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Hey Gary I have it figured out.  Since all the models are a little fuzzy on this one and it appears that that Springfield NWS is more aggressive with their watch and their forecast.  Maybe this is the one that will sneak into the southern forecast area and dump that nice little 4-6 inch event on us beginning in the morning.  I guess I am in that 9% I still like the white stuff.

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I am with you, and this one could be the one that gets the south side. Let's see how it looks in the next few hours.  The models still want to bring that sleet/mixture northward which could dash your hopes.

Gary

Gary:

Good Morning again!! I hope you got some sleep last night!!! How was the walk with Breezy and Stormy? When I was out it was still a balmy 18 degrees LOL Now we are approaching the single digits!!!!!

I just have to say this again: the water vapor imagery is pretty cool this morning-you can really see that ridge over British Columbia and see our flow comming right off of Great Bear and Great Slave Lakes-I go fishing on Great Slave Lake every couple of years (my family has a lease on a cabin up there-long but fascinating story and it is just beyond words beautiful up there) and we have always called it the ice box of the Northern Hemisphere-when we get a flow from there man watch out-get your coats!!!!!! You can also see a pretty strong low trying to crash into the Gulf of Alaska-pretty cool loop this morning!!!!

Have a great day-hope you had a good walk-it is for sure refreshing outside!!! Off to like Socrates corrupt the youth of America LOL I just hope parents don't decide to give me some hemlock!!!! LOL

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

It is cold.  Breezy and Stormy came right back inside, and now they are pestering me.  Yes, the watervapor loop also shows the system heading our way.  If it is just a little bit stronger then we will have a significant snowstorm/sleet storm.  The new data will trend in one direction or the other, so we will have a stronger handle on Thursday soon.

Gary

It looks like there will be coupious amounts of moisture in the air as the southern jet draws up moisture from the Baja and  the southwest.  I hope we have a nice dumper of snow tomorrow and not all sleet.  

Sunday's snow storm was very interesting because the size of the snow flakes kept changing.  Brett said he would try to address my question on what determines a snow flakes size but haven't see it as of yet Gary.  Do you have time to give a brief description this morning please?

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If you are speaking of a single snow crystal, they rarely get bigger than 1/2 inch in diameter.  But, snowflakes often come in agglomerations as many crystals come together to form much larger snowflakes.  They can get to as big as baseball size, but this is extremely rare.

Gary

Gary,
    You said, " If it is just a little bit stronger then we will have a significant snowstorm/sleet storm."
   What needs to happen atmospherically to strengthen a storm?

Matt

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Matt,

One big thing wrong for this storm is the fact that the Arctic front is pushing way down into Texas. So, the baroclinic zone at the surface (the cold front) will be separated from the upper level storm.  The upper low is not very strong with to start and it likely won't quite be able to pull that front back to the north which would then allow the storm to intensify.  This is why we will have a weakening storm as it passes us on Friday.  And, this is where we just don't know how strong it will be.  If it holds together then it will pull some moisture from Texas northward into the cold air and this will create heavier precipitation amounts. 

Gary

 With what all the models said I'd guess an average of 2-3" of snow.
I've seen the ends of lunar eclipses before but not the beginning, I'm
exited
     Byan.

 P.S. with the 45 day forecast you ahave now, who will get
the biggest storm with the most snow?
when?

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It is rather obvious that the storm systems are not stopping.  And, we still have that series of 4 storms due in the second half of March. But, who will get the biggest snow?  I don't know yet.  Highly likely the same areas that have already been hit.

Gary

I would be happy if it all stayed south of the city. I'm supposed to fly back tomorrow afternoon from Memphis. Either way not looking good for me. They are predicting some freezing rain down here. So what are my chances?

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You will get back.  It won't be the slushy snow that caused the airport to close on Sunday.

Gary

Gary:

Considering all the winter activity we have had thus far, do you anticipate this Spring will be the same? ie: above average moisture, more violent weather?

Might be a good topic on-air ... yes?

Thanks

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We will issue our spring forecast sometime in March!  This active pattern will not calm down during the spring.

Gary

5 different models and essential 3 different forecast snow fall totals.  And people think snow forecasting should be easy.  Problem is if we get any snow during the day it doesn't even take 1" to cause all sorts of problems on the roads.

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Especially with the ground being so cold.

Gary

I noticed last night one of your models has me in a sleet mixture. All I need is one inch of snow OR a sleet event and school will be called off for the FIRST time all winter. My hubby is a teacher and the kids are just begging for a day off...not to mention the flu is spreading like wild fire down here and they all need a break from one another to get healthy. LOLOL!!! Sure hope the trend continues. How was your cold walk? :o)
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

My gut feeling says this push of cold dry air is too strong to allow for significant snow, especially this far north. Dewpoints are below zero now.  

5.3 degrees at 0630 this morning 2 miles south of Reno.

Gary,

It is too cold outside.  I can't wait for some springtime temps.  Could you get the temps up for the first week of March?  My buddies and I were planning on getting to the links some day that week.

I am a little concerened about the amount of precipitation that we have had this winter and how that relates to the floods of '93.  Have the northern states been affected by the wet weather also?

Jason

Gary,

Thank you for sharing the different model run projections. Based on my untrained review, this is starting to set up as what I like to call an "overrunning" event. I hope that the arctic air is deep enough in the atmosphere in this area to produce only snow versus a mixture or all sleet. If we get a thick enough layer of warm air over a more shallow layer of arctic air we could have a real messy situation to contend with. Regardless, right now it looks like a close call between snow, snow/sleet or all sleet. The latest data will be critical. Please keep us posted on the latest developments and your interpretations. Thanks!

Bob

Got all the way down to 3 in Platte City this morning.  Wind chills had to be 15 below.  I stepped out on the deck to breath it. Didn't have any shoes, so I could only hack it a minute.  Man I love this stuff!!  So I'm hoping for a 3 incher on Thursday so I can get some sledding in.  That last snow was too sloppy.  Have a good day all!

I didn't submit a vote yesterday for spring vs. winter.  However, if I did it would have been for more winter as I love the cold & snow.  After this morning though I think I would vote for spring.  It was too cold to be enjoyable.  Plus, when it's this cold all my animals have to come in & it's a little crowded trying to keep everyone from annoying each other.  

Hey Gary,

I checked out the NAM and it's blowing up a 10 inch band of snow right through the northland, with everyone else in 4-7 inches!  How possible do you think this scenario is.

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Suds,

One big problem. The NAM also is saying it changes to sleet south and east of I-35, yes the  usual spots get all snow.  I will talk about this later.

Gary

1 degree right now at the fort...this could be the coldest day of the year(11 has been the coldest high yet)so far! amazing...

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PVT Murphy,

It is cold, and you should get more snow on Thursday.

Gary

Hi Gary.  I heard you on AM radio this morning say that it is looking like the snow/sleet line will be right through Kansas City.  What do you see for Lawrence?  And Bill, do you have a snow total?  Thanks!

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Yes, the line on the NAM is right through the city.  This will make it very difficult for meteorologists to predict this one. 

Gary

Good Morning everyone yesterday I said I wanted winter to stay for a decent snow. Let the dogs out I change my vote to spring.
GARY can you take the temps off of the weather page and just put
VERY COLD..LOL

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Yes, that is a good idea!

Gary

Now. Since this storm is on the dividing line of KC between All snow and Sleet. Could significant sleet cause an Ice storm

Gary when are you going to do the update

Ok Gary, I have read all the posts, but I missed last night's 10 PM forecast!  I think Im trying to come down with this stupid superflu!  Thankfully I dont think it has hit the St. Joe area yet.  However, I am very in the dark as to what you are thinking for St. Joe tomorrow.  I know nothing is set in stone yet...heck with Mother Nature how can it be?  But would you at least let me know what are are thinking for the St Joe area on Thursday?  (More specifically between Platte City and St. Joe).  Thank you so much....anyone else that say the newscast that could let me know if Gary isn't able to get back to me?

Thanks all!

Well, I missed the forecast last night. I was just too tired. Anyhow, I still love winter even though Blue Springs hasn't gotten any big snows. It makes me sad since I love to watch it snow big, and everything seems so quiet, and nobody is outside. My prblem is, I'm okay with it being cold as long as there is snow. I can't stand it when it's so cold and the sun is out. I don't even want to leave my house when it's this cold. I knew it was going to be very cold today so I went to grab a couple things at the store yesterday. So, can we just give me a big snow storm? I'll be happy until next year I promise. If mother nature would give me one good snow, I'll be ready for Spring.
Krista

Looking at the nam and gfs they tend to bring a good amount of moisture for us to work with. I think the problem will be the temps in the upper atmosphere may bring us the sleet thing for a while. I am not good at reading those temps though since I am new to all this should be interesting can't wait for the update.

I know you said you'll have your forecast posted later, but best "guess" right now...for tomorrow's stuff, when do you think it will start and when do you think it will end?  Is this going to be a long, all day kind of thing, or a couple of hours where the drive in and home might not be too bad?

Also, I see your 30% chance for Saturday night/Sunday.  Is this looking like there will definitely be something Sat/Sun, or just a slight chance?

I didn't get to respond before, but I am DEFINITELY in the Spring category.  As a matter of fact, I say bring on summer!  The good thing about dry, 90+ temps this summer is that all I have to do is think about this winter and I will be HAPPY about the heat!!  : )

Hmmmm! I now see where the NAM is trying to phase a southern and northern system and GFS does not. The NWS is suggesting (2) areas of precipitation, one tomorrow and one on Friday. They prefer the GFS solution. Suddenly, as Gary suggests, this next system is getting tricky to forecast. Another interesting "ride" for us weather buffs...

Bob

Don't get your hopes up on this one!  We all know how these things work.  The models like to play with us, and at the very end they say GOTCH YA!  I hope something happens and we get some snow, but I don't think we will get much of anything.  My forecast for the metro is 1-2".  Make it go up!  We'll see!  

Gary how is next week looking for snow chances?  Talk to you all later.

I'm going to do ALL my homework tonight and work hard today so maybe it will make it snow tonight and I won't have to come tomorrow!  

Everybody do the snow dance!!!

I have been looking at all of the different maps. Geez, a different story with each one! I do think south of I-70 will have mostly sleet still, with a mix in towards the end. The maps I looked at on UNISYS show the south part getting all sleet also and the north getting a good amount of snow. Hmmm, does that sound familiar?

Jacob, I like your conspiracy theory about the models.  

Seems like the NAM is an outlier on snow totals relative to the other models.  This is Kansas City after all, the "donut hole" of snow accumulation for the Midwest.  Given the extremely dry air at the surface, and a good chance we will have a dry, NE to E wind tomorrow continuing to feed dry air in here at the surface, how likely is it that much of the precip will evaporate before reaching the surface, with only minimal amounts (say 1 to 2 inches of snow at most) accumulating on the ground in Kansas City?  My gut's telling me that's more likely than 3-6 inches.

Gary, Im sure the 11 newscast will say the same thing you just did in the update. There will be no change. For south KC, the forcast is always easy, lol...An all sleet event with snow mixed in at the end. I think we are lucky that we don't get all of the snow down here! I go to St Joe every weekend and I am sick of the snow up there when I go. I am just holding out hope some warm air comes to us soon!!!

I was just wondering if someone could maybe give me a timeline on this thursday storm? I work in snow removal and I am not sure when this thing is going to start. This information would be greatly appriciated so that I could send some guys home to get some rest.

Thanks

Can anyone tell me what Gary said for St. Joe last night?  Or anyone's own opinion based on the current models?  (I don't want to hear that we will get 10 inches of snow because we have all year...)

The new GFS is more in line with the NAM except it moves the 540 thickness line north of KC

12z GFS is starting to look more similar to recent NAM runs. 12z NAM has the core of heavy precip totals in east-central kansas while GFS shifts that a little east into central missouri. both models have the metro getting 0.50+ in. of precip. sleet/snow line on both divides the metro east and west.

Gary - I know it is probably way too early - but can you estimate a starting time for the precip?  

If the storm is strong enough, I be Olathe wil see 2 inches.  Thats are max where I live all year long, everysingle time, atleast its been alot of times though!

LOL- I really do know how to spell!  

From what I hear St. Joe is looking at mainly snow-however don't know the total they are calling for!  My husband is heading for St. Louis today and suppose to come back tomorrow---he's packing for extra days from the look of it in that area!!  The only good thing about single digits is that at my school we aired out the classrooms early this morning to try to kill the germs that is spreading the flu around---several kids out!!!!

"Brett34 said:
If the storm is strong enough, I be Olathe wil see 2 inches.  Thats are max where I live all year long, everysingle time, atleast its been alot of times though! "

Same here.

I went ahead and made a snow map for Gary to use this evening

http://img169.imageshack.us/my.php?image=snowmapox8.jpg

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Chris,

Awesome!  That is really funny.  Maybe I will show it. 

Have a great day!

Chris - I like it!  I'm in "tons of snow"!!!

1 to 4 no more!!!

Thats dumb the only time its cold enough for all snow its a weak storm

Just like every other storm this winter, I say no more than 1-3" of snow for Kansas City north of the river. My prediction for this one: 1" for my house near N. Oak & Barry Rd., and up to 2" in the northland. However, if it warms up a bit expect it to be all rain and no snow accumulation, although we could get a little bit of freezing rain and sleet.

Chris, so so funny!! I love it! Ya know you will be right don't ya?

LOL Chris...funny map...and quite true.

if we get a few inches of sleet that will satisfy me...I can go ice skating on my grass....last time we got like 3 inches of sleet...it totally covered the grass...and I sprayed some water on the top and made my own personal ice rink...it was really fun.

hey chfs327....you really need to pay me...its been at least a week since you lost the bet...please email me today.

thanks

Brent

OK, I'm thinking this is one of those dusting - 2" snowfalls.  That would mean 7"+ for everybody!!!  Hard forecast, but do you guys think there is a chance someone, preferably Platte City, could see 10 inches with this storm?  10 inches of snow that is.

Love teh snow map, of course I'm in the haha nothing again. I'm getting used to it and I'm not liking it. I want some darn snow to fall in Blue Springs that's more than a dusting.

Sorry but this is not the storm to bring anyone 10" or even close....

dose anyone know where i can look at the maps at that you all talk about can someone tell me how to get them thank you so much

rodeomann-----here the NWS link

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/fcst/model.php

When Blue Springs gets more than 3 inches ina storm,  we can officialy end winter and move onto Spring, until then we push on and if St. Joe gets 100 inches, well so be it.