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TURNING OUR ATTENTION TO OUR NEXT STORM

Good evening bloggers,

The latest data is trending towards better rain chances on Sunday.  A cold front will be approaching our area around noon Sunday at the same time 50° to 55° dewpoints arrive.  Also, a trough will be diving into the Rockies as well, turning our flow aloft nearly parallel to the front, creating a heavy rain set up.

Rain & T-Storms will explode along & just behind the front about noon on Sunday.  The question is where will the front be located?  At this time it looks like right near I-35. So, the potential for 1-2" of rain exists along & southeast of I-35 with .50" or less north & west.  This is stil not set in stone, as a 1-2 hour difference in the frontal timing can mean heavy rain in most locations or heavy rain 50-100 miles southeast of KC.  On the map below (total rainfall for the next storm), notice the sharp cutoff in rainfall to the northwest.  It will be feast or famine with this storm.  In the meantime, enjoy Friday & Saturday as we will have some very nice weather.  Saturday still looks sunny with highs in the 60s.

Below is a zoomed in version of the above map.

 

Have a good Friday,

Jeff

Published Thursday, February 28, 2008 9:29 PM by wxman5

Comments

 

Randy Cooper said:

first comment! what are the chances of chillicothe seeing a thunderstorm at this point? i reeeeaaalllyyyyy wanna see one.
February 28, 2008 10:00 PM
 

radman22 said:

Thanks for keeping us updated all day.    Will you be doing the weather this weekend on air Jeff?    We always see you working hard in the background.  

I am going to enjoy the next few days and soak up the early spring teaser.    This should be a wild ride this month, whatever type the precip is.     From Severe weather to more snow, it will be a March to remember!
February 28, 2008 10:05 PM
 

KSuds said:

Thanx for the update. **** Is there any chance of some snowflakes on Monday? There is a chance but there is a better chance if you live southeast of Kansas City.  Brett
February 29, 2008 5:52 AM
 

bulldog said:

What are the chances that cold front doesn't quite make it here first of next week?  I would be okay with spring popping up now. ****** Oh, it makes it here but it may hold off long enough on Sunday to allow us to make it up to 67.  Next week, it gets cold and there are a couple chances of snow showers.  Brett
February 29, 2008 6:20 AM
 

kcroyals05 said:

Good morning Brett.    With the front approaching and temp's near 70, what are the chances that we see Thuderstorms on Sunday afternoon and night?

Bill ***** I think they are likely, considering dew points are surging Sunday morning and afternoon.  I don't think the dynamics are coming together for severe weather.

Brett

February 29, 2008 6:57 AM
 

irishrover said:

Good Morning!
  It will be nice to see some decent RAIN to wash away a lot of the sand and salt and grime left on the road and sidewalks.   Do the systems showing up toward the middle/end of next week look like they have potential to be snow makers, ice makers or just rain?

Mary
February 29, 2008 7:07 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

I hope Marceline will be able to get a good soaking out of this storm.
February 29, 2008 7:36 AM
 

Scott said:

This will be largely a SE event.  The metro will catch some nice rain, but no where near an inch in my opinion based on my analysis.  The cutoff will be very sharp as shown.

Maybe .25-.50 KCI around KCI and .50 to 1 inch more as you go south and east.  Those in the SE outlying areas could see over an inch.

In re-reading the above entry, I guess we are largely inline.
February 29, 2008 8:16 AM
 

4caster said:

Folks, I am still persuaded for the 55 day repetition from January 7th for this weekend's storm.  Maybe I'm not looking at the entire Big picture, but I'm just seeing the similarities jump out; big warm up, lots of moisture coming up, and a strong cold front to mix everything up.  Nothing this past week really didn't compare to this.  
So that is why I include a +/- 2 day margin of error to 54 days.  Maybe this goes against Gary, but I would like to see how this ends up at the end of the season and then we will compare.  Remember, to perfect a theory, we must test the heck out of it, tear it apart, and put it back together as it was described to us.  That's just the scientist in me talking!!
  **** There are a lot of similiarities. ****
February 29, 2008 8:41 AM
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