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Good morning, Jeremy!  Now that the temps are beginning to fluctuate quite a bit here, do you anticipate any severe weather in the next few weeks?

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In the next 5-7 days doubtful.  But after that it is really hard to tell.  We heading in that direction though...we just need some warmer air:)

Jeremy

hurray. Maybe Olathe will get some dusting out this storm.

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I updated the blog...check it out for snow/precip. info.

Jeremy

How much snow do you think Sedalia will see tonight?  Are we still talking a dusting?

right now My mom says it is Light snowing outside. I looked outside and all i saw was fog. My dad also said its snowing so i guess. Lght snow here a Old 56 highway exit ************** With the low stratus/fog deck in place in some areas flurries and snow grains have been falling from these low clouds. You are not seeing things:) Jeremy

Hey everyone! Back from the dead, well the flu anyway!  I wanted so badly to put a vote in for spring earlier this week, but couldn't make it up the stairs!  Where are we at as far as average precipitation?  I know many here love the snow, as do I at the beginning of winter, but I think I would enjoy a break from the any form of precipitation for a few days at least.  It seems we have been spoiled here sometimes in February.  I recall it being warm enough a few years ago mid Feb. to paint the outside of the house, I think it was around 70.  Thanks for your forcasting!
Audrey **************** Audrey, Glad to have you back and feeling better. A vote for Spring can come at anytime...I'm ready! Jeremy

I saw the light snow this morning . . . very very light . . . right around 135th and Switzer -- ************ Thanks for the report!

Good morning.   The sun looks great and since there's no wind, it's almost nice outside.  Had to go out and fill up the bird feeders this morning, sure will be glad to see those 50's, these gray days & cabin fever is getting old.

************** Hopefully we can touch 50 on Sunday or Monday in spots. Tuesday looks very cold again! Jeremy

I have a flight out early Tuesday morning, are we thinking just rain? I have a long drive and must get up early so would like any thoughts about my travel. Thanks...

Thanks for the update!!

Well it looks like we are going to get jipped again for the second time in a row.  really stinks when the storms miss you to the south like the last two have.

Keep in mind normal for STJOE  is 46 and 25 now. . . so 50 is barely above normal.  I have not averaged out Feb temps yet but I  bet we are 9-11 below the mean.  

I await the third week of March for my 10-14 inch blizzard like event to take me from 46.3 to 60 inches and the official number of 30 can go to 45. . . Holy SAt / Easter Sunday storm 22&23 March.   *************** 50 will feel great...when it happens. But it won't be anything out of the ordinary this time of year. Any idea why the official total in St. Joe seems low? Jeremy

What would you say the rain % chance is for east olathe?

Byan. ************** Around 30% Jeremy

Im with you stjoelawyer...Bring on the blizzard even though it wont get Marceline any where close to 50 inches unless it was like a 30 to 40 inch snowfall which is just crazy to even begin to think about....But a good 10 to 15 inch snowfall would be awesome....I would like a 2 foot snowfall

Hi.

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OFFICIAL precip, snow the most have been way off for years. . . the 5 Feb storm that was 10-11  on the 4-5 was officially 7.1 inches.  I do not know the reason maybe they only measured the snow on the 5th ond did not count th snow on the 4th?. . . back on the 22nd of Dec 9-10 across the area official measurement 6.5 [ we also officially received only like.11inch moisture content due to the electronic gauge]  I sometimes think that it is a guess.  There have been other 4 and 5 inch or so snows that came in at 2.5 or 3 it is just much more noticeable this year because it has snowed many more times than in the past 27 years.   I live only 5 OR 6 miles due east of the recoding station I expect some variation but really Jeremy it's bad. 7 inches if the 16 inch difference can come from the 4-5 Feb and 22 Dec storm  alone the other nine inches are about 1 to 1.5 over 6 or so event.
TED

Have you looked at the radar and water vapor loop its crossing I-70 but I have 36 degrees now milky sun shine lite wind.

stjoelawyer - As much as I love snow, NO BLIZZARD!!   Wife and fly out of KCI on the 22nd for our 25th wedding anniversary trip to Southern California.   It can blow and snow after we leave....

Bill

still got strep throat. Hopefully Monday we can see some small hail in some of those thunderstorms

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I don't think we've had any t-storms in the forecast.  Maybe some rain/snow though. 

Jeremy

 Hello Jeremy,  On live ESP it looks like the precip is coming from Southwest, and moving up, How come not a greater chance of precip for some of the viewing, is some pushing it down, I don't know, thanks for the time

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There is some drier air the precip. will run into...and the dividing line of some precip. or none will likely be very close to KC.  That's why I provided the map showing the chances.

Jeremy

You on antibiotics chfs?   I would rather have strep than the flu that has been going around.   Im sure you will be fine and back to school on Monday.  

I dont see much out of either of these storms for us.   They are not strong to begin with and temps will be marginal at best.    March looks like it will be coming in like a lion as promised.   The severe threat along with possible big winter storms will make this one to remember.    

Are there ever any updates on the blog on a weekend day when precip is headed our way?

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How many blog updates do you need a day:)  I'll update the blog later.  The clouds are pushing in and precip. is trying to work northeast.  The precip. chance map I showed earlier is still valid.

Jeremy

MAN having a bad cold started yesterday, worst was last nite, hopefully I am on the uphill slide.  Well I guess we can't hog all of the precip. this year;)   Yea it looks like winter may be beginning to show some cracks, but wow what a wild ride it has been and we still have March!

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Get better soon!  The 18Z NAM is showing the cutoff for precip. right around KC or just a hair south.  Will likely stick with 20% chance of metro and higher south.  Although I may push the 50% line a little farther south.

You were cheated last winter, you have a right to the snow this year!

Jeremy

the radar looks like it could rain all night...or snow....lol

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Your chance is better than northern areas for a change.  But the precip. is running into drier air.  You should see something, but just don't count on a whole lot.  Hopefully you at least see a mix or some snow instead of all rain.

Jeremy

WELL EXCUUUUSE ME!!!!! As far as I can tell there has only been one blog today...I don't know, when you work a 18hr shift, you see things. Sorry I ask, have a good one.

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You can always ask questions in the comments section if the current blog doesn't answer your question.  We have something in common...long weekend shifts:)

Jeremy

kelly dont be that way. Im sick and i dont want hatred on this board. if you dont have nothing nice to say about someone you must be talking about Hilary Clinton.

Any way Im hoping Olathe gets something out this storm. It seems that we always get the finger to every weather event

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No politics now...otherwise we'd really have some arguements:)  I think both of us were kidding.

Olathe and KC are on the northern edge of this storm. 

Jeremy

There is really no need for Jeremy to update the blog if nothing has changed in his mind.    

I agree, the precip will have a hard time breaking through the dry air

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Atmosphere is saturating...but the storm won't push far enough north to include the entire viewing area in the precip. 

Jeremy

ok. Its only around 34F outside right now and hopefull we will get some rain and little snow from this storm. im wanting atleast 42 inches in Olathe By April 1st and That could happen when this cycles back again. Hopefully the Blizzard there calling for will drop 15-20 inches in Olathe

You feeling better chfs327?    Too bad we dont have a big storm brewing this weekend.   Nothing like a snowstorm when your trapped inside sick :)

Silly rabbit.  Dry day.  LOL...maybe, but whatever hits will be light.

Your idea about the dry air was good and it held for quite awhile...but its going away.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us_loop-12.html

Looking at the soundings, 850/900 is saturated.  Its just that last little bit above the ground that is dry that would prohibit any rain.

Might move your graphics North just 10-15 miles.

I bet this pushes on through in a few hours....

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I don't see it getting much farther north than Weston or Leavenworth.  So the chances are fine for now.  The RUC has KC on the edge.

Jeremy

I think i am going to tell as many people as I can about the upcoming blizzard.

;-)

Rad. Im feeling worst than I did yesterday and the day before that. I have strep with a Really Bad cough. Oh well. Sitting at home watching the Combine wating for it to start raining. Severe weather season looks fun. Ill probabily start tracking storms

Fair enough.  I agree.  Your graphic has Leavenworth clear.  I think the whole bands need to shift north 10-15 miles.  If that is important.

I would leave the metro in 50%


But...its up to you, right?

LOL - still sick and onry.  

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The 50% line goes to basically Olathe, Gardner, OP areas.  I'm more concerned if it will be a mix or all snow...not who is in 20% or 50%:)

Get well soon!

Jeremy

chfs327 - severe storm tracking is much different in many ways than snow.  Good luck.

yeah I know. You stay indoors for snow and your outside on the road for severe thunderstrms and recoring tornados

I know Scott must be sick if he is posting this much on a Saturday on a little storm.  The flu and strep have been crazy this year.   Half of the people I know have had some sort of illness.   The dreaded cough is the final and longest stage.  

Hope you all get well soon and the 50 degree weather is just what the doctor ordered.    

anyone here?...why isn't it raining yet?

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Check out the NWS radar for KC.  The precip. is still about a county away from you.  When it starts it will likely be either a mix or snow.

Jeremy

This is a link I saved from Scott...  the pattern seems very familiar.   A wall of moisture inching its way, never really making its final destination in KC.    Will the high pressure win out, or will the low track just close enough to get us in some of the action?  

Opps,  forgot the link...

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KEAX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20080206&endTime=-1&duration=2

Jeremy,

Moderate to heavy snow falling right now here in Salina KS and accumulating (esp on grass)... We still have quite an amount of precipitation to go also too! Unless this system weakens as it moves east, I'm thinking a nice 2-4" band of snow is going to accumulate with this. Take this for what its worth..

Jon

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Jon,

Thanks for the report!  Some snow accumulation is possible this evening.  Still thinking within the viewing area dusting to 1" in spots.  If it is all snow slightly more in a few locations.  This is mainly areas south and southwest of KC. 

The 12Z GFS still has a large storm for March 6-7. I am optimistic for more snowfall in March considering the flow pattern projections for the Pacific. Also, most of Canada has a huge pool of cold air that can be tapped by storm systems. This is an entirely different pattern setup that I have not seen in quite some time.

jbtornado,
At least all of this precipitation is really boosting the soil moisture values for areas of the Plains. Topeka has had the most precipitation ever recorded between December through February this winter season.  

it looks like on the accuweather rain/snow radar....that the very northern most tip of the precip, (which happens to be just south of my house) is starting to turn to snow!

maybe I will see some tonight

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I think you should see something...best bet is either a mix or just snow.  Let us know if anything sticks.

Jeremy

Its Snowing at Old 56 Highway Exit

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Thanks for the report!

Jeremy

Its a pretty nice day today...I finally et to go back to school Monday after missing a week from having my appendix taken out after getting appendicitis. I have lots of homework mainly in stupid Spanish 2. It would be great if it would just snow everyday this winter...Im already missing the snow after just getting around 3.5 inches the other day here in Marceline.

this is growing far enough north in central KS. . . makes me wonder if we might not get something dewpoint is 25 temp 36 evaporational cooling would take me down to 32 or so andf I get snow time will tell.

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If you see anything it will be snow...I still think it stays just south of you.  Might be close...at least the 18Z GFS pulls it north to near St. Joe with a few flurries.

Jeremy

who knows. I would love to be in Florida. They are the only state in the contiguatious 48 states who doesnt have this nasty flu virus spreading.

nothing yet......

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Watch this radar...

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?EAX

http://www.accuweather.com/radar-large.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&site=MO_&type=SIR&anim=1&level=state&large=1

it shows me as getting snow...and its not...is the atmosphere saturating?

Big beautiful flakes in South O.P.!!!  Bring it on!!!!  Picture perfect!

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