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What a beautiful, sweet dog!  Did you say Breezy was still in training?  

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Thanks!  Breezy is great with her tricks and getting better with people, but a bit scared around kids.  She just turned two and she is maturing, but for now it is best to keep her at home.  Stormy and Breezy get along so well, but Stormy is the pro as she learned from Windy years ago.

Gary

It says zero comments when Lori and I put something on the blog.

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It usually takes about two minutes before it is posted.

Gary

Gary:

Good chilly morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at 24 degrees with a fairly stiff North wind-it is for sure not any where close to the coldest morning of the season but it will get your attention!!!

What an incredible/interesting storm this weekend-the moisture with this storm for February was just unreal!!! Lawrence was close to some flooding issues!! So many thoughts and so little time (I'm sure the bloggers are breathing a sigh of relief there is not much time!! LOL) The one thing I can't get out of my little hobbyist mind is what the difference Saturday night into Sunday morning would have been if we had that cold air sitting in the Dakotas right now-man!! For sure, it is not that simple and if the cold air was there the track would have been altered significanlty, but to me, it just really accentuates the fact how important the timing of cold air and moisture is for this area. Crazy stuff!!!

I have not even looked at anything beyond this past storm so I need to catch up-that includes my score card with the LRC-I am way behind in everything right now-darned job!!! LOL

Great pictures this morning-that is fantastic!!! Again, it was just awesome following this storm on the Blog-you, Jeremy, Brett, and Jeff have created a fantastic place to follow/learn about the weather-just awesome!!!! Kudos to all of you and fantastic work with the forecast as always!!!!

Have a great day-looks to be another interesting week!!!! As always thanks for reading!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Yes, it is a strange week and later this morning I am going to go into a key ingredient to this weeks weather....the upper ridge over Canada.  The pattern continues to cycle and this is the part of the pattern that brought us warmer weather the last time through, but not this time.  I will explain in a little while.

Gary

All but right on with this one!  Great job!  It's 23 in Platte City with 2-3 inches of snow.  We had 5+ inches of snowFALL yesterday, with 5 inches on the ground right when the snow stopped.  But the snow was so heavy, it weighed itself down in a couple of hours to 3-4 inches.  I guess snowfall is different than snow accumulation.  Now with the little afternoon melting we have 2-3 inches on the ground.  Sloppy but I'll take it.  Just not as good as the powder.  We built a giant muddy snowman, but it was just a little to sloppy on our hill for sledding.  Plus we would have taken an ice bath in the cul-de-sac when we got to the bottom.  Oh well, it was one of the most beautiful snows to watch.  By 6 am we had an inch.  At 6:30 am, it looked like snowballs falling from the sky.  At around 8 am, I had to take the truck out to play.  3 inches on the street.  Slick stuff.  Drove 2 miles to get coffee, almost got stuck 3 times, saw a dozen more that were stuck, and had to drive in reverse a block up my street to get home.  I almost wanted to walk home in the winter wonderland.  However, I am a man, and I couldn't come home to my wife without my truck.  She would have rubbed that one in for a while.
Fun times!!!    
Sitting at 38 inches of total snowFALL in Platte City, hoping to break 50!

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Wow!  Thanks for your total.  This storm did it again!  A very similar snowfall pattern.

Gary

How confident are you on this Thursday storm I keep hearing talk about? I'm supposed to fly back into KCI around 5pm Thursday and I'm wondering if it's going to affect my travel?

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Check back in around noon today.  I will go into the potential storm after the new data comes out. 

Gary

Gary 1-4 and no more at my house near World's of Fun.  I am impressed.  The snow was all melted in my front yard yesterday afternoon.  It was a beautiful snowfall.  My dogs enjoyed it.
As of this morning, does the next storm stay on the same track and hit St. Joe again?

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They all seem to be doing this.  By this afternoon we may be able to get a better feeling on what this next storm will do.

Gary 

Gary you are the man.Great job on this storm .But thats nrmal for you guys!!  Can I ask a spring question?   When are we going to get normal,avg temps for this time of year? I coach 3 soccer teams and getting any kind of practice outdoors has been very hard.  Just wondering if you see a rise in temps in the near future..Thanks for being the "weatherman in my pocket"  No reason to be scared by that comment Gary!

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Thanks, I won't be!  And, we know this week looks very cold.  If you look at my long range forecast from last week there is a lot of concern that we will have more cold than warm weather for a long time. But, the coldest part of the pattern is due back in around 15 to 20 days from now.  Between now and then we will just have to have a couple of smaller warm ups.

Gary

Gary,

Great job forecasting this weekend's storm. You and the team "nailed" it. We had 3" of wet snow [now gone] where I live in OP. From all of my years living in Wisconsin, this weekend's storm in Kansas City reminded me highly of either early winter season [November] or late winter season storms there [March, April]. Certainly, our sun here is now higher in the sky and the days are longer and because of this added warming, this only makes it more difficult for snow storms to form here after 02/15. From here on, we will need an ample supply of cold air if we are to get a snow storm. Now, I start getting nervous abouut ice storms in Kansas City. I look forward to hearing more about your thoughts for the potential storm for later this week.

Thank you for sharing the fun photos...

Bob

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Thanks Bob,

Remember our biggest snowstorm in Kansas City history happened on March 22nd, 1912. But, you are right we will need Arctic air.

Gary

Light Snow falling in Lansing, KS yet blue sky's over head.  Very pretty

Spring anytime soon?
Once again the SE Metro is left holding an empty shovel. Amazing driving to work and heading from SE Blue Springs and arriving downtown to see snow and piles left from plowing. For the rest of the metro that seems to miss anything exciting this winter we are ready to move on to Spring, the rest of you can build snowmen, sled, plow, and do the FUN STUFF we miss out on each storm. Indeed the wet winter is much needed for Spring to do its thing, but this is really, really getting old.
Do you think the snow gods will give us at least ONE decent snow before we are through?????? even 2-3 inches is consided monumental at this point.  

Good morning weather team!! It is looking beautiful outside....blue sky for now. I do see some clouds to my southwest though. Recieved about a 1/2 inch of snow over the weekend but is was melted within a few hours of falling. One thing is for sure though....we are wet down here. My rain guage broke from the rain being in it and then freezing so I have no idea how much rain I really got. It is frozen at the .70 mark. ....I guess that could be right. Well I hear my girls fighting...need to run. I feel your stress of girls Jeremy...LOLOL!!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

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Monica,

Good luck with the girls! 

Gary

Was bowling league last night and was unable to provide end storm totals.

Grandview =  1 inch rain.   1 inch snow

Have a great day Gary and team.

Bill

I am flying out from KCI early in the morning on Thursday, so please tell me any winter precipitation won't start until later on that day!

Gary, Stormy is a beautiful dog!  I had the pleasure of meeting Windy many years ago when she did her tricks at an event you were at.  I love your dogs!!!!

Pretty much all the snow is melted here in Lee's Summit.  I'm sick of winter and so ready for spring.  Please bring in some warm temperatures SOON.  But having said that, congrats to the weather team on nailing another forecast.

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Thanks!  And, yes, Stormy is so awesome.  We actually used the LRC to help us pin down where the snow would line up! 

Gary

Great pictures of the kids at school and Stormy preforming, thanks for sharing.  My Windy is a bit like Breezy, still skittish around kids and strange dogs.  She loves doing her tricks for adults and playing with Hoss and Popeye (our other dogs) around here.  We'll stick with our classes and I'm sure as she gets older (she's just 1 1/2years) she'll mature and be less aprehenisve with new things/people.  Now, as for this weather....I've had enough Winter already, time to see some rising tempertures so we can dry out a bit here in Paola.  I'm going to go out and walk Windy in the woods before the ground thaws and we get stuck in the mud!  Have a great day.

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Yes, sometimes we have to help our dogs make the best decisions!  Breezy is so loving, but we have to keep her out of trouble.  She is doing so well!

Gary

Seeing a few snowflakes in Lenexa!

Ok, so this last storm on the 16th looked like Dec 22/23rd.

Here is what this one looks like on Thurs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_084l.gif

I am trying to find a map from the 25th-30th of December that shows this massive ridging...

I think it must be this one...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/getuadata.spc?MyDate1=071226&Time1=12&MyDate2=&Time2=12&Align=V&Levels=500  

So...if the previous storm tracked on the 22/23rd, that is about 55-56 days from Feb 16th.

This storm looks to be matching a pattern from 57 days ago.  

Does this seem right?  If in a cycle, wouldn't the whole cycle shift, and not parts of it?

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Scott,

This last storm was the December 22nd/23rd storm in the December 28th slot.  This Arctic blast is right on schedule as we are moving into January.  It is roughly, 50 days, not 56, 57.   It is so obvious to us.  I may even post some maps to show this today?  If I get time.

Gary

a few flurries falling in SE KC right now... 470/71 highway

Doesn't mother nature realize track season starts this week??? I think she is going through menopause! Someone give her a hormone patch and bring on spring!

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It is really going to feel good when it finally warms up.

Gary

Sun flurries in Lee's Summit!  Amazing to watch.  The sun is shining brightly and the snow is falling slightly... A poet and I didn't even know it!!

Good Morning Gary,

You have mail.

BTW, great job by Jeremy this weekend.  His show were great and the forecast was as good as could be.  I have never seen it snow as hard and as long as it did and get such small total accumulation.  The snow was very heavy and the temps were just above freezing.  What a storm to follow over the weekend.

Later,
Mike in Ottawa

1.25 inches of rain and 3 inches of snow yesterday!!

Gary:

My wife loved the picks of Leawood Elementary, she is a teacher there and was at your presentation.

“This last storm was the December 22nd/23rd storm in the December 28th slot.  This Arctic blast is right on schedule as we are moving into January.  It is roughly, 50 days, not 56, 57.   It is so obvious to us.  I may even post some maps to show this today?  If I get time.”

The last storm on the 16th of Feb equates to the pattern of Dec 22/23.    Ok.  That is 55/26 days.  But – it was in the Dec 28th slot, which would put it at 50 days.  

So, you are saying that the 22/23 pattern jumped a week into the 28th.  I am so confused.

If the previous storm matched the 23rd, how do you move it ahead in the pattern to the 28th?  Or..better – why?

I am glad it is obvious to you all..it is clear as mud to me- and likely many others.

So, for this upcoming storm, I was wrong to associate it to the 26th.  It should really be Jan 2nd, right?

I looked in that whole week of Jan 2nd, and did not find a related pattern.  Maybe I should apply the pattern I mentioned above for Dec 26th, and apply it to Jan 2nd?

If so…then, let me understand this.  Find the associated pattern 54-56 days previous, but then take it and move it ahead a week?

How on earth is this a cycle?

I agree there are patterns, but I am so lost on how this is a cycle.

“a round of years or a recurring period of time, esp. one in which certain events or phenomena repeat themselves in the SAME ORDER and at the SAME INTERVALS.”

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/cycle

I am at the point of giving up on the LRC.  I believe there is a cycle, but how the LRC is defined with a defined start time and end time – only one method of measurement [500mb charts]  and the method is applied is so very subjective and each year is manipulated in different ways.

Forgive me if in the future I don’t buy into the “why can’t you see it?” or “it is so very clear” or any communication indicating that a forecast verified because of the LRC.

I see the patterns.  I see how they seem to recur.  I see the longterm longwaves.  I do not see much beyond that so far.  And-I really am trying!  

How do you make the LRC more objective?  

I have a very open mind and am struggling to see how it works.  Just when I think I got it, dates shift or we have patterns “flip flop” or something happens that can’t be explained. It is no wonder to me that those with a met background who require much more quantitative data give up on this idea.

I will keep trying.

“Thanks, I won't be!  And, we know this week looks very cold.  If you look at my long range forecast from last week there is a lot of concern that we will have more cold than warm weather for a long time. But, the coldest part of the pattern is due back in around 15 to 20 days from now.  Between now and then we will just have to have a couple of smaller warm ups.”

So basically the groundhog was right, lol.  

Gary, Jeremy, and Team, poor jokes aside, I just want to say thanks for the blog! I know it invites a lot of criticism and scrutiny at times. I can pick up your forecast any time, but I come here to learn about the possibilities..  Times when your forecast says 2” of snow, I can come here and read that if a storm shifts north or south we might get a lot more. I find that information valuable, yet I know you get a lot of flack from people who think you are hedging your bets, or lose track of your real forecast when they read about the risks and possibilities. While storm forecasting is not exact, you do go on record when you give your forecast – your best bet. And you guys have done a great job with it!

Gary I know you can not be totally accurate. But when do you think we might really start to come out of this Polar HE double hockey stick? I am so very over this head bangin, thumb jammin wrist slitting cold....lol

Scott, glad to hear I am not the only one a little confused, although I think Gary has said that it  is more like a 50 day pattern.  

I don't know what that does to the "cycle" and how when its a warm up one time it can be a cold blast the next, but I am not the expert I just believe there is something to a cycle of weather for a run of seasons......1993 might be one of the best examples.  The Fall of 1992 was wet, the winter was wet, in fact I remember a article in the paper talking about wet the Kansas wheat fields were in Feb.

Then spring and then the Floods of summer.

Although I think that pattern of really wet started to change mid-way thru August but that was a long time and a lot of brain cells ago.

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It is complex!  There is more to it than I can even explain.  But, there is no doubt about it in our minds. And, we can show it.  This Arctic front coming down is directly related to the New Year's Eve Arctic blast and front.  It is absolutely fascinating.

And, I remember 1992-1993 well.  It was my first year in Kansas City and all of those storm systems were related that year, as all of this year's storm systems are related to each other this year.  They are all fitting the "long term" longwave troughs!

Gary

I was down by the Great Mall at noon today and came out and it was very lightly snowing and also sleeting, bouncing off the windshield.