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An Arctic blast is on the move

Good morning NBC Action Weather Bloggers,

What a winter we are continuing to have, and the next 7 days have more potential for two or three storm systems of varying strength.  I will go into the reason for this next week's bout of winter in a second.  First, it was amazing just driving to work yesterday.  This has happened with almost each storm we have had.  I leave Overland Park where the snow had pretty much melted Sunday afternoon.  Two inches had accumulated, even though I had 0.38" liquid from the snow.  As I went up Wornall passing 95th street the snow started to add up.  Every block, there was more snow.  And, by the time I got to NBC Action News on the Plaza everything was covered in white.  There was probably just one more inch of snow there than in Overland Park, but this is the 4th time this season, in this short distance from 95th street to 47th street that there was a one inch difference in snow.  South Overland Park has had 17.4" of snow this season while the Plaza has had 22.3" of snow so far! 

Look at the wild weather pattern forecast from the 6z GFS valid at noon Thursday:

Split flow has formed with a high over a low in the west.  The high amplitude ridge from Montana northward has allowed for a cold air source to provide us with these cold air masses this week.  The southern branch is providing a series of weaker storm systems that will be difficult to figure out.  The flow comes off of the Pacific and then breaks into the two streams.  One going up over the ridge, and the southern energy breaking off into these weak systems. The latest models have one storm moving by Thursday night into Friday, a second one on Sunday (likely ruining the warm up we had planned for late in the weekend and possibly bringing another chance of snow), and a third one moving across early next week.  The models are hinting at a chance of snow or a mixture from each of these southern branch systems.

And, it is 26 below zero over northern Minnesota this morning.  This is ahead of the Arctic front, ouch!  This next Arctic front will blast our way this evening passing through before midnight.  Wind chill factors could be well below zero on Wednesday morning.  Then, we will see increasing clouds and a chance of snow by Thursday.  It is still too early for a snow accumulation forecast.  The GFS continues to insist it could be 3 or more inches.  So, let's see how this trends today.

There is a total lunar eclipse Wednesday evening beginning at 7:43 PM, right after the moon rises in the east.  And, it continues for three hours reaching totality around 9 PM.  It will be something we will have three hours to experience. 

A total eclipse of the Moon occurs during the night of Wednesday, February 20, 2008. The entire event is visible from South America and most of North America (on Feb. 20) as well as Western Europe, Africa, and western Asia (on Feb. 21). During a total lunar eclipse, the Moon's disk can take on a dramatically colorful appearance from bright orange to blood red to dark brown and (rarely) very dark gray.

An eclipse of the Moon can only take place at Full Moon, and only if the Moon passes through some portion of Earth's shadow. The shadow is actually composed of two cone-shaped parts, one nested inside the other. The outer shadow or penumbra is a zone where Earth blocks some (but not all) of the Sun's rays. In contrast, the inner shadow or umbra is a region where Earth blocks all direct sunlight from reaching the Moon.

Have a great day.  We will have a complete update with our new data by early this afternoon.

Gary

Published Tuesday, February 19, 2008 5:43 AM by glezak

Comments

 

NotesInTheMargin said:

Just a quick note on the eclipse:  The times you have listed above are for EST.  Here in the Central time zone, the eclipse will begin around 7:43, totality will encompass most of the 9pm hour, and the moon will begin to emerge from the umbra by around 9:51pm.

For more on the CST times:
http://sunearth.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclipse/LEmono/TLE2008Feb21/image/TLE2008Feb21-CST.GIF

It appears as though clouds may be streaming in from the East as that next system approaches, so we'll have to cross our fingers for clear skies.  One thing is for sure though, viewing time will be COLD - temps in the teens!

--------------------------

Notes,

Let's hope that it is clear.  I will adjust the times!

Gary

February 19, 2008 6:49 AM
 

sertorius said:

Gary:

Good chilly morning to you sir!!! Currently sitting at a very chilly 14 degrees-but man, I love it!!! Am I crazy, yes indeed, but I know that in a about a month and half this winter will be fully over and I just want to enjoy it while it is here-just a fantastic winter!!

I wish I had more time and to be honest knowledge to really get into the discussions from yesterday but alas I have niether!! Great reading from yesterday and I will echo some of the other comments that I think you do deserve kudos for putting the LRC on a public Blog to be discussed openly-many I know in acadamia would never put something like this out in the public at this stage of the game-major major kudos to you for that!!! It says so much about your passion for the weather and to try and pass that passion/knowledge onto others!!

Ok, any Blog of mine would be remiss without a few random musings LOL-as always, I hope they make some sense!!!

1. I wonder if the snow chance for Thursday is not being modeled based on what has happened the past 2 weeks-i.e. the models are intensifying this storm a bit based on what happened with the past 2.

2. On the flip side of that, if one (ok, here comes the limb scenario full tilt-here comes the crack and the scream!!!) looks at the 500 ht. charts for January 1st at 0z, you can see the possibility of the split flow-the ridge is not quite as strong on January 1st as right now but it is there. Also, there was a weak ripple in the southern flow on January 1st but it was very weak-however, now, with a stronger temperature gradient that has developed between here and Texas I wonder if that is not juicing things up a bit. Does this make any sense?? I think the same situation was there on Jan. 1st as we have now, but we have a greater temp. gradient which has helped juice the situation up a bit since we are later in the year-I think??

3. Given 2, I wonder if we are not seeing a harbringer of March with this week-one thing the pattern has shown this year is that the cold air will get here in some shape or form and I wonder like this week, in March if we will be in the colder air sector instead of it being in Nebraska??

Ok, just some random thoughts-I am so buried at work that these are for sure based on a quick look at things and combine that with the fact that I am a hobbyist at best (who did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night) they should have been left in my mind!!! LOL But here they are!!! I hope they make some sense and are at least at the right stadium!!! LOL

Have a great day sir!!! So many thoughts on this winter-man, I hate to see it go, but as the Romans used to say about fame-winter is always fleeing!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

---------------------

Bill,

Very good observations.  First of all in early January we had the higher amplitude ridge but then it broadened out and there was no real split. The waves went over the ridge and we warmed up, and this time there is energy breaking underneath the ridge and this will trap in the cold air an bring us a chance of wintery precipitation. 

And, about your observation for March.  I do believe the very cold air generating ridge will form again into the eastern Pacific up into Alaska, right on schedule within three weeks.  But, if the flow isn't split the coldest air may once again be just north of us.  We should have the strongest baroclinic zone of the season later in March, and this is why I called for the potential blizzard near by between March 21st and March 28th. It appears we will have many storm systems between now and then, but the real energetic ones come with our series of four storm systems a few weeks out.

Gary

February 19, 2008 6:50 AM
 

Bob in OP said:

Gary,

My experience with "split flows" suggests that the storms that form during the split are rarely strong, more like impulses in the larger flow. The biggest storms are usually phased. Now, if we had some serious overrunning of the arctic air, we could see some accumulating snow from an overrunning event versus a classic storm set-up. Of course, I am still learning how winter weather behaves here in Kansas. I see a dearth of moisture here but in very cold air, an impulse can wring out a few inches of the dry, powder variety of snow. Brrrrrr!

Bob

------------------

Bob,

With the right set up this system could produce a major snowstorm.  But, it is very iffy at this moment.  Let's just see how it looks on the new data.  A bit weaker then there won't be enough flow to get the moisture up here.  A bit stronger, with a good track, then it sould snow quite a bit.  We should start to see how it is going to set up by later today.

Gary

February 19, 2008 7:42 AM
 

kw_jw174 said:

I am gone for a few days and lose my 60 degree day on my birthday Thursday.  Oh well, this winter has produced alot of snow and the snow lovers out there have to be loving it.  Someone should be enjoying it, I'm not.

While I wish severe weather (read tornadoes, damaging wind) on no one, it will be interesting to see how this years LRC plays into the spring severe weather season.  I don't claim to be even an armchair weatherman, but one would believe, according to the LRC, that at the very least, we should get alot of rain.

Keri

----------------------

Keri,

I haven't really analyzed the April, May, and June potential of the LRC, but just glancing at it I would have to agree with you.

Happy Birthday a bit early!

Gary

February 19, 2008 8:04 AM
 

wrdeming said:

Gary,

As always, I appreciate all that you and your weather team do for the KC Metro.  Your ability to bring us the most accurate forcast year-in, year-out is the exact reason I only watch your forecast.  As a side note, I must admit I was a little disheartened when I saw a competitor station using the names of the other forecasters in the metro.  I think competition is a good thing, but I don't think it should ever be brought into a personal context.  Maybe I am crazy or just being protective of our favorite weather team...  Have a great day!

Will

---------------

Will,

Yeah, I heard about that promo.  I think they thought that it was going to be the worst snowstorm in years on Sunday, or something.  I am not sure what they were thinking, but that must be what they are promoting. Oh well!  Jeremy Nelson did an outstanding job covering that storm on Sunday. I am obviously biased, but he is the only one on Sunday who didn't hype it up.  He even pointed to the correct areas just north and northwest and said these are the spots expecting the 4" plus totals.  Then, the sun came out, it warmed up and everything was fine outside by 2 PM.  This is how we cover the weather.  If it had been a much worse storm then we would have been all over it.

Gary

February 19, 2008 8:09 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Bring on the snow!!! Im going with a 3-6 inch band from KC northeast to kirksville. That is just my guess.

--------------------------

O.K.  I still say we should wait until later today, or more likely Wednesday before making any snowfall forecasts with this storm.  I may perhaps say that 1" or more is possible.  But, this usually drives the bloggers and viewers crazy.  It is still too early as this is a strange set up.

Gary

February 19, 2008 8:24 AM
 

Jayhawkie said:

Gary and weather team,
    I don't know a whole lot about the weather but I get the feeling this could be a very bad severe weather season this year for the area.  This makes me very nervous because I have a five year old that is completely petrified of any storms?  I know this does not have anything to do with the snow that may be coming our way, but it is just an observation of mine.  If you have time will you please respond.  Thank you--Melissa

------------------

Melissa,

Very often a wet spring could mean a lower chance of tornadoes.  The bad tornado days are when you have isolated supercells. We will see.

Gary

February 19, 2008 8:34 AM
 

frigate said:

Gary,

It appears for those of us who are warmer weather lovers have not much to look forward too other than spring officially is only a month away, though this year, I'm afraid we may be well into April before any real signs of spring begin to appear. I went back and checked my daily weather records and here in Grain Valley, since December 1st, 2007, I have recieved 7.53 inches of precipitation. WOW!!! It would appear that with this weather pattern and its continuation per the LRC, we may be setting up for a possible extreme flooding outbreak in the area.

Jeff

------------------------

Jeff,

It certainly is something to pay attention to.  In 1992-1993 we had a very wet and stormy winter, to be followed by the "flood of '93".

Gary

February 19, 2008 8:42 AM
 

Fire Dog said:

Well, the latest NAM is starting to come in line with the GFS.
February 19, 2008 8:50 AM
 

4caster said:

OK, a few things.  I am a little baffled about the current phase of the pattern.  If the numbers jive, we should be in between Christmas and New Year's.  I thought that this was the calm part of the pattern.  And yet we have storm after storm lining up, ahead of the BIG storm that I have progged for the 1st of March (give or take a day).  This worries me because as I look forward into April, I need this stretch of time to be DRY.  This is planting season for us and I need the ground to be suitable.  But that is a tangent.

Second, and I would think Gary would agree, the only way to perfect a theory is constant experimentation.  A scientist does not develop one new drug and not test it extensively before releasing it.  He verifies that the drug is safe, can be reproduced, and is not a fluke in the process.  He tears it apart and makes sure it is right.  That is what some of my fellow meteorologists are doing; tearing it apart and making sure it goes back together.  Why, you ask?  Because if this theory does work, then I want to use it for my forecasting.  And I wouldn't be trying to perfect this if I didn't believe in it in some way.  Years of sitting in a lecture hall teach you the basics of weather.  It's those basics that we use now to verify these theories.  

Now then, this week's storm.  Since I didn't have a storm to base this to from the past, I was a little off guard.  But, a 4-corner storm with a phasing jet always raises my attention.  Looking forward to the next few days.

OK, enough ranting, back to work.  Later y'all.

BAClair

-----------------

BAClair,

Good points, and the long range forecasts that we are making public are an experiment.  We are sharing this together, opening us up for a lot of critcism, which is fine.  So far though, the forecasts have been amazingly accurate.  Let's just keep going and then analyze the results.

We are actually in the New Year's Eve going into New Year's Day part of the cycle.  What happened next is easy to explain and show.  The last time through the cycle the energy did not break under the ridge and we had a dry and warm first few days of January. This time the southern branch has some energy but these storm systems don't really want to be there and this is why we have just weak precipitation potential from each of these.  And, it traps in the colder air.  So, everything continues to cycle.  The same specific things don't always repeat and this is what you must take into consideration when making the long range forecasts.  I try to envision these things as I have been working on this for a very long time.

Good luck at getting a dry spell.  It still could happen.  November was dry with this same pattern, but it will be very difficult for any prolonged dry spells through June.

Gary

February 19, 2008 8:54 AM
 

LSLinda said:

Gary, it just dawned on me that the dates you are prediciting a blizzard fall right around Easter (March 23rd).  YIKES!  So many people travel that weekend, including us and families flying in.  Let's hope it waits til the later (28th) end of your predicted window of time!

-----------------------

Yeah, don't worry about it yet.

Gary

February 19, 2008 8:58 AM
 

marlina10 said:

So it is safe to say it looks like the precipitation won't start on Thursday until later in the day?

-------------

No, it isn't safe to say this yet.

Gary

February 19, 2008 9:03 AM
 

ScottR said:

I saw the Promo in question earlier, this morning.  I found it in quite poor taste.  I did not see the need for a station to be breaking into programming to talk about a 2-4 inch snowfall.  I guess it was maybe because they were forecasting 6+ inches for the metro?  Hmmm kinda hard to give that amount at 10:30 am, when the snow is tapering off and there are 2 inches on the ground.

I guess we should all put on our helmets, throw a mattress over ourselves and hide in the basement for the next 7 months or so.

--------------------

We knew the storm would be over by 1 PM and that the sun was coming out.  But, we know how to Nowcast!

Gary

February 19, 2008 9:19 AM
 

Bob in OP said:

The latest GFS shows from .25 to .50 of liquid equivalent possible with the next event. This could be 3 - 5" of snow or more depending on the set-up, etc. The NAM shows less moisture to be available. Still, too early on this one. Recently, I think the NAM has been more dependable than the GFS.

Bob

------------------

Bob,

There is a lot of potential for this next storm, but there is also a lot of dry air to overcome.  The dry air isn't the biggest factor though. If there is any lift generated by various weak impulses moving through we will easily saturated the very cold airmass and ratios could be high.  But, will there be enough lift?

Gary

February 19, 2008 9:19 AM
 

BrianJayhawk said:

So I woke up this morning, read the blog then went out to start my car just to be surprised that this may have been the only Tuesday this semester that the sun was out and my car wasn't frosted over!!

The snow pack is more out here in Lawrence than at home in KC North! Also not a cloud in the sky!

Have a great day!

-----------------

It's warming up now!

Have a great day.

Gary

February 19, 2008 9:26 AM
 

Emmysmom said:

A storm on Sunday?  Say it isn't so!!!  I am so sick of snow.  I even took my "Let it Snow" sign out of my front yard on Sunday while I was shoveling.  I may never put it out again as I have seen enough snow this year to last me at least the next 10.  And I used to love the snow!  So far this winter, anything special I've had planned has pretty much been ruined because of the snow, and this weekend looks like it may be no exception...we are supposed to go to Lincoln, NE Saturday-Sunday to visit my sick grandma, but if a storm comes in, that wont happen.  

What you see potentially for Sunday, is it a late arriver, or would it ruin my travel plans?

-------------------

Sunday's storm is similar to Thursday's.  There are a lot of questions.

Gary

February 19, 2008 9:38 AM
 

beckysma said:

"ScottR said:
guess it was maybe because they were forecasting 6+ inches for the metro?  Hmmm kinda hard to give that amount at 10:30 am, when the snow is tapering off and there are 2 inches on the ground."

I haven't seen the promo, but I did see that forecast on Sunday morning.  It made no sense at all, I was baffled.

One saying no snow, one saying 6+ metro wide, and there is NBC, as usual, with the voice of reason.
February 19, 2008 9:40 AM
 

MrSteve said:

Not fun. Not fun at all.

February 19, 2008 10:07 AM
 

italianlawman said:

Gary or Action Weather Team

I have a flight out of KCI friday morning will the weather affect that?
February 19, 2008 10:12 AM
 

ScottR said:

lawman, I wouldn't think that the Thursday storm would have m uch imact on KCI.
February 19, 2008 10:42 AM
 

Fire Dog said:

If the GFS is right we will have a chance of snow almost every other day!
February 19, 2008 10:59 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

WOW...this winter has been just amazing....this has been a true winter for most people. Certainly the cold air has been in place and the precip has been unreal. Gary are you still pumped about this winter season or are you getting tired of it all yet? I can understand the ones up north being tired of it....have they even seen the ground since winter got going back in Decemeber? LOL!!!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

-----------------

Monica,

Honestly, I still am loving every minute of it.  Winter is my favorite season, but it can also be the most frustrating one to forecast.  At the same time, I have had my fill of winter weather.  I don't really want to let it go, but we know the warmer weather isn't that far away now.

Gary

February 19, 2008 11:08 AM
 

N2mountains said:

Thank you everyone for not getting overly hyped about the possibility of you know what on Thursday! For those of us in the SE corner of the metro that have really not had winter yet unless you call a dusting up to 0ne inch a snowstorm it helps us not get caught up in the blizzard of potential, which then leads to frustration and gloom.
I would imagine many are more than ready for spring, and I guess I am too if this is as good as it gets for this winters snowfall for my corner of the world. Just think, 2 months from now we will be cutting grass, leaves budding and flowers abound.
February 19, 2008 11:38 AM
 

reafamily said:

With the way my luck has been this year, we will get a major storm both Thursday and Sunday, simply because I have to drive to Maryville both days with a trip to Springfield in between! lol
February 19, 2008 11:54 AM
 

jesstone said:

Gary,
  We have all been down with the influenza bug that has wiped us out.  Just curious if you are still thinking that there could be a "blizzard" in the area around March 14-21st?  I saw you talk about the LRC for the next 45 days, and thought that was the time frame for it to happen.  Also, do you think Southern OP has any more chances for some white stuff?  I LOVE the snow, and have been sad seeing so much more go northward this year.  Thanks for working so hard for all of us.  It truly is fun to see just HOW MUCH you love weather.  Too bad not all of the forecasters truly have that love.  That is why NBC rules the weather patterns:)

--------------

Thanks!  Yes, I love weather.  I love winter, but I also will love it when it warms up.  I want to see smiles on everyones faces. 

And, the time frame was the 21st to the 28th.  We hope you feel better soon.

Gary

February 19, 2008 12:13 PM
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