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Nice blog....I just asked in the previous blog if the front was close- I thought it was and right on time- sooo Thursday might be a little interesting???? See you at 10..

JP

Gary does that mean we could have another 3 inch sleet storm down here in Harrisonville!?...that would be exciting!

 Good Evening Gary, with the cold front coming thur any flurries or anything tonight? Will the precip start tomorrow night or afternoon Thurs? Well it looks like more snow for here in Downtown KC?

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It looks like it will start Thursday, early in the day.

Gary

ICE STORM

Hurray. There you go That is locked in


Chfs327 has locked in an ice storm for thursday

i dont think it will be an ice stor. maybe Lee's Summit will get a sleet strom

    Any flurries tonight with the strong cold front?

Hey gary, just looking at the NWS in st. louis, they issued a winter storm watch for their area. Should we be expecting one any time soon?

i am going to hold my tongue until the 00z gfs comes out.  as it stands, the nam looks good, the gfs doesnt.  blend those two together and you get a ho-hum kinda day.

Gary, how long do you think it will be before we can hit the links again?

twister. It is very unlikely for us to be put into a WSW. Right now everyone is saying 1-3 inches for us.STL has a different set up with this storm where they could see 1/4th of an inch of ice and 3-6 inches of snow

overall its not gonna happen

I'm thiking this one may just miss to the south.

Gary, I'll help you with your job this time..

East side of town .5 " of snow

Lawerence 6 " of snow

:)

chfs, so far its hard to believe anything you type

I-44 storm event for thursday if it does not jump 200 miles north. . . all you whimps want summer . . . don't gripe when its 91 degrees...

I know you are a winter lover, Gary, but are YOU ready for spring?!!  Sorry if you already answered this:)  Kathleen

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Kathleen,

No, I am one of the 9%.  Winter is my favorite season.

Gary

whats the new data saying?

Heavysnow. The Possibility of a sleet storm would be fun.

where's fire dog at for the updates when the GFS comes out lol

stjoelawyer, I work outside everyday, I'll take 91 and relish it!

How weird is it that when the temps were around 0 degrees and the poll about whether you prefer 0 or 100 was run 54% said 0 yet in terms of spring coming it's only 9% in favor of winter.  That just doesn't add up.  Maybe this poll about spring was done too close to the full moon.  :-)

[high fives Gary for being in the 9% majority]  :-P

Im waiting for how big storm. this one will be to the south and west.

I love the heat and appreciate the cold providing snow is involved.  I hate sitting in my house with nothing to do outside.  When it is hot I can mow, garden, weed, run, bike, etc... That's why I don't mind the snow.  I can get out and shovel it.  Otherwise, the cold standing alone is blah.  

Interesting set up.  I am curious about the difference between the NAM and GFS as it depicts the moisture return.  The NAM positions the High pressure NE of us a bit further N than the GFS and HPC.  In the NAM, it allows the moisture return to pool along the gradients a bit futher north.  The GFS and HPC have the moisture closer to the 1-44 corridor.

Looking at the 48hr QPF, it looks like the metro gets about half an inch all in all.  I think that will be a bit high.  Unless this surface low bombs, I can't see it bringing enough moisture far enough north and pushing the surface high north.

I think we may find a three day total close to 1-3 inches.  You know..the standard.

chfs327, unless the 500 vort deepens and gets some help from its 850 low counterpart, I think that band is too far north.

   Im with you Greg, I also work outside and the I'll take the 91, WIMPS??????????Wimp work in doors

ok

Scott--I have missed your posts!  Thank you for weighing in.  (I haven't read  every single post these last few storms because there were just too many)

     St Joes Lawyer:  I was just joking, sorry

I say let's find out who the biggest winter weather fan is in all of Kansas City. Heck, I will take on challengers from all of the U.S. For years I collected any articles from papers from KC, Des Moines, USA Today, etc. that dealt with snow or ice events, cut them out laminated them and covered the back wall of my room with them. I used to draw my own snowfall maps, color them in and keep them in chronological order to see how much snow had fallen and keep track of patterns. I did keep snowballs in individual baggies only to bring them out in July one year, yes they had become ice balls by then but I was able to manage building a small snowman and suprising the heck out of the mailman when I put it by the mailbox on a 90+ degree day. I have built igloos, snowmen, snowstadiums. I have pictures of snowdogs, snowdragons. I want to build something bigger than "snowzilla" in Alaska. I once shoveled snow for 3 hours straight. Most people would say, "o.k. I've done that before". Except that we had received about 1/4" and I proceeded to shovel snow from my sidewalk, all of my neighbors sidewalks, 1/2 of the parking lot area of the apartment complex, the street, etc. only to walk it back to my small yard, pile it up and then level it to make it look like a fresh snowfall of about 2 feet. The next day the 1/4" melted and no snow to be seen except it was great watching people go by and look at the deep snowpack in my yard and have a look of "what the heck!" I got so excited one year driving to work that I drove off the road into a ditch only to whip the car back onto the road safely. What got me so excited? Out of the corner of my eye I noticed a drift of snow that had survived a warm up that had melted all of the other snow. I have been known to dress warm, put on my headphones listening to classical music, take a lawn chair outside and sit on the porch during a snowstorm. Oh the glorious, inspirational, and majestic feelings that brings on. This is only the tip of the iceberg winter fans!

what time is the eclipse tonight?

Vdo....it's tomorrow night

Should I expect to plow snow thursday, friday or both?

It looks like the 0z GFS has a little more snowfall than the two previous runs but it still has a lot less than NAM?  Are you leaning in the direction of the GFS or the NAM?

Thanks, Eswar

Take a blend of the two and you get about 1"-4" and no more.

dpollard, WOW!

The GFS has a break in the snow Friday morning for about 6 hours with about .14-.65 total QPF. The NAM is more bullish with .51-1.10 maximum QPF. Blend them, reduce by 75% for "problems" and you get around 2"-6".

"Poll results:  It is around 91% spring, 9% winter!"

This is just crazy. The REAL MIDWEST has been MUCH colder than we have been. Our winters are quite mild. The longer we can hold of the heat and summer the better.

OMG just saw a commercial on 5 bragging that they were the only station on sun. morning during the "snowstorm" Qoute:"not busby,lezak,thompson" I can understand a tornado threatning the area but to be on during a little snowstorm that produced 2-4 inches in the area, come on now katie.

Too many people around here dislike winter because you can't enjoy very many winter sports in this town. The cold air does not last long enough compared with the Upper Midwest or higher elevations out west.

Gary,
My TV died, so the blog is my only weather cast right now. When can we expect the storm to start Thursday (if it materializes)? I have drive from Adrian to Maryville and back Thursday, then drive down to Springfield on Friday. Am I going to be driving in the ice/snow/nothing? Thanks for the help.
Pat

In the Midwest, around where Jeremy is from, the current windchill is around -40F.

************** Here was the 10pm ob in my hometown! Yikes! WINDOM CLEAR -11 -18 70 NW31G38 30.16R WCI -41 The 11pm ob was worse! WINDOM PTCLDY -15 -22 70 NW26G37 30.19R WCI -45

If you don't like the "FAKE MIDWEST" then move!

dpollard- you are a true "winter warrior"

Great story..

Enjoy the upcoming storms!

Greg- probably more Friday than Thurs.

CentralOP...  http://education.yahoo.com/reference/dictionary/entry/Midwest

The real midwest...lol.  Perhaps you can lead the action to have KS and MO succeed from the midwest.  Perhaps we could join the southern plains?  Maybe this should have been folded in when the Big 8 became the Big 12.

LOL

I am calling for 1 to 8 inches on the next 3 storms!

I think you meant "secede".  ;-)

That was hilarious Scott!!!    We are succeeding from the midwest core as we are not worthy.

Gary,
I missed the news tonight, I sure hope you get a chance to update the blog, or maybe someone else can fill me in?

Thanks

how about heartland? why don't we call our selfs that, In reality the problem stems from the fact that we are on the "edge" of these traditional locations, we are on the southwest edge of the "midwest", we are just to the east, or on the eastern edge of the great plains( central plains), south of K.C. is just a bit to far north to be the south, even  the "midsouth". Truly we are just right in the middle so I figure if you want to say that we are in the "midwest" technically you could, especially if you live on the Missouri side just north and east of K.C. just that you are on the edge of it, but honestly these are just NAMES people have made up and my vote would be for heartland and this area would roughly extend from say Omaha, down to north of the Ozarks to central Missouri to maybe central KS. and south east Neb. and south west IA.  Oh well, one thing that I think will be neat tomorrow night IF it is not cloudy is having that total lunar eclipse with a full or almost full layer of snow on the ground that may look really neat, making it a truly rare experience I mean how often do we get total lunar eclipses with snowcover at the same time? I bet if anyone were to try and look it up it would be pretty rare!!

Scott,
I consider Kansas to be a Great Plains state without a doubt. KC is at the far southwest edge of the Midwest, and is also near the eastern Plains. However, KC is much more of a Plains city compared with Minneapolis, Madison, Grand Rapids, Columbus, etc.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:US_map-Midwest.PNG
"Differences in the definition of the Midwest mainly split between the Heartland and the Great Plains on one side, and the Great Lakes and the Rust Belt on the other. While some point to the small towns and agricultural communities in Kansas, Iowa, the Dakotas and Nebraska of the Great Plains as representative of traditional Midwestern lifestyles and values, others would assert that the declining Rust Belt cities of the Great Lakes, with their histories of 19th- and early-20th century immigration, manufacturing base, and strong Catholic influence, are more representative of the Midwestern experience. Under such a definition, cities as far east as Buffalo, New York and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania may be considered Midwestern in nature.

Certain areas of the traditionally defined Midwest are often cited as not being representative of the 'Midwest,' while other areas traditionally outside of the Midwest are often claimed to be part of the Midwest. These claims often embody historical, cultural, economic or demographic arguments for inclusion or exclusion.

Two other important regions, Appalachia and the Ozark Mountains, overlap with the Midwest, Appalachia in Southern Ohio and the Ozarks in Southern Missouri. The Ohio River has long been the boundary between North and South, and between the Midwest and the Upper South. All the lower Midwestern states, including Missouri, have a major Southern component, but only Missouri was a slave state before the Civil War."

Nick,
I think Kansas City is more of a Plains city compared with other towns further north and east. The Midwest core should include IA, WI, IL, IN and portions of MN and MI.

Greg,
I would very much like to move in the near future, but it is a long process...

radman22,
I don't consider this area to be part of the Midwest core. We are on the edge of a couple of regions technically... That is probably why our weather patterns are so hard to predict overall.

I would agree as of the last 20 years.   Before that,  we would have very cold winters with harsh conditions.   I assume the climate and the overall warming effect has what caused us to have warmer than normal temps overall the last 2 decades.  Just a slight shift makes all the difference.   If you look at this year, the western part of Kansas and Colorado has had much warmer winter with the ridge building and the high pressures staying to the east.  

Its very hard to compare this year to anything of recent memory as active it has been.   It will make for one interesting and dangerous spring.

dpollard-- um--WOW!!!!! You are definitely the biggest winter weather fan I have ever come into contact with. I just read that out loud to my husband... LOL!

CentralOP2, I wouldn't argue with that, I would almost say you could use the Missouri river as the dividing line from the "Midwest" and the plains.  The thing I think that keeps me from feeling like I am in the "plains" is that yes we do get the downslope warm ups and temp changes, but not to the extreme that they get further west, it seems like from west TX, up through the Dakotas, they all share the fact that they have, few trees, VERY INTENSE temp. swings, and VERY STRONG WIND STORMS fairly    often, and they are relatively dry climates, not a lot of humidity, that hangs around anyway.  Sure we get temps swings and wind storms, but not to the extent and frequency the farther western areas experience, Sure due to the proximity to that region if the weather pattern is right, we can ACT like the plains, have a dryer less humid weather pattern, yet we can ACT like the south and the midwest to if the weather pattern is right, like right now I would say that our weather in St. Joe has been acting "Midwesterny" if you will this winter with decent snow and decent cold, of course not to the extent that they are getting further to the north and east but if someone who lived say in South west KS. moved in to this area this winter they would probably say this feels like the midwest to them. O.K. once again I have rambled about semantics oh well, good night all.

dpollard - as my kids say, "you rock!"

Nick,
I agree with you for the most part. As you move further west in KS the winter averages actually increase because you have the downslope component to the wind more often, and also more sunny days as well. It is interesting you brought up the Missouri River because it acts as a fairly good divide for Missouri. Areas to the north of the Missouri River have a milder version of the Midwest climate. (Some cities in this zone would be Chillicothe, Kirksville, Macon, Hannibal, Maryville, and St. Joseph) Areas to the south in the Ozarks have an even milder climate because they are at a lower latitude and have greater areas of topographical relief and tree cover. This has more of an impact in far southern MO where you have larger elevation difference compared with the flatter Ozark Plateau.

Moving on to my next point. I will discuss the difference between the Midwest Core and the Northwoods. The Midwest Core is generally the agricultural heartland of America. It is also known as the corn and soybean belt. The Midwest Core as I have said earlier covers most of IA, central and northern IL, southern WI, southern MN, central and northern IN, southern MI, and northern areas of MO. The Midwest Core has higher annual precipitation than areas further to the west in the Central Plains. The Midwest Core also has higher average snowfall amounts compared with the Great Plains as well.  Summer temperatures are cooler in the Midwest, and several varieties of pine and spruce trees thrive in this area.

The northwoods is found north of the Midwest Core starting at around 44-45N latitude generally along and north of the Mississippi River Valley. Common vegetation types include pine, spruce, birch, beech, maple, and tamarack. This area has a growing season that is too short to support agriculture, and the soil is more acidic in nature. In this area you will find many freshwater lakes and bogs, especially in areas of northern MN and northern WI. Some examples would be Leech Lake in MN and Vilas County WI.  Tree farms are common in this area as well as some lake homes. Another favorite are the taverns and supper clubs that dot the landscape, especially in rural northern WI. Rest stops are called "waysides" in this state. Michigan also has the northwoods landscape, generally at the same latitude as the other two states. That state has a more general forest cover as the Great Lakes moderates the climate across a wide area. Winter temperatures are cold, but the fluctuations are a little less extreme compared with the northwoods of MN.  

I enjoy winter almost as much as dpollard, but I do dislike strong winds overall.

That was an awesome, funny, and quite entertaining post dpollard!  I hate winter, but I love your enthusiasm for it.  I can relate b/c I feel similar about severe spring/summer/fall thunderstorms.  They rev me up and I derive energy from the 'enormousness' of them as you do from snowflakes.  Wx just plain rocks. (unless it hurts people)

Gary:

Good cold breezy morning to you sir!!! Currently sitting at 12 degrees this morning with a fairly stiff North wind-it will get your attention out there this morning for sure!!!

I have stated the past few days that I am buried at work and indeed I am, but man I just can't stay away!!!! LOL So, once again, some random observations this morning (oh boy, here we go again LOL)

1. As of 5:00 A.M. the true arctic air is just now blowing through here-at 4:00 A.M. we were at 18 degrees and the winds really just picked up-now at 5:00, we are at 12-6 degree drop in 1 hour-impressive indeed!!!

2. Looking at the 10Z surface data, the front is now central Oklahoma and you can really see how the true colder air is somewhat lagging behind the front-as of 10Z Pittsburg, Kansas and Rolla Missouri were still sitting at 32 degrees-quite the difference. It also appears that the front is somewhat getting hung up in Central Oklahoma-will be interesting to see how far south it makes it today.

3. With number 2, the Arctic High at 10Z was at 1037 MB sitting in the North East Corner of North Dakota-where will it track and how much further south will it make it. As Scott said last night, and in my humble hobbyist opinion, this is a key: how far south will it actually make it?? If the models have this wrong, then the moisture return will be different-this will be interesting to watch today!!!

4. Looking at the water vapor imagery, it appears that our lift provider has now come ashore and is just East of LA-indeed, radar shows a fiarly good line of mositure has developed in the Sacramento Valley into the Sierras-it appears to be fairly strong right now but the models do weaken it quite a bit as it comes across the Rockies-another interesting thing to follow and now that it is on shore, the models may have a different read on it. Also, on water vapor, there appears to be quite a bit of Pacific Mositure flowing into Texas right now and it looks as thought the Gulf may be opening up.

5. Looking at the next 48 hours just in and of themselves, there are many players on the field: how far southt will the front actually get? How far South and East will the Arctic High actually go? How much will this upper level energy really weaken as it comes across the inner mountain west and how much lift will it really be able to provide to tap into that mositure in Texas? Will the temp. gradient help juice it up a bit?? Its like a lead into As the World Turns!!! LOL

6. In the end, I think the next 48 hours will be interesting for sure and the models may waffle a bit on the next few runs as all of this gets thrown into the equations. These types of situations have in the past really produced for us and of course at times they have been huge duds!!! It just appears that on water vapor this morning there is moisture-how far north can it get and how strong will that high be will be interesting to follow. Again, timing and the strength of the cold air-we have the cold air now, but is it too strong??

Ok, once again, I have gone off the deep end!!! LOL I just hope some of these random observations are on track-but man the surface data is really interesting this morning seeing how the real cold air has kind of lagged behind the front. Just fascinating!!!! Not much to amsue me!!!

Have a great day-bundle up this morning, it is cold!!!! (but I love it!!!) As always thanks for reading-another fun time following an event on the Blog-wouldn't want it any other way!!!! What a great winter!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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The storms are lining up.  The NAM is consistent and impressive.

Gary