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We are leaving on a flight from KCI at 7:45 a.m. tomorrow. Do you think it will be bad enough by then to cause problems with our flight? ****** I am going to say no because I think the precip initially is very light.  Brett

It looks like more of a snow event with some sleet mixed in for Lawrence and Topeka and areas off to the north. The NAM seems more bullish on precipitation compared with the GFS.
Also, did someone mention before Februrary that this month was going to be warmer than average? I don't see it happening as I scan the next 1.5 weeks worth of weather on the computer models today. *************** It doesn't look like it will ever warm up, but the trend of a warm up toward March 1st is becoming more consistent. Brett

Well it just looks ducky, doesn't it?  :)  Or polar-bear-y!!! **** Or Penguin Perfect!

Can you say if you think Southern O.P. will be affected, or will it be more northward (like ALL season:)?

I am really worried about driving from Adrian to Maryville and back tomorrow afternoon. Is this storm really going to produce or is it going to be like the last couple of storms?
Pat

Brett, I know totals are not able to be predicted right now, but originally everything was staying south.  Will St. Joe get some of the bad precip tomorrow or will it still say south (as it looks right now)? ***** Every storm has ended up trending farther north.  This one will probably do the same, still St. Joe may stay in the light precip area on Thursday and now wehave to watch Friday for snowfall potential.  Brett

I, like many of you, really need a big bad snowfall.  We may may not get it this time but one of these days.....

Thanks weather team for being my "hook up" for the best weather forecast!

DL

Here is a good sampling of the low temperatures that occured in the Upper Midwest, Midwest, and Northern Plains this morning: We were quite mild this morning by comparison.
Wisconsin:
Sparta: -26F
Tomahawk: -20F
Merrill: -18F
Antigo: -18F
Hayward: -18F
Lone Rock: -17F
Phillips: -17F
Marshfield: -15F
Eagle River: -15F
La Crosse: -12F
Stevens Point: -11F
Rhinelander: -11F
Madison: -10F
Wausau: -9F

Iowa:
Spencer: -21F
Estherville: -18F
Fort Dodge: -17F
Mason City: -15F
Storm Lake: -15F
Marshalltown: -12F
Waterloo: -11F
Cedar Rapids: -9F
Des Moines: -10F

Minnesota:
Park Rapids: -32F
Bemidji: -31F
Hallock: -31F
Warroad: -31F
Baudette: -28F
Longville: -27F
International Falls: -27F
Alexandria: -26F
Pine River: -26F
Morris: -26F
Aitkin: -24F
Grand Rapids: -22F
Brainerd Lakes region: -21F
Hibbing: -21F
Little Falls: -20F
St. Cloud: -19F
Windom: -18F
Cambridge: -17F
Princeton: -17F
Minneapolis International: -11F
Rochester: -10F

North Dakota:
Devils Lake: -35F
Grand Forks: -33F
Fargp: -31F
Jamestown: -31F
Minot: -26F
Bismarck: -23F

South Dakota:
Watertown: -28F
Aberdeen: -26F
Brookings: -24F
Sisseton: -23F
Huron: -20F
Sioux Falls: -19F
Mitchell: -16F

Nebraska:
Tekamah: -10F
Norfolk: -9F
Omaha Eppley: -8F
Columbus: -6F
Lincoln: -3F
Valentine: -2F
Ainsworth: -2F

All day tomorrow we're going to have precip?  No way you can get it to wait until 1 p.m.?  I'm supposed to go to Iowa City tomorrow to visit my dad after having cancer surgery.  Is it really going to be a bad day to drive?  How far north of KC will it be bad? ****** North of I-70, it will likely remain light snow and the farther north you go, once you are north of Highway 36, the snow will eventually shut off.  Leave early in the morning if you can.  Brett

STJOE misses out this time unless we get the dry wind to calm down. . . . .25-.50 for TH seems high to me.  Our noon observation was 5 degrees dewpoint -5 degrees.

Daniel, I measured the moisture content of last year's one-inch sleet storm.  I recorded .6" of precipiation.  That would work out to about a 1:1.7 ratio of precip to sleet.  But that was just one storm.

The 12Z NAM looks a little strange with two distinct waves of precip. The first wave looks like a heavier band of snow/sleet while the second piece of energy should produce mostly snow. The 12Z GFS still has lighter amounts of precipitation compared with the NAM.
The 12Z NAM spits out over 0.50 inches of QPF which would be a rather decent snow/sleet storm.

stjoeattorney,
The official low for St. Joe was 1F this morning.
The cold air advection from the NNE will not allow for much moderation for the rest of today. Temps will be slower to cool tonight.

So...when you say "not the day to travel" do you mean driving locally around KC, or traveling to points away from the city?  

 Does tonight after midnight still look ok, when do you expect the precip to start??

The Midwest, Northern Plains, and North-Central Plains were sure cold this morning. The northwoods have actually had a great winter with a solid snowpack, great ice fishing, and good snowmobiling conditions. The wind chills last night using the old formula would have been -60F to -70F, but the new formula registers around a -50F for areas of MN and ND last night.

This is a tough one to call. Sounds like the next few days could be busy for me. I work for the city and it is my job to help with snow and ice removal. Not sure if the guys should go home early today or not. Best guess is that the precip will start around 6:00am??? If thats true then they can work a normal shift today. When would you all have a better idea on when and what the precip will be? Sounds like a pretty bad day none the less. Hope that every one is safe!!!!!

This may be the first storm or series of storms we "miss" out on up here in Saint Joseph!

C'mon we need a snow, sleet or whatever day.  I am home with a sick kid who is getting better but now I am sick.  Need a day out of school to recuperate now that I am sick.  This widespread flu is awful.  Spring can come anytime now!

Are we to expect gusty winds with this snow/sleet event for tomorrow and Friday?

why no winter weather watches or advisories for the South east portion of the EAX area?

Any thoughts on "snow day" potential for the next two days?  I have a classroom of 25 sick kiddos that need a break!

Will it be clear for the lunar eclipse tonight?????????????

As juniorfan pointed out this is the flu season. We have been getting tons of flu and pneumonia admits through the ER at work. I have to work Thursday so I am not looking forward to the weather. I work 12 hour shifts so I will get it going and coming home looks like as I will be going from Lenexa to western KCK. I know people look forward to snow days off from school and work, but some of us have no choice but to go to work.

I have a daughter leaving for a debate tournament in Neosho tomorrow afternoon, and my son leaves for the scout reservation Friday evening.  Any thoughts on this?  I would hate for her to miss out on this tournament her senior year, but I want her safe.  Scouts don't leave until Friday evening, so maybe some clearing by then?  Sonic.......what district?  The flu bug is hitting Raytown hard.  I have been home all week.

sheldan - Blue Springs - it is nasty here also - my kiddos are dropping quickly!

Don't think we will be getting a snow day after reading NOAA's forecast.  Guess we will have another day of coughing on one another.  I go thru a giant can of Lysol a week now and its not helping.  Come on mother nature we need snow days so we can heal!  My dr and pharmacist looked wore out yesterday!

Just in case anyone didnt see the snow fall map for tomorrow:

http://img169.imageshack.us/my.php?image=snowmapox8.jpg

Fevers and vomiting all over the place.  And parents send them anyway, that is what is so horrible.  Can't wait for Spring Break so everyone can get well.  If this weather hits, it will be good for everyone in the district, 70% have been sick at some point.

waht are the chances of platte county and other counties up north being under any watches??
i wonder if the kids will get another snow day???

New NAM is coming out... up to 42 hours

Looks similar to the latest NAM runs

Cannot wait to see what the latest model runs are showing. It looks like it is going to get interesting here tomorrow regardless of what type(s) of precipitation we ultimately get.

For you weather buffs, here is a link to an image of a rare twin vortex event over the Great Lakes. This motion image was captured today:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=13117&source=0

Enjoy!

Bob

Bob that is pretty cool!!!!


Any one know when we will get another update????????

I know this storm is tricky but I think it would be great to hear the worst case scenerio and the best case. Timeline and precip.

This storm is a doozy.  It is trending north.  The reason I think is due to the secondary surface low that forms just NW of the main one.  They phase together Friday morning, but allows quite abit of extra moisture in.

The GFS is moving a bit closer to the NAM.  850mb temps will have to be watched.  This is indeed tricky.  I think however, based on the past performances, the secondary low etc, that we will see more sleet in the metro than anything on Thurs, turning to snow on Fri.

The GFS wants to show nearly 30hrs of precip potential.  We will have to see, but in watching the 500mb vort, it is amusing to watch this thing.

Early in the week, the GFS wanted to put this vort where it didn't want to be per the long term longwave.  Over the last few days, it has continued to push it toward the longwave.  That is why we have continued to see a more northern push.

Look at the 500mb vort now.  I will be darned if it doesn't come up through Joplin-ish AGAIN!

Watch for this potential deformation band forming on the back side....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_700_042l.gif

Looking at the SREF..the train of moisture comes right through this region.  This should be a hoot!

How about 1-4 inches again?  LOL

Look at this - off of Cali.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_084.shtml

How would you like to see this ULL coming at you!

LOL..it fizzles away nearly, but quite impressive at first.

Other random thought.

Projected on January 13th using surface trending...

"Expect the first storm between the 7th and 9th. Temperatures right before the front will be very warm. I would not be surprised to see mean temperatures 15-25 degrees above mean. This means we could get in the 80s. As the front passes, expect potential thunderstorms and a potential of severe weather. The temperature gradient with this storm looks potent. Looks to be enough precipitation available per the trend to give half an inch. Following this front, expect the second week to drop 5-10 degrees below mean."

Look at this first -

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_850_324l.gif

Then this -

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_372l.gif

Then this -

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_850_384l.gif

Incredible!  Lets see if it actually happens.

Scott,
I so enjoy reading your take on what's happening.  Since you have a bit more time than Gary & the guys, you can break things down a bit more into understandable lingo.  And thank you for doing that.

But, for those of us that are more meterologically challenged, could you please define doozy just a bit more?  Is it looking to grow a lot more?  Or just a strange little storm that wants to hang out in Joplin.
Thanks :o)  

i don't see why the NWS is still sticking with such a southern track for the precip. most of the latest model runs in the last 18 hours flatly contradict what their Topeka and KC offices are forecasting. let's see what the latest GFS says in a couple hours...

NEED NEW POST PLEASE. :)

I can not get inot the NCEP Central Opertions website. Not connecting for some reason. Wondering if anyone could help me???

meterologically challenged, that's funny

I'm curious what is going to be the determining factor between snow and sleet. Temperature, obviously, but is the very cold air over us now going to recede as the storm approaches making for a mix rather than all snow?

NEW POST!!!!!!