since nobody is really on here I'm going to say this...have read Fox's weather blog?  How in the world...???  Also, he is saying 65 degrees next week!  Blows me away!

WHY IN THE WORLD DO YOU WANT ICE OR FLOODING FOR THAT MATTER?  THAT MAKES NO SENSE TO ME!?!

ya i have 1 down the street.....its pretty cool to look at but im sure the people that live next to it arent going to be too thrilled

We aren't necessarily out of the woods for ice it's a little concerning that radar trends over north texas and southern oklahoma is moving north and northeast Gary mentioned on the news he was concerned that temperatures might not get that much above freezing where we could have a period of ice,considering that temps are around 20 right now it might not get that warm tomorrow it's something to pay attention too.

RickMckc...thanks, big help!

and i agree with jacob... i wouldnt really ever wish something to happen to could cost people money or their lives.

LRCfan...whats you "gut feeling"?

Jacob. No 1 cares about fox 4. In this blog we only care about gary lezak. Not some crappy fat guy with glasses who suckes at forecasting. Turn into the real forecasters which Gary, Brent, jeremy and that other guy

Jacob the nws said their could be a brief period of freezing rain around st.joseph my gut feeling is that areas just north of kc could get this,I agree with Gary the flooding situation really is the worst thing right now this storm gets cranking sunday morning I believe the rain is going to switch quickly to snow some areas from kc and north will see more than 4 inches as Gary said I live in Leavenworth I've been through most of the snowstorms including that aweful icestorm in december that effected st. joseph it just amazes me and proves how good the LRC theory is. I hope the south can join in on the fun.

chfs327...I will tell you right now that one...that was uncalled for...two, Gary and his team are the ONLY people I watch and depend on, plus I have a personal relationship with Gary, and three, I would really watch what you say!  Some people may not like that station, but what you said was really rude!  It's not cool or classy for that matter, so be nice or leave!

I also believe these watches will be pulled a little bit further south too and some areas may be upgraded to a warning sometime tomorrow for sunday.

My gut feeling (though you didn't ask) ... for the Northland, lots of cold rain, most likely beginning after 6pm ... heavy wet snowfall by Sunday morning, likely accumulating on grassy and elevated surfaces but not so much on roadways, ending before 1pm. Maybe 3 inches.

LRCfan,

I'm so glad that you are on the same page as me on the LRC!  It's amazing!  I'm in Lee's Summit and yes, it would be nice to get something this year.  But I have a feeling that you will get it again.  LOL.

sounds good Rick does anyone know the pavement temps right now.

Thanks Rick...

Jacob it definitely looks like it this way but there is always hope!!!!!!!

I'd be careful about slamming another station's forecast before the event. That seems rather foolish. Those guys and gals have to be pretty sharp to have the jobs they have.

ROAD TEMPS...KANSAS CITY

BRIDGES: 24
PAVEMENT: 26

Nice looking maps.  You should share the technology with the NWS.  It looks like they do theirs with crayons.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax

(and they apparently don't know the difference between the word "affect" and "effect")

do you guys think that there will be a winter storm watch added to the counties further south

jacob where did u get that info?

Funny...when you look at the NWS page, the farther north you go (where the Winter Storm Watch is) they have a less chance of snow then the south and less over all totals.  South side has an 80% chance of snow and 100% of rain with 1-2" and the north side only has a 50% chance of snow and little rain accumulation.  Why?

lol Ronnie, thanks Jacob I also looked at roads from kdot they also confirmed mid 20's for pavement temperatures which at that temp it would stick if untreated.

I go the info from the Kansas and Missouri Road department websites.  Look them up on google.

if it gets to 40 tomorrow and then rains, the road temps will be above freezing, no?

I don't think a Winter Storm Watch will be issued, but MAYBE a Winter Weather Advisory some time tomorrow.

I just don't think it's going to get to 40 tomorrow I know Gary was calling for 37 I think that is optimistic it's 9 degrees in Des Moines right now and we have a northeast wind currently funneling that cold air in. I hope it get's to 40 tomorrow tho.

Rick,

Air temperatures are expected to go down to about 12 to 14 degrees tonight which will only lower the ground temps.  I don't know if we will make it up to 40 degrees, its possible, but I think it will be from about 35-37 degrees during the day, and around 30-32 at night tomorrow.  This would rise the ground temps because the rain falling is coming from warmer air aloft, so when it hits the ground it will warm the pavement.  It really all depends on how low the ground temps get tonight, and how high the air temps get during the day tomorrow.  We will just have to see.

hopefully the roads arent too bad when i drive home tomarrow morning...lol...after my night of partying for my birthday

Ice is approaching oklahoma city right now with winter storm warnings for a quarter inch of ice there temperature is just below freezing.

tomorrow will be an interesting day ... i'm out - you guys take it from here!

thanks for your insight Rick have a good night!!!!!! and yes it's going to be fun to follow the developments I want to see the new set of data in a couple of hours..

saturday morning should be fine sunday morning might be another story Sam!!!!!

im talkin like at around 1 or 2 in the morning... how do u think it will be then

Sam...Likely a mix of rain/freezing rain/snow.  Not looking good.  PLEASE be safe!  

well it's still too early to tell really my guess it will still be rain but who knows lol

The new nam is trickling out :)

LRCfan...I'm going to be here for a while just for the same reason you are!  Can you please give me the link for the site you are using to look at new data?  I want to do this as well with you...I think me and you are the only die hard people tonight.

im all in

wat time???and could u post the link cuz i dont kno where to find it.thanks.. anyways i think its about time i go to bed...gotta get up and go to ihop hahaha

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/   here you go Jacob click on 06 utc nam under 4 panel charts.

it's only on 12 hours right now which shows the precip to the south.

the models are always slow to trickle in.

LRCfan,

Would you mind explaining to me how this works.  I've never done this thing before, so a little explaination would help a lot.

what would happen if it didnt get as hot as it is supposed to today and thus ended up under freezing faster??? would that mean more snow or freezing rain?? and if freezing rain why?

Right now the ir loop for the ICT region looks very impressive, you can see the deeper snowpack showing up as colder colors, you can see the higher cloud tops showing up as colder colors, AND WHAT IS REALLY COOL is that you can EASILY pick up on the low clouds and their slow march north as WARMER colors to the south of the clear skies!!
Again another amazing storm is taking shape  at least we are supposed to be on the "right" side of 32 when it is raining according to the models... but the freezing line never gets too far away from us so it is something to watch.

jacob,it's hard to explain from here in a bit I'll post a link and I'll explain what it means also the 2am observation at kci is 19 degrees so there is alot of cold air I can't wait to see how this evolves the models do not do good at predicting cold temperatures.

New NAM at 18hrs already has us at about 2.5" of precip.  WOW!

I think I figured it out...I just have to push refresh and a new time will come up.  How do you tell the difference between rain and snow?

Nick I agree these models have a tough time predicting temps.Sam it depends what the surface temp is if its 32 and below at the ground and in the atmosphere the temps are above freezing then it would be freezing rain.

I messed up...its not 2.5"...thats if it were all snow...sorry.  Only .25"!

the blue 540 line represents the freezing line Jacob but that isnt always accurate

Looking like the heavy precipitation will be north and northeast of KC according to the latest data.

like I have said all night is it's cold already outside it would take sunshine to get to 40 unless we have a warm front go thru.

Jacob the gfs won't be out till 3:30am in case you are wondering.

Tell me if I'm wrong please...but if I'm right, most of this will be rain and even that looks north and northeast of KC.  To me it looks like the storm is taking a more northernly track.  So not much if any snow?

yea and that is where the heaviest snow well fall too but we have to compare the models the nam has not been the main choice this season

Thanks, I was just about to ask.

All of the new NAM has come out and it takes the storm a little more north, and pushes the rain and snow more north.  South side could get missed again!  Not enjoying the new data at all!

my computer is being overwhelmed right now

the nws well update their forecasts and watches about 3:30 or 4.

yep but that is the LRC the same areas are getting hit :( that is good for me but not so good for u.

One thing I noticed is that the NAM does not phase the two systems.  If thats true, then what the other station said in their blog is right...correct?  No snow and less rain.

------------------

Jacob,

You are way too afraid.  Let's see where this storm tracks.

Gary

I really don't believe that if this storm comes out in one piece it's going to be huge the other system will not really effect that here it would make it more stronger tho.

Do you see a possible dry slot?  With how far north this thing is going, it is possible isn't it?

I don't believe in that bad word lol it's not showing up on the models I hope it don't happen .

Jacob I'm going to get a few hours of rest and get back on here and readjust my analysis. nice getting your input from you take care.

Would you agree on for Lee's Summit, no more than an inch of snow based on the new NAM?

Jacob I would say 2 inches I still believe that the 4inches plus area is still in good shape.

I just looked at some different data, and I think there will be a quick band of snow and snow totals will be minor metro wide.

nam looks nice at 36 hours out.. if i'm reading the map right thats snow and its .5-.75 of liquid for kc metro.

GFS is rolling out.... looks like at 36 hours... snow and .25-.5 of liquid for KC metro.

it looks like watch placements are the same place as yesterday,nothing new.

Gary do u think the temps are going to be around freezing when the precip starts?

***********

We'll be above freezing...that's why rain is in the forecast for KC.  Colder air arrives overnight.

Jeremy

If anyone can give me some idea what milwaukee is going to get out of this tomorrow I'd appreciate the insight. my wife will be flying into milwaukee on a connecter flight small prop plane around 8 30 tomorrow night. I'm a little worried. :/

****************

Milwaukee may see some freezing rain/mix to snow.  Right now MKE looks like 1-3" of snow.  The heavier band will likely stay west of MKE.  Still tricky for a flight.

Jeremy

Gary, Jeremy, Brett, and Jeff (I figure all of you are going to be at some point today LOL)

Good chilly clear morning to all of you!! Currently sitting at 21 degrees this morning with the winds still out of the East. I'm really playing catch up with this as things are really cooking at school right now but, as always, some random observations-I hope some stick!!!! LOL

1. Looking at the lates surface observations we are about to go to a southerly wind here in Lawrence-South Central Kansas has some readings above freezing at 11Z this morning and the High pressure system as drifted off into Ohio so the East winds should turn rather quickly. I really wish we had a high sitting up in Manaitoba or Saskatchewan right now...

2. The water vapor imagery is pretty cool this morning-you can really see that upper level low spinning along the border of New Mexico and Mexico-it is heading East as of now but I think it is beginning to try and make the turn. Furthermore, the gulf is wide open!!! Also, it appears the Northern energy is beginning to dive into the U.S. and a piece of it has already dove into Central Idaho-this is not very strong on the models (I don't think??)

3. The soundings on the 0z and 6Z for Topeka are so close from late tonight into tomorrow that things can go either way with this-Topeka at 36 hours has a surface temp. of 33 degrees with the 850 temps. at about 25-that is so close-if they are off by a degree or so...man this is tricky-kind of like the RUN DMC song-tricky tricky tricky!!!

4. Radar returns are beginning to enter southern Kansas so here it comes!!!!!

5. I would so much rather this be all snow or maybe even a 1/4 inch of ice instead of a big rain maker and not because I am a winter weather lover but Lawrence is just primed for some big flooding with this especially if the rain comes hard which it appears it may. Much of the North facing hills here still have snow-my back yard still has snow and is frozen harder than a rock-any hard rain is going to run like a banchee and considering how flood prone Lawrence is (think North Lawrence or 23rd and Naismith Drive) I really think this could be bad situation here if the rain comes hard at all. So yea-not as snow lover, but for this particular situation a hard rain and alot of it is to me going to cause more problems that 10-12 inches of snow or even 1/4 inch of ice. Just my own personal take but I have been thinking about the flooding potential here for 2 days now.

Man, another fascinating storm to follow-what a winter!! Of course, since Lawrence's average temperature is now 44 degrees, rain is not out of the ordinary at all but in this situation, again, 10 inches of snow would be a less head ache than 2 inches of hard rain!!!

Have a great day-hang in there and I know that the weather lover in all of you is going to love following this storm-what a deal!!!! Thanks for reading and I bet this blog takes close to 2,000 hits with this storm!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

----------------

Bill,

The blog had 10,000 hits yesterday. 

Gary

Now I am not only starting to get concerned about spring severe weather, but with these many west storms during the winter months - if the LRC holds up during spring we may be in for some serious flooding situations.

**************

Both flooding and severe weather may be a concern this spring.  There will likely be many severe weather chances.  Last spring was pretty quiet near KC overall, probably not this spring.

Jeremy

(meant wet storms, not west storms0

Jeremy:

Good Morning!!! How are you doing this morning?? Another wild ride is upon us huh??

Last quick check in this morning as like Bob Seager Running Against the Wind have some dead lines and commitments!!!

Our temperature is slowly rising-we are at 22 right now but the clouds are quickly moving in from the South-can see them spreading in over the Southern Horizion.

Looks like parts of Oklahoma are getting some decent freezing rain this morning-yuck!!

One quirky think that I think I am seeing on satelite imagery (or maybe I am just seeing things!!! LOL) is that the northern energy looks to be diving into the inner montain west fairly quickly this morning-it appears the cloud deck from both pieces of energy is about 200 miles from each other. Also, is the Upper Level Low having trouble making the turn North?? Is this even close to being right or am I doing another Winston Smith trying to see that 2+2=5?? LOL

Like I blabbed about above, the main thing I am watching from this is flooding on area roads etc. here in Lawreence-1-2 inces of rain cuases 23rd and Naismith to flood in the summer but man with the ground still frozen up solid here 1-2 inches I think can/will cause some road ponding problems here today and tonight. Lawrence for sure has very flood prone areas and I think alot of this will run so this is something that I am really watching. Man, if we could of just had a high sitting up in Manitoba...

Have a great day-good luck-the next 36 hours are going to be something!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

***************

Bill,

The forecast is complex to say the least.  But I think we have a good handle on things right now.  The ULL is very well defined over the Southwest. 

The current position of the ULL lines up very well with the 6Z runs of the NAM & GFS.  If it was off one way or another some red flags would go up, but right now things look pretty good.

Keep us updated today.  Maybe you'll get to make a snow fort again soon!

Jeremy

i heard gary mention last night on the 6 pm broadcast that with the ground being mostly frozen and saturated that 1" of rain will be more like 3" to 4" regarding run-off. did i hear that right? (time to be sure all the stuff downstairs is up off the floor!!) have a great day team! i'll try to tune in at 8. - mike t.

**************

Mike,

I missed the 6pm but that is certainly possible.  I think the flooding concerns are for rivers/streams and low lying areas.  Generally areas that are prone to flooding at anytime of the year.  I know some rivers/streams have ice on them, so ice dams may cause some additional headaches if the ice breaks up.

Jeremy

Good Morning Jeremy!  How are you doing?  I really don't want to ask, but because I was up all night and watched the NAM come out, I kinda know whats going to happen, but whats your take on what is going to happen? Is there ANY chance Lee's Summit will get snow out of this?  My "gut feeling" for some reason is that this storm is going to be a lot less stronger than everybody is saying...I don't want to believe that feeling, but who knows.

....also, are you going to put out a new blog, or will Gary do that later?

Does anybody expect the NWS to pick up o this trend and move the advisories south?
Gary, I think I will be able to get you those pictures today.

I want to take a trip to Iowa!  BLIZZARD WATCH and 8-12" of snow!  And wind gusts up to 45mph!  Gary, what to come?!?  LOL.

WinterTracker...what trends!!??  Everything I've seen is this thing trending more NORTH!

I just listened to the forecast on my NOAA weather radio... 1 to 2 inches of rain overnight and 2 to 4 inches of snow tomorrow.  I am actually up to see the Channel 41 newscast this morning.  A first for me. :)  I am looking forward to seeing Jeremy's forecast. :)

Kristi

NEW BLOG!

In all my years, I have never seen so many colors for watch/advisory warning on the nws map in such a small area.  This has been one of if not the most fascinating winters for us.  Of course I do feel for all the those that have endured destruction that has happened with tornadoes, avalanches out west, the massive ice storms etc.  Part of Wisconsin that had the tornadic storms in January also have had near record snows for the winter season.

I just hope that we don't get a significant round of ice with all the weak tree limbs/branches still in the trees around St. Joseph.  There is still a massive amount of clean up to do since the ground has been either snow/ice covered or mud for much of this winter.

I also can see Gary's excitment as this unfolds, it must be contagious with the blog getting 10,000 hits yesterday.  I will be reading all the enteries and check back today to get some idea what everyone is thinking.  In the mean time I think I need go to the store early and make sure Dad and I are prepared should this be a blizzard tomorrow.

**************

We will keep you updated all day and night long!

Jeremy