NBC Action Communities

Gary,

Good Morning! How are you? Isn't this storm moving more north? I just don't see us getting much if any snow form all this. I may be wrong, but it is what all the storms have done this winter...so....

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Jacob,

The storm is almost taking the perfect track for you to see heavy snow.  But, you will need to get some sleep tonight.  It very likely won't changeover until mid morning and it could drive you crazy waiting for it to happen.  But, at the very least as the last band moves over you tomorrow morning you could see 2 hours of heavy snow, and at 1 inch per hour, possibly even higher rates it would make you happy in the end.  So, don't expect much more than this, but if the track continues to be perfect even Lee's Summit could end up with 4 or 5 hours of  that snow.  We just don't know exactly when it will change over.

Gary

Good Morning Weather Team and Bloggers,

We're in Salina, KS this weekend and will miss the 8am weekend newscasts.  We'll take a look at Action Weather Plus channel on the web later today to get the forecasts!

The importance of the blog is very high for us in cases like this.  We checked the blog on our arrival last night in Salina and will be checking it frequently today and tomorrow morning before we depart Salina for Lee's Summit.

Mike and Jenn

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Mike and Jenn,

We will keep you updated!

Gary

What did you all say last night? For some reason, the snowfall predictions are not showing up on my screen.  I don't really care about the rain...just the snow!

And in case you were wondering, it was 18 in Platte City this morning and it smells like a storm is coming.  

And what's with the comments from KCwxforecaster.  No more insults.  This is a teaching, learning, and insight blog.  Not a battle over smarts! Anyone who claims such intelligence must be doubting it.

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If you can't see the snowfall forecast in last nights blog, your computer must be somehow blocking this new way we are showing it.

We will add our thoughts in a few minutes.

Gary

Gary  i think the storm is starting to move a little more to the south what do you think  do u think this is the big storm everyone has been waiting for

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It is taking the same track I showed last night on the air.  

Gary

Well. Hearing that some part of the metro could get some ice accumalation is awesoem but.

1.75 inches of rain and 2.4 inches of snow. If we get high than 2.4 then ill take it

Will there be any freezing rain during the switchover to snow?  Ice is just so dangerous, I can get traction in snow!

*************

Can't rule it out...but the duration would likely be short.  Different story near and north of St. Joe though.

Jeremy

Gary you should charge on the set and say hi during snowfall totals

**************

Maybe he'll join me tomorrow morning:)

Jeremy

New NAM Looks pretty impressive

Well, I'm not so excited about the rain. But I can't really see where Blue Springs falls i the snow chart. So if someone can maybe help me out a little. I'm having a hard time making it out, where we fall. Thanks and great job as always weather team.
Krista

Gary and Jeremy,

Looking at the 30hr NAM, the 540mb thickness level has moved through at that time...does that mean that what ever amout of precip totals on that map at that time would be all snow?  If so Kansas City is in about 3-5" of snow, right?  I may be way off here, but I think thats right.

Krista,
Looks like two inches for Blue Springs the same as here in south Raytown.

I missed the forecast. :(  Jeremy, did you say not to travel this weekend?  That's what my dad said as I glanced over at the TV as he was watching another station. :)  I really need a bathroom in my dungeon. :)

Kristi

****************

Did you just swear at me?  Watching another station:) 

I never tell people not to travel...just advise it.  But I'm not saying that quite yet.

Jeremy

If you all noticed...Jeremy moved the 2"+ rainfall totals south. Jackson county is no longer in that heavy band of rain...

**************

Jacob,

Not a huge factor...just looks like 1-2" will do it.  Best chance of t-storms is south.

Jeremy

Little concerned about the temperature. Will we actually warm up enough today to be above freezing?  It is only 20 right now and there is still alot of snow on the ground up here. Won't that be a factor in how warm we get?

***************

All kinds of factors for surface temps.  Am I concerned...yes.  In a situation like this a 1 or 2 degree swing either way can lead to a totally different precip. type.  I do think St. Joe see's some freezing rain, but probably tonight.  .10-.25" of ice accum. is what I mentioned for northern areas on the air.  At least that is the possibility right now.

Jeremy

HOw long is this rain event suppose to last. 2+ inches in what time period? As you probably know I'm north of La Cygne and was just wondering if this rain was going to last 4-6 hours or less.

Flooding is a concern since the last rain on Tuesday flooded the pastures and drive way! I've really had enough of this winter and the strong winds. Doesn't it seem like the wind has gotten worse over the last couple years??? It always seems to blow hard now. It's been a long time since we had just a good ol garden variety shower- most storms now seem violent.

TeacherInStJoe...It is 26 degrees down here in Lee's Summit, so the warmer air is on the move.  Just wait a couple more hours and you will start your warm up. May be close to freezing though...just have to wait and see how this sets up.

If you want ice, it sounds like you have to go north along and north of US 36.

Kristi

Watching the skycam during the newscast, the clouds are moving quickly northward.  There was plenty of blue to the north.  Now it is pretty much covered by clouds.  It's been cloudy here since I got up at 7:30.

Kristi in south Raytown

*****************

Kristi,

Clouds are rushing in pretty quick!  Hopefully you saw the sun around sunrise today!

Jeremy

well ol' mt said no snow and the opposite sex repeated what gary said so somebody is gonna roll craps on this one

*************

We are confident in our forecast.  Is mother nature?

Jeremy

It is slightly different when I last checked it, the snow forecast. How much snow will be just west of Dwn Twn Olathe? It is still below frzng and why is this blog's rain forecast different from the one on The air,
 
   Byan.

juba...the only thing different on rain totals is the 2"+ area got moved farther south.  

**************

I pushed the heavier rain totals farther SE.  Generally 1-2" is now SE of St. Joe.  2"+ over southern viewing area.

Jeremy

Gary or Jeremy,

Great work as always to the whole Weather team, always like how excited you guys get for the snow.....

I'm normally one of the huge snow lovers in KC, and usually get missed like many of us do, but....I have a flight to Las Vegas tomorrow, and this is one of those times that I'd actually like a little less snow....what are the odds there will be flight delays tomorrow around noon?

Other than on the runway.......I say let it snow!

Bill

***********

Bill,

Hopefully the snow has departed by then.  The window for snow is about 1-5 hours.  The problem is when it changes over it could be heavy in spots.

Jeremy

Great Job on the CASA thing!

I wish CASA was already up and running in KC. Why can't they put test weather products in KC? Why is it always Norman,ok?

Celebrating the my oldest's birthday today. I'd like to place my order.... for all the real nasty stuff to wait till after 6pm Please..

Stacy, weather buddy Robert (bd boy) and the rest of the gang.

**************

I'm thinking rain for later today.  Have a great birthday!

Jeremy

Jeremy,
My dad is giving me a hard time now about it. LOL  (His hearing is worse than mine and he does not always hear everything.)  He is driving to Lawrence today for the Colorado-KU game is worried about the possibility of freezing rain.  I told him not to worry about it....  If we had any it., it would not be until tomorrow morning.  He was the one watching another station not me..  He knows what station I watch.

Kristi

The upper level low looks to me like it's moving southeast on the 24hr loop.

*************

Still looks to be in a good spot.

Jeremy

Andrew,
Norman is home to the National Severe Storms Laboratory.  It will be awhile before we see CASA here due to costs.

Kristi

***************

Always money issues:(

When will it start to snow and how much will come do west of Olathe say, around Super Target? (if you know where that is). It looks like we will have some flooding the fiels in my back yard is already flooded, but all the water in it is frozen. Th noaa in pleasant hill hasn't issued a winter storm watch for us yet but do you think they will tonight? When it turns over to snow could there be thunder snow? Im bubbling with questions, iw was born in the year of the mouse.

  Byan.

im not from china

No snow, all RAIN. Im telling you people we arent going to get a lot of snow.

*************

The band of heavy snow will be pretty narrow and likely run from near the state line area and points northeast.

Jeremy

Kristi,

I remember that now, I visited that place about 2-3 yrs ago. Went to the SPC also.
But, wow! CASA is making me excited!! Maybe I should sell everything I have, so that CASA can come here sooner? nah, never mind!!

Simplified- When the snow come, how much snow wil do east of olathe get and will there be some Thundersnow. (rasap)

Jeremy,

if the rain holds off until later this afternoon/early this evening, will that increase our chances of a freezing rain, sleet, snow event...or do you see the temperatures staying around freezing until early in the morning on Sunday?

Fred

Jeremy
You made my son's day.  Thank you

Looking at the new NAM Jeremy, is there any chance at all that Lee's Summit could see 3-5" of snow? What would you say the %age chance of that happening is?

I saw a red sky this morning so I guess the saying "red sky in morning sailor take warning, red sky at night sailor delight" is true.
Thanks for all you do I love reading the blog and watching you guys on t.v.  Gary I have been a fan of yours since I was in high school and I just turned 30 on Thursday so you can see it's been a long time (and a switch of stations).  :)

Im smell a dusting to

This is all part of the LRC! No doubt this is all going to be north and leave the south in the dust...or "no snow land".

Im going dusting to 1 inch here in Parkville. I just dont see the cold air getting here in time.

Andrew,
I bet you got to see some real interesting things at both places. :)  I went thru the NWS office here in KC when it was in downtown KCMO at the Federal building on 12th Street.  That was way back in the early 1970s when I was a kid.  It's probably how I got my interest in weather. :)

Kristi

Jeramy has stoped looking at the blog

Did Jeremy leave us hang'n?

Says that Jeremy is not logged on to the blog...guess he went home...

Geez Kristi the early 70's!  Did they even have weather back them?;)

lol

Yes!  One of my my brothers' baseball managers worked for the NWS here in KC at the time. :)  That's how we got the tour. :)  Weather forecasting was around way before then. :)  Check this out this on NOAA history:  http://www.history.noaa.gov/index.html

Kristi

Kristi,
Thanks for the help. I was just not being able to make out exactly where the line was falling to read the snow. So thanks very much.
Well, I guess we'll just sit and wait for the rain to come in and then the snow. I'm sure I'll check in later. We have plans today and I hate that it'll be raining. Oh well.
Krista

Any concern that we could see some freeing precip with Temps still in the Mid 20's right now?  Especially since it is below freezing even in Central Mo? ************** 29 at KCI at 10am. Not really concerned for KC. Jeremy

What else did they have in the 70's? 8 tracks and black and white tv's and "Grease"  and Disco.  That's awesome.  Good to know they were forecasting with wigi boards. lol

I think some of the other guys still use wigi boards.

New GFS is really moving the storm faster and puts us in lighter precip after the rain/snow line passes.....

If the piece of energy from the north does phase with the stronger low down south, I don't see it speeding up, but slowing down *********** Basically the forecast of 1-4" for the metro I showed this a.m. will be pretty close. Jeremy

this is going to be a long day....

Heavy snow.

No. temps will rise when the rain gets here around 4pm in KC. you guys will have all rain then some small snow

The new GFS only puts about 1-2" of snow metro wide!  If you go back to last nights blog between about 12AM -3AM, I said this would happen! ************** Ok...that's your forecast. Jeremy

    What time will it switch over here in downtown KC, tonight or what time tomorrow morning????????? ************* Probably 5-8am. Somewhere in there give or take an hour. Jeremy

weatherjaded,
You obviously didn't grow up back in that era, eh?  I did and am not ashame of it.  Things were definitely far different than what they are today.  But, guess what?  It's what we had.  I can sit and watch Jeremy's forecast today and see how far weather forecasting has come since the early 1970s.  I remember when weather graphics were slapped on a board not the great computer graphics of today.  Radar was much different back then.  There was no doppler radar.

I recommend you read two books...  "Storm Warning:  The Story of a Killer Tornado" by Nancy Mathis and "Caught in the Path" by Carolyn Glenn Brewer.  These two books will show you how far we have come with weather forecasting, particularly tornado warnings.  Remember Fred Ostby?  He ran the National Severe Storm Forecasting Center here in KC.

Kristi

  Look like it gonna be ice, it cold ************* I don't think for KC. Jeremy

The latest observations have both KCI and Lee's Summit at 29.  The temps will be above freezing when the precip starts falling later.  The precip is still down in southern KS and MO.

Kristi

30 degrees in Lee's Summit.

Well welcome back Jeremy!

 Thanks Jeremy, now I get some good sleep tonight and don't have to worry bout snow or ice till tomorrow morning

This storm is just another reason I've started looking for job openings in the West Des Moines and Ankeny Iowa area, 220 miles north. Unfortunately I haven't found any openings yet and the pay would be less but the amount of snow they get would make up for all of that. That will be the one question I ask in the interview, "what is your seasonal average for snowfall?" My diet is off, my sleep is off, my energy level is off. Get a monster snow and it's like the best drug ever, I feel like superman and could fly, lift 300 lbs and go 3 days without sleep! Well, since something will happen and I will miss the snow again here in Blue Springs I better get back to job hunting. How about a mass exodus, let's all migrate north and let just the trees, animals and buildings deal with this topsy-turvy weather, traffic jam on I-35 north baby!!!
***************** Trust me...if you lived in an area that saw a lot of snow every year...or more than KC. After a while it gets old:) Jeremy

Tell somebody to fix the blog, it is showing diff from what is on the air/ chnl 249 *************** What? I did WxPlus this a.m. Some maps may be a little different, not much though. Jeremy

whats different?

I could have gone to Cedar Rapids IA with my former employer if I had wanted to apply there.  I passed on the idea.  Too far away from friends and family and the idea of six months of winter did not please me.  The cost of living in IA is much cheaper so that's the reason for the cheaper wages there.  

Kristi

"last night, chfs327 said:
Jacob. No 1 cares about that other station. In this blog we only care about gary lezak. Not some crappy fat guy with glasses who sucks at forecasting. Turn into the real forecasters which Gary, Brent, jeremy and Jeff Penner"

chfs327, that was rude and uncalled for.

I did watch the "other station" last night at ten. and he had taken all snow out of the forecast.....we need to face the facts people.....its going to be all rain like patsocks said. the back end of these storms never produce a lot of snow.....our only hope is if the cold air comes in faster...its already 34 here....

I say a dusting at best here. I doubt the metro will get what Gary is predicting.

we'll see.....

the last two times Gary put me in the 6 inch range, I ended up with a half inch or an inch.....the "other station" always underestimates the storms....and that may be a good thing because usually the storms weaken a lot as they approach my house...lol

I'm not taking sides yet...but I am going to base my snowfall trust in Gary, in this next storm.

Brent ************* Brent, I clearly remember the night before Gary had you in a dusting to 2" for the last storm. Maybe early on he had you near that 6 inch band, but it shifted north and at 10 he got it right. But the final forecast should hold much more weight. It would also be great if you post dates instead of just throwing claims out on the blog about Gary's forecast. Also, our snow map has you in around 1" for this storm. That is maybe .10" liquid. A little change either way could be a dusting or over 1". So you clearly are not in the heavy band for this storm right now. We hope you see some snow. As for other stations you know we don't like to discuss them here.  Jeremy

Won't the cloud cover prevent the temps from rising a lot?

Jeremy...you seem stressed out... ************ No...the weather doesn't stress me out. Just my 2 kids:) Jeremy

It is warming up, now up to 27 but the clouds are moving in. It will be interesting to see what happens. ************ Clouds rolled into KC when it was 22-23 degrees. Now 29. Should warm above freezing in all areas. Jeremy

Well...thanks Brent...

OK...I've got to leave.  Have fun today!  Bye everybody!

Good luck Gary and Jeremy!!!

Do you see any chance the snowfall totals may increase at all?? ************ They could go up or down just let we have been mentioning. Jeremy

I am going with the higher totals forecasted by the NAM. The GFS has been lacking consistency, and continues to change too much each model run. My forecast is for at least 3-5 inches for areas northwest and west of the KC metro. ************** Sounds fair. The NAM has actually handled the past 2 storm fairly well. The snow should be pretty intense early tomorrow morning when it changes over. May not last all that long though(1-5 hours?). Jeremy

Im seeing the GFS still with 2-5 inches of snow for us northerners but it isnt going to happen. I say dusting. *************** Cheering against the snow in hopes of seeing some;) Jeremy

Brent where have you been. I made that comment at like midnight.

You all know my prediction so im not gonna post it.

I would love for an armada of military transport planes full of crushed dry ice to fly over Blue Springs and drop it from about 10,000 feet chill off this warm air aloft and let all 2.whatever inches of liquid precip fall in the form of frozen precip. I tired of watching my digital thermometer go up. As far as getting sick of snow; I don't see it happening. That's like telling someone who is in a third world country, "after moving to the United States with all of that food that they produce every year you'll get tired of it." I don't think so. It's a different kind of hunger but bring on the buffet and it would be like saying that after you stuff yourself that you won't get hungry again. No, in 8 hours the hunger comes back. Give me a foot of snow and in another week I'm hungry again. Insatiable desire for the white stuff!

go to www.popularfront.com/snowdays , I wich it would snow like that here

Jeremy, on my trip from drexel to the sprint center sun evening and on the way home, how do you think the roads will be?

Hey Jeremy, I was looking at the latest GFS and its showing .50-.75 inches of rain, and the temps will be belowe freezing. I am having a hard time understand why we are not under a watch or warning when 5-7 inches of snow is in the very trusted model... It just seems odd.

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We are so due for something like this to happen.  If this storm takes a slightly farther south track than the GFS is saying then we will go into those higher totals.  I think everyone is aware that a storm is coming in.  Predicting exact amounts of snow is very difficult.  We will get it right for some of the viewing area and we will miss for others, but we are trying very hard to get it right for everyone.  It is going to snow, so we will be right about that, but then the exact amounts is where it becomes a problem.  So, they will hold off on a warning until they see the evidence right in front of them.  This is a tough one.  If you are in Wisconsin it is easy! 

Gary

Jacob, Juba, et al... do you think Jeremy sits in front of the computer all day? I believe the most important thing he does is track the weather and look for updates. The fact that he and Gary post as often as they do says something about their dedication to all facets of their weather informing. I don't think we need to comment on them "leaving us hanging."
I also wish that that there was more PMing done, rather thasn rehashing rude comments or even making them to begin with. I don't remember the blog being like this back when it started and I kind of miss that. It's great more people are discovering this blog and it is such a great way to learn about the weather.
I miss the blogs from StormDog and even Scott isn't as present as he once was. Oh well... Back to the weather :)

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Scott an dog will be in here sometime soon.  I think it is amazing, but they may be wiped out by all of this winter weather. 

Gary

Jeremy,  A lot of people watch the 6 pm news. then most of them go to bed.....at 6 Gary had the entire metro in the 6 +

then suddenly at 10 he changed to 2 inches...and then we got less than 1 inch...

by no means am I slamming or blaming Gary, the storm track changed by a mere 40 miles....he can't help that...and niether can I....but the point is...that you guys have not really hit the last 3 storms for Harrisonville... very well at least....

lets just hope you get this one right...
the only way you can bust this forecast for me is if we get over 4 inches...and I don't think that will happen....

UNLESS! the storm shifts 20 miles south!!!

oh weather forecasting snow is so hard!

Brent

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Brent,

Maybe you are right.  It is your perception which is still important, but I think you will agree that overall this winter with all of the storm systems we have done quite well.  And, even though we did bring that 6 inch band into your area, you were still on the edge.  I knew it, you knew it.  But, it then shifted back to the north.  In the end we did get it right, but at 5 and 6 PM that night I brought the band too far south.  Remember my reasoning, that system just ended up a "blip" farther north.  Now, let's move on and see what happens with this one.  I think you will get more than a dusting.

Gary

"   jacob said:
Jeremy...you seem stressed out... "

thats normal....

"chfs327 said:
Brent where have you been. I made that comment at like midnight."

true....I don't like staying up that late...I usually go to be around 10:30. but I had to comment on that post...it was not nice..8(

Brent, from what I read, you will never be happy with the team unless they forecast a 10" snowfall for Harrisonville and it hits.  Good grief kid, ease up some.  IT is mother nature.  

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Thank you so much!  Brent knows that we will be quite happy if this storm ends up producing farther south.  We are hoping Harrisonville gets it this time, or sometime before the snow season is over.  He needs a good snowstorm.

Gary

Remeber that when the temperature is right around freezing, liquid to snow ratios can take quite a hit. With temperatures at the surface around 32, the .5" of liquid can equate to 2.5" of snow or less.

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Yes and no!  It will likely still be around a 10-1 ratio with near 32 degrees as the temperatures aloft are dropping fast.

Gary

Jeremy, I don't know what you consider as cussing, but I would appreciate it if someone edited the posts that contain that sort of content please.

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Brent,

It is very difficult to stay on top of every blog entry.  We all know the ground rules for this blog, and for the most part it has stayed within the acceptable range so we can all enjoy it. 

Gary

Weather.com is showing Wichita's current temperature at 32 degrees. I realize they don't continually update the temps every few minutes, but, just wondering where this push of warmer air is coming from if its still 32 degrees (or around that) that far south still. Is it still supposed to get to 38/39 degrees for a high? ************** I think our high of 37 today should be pretty close. With no rain in the metro thru probably 3pm or later I think mid 30s are likely. Already 32 at 11am. Jeremy

the warmer air is coming from the southeast...from arkansas, not wichita. ************** Yep...not too worried about getting to 37 today for KC. Jeremy

"Brent, from what I read, you will never be happy with the team unless they forecast a 10" snowfall for Harrisonville and it hits.  Good grief kid, ease up some. "

wrong , wrong and wrong.
I am not that picky about it.
also, all I ask is that they be within 3 inches.

YES!!!! Linn county is now under a Winter Storm Watch...Do you think it could make it down to Chariton county? ************ Linn county, MO. Jeremy

"but I think you will agree that overall this winter with all of the storm systems we have done quite well."

I agree....for the metro you have been the most accurate all winter.

its a balmy 37 here.... *************** Let us know when the precip. reaches you! Jeremy

the rain south of us on the radar looks impressive.

http://www.accuweather.com/radar-regional.asp?partner=adcalerts&traveler=0&level=regional&type=SIR&anim=STILL&site=sc

I know that St. Joe is expecting some ice (.10-.25 of an in.).  Do you remember our ice totals w/ the Dec. 11th ice storm?  I want to say it was .50-.75 even a whole inch but not sure?  I am hoping for nothing like that storm.  Hope it changes over to snow quickly ************* I am not anticipating anything like you saw in December. With temps in the low 30s or near there...roads may still wet. With the ice on trees, vehicles, etc. Jeremy

why is there a flood warning in Vernon county?

  Gary is it pretty likely that it will not change over (snow)till tomorrow morning here in downtown KC? I hope to get sleep without worring bout the snow till tomorrow, is it still likely we could see not much snow, i hope

Brent,
In anticipation of heavy rain falling.

Kristi

Yes..Linn county, MO

Stjoemom,
 I'm also in Saint Joseph and I believe that it was indeed .50-.75 but not any higher than that. Savannah, MO seemed to receive just a little more than us that time too. I'm hoping for almost all snow!

Jay

38 degrees!!! my dream of snow is vanishing!!!

I have a question about something that seems very odd on the 12Z model extraction page for KCI:

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kmci.txt

Notice that on 12/15/18Z of tomorrow, the actual 500MB height is progged to be less than the 1000-500MB thickness. How can that be possible? If it is possible, does it mean anything special?

I just thought it odd that there was only one flood warning...it looks so isolated....hmmm

dpollard - I thought like you once.  Now I still love snow, heck I have four snow dogs..  I was stationed for awhile near Fairbanks, Alaska.   It's truly winter there, and lots of snow.  Very, very cold sometimes.  You get to point that you really don't want amymore snow ever!!!   So  I don't mind that we don't see a lot of snow here.  

Hopefully we will get some snow for my dogs.   They really don't like the rain and mud...

Bill
Grandview

Duh ... I just answered my own question ... the surface pressure is < 1000MB. Now, back to regularly scheduled blogging.

"Now, back to regularly scheduled blogging."

LOL

I look at it this way, if the change over is to happen around 6 in the Morning then the 10pm forecast on the air is the one I grade the team at. Will even give Gary a Midnight blog update if it warrents.

The 6-8 hour out prediction of amount of snow is critical in my eyes.  I can pretty much look at radar loops and Water Vapor/ Sat imagery 2-3 hours out and even after the precip starts and make  a pretty good guess at what's going to happen. Where I am amazed/stumped is that longer out forecasting. If Gary and the team tell me 2 days out or even 24hours out that we will get 4-6 inches and we get those 4-6 inches that's pretty darn good in my book. The fact that Gary has come up with the LRC to tell me in give or take a couple of days that a storm system will be affecting my area in 50 or so days and THAT hits......that is truly amazing!

These guys are good no question, but everyone misses every now and then. I have even seen Tiger Woods miss a 3 foot putt.

Let's see what Gary and the Team say about snowfall on the 10:00 news. That will be the forecast that needs to be graded.  They already get an "A" for saying 4-5 days ago that a big system would affect the area on Saturday afternoon and night.  Let's see how the second part of the test grades out. ************** Final exam gets graded tomorrow a.m.! Jeremy

Well we are now up to 32 degrees so I think we should be okay... but the dew point is still 19 degrees we will have to see how quickly that goes up either way what a storm heading this way!! ************ Could be some severe weather in Texas today! Looks to be exciting in the warm air too. Jeremy

Thanks Jeremy for easing some of our worries up here in the north.  We basically count on you all to help us out up here...we don't have the most accurate weather here.  We know the metro is your primary focus but it means alot when we can get accurate weather for our area from you as well... Thanks again!!!! ************* We have people that watch us around the Iowa border and south of Clinton so we want to include everyone. Jeremy

It's above freezing now at both Lee's Summit and KCI, according to the latest observations.  Rain is still to our south.  Looks like a band of rain in Vernon and St. Clair Counties.

Kristi

Wow... Blizzard watches in southern IA, really only so many counties away from us here in St. Joe!!!  another nugget to ponder... there is still alot of snow from almost here on up expanding to our northeast if that is able to try and hold on to a colder air mass and then the surface low tracks where it is progged to then our flow will be off that snow pack area tonight, with temps. SO MARGINAL every factor is kind of important!! *********** One of many reasons why you could see some frz. rain tonight. Jeremy

STJOE  bloggers 1 inch of ice officially back on 12 December.  It is now 33 above freezing good stiff East wind.  Now mostly cloudy if it rains it will stick to things for  goodness sake it was 16 last nite did not get over 25 yesterday and 9 yesterday morning the grond and everything is frozen. . . our saving grace is if ice does develop that we lost most of the treelimbs already. .  

Best we can hope for is that it stars out as convective precip as sleet and cools the warm layer faster and gets us to SN+ by 2200 hrs tonite to make it a duration event of 10-12 hrs. . . keep in mind when the sun drops this time of year we should drop 1 o 2 degrees even with clouds.  thoughs.....  

RickMckc said:
"I have a question about something that seems very odd on the 12Z model extraction page for KCI:

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kmci.txt

Notice that on 12/15/18Z of tomorrow, the actual 500MB height is progged to be less than the 1000-500MB thickness. How can that be possible? If it is possible, does it mean anything special? "

The reason the 500mb height is lower than the 1000-500mb thickness during those  windows is because the surface - that we normally think of as being around 1000mb, will be less than that - it'll be in the 990s.  

So if you could travel from the ground upward to the 500mb surface, you wouldn't have to go quite as far as you'd have to go if you traveled from 1000mb (theoretically below the surface during those time frames) up to 500mb.  Hope that clarifies it a bit.  

In a nutshell, all it means is that the surface pressure is below 1000mb during those same time frames (as evidenced by the surface pressure values on the model prog).

Ok, tell me what this means for us?   That darn dry air! Thwarts me all the time!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST TO DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SOMEWHAT...AS UPPER
LOW EJECTING EWD SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS MADE IT INTO SERN KANSAS...BUT IS HAVING
TROUBLE MOVING NORTH INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES HAVE STALLED AS THICKER CLOUD COVER HAS
SPREAD OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS ACTUALLY
SLOWLY RISE AFTER SUNSET DUE TO ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. HEAVY RAINFALL
STILL LOOKS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

come on baby, one time!

Is it significant that most of the region is still hanging around the low 30's? Does this figure to be the sort of rain event that cools the temperature 2-3 degrees as it falls? If so, couldn't the fact that its say 33-34 rather than 37-38 when the event begins be a really important thing?

That means alot of rain and if it moves slower then IF it changes to snow we would have alot of it

It just means that the precip is running into the dry airmass that we currently have in place overheard.  It looks like the rain will not start until after sunset as oppose to this afternoon.  It looks like temps will go up too after sunset.

Kristi

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I still think the late afternoon forecast is fine for precip. starting.  Looks like some may be reaching the ground in Bates, Anderson, or Linn counties.

Jeremy

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Kristi,

We never thought it would start until after around 5 PM.  Everything is pointing towards an evening start time on the rain.  It  has nothing to do with the dry air.  The lift from the storm just isn't here yet.

Gary

Temps will stay steady or slowly rise until the low is in Central MO, the low itself will cool us down and pull some cooler air in behind it as well....the slower the better and a little bit more south

Good afternoon all!

Just waiting for the show to start!!

Gary,

The NWS disscusion said that the upper low is not ejecting as quickly as previously thought due to the dry air as stated by blogger Wthrlvr.

Could this slow down the system so it might fuse with the trough earlier and possibly increase the snowfall totals??

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There is nothing slower or faster about this system to us.  It seems right on schedule.  Everything is happening as we have expected thus far.  Where will the upper low track on Sunday?  This is the biggest question for me. 

Gary
                 

good question lezakEF5.

is there a possibility to get some kind of update.....

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If we have no info or something changes we will let everyone know.  Don't worry:)

Jeremy

In response to lezakEF5, rather than more snowfall, could this mean that there is a possibility for some freezing rain and sleet to fall before?  I know it was mentioned earlier that it was a possibility, but maybe it would end up lasting longer?

Also, just imagine if we were about 6-7 degrees cooler than we're supposed to be later tonight... the 2 inches of rain (i think) translates over to about 20 inches of snow on top of the snow that's already forecast.  I love me some snow, but that would be just a bit much for me.  EIther way, bring on the powder!

when are we getting an update?

please mr. swami please update us. Is there gonna be more snow. Or is there gonna be an Ice storm

The Blog is at a standstill awating an Update on the Storm. If any 1 else is logged on Please say something

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I'll update things after the updated advisories come out.  Just want to see if anything changes.  No need to update and then 1 hour later update again.  Hang in there:)

Jeremy

Gary,

How is the storm for next week looking...Will it be anywhere along the lines of this storm??

One more question...According to the LRC, what is this storm analogous to??

Gary,
I was trying to interpret what NWS said..  It was referencing the NWS forecast.  My bad...  I didn't know you had put a time on the rain arriving.  I need to pay closer attention. :)

Kristi  

Some ice in the form of sleet is likely south of KC.  The precip won't get here till around 8PM (as Gary stated earlier).  It could be a wet night for most of the area although I'm beginning to have some doubts as we've seen this exact same senerio for the last 3 weeks in a row to wake up with nothing.
If it pulls together as advertised, snow would start for most of the area until 9 or so Sunday morning and the snow may last for 5 hours as Gary advertised earlier.  It's still uncertain will that band will be as the Low is having trouble (slow) getting into our dry air.  

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The changeover for KC will likely be in the 6-9am window since this is a little slower.  Probably closer to 8-9am.  Still should see about 1-4" across the metro.  3-4" on the north side.  Kind of like other storms.

Jeremy

this storm is like the Dec. 22nd storm. The storm for next week will dumb some freezing rain

I dont think much has changed.  I think its going to hover right around 33 degrees tonight if not rise when the rain arrives?  
Areas to the north may see some ice.  I have looked at NWS I really don't see any changes really.  
I thought it was calming down, lol guess not.  Where in for wild spring I bet!

lezakEF5, nobody saw this storm before Wednesday at the earliest.  The LRC somewhat padded itself by generically saying "x" number of storms through the end of the month.  So the LRC would seem to "fit" for this if you wish it to.

I do expect the areas that do get rain and areas that are forecasted to get some snow out of this, like Johnson County Kansas, around those areas to go under winter weather advisory of some kind.  Unless something has changed that I dont see.  

I'm logged in... awaiting any updates as well.  I'm hoping for a big one this time around.

And I must say, the forecasting done by this team is worlds above the forecasting in St. Louis, where I moved from about a year ago.  Keep up the good work fellas!

Im Hungry. Im probably gonna get me either a whopper or a Baconator. which 1 should I get.

To stay on topic hopefully the nWs updates us and puts us in a Blowing snow and snow advisory for that band of heavy snow plus winds around 30 MPH when the snow is falling

I know you dont like negative comments or discussions that relate in any manner to other stations, but one thing that you guys have been doing that is causing me to watch other stations is that Gary refuses to give his forecast on the 5 PM news, he says watch at 6 or at 10.  I realize that it causes many to watch, but for those of us that for some reason cannot tune in its rather frustrating.  It reminds me of a bad episode of lost where nothing happens.  if you would just give us the weather and stop hyping up every little disturbance it would be nice and we would not have to ever switch the dial.

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Sorry you feel this way.  The 7 day is on every show...that has the forecast temp, sky, and precip.

Jeremy

Mooky thats our openion. He does it because more viewers watch the 6:00PM news station. Because hes competing against other networks for viewers and accuaracy then he can hype up the storms. Hes Gary Lezak, He can do whatever he wants to do

jeremy, no troubles, i would just like to see the full forecast

NAM ROLLING OUT.

tnichols47 said:
I'm hoping for a big one this time around.

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We just got ours. MGE bill arrived.

mooky, TV people call it a "tease" to get you to stay tuned for another hour.  When the weather is already happening, the call it a "lead".  This station has another cable channel (s) where you don't usually have to wait on the tease or the lead.

mooky it's adds drama and excitement.  I watched the "other guy" last night and he just kind of shrugged and threw his arms up at one point like he was saying, "heck I don't know snow or somethings going to happen".

********************

Hopefully that something is rain and then snow tomorrow morning:)

Jeremy

Lol. Nam looks good for snow. accualy 3-5 inches across the KC Metro

How much for us Gary or Jeremy?

Hopefully that something is rain and then snow tomorrow morning:)

Jeremy

**************

LOL hey it wasn't any of you guys don't worry.  

no 1 answered my question so I choose the Triple Stacker

im gonna get and by the time I get back I want to know from people if there gonna inject us with a poision

Meaning in small talk. Snow 3-5 or snow 1-3

Good afternoon Gary and Jeremy!! How are you guys doing this afternoon-you're not busy are you LOL LOL!!!! I know that you are enjoying the challange this storm is bringing-wow-what a complicated situation-much too complicated for my little hobbyist mind to wrap around LOL!!!!

So, just some observations of the looking out the window and a radar kind:

We are currently at 37 and it has began to drizzle here in SW Lawrence-man, the skies lowered really quickly here and it is really kind of foggy here. Yea, it is 37, but man it is pretty darned chilly out there today!!! Notice on radar that the rain is now moving through Wichita and man there is quite the band moving North right out of central Texas. Going to be a soggy cold night in the old river city!!!

As I said this morning, I am watching the flooding/road ponding issues here tonight-I was out all morning through most of Douglas County (had to take construction debris to the county dump from Lone Star) and our ground is frozen solid as a rock. Also, the back end of Clinton Resivoir is iced over as are the flood control ponds they built by the wet lands-the wetlands are also iced over. Many North facing yards and hills still have snow on them so if it rains with any itensity at all, it is going to run and run hard. Will be interesting to watch 23rd and Naismith drive tonight as it floods in a 1/2 rain in the summer!! Maybe I am being too dramtic with this and probably am, but any where between and inch and two inches of rain is going to cause some issues tonight-in my humble opinion-very humble indeed!! I love snow for sure, but that has nothing to with the fact that I really think an 8-10 inch snow in this situation would be less of a mess than 1-2 inches of rain if it comes hard.

As an aside: In my entry this morning I in no way was trying to say that the forecast was off or anything-if it came across that way I for sure apologize!!! I was just throwing out my usuall random observations LOL

Have a great evening-here we go again-another interesting fascinating storm to follow!!! Will be fun to see where it all goes!!!

Bill in Lawrence

Look at it like this when your a forecasting team who's been on a roll outwitting mother nature and predicting her correctly 8 times out of 10 the other two times she's going to put you in your place.

Humbled, stunned, silent, and yes, perhaps even a slight bit humiliated.

LOL

  light drizzle here in downtown KC

Even if the update is nothing new  Jeremy , something is better than nothing. It keeps us bloggers interested.

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I'll try...I'm by myself and trying to do a lot of other stuff.

Jeremy

35 degrees and rain......I hate KC winters.  Looks cold, feels cold....yet its going to rain more than snow

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But you don't have to shovel most of it:)  At least the rain.

Jeremy

Looks to me like we are just now starting to see a few (very few) drops of rain in the Plaza area.

Kind of like it's not sure if it wants to rain or not.

Just a caution to everyone that we've seen this same senerio for the last 2 weeks and I would expect you to see here or elsewhere, significantly lower snow totals than advertised.  The low is having a hard time getting here and when it does, will break through and move swiftly to the NE.  If the forecast holds, this is more of a rain event than anything.  If the NWS is deadset on anything more than 2" we either would be in a WSW or will be about 4:00.  I wouldn't get my hopes up unless you miss rain.

heavysnow said:
35 degrees and rain......I hate KC winters.  Looks cold, feels cold....yet its going to rain more than snow

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Hey I hear you I am really ready to toast!  After this winter I probably won't start really thawing out until it hits 90.

Just got into Blue Springs and it is raining steadily but nothing tremendous.

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Thanks for the report!

Jeremy

But I like snow Jeremy, so let me shovel!!!

Snow and Blowing snow advisorys for everyone west of Johnson County

You can see the low clearly near El Paso, Tx right now, isn't this storm more south than expected right now?

The 18Z NAM looks good for snow!
It still has us with .50-.75 inches of precip with the cold air in place.
The NAM might be correct based on past performance.

its gonna move north kid. My Triple stacker was good btw

Still 1.75 inch of rain and 2.4 inch of snow

heavysnow,
I am not certain of the exact position of the ULL, but the NAM seems to be fairly consistent on the precip amounts and snow potential for our area.

very light rain here in Parkville. Jeremy, Will Platte and Clay counties be in a snow or blowing snow advisory?

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Check out the new blog!

Jeremy

I am guessing that ULL means Upper Level Low

Yes, the NAM has been very consistent with this storm..... then again it was consistent with KC getting a lot of snow out of the last one and it went north....I hope this trends south

A couple of brief and light showers over here by the stadiums.  Streets are damp now.  I've been outside trying to re-tie tarps and do a couple other things outside.  Oh I'm soooo ready for spring, yard work this time of year is no fun!

new mini update!

In the water vapor imagery it seems that the upper level cut off low is drifting more to the east then previously thought.  It looks to be in the Big Bend area of Texas to about Midland.  It will have to begin an abrupt turn almost to the due north if its going to cut a diagonal path across KC again, meaning snow north and west, rain or nothing south and southeast.  I think the cold looks earlier and stronger and the low looks later and more to the east and south.  That would be a snowier solution for most of the KC area.  Now the question is am I seeing this with my eyes or with my heart.  Is anyone else seeing that in the wv?  Oh I just looked at the 8-14 day, Missouri is below temps and above for precip.  Might be a great period coming from the Feb. 24 to March 1.  I better look for those snow boots.

Do you think we will get to see any lightning this evening?  I just can't wait for spring/summer.  I've been waiting patiently since October.

A layman's point of view......

Television stations news broadcast have one reason to exist....attract viewers. Informing the public is a nice by-product of the deal, but if you don't get viewers, you don't sell advertising. If you don't sell advertising, the station goes away.

Some stations seem to think overselling the weather is a good way to attract viewers. That is true, to a certain extent. But I believe that weather only sells, in the long run, if it is believeable. The viewer has to have a reason to watch station A over station B...and an accurate weather forecast is a big part of the drill.

The weather person can be warm & fuzzy, look good on camera, or have an engaging personality....but their forecasts have to be accurate. And then, in a crisis, they have to be informative, with equal doses of urgency & calm.

I now bypass the 9 pm weathercasts, because while the personalities are engaging, or look good on camera, the forecasts aren't believeable. And I don't want to hear other people mocked on air. If I can get a reliable, believable forecast from an engaging, thoughtful, energetic personality, why on earth would I look elsewhere for critical information?

I think it says alot that even though I don't watch alot of NBC (but then, who does?), I always make it a point to turn to '13' on my cable box at around 10pm.

And please....if Topeka is in a Winter Storm Watch, and KC isn't...its not Channel 41's fault. Try as they might, Gary & his crew don't actually make the weather. They just do a darn good job forecasting it.

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Thanks for the post.  This is challenging, but we hope everything works out like the forecast:)

Jeremy

Well just musing over the 3pm forecast updates from Wichita and Pleasant Hill.  Let the tweaking begin as NWS forecasters try to catch up the the changing track of the upper level cut off.  Cut off means that the weather feature kinda has a life of its own, its really not in any uniform upper air current, and in this case the cyclonic figure this one is cutting seems to make it strong enough that it will go where it wants too.  Lets just sit back and see if the forecasters can stay 3-6 hours ahead of it.  I am betting on Ma Nature to win out with this one.   Now back to those boots, I may need them.