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big flakes here near Walmart in KCK.  comin down steadily too

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Some nice bands heading your way!

Jeremy

Was gonna post that it was back to all sleet...and now the big snowflakes returned. atmosphere can't make up its mind.

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A tricky precip. area to pin down to say the least!

Jeremy

steady snow near I-70/35/29 & Admiral

still sleet (light) in Grandview

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That will likely mix with some snow early this afternoon.

Jeremy

Big snow flakes in downtown KCk. Absolutely beautiful!

Heavy sleet with large snowflakes mixed in at I-35 and 87th Street.

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Let us know your final estimate on snow/sleet total.

Jeremy

Brett had it right sleet, snow, sleet,snow,sleet,snow,sleet,snow, AHHHHHHH I am getting a headache.......LOL

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I just call it yuck!

Jeremy

Same here for western Shawnee--been sleet, been REALLY big snow, then back to just sleet....and of course, here comes the snow again!

Still under an inch of precip on the ground.

sleet had stopped for a period in Lee's Summit, but has begun to sleet, lightly, again.

Sleet has picked up again in Raytown.  Snow headed this way?  

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Snow will mix in at times.  Not much in the way of accumulation, but even a few tenths is enough to cause more problems on the roads.

Jeremy

moderate precip here in Parkville. Still sleet though. Will this next band bring snow?

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Should mix with snow...

Jeremy

1 mile north of Lee's Summit Rd and I-70.  Heavy sleet right now.

My daughter and her debate team are suppose to leave for a tournament in Neosho this afternoon, how does it look down there?

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Precip. should exit this afternoon, but the roads will likely remain slick.

Jeremy

Hi Jeremy...what, if anything, will St. Joe see by the end of the week? Any snow accum. tonight through tomorrow? I know you can't give me a set in stone forecast with these systems, but just a guess would be good enough for me!  :)

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Tomorrow looks light...at the moment under 1" where you are at.

Jeremy

now big fat flakes in Parkville

Thanks Jeremy, you guys are awesome!  I tell all my friends, and I think you have made believers out of them.

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Great to hear!  Keep spreading the word.

Jeremy

Sleet back after some pretty (and big) snowflakes.  I know you were thinking it would taper off this afternoon, but when are you thinking it will change over and STAY as snow?  Would love for this to continue in Southern JOCO!!:)

Big beautiful flakes just now in Lawrence!

Jeremy, I am confused by the post above...

"The main disturbance will move by early this afternoon and the heavier precipitation will change back to snow grains & freezing drizzle during the afternoon until the main storm approaches on Friday morning."

How is the main disturbance different than the main storm?  Maybe the "main distrubance" is the trough ahead of the ULL, and the "main storm" is the ULL following behind?

Or perhaps this first part is the leading edge of the overall storm, and the following part is the back end of the same storm?

Just looking to clairfy since "This storm is doing exactly what we thought it would..."

I want to make sure i know what that was.

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I will go in and change the wording a bit.  I consider a disturbance as just one smaller part of the main storm!

Gary

Back and forth between sleet and big snowflakes at 59th and N Oak in Gladstone.  Just a dusting since it started again, enough to cover some of the treated surfaces.

still all sleet here in Clinton.  1.5 inches of sleet along with approx .10 of ice from an incredible thunderstorm about 2 hours ago.  Jim in Clinton

Huge flakes in Parkville for about 10 minutes. If it keeps up like this we could be talking about some big accumulations.

Good work on the storm -

Earlier this week, you (Gary) mentioned a potential warmup next week - can you please let me know when that will be, so I have something to look forward to?

Thanks - and keep up the great work.

Ryan

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Ryan,

You may want to ask this again later when Gary's in.  But Monday looks like a 'warm' day at this moment:)

Jeremy

The snow has made it to Raytown, beautiful fat flakes!

Some moderate snow in Westport.  

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OK...thanks!

Jeremy

No snow in Independence yet.
Still moderate sleet.

Is it just me or does it keep filling in out to our west. It looked as though it was diminishing out to the west and now it looks as though it has filled back in.

Jeremy thanks for your dedication to the blog and us I know it takes time away from your family Thanks

Back to sleet in Raytown, wow what weird storm

Sleet now and KU just cancelled classes after 1 p.m.

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We got it...thanks!

Jeremy

Okay, so I'm sure it's just me, but I dont quite understand....above Gary says "This last band of precipitation with part 1 of the storm should be moving off to the east by 1 or 2 PM" which I interpret as the preciptitation is going to end around 1 or 2 and be dry until the bigger part with the snow moves in tonight.  

But then earlier he says "This upper level wave ejecting out of the main storm will move by early this afternoon and the heavier precipitation will change back to snow grains & freezing drizzle during the afternoon until the main storm approaches on Friday morning." which makes me believe that there will really be no stop in precipitation.

So...will there be any signficant break in any sleet/snow/rain precip, or will it most like be doing something constantly until tomorrow?

Does any of that make sense? : )

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We'll have a break later this afternoon and into the evening.  Some light snow is possible overnight.

Jeremy

sleet has stopped here in Harrisonvlle....

is there supposed to be freezing drizzle the rest of the afternoon?...or is it going to stop completely?

I heard that areas south of kansas city may see the heavier precip again, tomorrow morning also?

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Brent,

I don't think it will completely stop for at least another hour or two for you.  But it should be much lighter.  Tomorrow looks light...probably under 1" in most areas.  The trend has been for less, not more.

Jeremy

For once raypec cancelled school!!! the last time we had school off was in december!... There hasnt been much snow down here but lots of sleet... you think that schools will be canceled tommorow???

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Depends on the school policy...but at least tomorrow looks like mainly snow.  And at the moment pretty light.

Jeremy

sportsfreaked, where do you see it filling in out west? It looks like it is almost gone.

Gary/Jeremy,

Looking at the vapor, it looks like this northern plunge is beginning to interact with the ULL.  It seems to be flattening out the top of the flow.

What do you think?

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us_loop-12.html

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Pretty cool sat. shot.  Both branches of the jet are well defined.  The top of the ULL seems to be surpressed south or flattened at the top.

Jeremy

everybody i know in the snow removal business uses this sight to make plans to take care of customers. we need to know more on the rest of this storm. what time will the snow start when will it end how much etc? please help.

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Mid afternoon most of it should exit the metro.  Then overnight a chance of light snow is possible.  Gary will likely update everyone by mid afternoon or around 4pm.  I'll let him give the forecast details.  But Friday does not look nearly like today.

Jeremy

talking about tonight into tomorrow.

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Probably about the same time as today.  Overnight beginning in areas and then light stuff/flurries in the morning.  Right now Friday looks pretty light in the way of accum.

Jeremy

KELLYANN>>>>>>>>It appears to be filling in aroung Topeka. At around noon it appeared the backend was past Topeka and on the latest radar it appears to fill in around Topeka.

Scott>>> It looks like that northern plunge is flattening it out looks like a big hammer pounding down on it. Now what does that mean for us?

Sleet in lee's summit, no school!!!

HUGE FLAKES FOR ABOUT 5 MIN. AT 152 AND AMITY

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Snowing snowballs in spots!  Was on the Plaza earlier.

Jeremy

still snowing big fat flakes in Parkville. Been coming down for about a half hour now.

Scott, what does that mean to you ? The ULL activity I mean.

sportsfreaked what map are you looking at because I don't see that.

Nice Weather In Plattewoods Sleet/snowMore Sleet Than More Snow Is It Ever Gonnnnnnnnna End?

Kellyann i am just looking at the radar in motion on the weather page for 41

HUGE Flakes at 59th and N Oak right now.  Up to 1/4 inch of snow on everything including treated surfaces.  Vis. about 1/2 mile right now.

sportsfreaked,

In vapors, the darker areas are dryer areas.  In storms, dry air is bad.  So, as we see the northern jet dipping down with the dry air, it is doing a couple of things.

1.  It is disrupting the ULL dynamics.  Watch in the loop how the ULL mechanics are starting to loose some organization in the last few frames.  

2.  It may weaken the ULL and push it a bit more south.  Depends how each of these equal out.

3.  It begins to create a more narrow channel for moisture ejecting out ahead of the ULL - between the upper and lower jet paths.  It almost looks like in watching the last frame, another wave wants to shoot off this ULL into SW Kansas.

4.  Relating to the first point...dry air is bad.  If the northern stream of dry air dips over our area, this likely would choke out any precip.

Look at the vapor, then this...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_012.shtml

You can see how the impact of the northern plunge disrupts the ULL enough to break apart.

update at 59th and N Oak.  Huge flakes still Vis to 1/4 mile or less piling up quickly.

sportsfreaked, I can never make anything out on that map,,,it moves back/forth, up/down, and changes views to much. But if you look at the NOAA or any other radars, it does not show a building of precip to me, I could be wrong.

Is there such a description as "torrential snow"?  That is what is happening right now in Gladstone!

This thing looks like it ended really before it started.  It would be more interesting to be in STL opposed to us.

Looking at the regional composite, after this last little bit...I don't see much behind it at all forming.

Those north of the river, enjoy it while you can...this is the last little bit coming through for quite awhile.

SCOTT>>>>> Thanks for the info I kind of figured that is what it would mean but I am not confident enough to put it out there. It was just a slightly educated guess on my part and thanks again for the knowledge I appreciate it!!

Yes it looks like it has all shifted to the north. Just talked to the wife who works at Cerner by North KC Hospital and she said it was coming down good a bit earlier now it is finer. She says the visibility is low as it almost looks like fog.

Well here in St. Joe earlier today we had a decent light snow coming down giving us a dusting of snow, not much, but I have seen vehicles near my house have trouble with their back tires spinning, so kind of interesting, now we are having a light misty type of snow, man southern Missouri is getting yet ANOTHER ice storm, it is almost like there is some sort of repeating pattern going on;), he, he,.

absolutely beautiful snow at 152/N Oak!!

Just went and measured here at 59th and N Oak and we picked up a quick inch of snow in the last band.  changed back to sleet now, with snow mixed in.

Dried in Independence.
Anymore coming this way?

haven't seen a snowflake here all day....

Still fat flakes near Zona Rosa, but they have slowed down to more of a steady trickle, as opposed to about 10 minutes ago when it was "pouring" fat snow flakes.  It's been interesting to see the constant changeover today...(I love being a teacher, so that I am always available on my "snow days" to follow my side-passion of the WEATHER!!! :)  

heavy snow in kearney

Now it's more of a heavy snow.... :)  Can't keep up!!

It's pretty, but I'm sick of being cold and stuck inside all the time.  Is this ever going to end?  Any long term home for sun and warmth?

OK, NOW ITS DUMPING, HUGE FLAKES AND AT A VERY HEAVY RATE AT 152 AND AMITY

Now we have significant snow/graupel coming down pretty good, side roads are slick, at least the ones around my house.

When is it supposed to start up again?  Just looking for that gleam of hope for a KS school cancellation! :)

Well we have about 3/4 of an inch of sleet/snow here in Marshall and still sleeting. I wish it was a foot of snow instead of the ice.

the north side of the metro is getting to see some action after all huh?...lol

I see all of these kids who are excited for and hoping for snow days, but dont they have to make them up in the summer?

Heavy snow at 169 & Cookingham.  It's gorgeous!

Emmysmom>  Here in Olathe we have 5 days built in before we have to start making them up.  We've had 3 (I'm pretty sure) so far.  

Folks...in this lull.

Remember back to Jan 17th?  We had a huge front pass with 40-50 degree changes?

The temp/pressure gradients were very steep...we had some gusty winds that day for sure!

I have been warning of the next time of this through since before even the 17th, that early March could have some severe weather due to this recurring frontal boundary.

I mentioned it yesterday and will just one more time today.  Look at this!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_384.shtml

This is right on track with where I thought it would be over a month and a half in advance on January 13th!  

http://kcwx.blogspot.com/2008/02/welcome-back-folks.html

For those that doubt the cycling, how can this be?  I understand the need to prove and work out some finer points..but really, how can this be discounted as luck?

Whether you buy into the LRC, my surface analysis or some other method, I think its fair to say there is a cycle happening at some level.

All that said, I think March 7-9 will be a wake up call.  I do expect a severe outbreak.  I likely will be chasing or at the SPC that day.  Look at the temp projections.

70s ahead of it, and arctic air behind it.  Yikes!  Convection, ample moisture with huge temp grads...wow.  I think with compressional heating, we could make a run at some records.  We will see...

Look at the S/SW moist wind pouring into the warm front.  Looks to have some veering with height...hmmm?

Anyway..back to regularly scheduled programming...

;-)

Some schools have them built into the calender but they do have to make them up if they don't go to school. If they go and dismiss at 1230pm they can count that day as being a whole day and don't have to make them up.

I just got out of the hospital like an hour ago in Moberly..I was there for 3 days because I had apendicitis and they took my apendix out the old fashoned way...The hospital didnt even have a computer i could use...It was boring and I was missing being on the blog

I woke up this morning and there was about a quarter of an inch of sleet outside the hospital and it was just flurrying..Then it started light snowing later, and by the time I was discharged from the hospital the roads were extremely slick...Good thing I wasnt driving

I am back in Marceline now and it is snowing at a good clip light to moderatly..I hope it will pick up sometime soon with bigger flakes...I want to get a couple of inches of snow at least.

PS...Dont try to eat hospital scrambled eggs  

lezakef5 I'm glad to hear you are out of the hospital and doing better!!!!!!!!

State says you can count a full day being dismissed at 11:00AM or after.  Most schools build in snow days, but for those that don't a new bill was passed last year.  It says that all schools have to make up the first 6 days missed and after that it is a two for one deal.  For each day missed after 6, a half of a day is required to make up.  However, like I said, most (larger) districts build in the days and most rural districts do not, although they usually schedule the last day somewhere in the middle of May so there is time to make up days!

I just got done fighting the flu. It was miserable, but my mom was my own personal butler for a few days:). I would actually prefer it if climate fluctuation turned the world back into a "snowball earth", like in the Ice Age. Yes, we would have to adjust but cavemen learned to live with it and we could to, especially with our technology. Just imagine spring thunderstorms with heavy snow, lightning, and wind. I have been liking these cold streaks because they put everything else into a deep freeze that takes more than a few days to thaw. I wish winter would last forever!

My child is 2 and it's been awhile since I was in school (and I went to school in Nebraska) so I didn't know how things had changed.  Thanks!  : )

No problem...I am a third year teacher and still enjoy the snow days just as much as the kids (if not more because I get a "quiet" day).  We just had this conversation at our school figuring out what we had to make up and what we did not.  So, for once, I really know what I am talking about.  :o) LOL

LEZAKEF5>>>>>>Glad to have you back. Glad all went well with the appendix. After having mine out in 1980 then 3 major back sugeries in 1995 and 1996 I could have warned you about the food. Just wait you will be back with stomach problems if you ate any of the "food" they gave you........LOL>>>>>>> I am not sure where they get that stuff from I think it may be rations left over from WW1 and WW2.......LOL>>>>>>

Well, Emmysmom, things are different HERE in MO, anyway from where we grew up.  I grew up in Iowa...and it would take 6 or more inches before we got out of school!!  
I teach in Liberty and we have, in the past, had 4 days built in...today is our 5th snow day, so we will be adding a day to the end of the year ANY time we have snow days from now on.  Starting NEXT year, due to the changes made by the state, we will be "ending" much earlier in May, however the calendar shows 6 days of make-ups as possibilities, so parents know ahead of time that it is entirely possible we will not end until the last of the 6 days allotted (which goes into JUNE!!)  Anyway, 6 days extra, is a bit overzealous in my opinion for most years, but after THIS winter, it definitely makes sense why they are thinking ahead!!! :)

Someone please tell me that hope is on the horizon? Right now, in April when the weather is warmer and I want to be outside enjoying it.  I will now be stuck in the classroom thanks to snow days.  I want spring!!!!

WinterTracker... you sound like a candidate for an expidition to the North Pole or Antartica! hey, if you line one up, can you take chfs327 too? ;-) jes' kiddin....

*laugh*  MikeTrainor1...you kill me!  If I hadn't been paying attention to the blog last night your humor would have been lost on me!!!! :)

Well, with the radar showing no more snow coming in went out and measured in 6 spots.  We have 1 1/2 inches of snow, sleet, and ice at 59th and N Oak in Gladstone.  The ground is all white again and the roads are snow packed.  I hope this ends soon. I'm sick of plowing and brushing off cars.

sedmo...what school in Missouri gets out in April?  That's impossible unless you start back in July.  Missouri is required to have a certain number of student contact days and there is no way to fit the number in to end school in April.  MidMay is the standard release time...

Do colleges/universities get out at the end of April, perhaps??

New blog...

Colleges will get out at that time, but they do not have to make up missed days.  They just eat them....

jcarney... yeah that was kinda fun. i went back and read it all this morning and just laughed at the course the thread took. but really, chfs brought it all on himself. i especially liked the joke someone wrote about calling the Pope and cancelling his visit to the Vatican. LOL.....