Good morning everyone,
March begins Saturday and it will come in like a lamb. Look below at this temperature forecast for Saturday. This is the GFS forecast for high temperatures Saturday:
The highs around the Big Bend area of Texas will be around 85 on Saturday. The highs over parts of eastern Alaska to northwest Canada will be around -35 degrees. This is a 120 degree contrast. ONE HUNDRED TWENTY! This alone should be a warning sign of what lies ahead during the next month. March will have some wild moments and it will be roaring like a lion at times.
We believe that the weather pattern across the northern hemisphere is cycling every 50 days (give or take a few days as it isn't perfectly 50 days). The weather pattern set up during October and early November and has continued. We noticed the pattern repeating in December and now we are about to move into the fourth cycle of 50 days (this year's LRC). As we move through each cycle we learn more about the weather pattern. By January we gain enough confidence to make longer range forecasts. And, this year we have finally gotten a bit more specific in these forecasts and, so far, the forecasts have been more accurate than any other long range forecasting technique. On January 2nd we issued a forecast for the next 50 days, including the forecast of Arctic outbreaks for the second half of January, and for harsh winter weather as we moved into February. Other forecasts, based on La Nina and other factors, were calling for a warm second half of January into February. And, even today some of these long range forecasts are still calling for it to possibly be above average in March. There is no way that it will be. This pattern is too consistent.
So, why has it been so cold? Another part of the LRC are the positions of what I call "long term" longwave troughs and ridges. I believe these big features, that recur regularly, are set by early November, and this is what we use to issue the winter forecast so early (although maybe we should wait until we know the cycle better in December before issuing the winter prediction). One strong feature is a "long term" longwave trough located just east of Kansas City, near or just west of the Mississippi River (look at the map above). When we issued the winter forecast in November we noticed this feature. I didn't realize, in November, that it was going to be dominating the weather pattern, but by December we thought that we were in for an exciting winter ride of storms and cold. But, we also knew that the biggest snowstorms would be located near or just east of the trough position (Madison, WI has shattered their all time seasonal snow record and are heading to over 100 inches). This "long term" longwave trough is one of the biggest reason's for the cold and stormy winter in our part of the nation. Storm systems intensify as they move into the trough. Even weaker features tend to produce storm systems. So, this is why we have had so many days with snow (about 30 days with snowfall this season), and it has been wet. Remember, this pattern will continue, if you believe in the LRC, through spring, and even into summertime in a very weakened state.
Now, back to the temperature map above. A brutally cold Arctic air mass is forming now over Canada, and it is going to shift back to the west over northwest Canada and Alaska. As we saw last month, once it gets to this spot it will come down into the United States and affect Kansas City. So, just think about it. If this Arctic air mass is going to come down, and the first surge will be due next week, and then the series of 4 to 7 storm systems returns as has happened in the first three cycles, then it just makes you wonder what will happen. The last two times through the cycle, Arctic air was close enough to our region to be tapped by many of these storm systems. Will the March version of this part of the cycle do the same thing?
Spring and winter will be begin a major battle that will last into April and May. The good news......eventually the longer days will win out and the jet stream will begin retreating. So, warmer days are ahead, but expect wild ups and downs during the next month with a few winter storms. Severe thunderstorms will also be possible, but initially the threats will likely be south of our local area.
Have a great day!
Gary