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Heavy Rains Headed For Southern Missouri

Good morning bloggers,

    I thought I would do a blog here on the weatherblog and give Gary a break this morning.  I've got a couple things to talk about.  The rain headed our way and a reminder to vote for me as "Funniest Weatherperson."

   First up, the forecast.  Today looks nice we should be able to make it into the mid 50s with southerly winds and mid-level clouds streaming in this afternoon.  What about tomorrow?  Will we see rain?  Yes, it will rain but how much?  Below is the 500mb chart from the overnight model runs.

 

The Jet Stream is flowing west to east so a warm front to our south is likely to stay stalled there.  Notice the two Xs.  They represent waves in the atmosphere or areas where the air is rising.  If we are going to get measureable rainfall, it will come from the X that is fartherst north.  The way it stood this morning we would get a tenth to a quarter inch of rain here in metro KC and northern Missouri.  The X, farther south, over Texas will spread heavy rain over southern Missouri, northwest Arkansas.  The potential for flooding is there.

  

     Also keep voting for me at www.rightbetweentheears.com I competed against other KC weather personalities in a battle of comedy Saturday night during a live broadcast of Right Between the Ears.

Have a great day, Gary will update the blog later today.

Brett 

Published Wednesday, April 02, 2008 4:54 AM by wxman5

Comments

 

f00dl3 said:

This is starting to look like a drought pattern. Most of the storm systems went just to our north during the winter, but we did get dinged by some. All the storm systems look to stay just to our south through the spring... with us just getting a bit of moisture. Bring on the summer pattern with high temperatures and less precipitation.... I see where this is going.

-----------------

Hold on, just be patient.  This pattern will very likely produce average to above average rainfall.  Let's see how we feel at the end of this month.

Gary

April 2, 2008 6:30 AM
 

MikeTrainor1 said:

Where can we hear the routine you did Brett? Is it archived on RBTE's site? (I'll check there.) Incidentally, my wife and know John J. of that group. Good friend. Does alot of the V-O work for our public television station. Have a good one! - Mike **** Mike, visit www.rightbetweentheears.com  it is right on their front page.  Click on it and there will be audio files to listen to.  Brett
April 2, 2008 6:32 AM
 

RDub said:

Oh please. A "drought pattern"? We got "dinged by some" storms? We're 1.8" ahead of average for precip at KCI for 2008. Soil moisture is still above average. That's an awful long way from a drought.
April 2, 2008 7:43 AM
 

N2mountains said:

This pattern would be nice in the summer from the standpoint that the warm fronts stall in southern Mo. and we could stay on the cooler side of the fence? But rain would be a welcomed situation in the metro.
April 2, 2008 7:44 AM
 

frigate said:

Yes, we are still ahead on yearly rainfall, but if this current pattern continues through April and May, we will quickly fall behind. I'm afraid if the KC area at least doesn't get some beneficail rain tomorrow, I will have to pull out the sprinkler to water the fertlizer I put down 2 weeks ago, the has yet to be rained on. It is amazing however, that so much flooding is going on only 100-150 miles to our south.

-----------------

It would be sad to have to water.  This pattern is still very active, and once the Gulf of Mexico air gets here we will start getting hit again.

Gary

April 2, 2008 8:20 AM
 

Tinpusher said:

I don't think there will be a drought either, we just need that southern jet to push further north and I believe we'll get our fair share, in just a few weeks I would guess.  Just my humble opinion.
April 2, 2008 9:28 AM
 

RDub said:

Well, obviously, if it never rains in April and May we will be in trouble. But there's no reason to assume that will happen based on a brief dry spell in late March and early April.

Remember, it was just 2 weeks ago, St. Patricks Day, that KCI set a record for daily rainfall with 1.37 inches. That broke a record set back in 1905. That's more than just getting "dinged" by storms. Unless you put down fertilizer, there is no reason to water.
April 2, 2008 9:29 AM
 

kurt said:

This seems to be familiar to the region that the last half of March into mid April are rather dry around these parts.  Does anyone have data for the last 4 or 5 years?  The last several years right leading up to mushroom season here have turned very dry, regardless of the precipitation patterns leading up to this point.
April 2, 2008 9:36 AM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

TEST---TEST-TEST

I can't comment, I don't think.
April 2, 2008 9:58 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

I have a question? Does anyone know if you can put down both grass seed and lawn fertilizer at the same time? Or is that a big no no!!!? I may do that tonight since tomorrows rains are not gonna be a wash out. Looking forward to some answers.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS
April 2, 2008 10:02 AM
 

RDub said:

Kurt, this is a good source for recent year info...

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KMCI/2008/3/17/MonthlyHistory.html
April 2, 2008 10:02 AM
 

RDub said:

Monica, yes! Use a starter fertilizer, not a regular one. And don't add any preventers or herbicides along with your seed.
April 2, 2008 10:09 AM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Gary,

It seems like every once in a while, I can't make a comment. I wasn't able to post a comment between 9:36am and 9:58am.
April 2, 2008 10:20 AM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Gary,

It seems like every once in a while, I can't make a comment. I wasn't able to post a comment between 9:36am and 9:58am.
April 2, 2008 10:22 AM
 

Luthur said:

WEather Team -

After watching this guy, I don't think you guys are nearly animated enough.

http://slatev.com/player.html?id=1482435117
April 2, 2008 10:45 AM
 

Luthur said:

Mama -

I concur with Rdub.  Use a Starter fertilizer.  No fertilizer with weed killer.  You can add the Fert + Weed killer later.  
April 2, 2008 10:47 AM
 

kurt said:

Thanks for the link RDub.  It looks like we will just have to see how this develops, while it's been an active weather pattern, it sure has changed here this month from what we have been having.
April 2, 2008 11:13 AM
 

Brocksmama said:

Man I don't think I could take much of the manic weather dude!!  He wears me out just watching him!  Gary is plenty animated enough for me LOL!
April 2, 2008 11:34 AM
 

Barbara said:

That weather guy stresses me out.  LOL!!!
April 2, 2008 11:38 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

RDub and Luther...thank you!! I was pretty sure that I could but was not 100%....however I would of bought the weed killer part, so I am glad I asked and you all replied. LOL!! :o) Guess I will be busy this evening now. I need the exercise though.
Monica
April 2, 2008 12:43 PM
 

kw_jw174 said:

That picture of Brett looks like a baseball card.  That would be too cool if you all had your own personal "baseball" cards.  Good luck Brett.

Keri
April 2, 2008 2:44 PM
 

twister11 said:

Looks like more active weather coming up next week on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. GFS has been advertising a big storm around here for a few days now.
April 2, 2008 2:47 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Ah Twister11 a week is a long time.  I bet by Saturday GFS is telling a different story.  By the way you asked about a weather site so you could see wind velocity.  Let me know what part of the KC or surrounding area you are in and I can give you a URL to go and access the monitor closest to you.
April 2, 2008 3:00 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Let's see what happens over the next few days. :)  Gary, what is your thinking over the next few days?

Kristi
April 2, 2008 3:18 PM
 

GaryB said:

There is no drought, just simply a break as the storms continue to split just above us and below us much like 1993.    For LRC fans, 57 days ago tomorrow, we had 1.57" of rain.    
April 2, 2008 3:21 PM
 

twister11 said:

davidmcg,
There will likely be a storm next week. Also, I have a web site for wind velocity. Thanks though.
April 2, 2008 4:08 PM
 

twister11 said:

OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THOSE TIME PERIODS. AT THIS TIME
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE STORM SYSTEMS
PRECLUDE US FROM SAYING IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY OF THESE SYSTEM...SO INTERESTED PARTIES ARE ENCOURAGED
TO WATCH LATER OUTLOOK STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

Additional references and information to what I said earlier.
7 days away is not that risky of a prediction. Gary has a 7 day outlook on his weathercast. He wouldnt do that if he didnt feel comforatable predicting that far out.

-----------------

Next week has to be watched closely.  And, we are almost to the time of the year where every storm will have the potential for severe weather.  I wouldn't say we are there yet though.

Gary

April 2, 2008 4:43 PM
 

LVStormSpotter said:

Luther, I couldnt stand watching a meteorologist like that on tv. It would drive me crazy.

I personally hope to be a meteorologist and if I do decide to do broadcast I would never think about acting that way.

I think that would cause most viewers to change the channel
April 2, 2008 4:49 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

I think otehrwise might be a clue to the chance of those storms not happening.
April 2, 2008 4:50 PM
 

ethalo said:

Here we go doing the splits again tomorrow. But maybe next week will be more generous? Our fertilizer needs that rain. RAIN DANCE !

--------------

As big as that storm looks for next week, it doesn't appear to be a generous rain producer.  But, it's a long ways off.

Gary

April 2, 2008 6:12 PM
 

Hamons Custom Landscaping said:

For seeding in the Spring and adding fertilizer at the same time.  Be careful using a starter fertilizer when you fertilize in the Spring -- they tend to be very high in nitrogen and will cause too much growth in the spring.  This leads to disease problems very quickly.

www.hamonslandscaping.com/wordpress
April 2, 2008 6:28 PM
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