NBC Action Communities

gary... how were the streets down around the plaza area? heading that way in a few minutes... thanks!

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There are many slick spots!

Gary

When do u think the next storm be popping out

Is it just me or does it seem there has been a rather sharp increase in the number of ice storms in our area compared to snow.  Growing up (80's/early 90's) I can only remember one semi-significant ice storm, but that might just be my young memory.

The roads in Johnson County are in horrible shape - and the drivers don't seem to be aware of it.  There are MANY slick spots, and not just on the side roads, either.   I nearly slid into someone at a light, and I was going less than 10 m.p.h.

Also, as this just happened to me, if your car has ice or frost on it, please take care to remove enough so you can see out of the vehicle.  That way, you won't make a turn into oncoming traffic, forcing this loyal blogger to have to swerve, jump the median and end up in the oncoming traffic lane - and all without the other driver bothering to stop.

Please bring on warm enough weather to melt this stuff -

Ryan

I'm beginning to wonder if there might actually be some credibility to the earth axis shift theory.

ScottR said:
Is it just me or does it seem there has been a rather sharp increase in the number of ice storms in our area compared to snow.

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Without a doubt yes. My thought these days is "what is going here"?

btw... realized about 10 minutes after i posted earlier that, duh!!, gary isn't on the plaza at that hour!!

ward parkway and the SW trafficway have got to be the worst kept streets in town for being major north-south thoroughfares from JOCO and south KC to downtown. i'm amazed.

ryan.... i feel your pain. so many people just don't take the time to properly clean off their cars. like the fools who don't clean off the tops so that when it starts warming up, large chunks or sheets come flying off onto the hood or windshield of the car behind them. this happened to me a few weeks back at freeway speeds. sheesh....

I'm still not sure why the major johnson county schools did not close yesterday or today.  Shawnee, Olathe, Blue Valley, etc. all wait for one or the other to close before closing... maybe they should evaluate their spatial relationship to the weather and decide for themselves on when to close.  If anything, this winter has proven a small distance can mean a wide range of precip types and amounts.  I think the roads, especially side roads that the buses travel on, were far too treacherous to navigate with school children.  Maybe districts need to stop thinking with their pocketbooks and or schedules and look out for the safety of their kids.  Just my opinion.

Totally agree with you ScottR.   KCK school bus accident yesterday perfect example.  They should be smart enough to protect OUR children over THEIR wallets

Stacy

Sundays storm to me was the best one this season...In Marceline it rained from probably 6:30 PM Saturday to 7:30 AM Sunday when it finally changed over to snow. My friends backyard had a river flowing through it and the creek by my house was the second highest I have seen it since I lived here. The highest I have seen it was a couple years ago when a severe thunderstorm came through that dropped a tornado a few miles west of Brookfield near the town of Meadeville. The creek had to of risen at least 20 feet because it was over the road which was a good 18 feet....When the rain finally changed to snow Sunday morning the flakes were big at first, but quickly shrank in size and varied in intensity..After church though the snow picked back up for an hour or soo and the flakes were pretty big, but the intensity was insane. It came down hard and fast for a while, then the flakes got small and the snow ended.

I dont remember what you guys had Marceline in terms of snow accumulations, but other stations had us in a 3-6 inch band. Im thinking you guys had us in a 2-3 inch band. Well we got 2.5 inches of extremely wet snow. I couldnt imagine what the snow to water ratio to that snow had to of been.

Also I remember the temperature was a constant 33 degrees from 6:30 PM Saturday all the way until the snow ended.

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Thanks for the detailed analysis.  Sunday's storm was a lot of fun from a forecasting standpoint.  A challenge, but fun, especially when it verified pretty well.

Jeremy

ScottR said:
im still not sure why the major johnson county schools did not close yesterday or today.  Shawnee, Olathe, Blue Valley, etc. all wait for one or the other to close before closing... maybe they should evaluate their spatial relationship to the weather and decide for themselves on when to close.  If anything, this winter has proven a small distance can mean a wide range of precip types and amounts.  I think the roads, especially side roads that the buses travel on, were far too treacherous to navigate with school children.  Maybe districts need to stop thinking with their pocketbooks and or schedules and look out for the safety of their kids.  Just my opinion.

I have contact with Dr.All the Superintendent for the OSD. I told her to not cancel schools the past 2 days because this wasnt a major storm. It didnt snow 3 inches or more and streets in Olathe arnt bad. if this storm had 3-6 inches of snow or the streets were very slick then I would have told Dr.All to cancel schools. You just got to put a Perspective into things.

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This could have gone either way with no school or school.  Let's just warm up and dry out and then everyone can enjoy some nice weather.  We can hope:)

Jeremy

chfs, I would love to see KHP, Olathe PD, Overland Park PD, JoCo Sherriffs responses to the roads not being slick.  They seemed to be awfully busy for this storm to have been such a miniscual event.

I understand not calling off school today(maybe), but yesterday should have been done.  ANYBODY that tried to get around yesterday had a difficult time to say the least.  The storm itself wasn't that bad, but the roads were as if a more significant storm was upon us.  Just didn't make much sense.  Oh well.  Bring on the warm weather!    

ScottR - you can't be serious?

Chfs327 - Olathe, BV, and Shawnee have all closed for less than 3 inches of snow numerous times over the last few years (as little as 1 inch has done the trick this winter) and the streets were "very slick" yesterday so that doesn't add up either.   I did not see any reason not to have school yesterday, it wasn't impossible to get around, but was surprised the schools weren't closed since frozen precip of any amount was on the ground in JoCo.

What would I not be serious about Taxman?  Buses don't tend to get around well on ice and sleet.  Maybe your kids walk to school?

I think school would have been in session today, no real doubt as the roads were not that bad.  Yesterday, they were bad enough to call off school.

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Maybe we should put a debate on the news blog:)  Anyways, even though the school issue ties to the weather, let's try not to debate it here. 

By the way...sunshine is slowly working its way south!  It might arrive this afternoon in KC!  Hopefully that helps everyone's spirit...

Jeremy

the roads refroze and the sleet has turned to a slick sheet of ice, driveways are very bad, and side roads are also very treacherous. schools being cancelled south of KC was a good idea. I think everyone from Cass county south has canceled.

It was not a big storm, but an inch of sleet can cause a lot of problems if the temperatures are in the teens and low 20's

I am still waiting for that 6 inch snowstorm that seemingly everyone else has had......I did not see ONE snowflake with this last storm, despite the fact that the team had a 70% chance of snow today...what was with that?

And no one ever answered me about Mondays storm that just dissapeared?....do LRC storms do that normally?...because I heard various team members talking about how monday night's storm matched up with the LRC and all...and I was just wondering why that just dissapeared quietly...

I am not looking forward to rain Saturday night...as you all know I despise rain in the  winter...and Harrisonville has definitely seen its share of heavy winter rains this year.

Its 28 here....almost 3/4 inch of sleet on the ground.....

we'll see how fast it melts....since my yard is under a geothermal hot spot.....

what did happen to that Monday storm system, I noticed it has been pulled from the forecast.

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If you are referring to this coming Monday...check out Jan. 7-8 maps. 

Jeremy

You schools should not have been in session yesterday.  I have friends on the PD out there and they agreed that a bad decision was made.  Guess you don't know everything chfs....

Sorry Jeremy...just read not to debate on here.  I apologize!

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No problem.

The Monday storm was never really there.  Silly models.

I see that now....thanks jeremy and scott

Is the storm for Monday and Tuesday not showing up now?

OK so I am nice and cranky today... I think I am finally getting the flu...

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Not the flu!  The weekend is almost here!

Jeremy

Jeremy - LOL..I won't go into it..but Jan 7-8 maps even at the newest rendition of the LRC of 50 days would put it at Tues/Wed.

Unless the LRC is under 50 days this week.

Ok..I will stop...you all need a break.

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I think it is 50 days apart.  Maybe you need the break?

Jeremy

why is it 32 here?

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"since my yard is under a geothermal hot spot....."

You answered that earlier.

Well I already had pneumonia, so might as well throw this onto my weakened immune system  Yay

How active do you think the active part of the pattern will get in 2 to 3 week....Mabey some severe thinderstorms with snow instead of rain...After this season so far, I think anything is possible.

How active do you think the active part of the pattern will get in 2 to 3 weeks??....Mabey some severe thunderstorms with snow instead of rain...After this season so far, I think anything is possible!

Sorry for posting twice...I hate it when I mess up typing..

I have strep Throat BTW

My dad works for the City of Olathe in Traffic management and he said roads were somewhat slick but not slick enough to cancel schools. Basically what my dad does is make sure traffic lights are working and reports wrecks, and watches everyone through the Cameras on the Traffic light

"and watches everyone through the Cameras on the Traffic light"

So chfs327, your dad is Big Brother? (just kidding...well sorta)

I will give up on the "cycle" duration of the LRC.  I have beat it to death and it is what it is.

Today it is 50 days.

Jan 2nd it was 54 days

Feb 7th it was..well...

"I am in close agreement with your 52 to 56 days, but it is still not perfect.  We haven't wavered from thinking it is around 54 days overall.  There could be some parts of the pattern that seem 45 to 50 days apart and others that seem more like 56 to 58 days.  So, taking a storm and projecting exactly 54 days or close to it has been working, but there are some other factors that you must try to look at."

The LRC as defined in Gary's comments in the last two months is somewhere between 45-56 days.

Payroll is normally set up on recurring cycles.  Rarely do they deviate, but can if there is an extra day in the month.  I am glad my money is not on the same "cycle" as the LRC, lest I have to wait in a window of 11 days to see if I get paid.

I will say this again to offset some criticisim.  I believe in the concept of recurring patterns and I do believe there is a cycle that is more firm than stated above.  99% of the world cannot even agree to this.  So for that I am a strong supporter.  

It is this flux that drives me crazy.  Can anyone see how this is confusing?

Its a moot point..so I will let it die.

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Scott,

It is only confusing because you take one statement that I make out of context.  I did think it was around 54 days, but as we were preparing for the last long range prediction we realized it was closer to 50 days.  It didn't suddenly change.  It has been about 50 days the entire time!  It was just our first assumption of 54 days that may have been a bit off.

Gary

Any way i got 2 snowdays because i am sick with strep so im on here and hockin up lugies right now

but anyway we shoudlnt have had school thou.

should have had school.* sorry btw I wasnt payign attention

Scott, I don't think it is a moot point. If Gary believes the LRC is a "major scientific discovery", then he should be able to address such critiques. If there really is one recurring cycle, we shouldn't have some elements on a 45-50 day cycle with others on a 56-58 day.

To those wondering why schools didnt close; I know that Shawnee Mission is in the middle of testing this week.

RDub, I'll second your second of Scott's point.

There was no school here in Raytown today.  The street I live on looks clear tho but the side street across the way looks snow/sleet covered.  I feel bad for the kids because they will have to make up some days at the end of the year.  I am really glad that I am not working right now.  I hate icy sidewalks and streets.

Kristi

Yeah, here in O.P. it's not too bad on the main streets. Getting out of the neighborhood was fun as always. What's worse is walking around in some places. Took my dog to the vet in Olathe this morning and it was like walking on hockey rink ice. Very slick. I was just glad she was subdued and didn't jerk me off my feet.

I don't even like to walk down the two steps of our deck...  They are treacherous.  

Kristi

I think this is where my rub is.  The casual viewer will generally accept what a met will say regarding weather science as true.  While Gary has numerous times indicated that the LRC is not proven, it pails in comparison to the times that the LRC has been credited for a forecast.

So, a casual observer would typically take the word of the met and believe that the LRC is a proven theory.  We are often told "keep watching it is there" or"how can you not see it?"

I believe in the cycle or I wouldn't keep wanting to work on it.  I think my angst comes not as much from the concept itself, but how it is communicated or promoted as the reason for things.  I have also see so many things from the bloggers that credit the LRC for things I am unclear even how it relates.

This is just my rant.  This is why I think it is a moot point.  I have brought all this up in the past and we are still at the same place.  I know things take time in science..and I am cool with that.  But communcation or application challenges could be quickly addressed.

I know there is strong evidence for the LRC.  I have seen it.  I think it needs work, but like most theories, they will be a work in progress for an extended time.  I am not trying to call that into question.  It is the other stuff that kills me.

Just me...now..before I get booted..LOL..I will shut up.

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Scott,

Well, then you must get on the National Weather Service.  Apparently this stormy weather is being caused by La Nina.  So many times we hear that Los Angeles rain is caused by El Nino in El Nino years.  Come on!

We are using the LRC, whether it is a proven theory or not, I will give it credit.  It is the reason we have been able to make these accurate longer range predictions.  It is the LRC theory or not!  Doesn't this make sense?

Gary

chfs327 we all needed to hear about coughing up lugies that was nice lol. Even though the pattern might settle down this week it still remains active we might have something tomorrow and a storm to the north but I like what the GFS paints the following week and after it's going to get fun again,but I want some thunderstorms to track now.

Scott, again, it's not just you. And please, do not "shut up". There's got to be some moderation here and it's people like you, Notes and others who provide that moderation.

Remember, "A flute without holes is not a flute."

-Chevy Chase in Caddyshack

;-)

ha ha Lrc Fan. It will be great

Could you imagine going to opening day and it would be snowing outside when the game started. Hopefully this happens because me and couple others going to opening day and got club level seats

its 38 here now....everything is melting...

-_-

Any new thoughts on Saturday's potential precip?  My hubby, daughter and I are traveling north to Lincoln tomorrow morning, but my hubby has to come back tomorrow evening since he can't stay the night (my mom has a dog that he's allergic to).  We need to know about the weather so we know whether or not he should  make the trip.

according to my sources for some districts ( in ks) it is the super who gets a hold of the bus drivers and they go out and drive around and report back to the super if they think the roads are too dangerous to travel, thats who makes the decision to close or not. Im glad to see there is no ice, sleet, or snow today, and I hope we are done with it for the winter!!! I so need warm weather so I can get outside and enjoy the sunshine!

As a teacher and as a person who has family members who are administrators, I can tell you that it depends on the district.  In smaller, more rural districts, a good superintendent will be up by 4:30 driving the roads, not just city streets but county roads to see if they are passable.  The superintendent and a few bus drivers will make the call as soon as possible.  In larger districts, there is usually a mid-level administrator in charge of transportation who will make the call, although it is usually the superintendent who takes the praise or blame.

It is a thankless job.  Parents are unhappy finding daycare.  Parents are unhappy because of the potential danger.  A superintendent cannot win publicly.

I think it is great to critique the LRC.  It does exist but to what extent?  None of us really knows except Gary.  He tries to explain to all of us but I think that it is much more difficult for all of us to see.  It's great that people are trying to learn and understand the LRC.  Someday I would like to see the LRC put to the test with other theories.  Are there other recurring pattern theories out there?  It would be interesting to see.

I don't like the tone when people just say that Gary is just an on-air TV met.  Gary has been working on his theory for years in spite of his on-air appearances.      

Scott, don't ever shut up!  Your critique and input are valuable.

Kristi

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Kristi,

Thanks, and I just got back from talking to kids at an elemetary school, so I will try to catch up on this discussion that I have been left out of today.

Gary

Kellyann,
Thanks for your info!  I know that a bus run is made here in Raytown to determine if school is canceled or not.

Kristi

Wow snow on opening day that would be great lol. Actually not when baseball starts I always think thats when summer should start I love baseball it's always been a summer pasttime I always think of thunderstorms during that season and not snow. :)

its 39 here...what the heck is going on..

half the sleet is gone...the gutters are gushing water out...and theres less than 50% of the sleet we had this morning....I would really like an answer as to why my yard is the first to melt.....

Reading what Trenton has experienced this year literally has brought me close to breaking down and crying. I would give just about anything for a winter like that. I would take a cut in salary, sell my car and walk to work (3.5 miles each way) for a year, fast, shave myself bald, etc. I need a "fix" bad, I mean real bad!! Snow is my drug of choice and I'm having serious withdrawls. Last year I would drive to areas that got the snow, like when Harrisonville got that late snow and ended up with like 5" and here in Blue Springs we had maybe 1/2". I drove my daughter down there to spend the day and to play in the snow. It sad when I have to pack her bags, practically a suitcase to travel to areas with snow. But I will do what it takes to lay my eyes on covered ground. Heck, yesterday I was on the Plaza getting my tax information dropped off and on the drive out I noticed north facing hills snow covered. I about drove into someone since I was starring in pure delight an awe which soon turned into jealousy and frustration. I was so close to turning off of 70 onto I-35 north just to Blue Springs via Liberty so I could see that snow they got. Gosh darn weather. An absolute love/hate relationship. One year I did drive into about 14" in southern Iowa just across the Missouri/Iowa border. I couldn't wait to get out into it so I pulled off the side of the highway, put the car in park, left it running, ran down an hill just leaping up and down into massive amounts of snow. The song, "what a feeling" from Flashdance is playing in my head.

looking at the NAM, for this coming Monday, the storm looks dry, and even pretty much so with the GFS, but the GFS would still suggest at least getting some flurry activity behind the storm so I wouldn't count flurries out yet...
Still looks to be impressive wind wise and temp swing wise with maybe a sprinkle or a flurry yes the weather pattern is not "dead" in terms of activity but maybe we will dry out for a bit.

Brent that's wierd how it is so warm where you are kci is at 25 degrees and nothing is melting up in leavenworth except on the roads.

Well I guess it should be ok tomorrow for my birthday so that is great I can go out and celebrate with my wife and friends.

Kristi, the small town I taught at would do a bus run but the Super also went out at 4:30 or so and would drive the country roads because our school ran 6 buses. Any school I have been associated with did it this way, basically, the drivers had their input and along with what the Super found out by driving, that is how the decision was made. Kristy, are you ready for the warm weather so everyone can get outside and enjoy?

Its beyond weird...I need someone to come and check and see if I have like a geothermal something or other under my property.....weird...

maybe you're place has geysers underneath Brent I really don't understand.

Brent, in Grandview, nothing is melting at all. The temp is 26

lhahaha

Gary on the NAM it showed a disturbance on sunday it seems like it goes poof near us or south on sunday what are your thoughts?

I really don't post much here mainly because of time.  But I do want to weigh in on the LRC issue.  

If I understand the LRC correctly, Gary is saying that there is a cycle that re-occurs every 50 +- days.  From most of the bloggers, they believe there is a "cycle" but can't agree on the timeframe.  Knowing this, I personally believe there is a cycle but it would be next to impossible to narrow down a time frame to the exact day a system will occur.  If you consider that the diameter of the earth at it's equator is 7926 miles, and the diameter in "our part" of the world is roughly 4800 miles, how can one exactly pinpoint the weather when it travels so far with so many variables?

With all that said, I believe that Gary loves to hear people like Scott, Notes, and others poke holes in his theory because it gives him a chance to explain it or gives him another view from which to look.  All this is a great read and it allows me personally to develop my meteorologist skills and provides me another avenue to learn.  Keep up the good work.

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Excellent points!  And, yes the dialogue is one of the ways to open up all of our minds, to think of new ways to show the evidence of the LRC, and to eventually find some physical reasons for its existence.

There is debate as to its length, although by this time of the year we pretty much have it down.  The first guess was around 54 days in December.  And as we went through the next cycle it became obvious that it is around 50 days.  As you said, it isn't EXACTLY 50 days, but very close. 

Gary

Settle down Gary – That was a pretty pointed statement about the NWS.  We know this would be spawned from the CPC.  Here is what the CPC says about this:

“It is inaccurate to label individual storms or events as a La Niña or El Niño event. Rather, these climate extremes affect the position and intensity of the jet streams, and the normal regions of high and low pressure, which in turn affect the average intensity and track of storms.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensofaq.shtml#RELATIONSHIP

I think it is the public, other private or media mets, and other so called experts that will often weigh in with what the pattern as defined within the ENSO measurements will bring.  I can think of one such media met in town that does this on another station.

The ENSO will provide general TRENDS of what may occur.  I did find a plethora of information clearly detailing the parameters and specifications of ENSO and La Nina and El Nino.  

I know you all are using the LRC.  I am certain it is helping you in your accuracy.  Your call on the cold air in Canada in January was dead on.  

Like I said above, I don’t doubt the concept itself.  You know I support this.  It is the communication and flux of the parameters of the LRC.  

Like I said above…we agree on the hard part.  It is the finer points I take issue with.  It is hard for me to learn and understand how to apply a theory that has been communicated by its creator as having up to an 11 day variance.  That’s all.

Gary, it all makes sense.  I think your passion and forecasting is excellent.  My only bone of contention is the consistency and method of communication of the theory that is so valuable to your team.

If I wasn’t interested – I wouldn’t put in the time to understand.  If you get frustrated with questions regarding this or don’t invite the critique, then just let me know – and I will immediately drop any further questions or thoughts regarding the LRC.

Truce?

So Gary, regarding the cycle duration...above I mentioned what you stated on Feb 7th

""I am in close agreement with your 52 to 56 days, but it is still not perfect.  We haven't wavered from thinking it is around 54 days overall.  There could be some parts of the pattern that seem 45 to 50 days apart and others that seem more like 56 to 58 days.  So, taking a storm and projecting exactly 54 days or close to it has been working, but there are some other factors that you must try to look at." "

Based on this, in the last two weeks, has this above statement changed to yield the 50 day cycle you are talking about?  

Or, is there a point in the near future we might expect to see other parts of the cycle returning at 56-58 days?

To all the people complaining about schools being out or not out... I wasn't thrilled that Liberty didn't call school out yesterday until 6:30 a.m.  That was after a lot of parents were already on their way to school.  Luckily, I don't have to leave until 7:30 & already had day care lined up.  I thought we should have school yesterday until on the way home I almost slid in the ditch on the solid ice.  Then this morning it was worse than it was last night.  I just think the schools should have to call the day off before 6 am.  My dad is a school administrator & he gets so sick of the complaints both for & against having school.  It's a thankless/no win position.

dpollard, you make my day.  :)

there is a new blog up.

Here's my take on the difficulty of fixing the length of the LRC:  we start off thinking the cycle repeats every 50 days +/- 4.  The first time the cycle shows up at the upper limit so we think aha! it's a 54 day event.  But the next time it comes in on the low end of the scale so now we think oops! it's only 46 days.  So it takes quite a few repetitions of the cycle to get an accurate fix on what the base length really is.  As with any science, it's folly to put too much weight on the first set of data, you have to repeat, repeat, repeat, set up your data points, then step back and look at it.  And accept the fact that every once in a while Mother Nature will throw a monkey wrench into the works just to mess with our minds!  LOL  Just my two cents for the day.

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And your point is very important.  By this time of the year we have seen enough cycles to firm up the length of them.  Some will say, then what good is the theory earlier on.  One big answer it the other main part of the LRC.  The "long term" longwaves can be found by early November.  So, we can have a good idea of where storm systems will weaken and strengthen earlier. And, secondly, we can use the theory with much more confidence beginning in January.  This lasts until the pattern changes late in summer.

Gary