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Not much to add to the earlier update...just a few things I'll add. First tonight we can expect clouds and areas of fog. After 3am a few showers/sprinkles may try to sneak into the area from the west. This should be light and move out quickly in the a.m. Otherwise, the 00Z GFS moves the storm along pretty quick on Monday. This would keep precip. totals light in the metro and would mean mainly rain and a brief change to snow Monday evening/night. Snow accumulations look most likely the closer you get to the Iowa border.
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The weekend ended dry across the region, and overall today wasn't too bad. Highs were in the 30s and 40s and probably 50-100% of the snow that fell last night melted this afternoon. Our brief dry spell won't last too long though as another storm will take aim at the region on Monday.
Tonight and the first half of Monday we will see south to southwest winds across the region, so temperatures tonight will only drop into the 28-34 degree range in most spots. The first half of Monday will be the 'warmest' part of the day as highs should top out in the low 40s in Kansas City. I'm thinking the combination of the warm front staying to our south, cloudy to mostly cloudy skies, and a surface wind blowing off either a snow covered ground or cold/damp ground will limit highs once again. I hope I am wrong and we hit 50, but 41-43 looks much more realistic than 50. The trend for the surface low on the models has been to push it farther south with each run...if this trend continues then even the 40s may be too warm! The low passes by with a cold front during the afternoon. Once the front passes the winds switch to the north and any warm-up is quickly done. Precipitation will then break out likely in the form of rain and then mix with and change to snow. The timing, duration, and intensity of the precipitation will go a long way in possible snow accumulations. Right now it looks like 1-2"+ could fall somewhere north of I-70. But I do think some snow falls in the metro too, and accumulations can't be ruled out.
Here is the position of the surface low at 6pm Monday. This forecast is from the 18Z GFS.
Notice the 540 thickness is basically right on top of KC. This would be a good indicator of a possible transition to snow. The green shades represent liquid precipitation forecast amounts. Areas north of KC would transition quicker to snow, that is one reason why I am favoring those areas for possible snow accumulation right now.
Once the low passes by winds will also gust to around or over 30mph, so blowing snow may be a concern too. Needless to say, Monday looks like another potentially exciting day! I'll add more thoughts later on tonight. Make sure to watch NBC Action News for the latest on Monday's storm!
Jeremy