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I like thursday and friday...

I wonder if I will see any snow today.....

Snow pellets in north Olathe.

snow flurries in Harrisonville.

The sun is SHINING in St. Joe.  Looks beautiful....to bad there isn't about 60-70 degrees accompanying it....It is nice to having it shine through the windows!

Thanks for the update!!

greetings,

been a while since i posted, i know its a little late...but here are the totals:

4.5" from the last storm.  that brings the seasonal total to 37.8" for fort leavenworth.

light snow showers this morning didnt add to the totals.  however, if we can squeeze out 2.2" later this week we will have 40" for the year! wow...

a warm up would be nice.  we have had atleast snow piles on the ground since the very beginning of december...

murph *********** I missed ya this weekend murph. Thanks for sending the total today! Jeremy

Gary and team,
The forecast was perfect!  I don't know how much rain we had here at the house since our rain gauge is put away for the winter.  We got dumped on yesterday with the two inches that you forecasted for our area here in the metro KC area.  Great job! :)

Kristi  

Looked outside and had a light snow shower (or pellets?) that moved thru and ended up with a very, very small accumulation on the deck.

So it sounds like traveling northward on I29 will not be a problem this weekend at all, right?

heavy flurries or light snow in Harrisonville..... its pretty..

Light flurries in mid-Overland Park, near 87th & I-35... I had to leave my home a little after 10AM this morning, and it was spitting something then, too... but by the time I got to I-69, the sun was peeking through the clouds!!!

Looks like my friends comment got deleted. Ohh well

anyway I dont see anything with this storm thursday-Friday

NEXT WEEKs storm looks good

I was just outside with my dogs a little while ago.  There were flurries coming down.

Kristi in south Raytown

I like snow but I also am hoping for spring sometime soon. When do you think we will be in a long period of warm weather?

NWS Hazardous weather outlook........


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. TWO
SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL COME AT US FROM TWO DIFFERENT
DIRECTIONS. ONE SYSTEM WILL COME OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
INTO CENTRAL U.S. LATE THURSDAY. A NORTHERN UPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS MINNESOTA. THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE AT
NEARLY THE SAME TIME AS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SYSTEM. THE COMBINATION
OF THE TWO SYSTEMS PLUS SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN
A WINTRY MIX FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS.
HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW. ALTHOUGH TIMING...STRENGTH AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE ARE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT TO UPDATES AS THESE SYSTEMS APPROACH LATER THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

MJ

So when you say "Blast" are we talking about 35+ MPH North Wind again?? Seems like every Artic Front has been strong and blasted us with the high winds.

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Yes,  It does look like 35 mph winds Tuesday night.

Gary

Thanks for all your hard work over the weekend guys.   Looks like another exciting week with up and down temps and once again, a storm lurking.    I peeked at the long range forecast and it is amazing to watch the storms lining up and repeat in their formation and phasing.   It will be a wild ride the next few weeks and the LRC is really showing itself.   This has been an amazing winter to be able to use the LRC, and it helped validate the theory.   Last year was so hard since the pattern was not very active.   I really believe every year will be more understood and other dynamics will be found to take it even further.

Great job this weekend Jeremy, you never let up and always answered every question again.  

Have a great week
Joe

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Joe,

Thanks so much!  Now, let's see how this evolves in the next two days.

Gary

Lee's Summit snowfall for the season thus far is at 12.10".  What a difference 60 miles can make one way or the other.  Harrisonville, 20 miles to my south has received maybe an inch.  Got the other way towards Leavenworth County and they've easily doubled that amount.  Pvt. Murphy has received nearly triple that amount.  In regional speak, a lot of areas have been left out of the snow, mainly areas just SE of KC.  Those NW have probably had enough of it.

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There is still a chance of one getting the south side.

Gary

Hurray. Another storm

I think the artic blast has just arrived in Sedalia.  I was out cleaning and detailing my car..It was 40 degrees with sunshine when I went out, it is now 30 degrees and the wind has picked up from the north and the snow flurries are flying.  I have to go warm up now...burr...

I'm so tired of the snow, ice, cold...sooooo ready for spring!!!

HEY PVT MURPH >>>> glad to see your back. Hope all is well with the new addition to the family.

CHFS327>>>>>>>>> Just say it now and get it out of the way for the week say you are predicting an Ice storm for Thursday..LOL

Earlier, I was "attacked" by graupel as I was leaving work at lunch time. I am OK. ;^)

Via the model runs, this next storm seems like a big "if" at this time. However, it is interesting to note how fast these storms can explode in development given the right atmospheric dynamics based on fast-changing conditions. I guess this is why Gary and his team are highly focused on the "latest data".

Bob

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Bob,

Yes, the "new data" is always so important!

Gary

Pvt_murph,
Glad to see you back! :)  I was wondering how you and the family were doing.

Kristi

Its amazing..

MO already has the third highest count for severe weather reports to date.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2008_annual_summary.html

bring on some spring the cold is old now.

 chfs327 >>>> why did you not say an ice storm? just get it over with now.

Nice work on the storm Gary & team. I was in Hawaii for a couple of weeks, and met a Navy meteorologist who said he was familiar with Lezak's theory, and occasionally visits the blog.

Gary, I know this has been an active pattern and you guys have been spending a lot of time on the short-term forecasts, but can you blog about what we might be seeing in the next 4-5 weeks? I'm getting anxious to start the yard work... And do you see any evidence of a repeat of last year's April cold spell?

thanks!

Mike

This thursday and Friday storm wont be a major storm

However next week....

Ice Storm

thanks for the kind words everyone! my boy is doing well...hungry, and prefers to sleep during the day instead of  at night :/....all is well though, thanks!

scott, interesting map.  the odd thing is...is that part of the country(OH river valley area and parts of MW) have had a really warm and rainy winter.  that whole area is below average for snowfall.  KC has had more snow than several cities that usually average more snow...like indianapolis, st. louis, cincinatti, charleston wv, toledo, oh...the list goes on.  the good news is that they are atleast getting rain, and hopefully that rain can work its way southeast, because they really need it down south.

I have been thinking about hosting a Blogger BBQ at my house in the spring when the weather warms up. I am floating this idea out there for the "regular" bloggers and all would be welcomed. When we sent my oldest son who was 14 at the time to Australia as a Student Ambasador we had a bbq here and we had close to 100 people.

Any way my idea was to have of course our fearless leader Gary here and would like some of the more knowlegable like Notes and Scott and others to come to teach us less knowlegable on how to read maps and where to get them etc. So many people come here and I see alot of the same questions like where do i go to look at the nam the gfs etc. I have a HD tv that we could hook my laptop up to so everyone could see. Just cover the basics. I was thinking that maybe Jeremy could be here and could do a live weather cast at 5:00 from here so he could attend.

I know I would like to learn more and with the spring storms that would be coming we could learn how to spot tornados and the like since people can't always get to a NWS spotter session. Any way just a thought to throw out there.

I would probaly do an RSVP thing to hold it to like 80 people or so.  Please give me feedback positive or negative and any ideas or thoughts you might have.  weatherblogbbq@live.com

I do have volleyball and basketball available if the mood should strike anyone. I believe it would be informative and fun to meet everyone behind the names. CHFS327>>>> you would be in charge of the ice......LOL  

Scott (The other one, not me) - You forgot to mention according to that map and data MO is leading in Tornadoes if I am not mistaken.

Does the storm that is forecasted for Thurs. correspond to the Dec.31 storm that produced 1-3" of snow in Northern MO according to the LRC?

I know it is still 4 days away, but the GFS is looking good for some snow.  Right now 3-5, but like I said Still 4 days away.

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By Tuesday we can see if there is really a good chance of snow.  This is a strange set up.  We often get snow from the strange ones.

Gary

Accually its looking real good.  

sportsfreaked,  not a bad idea.

sportsfreaked - I know Gary and team are working through some details as well. Might want to coordinate times.

I might be interested, but as far as teaching, I will leave that to others more qualified.  I certainly have a bit of experience, but would only have value in showing others what I look and and how I do analysis.

It certainly is not classical in the sense of the word.

ScottR - that is correct.  To date, MO has nearly 25% of all reported tornados.  When the jet retreats a bit, it should be interesting as this pattern may move a bit north.

I think many of us saw this severe potential very early for this season.  Where folks have been caught in the warm sectors and got rain instead of snow---that means something very different with severe weather.

;-)

Scott, have you looked at the GFS?

I think I saw Andrew try to attempt this earlier in the year, but here is something that might be interesting to watch.

Go to this SPC link.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/searchindex.html

Look at the days that impacted KS/MO or OK.  Count off days in the cycle/pattern.  This might give you some thoughts on potential storm days within a few days.  

When you click on an event, off to the left it has all the maps, sats, radar and skews for that event.  This will be very useful as we see some of these events again.

Just food for thought.

Or if you don't believe in any cycles, then it is still useful for post storm analysis and how to spot different features in a brewing storm.

I am probably the only one that has done this and found it useful.  LOL

Fire Dog, are you referring to the storm between the 20-22?  If so, I have been expecting it for quite some time.  I think it might be another typical storm we find in this year's pattern.

I haven't gotten real excited for a snowstorm in awhile.  I am ready for Spring.  I love tracking severe weather more than snow.  I am full for snow tracking.

;-)

Sportsfreaked- great idea and great offer - I would be glad to help as well- I have an infocus projector that could be used as well- I would be glad to help do whatever I could- both financially or otherwise- it would be a great time I am sure..
I will email you as well with my contact info..

JP

Scott, I do like both seasons.  I do plan on doing some chasing this year..  I might not have to go that far to do it.

Gary, what are the chances of an ice storm thursday and thursday night?

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Brent,

Right now, a very small chance.

Gary

I have a question for the weather team....why would some seek to knock holes in the LRC? Isn't it the role of every scientist to further the cause of his or her chosen field?

Seems to me that one of the biggest things missing from winter weather prediction is the lack of focus on it, as compared to severe weather prediction, and of course the dollars to go with it. If something as simple as a provable theory can help improve the accuracy of winter weather forecasting, why would anyone think that its a bad thing?

Its not like lives aren't impacted by winter weather...in fact, when one considers that an entire region can be crippled by a single winter storm, its pretty remarkable. What was the cost to the city, and airline industry, with KCI shut down for 6 hours Sunday? And could better winter weather predicting have lessened the impact? It is rare that an entire city would be affected by a single severe weather event.

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Good points! 

Gary

GFS does look good for snow but the NAM does not for Thursday into Friday

"Brent,

Right now, a very small chance.

Gary"

why does the 7 day not show snow then?...at 26 degrees????

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Brent,

Because southern areas could see sleet.

Gary

"..why would some seek to knock holes in the LRC? Isn't it the role of every scientist to further the cause of his or her chosen field?"

Forget 'knocking holes,' most scientists in the field of meteorology won't even entertain such 'theories.'  Such repeating cycles, considered back to the time of Benjamin Franklin and Thomas Jefferson when meticulous daily records first started being kept, have long been theorized.  The New Farmers Almanac continued in this tradition.  However, actual scientific research has long debunked any such repeating cycles that can be utilized to forecast day to day weather.  

This does not mean than some profit oriented broadcast meteorologists might not want to continue such self-serving 'theorizing.'   And, of course, people are free to believe what they want, actual evidence or not.  But as for being provable or non-provable science, the 'LRC' is anything but such a thing.

The complexity of the Earth's atmosphere far exceeds any simplistic repeating upper air chart 'repeating cycles.'  Otherwise, such easily identifiable repeating cycles would by now have long been in wide usage in weather forecasting.  

Of course, there are those who want to believe that the NBC Action News Weather Team is in the forefront of forecast meteorological research.   They can also believe in the tooth fairy and Santa Clause, too, if they want.  

After all, its a free country..

If not a very smart one.

They have long been debunked.  

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Except for the strong possibility of the LRC being real.  It exists.  We have the evidence and will continue to share it with you.  And, we have used it to provide us with a big forecasting advantage, not just over our television competitors.  It is up to you to decide if  you believe it or not.  I am not going to make you believe the LRC.  But, we will continue providing, what we feel is overwhelming evidence that this year's weather pattern is cycling.  And, it is around 50 days.  It is predictable and it has some forecasting potential.  We have shown this to be true!

And, Siraluce,

What do you think my motivation is for sharing the LRC with everyone?  I believe every one of your assumptions to be false.  I only do it because we see this happening and the rest of the meteorological community can benefit from this. 

Gary

“I have a question for the weather team....why would some seek to knock holes in the LRC? Isn't it the role of every scientist to further the cause of his or her chosen field?”

I want a shot at this one.  Why would some seek to knock holes in the LRC?  Two reasons.

First – “Peer review (known as refereeing in some academic fields) is a process of subjecting an author's scholarly work, research or ideas to the scrutiny of others who are experts in the same field.”  This is part of the process used in science to prove out a theory/concept.  This leads into the second point.

Second – And this is my biggest point.  If the LRC is proposed as a theory that can be a “major scientific discovery”, and promoted both on air, in this blog, and to peers in the AMS and NWA as a viable theory, you better believe it will get critique.

Weather has been a fascination of man for eons.  Much study, analysis, and subsequent developments have transpired.  The concept of cycles in the atmosphere is not unique.  What is unique is Gary’s take on it.  To promote this theory as heavily as it is done – I think it is more than fair for those that don’t understand and those that disagree to contest such claims.  Gary does a good job at trying to field the questions or to show proof, but the medium of a blog is not always the most conducive in trying to convey this theory.  

I do believe in a cycle.  I am a very strong proponent of this.  I am also one of the strongest critics of the LRC.  I believe that with continued focus and ongoing dialogue, that the LRC can get better.

It is more than fair for everyone to develop their opinions, and that is what is good about this blog.

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Scott,

Good points!  This debate will go on for years to come!

Gary

Yikes siraluce!  I thought I was pretty strong with my response.  LOL

Siraluce, I am not sure I fully agree with your statement

"However, actual scientific research has long debunked any such repeating cycles that can be utilized to forecast day to day weather."

Analog Method:
The Analog Method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining today's forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar (an analog). The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past.

This is used and accepted within both Met teaching and in practice.

Gary, Is there a good chance for snow for the northland Thursday-Friday? Is it going to be a small or signifigant storm or do you know yet?

And here come the monday night debate teams....

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Brent,

Yes, the debate is open!  Let's all try to be nice!  Maybe I can change the subject?  How much snow do you think Harrisonville will get the rest of this season?  The over under is 4 inches.  Can you imagine 4 inches of snow?

Gary

Brent - unfortunately - often these debates involve combatants that are blind folded and end up knocking each other out by hitting heads.

LOL

Myself not excluded in this.

we just need siraluce to respond....lol

I see Notes lurking.  I am awaiting that entry as well.

LOL

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No stirring the pot!

Gary

Based on the LRC, any snow producing storms this winter will have a minimal if any impact on Kansas City, and the most Kansas City can expect from any one snow is about 3.5".

Analogy:

Poof is the new word for Snow in Kansas City.

However, with the amount of precipitation and the amount of temperature contrasts Kansas City has been seeing this winter, Poof is certainly not going to be the new word for Severe Weather and spring flooding...

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You are probably right about your spring prediction.  But, this is where the LRC is hiding.  Do you think it is just a coincidence that all of these precipitation events, with very few exceptions, keep lining up in the same spot? 

Gary

I think Harrisonville will get 2.7 inches of snow the rest of this season Gary.

I hope I'm wrong

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Brent,

I hope you are right!  Can you imagine?  You could have 4 more 1/2 inchers.  Ouch.

Gary

Scott,

Analogs are fine.. and they are a generally accepted way to analyze a pattern to come up with a more accurate forecast than the models might be able to produce by themselves.  Another term for it, however, is 'pattern recognition.'  Another might even be 'synoptic meteorology.'  Some of the worst busts are when forecasters rely to heavily on computer models instead of using their brains to utilize analogs, pattern recognition and synoptic meteorology.

Sure, general weather patterns repeat - eventually.  No observer of weather would dispute this generalized claim.  The question is, when will the pattern 'repeat' and to what specific degree?  

Analogs are used in the near term as a system evolves to put a bit of 'reality' into computer prognostications.   In fact, tweaking model forecasts appropriately with analogs or pattern recognition is essentially what the job of a meteorologist amounts to.  Otherwise, there would not be a need the 'meteorologist' except to assist in developing better computer models or in short-fused situations requiring 'now casting.' such as with severe storms.

But to utilize such concepts in long-range forecasting is another matter entirely.

Gary,
Did you do a lot of work with Gary England while you were going to OU?  For those of you who don't know, Gary England is a cutting edge on-air TV meteorologist in Oklahoma City, OK.  In fact, he was the first on-air TV meteorologist to have doppler radar back in 1982.  I was reading "Storm Warning," which is about storms, with a special emphasis on the tornadoes that hit on May 3, 1999.  There's quite a bit of info about Gary England.

Kristi

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Kristi,

I was very fortunate to work under Gary England for 7 years.  I was his intern at KWTV in Oklahoma City in 1985 before getting my first big break in 1986.  I was part of that #1 station and gained such a valuable learning experience. Gary England is the best at covering severe weather.

Gary

Gary-- You Go Boy!!!!

Give me the kool-aid - I am a believer in the LRC--especially after being here in KC for 2 years and participating in this forum and having never hearing of your theory before that..I am convinced you are onto something B>I>G> Huge!

Bring on the warm part of the cycle!!!

JP

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JP,

Thanks!  It will become more and more obvious to others in the coming years.  I will find better ways to show the LRC, and hopefully some potential of proving it.

Gary

If Gary is looking for professional acceptance and agreement with his theory, he will have to take the time to publish academic research on the topic - research that is reviewed by fellow meteorologists prior to acceptance/publication.  Period.

To this day, that appears to not be a priority.  I realize it would take time and Gary's current job is very demanding, but that doesn't make up for the lack of a true scientific analysis of this idea.  Maybe a break from the radio broadcasts and the elementary school visits with the dogs would be necessary.  But clearly those are important to Gary too.  Again, it is about priorities.

Earlier this season, it was mentioned that this theory has been followed by Gary and Jeff since something like 1992 or so ... that's 16 years.  With 16 years of data and analysis, I would think that much more conclusive set of data would be packaged up via even an informal formative publication made available for meteorologists such as myself if this theory was something that held water.  To this point, I've only seen a few maps stitched together when they happen to agree, but when they don't, they aren't posted or paid attention to.  This past summer, some graphs were posted that an intern put together, but I still don't recall anyone ever being able to make heads or tails of any sort of cycle from said graphs.  They looked complex and quantitative, but seemed to contain little if any support for a cycle.  

Like I've said many times, my mind is open on this whole thing, but I still have yet to see conclusive evidence.  While I may appear to be swimming against the current here, I know I'm not alone, as I've heard of no other meteorologists such as myself (other than Gary's current and former coworkers) who are on board with this idea.

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Notes,

I am ready to write up a report on my research.  And, hopefully I will have the time to do this very soon.  I will make an attempt at this during the summer.

Gary

Regarding the current weather:

It was earlier stated that this past weekend's storm was related to the pre-Christmas snowstorm that gave us all a white Christmas and dumped 8-10" from Topeka to St. Joe.  That storm (12/22) and this weekend's storm (02/17) were ~57 days apart.

Above you place the cycle at around 50 days. Do you give it a plus/minus of 7 days now?  Other features you cited as being around 46 days apart.  So that means you've got a spread of 11 days.  

To say that two events line up "right on schedule" is disingenuous at best, in my view.

If these events line up "right on schedule", you should have been able to call them out months ahead of time.  And no, I don't mean with a "4-7 storms over 25 days" kind of claim.

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Notes,

Amazingly, I think it is very close to 50 days!  A couple of days here or there.  It is something I will include in my report.

Gary

Well I'm starting to get excited, but I'm trying to hold back right now.  LOL The computer models are having a rough time figuring out this storm, but the precip looks to be there and the cold air looks to be in place, but I'm hoping that the warm air advection does not overpower the cold air then be stuck with rain, or ice.  I would like a snowfall over 3 inches at least LOL :D I cant think about that yet until later on though, but it is getting exciting, is this Thursday storm in your LRC pattern this year?  I just would like to know, as of right now I hope it stays cold enough for snow, and enough precipitation to be looking at a snowstorm, wishful thinking right now. ;)

If you want a good laugh, take a look at the following video.  

For some background:  Last spring, Gary England and his station in OKC put together a weather promo hyping their severe weather coverage in an attempt to get more viewers.  

The Daily Show's John Stewart took a stab at it on his program:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Pf3rcT-gu-Y

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I've seen this before!  I will go and look at it again later.  It is a bit over the top!

Gary

How come your most recent 45 day forecast did not mention the last very wet storm we had?....

you issued it Wednesday and we found out about this big storm on Thursday...

Gary,
That's great that you got to intern under and work for him. :)  It's fascinating to read about how he changed severe weather coverage and how it has helped all over the US.  I see a lot of similarities between you and Gary England. :)

Kristi

Has there been any research done showing if areas just north of Kansas City get the main LRC track during La Nina winters and areas just south of Kansas City get the main LRC track during El Nino winters? During winters with no extreme SST anomalies, storm tracks are variable.

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I have always said that La Nina and El Nino influence the pattern, but something much bigger is going on.  The LRC storm tracks set up with very little influence from La Nina.

If this was not the case, then Madison, WI already at nearly 90 inches of snow this winter will also have as much snow with the next La Nina.  But, you see they won't.  The LRC will be different the next time through.

Gary

Of course I should be in charge for ice.

But Seriously folks I dont see any accmulating snowfall for thursday-Friday

I only see a dusting right now in KC with most of the storm being FRZ. rain and Sleet finally changing to snow around friday morning with a 1/2 of an inch here and Up by st. joe they get 3-5 inches of snow

Right now I just dont see it happening folks

Could you imagine a bloggers meeting now?  Get Scott, Notes, Bill in Lawerence, Gary and a couple of the other more "weather savy" posters on a round table and sell popcorn and sodas to us bystanders  so we could watch the fireworks.

-------------

This could be one of the special parts to our meeting!

Gary

Scott - Thanks for those links. They were very interesting to read. Pretty easy to spot a cycle/trend in the data.

I am not looking forward to another wet, soggy spring. Since the Adrian/Harrisonville area got left out of the snow this year and have already had flooding rains, I'll bet we get slammed with the severe storms this year as well since the severe storms to the south will probably lift a little further north.

I am looking forward to reading the discussions and learning more about weather forecasting. I have already learned so much from all of you.

so I have a question, do  you personally think your LRC Theory is better for Long Range Forecasting than short term forecasting?

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John,

Great question.  I think it has value in both, but when a storm is approaching you still have to get down to the basics of forecasting the weather.  The LRC can be just one of the many tools at this point.  So, it likely has much more value in the longer range.  By December, once we pinned down the cycle and firmed up where the main features were located it has completely out performed any other long range forecasting technique.  (Scott, don't start fuming)

Gary

I know it's only one run of one model, but did you see the 18Z GFS has 8"-10" of snow over the area by noon Friday? Mike

http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_96HR.gif

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Yes, so you better wait another few model runs before even thinking about it.

Gary

Ill be the ICE cream Vendor.

Something will happen Thursday because I have to drive from Adrian to Maryville on Thursday to pick up my son, then drive him down to Springfield on Friday for a scholarship interview. And of course the return to Maryville is Sunday. :P

NOTES>>>>>>>>> That clip from the dialy show is funnier then he**. I needed a good laugh thanks for sharing.

notes in the margin, i was just about to add that on here. England is one of the best hypers for weather. I am sure he does a great job but I wish that it wasnt about rating s when it came to the weather. how about you just tell us and be straight. no big snow or big flop, your day could be dangerous tomorrow, who knows, tune in at 9.  

i enjoy weather and hearing everyones opinion on what is going on. I dont believe in the LRC 100% but think it has some valid points. I do though tend to watch this channel for the weather. (unless i read the blog and feel that they are being  a bit overconfident than i watch another station that seems to me to be just as good and not so much into hyping everything ) I have read the blog for several years and seen things be right and wrong. it happens and will happen, weather has MN to blame for that. either way its nice how everyone cares on this blog and if you need information when the news is not on this is a nice resource without the hype.

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Well, hopefully you will see that we don't "hype" ever!  I may get a bit excited at times, but when it comes down to it I will only tell you what we believe will happen.  We haven't been perferct this season, with a couple of misses, but overall we have handled these storm systems well.

Gary

Notes, that video link you provided is very amusing. Gary England did not have much a response to that on his broadcast, did he?  Well, what could he say?  That said, the local production values, as Steward alluded to, were fantastic.. better than 'Twister' I would say!

Anyway, thank you for providing the link.. by far the best laugh I have had today.

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Now I have to go and watch it again!

Gary 

May I interject, you are all correct the LRC/P IS A THEORY with now 16 years hopefully of computer compatable data or maps from area observations St Joe, KCI MCI. JCAIR, Top, and a few more in the area.  

Notes, Scott and siralance are all correct; Gary can't quit his day job [well i guess he could!] what needs to happen is for a student at OU, SLU, PENN STATE or some other meterology school or an entire class is to digest the data and compile a criticial analysis of the LRC 5-6 learned men on this blog and 80 hobbists just carry the ball.  It needs to be an independent review.

Parts will be conformed others maybe debunked as a lawyer these studens as future peers are the JUDGE for the first critical analysis.  Then these findings go to the AMA  or NOAA or out to Gary for further refinement. . .

This dialogue while deep, for the hobbist is IMPORTANT AND VALUABLE FOR GARY. . . . I give this analysis;  I am working a case and sometines get tunnel vision and bouncing things off another Attorney is a VALUABLE TOOL....HOPE I AM NOT OUT OF LINE. . . TED  

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Ted,

No, you are in line!  I had a student from the University of Oklahoma do research for me last summer.  We graphed all of last year and there are some interesting findings. But, I must find much more time for this.

Gary

Anyway. right now with the link with us being in the 6-10 inch band is just down right Bogus. If we even get anywhere near that amount then I will run in short shorts from my house to Mid America Nazeriene University (which is a good 2-3 miles from my house) and back. Thats if we get 6-10 inchs of snow out this knucklehead storm.

This year's favored storm track, which might well be influenced by a moderate La Nina event, has unquestionably zeroed in on Topeka and St. Joe.  But if you look at the entire track you will see that some storms originated near Dodge City and some in the Wichita area.  Some favored northeast Iowa and most of Wisconsin, and some hit northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin and Michigan.  The only pinpoint consistency is right here is our area.

Thanks for sharing the clip Notes- that was a good laugh...

Have a good evening--JP

Back to Gary's change of topic. I doubt Harrisonville and points south will get 4 inches of snow this season - we just have to set our sights on next year! We might get 4+ inches of rain every week this spring though if the cycle continues its current path. Can you say ark? roflmao

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Maybe you will be surprised.

Gary

yet Isnt betty a womans name

Excatly.

Noweven if this storm comes in. the 84Hr. models are false and overreacting models that dont know a bottle from a Nickle

Wait till tuesday or wed. to make ur pick and then throw the current model out the window.

Trust me this is gonna be alot of hype
then 2-4 inches of snow

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But, who is going to hype it?  This is where we have the problem.  It will not be us!

Gary

Gary said:

"Amazingly, I think it is very close to 50 days!  A couple of days here or there.  It is something I will include in my report."

Then how do you make that mesh with earlier statements you made regarding this past weekend's storm being related to the pre-Christmas snowstorm that gave us all a white Christmas and dumped 8-10" from Topeka to St. Joe.  That storm (12/22) and this weekend's storm (02/17) were ~57 days apart.  

"Very close to 50 days.  A couple of days here or there" ??

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Notes,

I have explained this and I can show it to you.  This last storm looked very similar to the one on December 22nd/23rd, but it happened in the part of the pattern that produced the December 28th storm.  We are now going into New Year's Eve and New Year's Day during the next two to three days, which coincides perfectly with what happened after the December 28th storm.  So, it looked like the December 22nd/23rd storm, but it wasn't exactly that storm as both of those storm systems fit the "long term" long wave trough.  It isn't perfect!  Just look at what happened on December 31st and what is happening right before our eyes.  Pretty close. 

And, then what happens next will be one of those situations that you will call a "stretch" from the way I will explain it.  The amplification of the ridge north of Montana happens this time, allowing the southern branch to load enough energy to produce a storm.  The last time through the cycle the ridge was flat so the same shortave road through and over the ridge and we warmed up.  As the pattern continues to cycle it is these brief amplifications that will disguise the real broader picture.  I am not kidding when I say this storm for Thursday into Friday is caught in the flow.  It doesn't really want to be there, not that it has a mind of its own.  You may remember last year in December when there were two huge storms in the southwestern part of the nation that bombarded Colorado with huge snowstorms.  These were also a result of the amplifcaction to their north, and the next time through the cycle, the flow was flatter and those storms didn't repeat.  This doesn't mean the pattern wasn't still cycling.  You just have to be able to figure out how it will act each time through.  The best example will be in the May and June parts of this pattern.  This is the time of year that seems there is no way it can be the same pattern, but I will show you that it really is!

Gary

Also -

If yesterday's snow was that of 12/22 and the upcoming storm is related to "early January", what happened to the 12/27 snow this time around...if I remember, there were several inches over much of the viewing area.

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Notes,

LOL, I answer one question and then here is another.  As I said, this was really that storm!  I know how this sounds, and it is very difficult to believe, but we do believe it.  It is easy to see when you see what happens next, right on schedule.

Gary

Hey Gary, don't worry about me getting modelitis! I don't trust the models as far as I can throw the Empire State Building! (Well, OK...maybe just a little bit of modelitis...)

Notes. Not every path has a Conclusive number

Just like the Number 11. 11 is a Prime number which is only 1 and itself. It is a random number but you can not determin the days of each storm cycle. you add the days and then divide by the number of days it takes to get the days ahead. Now it might seem like it makes no sense to you but it does to me because ive had most of my knowledge sucked away during the 5 day weekend where i sat down and watched Larry the cable guy while tracking storms here and there and Playing Texas Holdem Poker

so it all depends on the Average of the 2 numbers and then u take the track which cycles and u do the days inbetween. You add those numbers again and divide by 2 and you got the cycle

exp: 52 days for first cycle. you take the 17 days inbetween cycles add the 52+17=69. you trake 69/17=4.05  you take the 4.05 and subtract that ammount from the 52 days which equals 47.95

It takes Garys Cycle 47.95 days to cycle around. Knowledge is Power

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Man, now I will have to spend an hour thinking about this.

Gary

But, who is going to hype it?  This is where we have the problem.  It will not be us!

Gary


Now The Bloggers usually seem to hype it. Ill say something about a Random Ice storn and people will be freakin out asking others about a random icestorm. People on this blog need to Calm down and not overreact when they see Blue on the GPS map or whatever the 3 letters are.

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Yes, I forgot about you guys.  Let's try not to get to crazy with our forecasts until we get into Tuesday night. 

Gary

yeah we bloggers tend to hype things up don't we?
people who come on here and see us freaking out about one very impressive model run, they get scared...lol

we need to tone it down...

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Exactly!  I am testing you guys to think it out and see what we have to say, read other discussions if you want to, but don't forget to look outside.  Rule #1 of forecasting it to always look outside because you never know.

Gary

lol. Not nessessary You Brent. You accualy never hype up anything on this bored. <.<

Now its ok to be hyped on some weather reports when it becomes true. Thats why im saying that only 1-3 inchs will fall.

Oddly, as I was re-reading the definition of the analog method, it is very similar to the LRC to the extent of taking a previous pattern and applying it in the future.  I think we can agree that the LRC does use patterns.

I think where I disagree and some others may as well, is the definition of a cycle.  Right now, I don’t see a clearly defined cycle in the LRC.  I have tried to make this point in the last few days.  We have seen the LRC defined  between the 47-58 days..  Notes more elegantly described it above.

In a general sense, it could be thought of as a loose cycle – at a macro level.  I am not sure how it could be used to provide a forecast to a day by day level or for a specific point.  I think at best right now – the LRC has validity long term with trends.  I hope in the future we will be able to drive this down closer to a finite timeframe, but it is still a work in progress
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You may have seen 47 to 58 days.  But, I haven't.  It has been a much more narrow window, around 47 to 54 days, and really close to 50 or 51 days.  And, the LRC doesn't use a previous pattern at all. It uses this year's pattern that doesn't start cycling until October or November (or August according to you). 

Gary

"bored"

that would be "board" I believe?.....a little confusing...

Yes. Im sorry that I used a random wored. because i writ the book of not spelling words right.

SCOTT, yes a work in progress and not in my discipline. . but value, as to long range you say and there in lies its first use.  I do not know about last year but Gary made some bold calls on artic air and storms in his firstv 45 day call. . . and has done it a second time as well. NWS and others we all calling for a warm up when we tanked to -15 and -12 with higs of 1 in STJOE over MLK weekend validation is what it is called. . .

TH and FRI well with 46.2 inches at my house officially 30 inches at the Airport an impressive total throw itself in two small events of 3-4 inches and one wet big one Eastertime [ 21-28 March] and I GET TO 65-70 inches the airport 45-50. . . TED  

hymonyns [sp] is piece or peace; or board or bored; council or counsel etc.

Ok, if you more learned bloggers start talking "macro" and "micro" patterns I will be totally lost. I agree with an earlier post, put 5 or 6 of you on a stage to discuss weather patterns and the rest of us can watch while eating popcorn and drinking sodas.
All I really want to know is if I have to shovel snow for my scout camp on March 13.

chfs327 how much soda with caffene did you drink in the past five days or did you eat 30 lbs of chocolate?   I don't do numbers except to add and subtract I have an imperical mind!

gary what is your gut  feelling on the anount of snow on this next storm thanks

And again I aid i would be the "Ice" Cream Vender. yea.

Gary,
When you are ready to publish your work on the LRC....I support your findings 100%.  It is really too bad, other college educated weather people can't get on board with this theory.  Instead, they bash the theory on their blog and don't want to anymore about it.  BTW: That "other station" got a blasted e-mail from me concerning the LRC etc...
Keep up the great work and I am glad I made the switch to NBC News, as well as many of my family members...you are gaining a fan base, Gary...

Brian in cold, ready for Spring St. Joseph, MO  I know, I wish we got all the snow last year...when you got it, but this year, we can't get rid of one storm, before snow starts to fall again.  We just need more time between storms!!!! :-)

A comment on storms taking on simlar patterns from past storms.  This weekends storm took on an almost unreal resemblence to the strom on 12/22.. In that strom it started out as rain which lasted most of the day Saturday and there was some heavy rains at times then the transition occured and the snow fell.  KC and northward got a pretty good snow fall, KC southwards including Sedalia got about 1 inch.  Thinking about it, I see the resemblence.   So which storm does Thurs. and Fri. resemble?  Any thoughts to that?  

chfs327 how much soda with caffene did you drink in the past five days or did you eat 30 lbs of chocolate?   I don't do numbers except to add and subtract I have an imperical mind!

Well. I havent had alot of soda. I had some 7-UP and some Mike and Ikes

Overall I used Numbers and Used a Callebracket equation to fit that Problem

I solved the equation

Now. gary with the New NAM coming out right now what do u think about snowfall totals for this thursday-Friday storm

To simply kristi:

If you like to read about weather....Try "The Childlren's Blizzard".  The first 1/3 of the book is a historical perspective of early forecasting and how they did it without the use of computers and other luxuries...like phones!....a great read on a winter's day.  Tragic, yet informative.

Thanks, Mary, for that info!  I will have to look for that book.  I love to read. :)

Kristi

New Blog!