Good afternoon bloggers,
We have poured over all of the maps, data, conditions, etc., and we are now preparing for our weathercasts tonight. The trend on the models is for us to have a warm layer transported in above the surface that will try to prevent the precipitation from being in the form of snow. All it takes is one warm layer and it will be sleet, freezing rain, freezing drizzle and not snow. So, don't get too excited about this rather strange storm. In its own weak way this is very similar to other storm systems that have happened in this season's weather pattern.
The latest NAM model (18z run) has this warm layer coming in and our thickness is forecast to go above 540 during the day on Thursday. A band of precipitation is likely late tonight into Thursday morning. Even just a short period of sleet or snow will cause our cold surfaces to immediately get covered. We are still uncertain as to how much liquid equivalent precipitation will occur. This is something we will try to figure out and then share with you tonight as the new data again rolls in.
The main upper low is going to meander by in a very weak state on Friday. And, Jeff Penner and I believe it is a very weak version of our other storm systems so we think there could be a nice band of snow that would form north and west of Kansas City late Thursday night and then slowly move southeast across the area. It is something we have seen about 4 other times in this year's pattern.
Once again we expect some precipitation to arrive early in the morning. We will be putting some excellent weathercasts together, so watch our 5 and 6 PM newscasts on NBC Action News. I will update the blog tonight.
Gary