NBC Action Communities

GOOD DISCUSSION

Hopefully with this storm we will be able to get some more snow

3-5 inchs looks Probable.

     Over 2,500 hits and 100 comments? WOW!!! and there wasn't a storm today, Look like alot of people are buying in to the LRC and turning to the most accurate, Thanks for bring the best forcast along with the passion

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Your welcome!  The challenges are again approaching with this next storm.

Gary

I guess the new blog entry has ended focus on the LRC and on the new storm?  If so, I will save the continued LRC conversation for another time.

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Scott,

We will get into it again soon! 

Gary

Does it look like the precipitation will wait until the afternoon or evening on Thursday to begin?

This is the BEST weather blog ever!!!! Great discussion from everyone.  

I need to get to bed...school tomm....at least we aren't making up snow days YET.  I have a feeling though, that is going to change, especially when we get into March.  Fun Fact: when my mom went into the hospital in 79 to have me, it was 70 degrees and sunny.  When they took me home three days later...BLIZZARD conditions!!!! That was in March.  March can be sneaky!!! :-)

Have a great evening everyone!
Brian in St. Joseph, MO  

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Brian,

Get a good nights sleep!

Gary

Hopefully during the day into the evening then through out the night.

im going to bed because I got to dress up because I will be meeting some teachers

I enjoyed the discussion.  I will have to view that segment from "The Daily Show."

Mary,
I ordered "The Children's Blizzard" from Amazon just a few minutes ago.  I never knew about that.  Thanks for the recommendation!

Gary,
Are you going to have another intern this summer to help you with the LRC comparison data?  

Kristi

I am teaching a unit on letter writing right now and came up with this for a type of business letter. I would like to get your opinions, since it concerns the LRC.

I have been watching your weather forecasts with interest over the past year. Using your LRC, (Lezak Recurring Cycle) you have been very effective in long-range forecasting. The LRC could become a valuable forecasting tool, but at this time, it still has a couple of faults.

Your theory of a recurring weather cycle appears to make sense, for the most part. The problem, however, lies in not taking into account the many surface variables that also contribute to the whole weather picture. In this area of Kansas and Missouri, you have three major geographical regions and two climate zones that meet. This meeting of regions would seem to change the path of every storm system that moves into the area via the old “Tonganoxie Split.”

In addition, you have said that this was a 50-54 day cycle, but at times contradict yourself saying that a certain system is the storm from 45-57 days. You also say that the time of the storms is correct, but the storm it resembles is from a date that doesn’t match up. This is very confusing.

Even though the LRC still has problems, you have to be given credit for being correct with the temperature variations. Every other station, including the National Weather Service, called for this season to be warmer than usual. You called for several bouts of Arctic air, followed by warmer temperatures.

I read your most recent 45 day forecast eagerly and am looking forward to seeing how accurate the LRC is over this time span. In particular, I await the last week of March for a major winter storm or blizzard.

Thank you for your continued patience in teaching weather enthusiasts about the LRC and the weather.

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I hope you won't judge the entire forecast on that one event, even though I am calling it the signature item.  But, it is still a 40 day forecast.  Anyway, thanks for your comments.

Gary

**I hope I don't get in trouble for bringing the LRC back up**

LRC...fact?  Fiction?  Revolutionary?  I think there's something to it.  I'm not going to lead the campaign for it or anything.  Now, what I will lead the campaign for is that Gary and his team...and NBC ActionNews....and this blog...are the most committed of any weather team in KC.  No other station in KC seems to come close to their level of committment and passion...from keeping folks updated to just educating people about the weather.  There is one station in town that I'm not even sure they have a blog...wait...I just went and checked...the Chief Meteorologist does not appear to have a blog...the weekday morning weather guy does, but he doesn't talk about the weather...and the weekend woman does, but it only has posts on Sat. and Sun.  Then there is another station that I don't think they have a blog, but the Chief Meteorologist who has a degree in Public Relations did have a link at one time to how her diet was going...I can't find a blog there though.  And then there is the station that does have a weather blog, but they sometimes only post once a day...if that!  There may be days when they don't post anything...that is unheard of here.  As a matter of fact, I just went and checked -- they did not have one post on Feb. 14.  And during storms, the updates are often not nearly as frequent on their blog.  

I worked with a guy and he said it best.  He said that he watches Gary because Gary seems so passionate about the weather and his job that he'd probably do it for free.  Would Gary really work for free?  I'm actually going to say probably not.  But does he seem to be the hardest working TV meteorologist in KC?  Definitely.  And I think this blog is a great example of that.  And I think it's great that a lot of weather enthusiasts of varying levels have a place to hang out.  That I am sure of.  As far as the LRC, the jury is still out...but at least we have a guy proposing a theory and a "courtroom" to discuss it in.  So not only is 41 the most accurate, but I would campaign that they are the most dedicated, passionate, informative and educational.

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Wow, excellent!  Thank you so much!  And, would do this for free if I had enough money in the bank.  But, I am not there yet.  Have a great evening and thanks again for the support.  I am on the air in a few minutes, so I better go.

Gary

Sorry - I should have added that I am trying to get them to back up their opinions as well and remain polite!

It's a letter, but I don't see how it's a business letter.  Looks more like fan mail.

I find the discussions on the LRC very informative. I think like I have said in the past we are focusing on certain words and what their meaning is as it relates to the LRC. I think there is more common ground then uncommon. I think that Scott and Notes needs to take the data from Gary and track it and then present what they feel are valid and non valid points. Seeing that I have only been on here for a couple of months, if that, I do not know how long this discussion has been going on.

I think that Scott and Notes agree that Gary does appear to have an advantage in forecasting long term trends and short term over the competition. We must also keep in mind that he is an employed forecaster and at times he must present what the NWS has put out and he has to please his boss.

I like the way the discussion takes place as it is a healthy discussion and no one takes cheap shots at one another for the most part. I think that is why this blog is becoming so popular because you get to learn a lot and from different view points you learn how to read the data coming in. Everyone keep up the good work and the good discussions.

I can relate to Gary when he says I don't see why you can't see it. I see why Scott says he can't see it because of the cycle. I am very mechanicly gifted. I can look at something and figure out why it is broke and fix it. I can rebuild engines because it is so easy and I say I can't believe he doesn't understand what I am doing and my wife says because it comes easy to you not everyone has that gift. So is what I am saying is that everyone has different talents and if we all work together on the LRC maybe we can make it make sense to all of us.

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Good analogy!  And, not that I am super talented in this area, but I am a weather pattern expert as I have been studying the 500 mb charts since before I went to college, really since I was around 10 years old.  I can see the answer to the puzzle, but it isn't perfect.

Gary

Ronnie -I didn't put the whole heading for the business letter there as it would take up too much space. And a fan letter, technically speaking, is supposed to be written as a business letter. There are various types and functions for them

As this coincides with a science unit on weather, I want to make sure I have my info correct

I LOVE THIS BLOG!!!!

When i get on the computer i usually just talk to all of my friends and now when i get on i talk to my friends and i am on the blog for hours. i love weather and this blog is the perfect place to learn. i apperciate the weather team for having this open for me to learn and i agree 100% on the LRC.

David from Lee's Summit

Hey to all the bloggers.  I've been reading your comments for about a year and find it my time to join into the written conversations.  Live in Blue Springs, took spotter training a couple of years ago.  I was psychologically effected by the weather around 11 of years of age.  We had a huge storm in the summer of 1982 I believe, and living in NKC did not have power for 5 days.  Since then, I've been intrigued and frightened.  Definately appreciate your work Gary!!!  If my calling wasn't in the performing arts, meteorology should have been the next choice.  My parents are flying out of KCI on Thurs -any thoughts yet on the storm in regards to the airport and its ability to function that day??

Can you believe we got a dusting of snow on the ground here in La Cygne!! It came in around 6:00 pm and snowed big gigantic flakes. Biggest I have ever seen and felt... was out feeding hay and got covered in the white stuff in a short amount of time. Only lasted 30 minutes, but it was heavy enough that it is still on the driveway and porch.

reafamily, what you posted is not a business letter ... or at least it's not a good business letter.  It's aggressive, appears to serve no business purpose and contains quite a few grammatical errors.

I hope the storm will be able to produce 3-6 inches of snow across the viewing area

So tired of winter!  Trying to talk my hubby into moving back to FLorida, its not working.  I don't want to be in the icebox Gary!  Send the cold air back!  You southern viewers can have all the snow, please take it.

So tired of winter!  Trying to talk my hubby into moving back to FLorida, its not working.  I don't want to be in the icebox Gary!  Send the cold air back!  Your southern viewers can have all the snow, please take it.

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We will get some warmer air soon, just not this week.

Gary

If it is going to snow again, I really hope it stays in Kansas City. Everyone down there needs a little more snow. I'm getting a little tired of the constant snow along with all the shoveling. I think I might be ready for spring.  Of course that could all change should we get one more big snow storm, but for now I'm ready for the snow to go away.

Wow, I spend a couple hours doing chores tonight and I miss all the great discussions!

Warning, don't try to speed read the previous blog, my head is spinning, lol.

As for the coming storms, where's poofy dragon and dryslot?  I'm ready for some seasonal averages and clear blue skies.  :)

If this storm mterializes with snow for the viewing area, what will the snow ratio be?

Thanks, Eswar

sportsfreaked,
I appreciate your comments....  You have some great points.  But there is one point that I don't quite agree with....  Gary bases his forecast on the data he receives not only from the NWS (like the NAM and GFS models) but what his own computer model shows.  He does not base his forecast on NWS' forecast.  Gary does his own forecast.  It used to be that a lot of the on-air TV meteorologists used the NWS forecast but in this day and age, they do not.  The on-air TV meteorologists pass on the watches and warnings to us from the NWS.  

Kristi

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Kristi,

I won't mention any names but most on air meteorologists do use the NWS forecasts.  The National Weather Service does a fine job at forecasting, but this is where we are different.  We do make our own forecasts.

Gary

I am ready for some sunny skies and warmer weather. :)  But I know it is going to be awhile before that happens. :(

Kristi

To simplykristi:

Glad that you ordered the book!  Some parts are slow, but the explanation of the way they used to forecast the weather in the 1880's is soooo interesting!!  A great read for a snowy day.

Reading this book and the blog on the same day is fascinating, becuase I know that Gary is on to something.......it is like watching history unfold before your eyes.

Now we just need to get Gary to read it!!  ;-)

Welcome Weatherdancer-- I too am a dancer . . . and if I hadn't been into dancing I too might have gone to school for weather! Hmmmm- I wonder if I know you??? The performing arts community is a small world . .

Two blogs with great feedback from everybody.

I have been a weather junkie sense I was a little kid. Winter is probably my favorite season, but love spring-time storms. I thought I knew a lot about the weather till I came on this blog. I have learned a tremendous amount here and continue to do so.
Lets see what happens with this next storm Thurs/Fri.

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Thank you for participating!  Let's keep learning, having fun, and enjoying the weather together.

Gary

Finally we are having a solid winter. I will take cool pleasant 30s over 90+ for sure.
This is more of a "Midwest" style winter compared with a "Plains" winter this year.
Topeka has actually had more snow than Minneapolis!
Madison, WI has had about 60 inches more snowfall than MPLS.
This has been a crazy winter in a lot of areas.

simplykristi,
I still prefer temperatures around freezing compared with weeks of 95F+ with high humidity. The summers around here are much to long for me. I am still looking at movivng further north, though.

Hello, man crazy day, power went out a little bit for a couple of times, weather related? I don't know, but really just enjoying the continuous white landscape, amazing, although it is almost to the point in some areas of being a "glacier" where the thick slush is just a hard sheet of ice, neat, but dangerous, some side roads look like a frozen river of ice still here.  but one thing has got me scared... GARY EVEN SAID HE IS ALMOST GETTING TIRED OF IT, that is scarier than anything from the twilight zone;)  Well I got to get to bed, good night.

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Nick,

I said, almost!  Now, if I lived up in St. Joseph, I probably wouldn't be, but the farther south you get it is more frustrating.  All of these snows and yet my grass has been covered maybe once.  It's a different story just a few miles north.

Gary