NBC Action Communities

I sent you some pictures this morning of the snow on the trees and the snow total Jeremy.

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Thanks...check your email.

Jeremy

I hope the changes....are harrisonville getting another 3 inch snow....because this ones going to melt! fast....

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Brent...please enjoy the snow this morning.  As you know...no guarantee you'll have another one this season. 

Jeremy

Good Morning Jeremy..

I see that you already have a total from Grandview..  Checked my backyard and I have 2 - 2.5 inches.   We live on the eastside of Grandview, 3 blocks from Longview Lake....

Bill and Melissa

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Thanks for the total.  The amounts vary within cities...so always send your total when possible.

Jeremy

ok

The drive home from work this am sure was pretty. Measured for my totals today. I have 1.2 inches of sleet (from Thursday) and on top of that 2.25 inches of snow. It is already starting to melt. We are taking it all in though. Enjoy the day.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

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Monica,

Finally some snow for you!  Enjoy...it may not last past today:(

Jeremy

Wow! Another biggy for south Blue Springs!
Snow Blowers will be on garage sales this spring along with snow shovels, folks in St. Joe may want to come this way for some deals since they have worn them out up north.
Anymore all these little teasers are just annoying at best. Now a week of drying out again over a few flakes.

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Sorry about your snow total...

Jeremy

Nothing in Excelsior Springs

I have a snow total from leavenworth, nothing!!!!!!!!! lol I'm glad the south finally did get some snow they needed it.

i know its late but about 2 inches in sedalia.

"no guarantee you'll have another one this season.  

Jeremy"

Noooo!

what about the march blizzard?....

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Brent,

Jeremy is just trying to keep your hopes in check.  I see many more chances of snow.  It is still the same pattern!  Our next chance is Monday night already.

Gary

This was my kind of snow...pretty falling snow at night and temps warm enough to melt everything the next day!  

Warmth.  Need warmth. *********** Did we just agree on something? Jeremy

A block or two away from Jo Co E Airport got about 2 & 1/2" of snow last night. As the sun rose it started to get windier, was that from the snow's evaporation or something. I want snow storms that are BIG, not little nickle and dime snow storms. What a rotten winter. Will there be severe weather in my neighborhood during march?

  Byan.

Well it looked nice early this morning.....I am surprised the .6 inches covered everything so nice and white....

Quickly melting now *********** Heavy...another chance late Monday into Tuesday. Jeremy

Congrats to the southern bloggers who finally got some snow even if it is going to be short lived you finally got some. Now all we need is for the entire metro to get a good 4-6 inches have it stick around for a couple of days then bring on spring. ************ I'm with you on the Spring part...not so much on the snow part:) Jeremy

snow that does not last 24 hours before it melts is rain.

Here is some quick mental gymnastics.

"This is just the next 8 days, so it is already on our 7 day.  We expect the Pacific flow to break through the west coast, but it could be quite active if the jet stream stays south of us.  The Arctic air will retreat early next week.  We expect one, perhaps a second storm system around the 21st, right now the first one may just miss us to the south, but it could suddenly turn north as the flow amplifies around the 16th.  The pattern stays active with the warm ups still in question.  "

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2008/02/13/2534506.aspx

"We expect the Pacific flow to break through the west coast, but it could be quite active if the jet stream stays south of us."

What does this mean?  More zonal for the "Pacific flow to break through?"

On Feb 16th, notice the huge west coast ridging. - Miss.

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2008/02/15/2542797.aspx

"The Arctic air will retreat early next week." - Written on the 13th, so I am assuming this is for the 20th.  Here are the temp means for KMCI from the 20th until today.

-18
-19
-12
-10

Every day double digit below normal mean temps.  Not sure if the cold air retreated.

"We expect one, perhaps a second storm system around the 21st, right now the first one may just miss us to the south, but it could suddenly turn north as the flow amplifies around the 16th"

Ok..let me see if I can weed through this one.  Two storms.  

The first one may just miss us to the south or it could turn north.  Huh?  Perhaps on the 16th?  DIRECT HIT!  This forecast was put on on the 13th, and this storm was forecasted for three days later.  Um...I would expect a direct hit.

The second around the 21st.  Nailed it!

So...in this part of the forecast, we had four elements.  The pacific flow - miss.  The retreating arctic air - miss.  The storm on the 16th - hit and the storm on the 21st - hit.

All this forecast was within 8 days of the forecast date.  All in all - um...well, ok I guess.

I am looking forward to the second stretch of this forecast that ends March 4th.  

;-)

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Scott,

The first 10 days of the 45 day forecast were more model driven than anything else, and the only real miss is that the Arctic air didn't retreat.  I had modelitis with this one, and I shouldn't have bought what the models were saying at the time.  We knew that the December 31st/January 1st was strong and Arctic, so this was a mistake.  But, the other aspects of the first 10 days have been a hit, not a miss, this storm came straight off the Pacific! 

Wow, you are ready to rip it apart!  Now, once again, can we wait until the forecast is done?  Please?  We love you Scott!

Gary

 

Perhaps I should have taken readings beyond the deck.....it appears 3" may be a bit under the average snowfall for Paola.  After hiking (I needed snow shoes) with Windy in the park I would venture that areas of Paola received 4", particularly in the woods south of the City Park.  3"...4"...either way it's going to be quite a mess with the warm up....whenever that happens.  Full cloud cover, 32 degrees here right now.  I'm not taking chances, I'm going out to shovel some more snow.  Great exercise is about the only positive thing I can think of to say.

Are the models taking this storm further south on monday night and tuesday I see a trend that it is or is it just me?

Ok im ready for the temperatures to warm and melt the snow here in Marceline that hasnt melted yet because it is just all nast and slushy...As soon as that goes away bring on the snow/blizzards, or whatever wants to come in the form of winter weather until spring.

I cannot wait till severe weather season...From what we are gettin this winter, I think it is going to be very active and exciting!!

Is there going to be a Spring forecast??....I hope it is active!

Wow...Gary, I got you out of bed on the weekend with just that entry?

LOL.  Yes, I will wait until it is all done..but had some free time.

Yeah..when is the Spring forecast?  Should be able to put it out pretty quick.

Question, Gary - when do we get to critique the Winter forecast from long time ago?  March 15th?

Gary said:
"I see many more chances of snow.  It is still the same pattern!  Our next chance is Monday night already."
Gary
February 24, 2008 9:45 AM
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Do you really see , as you said, "MANY" more chances of snow Gary? Can you elaborate?

This 2.5 - 3 incher for Olathe kind of "snuck up" on us, didn't it? But I'm not complaining! It was the prettiest snow Olathe has had this winter, in my opinion!

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We were the only one's even considering accumulating snow as early as Friday.  Check Gary's blog from around 3:45pm Friday.  Some aspects of the storm were not expected, but there chance was there.

Jeremy

ethalo - chances are just that...chances.  Moisture and cold air is enough to give a chance.  

Even like the 20% chance we had last night

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I see you forgot to mention the areas early Saturday that were in the 80% & 50% chance that ended up with the most snow.  You must be bored again today. 

Jeremy

I was watching another station's weathercast and they had Westphalia, KS with 5 inches of snow...Thats a prettty good accumulation.

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Why were you watching another station:)

 

LOL Scott you need warmth???
32F is mild enough for me and much better than dealing with 95F+ temps with high humidity!!!!
The Midwest core has been much colder than us so far this month.

Well here in Spring Hill, KS we got about 3.2 inches of snow.  Looked to be about the most we have gotten all year here it seems.  I was a little surprised last night when I went out to get dinner, that the roads were covered with a half-inch of snow at 7:30pm.

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Thanks for the report!

Jeremy

This was a nice snow. If we could have a weeks with highs in the 40's and overnight snows like this one each week, that would be a great winter. I am of course speaking in the perspective of getting 2" of snow over 2 hours last night.

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It was a nice snow...even better now that it is gone at my house:)

Jeremy

new NAM is out continues to go south for monday night and tuesday let's see what gfs says.

CentralOP2 - I want warmth.  Not hot.

50s-70s would be fine.  0-10 - 90-100 is for the birds.

i was just wondering if anyone knew when the NWS will be doing the SkyWARN spotter talk for liberty? it was put off due to the weather the other day and i went to NWS website and it does not have a date.

thank you

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I'm sure they will have the site updated early this week.  I would check back or email someone at the NWS for the latest.

Jeremy

Man still not feeling good at all, have not even looked at the models yet but the word of mouth on the blog is that the  next system is trending south?  Well I'm glad the southern areas got a decent snow, they need it this year!

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Nick...you may see some snow on Monday/Tuesday.  Still not putting numbers on it...but probably will by 5/10pm shows.

Jeremy

Looking good for snow here up north Monday night-Tuesday?

I am looking for 75 - 80 degrees here. :)  It will be a little while before that happens tho. :(

Kristi

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Kristi,

I'm with you!  I want a warm up soon!

Jeremy

The snow total for where I live in Blue Springs was right at 1.0 inches. There was a difference for sure from north to south across the city. Seasonal totals are now at 15.6 inches here.

Nothing fell in Tonganoxie, thank God.  So sick of snow and ready for spring.  Kind of concerned at how severe our spring could be.  We have been spared any real rough weather since 2000.  We shall see.  Do you guys think it will be a rough spring?

latest 18Z models have storms shifting south with GFS projecting the ULL over Joplin, bringing 3+ to the area. moisture isn't looking as impressive as previous runs though.

I sure hope we get a chance to dry the ground out soon.  Love the sunshine, and it's so nice outside (ok, 62 would be nicer) but we need to thaw and drain the ground some before we get anymore rain.  My poor dog just came in with mudballs for feet!

The 18Z GFS looks good for a small snow event for all areas of the metro. About .11 to .33 inches of QPF between Midnight Tuesday through 6AM. I am only expecting a couple of inches if this materializes.

StormWyndd,
It looks to be dry tommorrow before another storm hits Monday night into Tuesday. It only looks to be a minor snow event at this point.

JEREMY,
You said in response to my earlier post: "We were the only one's even considering accumulating snow as early as Friday.  Check Gary's blog from around 3:45pm Friday.  Some aspects of the storm were not expected, but there chance was there.
Jeremy
February 24, 2008 11:56 AM


My post was not directed to you, Jeremy, but to Gary. But, since you added a comment, I will ask why were you being so defensive? I wasn't comparing your forecast to "other stations"..you brought that matter into the post..not me.  (I thought that was "taboo" on here..but, then again, if one doesn't watch others now and then, how would we have anything to compare you to ? I think it's good to watch how poorly others do now and then!
)
And I wasn't complaining about Olathe getting 2-3 inches(which was unexpected for MY hosehold..since Gary said on the Fri. 10PM news that he had "downgraded" the chance to 10% ) No accumulation amounts were given at that time. And it was a surprise after all was said and done, because I don't sit here 24/7, and I rarely have time to watch the news on weekends.

Now, on to my main reason for that post...I simply was asking Gary if he really sees many more chances for snow. And if so, when?
I guess I'll wait for Gary to answer when he has time.

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There are many more storm chances coming up in the next several weeks.  Next one is Monday into Tuesday.  That should bring you some rain/snow.

Jeremy

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=outreach-schedule

Jeremy and nikieis that's the length for the NWS storm spotter classes.  Looks like the next one closest to Liberty is March 14th.

Also, Jeremy,
Scott responded to my question out of courtesy (Thank you, Scott)..and I think that his thinking was along the same lines as mine...20% chance for metro...but, still, that did not equate how MUCH, in terms of accumulations. (chance vs. accumulation...not the same as far as I know)
The amount that we received was the surprise part of it.

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I'd agree I was somewhat surprised from my early thinking(Sat. a.m.) that the 1-2" band made it to OP & Olathe. 

Jeremy

hey Jeremy if you got any contacts with the NWS about that March 14th date, there information is very conflicting.  Shepherds Center of the Northland and Northcross United Methodist Church are two complete different places and neither are in Liberty.

Was the storm really a surprise?    Nobody gave us a chance as the trends were way to the south Saturday night/Sunday morning.   If you went with the models, then yes 10% was what it looked like.    Gary was the only one to say Friday night that we had to watch this storm and he wanted to temper any anticipation of another missed storm so he did not give any specifics.    As with most the storms this year, it had a very fine cutoff and a very narrow band of heavy precip.   If the storm tracked just a hair south, we all would have missed it.    With these storms of late, nowcasting seems to be the only reliable option since the difference of 50 miles can be huge!

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Even 20 miles was huge.  The Plaza had a dusting and I went 20 miles home and there was 2" of snow.  It was a fun storm to witness and forecast.

Jeremy

I;m loving this Winter!! But it needs stay longer, so I have a chance to sled.

Brent, way to go!  Jeremy used your photo on the news just now.