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Please tell me that they won't be snow or ice events!  Please, Gary!!!!!

say it isn't soooooo

I am about to change the name of the LRC to Lezaks Recurring Circus!!!

when will it end..have a good weekend Gary....

is it just me or is this storm monday or tuesday to the north seem rather chaotic.

Ahh..just when it gets good, we get a new blog entry.  

Guess we will wait to hear about two storms.

------------------

Scott,

Are you having fun today?  LOL

Gary

♫ They call it stormy monday, yes but tuesday’s just as bad.
They call it stormy monday, yes but tuesday’s just as bad.
Wednesday’s even worse; thursday’s awful sad.

Then I say, "lord have mercy, won’t you please have mercy on me.
Lord, oh lord have mercy, yeah, won’t you please, please have mercy on me. ♫

Well as long as the storm system is to the north, no worries for south KC thank gosh!

LRCfan, that storm is moving like we saw others move during the hybrid or zonal flow.

Looks like Sat evening/overnight might bring some flurries.

Looks like Monday's storm did indeed drop down as expected.  A day or two ago, it had the surface low coming from CO up through NW Nebraska.  I mentioned then, it would drop south into its longwave.  Now it comes right through KS and deepens to the east of us.

Maybe some light showers/flurries on Monday - boring.

Are these the two storms?

yep Scott I agree with you these storms might not hit us directly but it still remains active and exciting.

This month has been very interesting. The Midwest has been at least 10F or more colder than us in terms of average temperature. I don't think many of you realize how much milder our climate is around here in the winter compared with the Midwest core and Upper Midwest.
I will post some evidence of current average high and low temps for the month of February so FAR:
http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=grb
Marshfield, WI
Avg High 20.2F Avg Low 1.4F    Departure from average:  -5.6F
La Crosse, WI            
Avg High 22.6F Avg Low 4.3F    Departure from average:  -7.9F
Rochester, MN
Avg High 19.3F Avg Low 3.8F    Departure from average:  -5.5F
Des Moines, IA
Avg High 25.8F Avg Low 9.5F    Departure from average: -7.7F
Cedar Rapids, IA
Avg High 23.1F Avg Low 6.4F    Departure from average: -8.7F
Madison, WI
Avg High 23.2F Avg Low 8.3F    Departure from average -5.7F
Minneapolis, MN
Avg High 20.2F Avg Low 4.7F    Departure from average -6.3F
Chicago, IL
Avg High 29.1F Avg Low 15.3F   Departure from average -3.7F

This is a slightly stormy pattern with the blowtorch warmth just off to the southwest over time. The Midwest and Northeast look much colder and stormy over the next 1.5 weeks.

Sounds like the same old story Scott.   Storms skirting us or digging east of us... makes the cold not as fun without the snow!

I am with you, bring on spring, as we wont be left out on the action and it will be a very active year.

I cant stop looking at the long range models, something I told myself not to do, and see no cure for this problem.  I see all the potential, but have to wonder if it will just leave us with glancing blow like all the rest.  

Oh well, at least we had a real winter to talk about, no matter what happens from this point on.   Its been active, cold, and crazy.   Just like winter should be!!   Just think,  60 miles in any direction,  we would not be complaining about missing the big one.    The ice to the north and south has me glad we missed out on many of these storms head on.

" I don't think many of you realize how much milder our climate is around here in the winter compared with the Midwest core and Upper Midwest."

Most people do realize that, and prefer it that way. What is the benefit of getting down to 20 below zero? Zero is plenty cold enough. That is why the "real midwest" is losing population while KC and points south are growing.

I'm gonna need therapy. I am just sick of this winter weather and I am even in the south. Haven't had much snow, but plenty of rain,sleet and ice. Our first trail ride is scheduled for 3/15. Normally it is a damp 50 something, but this year it will probably be a blizzard!

I just took this from the NWS and the Hazordous Weather Outlook statement.  What I am curious about is how far south the precip will be Saturday Night?  Gary do you have any idea's...please tell me it will miss Sedalia.  I have to go to work Sunday morning and don't want to have to contend with slick roads....

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
TO OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...WITH POSSIBLY A
RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE EVENING IN AREAS SOUTH OF A PAOLA KANSAS TO
SEDALIA LINE...INCLUDING MOUND CITY KANSAS...BUTLER AND CLINTON
MISSOURI.

ON MONDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI. IT SHOULD
INITIALLY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN
MAY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW AS THIS STORM EXITS THE REGION. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE NORTHERN MISSOURI

Maybe if people start chanting "go away go away go away" instead of inviting it . . spring will arrive.

Let's get busy.

RDub Said:
"Most people do realize that, and prefer it that way. What is the benefit of getting down to 20 below zero? Zero is plenty cold enough. That is why the "real midwest" is losing population while KC and points south are growing."

I would rather have a colder/snowier winter and a MUCH nicer summer that I can enjoy. KC summers are extremely hot and humid compared with locations further off to the northeast.
Your population argument is untrue expect in one case.
That is completely false:
Chicago metro- growing in population
Minneapolis metro- growing in population
Des Moines metro- growing in population
Madison metro- growing in population
Cedar Rapids metro- growing in population
La Crosse micro area- growing in population
Rochester metro- growing in population
Marshfield/Wisconsin Rapids metro- losing population

farmgirl,
Have you considered planting a windbreak? That would help a little concerning the very windy conditions that can often occur out in rural areas.

RDub,
Here are the statistics. Apparently the Upper Midwest and Midwest Core are a lot more "desirable" than you realized.

Here are the general census data trends:

Madison, WI: metro
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/55/55025.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/55/55049.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/55/55021.html

La Crosse, WI: metro
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/55/55063.html

Rochester, MN metro
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/27/27109.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/27/27039.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/27/27157.html

Minneapolis, MN metro
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/27/27053.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/27/27019.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/27/27139.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/27/27037.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/27/27171.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/27/27163.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/27/27025.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/27/27003.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/27/27059.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/27/27141.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/27/27123.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/55/55109.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/55/55093.html

Des Moines, IA: metro
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/19/19153.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/19/19049.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/19/19181.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/19/19121.html

Cedar Rapids, IA metro
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/19/19113.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/19/19011.html

Chicago, IL metro
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/17/17043.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/17/17097.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/17/17111.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/17/17089.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/17/17093.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/17/17197.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/17/17031.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/17/17063.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/18/18089.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/18/18127.html

Wisconsin Rapids/Marshfield, WI micro area:
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/55/55141.html

I hate warm ups in the winter...The air should be cold, moist, with constant snow...I cant wait for the the next big hopefully huge snow producer to come through the area when ever that will be or if it will appen this season...I would be extremely happy to see a good 8 to 10+ inch swath from KC north to Atchison and St. Joe, east to Trenton, Kirksville, Brookfield, Marceline, and areas south as well who havnt seen much snow.

I want to see areas like Atchison, St. Joe, and Trenton hit the 50+ inch mark like Gary said some areas in the viewing area could likely see in his first 45 day forecast of this winter season.

I dont think these next two storms will be all that whoopy..Just my opinion..For one thing Marceline will be too far north to likely get anything out of Saturdays storm and Monday doesnt seem impressive.

I cant wait to see if that huge winter storm you are predicting with LRC in late March or early April with a possible blizzard near us will happen. If that happens that would be concrete evidence in my opinion that the LRC exists, which i know it does, but many people dont. If it does happen the sceptics will probably say "it was just a coincidence" and "think nothing of it"...but I think deep down they actually know there is something to it.

One day the LRC will be found and a new age of weather forecasting will be born. People will be able to depend on the weather and they wont have a reason say "those meteorologists have no clue what they are talking about." It will be awesome to see the LRC evolve and change the way we forecast the weather.

lezakEF5 said:
I hate warm ups in the winter...The air should be cold, moist, with constant snow
******************************

Ever consider moving to Buffalo New York?

Anyway winters almost over and spring is around the corner.

I guess you'll be pretty miserable! LOL oh man.

Gary,

I just emailed you some photos from the Lunar Eclipse Wednesday night.

CentralOP2...Is it a contest?  Kansas says the same things about points south of us.  Its been a pretty cold winter here.  Cold is cold.  So its 10 degrees colder north of here.  I'm guess you must have grown up north of here and tell people this is nothing compared to where you came from.  No, its not as cold as Minneapolis or other midwest locations.  What's your point?  This part of the country has also experienced quite a bit more snow than parts of North and South Dakota, and western Minnesota this year.  It is what it is.  I'd be glad to google things too and give you links to it.  Yes KC is hotter and more humid than those places in the summer.  I guess we must win that contest?  Sounds like you don't like KC.  Too bad, its a great place, but you do have a choice.

Steve:

LOL...I hate warm weather in winter...When Spring comes it needs to be warm, not hot, not too cold, and it need to have many storms..(severe storms)...I cant wait for Spring, but it is still Winter...BRING ON THE SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Its ok for the blizzard to come after spring has started though because thats what I have been waiting for...Then spring can come and thaw us out.

There is no real or fake midwest.  It is what it is.  And unless KS and MO succeed, it too is in the midwest.  

Maybe we can just pretend we aren't here.

LOL

weathergeek,
I grew up in central MN and lived there for quite a few years. That area has a mixture of farms and forests. It really has absolutely nothing in common with E Kansas or W Missouri at all. I am in the long process of moving back to MPLS or surrounding area soon. You have to remember that I find 20F mild and 80F hot.

Scott,
I have said before that we are in between two regions. We are at the far SW edge of the Midwest and the far eastern edge of the Central Plains. The Midwest CORE is located northeast of Kansas City, though.

On to the weather...
I agree with Gary, and it appears temps will warm back up to the 40s and 50s with a few fronts knocking the temps back down to the 30s for a couple of days. We may get one more modified arctic front in March. However, the snowpack is rather extensive over areas of the Midwest and Northern Plains so that has to be watched. The weather pattern will continue to produce snow over that area. The snow zone has been quite sharp this winter when you compare snow amounts for Madison, WI and Minneapolis, MN.  Madison has recorded nearly 90 inches so far this season which is the most snow they have recorded in a season. Minneapolis has seen less than 30 inches. I have never seen such an extreme difference for snowfall amounts when lake effect is not an issue in either location.

lol. I think that Blizzard will be an icestorm. Thats just my Openion thou.

If it is a Blizzard then let it drop 1-2 feet of snow

Hey Scott,  just wondering why you wanted to know if I use my cell phone as a modem?  BTW I plan on trying to use the LRC to detertime when/where to chase this spring.

Scott,
secede :)  LOL

The weekend is here!

The 18Z GFS looks active and cool in the extended.

Fire Dog,
Look at the 18Z GFS tonight. I think the active part of the LRC for early March may be right on schedule. I see a some occasional warmer, but the storminess has returned quickly during this winter season.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/18/gfs_slp252288_l.shtml

wow no 1 is talking

no more warm weather!.....

wye dont u speek lyke normel peepel du?... chfs237?

I love snow.

With that said, I'm ready for spring.  I went to Heartland Nursery (on I-470) this afternoon to just look around and talk to the workers.  I've been buying plants from the owners since 1972 when they opened a small place on Blue Ridge.  It was really nice to look at what they are doing, planning in my head for the planting season, figuring out color combinations, etc. etc. etc.

I love snow.

I'm ready for spring.

Gary, That's the best 7-day I've seen since November. If you update later with anything more interesting than a major warm-up, I will join Stormdog in the corner to hurl! Do I see golf in the near future?...

Hey, everybody hurry, look outside, I think I saw a SNOWFLAKE!

  I looked out did'nt see anything. where you at?

There needs to be a new blog...This one is getting boring

Yes, tranquil weather is so boring. I love being bored...

*************

This 'break' is nice for the weather team!  The weather will get exciting again, probably sooner rather than later.

Jeremy

I see a snowstorm for early March without a doubt for someone in the Plains.

*************

I see one for parts of the upper Midwest on Monday:)

Jeremy